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He's probably very handsome. Nevin Ashley
Tampa Bay Rays [ Team Audit ] [ Depth Chart ]
Catcher
Bats R
Age 24
6' 2"
210 lbs.

Player Profile

Sections
Historical Stats | 2009 Forecast | Diagnostics | Seven-Year Forecast | Valuation | Most Comparable Players

Historical Stats

-- Equivalents --
Year Tm Lg PA R 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO SB CS EqBRR AVG OBP SLG MLVr AVG OBP SLG EqA VORP Defense WARP
2006 PRI Rk 185 25 8 1 4 28 21 40 7 3 -1.1 .333 .440 .477 -.340 .202 .270 .310 .202 -26.2 25-C -2 -1.3
2007 CGA A 490 76 13 8 12 60 49 92 20 8 0.0 .280 .354 .431 -.340 .206 .265 .316 .205 -32.9 84-C -6 -2.0
2008 VRO A+ 386 37 12 1 4 26 49 79 5 6 -0.9 .235 .348 .315 -.408 .182 .275 .256 .188 -35.1 79-C -7 -2.4


EQA Distribution
Seven-Year WARP

2009 Forecast

 (projection generated 3/7/09 11:40 PM)
-- Equivalents --
Percentile PA R 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO SB CS EqBRR AVG OBP SLG MLVr AVG OBP SLG EqA VORP Defense WARP
90o 401 38 15 2 6 32 38 113 5 2 -0.2 .217 .298 .322 -.234 .221 .302 .338 .228 -6.8 96-C -5 0.8
75o 389 33 14 2 5 30 34 111 4 2 -0.1 .205 .282 .298 -.303 .208 .285 .314 .213 -12.9 93-C -5 0.1
60o 376 28 12 2 4 27 31 109 4 2 -0.1 .192 .266 .275 -.372 .195 .269 .290 .196 -18.5 90-C -5 -0.6
50o 368 26 11 1 4 26 29 108 4 2 -0.1 .186 .257 .264 -.406 .189 .261 .278 .187 -21.0 88-C -6 -0.9
40o 359 23 10 1 3 24 27 107 4 2 -0.1 .178 .247 .250 -.448 .181 .251 .263 .175 -24.0 86-C -6 -1.3
25o 344 20 9 1 3 22 25 105 3 2 -0.1 .167 .233 .230 -.507 .170 .236 .242 .157 -27.8 83-C -6 -1.8
10o 317 15 7 1 2 17 20 100 3 1 -0.1 .152 .212 .201 -.594 .154 .215 .212 .122 -32.1 77-C -6 -2.4
Weighted Mean 378 26 11 1 4 27 30 112 4 2 -0.1 .184 .255 .260 -.411 .186 .258 .273 .184 -22.0 91-C -6 -0.9

Diagnostics

Breakout Rate Improve Rate Collapse Rate Attrition Rate Beta

26%

39%

45%

12%

1.23

Seven-Year Forecast

-- Equivalents --
Year PA R 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO SB CS EqBRR AVG OBP SLG MLVr AVG OBP SLG EqA VORP Defense WARP
2009 (age 24) 378 26 11 1 4 27 30 112 4 2 -0.1 .184 .255 .260 -.411 .186 .258 .273 .184 -22.0 91-C -6 -0.9
2010 (age 25) 347 24 11 2 4 26 27 103 4 2 -0.1 .186 .259 .273 -.379 .192 .265 .291 .191 -13.9 84-C -5 -0.5
2011 (age 26) 322 22 11 1 4 25 26 91 3 2 0.0 .186 .260 .272 -.377 .192 .267 .289 .192 -9.6 78-C -5 -0.3
2012 (age 27) 264 16 8 1 3 20 22 76 2 1 0.0 .179 .255 .262 -.404 .184 .262 .278 .186 -8.2 65-C -4 -0.3
2013 (age 28) 260 16 9 1 3 18 20 78 3 1 0.0 .183 .258 .271 -.386 .189 .264 .288 .190 -5.7 64-C -3 0.0
2014 (age 29) 261 17 7 1 4 21 20 79 2 1 0.0 .186 .255 .275 -.385 .191 .261 .292 .190 -4.6 64-C -2 0.0
2015 (age 30) 213 14 7 1 3 17 18 59 2 1 0.0 .205 .278 .306 -.286 .211 .286 .325 .214 -2.0 53-C -1 0.1

Platoon

Platoon AVG OBP SLG
vs LHP .199 .272 .288
vs RHP .180 .249 .250
Split +.019 +.023 +.038
LgAvg +.020 +.024 +.038

Valuation

Year BRAA FRAA Tot WARP MORP SuperVORP Upside
2009 -20.9 -6.0 -0.9 $400,000 -21.9 0.0
2010 -17.1 -5.0 -0.5 $400,000 -13.9 0.1
2011 -15.6 -5.0 -0.3 $400,000 -9.2 0.0
2012 -14.0 -4.0 -0.3 $400,000 -8.3 0.0
2013 -13.0 -3.0 0.0 $400,000 -5.0 0.5
2014 -13.1 -2.0 0.0 $400,000 -3.9 0.3
2015 -6.2 -1.0 0.1 $650,000 -1.4 0.8
Peak 0.1 $75,000 0.0 1.7


Stars & Scrubs Chart
Career Path Analysis


Seven-Year Performance
Year 75% 50% 25% Weighted Mean
2009 .213 .187 .157 .184
2010 .214 .192 .166 .191
2011 .210 .192 .164 .192
2012 .219 .184 .144 .186
2013 .222 .181 .154 .190
2014 .235 .200 .186 .190
2015 .260 .221 .191 .214


Seven-Year Attrition
Year Attrition Rate Drop Rate Breakout
2009 12% 0% 26%
2010 37% 23% 20%
2011 56% 40% 15%
2012 71% 48% 16%
2013 78% 59% 14%
2014 79% 66% 14%
2015 89% 70% 17%

Most Comparable Players

Similarity Index

66

Rank Hitter Year Score Trend Rank Hitter Year Score Trend
1 Matt Treanor 2001 58 11 Lou Palmisano 2007 49
2 Carl Nichols 1987 55 12 Dan Conway 2004 49
3 Scooter Tucker 1991 55 13 Alberto Concepcion 2006 49
4 Danny Ardoin 1999 55 14 Rick Sellers 1992 48
5 Dusty Wathan 1998 52 15 Mike Daniel 1994 48
6 Paul Bako 1997 51 16 Craig Wilson 1992 48
7 Damian Miller 1994 50 17 Ryan Jorgensen 2004 48
8 Joe Durso 1995 50 18 Jayhawk Owens 1993 48
9 Bradley Davis 2007 50 19 Henry Mercedes 1994 47
10 Pedro Lopez 1994 49 20 Josh Paul 2000 47

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