Collin Balester

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Historical Stats | 2008 Forecast | Diagnostics | Seven-Year Forecast | Most Comparable Pitchers | Player Comments

Projected Playing Time
Nationals Depth Chart (updated: 04-24)

Pos Name IP GS ERA WHIP H BB HR SO W L SV VORP

Spot Collin Balester 50 9 5.42 1.56 55 22 8 31 2 3 0 -0.2

2008 Forecast

(projection generated 3/17/08 6:18 AM)

																-- Equivalents --
Percentile	W	L	SV	G	GS	IP	H	BB	SO	HR	GB%	BABIP	Stuff	WHIP	ERA	PERA	ERA	H9	BB9	K9	HR9	VORP	WXRL	WARP
90^o	9	7	0	23	23	136.7	133	54	97	17	42%	.278	12	1.37	3.78	4.58	4.09	8.6	3.2	5.7	1.1	27.0	3.7	3.9
75^o	7	8	0	22	22	127.3	132	54	86	18	42%	.286	7	1.45	4.49	5.14	4.85	9.1	3.4	5.4	1.2	14.0	2.4	2.6
60^o	6	8	0	22	22	120.7	130	53	78	19	42%	.291	3	1.52	5.02	5.56	5.41	9.5	3.6	5.2	1.4	5.5	1.5	1.7
50^o	6	8	0	21	21	115.0	129	52	72	19	42%	.296	0	1.57	5.47	5.92	5.89	9.9	3.7	5.1	1.5	-1.1	0.8	1.0
40^o	5	8	0	21	21	110.3	127	51	67	20	42%	.299	-3	1.62	5.87	6.24	6.30	10.2	3.8	4.9	1.6	-6.4	0.2	0.5
25^o	4	8	0	20	20	101.3	124	50	58	20	42%	.306	-9	1.71	6.62	6.84	7.09	10.8	4.0	4.6	1.7	-15.1	-0.7	-0.5
10^o	3	8	0	18	18	87.7	116	47	45	20	42%	.317	-18	1.85	7.85	7.82	8.39	11.7	4.3	4.1	2.0	-26.1	-1.9	-1.7
Weighted Mean	6	9	0	23	23	125.7	140	57	79	21	42%	.295	0	1.56	5.42	5.87	5.83	9.8	3.7	5.1	1.4	-0.4	0.9	0.9

Diagnostics

Breakout Rate	Improve Rate	Collapse Rate	Attrition Rate	Beta
24%	55%	17%	13%	1.35

Seven-Year Forecast

																-- Equivalents --
Year	W	L	SV	G	GS	IP	H	BB	SO	HR	GB%	BABIP	Stuff	WHIP	ERA	PERA	ERA	H9	BB9	K9	HR9	VORP	WXRL	WARP
2008 (age 22)	6	9	0	23	23	125.7	140	57	79	21	42%	.295	0	1.56	5.42	5.87	5.83	9.8	3.7	5.1	1.4	-0.4	0.9	0.9
2009 (age 23)	5	8	0	26	18	108.0	118	46	70	18	42%	.291	-4	1.51	5.33	5.69	5.74	9.6	3.5	5.3	1.5	0.7	0.8	0.8
2010 (age 24)	5	7	0	28	16	103.3	116	44	66	18	41%	.296	-6	1.54	5.50	5.87	5.91	9.9	3.5	5.2	1.5	-1.0	0.5	0.6
2011 (age 25)	5	7	1	31	14	101.7	111	37	71	17	41%	.295	-1	1.44	5.07	5.35	5.47	9.6	2.9	5.6	1.4	2.8	1.0	0.9
2012 (age 26)	4	6	1	27	12	85.7	94	30	59	13	41%	.298	-1	1.44	4.95	5.32	5.34	9.7	2.8	5.6	1.3	3.3	0.9	0.8
2013 (age 27)	3	4	1	25	8	67.0	72	22	44	10	41%	.292	-3	1.41	4.69	5.10	5.07	9.5	2.7	5.3	1.3	4.7	0.8	0.9
2014 (age 28)	2	3	0	20	6	49.3	56	18	32	8	41%	.299	-7	1.48	5.22	5.57	5.62	9.9	3.0	5.2	1.4	1.0	0.3	0.5

Platoon

Platoon	AVG	OBP	SLG
vs LHB	.269	.369	.451
vs RHB	.270	.350	.439
Split	-.000	+.019	+.012
LgAvg	+.009	+.034	+.039

Valuation

Year	WARP	MORP	Mean VORP	Upside
2008	0.9	$950,000	-3.8	4.0
2009	0.8	$950,000	-2.2	3.9
2010	0.6	$725,000	-3.6	3.8
2011	0.9	$1,200,000	0.6	4.5
2012	0.8	$1,400,000	1.5	2.2
2013	0.9	$1,925,000	3.1	3.9
2014	0.5	$775,000	-0.5	2.6
Peak	5.0	$3,800,000	5.3	22.3

Stars & Scrubs Chart

Career Path Analysis

Seven-Year Performance

Year	75%	50%	25%	Weighted Mean
2008	4.85	5.89	7.09	5.83
2009	4.79	5.70	7.57	5.74
2010	4.79	5.99	7.41	5.91
2011	4.63	5.90	6.82	5.47
2012	4.59	5.33	6.93	5.34
2013	4.06	5.17	6.49	5.07
2014	4.30	5.76	8.76	5.62

Seven-Year Attrition

Year	Attrition Rate	Drop Rate	Breakout
2008	13%	0%	24%
2009	20%	7%	24%
2010	33%	12%	21%
2011	39%	22%	23%
2012	46%	30%	23%
2013	56%	35%	23%
2014	65%	41%	15%

64

Rank	Pitcher	Year	Score	Trend	Rank	Pitcher	Year	Score	Trend
1	Sean Douglass	2001	68		11	Hector Trinidad	1995	51
2	Greg Hansell	1993	58		12	Chris Seelbach	1995	51
3	Brian Rose	1998	54		13	Kevin McGlinchy	1999	50
4	Buddy Carlyle	2000	54		14	Hayden Penn	2006	49
5	Ryan Feierabend	2007	53		15	Taylor Buchholz	2003	49
6	Rob Bell	1999	53		16	Beltran Perez	2003	49
7	Ryan Hawblitzel	1993	53		17	Ken Cloude	1997	48
8	Robert Pugmire	2000	53		18	Garrett Stephenson	1994	47
9	Ricky Nolasco	2005	53		19	Dan Wheeler	2000	47
10	Tony Armas	2000	52		20	Doug Johnston	2000	47

Player Comments

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2007

A rangy, long-limbed young surfer dude from SoCal, Balester didn`t embarrass himself in either the Carolina League or Double-A once he ironed out some early mechanical problems. Already dealing in the low-90s with solid command, he`s still working on making a potentially plus curve a more reliable change of pace. He`ll repeat Double-A, probably for a full season, but if he pitches through the next three or four years without injury, he could mature into a solid mid-rotation starter.

2006

A polished California high school pitcher picked in 2004, Balester`s currently the Nationals` best pitching prospect. He`s mostly a fastballer at this point, but improved command of his curve helped him garner his acclaim. His comparables make for interesting reading in that they reflect a group known for their heaters, their promise, and their disappointments. If he becomes consistent with his offspeed stuff, his upside isn`t too far from Floyd`s, but as with previous `best` pitching prospects, notably Everts and Hinckley, he needs to survive before you can consider him a can`t-miss commodity. Nats fans should take a short--we won`t say quick--drive south on I-95 and check him out if he`s pitching in Potomac.

Pos	Name	IP	GS	ERA	WHIP	H	BB	HR	SO	W	L	SV	VORP
Spot	Collin Balester	50	9	5.42	1.56	55	22	8	31	2	3	0	-0.2

																		-- Equivalents --
Year	Tm	Lg	W	L	SV	G	GS	IP	H	BB	SO	HR	GB%	BABIP	Stuff	WHIP	ERA	PERA	ERA	H9	BB9	K9	HR9	VORP	WXRL	WARP
2005	SAV	1B	8	6	0	24	23	125.0	105	42	95	11	43%	.257	-24	1.18	3.67	6.91	7.64	10.2	5.7	3.5	1.9	-24.0		-1.1
2006	POT	1C	4	5	0	23	22	117.2	126	53	87	12	44%	.325	-25	1.53	5.22	8.55	8.28	11.8	5.7	4.1	2.1	-31.1		-1.6
2006	HAR	2A	1	0	0	3	3	19.2	15	6	10	0	46%	.273	-1	1.09	1.88	3.73	3.06	7.6	3.6	2.5	0.0	5.0		0.6
2007	HAR	2A	2	7	0	17	17	98.7	103	25	77	9	46%	.314	1	1.30	3.74	5.68	5.28	10.4	2.9	4.7	1.3	3.3		1.5
2007	COH	3A	2	3	0	10	10	51.7	49	23	40	3	35%	.309	0	1.39	4.18	4.95	5.66	9.3	4.4	4.9	0.7	-0.3		0.6

Projected Playing Time

Historical Stats