Kevin Ahrens

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Historical Stats | 2008 Forecast | Diagnostics | Seven-Year Forecast | Valuation | Most Comparable Players

Historical Stats

																		-- Equivalents --
Year	Tm	Lg	PA	R	2B	3B	HR	RBI	BB	SO	SB	CS	EqBRR	AVG	OBP	SLG	MLVr	AVG	OBP	SLG	EqA	VORP	Defense	WARP
2007	BLJ	0R	192	19	6	0	3	21	25	47	3	0	-2.2	.230	.339	.321	-.043	.178	.259	.236	.173	-39.8	24-3B -3	-0.6

EQA Distribution

Seven-Year WARP

2008 Forecast

(projection generated 3/18/08 5:31 AM)

																-- Equivalents --
Percentile	PA	R	2B	3B	HR	RBI	BB	SO	SB	CS	EqBRR	AVG	OBP	SLG	MLVr	AVG	OBP	SLG	EqA	VORP	Defense	WARP
90^o	561	54	29	2	10	50	44	155	9	4	-0.4	.230	.293	.357	-.193	.229	.295	.361	.234	-8.4	132-3B -4	1.6
75^o	528	44	25	2	8	44	39	153	8	4	-0.4	.214	.275	.324	-.278	.213	.276	.327	.215	-18.6	124-3B -3	0.7
60^o	504	37	22	2	6	39	35	150	8	3	-0.4	.203	.263	.301	-.335	.202	.264	.304	.201	-24.6	119-3B -2	0.1
50^o	495	35	21	2	6	38	34	149	7	3	-0.4	.199	.258	.293	-.356	.198	.260	.296	.195	-26.6	117-3B -2	0.0
40^o	478	31	19	2	5	35	32	147	7	3	-0.3	.192	.250	.279	-.392	.191	.252	.282	.185	-29.8	113-3B -2	-0.5
25^o	439	24	16	1	3	29	28	142	6	3	-0.3	.178	.234	.249	-.466	.177	.235	.252	.163	-35.2	104-3B -1	-1.1
10^o	399	18	13	1	2	23	24	135	5	3	-0.2	.167	.220	.225	-.528	.166	.221	.227	.140	-38.0	95-3B -1	-1.5
Weighted Mean	508	36	21	2	6	39	35	154	8	3	-0.3	.198	.257	.290	-.364	.197	.258	.293	.193	-27.4	120-3B -1	0.4

Diagnostics

Breakout Rate	Improve Rate	Collapse Rate	Attrition Rate	Beta
64%	72%	16%	8%	1.14

Seven-Year Forecast

																-- Equivalents --
Year	PA	R	2B	3B	HR	RBI	BB	SO	SB	CS	EqBRR	AVG	OBP	SLG	MLVr	AVG	OBP	SLG	EqA	VORP	Defense	WARP
2008 (age 19)	508	36	21	2	6	39	35	154	8	3	-0.3	.198	.257	.290	-.364	.197	.258	.293	.193	-27.4	120-3B -1	0.4
2009 (age 20)	560	45	25	2	9	48	38	159	8	3	-0.4	.206	.264	.316	-.313	.208	.269	.325	.206	-21.4	131-3B -1	0.7
2010 (age 21)	587	55	29	3	11	54	44	153	9	3	-0.4	.217	.279	.343	-.245	.219	.285	.353	.222	-12.9	138-3B -1	1.6
2011 (age 22)	574	57	25	3	12	56	48	149	8	3	-0.4	.224	.294	.354	-.199	.227	.300	.364	.233	-7.2	134-3B -4	1.6
2012 (age 23)	571	56	26	2	11	49	44	146	8	4	-0.4	.226	.292	.351	-.207	.229	.298	.361	.230	-7.8	134-3B -4	1.5
2013 (age 24)	551	59	25	3	13	52	48	129	9	3	-0.4	.239	.308	.378	-.134	.241	.315	.390	.247	0.0	129-3B -4	2.0
2014 (age 25)	463	48	26	3	11	49	39	111	6	3	-0.3	.252	.318	.408	-.069	.255	.325	.421	.258	4.0	110-3B -3	2.1

Platoon

Platoon	AVG	OBP	SLG
vs LHP	.205	.254	.308
vs RHP	.196	.258	.283
Split	+.009	-.004	+.025
LgAvg	+.004	-.004	+.007

Valuation

Year	OWARP	DWARP	Tot WARP	MORP	SuperVORP	Upside
2008	-1.4	1.8	0.4	$550,000	-28.5	0.0
2009	-1.0	1.7	0.7	$850,000	-22.2	0.0
2010	-0.2	1.8	1.6	$1,900,000	-11.9	1.1
2011	0.2	1.4	1.6	$2,150,000	-8.8	2.3
2012	0.1	1.4	1.5	$2,125,000	-9.2	2.5
2013	0.7	1.3	2.0	$3,125,000	-0.9	4.9
2014	0.8	1.3	2.1	$4,475,000	3.8	3.1
Peak			10.0	$9,575,000	4.0	16.9

Stars & Scrubs Chart

Career Path Analysis

Seven-Year Performance

Year	75%	50%	25%	Weighted Mean
2008	.215	.195	.163	.193
2009	.218	.198	.172	.206
2010	.234	.217	.199	.222
2011	.245	.228	.205	.233
2012	.252	.222	.199	.230
2013	.258	.241	.216	.247
2014	.265	.248	.227	.258

Seven-Year Attrition

Year	Attrition Rate	Drop Rate	Breakout
2008	8%	0%	64%
2009	7%	4%	74%
2010	12%	9%	84%
2011	17%	10%	89%
2012	19%	19%	85%
2013	30%	25%	86%
2014	53%	36%	89%

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