Craig Albernaz

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Historical Stats | 2009 Forecast | Diagnostics | Seven-Year Forecast | Valuation | Most Comparable Players

Historical Stats

																		-- Equivalents --
Year	Tm	Lg	PA	R	2B	3B	HR	RBI	BB	SO	SB	CS	EqBRR	AVG	OBP	SLG	MLVr	AVG	OBP	SLG	EqA	VORP	Defense	WARP
2006	PRI	Rk	97	11	3	0	0	3	7	18	2	0	0.1	.186	.263	.221	-.861	.099	.146	.121	.000	-47.0	28-C -2	-2.1
2007	CGA	A	116	11	3	0	0	3	10	22	0	1	0.0	.170	.263	.200	-.787	.113	.174	.132	.000	-22.9	32-C 3	-1.1
2008	VRO	A+	52	3	0	0	1	7	4	7	0	0	0.2	.128	.212	.191	-.791	.102	.154	.163	.000	-11.1	14-C 2	-0.4
2008	MNT	AA	53	10	2	1	1	9	4	9	0	0	-0.4	.340	.392	.489	-.179	.245	.288	.388	.233	-0.9	14-C 4	0.6

EQA Distribution

Seven-Year WARP

2009 Forecast

(projection generated 3/7/09 11:40 PM)

																-- Equivalents --
Percentile	PA	R	2B	3B	HR	RBI	BB	SO	SB	CS	EqBRR	AVG	OBP	SLG	MLVr	AVG	OBP	SLG	EqA	VORP	Defense	WARP
90^o	145	9	5	0	1	10	10	39	1	0	0.0	.183	.246	.255	-.441	.186	.249	.268	.177	-9.1	38-C 1	0.0
75^o	159	8	4	0	1	9	9	46	1	0	0.0	.153	.208	.203	-.599	.156	.210	.214	.121	-15.8	41-C 2	-0.7
60^o	171	7	3	0	1	8	8	52	1	0	0.0	.140	.189	.179	-.674	.142	.191	.189	.074	-20.0	44-C 2	-1.1
50^o	184	7	3	0	1	6	8	59	1	0	0.0	.131	.177	.165	-.719	.133	.179	.174	.020	-23.5	47-C 2	-1.3
40^o	184	7	3	0	1	6	8	59	1	0	0.0	.131	.177	.165	-.719	.133	.179	.174	.020	-23.5	47-C 2	-1.3
25^o	184	7	3	0	1	6	8	59	1	0	0.0	.131	.177	.165	-.719	.133	.179	.174	.020	-23.5	47-C 2	-1.3
10^o	184	7	3	0	1	6	8	59	1	0	0.0	.131	.177	.165	-.719	.133	.179	.174	.020	-23.5	47-C 2	-1.3
Weighted Mean	160	7	3	0	1	8	8	48	1	0	0.0	.140	.189	.180	-.652	.142	.191	.189	.072	-20.0	42-C 2	-1.0

Diagnostics

Breakout Rate	Improve Rate	Collapse Rate	Attrition Rate	Beta
40%	41%	59%	56%	1.44

Seven-Year Forecast

																-- Equivalents --
Year	PA	R	2B	3B	HR	RBI	BB	SO	SB	CS	EqBRR	AVG	OBP	SLG	MLVr	AVG	OBP	SLG	EqA	VORP	Defense	WARP
2009 (age 26)	160	7	3	0	1	8	8	48	1	0	0.0	.140	.189	.180	-.652	.142	.191	.189	.072	-20.0	42-C 2	-1.0
2010 (age 27)	212	10	4	1	1	10	10	64	1	1	0.0	.143	.191	.183	-.654	.147	.196	.195	.078	-8.8	53-C 3	-0.4
2011 (age 28)	-- out of baseball --
2012 (age 29)	-- out of baseball --
2013 (age 30)	-- out of baseball --
2014 (age 31)	-- out of baseball --
2015 (age 32)	-- out of baseball --

Platoon

Platoon	AVG	OBP	SLG
vs LHP	.157	.209	.211
vs RHP	.137	.185	.173
Split	+.020	+.024	+.038
LgAvg	+.020	+.024	+.038

Valuation

Year	BRAA	FRAA	Tot WARP	MORP	SuperVORP	Upside
2009	-16.4	2.0	-1.0	$400,000	-17.6	0.0
2010	-21.3	3.0	-0.4	$400,000	-7.6	0.0
2011	-- out of baseball --
2012	-- out of baseball --
2013	-- out of baseball --
2014	-- out of baseball --
2015	-- out of baseball --
Peak			0.0	0.0	0.0	0.1

Stars & Scrubs Chart

Career Path Analysis

Seven-Year Performance

Year	75%	50%	25%	Weighted Mean
2009	.121	.020	.020	.072
2010	.118	.074	.021	.078
2011	-- out of baseball --
2012	-- out of baseball --
2013	-- out of baseball --
2014	-- out of baseball --
2015	-- out of baseball --

Seven-Year Attrition

Year	Attrition Rate	Drop Rate	Breakout
2009	56%	0%	40%
2010	76%	60%	40%
2011	83%	79%	36%
2012	89%	86%	34%
2013	95%	93%	33%
2014	97%	95%	32%
2015	97%	97%	38%

Most Comparable Players

Similarity Index

49

Rank	Hitter	Year	Score	Trend	Rank	Hitter	Year	Score	Trend
1	Dana Levangie	1996	48		11	Derek Ryder	1999	36
2	Bob Kappesser	1993	47		12	Justin Hatcher	2007	36
3	Troy O'Neal	1998	46		13	Tim Redman	1992	35
4	Terrill Elliot	1990	41		14	Graig Merritt	2005	35
5	Don Prybylinski	1994	40		15	Mike Kremblas	2002	35
6	Steve Soliz	1997	39		16	Matt Brown	1995	34
7	Jerry Valdez	2001	37		17	Brad Elwood	2002	34
8	Sandy Aracena	2004	37		18	Brad Heller	1998	33
9	Juan Lopez	1989	37		19	Ryan Bennett	2001	33
10	Danny Calcagno	1994	36		20	Brad Erdman	1996	32

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