Nevin Ashley

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Historical Stats | 2009 Forecast | Diagnostics | Seven-Year Forecast | Valuation | Most Comparable Players

Historical Stats

																		-- Equivalents --
Year	Tm	Lg	PA	R	2B	3B	HR	RBI	BB	SO	SB	CS	EqBRR	AVG	OBP	SLG	MLVr	AVG	OBP	SLG	EqA	VORP	Defense	WARP
2006	PRI	Rk	185	25	8	1	4	28	21	40	7	3	-1.1	.333	.440	.477	-.340	.202	.270	.310	.202	-26.2	25-C -2	-1.3
2007	CGA	A	490	76	13	8	12	60	49	92	20	8	0.0	.280	.354	.431	-.340	.206	.265	.316	.205	-32.9	84-C -6	-2.0
2008	VRO	A+	386	37	12	1	4	26	49	79	5	6	-0.9	.235	.348	.315	-.408	.182	.275	.256	.188	-35.1	79-C -7	-2.4

EQA Distribution

Seven-Year WARP

2009 Forecast

(projection generated 3/7/09 11:40 PM)

																-- Equivalents --
Percentile	PA	R	2B	3B	HR	RBI	BB	SO	SB	CS	EqBRR	AVG	OBP	SLG	MLVr	AVG	OBP	SLG	EqA	VORP	Defense	WARP
90^o	401	38	15	2	6	32	38	113	5	2	-0.2	.217	.298	.322	-.234	.221	.302	.338	.228	-6.8	96-C -5	0.8
75^o	389	33	14	2	5	30	34	111	4	2	-0.1	.205	.282	.298	-.303	.208	.285	.314	.213	-12.9	93-C -5	0.1
60^o	376	28	12	2	4	27	31	109	4	2	-0.1	.192	.266	.275	-.372	.195	.269	.290	.196	-18.5	90-C -5	-0.6
50^o	368	26	11	1	4	26	29	108	4	2	-0.1	.186	.257	.264	-.406	.189	.261	.278	.187	-21.0	88-C -6	-0.9
40^o	359	23	10	1	3	24	27	107	4	2	-0.1	.178	.247	.250	-.448	.181	.251	.263	.175	-24.0	86-C -6	-1.3
25^o	344	20	9	1	3	22	25	105	3	2	-0.1	.167	.233	.230	-.507	.170	.236	.242	.157	-27.8	83-C -6	-1.8
10^o	317	15	7	1	2	17	20	100	3	1	-0.1	.152	.212	.201	-.594	.154	.215	.212	.122	-32.1	77-C -6	-2.4
Weighted Mean	378	26	11	1	4	27	30	112	4	2	-0.1	.184	.255	.260	-.411	.186	.258	.273	.184	-22.0	91-C -6	-0.9

Diagnostics

Breakout Rate	Improve Rate	Collapse Rate	Attrition Rate	Beta
26%	39%	45%	12%	1.23

Seven-Year Forecast

																-- Equivalents --
Year	PA	R	2B	3B	HR	RBI	BB	SO	SB	CS	EqBRR	AVG	OBP	SLG	MLVr	AVG	OBP	SLG	EqA	VORP	Defense	WARP
2009 (age 24)	378	26	11	1	4	27	30	112	4	2	-0.1	.184	.255	.260	-.411	.186	.258	.273	.184	-22.0	91-C -6	-0.9
2010 (age 25)	347	24	11	2	4	26	27	103	4	2	-0.1	.186	.259	.273	-.379	.192	.265	.291	.191	-13.9	84-C -5	-0.5
2011 (age 26)	322	22	11	1	4	25	26	91	3	2	0.0	.186	.260	.272	-.377	.192	.267	.289	.192	-9.6	78-C -5	-0.3
2012 (age 27)	264	16	8	1	3	20	22	76	2	1	0.0	.179	.255	.262	-.404	.184	.262	.278	.186	-8.2	65-C -4	-0.3
2013 (age 28)	260	16	9	1	3	18	20	78	3	1	0.0	.183	.258	.271	-.386	.189	.264	.288	.190	-5.7	64-C -3	0.0
2014 (age 29)	261	17	7	1	4	21	20	79	2	1	0.0	.186	.255	.275	-.385	.191	.261	.292	.190	-4.6	64-C -2	0.0
2015 (age 30)	213	14	7	1	3	17	18	59	2	1	0.0	.205	.278	.306	-.286	.211	.286	.325	.214	-2.0	53-C -1	0.1

Platoon

Platoon	AVG	OBP	SLG
vs LHP	.199	.272	.288
vs RHP	.180	.249	.250
Split	+.019	+.023	+.038
LgAvg	+.020	+.024	+.038

Valuation

Year	BRAA	FRAA	Tot WARP	MORP	SuperVORP	Upside
2009	-20.9	-6.0	-0.9	$400,000	-21.9	0.0
2010	-17.1	-5.0	-0.5	$400,000	-13.9	0.1
2011	-15.6	-5.0	-0.3	$400,000	-9.2	0.0
2012	-14.0	-4.0	-0.3	$400,000	-8.3	0.0
2013	-13.0	-3.0	0.0	$400,000	-5.0	0.5
2014	-13.1	-2.0	0.0	$400,000	-3.9	0.3
2015	-6.2	-1.0	0.1	$650,000	-1.4	0.8
Peak			0.1	$75,000	0.0	1.7

Stars & Scrubs Chart

Career Path Analysis

Seven-Year Performance

Year	75%	50%	25%	Weighted Mean
2009	.213	.187	.157	.184
2010	.214	.192	.166	.191
2011	.210	.192	.164	.192
2012	.219	.184	.144	.186
2013	.222	.181	.154	.190
2014	.235	.200	.186	.190
2015	.260	.221	.191	.214

Seven-Year Attrition

Year	Attrition Rate	Drop Rate	Breakout
2009	12%	0%	26%
2010	37%	23%	20%
2011	56%	40%	15%
2012	71%	48%	16%
2013	78%	59%	14%
2014	79%	66%	14%
2015	89%	70%	17%

Most Comparable Players

Similarity Index

66

Rank	Hitter	Year	Score	Trend	Rank	Hitter	Year	Score	Trend
1	Matt Treanor	2001	58		11	Lou Palmisano	2007	49
2	Carl Nichols	1987	55		12	Dan Conway	2004	49
3	Scooter Tucker	1991	55		13	Alberto Concepcion	2006	49
4	Danny Ardoin	1999	55		14	Rick Sellers	1992	48
5	Dusty Wathan	1998	52		15	Mike Daniel	1994	48
6	Paul Bako	1997	51		16	Craig Wilson	1992	48
7	Damian Miller	1994	50		17	Ryan Jorgensen	2004	48
8	Joe Durso	1995	50		18	Jayhawk Owens	1993	48
9	Bradley Davis	2007	50		19	Henry Mercedes	1994	47
10	Pedro Lopez	1994	49		20	Josh Paul	2000	47

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