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He's probably very handsome. Aaron Bates
Boston Red Sox [ Team Audit ] [ Depth Chart ]
First Base
Bats R
Age 24
6' 4"
232 lbs.

Player Profile

Sections
Historical Stats | 2008 Forecast | Diagnostics | Seven-Year Forecast | Valuation | Most Comparable Players

Historical Stats

-- Equivalents --
Year Tm Lg PA R 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO SB CS EqBRR AVG OBP SLG MLVr AVG OBP SLG EqA VORP Defense WARP
2006 LOW 1A 117 17 8 0 3 14 9 21 2 1 -0.6 .360 .436 .530 .494 .255 .316 .406 .250 -1.2 26-1B 1 0.6
2006 GRN 1B 174 13 7 0 4 16 17 26 0 0 -0.3 .270 .351 .395 .064 .222 .282 .329 .215 -10.0 42-1B 1 0.4
2007 LNC 1C 465 89 21 2 24 88 69 83 0 1 -1.2 .332 .456 .592 .378 .263 .369 .443 .283 15.1 86-1B 9 4.1
2007 PME 2A 112 16 9 0 4 13 17 29 0 0 0.2 .198 .348 .429 .012 .191 .321 .415 .256 -1.3 23-1B 0 0.5


EQA Distribution
Seven-Year WARP

2008 Forecast

 (projection generated 3/18/08 6:12 AM)
-- Equivalents --
Percentile PA R 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO SB CS EqBRR AVG OBP SLG MLVr AVG OBP SLG EqA VORP Defense WARP
90o 624 85 40 1 20 92 67 138 2 2 -0.8 .279 .365 .470 .108 .271 .361 .480 .293 23.5 146-1B 3 4.8
75o 573 66 34 1 16 76 57 130 2 2 -0.7 .260 .343 .427 .002 .253 .339 .436 .273 7.3 134-1B 3 3.3
60o 553 60 31 1 14 71 53 127 2 2 -0.7 .253 .335 .410 -.038 .246 .331 .419 .265 1.8 130-1B 3 2.8
50o 538 55 29 1 13 66 51 125 2 2 -0.7 .248 .329 .398 -.068 .241 .325 .407 .259 -2.1 126-1B 3 2.4
40o 515 49 27 1 12 60 47 121 2 2 -0.6 .241 .319 .380 -.111 .234 .316 .389 .251 -7.3 121-1B 3 1.9
25o 492 43 24 1 10 54 43 117 2 2 -0.6 .233 .311 .363 -.153 .227 .307 .371 .242 -11.8 116-1B 3 1.4
10o 449 34 20 1 8 44 37 109 2 2 -0.5 .221 .295 .333 -.227 .215 .292 .340 .225 -18.7 107-1B 3 0.7
Weighted Mean 561 60 31 1 14 70 53 130 2 2 -0.7 .250 .330 .402 -.059 .243 .327 .410 .261 -2.3 132-1B 4 2.9

Diagnostics

Breakout Rate Improve Rate Collapse Rate Attrition Rate Beta

15%

43%

23%

11%

0.88

Seven-Year Forecast

-- Equivalents --
Year PA R 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO SB CS EqBRR AVG OBP SLG MLVr AVG OBP SLG EqA VORP Defense WARP
2008 (age 24) 561 60 31 1 14 70 53 130 2 2 -0.7 .250 .330 .402 -.059 .243 .327 .410 .261 -2.3 132-1B 4 2.9
2009 (age 25) 587 66 32 1 15 76 56 133 2 2 -0.7 .257 .337 .413 -.029 .253 .338 .429 .266 2.8 137-1B 5 3.1
2010 (age 26) 427 43 24 1 11 55 42 92 2 1 -0.5 .258 .343 .419 -.010 .254 .345 .435 .271 3.4 102-1B 2 2.2
2011 (age 27) 546 63 31 1 15 76 55 120 2 2 -0.5 .261 .346 .428 .010 .258 .348 .445 .275 4.9 128-1B 4 2.2
2012 (age 28) 585 71 30 1 17 80 63 125 2 2 -0.4 .260 .351 .425 .013 .257 .353 .442 .276 4.3 137-1B 2 1.8
2013 (age 29) 555 62 27 1 17 83 57 121 2 2 -0.4 .252 .334 .419 -.029 .249 .335 .436 .267 1.5 130-1B 2 1.6
2014 (age 30) 353 31 17 1 10 52 37 66 2 1 -0.3 .251 .334 .403 -.050 .248 .336 .419 .263 0.2 85-1B 1 1.4

Platoon

Platoon AVG OBP SLG
vs LHP .265 .345 .426
vs RHP .245 .324 .386
Split +.020 +.021 +.040
LgAvg +.020 +.024 +.038

Valuation

Year OWARP DWARP Tot WARP MORP SuperVORP Upside
2008 1.6 1.3 2.9 $4,300,000 3.8 2.6
2009 1.9 1.2 3.1 $5,725,000 9.4 6.0
2010 1.4 0.8 2.2 $4,125,000 7.2 5.3
2011 1.5 0.7 2.2 $4,600,000 8.1 7.6
2012 1.3 0.5 1.8 $3,950,000 6.3 5.4
2013 1.1 0.5 1.6 $3,175,000 3.5 5.7
2014 0.7 0.7 1.4 $2,450,000 1.4 3.5
Peak 13.8 $19,825,000 38.2 33.5


Stars & Scrubs Chart
Career Path Analysis


Seven-Year Performance
Year 75% 50% 25% Weighted Mean
2008 .273 .259 .242 .261
2009 .281 .264 .242 .266
2010 .282 .262 .244 .271
2011 .290 .262 .242 .275
2012 .286 .266 .243 .276
2013 .287 .257 .235 .267
2014 .287 .248 .227 .263


Seven-Year Attrition
Year Attrition Rate Drop Rate Breakout
2008 11% 0% 15%
2009 16% 5% 27%
2010 42% 19% 25%
2011 46% 35% 23%
2012 56% 45% 19%
2013 62% 47% 17%
2014 77% 55% 18%

Most Comparable Players

Similarity Index

54

Do the years for these comparables look wrong? They are wrong!
Click here for the scoop. We'll have this fixed as soon as we can.
Rank Hitter Year Score Trend Rank Hitter Year Score Trend
1 Larry Broadway 1992 40 11 Justin Huber 2003 33
2 Vito Chiaravalloti 1979 36 12 Bucky Jacobsen 1971 33
3 James Bonnici 1981 36 13 Doug Gredvig 1982 33
4 Nate Espy 1970 36 14 Tom Evans 1960 33
5 Jeffrey Larish 1973 35 15 Jason Giambi 2007 32
6 Jason Hart 1992 35 16 Chris Iannetta 1975 32
7 Travis Hafner 1975 34 17 Chris Ashby 1969 32
8 Eddy Furniss 1975 34 18 Brad Hawpe 2000 31
9 Steve Cox 1957 34 19 Paul Carey 1979 30
10 Jeff Bailey 1998 33 20 A.J. Hinch 2005 30

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