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Updated 3:17 am Pac, May 19 2013 Click a column header to sort by that column. Click again to reverse sort order. Mouse over a column header link to see the definition, or click the This page is currently grouped by division and sorted by Sim Win descending.
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Surprise Me!
So PECOTA projects the Orioles as being worse than every team in the American League except the Twins and the Astros. If I recall correctly, last year the projection was that the Orioles would be the worst team in the American League. We know how that turned out.
I confidently predict that the Orioles will not be the 3rd worst team in the American League
amen.
They were a team that played above their heads last year and still had a below-.500 third-order win percentage. Meanwhile teams like the Red Sox and the Jays have done quite an overhaul this offseason. I don't think it's all that hard to see where PECOTA is coming from, even if you disagree with it.
I don't understand the "played above their heads" part of your comment. The 3rd order stuff, I do get. In what sense did they play over their heads?
They lost blow outs early in the season started by pitchers that were gone by mid season. They won close games on the strength of a bullpen that performed among the best in the game. The weak starters were replaced by mid season, the bullpen continued to excel, and in the second half their W/L performance footed to their run differential. The "outperform" notion is a fair, to an extent, explanation of their April-June last year.
Given that they have close to a dozen starter candidates in camp, I wouldn't be the least bit surprised to see a directionally similar result this season. Early results may be all over the map as they sort through who starts, who moves to the bullpen and who moves to Bowie. With the likely arrival of Bundy and/or Gausman by mid-season, and a survivor bias among the other pitchers, it would be perfectly reasonable for their real W/L record to be "inexplicable" to Pecota.
I'll take the "over", in other words.
They were a team that won close games and lost blowouts in the first half as they sorted through their roster. From roughly the All Star break on they were one of the top 5 teams in MLB, with a win% and run differential that correlated "properly".
They didn't do much this winter...but with Bundy and Gausmann close, Machado already there and returning defensive plus strength up the middle in Weiter, Hardy and Jones, there wasn't that much to do, was there?
Last season Pecota never adjusted for the fact that the O's roster turned over more than any other, that they had a very different team on the field by mid season from the one that broke camp. That was short-sighted, and explains why it missed so badly in helping fans understand how the season unfolded down the stretch.
What you call "short-sighted" I call "not buying into a post hoc rationalization." I'm reminded of the Diamondbacks from a few years ago, where a lot of people were convinced that they had figured out the secret to effective bullpen management until the following season when everything fell apart.
It's not post hoc when you make the observation in real time. I enjoyed their first half success, but had no faith it was sustainable. But very early into the second half it was apparent that there we a number of different players on the field...it was a different team. Literally, a different team.
Yes, bullpen success has a "lightning in a bottle" quality.
What I take issue with is Pecota seemed to make no adjustments for roster turnover. That continues to strike me as short sighted.
Last season the Orioles set a major league record for best record in 1 run games, and had (if memory serves) 16 straight extra inning wins. While I love my Orioles, I do not expect them to match either accomplishment in 2013.
The Orioles could very possibly be a "better" team in 2013 than in 2012, and have a worse record because of last year's record in close games.
I do think that the Orioles will be a "better" team in 2013 than in 2012 because of the factors cited above.
I will take the over on both PECOTA's projection of 75 wins, and Vegas' over/under of 76 1/2.
Repeating 93 wins will be tough.
They torched their pythag record in the second half by 4.5 wins which was just short of their first half record which was 6.5 wins over pythag. They were almost as lucky in the second half as the first. They were a better team in the second half but still not as good as their .623 record.
An extraordinary July, if memory serves, where they played terribly and still put up a ~500 record. From the promotion of Machado to the end of the year, they were pretty close to their pythag.
How could Pecota adjust for for roster turnover?
By analyzing whether the roster moves made by FOTs exhibit skill to any statistically significant degree. And then applying that correction to teams in a position to churn certain rsoter spots (for instance, a team with borderline replacement level players at one or more positions, with demonstrated ability to find above replacement level players, may benefit from cycling new players into the roster spot).
Last year Duquette reworked the O's pitching staff several times over, and ended up with a rotation and bullpen that took the Yanx to the 5th game of the ALDS. Was his FOT work luck or skill? I dunno...might be something interesting for BP to look at.
I hope you are joking. A player projection system does not try to project front office moves. If you are that certain you know what a front office will do, apply that knowledge to the raw projections yourself.
Their projected winning percentage of this season is lower than their real, first order, second order, or third order winning percentage of last year despite the AL East getting weaker, and the orioles presumably getting stronger (A lot of players moving into their prime). They finished with a positive first order winning percentage, and had an elite bullpen last season, which causes a lot more close wins. Fangraphs said their bullpen broke the record for WPA last year, which is at least partially due to elite bullpen management from Showalter, a manager whom I believe BP has mentioned in several articles that he is a good manager.
Im not even saying the orioles are a .500 team. Im saying it is ridiculous to project them as a .468 quality team. .490? ok, id buy it, I would think its low, but accept PETOCA for what it is. As it stands, it seems to be pretty considerably off.
I think someone on here did an article mentioning a conference where a conversation was had that noted sabermetrics people tend to write everything off as variance rather than seeing if they are potentially missing something.
I mean, lets look at some of the players on the team. Chris Davis is the easiest one for obvious reasons. Your projection system has his 50th percentile as DECLINING from his last season stats. You projected his WPA to go from 2.6 last season to 1.4 this season. WHOOPS, he has 1.3 WPA and its APRIL. he has to play replacement level for the rest of the season to live up to your projections.
And it doesnt take hindsight to know this was a bad projection. He had a breakout year last year, and his improvement during the season was obvious.
Adam Jones 50th percentile is projected to do worse than ANY Of the past 3 years despite a breakout season last year, and nothing to indicate him getting worse.
It has been 189 games, the orioles are STILL winning. They have been 108-81. How many games will it take?
sorry I meant to say "WARP" for Davis, not WPA.
PECOTA has passed through the "sample size", "variance" and "regression" stages of grief. Now we're in the "radio silence" phase.
At this point I'm just waiting for the "oops, we found the coding error" phase.
Yes, but has PECOTA factored in that this year we have the ghost of Earl Weaver to help us? ;)