Sebastien Boucher

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2008 Forecast

(projection generated 3/18/08 7:08 AM)

																-- Equivalents --
Percentile	PA	R	2B	3B	HR	RBI	BB	SO	SB	CS	EqBRR	AVG	OBP	SLG	MLVr	AVG	OBP	SLG	EqA	VORP	Defense	WARP
90^o	561	79	25	4	5	38	60	120	22	7	2.5	.255	.340	.352	-.103	.257	.343	.374	.264	5.5	132-CF -3	3.6
75^o	531	67	21	4	4	34	54	116	20	6	2.3	.243	.325	.329	-.165	.246	.329	.350	.251	-3.0	125-CF -3	2.7
60^o	504	57	18	3	3	31	49	112	18	6	2.1	.233	.312	.310	-.219	.236	.315	.330	.239	-9.6	119-CF -3	2.0
50^o	489	53	17	3	3	29	46	110	17	6	2.0	.228	.305	.300	-.248	.230	.308	.319	.233	-12.8	115-CF -4	1.6
40^o	469	47	15	3	2	27	43	107	16	5	1.8	.221	.296	.287	-.283	.224	.299	.305	.224	-16.5	111-CF -4	1.2
25^o	451	42	13	3	2	25	40	104	15	5	1.7	.215	.288	.275	-.316	.218	.291	.293	.216	-19.5	107-CF -4	0.8
10^o	380	28	8	2	1	18	29	92	11	4	1.3	.195	.260	.236	-.427	.197	.263	.251	.186	-27.1	91-CF -4	-0.3
Weighted Mean	504	55	17	3	3	30	48	113	18	6	1.9	.228	.306	.300	-.246	.231	.309	.320	.233	-13.4	119-CF -4	2.0

Diagnostics

Breakout Rate	Improve Rate	Collapse Rate	Attrition Rate	Beta
38%	63%	19%	11%	0.75

Seven-Year Forecast

																-- Equivalents --
Year	PA	R	2B	3B	HR	RBI	BB	SO	SB	CS	EqBRR	AVG	OBP	SLG	MLVr	AVG	OBP	SLG	EqA	VORP	Defense	WARP
2008 (age 26)	504	55	17	3	3	30	48	113	18	6	1.9	.228	.306	.300	-.246	.231	.309	.320	.233	-13.4	119-CF -4	2.0
2009 (age 27)	470	53	17	3	3	31	49	104	18	6	1.4	.235	.318	.309	-.209	.241	.326	.335	.242	-5.6	111-CF -3	1.6
2010 (age 28)	422	43	15	2	3	26	41	95	14	5	1.1	.227	.307	.304	-.239	.233	.315	.330	.234	-6.8	101-CF -4	1.1
2011 (age 29)	441	45	15	2	2	29	42	91	15	6	0.6	.229	.307	.294	-.250	.236	.316	.319	.231	-4.6	105-CF -3	0.7
2012 (age 30)	-- out of baseball --
2013 (age 31)	-- out of baseball --
2014 (age 32)	-- out of baseball --

Platoon

Platoon	AVG	OBP	SLG
vs LHP	.203	.281	.248
vs RHP	.236	.317	.326
Split	-.033	-.035	-.078
LgAvg	-.035	-.040	-.079

Valuation

Year	OWARP	DWARP	Tot WARP	MORP	SuperVORP	Upside
2008	0.2	1.8	2.0	$2,325,000	-10.3	0.1
2009	0.4	1.2	1.6	$1,825,000	-3.5	1.4
2010	0.1	0.9	1.1	$1,275,000	-5.5	0.2
2011	0.1	0.6	0.7	$875,000	-3.3	0.4
2012	0.1	0.4	0.5	$700,000	-1.9	0.2
2013	0.1	0.3	0.4	$675,000	-1.8	0.0
2014	0.1	0.3	0.4	$725,000	-0.5	0.0
Peak			6.2	$4,775,000	0.0	2.3

Stars & Scrubs Chart

Career Path Analysis

Seven-Year Performance

Year	75%	50%	25%	Weighted Mean
2008	.251	.233	.216	.233
2009	.255	.241	.230	.242
2010	.242	.229	.208	.234
2011	.245	.229	.207	.231
2012	-- out of baseball --
2013	-- out of baseball --
2014	-- out of baseball --

Seven-Year Attrition

Year	Attrition Rate	Drop Rate	Breakout
2008	11%	0%	38%
2009	37%	21%	52%
2010	48%	35%	32%
2011	70%	57%	25%
2012	82%	72%	22%
2013	79%	73%	17%
2014	88%	85%	13%

Player Comments

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2006

A 7^th-round pick out of Bethune-Cookman College in 2004, Boucher showed the requisite dominance you`d expect from a college-trained player in the low minors. He`ll need to move quickly to make it to The Show. The 26-4 SB rate lends some credence to his speedy reputation as well as his baseball smarts, which he`ll need to leverage to overcome the lack of power. He`s Jamal Strong with a French-Canadian accent.

																		-- Equivalents --
Year	Tm	Lg	PA	R	2B	3B	HR	RBI	BB	SO	SB	CS	EqBRR	AVG	OBP	SLG	MLVr	AVG	OBP	SLG	EqA	VORP	Defense	WARP
2005	WIS	1B	208	37	14	2	2	31	26	34	11	1	1.2	.326	.411	.461	.275	.259	.329	.373	.253	-3.8	22-LF 1	1.1
2005	SBR	1C	255	54	14	3	2	21	36	49	15	3	4.1	.352	.453	.474	.330	.239	.333	.333	.246	-2.3	33-CF -4	1.1
2006	SAN	2A	494	60	9	6	1	29	65	91	26	9	2.3	.248	.351	.305	-.090	.219	.311	.270	.219	-24.1	104-CF 12	1.3
2007	WTN	2A	269	37	9	2	1	11	34	53	13	7	2.5	.219	.325	.289	-.169	.196	.288	.255	.201	-18.6	34-CF 4	0.2
2007	TAC	3A	99	16	4	0	1	12	14	15	3	3	1.2	.298	.398	.381	.110	.271	.367	.341	.253	1.6	14-CF 1	0.5
2007	NOR	3A	96	13	2	0	1	11	10	20	3	2	0.0	.217	.302	.277	-.171	.202	.289	.262	.205	-6.2	18-CF 1	0.1

Historical Stats