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Casey Kelly PPadresPadres Player Cards | Padres Team Audit | Padres Depth Chart |
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2013 Projections (Preseason PECOTA - seasonal age 23)
| IP | ERA | WHIP | SO | W | L | SV | WARP |
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Standard
| YEAR | TEAM | AGE | G | GS | IP | IP-SP | IP-RP | W | L | SV | BS | QS | BQS | PA | H | R | ER | HR | TB | BB | UBB | HBP | SO | ERA | FIP | FRA | VORP | WARP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2012 | SDN | 22 | 6 | 6 | 29.0 | 29.0 | 0.0 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 136 | 39 | 23 | 20 | 5 | 62 | 10 | 9 | 2 | 26 | 6.21 | 4.83 | 5.14 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| Career | 6 | 6 | 29.0 | 29.0 | 0.0 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 136 | 39 | 23 | 20 | 5 | 62 | 10 | 9 | 2 | 26 | 6.21 | 4.83 | 5.14 | 0.4 | 0.1 | ||
Advanced
'opp' stats - quality of opponents faced - have been moved and are available only as OPP_QUAL in the Statistics reports now.| YEAR | Team | Lg | G | GS | IP | FRA | FRA+ | TAv | oppAVG | oppOBP | oppSLG | oppTAv | BABIP | PPF | PVORP | PWARP | VORP | WARP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2009 | GRN | A | 9 | 9 | 48.3 | 3.26 | 125 | .179 | .257 | .324 | .369 | .261 | .237 | 99 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 2009 | SLM | A+ | 8 | 8 | 46.7 | 4.83 | 94 | .210 | .260 | .337 | .390 | .263 | .221 | 101 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 2010 | PME | AA | 21 | 21 | 95.0 | 4.61 | 105 | .297 | .265 | .341 | .412 | .268 | .366 | 106 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 2010 | PEJ | Wnt | 4 | 4 | 16.0 | 0.00 | 0 | .000 | .000 | .000 | .000 | .000 | .283 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | |
| 2011 | SAN | AA | 27 | 27 | 142.3 | 4.49 | 108 | .224 | .247 | .309 | .371 | .252 | .267 | 99 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 2012 | SDN | MLB | 6 | 6 | 29.0 | 5.14 | 72 | .331 | .280 | .341 | .450 | .278 | .366 | 93 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2012 | SAN | AA | 3 | 3 | 16.7 | 3.51 | 125 | .189 | .273 | .345 | .420 | .280 | .244 | 85 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 2012 | TUC | AAA | 2 | 2 | 12.0 | 2.36 | 159 | .199 | .278 | .346 | .450 | .277 | .364 | 110 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 2012 | PDR | Rk | 3 | 3 | 9.0 | 4.58 | 133 | .322 | .286 | .371 | .594 | .455 | .333 | 113 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| Career | MLB | 6 | 29.0 | 5.25 | 80 | .316 | .280 | .341 | .450 | .273 | .366 | 102 | 1.1 | 0.1 | 1.4 | 0.2 | ||
Statistics For All Levels
| Year | Team | Lg | W | L | SV | G | GS | IP | H | BB | SO | HR | GB% | BABIP | H/9 | BB/9 | HR/9 | K/9 | WHIP | ERA | VORP | WARP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2009 | SLM | A+ | 1 | 4 | 0 | 8 | 8 | 46.7 | 33 | 7 | 35 | 4 | 53% | .221 | 6.4 | 1.3 | 0.8 | 6.7 | 0.86 | 3.08 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 2009 | GRN | A | 6 | 1 | 0 | 9 | 9 | 48.3 | 32 | 9 | 39 | 0 | 54% | .237 | 6.0 | 1.7 | 0.0 | 7.3 | 0.85 | 1.12 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 2010 | PEJ | Wnt | 1 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 4 | 16.0 | 19 | 4 | 11 | 2 | 0% | .283 | 10.7 | 2.2 | 1.1 | 6.2 | 1.44 | 6.75 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 2010 | PME | AA | 3 | 5 | 0 | 21 | 21 | 95.0 | 118 | 35 | 81 | 10 | 47% | .366 | 11.2 | 3.3 | 0.9 | 7.7 | 1.61 | 5.31 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 2011 | SAN | AA | 11 | 6 | 0 | 27 | 27 | 142.3 | 153 | 46 | 105 | 8 | 55% | .267 | 9.7 | 2.9 | 0.5 | 6.6 | 1.40 | 3.98 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 2012 | PDR | Rk | 0 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 3 | 9.0 | 10 | 0 | 7 | 0 | 33% | .333 | 10.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 7.0 | 1.11 | 4.00 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 2012 | TUC | AAA | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 12.0 | 12 | 0 | 14 | 0 | 55% | .364 | 9.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 10.5 | 1.00 | 2.25 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 2012 | SAN | AA | 0 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 3 | 16.7 | 11 | 3 | 18 | 1 | 45% | .244 | 5.9 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 9.7 | 0.84 | 3.78 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 2012 | SDN | MLB | 2 | 3 | 0 | 6 | 6 | 29.0 | 39 | 10 | 26 | 5 | 57% | .366 | 12.1 | 3.1 | 1.6 | 8.1 | 1.69 | 6.21 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
Injury History beta
| Date On | Date Off | Transaction | Days | Games | Side | Body Part | Injury | Severity | Surgery Date | Reaggravation |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2013-03-22 | - | 60-DL | - | - | Right | Elbow | Recovery From Sprain | UCL Ligament | - | - |
| 2013-03-08 | 2013-03-22 | Camp | 14 | 0 | Right | Elbow | Sprain | UCL Ligament | - | - |
| 2012-04-12 | 2012-08-10 | Minors | 120 | 0 | Right | Elbow | Inflammation | - | - | |
| 2010-08-07 | 2010-09-07 | Minors | 31 | 0 | Right | Shoulder | Strain | Latissimus Dorsi | - | |
| 2010-07-22 | 2010-07-31 | Minors | 9 | 0 | Not Disclosed | - |
Compensation
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BP Articles
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BP Chats
| Date | Question | Answer |
|---|---|---|
| 2011-10-17 13:00:00 | Is Casey Kelly in that Aaron Hicks category? Looks great, but the performance doesn't seem to be there. Is there still #2 upside with him or is he more of a innings guy in your opinion? (BrowningNagle from Louisville, KY) | Yes. He's the starter on the "Why Isn't This Guy Better?" team. (Kevin Goldstein) |
| 2010-12-14 13:00:00 | I'd also been overconfidently thinking this morning of Greinke-to-Boston possibilities. What sort of package might get that done? The Royals seem a bit weak up the middle, so Ellsbury-Lowrie seems an easy starting point, but now-Padre Casey Kelly seemed the Sox' obvious "pitcher who could be Greinke in a year or two." And at what point does speculating about that just become unfair Yankee-needling? (Brendan from Boston) | To get Greinke, I think you have to accept that Buchholz is in Royals/Red Sox deal. Ellsbury and Lowrie are nice, but hardly blue-chip talents; they're the add-ons. However, I don't think the Sox can make this deal--or any deal including Ellsbury--until March, when they and their dance partner know more about both Ellsbury and Cameron and how well they're coming back from injury. (Christina Kahrl) |
| 2010-12-14 13:00:00 | Would it be feasible to groom Casey Kelly as a SP and defensive specialist at SS? Have I been thinking entirely too much about baseball this cold winter? (EricJ from SF) | I bugged Kevin with exactly that kind of question a couple of years ago, and got reality-checked for my trouble. I'd put it in that bulging "ain't gonna happen" file. (Christina Kahrl) |
| 2010-12-07 13:00:00 | You support this move for the Sox? Why not let it ride and have a choice of Agonz, Fielder or Pujols after 2011 with no NYY in the mix. I don't know how much money sox save on Gonzalez with the rumored numbers being mentioned. (SK from DC) | Absolutely. First off, Fielder isn't that great. Terrible defensive first baseman, and really, do we know if he's a pretty good hitter or a great hitter yet? He never seems to be the same thing two years in a row, and he needs to be excellent all the time to make up for that glove. I don't think Pujols is leaving St. Louis--other teams would be in the mix solely to make sure the Cards pay up.
The Cubs love Adrian Gonzalez, and have the money to throw at him in 2012 if he was available. Eight teams inquired about him in a trade, so there is interest there. Anthony Rizzo has no future in the organization if the Sox are acquiring a first baseman anyways, so this is basically trading Casey Kelly and Reymond Fuentes for the rights to Gonzalez in 2011, as well as the right to negotiate with him during the season. I'm very optimistic he'll be signed well before the season is over. If Boston gets Gonzalez for $22M a year, then this is a steal. Just assume $5M per win for a minute, Gonzalez is something like a $25-30M win player a year. Getting him for less money than Ryan Howard is silly, but I'll take it. (Marc Normandin) |
| 2010-12-07 13:00:00 | So you Red Sox joy counterbalances your Padres' sadness on the Gonzalez deal? (formersd from San Diego) | There really isn't any Padres' sadness, honestly. Here is my thinking.
As great as Adrian Gonzalez is--and he's one of the top players in the game--he is one guy. The Padres had reason to believe the 2011 team could be a bit better, with an improved rotation, a full season of (healthy) Ryan Ludwick, Cameron Maybin possibly blossoming in center with another year in the majors, Kyle Blanks coming back from his TJ surgery, etc. If they acquire Brendan Ryan in a trade to man shortstop as is expected, and then sign someone like Derrek Lee to play first base, then you're talking about a team that could still win something like 82-85 games. Then, in 2012, you have Casey Kelly, Anthony Rizzo, Simon Castro and maybe Drew Cumberland coming up if he continues to tear up the minors. That is an exciting roster all of a sudden, and it was brought about without fielding a terrible team. The Padres can trade Bell and Ludwick in July and still have a decent team, assuming Aaron Cunningham or Kyle Blanks can slot into Ludwick's place and they bump Mike Adams up to the role of closer. The gloom and doom mentality coming out of San Diego after the trade of Adrian Gonzalez is almost enough to make me start a Padres' blog in response. (Marc Normandin) |
| 2010-12-07 13:00:00 | How intent, if at all , is BOS in moving Dice-K? He might make a nice pickup forCubs in a swap of so-so contracts. (Matt from Chicago) | I don't think they are desperate to move him or anything, but he does represent the only rotation spot they can mess with until 2014, so if the right opportunity presents itself they may do it. They may be a little more loathe to do so now that Casey Kelly is gone, as Felix Doubront is the lone high-minors pitching prospect they have left, but they are definitely listening if people ask. (Marc Normandin) |
| 2010-07-01 14:00:00 | How much has the stock dropped for Casey Kelly. What do you see his upside as? (Mike from Utica,NY) | I'm not sure it's dropped ALL that much. I talked to a scout about him yesterday. He said all the stuff from last year is there, but he's throwing way too many strikes and leaving a lot of balls right in hitter's wheelhouse. He wanted to see Kelly get more aggressive and find a mean streak, but he had no issues with the stuff. (Kevin Goldstein) |
| 2010-03-03 14:00:00 | KG, how about some lightning round? Quicker to the majors: Westmoreland or Casey Kelly? (Bud Light Golden Wheat from Has a robust flavor, but so does sewage) | Kelly, just less of a ceiling. I've already gone more than four hours, but I have some time, so keep 'em coming. (Kevin Goldstein) |
| 2009-12-01 13:00:00 | Hey Mark,
Using the Santana Trade as a template: Is a trade of Boston players: Casey Kelly (5 star prospect), Jed Lowrie (MLB Utility INF possible SS/2B), plus a B/B- level prospect like a Gibson (SS)[Navarro (INF) or Lin (OF)] for Doc Halladay work?
Remember, Santana netted the Twins Carlos Gomez, great defense with a progressing bat, and the Mulvey/Humber/Guerra trio. Not a very impressive bevy of pitchers.
In short, Minnosota received 1 really good player plus some filler in the trade - due to Santana's trade demands, his potential extention price tag and having only 1 year left on the existing contract.
The Blue Jays can't possibly get much more than the Twins received in their Trade? (Steven from New England) | I think Minnesota's deal would actually be a reason to expect the Jays to get more, as they will hold out as long as they can until someone is desperate enough to cave in to their demands. I'm not sure how accurate the reports are, but I kept hearing that the Sox would have to give up both Kelley and Clay Buchholz to make this work. I'm not sure how I feel about that, as much as I love Halladay. (Marc Normandin) |
| 2009-10-09 13:30:00 | Where would you rank Casey Kelly in terms of pitching prospects? Is he more front end/ace rotation stuff, or 2-3 type? (Adam from Norfolk, VA) | I'd rank him pretty damn high, but I do think his ceiling is 2-3. That's not an insult AT ALL. 1s are crazy rare -- even 2s and 3s are. (Kevin Goldstein) |
| 2009-07-21 13:00:00 | What does Casey Kelly have to do to get another shot at playing shortstop? (Nick Smith from Allston, MA) | Well, he kinda sorta has that shot now, doesn't he? Baseball can be unpredictable, so assuming that his future is sure-fire as a pitcher based on, essentially half a season, is...iffy. Kelly has clearly been superb on the mound this season, and will presumably leap near the top of KG's Red Sox top 11 next spring, but it's early. Very early. (David Laurila) |
| 2009-07-15 14:00:00 | Is Lars still the Red Sox best prospect or has Casey Kelly passed him? (Jack from Boston) | I'd take Kelly over Anderson pretty easily. (Kevin Goldstein) |
| 2009-07-15 14:00:00 | Has Casey Kelly moved into your personal top 10 pitching prospects? (Jeremy from Boston) | TEN? Probably a bit strong for me. (Kevin Goldstein) |
| 2009-03-19 15:00:00 | Is there anyone in the Boston system that you're particularly excited to see debut this year? (Rob from Brighton) | Tons of guys. The '08 draft is full of guys like Westmoreland and Hissey, not to mention (while he has already played some), 1st round pick Casey Kelly getting some time at shortstop and starting pitcher. (Kevin Goldstein) |
BP Roundtables
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