Biographical

Portrait of Collin McHugh

Collin McHugh PAstros

Astros Player Cards | Astros Team Audit | Astros Depth Chart

2014 Projections (Preseason PECOTA - seasonal age 27)
IP ERA WHIP SO W L SV WARP
117.3 4.69 1.43 95 5 9 0 -0.1
Birth Date6-19-1987
Height6' 2"
Weight195 lbs
Age27 years, 4 months, 2 days
BatsR
ThrowsR
2010
2011
-0.12012
-0.42013
2.62014
+proj
WARP Summary

Standard

YEAR TEAM AGE G GS IP IP-SP IP-RP W L SV BS QS BQS PA H R ER HR TB BB UBB HBP SO ERA FIP FRA VORP WARP
2012 NYN 25 8 4 21.3 16.3 5.0 0 4 0 0 1 0 99 27 21 18 5 57 8 6 2 17 7.59 6.00 6.23 -0.9 -0.1
2013 COL 26 4 4 19.0 19.0 0.0 0 3 0 0 0 0 91 33 21 21 4 54 2 2 0 8 9.95 5.23 6.83 -1.4 -0.2
2013 NYN 26 3 1 7.0 4.0 3.0 0 1 0 0 0 0 34 12 8 8 2 21 3 3 0 3 10.29 7.16 6.61 -2.0 -0.2
2014 HOU 27 25 25 154.7 154.7 0.0 11 9 0 0 16 0 619 117 53 47 13 180 41 40 6 157 2.73 3.13 3.55 22.4 2.7
Career4034202.0194.08.01117001708431891039424312545181854.193.774.3018.12.3

Advanced

'opp' stats - Quality of opponents faced - have been moved and are available only as OPP_QUAL in the Statistics reports now.
Minor league stats are currently shownClick to hide.
YEAR Team Lg G GS IP FRA FRA+ TAv oppAVG oppOBP oppSLG oppTAv BABIP PPF PVORP PWARP VORP WARP
2008 KNG Rk 12 8 41.0 6.28 64 .280 .264 .336 .402 .267 .341 97 1.5 0.1 1.5 0.1
2009 BRO A- 14 14 75.0 3.45 112 .226 .243 .321 .338 .253 .302 90 8.5 0.9 8.5 0.9
2010 SAV A 28 20 132.3 4.41 89 .269 .256 .323 .380 .262 .339 89 7.3 0.7 7.3 0.7
2011 SLU A+ 9 6 35.7 4.72 106 .280 .258 .331 .374 .257 .411 106 3.9 0.4 3.9 0.4
2011 BIN AA 18 16 93.3 3.37 124 .229 .257 .325 .389 .268 .302 93 19.6 2.0 20.9 2.3
2012 NYN MLB 8 4 21.3 6.23 48 .356 .260 .317 .406 .259 .328 95 -1.1 -0.1 -0.9 -0.1
2012 BIN AA 12 12 74.7 3.79 117 .224 .262 .327 .398 .262 .278 103 11.5 1.2 12.4 1.3
2012 BUF AAA 13 13 73.7 4.84 98 .240 .256 .322 .387 .251 .256 101 5.0 0.5 3.8 0.4
2013 COL MLB 4 4 19.0 6.83 58 .331 .256 .311 .390 .253 .377 119 -2.0 -0.2 -1.4 -0.2
2013 NYN MLB 3 1 7.0 6.61 29 .407 .241 .290 .354 .239 .385 95 -1.7 -0.2 -2.0 -0.2
2013 TUL AA 2 2 13.0 3.02 124 .152 .251 .299 .381 .248 .250 92 2.4 0.3 2.0 0.2
2013 CSP AAA 9 9 46.7 4.02 120 .250 .271 .336 .409 .266 .355 106 11.0 1.1 10.9 1.1
2013 LVG AAA 9 9 53.3 4.01 126 .240 .272 .348 .430 .275 .329 114 13.2 1.3 14.0 1.4
2014 HOU MLB 25 25 154.7 3.55 114 .224 .254 .315 .394 .267 .259 99 23.2 2.6 22.4 2.7
2014 OKL AAA 5 3 19.0 3.60 127 .208 .269 .328 .421 .263 .263 99 3.9 0.4 3.9 0.4

Statistics For All Levels

Minor league stats are currently shownClick to hide.
Year Team Lg W L SV G GS IP H BB SO HR GB% BABIP H/9 BB/9 HR/9 K/9 WHIP ERA VORP WARP
2008 KNG Rk 0 0 1 12 8 41.0 47 16 41 5 58% .341 10.3 3.5 1.1 9.0 1.54 4.17 1.5 0.1
2009 BRO A- 8 2 0 14 14 75.0 61 21 79 1 49% .302 7.3 2.5 0.1 9.5 1.09 2.76 8.5 0.9
2010 SAV A 7 8 1 28 20 132.3 139 38 129 7 59% .339 9.5 2.6 0.5 8.8 1.34 3.33 7.3 0.7
2011 BIN AA 8 2 2 18 16 93.3 78 32 100 2 44% .302 7.5 3.1 0.2 9.6 1.18 2.89 20.9 2.3
2011 SLU A+ 1 2 1 9 6 35.7 47 14 39 3 51% .411 11.9 3.5 0.8 9.8 1.71 6.31 3.9 0.4
2012 BUF AAA 2 4 0 13 13 73.7 60 29 70 8 50% .256 7.3 3.5 1.0 8.6 1.21 3.42 3.8 0.4
2012 BIN AA 5 5 0 12 12 74.7 63 17 65 4 47% .278 7.6 2.0 0.5 7.8 1.07 2.41 12.4 1.3
2012 NYN MLB 0 4 0 8 4 21.3 27 8 17 5 39% .328 11.4 3.4 2.1 7.2 1.64 7.59 -0.9 -0.1
2013 TUL AA 1 1 0 2 2 13.0 9 0 12 1 48% .250 6.2 0.0 0.7 8.3 0.69 1.38 2.0 0.2
2013 CSP AAA 2 2 0 9 9 46.7 52 14 47 2 45% .355 10.0 2.7 0.4 9.1 1.41 4.63 10.9 1.1
2013 LVG AAA 3 2 0 9 9 53.3 57 13 41 3 47% .329 9.6 2.2 0.5 6.9 1.31 2.87 14.0 1.4
2013 NYN MLB 0 1 0 3 1 7.0 12 3 3 2 50% .385 15.4 3.9 2.6 3.9 2.14 10.29 -2.0 -0.2
2013 COL MLB 0 3 0 4 4 19.0 33 2 8 4 40% .377 15.6 0.9 1.9 3.8 1.84 9.95 -1.4 -0.2
2014 OKL AAA 0 0 0 5 3 19.0 15 6 13 0 33% .263 7.1 2.8 0.0 6.2 1.11 3.79 3.9 0.4
2014 HOU MLB 11 9 0 25 25 154.7 117 41 157 13 45% .259 6.8 2.4 0.8 9.1 1.02 2.73 22.4 2.7

Plate Discipline

YEAR PITCHES ZONE_RT SWING_RT CONTACT_RT Z_SWING_RT O_SWING_RT Z_CONTACT_RT O_CONTACT_RT SW_STRK_RT
2012 388 0.4536 0.4691 0.8132 0.6193 0.3443 0.8257 0.7945 0.1813
2013 435 0.5310 0.5080 0.8326 0.6580 0.3382 0.8487 0.7971 0.1674
2014 2485 0.5151 0.4617 0.7592 0.6203 0.2921 0.8375 0.5824 0.2373
Career33080.510.46870.77520.62510.30430.83760.63550.2215

Injury History

Date On Date Off Transaction Days Games Side Body Part Injury Severity Surgery Date Reaggravation
2014-09-16 2014-09-21 DTD 5 5 Right Wrist Contusion Batted Ball -
2014-07-07 2014-07-27 15-DL 20 14 Right Fingers Avulsion Middle Finger Nail -
2014-06-09 2014-06-13 DTD 4 4 Right Fingers Blister Middle Finger -

Compensation

Year Team Salary
2014 HOU $
2013 NYN $
2012 NYN $

 

Service TimeAgentContract Status
0 y 97 d1 year (2014)

Details
  • 1 year (2014). Re-signed by Houston 3/6/14.
  • 1 year (2013). Re-signed by NY Mets 3/3/13. Acquired by Colorado in trade 6/19/13 after being DFA by NY Mets 6/16/13. Claimed by Houston off waivers 12/18/13 after being DFA by Colorado 12/17/13.
  • 1 year (2012). Contract purchased by NY Mets 8/22/12.
  • Drafted by NY Mets 2008 (18-554) (Berry, Ga.).

2014 Preseason Forecast

Last Update: 3/11/2014 05:35 ET

PCT W L SV G GS IP H BB SO HR BABIP WHIP ERA FRA VORP WARP
90o 7.1 9.1 0 25 25 135.3 122 42 109 14 .274 1.21 3.59 3.9 19.6 2.0
80o 6.4 9.2 0 24 24 129.0 123 43 104 14 .286 1.29 3.96 4.31 12.4 1.3
70o 6 9.2 0 23 23 124.6 124 43 101 14 .294 1.34 4.24 4.61 7.7 0.8
60o 5.6 9.2 0 23 23 120.8 125 43 98 14 .302 1.39 4.48 4.87 4.0 0.4
50o 5.3 9.2 0 22 22 117.4 125 43 95 14 .309 1.44 4.70 5.11 0.8 0.1
40o 5 9.3 0 21 21 114.0 125 44 92 14 .315 1.48 4.93 5.36 -2.3 -0.2
30o 4.6 9.3 0 21 21 110.4 126 44 89 14 .323 1.53 5.18 5.63 -5.3 -0.5
20o 4.2 9.3 0 20 20 106.3 126 44 86 14 .331 1.60 5.47 5.95 -8.5 -0.9
10o 3.7 9.2 0 19 19 100.7 126 44 81 14 .343 1.68 5.89 6.4 -12.4 -1.3
Weighted Mean5.39.202222117.3124439514.3071.434.685.091.00.1

Diagnostics

Breakout Rate Improve Rate Collapse Rate Attrition Rate MLB %
28% 33% 11% 21% 50%

Long-Term Forecast (Beyond the 2014 Projections)

Playing time estimates are based on performance, not Depth Charts.
Year Age W L SV G GS IP H BB SO HR GB% BABIP WHIP ERA FRA H/9 BB/9 K/9 HR/9 WARP
2015287702121126125381071347.3011.303.964.319.02.77.70.91.1
201629660191911011033951347.3031.304.114.479.02.77.81.10.8
201730660181810811032911347.3021.314.204.569.22.77.61.10.6
20183156017179910130821247.3021.324.204.579.22.77.41.10.6
2019325501616919428741147.3021.344.264.639.32.87.31.10.5
2020335501414858725701047.3031.324.164.529.22.67.41.10.6
202134440131378792365947.3031.314.184.549.22.77.51.00.5
202235440121269702058847.3031.314.124.479.22.67.61.00.5
202336340111162631852747.3031.314.104.459.12.67.51.00.5

Upside By Year

2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 PEAK 5
0.312.92.41.25.25.121.9

Comparable Players (Similarity Index 87)

Rank Score Name Year Run Average Trend
1 95 Marco Estrada 2011 4.37
2 94 Sam LeCure 2011 3.82
3 92 Matt Maloney 2011 10.12
4 92 Cesar Valdez 2012 0.00 DNP
5 92 Dan Meyer 2009 3.70
6 92 Tony Watson 2012 3.54
7 91 Tom Koehler 2013 4.53
8 91 Robert Ray 2011 0.00 DNP
9 91 Philip Humber 2010 4.15
10 91 Alfredo Figaro 2012 0.00 DNP
11 91 Ramon A. Ramirez 2010 0.00 DNP
12 91 John Stephens 2007 0.00 DNP
13 90 Jeremy Hefner 2013 5.17
14 90 P.J. Walters 2012 5.98
15 90 Brad Mills 2012 0.00
16 90 Pedro Figueroa 2013 12.00
17 90 Daniel McCutchen 2010 6.38
18 89 Brad Meyers 2013 0.00 DNP
19 89 Eric Berger 2013 0.00 DNP
20 89 Yohan Pino 2011 0.00 DNP
21 89 Jeff Manship 2012 7.89
22 89 Chris Narveson 2009 4.21
23 88 Nick Schmidt 2013 0.00 DNP
24 88 Matt Wright 2009 0.00 DNP
25 88 Davis Romero 2010 0.00 DNP
26 88 Brandon Dickson 2012 9.95
27 88 David Pauley 2010 4.37
28 88 Francisco Cruceta 2009 0.00 DNP
29 88 Blake Hawksworth 2010 5.58
30 88 Shane Komine 2008 0.00 DNP
31 88 Corey Kluber 2013 4.09
32 88 Joe Martinez 2010 5.03
33 88 Esmailin Caridad 2011 0.00 DNP
34 87 Henry Sosa 2013 0.00 DNP
35 87 Tom Cochran 2010 0.00 DNP
36 87 Duane Below 2013 10.12
37 87 Eric Hurley 2013 0.00 DNP
38 87 Brian Slocum 2008 27.00
39 87 Travis Blackley 2010 0.00 DNP
40 87 Matt Buschmann 2011 0.00 DNP
41 87 John Ely 2013 0.00 DNP
42 87 Ryohei Tanaka 2010 0.00 DNP
43 86 Bobby Brownlie 2008 0.00 DNP
44 86 Chris Seddon 2011 0.00 DNP
45 86 Jeremy Horst 2013 6.58
46 86 Heath Rollins 2012 0.00 DNP
47 86 Matt Klinker 2012 0.00 DNP
48 86 Dustin Nippert 2008 6.53
49 86 Travis Banwart 2013 0.00 DNP
50 86 Arnie Munoz 2009 0.00 DNP
51 86 Polin Trinidad 2012 0.00 DNP
52 86 Daryl Thompson 2013 0.00 DNP
53 86 Justin Thomas 2011 0.00 DNP
54 86 Humberto Sanchez 2010 0.00 DNP
55 86 Guillermo Moscoso 2011 4.15
56 85 Bruce Billings 2013 0.00 DNP
57 85 Thad Weber 2012 9.00
58 85 Lance Broadway 2011 0.00 DNP
59 85 Kevin Hart 2010 0.00 DNP
60 85 Pat Misch 2009 4.48
61 85 Anthony Lerew 2010 8.54
62 85 Deunte Heath 2013 11.74
63 85 Kevin Pucetas 2012 0.00 DNP
64 85 Terry Doyle 2013 0.00 DNP
65 85 Fabio Castro 2012 0.00 DNP
66 85 Ryan Ketchner 2009 0.00 DNP
67 85 Richie Gardner 2009 0.00 DNP
68 85 Joe Savery 2013 4.95
69 85 Mike Ballard 2011 0.00 DNP
70 85 Cory Luebke 2012 2.90
71 85 Andrew Albers 2013 5.10
72 85 Chad Reineke 2009 7.20
73 85 Chris Cody 2011 0.00 DNP
74 84 Paul Oseguera 2011 0.00 DNP
75 84 Nick Pereira 2010 0.00 DNP
76 84 Jon Switzer 2007 8.05
77 84 Donnie Veal 2012 2.08
78 84 Rob Musgrave 2013 0.00 DNP
79 84 Alan Horne 2010 0.00 DNP
80 84 Drew Naylor 2013 0.00 DNP
81 84 Hector Ambriz 2011 0.00 DNP
82 84 Mike Ekstrom 2011 0.00
83 84 Andrew Dobies 2010 0.00 DNP
84 84 Bobby LaFromboise 2013 6.75
85 84 Patrick Stanley 2010 0.00 DNP
86 84 Adrian Alaniz 2011 0.00 DNP
87 84 Mike Parisi 2010 0.00 DNP
88 84 Enrique Gonzalez 2010 3.81
89 84 Daniel Barone 2010 0.00 DNP
90 84 Steven Shell 2010 0.00 DNP
91 84 Clayton Mortensen 2012 3.21
92 84 Brad Lincoln 2012 3.78
93 84 Troy Cate 2008 0.00 DNP
94 84 Adam Ottavino 2013 3.10
95 84 Austin Bibens-Dirkx 2012 0.00 DNP
96 84 Cole McCurry 2013 0.00 DNP
97 83 Cesar Ramos 2011 4.53
98 83 Billy Buckner 2011 0.00 DNP
99 83 J.D. Durbin 2009 0.00 DNP
100 83 Jack Egbert 2010 0.00 DNP

Platoon

SORT_FIELD PLATOON AVG OBP SLG TAv
10 vs L (Multi) .417 .447 .788 .401
11 vs R (Multi) .333 .366 .554 .306
18 Split (Multi) .083 .080 .234 .095
19 LgAvg (Multi) .010 .024 .026 .019
30 vs L (2013) .438 .460 .792 .398
31 vs R (2013) .353 .370 .544 .305
38 Split (2013) .085 .090 .248 .093
39 LgAvg (2013) .010 .022 .028 .019

BP Annual Player Comments

YearComment
2014 Due to publishing agreements, the 2014 player comments and team essays are only available in the Baseball Prospectus 2014 book (available in hardcopy, e-book, and Kindle).
2013 McHugh throws five average pitches with good command, but was victimized by the league after his debut start against Colorado to the tune of 21 runs in 14 1/3 innings. His fastball averages just 91, though he gets a surprising number of swings-and-misses with it given the velocity. If McHugh isn't a starter, though, it's unclear what he is. Do five average pitches play out of the bullpen any better than they do in the rotation? In other words, McHugh isn't Familia, for whom the benefits of eliminating mediocre pitches from the repertoire are obvious.

BP Articles

Collin McHugh is referenced in the following articles.

BP Premium requires BP Premium access to view, BP Fantasy requires BP Premium or BP Fantasy access to view

  Title Author Date
BP Unfiltered: IBA Update: October 1Craig Goldstein2014-10-01
This article requires BP Premium accessWhat You Need to Know: September 15, 2014Daniel Rathman2014-09-15
This article requires BP Premium accessWhat You Need to Know: September 10, 2014Daniel Rathman2014-09-10
This article requires BP Premium accessWhat You Need to Know: August 13, 2014Daniel Rathman2014-08-13
This article requires BP Premium accessDaily League Strategy: Up LatosPaul Sporer2014-08-12
This article requires BP Fantasy or Premium accessFantasy Starting Pitcher Planner: Week 20Wilson Karaman2014-08-08
Daily League Strategy: Splurging on BatsPaul Sporer2014-08-01
This article requires BP Premium accessRaising Aces: Outta NowhereDoug Thorburn2014-07-18
This article requires BP Fantasy or Premium accessFantasy Starting Pitcher Planner: Week 17Wilson Karaman2014-07-18
This article requires BP Premium accessPainting the Black: The Stealth StealsR.J. Anderson2014-07-17
This article requires BP Fantasy or Premium accessFantasy Freestyle: 10 Crazy Predictions Fantasy Writers Should Have MadeMike Gianella2014-07-15
This article requires BP Premium accessWhat You Need to Know: Edwin Ends OneDaniel Rathman2014-07-03
This article requires BP Premium accessWhat You Need to Know: Edwin Ends OneChris Mosch2014-07-03
Overthinking It: June in Catcher FramingBen Lindbergh2014-07-02
This article requires BP Premium accessRaising Aces: Houston, We Have Lift-OffDoug Thorburn2014-06-27
This article requires BP Fantasy or Premium accessFantasy Starting Pitcher Planner: Week 14Wilson Karaman2014-06-27
This article requires BP Premium accessOverthinking It: The Players PECOTA Has MissedBen Lindbergh2014-06-19
This article requires BP Fantasy or Premium accessFantasy Freestyle: A Deeper Look at FAAB in Deeper LeaguesMike Gianella2014-06-18
The Lineup Card: 9 Unexpected Storylines of the Season to DateBaseball Prospectus2014-06-12
This article requires BP Premium accessWhat You Need to Know: A Modern-Day Greg Maddux?Chris Mosch2014-06-04
BP Unfiltered: This Week in Bunting to Beat the Shift, 5/23Chris Mosch2014-05-23
BP Unfiltered: This Week in Bunting to Beat the Shift, 5/23Ben Lindbergh2014-05-23
BP Unfiltered: This Week's New Pitching Lines, 5/23Sam Miller2014-05-23
This article requires BP Fantasy or Premium accessFantasy Starting Pitcher Planner: Week NineWilson Karaman2014-05-23
This article requires BP Premium accessTransaction Analysis: Call MiloneR.J. Anderson2014-05-12
This article requires BP Fantasy or Premium accessFantasy Starting Pitcher Planner: Week SevenWilson Karaman2014-05-09
The Week in Quotes: April 28 - May 4Nick Wheatley-Schaller2014-05-05
The Week in Quotes: April 28 - May 4Chris Mosch2014-05-05
The Week in Quotes: April 28 - May 4Nick Bacarella2014-05-05
The Week in Quotes: April 21-27Morris Greenberg2014-04-28
The Week in Quotes: April 21-27Nick Wheatley-Schaller2014-04-28
The Week in Quotes: April 21-27Nick Bacarella2014-04-28
The Week in Quotes: April 21-27Chris Mosch2014-04-28
BP Unfiltered: This Week's New Pitching Lines, 4/25Sam Miller2014-04-25
This article requires BP Fantasy or Premium accessFree Agent Watch: Week FourMike Gianella2014-04-24
This article requires BP Fantasy or Premium accessFree Agent Watch: Week FourBret Sayre2014-04-24
This article requires BP Premium accessWhat You Need to Know: Historic TuesdayDaniel Rathman2014-04-23
Daily League Strategy: Riding TigersPaul Sporer2014-04-22
This article requires BP Premium accessPlayoff Prospectus: NLDS Game Four Recap: Dodgers 4, Braves 3Daniel Rathman2013-10-08
This article requires BP Premium accessDaily Roundup: Around the League: September 28, 2013Clint Chisam2013-09-28
This article requires BP Premium accessDaily Roundup: Around the League: September 22, 2013Clint Chisam2013-09-22
This article requires BP Premium accessDaily Roundup: Around the League: September 21, 2013Clint Chisam2013-09-21
This article requires BP Premium accessDaily Roundup: Around the League: September 16, 2013Clint Chisam2013-09-16
This article requires BP Premium accessDaily Roundup: Around the League: September 4, 2013Clint Chisam2013-09-04
This article requires BP Premium accessDaily Roundup: Around the League: July 29, 2013Clint Chisam2013-07-29
This article requires BP Premium accessDaily Roundup: Around the League: July 28, 2013Clint Chisam2013-07-28
This article requires BP Premium accessDaily Roundup: Around the League: July 26, 2013Clint Chisam2013-07-26
This article requires BP Premium accessTransaction Analysis: Cheery OsR.J. Anderson2013-06-21
This article requires BP Premium accessDaily Roundup: Around the League: June 19, 2013Clint Chisam2013-06-19
This article requires BP Premium accessTransaction Analysis: The Profar-Free TAR.J. Anderson2013-06-17
This article requires BP Premium accessDaily Roundup: Around the League: June 16, 2013Clint Chisam2013-06-16
This article requires BP Premium accessDaily Roundup: Around the League: June 9, 2013Clint Chisam2013-06-09
This article requires BP Premium accessDaily Roundup: Around the League: June 2, 2013Clint Chisam2013-06-02
This article requires BP Premium accessDaily Roundup: Around the League: May 15th, 2013Clint Chisam2013-05-15
This article requires BP Premium accessPebble Hunting: Watching the Worst Game of 2012Sam Miller2013-03-01
This article requires BP Premium accessSkewed Left: The Sunk Costs of 2013Zachary Levine2013-01-30
This article requires BP Premium accessRumor Roundup: Wednesday, January 30Daniel Rathman2013-01-30
This article requires BP Premium accessTransaction Analysis: Royals Carry a Mig StickR.J. Anderson2013-01-02
This article requires BP Premium accessMinor League Update: Games of September 10Bradley Ankrom2012-09-11
This article requires BP Premium accessMinor League Update: Games of September 3Bradley Ankrom2012-09-04
The Week in Quotes: August 20-26Hudson Belinsky2012-08-27
The Week in Quotes: August 20-26Andrew Koo2012-08-27
The Week in Quotes: August 20-26Jonah Birenbaum2012-08-27
The Week in Quotes: August 20-26Matthew Rocco2012-08-27
This article requires BP Premium accessFuture Shock Blog: Minor League Update: Games of September 1Kevin Goldstein2011-09-02


BP Chats

DateQuestionAnswer
2014-06-13 13:00:00 (link to chat)What are your thoughts on Collin McHugh now? Is he just going to be a flash in the pan or will he have sustained success?
(Danny from Chicago)
I'm really starting to buy in. The strikeouts seem legit, particularly with that curveball. He may be more of a mid-3.00s ERA guy by season's end, but the punchouts will keep him viable (Paul Sporer)
2014-05-02 14:00:00 (link to chat)Hi Doug: Can you evaluate the relative strengths/weaknesses of the Astro three of Jarred Cosart, Dallas Keuchel, and Collin McHugh. My general take is that Cosart has stuff, but control issues limit his upside, Keuchel seems to have harnessed something to start the 2014 season and from what I've read has his share of supporters at BP, and then McHugh I realize has small sample size, but does he have a chance to sustain some amount of the success of his first two starts or is he reversion waiting to happen. I saw that the Astros pitching coach said that he wasn't the same pitcher in late April that he was in spring trainer. Your thoughts on the three and whether any of them are long-term starters (or bullpen or minor-league bound) are appreciated. Thanks.
(Drifter from Long Branch )
I really like Cosart's baseline mechanics, with average or better grades in every category except for Repetition. But there's the rub, because repetition is by far the most important grade on the mechanics report card, and he won't approach ceiling until he can find consistency with his delivery. He is also a 2-pitch guy, essentially, and though he throws very hard, he will need to refine the cambio if he hopes to find sustained success in the rotation.

Keuchel is an example of a pitcher who is very well-balanced but who utilizes a very slow delivery as part of that approach. The pedestrian pace opens up the chance to mistime his delivery and necessitates a different timing pattern from the stretch. Command is key for a pitcher with a 90-mph fastball, and Keuchel has the underpinnings of a pitcher who will struggle with that element at times.

I have not yet had the chance to watch McHugh, but I'm looking forward to seeing him in action. (Doug Thorburn)
2014-04-29 13:00:00 (link to chat)Hi RJ, curious if there is a recent precedent for what Collin McHugh is doing, and if so, how long was Quality Start performance sustained by the precedent? Andrew Albers comes to mind, but I think they're different pitchers.
(Drifter from Long Branch)
Albers is a good call as a pop-up type. Maybe Scott Diamond as well? Back in 2012 he had a pretty good ERA for a few months there. It's funny because McHugh's comment in the annual wasn't the least bit optimistic:

After another disastrous season—this one split between the Mets and Rockies, preceding an offseason waiver claim by the Astros—it's time to ask what McHugh really offers a major-league team. The only pitches he routinely throws for strikes—his fastball and slider—were hammered for slugging percentages over .550 (as was his sinker, at .952). His only asset appears to be his changeup, a groundball machine. But nothing about that arsenal suggests McHugh would succeed out of the bullpen, either—his fastball is just too hittable, and none of his breaking pitches have shown swing-and-miss movement. On second thought, maybe it's not time to ask the question, but rather to answer it.


Obviously pitchers can change, and maybe he's found something that works for him. My guess is he'll fade and we'll look back in a year at McHugh like we're doing right now with Albers and Diamond. There is something interesting about his profile: he's become less of a groundball pitcher thus far; not just in his two big-league appearances, but also in his 14 minor-league innings, too. I guess I should make an appointment to see his next start. (R.J. Anderson)
2014-04-24 13:00:00 (link to chat)So ... Collin McHugh. 12Ks (including 3 of Robbie Cano), 0BB doesn't scream fluke. He's obviously not an ace, and almost as obviously has a good shot at sticking as a number 5. My question is in the middle -- how likely is he to turn into a genuine mid-rotation guy?
(edwardarthur from Illinois)
It does scream fluke. Seattle should be embarrassed. I'd honestly be blown away if he sticks, let alone succeeds. (Paul Sporer)


BP Roundtables

No BP Roundtables have mentioned this guy.

 

PITCHf/x Pitcher Profile

A Collaboration between BrooksBaseball.net and Baseball Prospectus - Pitch classifications provided by Pitch Info LLC


Collin McHugh has thrown 3,569 pitches that have been tracked by the PITCHf/x system between 2011 and 2014, including pitches thrown in the MLB Regular Season and Fall/Winter Ball. In 2014, he has relied primarily on his Fourseam Fastball (92mph), Slider (87mph) and Curve (74mph), also mixing in a Change (84mph). He also rarely throws a Sinker (92mph) and Slow Curve (57mph).