Jose Arredondo

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2008 Forecast

(projection generated 3/17/08 6:08 AM)

																-- Equivalents --
Percentile	W	L	SV	G	GS	IP	H	BB	SO	HR	GB%	BABIP	Stuff	WHIP	ERA	PERA	ERA	H9	BB9	K9	HR9	VORP	WXRL	WARP
90^o	4	4	1	29	7	68.3	69	33	47	7	45%	.292	0	1.49	4.20	4.48	4.06	8.7	3.9	5.7	0.9	11.0	1.3	1.8
75^o	3	4	1	28	7	64.3	69	35	44	7	45%	.305	-4	1.61	4.97	5.13	4.81	9.2	4.3	5.7	1.0	4.4	0.6	1.2
60^o	3	4	0	27	7	61.0	69	35	42	8	45%	.314	-7	1.71	5.56	5.63	5.38	9.7	4.7	5.7	1.1	-0.2	0.2	0.7
50^o	3	4	0	26	6	58.0	69	36	40	8	45%	.323	-10	1.79	6.11	6.10	5.92	10.1	5.0	5.7	1.3	-4.0	-0.1	0.3
40^o	2	4	0	25	6	55.7	68	36	39	9	45%	.330	-12	1.87	6.59	6.51	6.38	10.5	5.2	5.7	1.4	-7.0	-0.4	0.0
25^o	2	4	0	24	6	50.3	67	37	35	9	45%	.347	-19	2.05	7.76	7.52	7.49	11.4	5.9	5.7	1.6	-13.2	-1.0	-0.7
10^o	1	3	0	20	5	40.7	62	35	28	9	45%	.375	-30	2.38	10.04	9.32	9.70	13.0	7.0	5.8	2.0	-21.9	-1.8	-1.6
Weighted Mean	3	4	0	26	6	58.3	69	36	40	8	45%	.322	-10	1.79	6.09	6.06	5.89	10.1	4.9	5.7	1.2	-3.8	-0.1	0.4

Diagnostics

Breakout Rate	Improve Rate	Collapse Rate	Attrition Rate	Beta
46%	73%	13%	14%	1.17

Seven-Year Forecast

																-- Equivalents --
Year	W	L	SV	G	GS	IP	H	BB	SO	HR	GB%	BABIP	Stuff	WHIP	ERA	PERA	ERA	H9	BB9	K9	HR9	VORP	WXRL	WARP
2008 (age 24)	3	4	0	26	6	58.3	69	36	40	8	45%	.322	-10	1.79	6.09	6.06	5.89	10.1	4.9	5.7	1.2	-3.8	-0.1	0.4
2009 (age 25)	3	4	0	26	6	57.7	68	35	40	8	44%	.323	-10	1.77	6.10	5.94	5.93	10.0	4.9	5.8	1.2	-3.0	-0.1	0.3
2010 (age 26)	3	4	0	26	7	60.7	70	38	43	7	43%	.325	-9	1.78	6.06	5.79	5.91	9.9	5.1	5.9	1.0	-2.3	-0.1	0.2
2011 (age 27)	3	4	0	25	6	56.3	63	35	41	6	44%	.324	-6	1.74	5.71	5.54	5.57	9.6	5.0	6.1	0.9	-0.7	0.1	0.3
2012 (age 28)	-- out of baseball --
2013 (age 29)	-- out of baseball --
2014 (age 30)	-- out of baseball --

Platoon

Platoon	AVG	OBP	SLG
vs LHB	.271	.390	.428
vs RHB	.267	.370	.399
Split	+.003	+.020	+.029
LgAvg	+.009	+.034	+.039

Valuation

Year	WARP	MORP	Mean VORP	Upside
2008	0.4	$550,000	-2.4	2.1
2009	0.3	$500,000	-2.0	1.6
2010	0.2	$475,000	-1.5	1.6
2011	0.3	$500,000	0.0	1.6
2012	0.3	$600,000	0.4	2.2
2013	0.3	$825,000	1.4	1.4
2014	0.3	$975,000	1.8	1.4
Peak	1.7	$1,100,000	3.6	10.5

Stars & Scrubs Chart

Career Path Analysis

Seven-Year Performance

Year	75%	50%	25%	Weighted Mean
2008	4.81	5.92	7.49	5.89
2009	4.95	5.85	7.46	5.93
2010	4.14	5.29	7.71	5.91
2011	4.51	5.66	7.07	5.57
2012	-- out of baseball --
2013	-- out of baseball --
2014	-- out of baseball --

Seven-Year Attrition

Year	Attrition Rate	Drop Rate	Breakout
2008	14%	0%	46%
2009	40%	26%	39%
2010	56%	44%	42%
2011	69%	58%	35%
2012	76%	70%	27%
2013	89%	82%	20%
2014	87%	85%	15%

66

Rank	Pitcher	Year	Score	Trend	Rank	Pitcher	Year	Score	Trend
1	Gabriel Ozuna	1993	67		11	Shayne Bennett	1996	51
2	Jean Machi	2007	60		12	Geoff Duncan	1999	51
3	Juan Padilla	2001	58		13	Todd Bussa	1997	51
4	Beltran Perez	2006	57		14	Javier Mejia	1998	51
5	Hector Almonte	2000	56		15	Ryan Saylor	1999	50
6	Edward Buzachero	2005	54		16	Keith Troutman	1997	50
7	Ricardo Rodriguez	2005	53		17	Emiliano Giron	1996	49
8	Rafael Chaves	1993	53		18	Jeff Patterson	1993	49
9	Joshua Fields	2004	52		19	Brandon Medders	2004	49
10	Maximo Regalado	2001	52		20	Jose Rodriguez	2006	49

Player Comments

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2007

Another shortstop-turned-hurler, Arredondo, like many of his breed, has a plus fastball despite not having the big frame typical flamethrowers. Little more than two years into the conversion, the slight Dominican has a lot of the problems you`d expect--poor control, no reliable second pitch, and no real touch when it comes to changing speeds. It probably didn`t help matters that the Angels pushed him up to Double-A prematurely, but with his fastball topping out at 97 MPH, we could see Arredondo panning out as a reliever.

																		-- Equivalents --
Year	Tm	Lg	W	L	SV	G	GS	IP	H	BB	SO	HR	GB%	BABIP	Stuff	WHIP	ERA	PERA	ERA	H9	BB9	K9	HR9	VORP	WXRL	WARP
2005	ORM	0R	5	0	0	15	13	68.7	76	20	60	4	50%	.355	-33	1.40	4.19	8.88	8.47	13.3	6.2	3.0	1.6	-18.0		-0.9
2005	ARK	2A	0	0	0	5	0	5.3	5	4	4	0	43%	.357	-31	1.70	3.40	5.92	3.86	9.6	9.6	3.9	0.0	0.9		0.1
2006	RCU	1C	5	6	0	15	15	90.0	62	35	115	4	39%	.299	15	1.08	2.30	4.70	4.28	8.0	5.2	7.4	0.9	11.7		2.7
2006	ARK	2A	2	3	0	11	11	60.1	80	22	48	8	46%	.367	-14	1.70	6.59	8.32	8.63	12.7	4.1	4.7	1.7	-19.3		-0.9
2007	RCU	1C	2	4	4	28	0	35.0	46	11	34	5	47%	.387	-32	1.63	6.43	10.25	11.08	14.2	4.3	5.1	2.0	-19.3		-2.1
2007	ARK	2A	0	1	10	23	0	25.0	16	12	28	2	40%	.246	-2	1.12	2.52	4.15	4.56	6.8	5.3	7.2	1.1	2.7		0.8
2007	SLC	3A	0	0	0	2	0	3.0	2	2	1	0	80%	.250	-16	1.33	3.00	0.55	3.00	6.0	6.0	3.0	0.0	0.9		0.1

Historical Stats