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Hector Ambriz
Arizona Diamondbacks [ Team Audit ] [ Depth Chart ]
Pitcher
Throws R
Age 24
6' 1"
210 lbs.
Player Profile

Sections
Historical Stats | 2008 Forecast | Diagnostics | Seven-Year Forecast | Most Comparable Pitchers

Historical Stats

-- Equivalents --
Year Tm Lg W L SV G GS IP H BB SO HR GB% BABIP Stuff WHIP ERA PERA ERA H9 BB9 K9 HR9 VORP WXRL WARP
2006 MSO 0R 1 3 3 15 4 42.0 29 11 52 1 50% .270 -2 0.95 1.93 5.20 4.46 8.9 4.7 5.9 0.7 4.6 1.3
2007 VIS 1C 10 8 0 28 26 150.0 137 50 133 12 44% .295 -6 1.25 4.08 5.49 5.99 9.6 4.4 4.6 1.2 -6.1 2.2


EQA Distribution
Seven-Year WARP

2008 Forecast

 (projection generated 3/17/08 6:04 AM)
-- Equivalents --
Percentile W L SV G GS IP H BB SO HR GB% BABIP Stuff WHIP ERA PERA ERA H9 BB9 K9 HR9 VORP WXRL WARP
90o 9 8 0 26 26 149.3 158 61 97 23 43% .287 7 1.47 4.68 4.89 4.49 9.0 3.3 5.4 1.3 20.8 3.2 3.6
75o 8 9 0 25 25 142.7 157 62 92 24 43% .293 4 1.53 5.13 5.24 4.92 9.3 3.5 5.4 1.4 12.8 2.4 2.8
60o 6 9 0 31 22 131.0 153 63 83 24 43% .303 -4 1.65 5.97 5.89 5.71 9.9 3.9 5.3 1.6 -0.3 0.9 1.4
50o 6 9 0 31 21 125.0 151 63 78 25 43% .309 -7 1.71 6.41 6.24 6.14 10.3 4.1 5.2 1.6 -6.4 0.2 0.8
40o 5 9 0 30 20 118.0 148 63 73 25 42% .315 -11 1.78 6.95 6.66 6.64 10.6 4.3 5.1 1.8 -12.9 -0.5 0.1
25o 4 9 0 30 19 107.7 142 63 65 25 42% .324 -16 1.90 7.77 7.31 7.42 11.2 4.7 5.0 1.9 -21.5 -1.4 -0.9
10o 3 8 0 27 16 86.0 127 59 50 23 42% .344 -27 2.15 9.66 8.76 9.20 12.5 5.5 4.8 2.3 -34.8 -2.8 -2.4
Weighted Mean 6 10 0 32 22 129.7 156 65 81 25 43% .308 -7 1.70 6.37 6.20 6.10 10.2 4.0 5.2 1.6 -5.7 0.3 0.6

Diagnostics

Breakout Rate Improve Rate Collapse Rate Attrition Rate Beta

13%

42%

28%

14%

1.31

Seven-Year Forecast

-- Equivalents --
Year W L SV G GS IP H BB SO HR GB% BABIP Stuff WHIP ERA PERA ERA H9 BB9 K9 HR9 VORP WXRL WARP
2008 (age 24) 6 10 0 32 22 129.7 156 65 81 25 43% .308 -7 1.70 6.37 6.20 6.10 10.2 4.0 5.2 1.6 -5.7 0.3 0.6
2009 (age 25) 5 8 0 34 16 109.3 129 53 68 20 43% .306 -10 1.66 6.08 6.01 5.82 10.0 3.9 5.2 1.6 -1.4 0.5 0.7
2010 (age 26) 5 8 0 36 16 112.0 127 50 68 19 42% .297 -8 1.58 5.95 5.52 5.75 9.7 3.6 5.1 1.4 -0.5 0.6 0.7
2011 (age 27) 4 5 0 30 10 80.0 96 36 51 13 42% .314 -9 1.65 5.83 5.83 5.58 10.2 3.7 5.3 1.4 0.8 0.5 0.7
2012 (age 28) 4 6 0 32 10 83.7 101 34 49 16 42% .305 -12 1.61 6.07 5.90 5.81 10.2 3.3 4.9 1.6 -0.8 0.3 0.4
2013 (age 29) 3 4 0 25 6 58.0 68 23 36 11 41% .303 -10 1.57 5.95 5.67 5.71 10.0 3.2 5.2 1.6 -0.1 0.2 0.4
2014 (age 30) 2 2 0 16 4 35.7 42 14 22 6 43% .303 -9 1.56 5.76 5.64 5.51 10.0 3.2 5.3 1.5 0.7 0.2 0.4

Platoon

Platoon AVG OBP SLG
vs LHB .291 .393 .494
vs RHB .270 .357 .435
Split +.022 +.037 +.059
LgAvg +.009 +.034 +.039

Valuation

Year WARP MORP Mean VORP Upside
2008 0.6 $675,000 -8.0 2.5
2009 0.7 $825,000 -3.0 3.6
2010 0.7 $875,000 -2.1 3.3
2011 0.7 $825,000 -0.3 3.0
2012 0.4 $625,000 -1.7 1.9
2013 0.4 $600,000 -0.8 1.3
2014 0.4 $650,000 0.1 0.7
Peak 3.5 $1,800,000 0.1 15.7


Stars & Scrubs Chart
Career Path Analysis


Seven-Year Performance
Year 75% 50% 25% Weighted Mean
2008 4.92 6.14 7.42 6.10
2009 4.74 5.84 7.07 5.82
2010 4.69 5.63 7.46 5.75
2011 4.65 5.57 6.66 5.58
2012 4.90 5.59 6.69 5.81
2013 5.03 5.56 7.73 5.71
2014 4.79 5.65 7.62 5.51


Seven-Year Attrition
Year Attrition Rate Drop Rate Breakout
2008 14% 0% 13%
2009 33% 10% 20%
2010 45% 21% 18%
2011 57% 31% 18%
2012 59% 43% 18%
2013 73% 49% 15%
2014 84% 56% 7%

Most Comparable Pitchers

Similarity Index

72

Rank Pitcher Year Score Trend Rank Pitcher Year Score Trend
1 Brian Sikorski 1998 72 11 Vinnie Chulk 2003 59
2 Paul Byrd 1995 67 12 Reid Cornelius 1994 58
3 Brian Boehringer 1994 66 13 Tim Vanegmond 1993 58
4 Greg Keagle 1995 65 14 Jimmy Journell 2002 58
5 T.J. Mathews 1994 63 15 Justin Miller 2001 57
6 Reynol Mendoza 1994 63 16 Rett Johnson 2003 57
7 Kevin McGehee 1993 63 17 Jose Prado 1996 57
8 Blake Hawksworth 2007 62 18 Chris Brock 1995 56
9 Gabe Ribas 2004 61 19 Cliff Politte 1998 56
10 Brian Bannister 2005 59 20 Matt Wise 1999 55

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