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Joaquin Arias
Texas Rangers [ Team Audit ] [ Depth Chart ]
Shortstop
Bats R
Age 23
6' 1"
165 lbs.

Player Profile

Sections
Historical Stats | 2008 Forecast | Diagnostics | Seven-Year Forecast | Valuation | Most Comparable Players | Player Comments

Historical Stats

-- Equivalents --
Year Tm Lg PA R 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO SB CS EqBRR AVG OBP SLG MLVr AVG OBP SLG EqA VORP Defense WARP
2005 FRI 2A 526 65 23 8 5 56 17 46 20 10 1.8 .315 .335 .423 .060 .273 .298 .375 .234 4.9 117-SS -1 2.9
2006 OKL 3A 525 56 14 10 4 49 19 64 26 10 -0.7 .268 .296 .361 -.110 .241 .268 .332 .212 -15.7 122-SS -5 1.6
2006 TEX MJ 12 4 1 0 0 1 1 0 0 1 0.7 .545 .583 .636 1.069 .545 .583 .636 .381 2.8 0.2
2007 RNG 0R 8 1 1 0 0 1 0 2 0 0 0.0 .286 .250 .429 -.089 .143 .125 .143 .000 -3.9 0.0
2007 OKL 3A 11 3 0 0 0 1 0 2 1 0 -0.1 .182 .182 .182 -.724 .182 .182 .182 .129 -1.8 0.0


EQA Distribution

Seven-Year WARP

2008 Forecast

(projection generated 3/18/08 5:55 AM)
-- Equivalents --
Percentile PA R 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO SB CS EqBRR AVG OBP SLG MLVr AVG OBP SLG EqA VORP Defense WARP
90o 116 14 6 1 2 10 5 17 4 1 0.3 .267 .302 .382 -.120 .264 .302 .392 .249 1.8 32-SS 1 0.9
75o 108 11 5 1 1 9 4 16 3 1 0.3 .250 .282 .347 -.214 .247 .282 .355 .229 -0.8 30-SS 0 0.7
60o 105 10 4 1 1 8 4 16 3 1 0.3 .244 .275 .333 -.250 .241 .274 .342 .221 -1.6 29-SS 0 0.6
50o 103 9 4 1 1 8 4 16 3 1 0.3 .239 .270 .325 -.273 .236 .270 .333 .216 -2.2 29-SS 0 0.5
40o 100 9 4 1 1 7 3 15 3 1 0.3 .234 .263 .314 -.302 .231 .263 .322 .209 -2.8 28-SS 0 0.4
25o 94 7 3 1 1 6 3 15 3 1 0.2 .223 .249 .289 -.366 .220 .249 .297 .192 -4.1 27-SS 0 0.3
10o 87 6 3 0 0 5 2 14 2 1 0.2 .211 .235 .265 -.430 .208 .235 .272 .174 -5.1 25-SS 0 0.1
Weighted Mean 109 10 4 1 1 8 4 17 3 1 0.3 .239 .270 .325 -.273 .236 .269 .333 .215 -2.3 30-SS 0 0.7

Diagnostics

Breakout Rate Improve Rate Collapse Rate Attrition Rate Beta

19%

43%

31%

14%

0.95

Seven-Year Forecast

-- Equivalents --
Year PA R 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO SB CS EqBRR AVG OBP SLG MLVr AVG OBP SLG EqA VORP Defense WARP
2008 (age 23) 109 10 4 1 1 8 4 17 3 1 0.3 .239 .270 .325 -.273 .236 .269 .333 .215 -2.3 30-SS 0 0.7
2009 (age 24) 94 9 4 1 1 7 4 14 3 1 0.2 .243 .277 .335 -.244 .244 .281 .350 .222 -0.9 27-SS 0 0.4
2010 (age 25) 108 11 5 1 1 9 4 15 3 1 0.1 .255 .289 .358 -.184 .256 .293 .374 .233 0.0 30-SS 0 0.4
2011 (age 26) 114 13 5 1 2 9 5 18 3 1 0.1 .256 .291 .369 -.165 .257 .296 .386 .238 0.2 31-SS 0 0.3
2012 (age 27)
-- out of baseball --
2013 (age 28)
-- out of baseball --
2014 (age 29)
-- out of baseball --

Platoon

Platoon AVG OBP SLG
vs LHP .254 .288 .351
vs RHP .235 .263 .313
Split +.019 +.024 +.038
LgAvg +.020 +.024 +.038

Valuation

Year OWARP DWARP Tot WARP MORP SuperVORP Upside
2008 0.0 0.8 0.7 $750,000 -1.2 0.5
2009 0.0 0.4 0.4 $550,000 -0.6 0.3
2010 0.0 0.3 0.4 $650,000 0.4 1.2
2011 0.0 0.2 0.3 $600,000 0.4 0.7
2012 0.0 0.2 0.2 $575,000 0.5 0.9
2013 0.0 0.1 0.1 $625,000 0.6 1.1
2014 0.0 0.1 0.1 $575,000 0.3 0.5
Peak 2.0 $1,125,000 2.6 4.9


Stars & Scrubs Chart

Career Path Analysis


Seven-Year Performance
Year 75% 50% 25% Weighted Mean
2008 .229 .216 .192 .215
2009 .240 .217 .196 .222
2010 .252 .229 .189 .233
2011 .254 .224 .203 .238
2012
-- out of baseball --
2013
-- out of baseball --
2014
-- out of baseball --


Seven-Year Attrition
Year Attrition Rate Drop Rate Breakout
2008 14% 0% 19%
2009 42% 30% 22%
2010 57% 47% 27%
2011 72% 65% 23%
2012 80% 78% 22%
2013 90% 88% 18%
2014 93% 85% 18%

Player Comments

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2007

Part of the very light payoff for Alex Rodriguez, Joaquin Arias has all the physical tools to be a fine shortstop. That doesn`t mean he`s going to be a useful major league player. He hasn`t developed even rudimentary selectivity at the plate and lacks consistency on defense. He`s young enough to develop further, but given the distance he has to travel, we may be asking the impossible. With Michael Young around, Arias will eventually be tried out at second, the first step toward a few years in the bigs as a reserve middle infielder.

2006

Still more tools than results, but Arias is making solid progress. Acquired in the A-Rod deal, he has put together two consecutive good seasons at the plate to go with his fine defensive reputation. What little power he has is improving, and 20-year-old shortstops who stick in Double-A are generally guys with futures. He`ll have to hit for a good average to contribute at the major league level, and so far he`s shown the ability to do just that.

2005

Came over in the A-Rod deal, and played pretty well as a 19-year-old in the California League. Still has to develop his skills, but he flashed some great speed, the occasional outstanding defensive play, and he's young enough to have a potentially solid career. If he lights up Double-A this season, he'll start showing up on some prospect lists.


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