Andrew Barb

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Historical Stats | 2008 Forecast | Diagnostics | Seven-Year Forecast | Most Comparable Pitchers

Historical Stats

																		-- Equivalents --
Year	Tm	Lg	W	L	SV	G	GS	IP	H	BB	SO	HR	GB%	BABIP	Stuff	WHIP	ERA	PERA	ERA	H9	BB9	K9	HR9	VORP	WXRL	WARP
2005	BAT	1A	3	2	0	11	11	64.0	59	27	57	7	44%	.301	-40	1.34	3.23	10.29	8.03	11.3	7.9	3.6	3.2	-14.2		-0.7
2006	LWD	1B	6	2	18	38	0	60.0	35	28	71	0	52%	.250	-10	1.05	2.25	4.76	4.70	7.4	6.9	6.0	0.5	5.4		2.2
2007	MRN	0R	0	0	0	2	0	3.0	6	0	5	0	20%	.600	-45	2.00	12.00	24.61	27.00	27.0	3.9	7.7	0.0	-5.5		-0.3
2007	WIS	1B	3	1	10	32	0	38.7	25	14	55	4	49%	.259	-15	1.01	2.33	7.05	5.73	9.0	6.3	7.4	2.5	-0.5		0.6

EQA Distribution

Seven-Year WARP

2008 Forecast

(projection generated 3/17/08 6:20 AM)

																-- Equivalents --
Percentile	W	L	SV	G	GS	IP	H	BB	SO	HR	GB%	BABIP	Stuff	WHIP	ERA	PERA	ERA	H9	BB9	K9	HR9	VORP	WXRL	WARP
90^o	3	5	1	31	8	71.3	66	50	58	7	46%	.285	-3	1.62	4.37	4.96	4.46	8.1	5.7	6.3	0.9	9.2	1.1	1.6
75^o	3	5	1	30	7	66.3	67	50	53	9	45%	.296	-9	1.76	5.36	5.79	5.43	8.8	6.2	6.3	1.2	0.6	0.3	0.7
60^o	2	5	0	29	7	62.7	67	51	50	10	45%	.305	-13	1.87	6.13	6.44	6.19	9.4	6.6	6.2	1.4	-5.3	-0.3	0.1
50^o	2	5	0	28	7	60.7	67	51	49	11	45%	.310	-16	1.93	6.58	6.82	6.64	9.7	6.8	6.2	1.6	-8.5	-0.5	-0.2
40^o	2	5	0	27	7	56.7	66	50	45	11	45%	.319	-21	2.05	7.50	7.54	7.54	10.3	7.3	6.2	1.8	-14.3	-1.1	-0.8
25^o	1	4	0	25	6	52.3	65	49	42	12	45%	.328	-26	2.17	8.58	8.25	8.63	10.9	7.7	6.2	2.1	-20.3	-1.6	-1.4
10^o	1	4	0	21	5	47.0	48	37	38	7	44%	.299	-18	1.80	10.79	6.02	11.86	9.0	6.4	6.3	1.3	-37.0	-3.1	-2.9
Weighted Mean	2	4	0	26	6	55.0	60	46	44	9	45%	.310	-16	1.93	6.64	6.79	6.71	9.6	6.8	6.2	1.6	-8.3	-0.5	-0.1

Diagnostics

Breakout Rate	Improve Rate	Collapse Rate	Attrition Rate	Beta
24%	52%	30%	14%	1.31

Seven-Year Forecast

																-- Equivalents --
Year	W	L	SV	G	GS	IP	H	BB	SO	HR	GB%	BABIP	Stuff	WHIP	ERA	PERA	ERA	H9	BB9	K9	HR9	VORP	WXRL	WARP
2008 (age 23)	2	4	0	26	6	55.0	60	46	44	9	45%	.310	-16	1.93	6.64	6.79	6.71	9.6	6.8	6.2	1.6	-8.3	-0.5	-0.1
2009 (age 24)	2	5	1	29	6	62.7	68	45	52	10	46%	.311	-11	1.80	6.12	6.15	6.21	9.5	5.9	6.4	1.4	-3.5	-0.3	0.1
2010 (age 25)	3	5	1	29	7	64.7	68	46	53	9	45%	.307	-9	1.76	5.57	5.87	5.64	9.2	5.8	6.4	1.3	-0.5	0.1	0.3
2011 (age 26)	2	4	1	28	6	58.7	62	40	45	8	44%	.303	-11	1.72	5.47	5.71	5.56	9.2	5.5	5.9	1.2	-0.2	0.2	0.3
2012 (age 27)	-- out of baseball --
2013 (age 28)	-- out of baseball --
2014 (age 29)	-- out of baseball --

Platoon

Platoon	AVG	OBP	SLG
vs LHB	.260	.412	.433
vs RHB	.250	.372	.395
Split	+.010	+.040	+.039
LgAvg	+.009	+.034	+.039

Valuation

Year	WARP	MORP	Mean VORP	Upside
2008	0.0	$400,000	-7.7	2.0
2009	0.1	$425,000	-3.2	1.5
2010	0.3	$525,000	-0.3	1.3
2011	0.3	$500,000	0.0	1.1
2012	0.3	$675,000	0.7	1.9
2013	0.2	$600,000	0.6	0.8
2014	0.3	$950,000	1.8	1.5
Peak	1.6	$1,225,000	4.6	8.7

Stars & Scrubs Chart

Career Path Analysis

Seven-Year Performance

Year	75%	50%	25%	Weighted Mean
2008	5.43	6.64	8.63	6.71
2009	4.60	6.54	7.85	6.21
2010	4.35	4.96	6.50	5.64
2011	4.42	5.46	8.02	5.56
2012	-- out of baseball --
2013	-- out of baseball --
2014	-- out of baseball --

Seven-Year Attrition

Year	Attrition Rate	Drop Rate	Breakout
2008	14%	0%	24%
2009	43%	35%	26%
2010	59%	55%	28%
2011	67%	61%	27%
2012	78%	72%	23%
2013	85%	82%	17%
2014	93%	84%	16%

Most Comparable Pitchers

Similarity Index

66

Rank	Pitcher	Year	Score	Trend	Rank	Pitcher	Year	Score	Trend
1	JOHN HRUSOVSKY	1994	63		11	Matt Elliott	2007	54
2	Robert Donnelly	1997	62		12	Kyle Wilson	2007	54
3	Matt Vorwald	2003	59		13	Heath Bell	2001	54
4	PAUL GIBBS	1993	58		14	Kyle Jackson	2007	53
5	Carlos Chavez	1996	57		15	Mike Natale	2003	52
6	Charlie Brown	1997	55		16	Bert Snow	2000	52
7	JIM DILLON	1992	55		17	Bryan Leach	2001	52
8	Patrick Overholt	2007	55		18	John Fritz	1992	51
9	Archie Vazquez	1996	55		19	Michael Walter	1998	51
10	Ozzie Lugo	2004	55		20	Will McCrotty	2003	50

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