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Collin Balester
Washington Nationals [ Team Audit ] [ Depth Chart ]
Pitcher
Throws R
Age 22
6' 5"
190 lbs.

Player Profile

Sections
Historical Stats | 2008 Forecast | Diagnostics | Seven-Year Forecast | Most Comparable Pitchers | Player Comments

Projected Playing Time

Nationals Depth Chart (updated: 04-24)
Pos Name IP GS ERA WHIP H BB HR SO W L SV VORP
Spot Collin Balester 50 9 5.42 1.56 55 22 8 31 2 3 0 -0.2

Historical Stats

-- Equivalents --
Year Tm Lg W L SV G GS IP H BB SO HR GB% BABIP Stuff WHIP ERA PERA ERA H9 BB9 K9 HR9 VORP WXRL WARP
2005 SAV 1B 8 6 0 24 23 125.0 105 42 95 11 43% .257 -24 1.18 3.67 6.91 7.64 10.2 5.7 3.5 1.9 -24.0 -1.1
2006 POT 1C 4 5 0 23 22 117.2 126 53 87 12 44% .325 -25 1.53 5.22 8.55 8.28 11.8 5.7 4.1 2.1 -31.1 -1.6
2006 HAR 2A 1 0 0 3 3 19.2 15 6 10 0 46% .273 -1 1.09 1.88 3.73 3.06 7.6 3.6 2.5 0.0 5.0 0.6
2007 HAR 2A 2 7 0 17 17 98.7 103 25 77 9 46% .314 1 1.30 3.74 5.68 5.28 10.4 2.9 4.7 1.3 3.3 1.5
2007 COH 3A 2 3 0 10 10 51.7 49 23 40 3 35% .309 0 1.39 4.18 4.95 5.66 9.3 4.4 4.9 0.7 -0.3 0.6


EQA Distribution

Seven-Year WARP

2008 Forecast

(projection generated 3/17/08 6:18 AM)
-- Equivalents --
Percentile W L SV G GS IP H BB SO HR GB% BABIP Stuff WHIP ERA PERA ERA H9 BB9 K9 HR9 VORP WXRL WARP
90o 9 7 0 23 23 136.7 133 54 97 17 42% .278 12 1.37 3.78 4.58 4.09 8.6 3.2 5.7 1.1 27.0 3.7 3.9
75o 7 8 0 22 22 127.3 132 54 86 18 42% .286 7 1.45 4.49 5.14 4.85 9.1 3.4 5.4 1.2 14.0 2.4 2.6
60o 6 8 0 22 22 120.7 130 53 78 19 42% .291 3 1.52 5.02 5.56 5.41 9.5 3.6 5.2 1.4 5.5 1.5 1.7
50o 6 8 0 21 21 115.0 129 52 72 19 42% .296 0 1.57 5.47 5.92 5.89 9.9 3.7 5.1 1.5 -1.1 0.8 1.0
40o 5 8 0 21 21 110.3 127 51 67 20 42% .299 -3 1.62 5.87 6.24 6.30 10.2 3.8 4.9 1.6 -6.4 0.2 0.5
25o 4 8 0 20 20 101.3 124 50 58 20 42% .306 -9 1.71 6.62 6.84 7.09 10.8 4.0 4.6 1.7 -15.1 -0.7 -0.5
10o 3 8 0 18 18 87.7 116 47 45 20 42% .317 -18 1.85 7.85 7.82 8.39 11.7 4.3 4.1 2.0 -26.1 -1.9 -1.7
Weighted Mean 6 9 0 23 23 125.7 140 57 79 21 42% .295 0 1.56 5.42 5.87 5.83 9.8 3.7 5.1 1.4 -0.4 0.9 0.9

Diagnostics

Breakout Rate Improve Rate Collapse Rate Attrition Rate Beta

24%

55%

17%

13%

1.35

Seven-Year Forecast

-- Equivalents --
Year W L SV G GS IP H BB SO HR GB% BABIP Stuff WHIP ERA PERA ERA H9 BB9 K9 HR9 VORP WXRL WARP
2008 (age 22) 6 9 0 23 23 125.7 140 57 79 21 42% .295 0 1.56 5.42 5.87 5.83 9.8 3.7 5.1 1.4 -0.4 0.9 0.9
2009 (age 23) 5 8 0 26 18 108.0 118 46 70 18 42% .291 -4 1.51 5.33 5.69 5.74 9.6 3.5 5.3 1.5 0.7 0.8 0.8
2010 (age 24) 5 7 0 28 16 103.3 116 44 66 18 41% .296 -6 1.54 5.50 5.87 5.91 9.9 3.5 5.2 1.5 -1.0 0.5 0.6
2011 (age 25) 5 7 1 31 14 101.7 111 37 71 17 41% .295 -1 1.44 5.07 5.35 5.47 9.6 2.9 5.6 1.4 2.8 1.0 0.9
2012 (age 26) 4 6 1 27 12 85.7 94 30 59 13 41% .298 -1 1.44 4.95 5.32 5.34 9.7 2.8 5.6 1.3 3.3 0.9 0.8
2013 (age 27) 3 4 1 25 8 67.0 72 22 44 10 41% .292 -3 1.41 4.69 5.10 5.07 9.5 2.7 5.3 1.3 4.7 0.8 0.9
2014 (age 28) 2 3 0 20 6 49.3 56 18 32 8 41% .299 -7 1.48 5.22 5.57 5.62 9.9 3.0 5.2 1.4 1.0 0.3 0.5

Platoon

Platoon AVG OBP SLG
vs LHB .269 .369 .451
vs RHB .270 .350 .439
Split -.000 +.019 +.012
LgAvg +.009 +.034 +.039

Valuation

Year WARP MORP Mean VORP Upside
2008 0.9 $950,000 -3.8 4.0
2009 0.8 $950,000 -2.2 3.9
2010 0.6 $725,000 -3.6 3.8
2011 0.9 $1,200,000 0.6 4.5
2012 0.8 $1,400,000 1.5 2.2
2013 0.9 $1,925,000 3.1 3.9
2014 0.5 $775,000 -0.5 2.6
Peak 5.0 $3,800,000 5.3 22.3


Stars & Scrubs Chart

Career Path Analysis


Seven-Year Performance
Year 75% 50% 25% Weighted Mean
2008 4.85 5.89 7.09 5.83
2009 4.79 5.70 7.57 5.74
2010 4.79 5.99 7.41 5.91
2011 4.63 5.90 6.82 5.47
2012 4.59 5.33 6.93 5.34
2013 4.06 5.17 6.49 5.07
2014 4.30 5.76 8.76 5.62


Seven-Year Attrition
Year Attrition Rate Drop Rate Breakout
2008 13% 0% 24%
2009 20% 7% 24%
2010 33% 12% 21%
2011 39% 22% 23%
2012 46% 30% 23%
2013 56% 35% 23%
2014 65% 41% 15%

Most Comparable Pitchers

Similarity Index

64

Rank Pitcher Year Score Trend Rank Pitcher Year Score Trend
1 Sean Douglass 2001 68 11 Hector Trinidad 1995 51
2 Greg Hansell 1993 58 12 Chris Seelbach 1995 51
3 Brian Rose 1998 54 13 Kevin McGlinchy 1999 50
4 Buddy Carlyle 2000 54 14 Hayden Penn 2006 49
5 Ryan Feierabend 2007 53 15 Taylor Buchholz 2003 49
6 Rob Bell 1999 53 16 Beltran Perez 2003 49
7 Ryan Hawblitzel 1993 53 17 Ken Cloude 1997 48
8 Robert Pugmire 2000 53 18 Garrett Stephenson 1994 47
9 Ricky Nolasco 2005 53 19 Dan Wheeler 2000 47
10 Tony Armas 2000 52 20 Doug Johnston 2000 47

Player Comments

Click on the year to report a comment problem (misspelling, premature cutoff, weird characters or rendering, etc.)

2007

A rangy, long-limbed young surfer dude from SoCal, Balester didn`t embarrass himself in either the Carolina League or Double-A once he ironed out some early mechanical problems. Already dealing in the low-90s with solid command, he`s still working on making a potentially plus curve a more reliable change of pace. He`ll repeat Double-A, probably for a full season, but if he pitches through the next three or four years without injury, he could mature into a solid mid-rotation starter.

2006

A polished California high school pitcher picked in 2004, Balester`s currently the Nationals` best pitching prospect. He`s mostly a fastballer at this point, but improved command of his curve helped him garner his acclaim. His comparables make for interesting reading in that they reflect a group known for their heaters, their promise, and their disappointments. If he becomes consistent with his offspeed stuff, his upside isn`t too far from Floyd`s, but as with previous `best` pitching prospects, notably Everts and Hinckley, he needs to survive before you can consider him a can`t-miss commodity. Nats fans should take a short--we won`t say quick--drive south on I-95 and check him out if he`s pitching in Potomac.


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