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He's probably very handsome. Kevin Ahrens
Toronto Blue Jays [ Team Audit ] [ Depth Chart ]
Third Base
Bats B
Age 19
6' 1"
190 lbs.

Player Profile

Sections
Historical Stats | 2008 Forecast | Diagnostics | Seven-Year Forecast | Valuation | Most Comparable Players

Historical Stats

-- Equivalents --
Year Tm Lg PA R 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO SB CS EqBRR AVG OBP SLG MLVr AVG OBP SLG EqA VORP Defense WARP
2007 BLJ 0R 192 19 6 0 3 21 25 47 3 0 -2.2 .230 .339 .321 -.043 .178 .259 .236 .173 -39.8 24-3B -3 -0.6


EQA Distribution

Seven-Year WARP

2008 Forecast

(projection generated 3/18/08 5:31 AM)
-- Equivalents --
Percentile PA R 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO SB CS EqBRR AVG OBP SLG MLVr AVG OBP SLG EqA VORP Defense WARP
90o 561 54 29 2 10 50 44 155 9 4 -0.4 .230 .293 .357 -.193 .229 .295 .361 .234 -8.4 132-3B -4 1.6
75o 528 44 25 2 8 44 39 153 8 4 -0.4 .214 .275 .324 -.278 .213 .276 .327 .215 -18.6 124-3B -3 0.7
60o 504 37 22 2 6 39 35 150 8 3 -0.4 .203 .263 .301 -.335 .202 .264 .304 .201 -24.6 119-3B -2 0.1
50o 495 35 21 2 6 38 34 149 7 3 -0.4 .199 .258 .293 -.356 .198 .260 .296 .195 -26.6 117-3B -2 0.0
40o 478 31 19 2 5 35 32 147 7 3 -0.3 .192 .250 .279 -.392 .191 .252 .282 .185 -29.8 113-3B -2 -0.5
25o 439 24 16 1 3 29 28 142 6 3 -0.3 .178 .234 .249 -.466 .177 .235 .252 .163 -35.2 104-3B -1 -1.1
10o 399 18 13 1 2 23 24 135 5 3 -0.2 .167 .220 .225 -.528 .166 .221 .227 .140 -38.0 95-3B -1 -1.5
Weighted Mean 508 36 21 2 6 39 35 154 8 3 -0.3 .198 .257 .290 -.364 .197 .258 .293 .193 -27.4 120-3B -1 0.4

Diagnostics

Breakout Rate Improve Rate Collapse Rate Attrition Rate Beta

64%

72%

16%

8%

1.14

Seven-Year Forecast

-- Equivalents --
Year PA R 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO SB CS EqBRR AVG OBP SLG MLVr AVG OBP SLG EqA VORP Defense WARP
2008 (age 19) 508 36 21 2 6 39 35 154 8 3 -0.3 .198 .257 .290 -.364 .197 .258 .293 .193 -27.4 120-3B -1 0.4
2009 (age 20) 560 45 25 2 9 48 38 159 8 3 -0.4 .206 .264 .316 -.313 .208 .269 .325 .206 -21.4 131-3B -1 0.7
2010 (age 21) 587 55 29 3 11 54 44 153 9 3 -0.4 .217 .279 .343 -.245 .219 .285 .353 .222 -12.9 138-3B -1 1.6
2011 (age 22) 574 57 25 3 12 56 48 149 8 3 -0.4 .224 .294 .354 -.199 .227 .300 .364 .233 -7.2 134-3B -4 1.6
2012 (age 23) 571 56 26 2 11 49 44 146 8 4 -0.4 .226 .292 .351 -.207 .229 .298 .361 .230 -7.8 134-3B -4 1.5
2013 (age 24) 551 59 25 3 13 52 48 129 9 3 -0.4 .239 .308 .378 -.134 .241 .315 .390 .247 0.0 129-3B -4 2.0
2014 (age 25) 463 48 26 3 11 49 39 111 6 3 -0.3 .252 .318 .408 -.069 .255 .325 .421 .258 4.0 110-3B -3 2.1

Platoon

Platoon AVG OBP SLG
vs LHP .205 .254 .308
vs RHP .196 .258 .283
Split +.009 -.004 +.025
LgAvg +.004 -.004 +.007

Valuation

Year OWARP DWARP Tot WARP MORP SuperVORP Upside
2008 -1.4 1.8 0.4 $550,000 -28.5 0.0
2009 -1.0 1.7 0.7 $850,000 -22.2 0.0
2010 -0.2 1.8 1.6 $1,900,000 -11.9 1.1
2011 0.2 1.4 1.6 $2,150,000 -8.8 2.3
2012 0.1 1.4 1.5 $2,125,000 -9.2 2.5
2013 0.7 1.3 2.0 $3,125,000 -0.9 4.9
2014 0.8 1.3 2.1 $4,475,000 3.8 3.1
Peak 10.0 $9,575,000 4.0 16.9


Stars & Scrubs Chart

Career Path Analysis


Seven-Year Performance
Year 75% 50% 25% Weighted Mean
2008 .215 .195 .163 .193
2009 .218 .198 .172 .206
2010 .234 .217 .199 .222
2011 .245 .228 .205 .233
2012 .252 .222 .199 .230
2013 .258 .241 .216 .247
2014 .265 .248 .227 .258


Seven-Year Attrition
Year Attrition Rate Drop Rate Breakout
2008 8% 0% 64%
2009 7% 4% 74%
2010 12% 9% 84%
2011 17% 10% 89%
2012 19% 19% 85%
2013 30% 25% 86%
2014 53% 36% 89%

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