Newsletter: Sunday, August 19, 2012
IMPORTANT ANNOUNCEMENT: Introducing the latest in the great line of Baseball
Prospectus publications...The Call-Up 2012 e-book! Click for details:
http://bbp.cx/a/17651
MEDIA
BP chat
Bradley Ankrom - BP Chat moderated by Bradley Ankrom. Click
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question.
08-20 1:00 PM EST
NEW BASIC CONTENT
Tater Trot Tracker
Trot Times for August 17
by Larry Granillo
The tater trots for August 17: Giancarlo Stanton crushes the ball in Coors
Field, Bryce Harper returns to form.
http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=18062
WHAT YOU NEED TO KNOW: AUGUST 19
THE THURSDAY TAKEAWAY
When Tommy Hanson returns from the disabled list to pitch tonight’s series
opener against the Dodgers, he will complete the Braves’ six-man rotation, an
approach manager Fredi Gonzalez intends to employ for the rest of the month in
an effort to foster both health and competition among his starters. Come
September, one member of the sextet will be relegated to the bullpen—but don’t
necessarily expect it to be the one who began the season there.
Kris Medlen appeared in only two major-league games last year, after
undergoing Tommy John surgery in August 2010, but he returned in top form this
spring, and rose up the ranks in the Braves relief corps by posting a 2.95 ERA
in 31 appearances before the All-Star break. The right-hander pitched three
innings in relief of Hanson on July 25 and joined the rotation six days later,
immediately after Hanson hit the shelf with a lower-back strain. Now, Medlen
might be Gonzalez’s most trustworthy starter.
With 18 big-league starts under his belt, Medlen wasn’t exactly a novice when
he switched roles last month, but he had only pitched into the eighth inning
twice, most recently on June 13, 2010. He did not complete the seventh in any
of his first three starts this year, mostly because Gonzalez was wary of
stretching him out too quickly. On Thursday, the kid gloves came off, and
Medlen—backed by Chipper Jones’ first multi-homer game since June 7,
2009—needed only 106 pitches to finish a 6-0 blanking of the Padres, the first
complete-game shutout of his career.
That, and the fact that Medlen has compiled a 2.46 FIP (22-to-4 K/BB, one home
run allowed) to go with a 1.05 ERA since moving into the rotation, is the good
news. So, what’s the caveat?
Perhaps by design, or perhaps by luck of the draw, Medlen’s first four starts
have come against some of the feeblest offenses in the National League. He
made his 2012 rotation debut against the Marlins, who had just traded Hanley
Ramirez and were still without Giancarlo Stanton, then hosted the Astros, who
are currently a league-worst 12-48 on the road. The Mets offered a stiffer
test, and the Padres entered yesterday’s game with a league-average 704 team
OPS away from Petco Park, but Medlen still has not taken on a team within 15
games of first place.
With two weeks left until the Braves move back to a five-man rotation on Aug.
31, Gonzalez essentially has two more starts on which to evaluate Medlen
against Hanson, Ben Sheets—who “was like Bernie” from Weekend at Bernie’s
after his most recent outing—and Mike Minor, who has recovered from a rough
first half to log a 2.39 ERA since the break. Assuming no further changes are
made to the pitching schedule, Medlen’s remaining assignments this month will
come at Washington on Aug. 22 and at San Diego on Aug. 28. Thus, he will face
only one contender in six trips before Gonzalez and general manager Frank Wren
are forced to render a verdict.
The Braves, who came into the season with as much pitching depth as any team
in the league, have witnessed firsthand how quickly it can evaporate. Wren
fortified his staff by acquiring Paul Maholm from the Cubs at the trade
deadline, and that move, coupled with Medlen’s successful transition, has
restored a good deal of the depth lost when Brandon Beachy, Jair Jurrjens,
Randall Delgado, and Julio Teheran—because of injuries or
ineffectiveness—could not keep their spots in the rotation.
Only time will tell if Medlen’s impressive run is a sign of things to come or
a figment of his cakewalk schedule. But as the 69-49 Braves attempt to chase
down the first-place Nationals, who sit four games ahead at a league-best
73-45, his performance down the stretch could make or break their chances of
notching the organization’s first division title since 2005.
WHAT TO WATCH FOR THIS WEEKEND
The Yankees made a statement by taking three of four from the Rangers and
regaining the American League’s best record at 70-48, and now they will
welcome the Red Sox, who are 58-61 following a series loss in Baltimore.
Boston’s offense figures to pose a challenge for Phil Hughes, who was shelled
for 11 runs on 17 hits over 8 1/3 innings in his last two starts, both of
which came on the road. The long ball has been Hughes’ Achilles heel at Yankee
Stadium, but David Ortiz—who has gone 9-for-20 with two homers in their past
meetings—remains on the disabled list with, fittingly, an Achilles strain.
Bobby Valentine will counter with Franklin Morales in the series opener
(Friday, 7:05 p.m. ET).
***
Speaking of the Orioles, after dumping the Red Sox down to six back in the
wild card standings, they are heading to Detroit to try to fend off the
Tigers, who are just a game behind. It won’t be easy, as the home team will
send Justin Verlander—who held the potent Yankees and Rangers offenses to just
one combined earned run while logging a 22-to-1 K/BB in 15 innings over his
last two trips—to the mound in game one. Verlander is 7-0 with a 2.71 ERA in
10 career starts versus Baltimore. Then again, his opponent, Tommy Hunter, has
allowed only one run in 14 career innings versus Detroit (Friday, 7:05 p.m.
ET).
***
Falling 2 ½ games behind in the wild card race, as the Angels did by losing
7-0 to the Rays last night, is worrisome enough. For now, though, Mike
Scioscia’s squad might as well concern itself with the little things—like,
say, scoring a run against Rays pitching, which it has not done in the last 32
innings of play between the teams. Meanwhile, James Shields, who was one of
the Angels’ deadline targets before they landed Zack Greinke, appears to be
cured of his July malaise, having surrendered only three earned runs over his
last three starts. The 30-year-old righty is 5-3 with a 3.01 ERA in 11 career
tries against the Halos, including two complete games and one shutout. If the
Angels can get to Shields, they’ll have an excellent chance to even the
four-game series behind Jered Weaver, who owns a 1.23 ERA at the Big ‘A’ this
season (Friday, 10:05 p.m. ET).
***
After dropping three straight games, the Athletics badly needed a win in
Thursday’s series finale at Kauffman Stadium, and they got it in shutout
fashion behind rookie Daniel Straily. Fellow first-year Yoenis Cespedes, who
had not chipped in an extra-base hit since July 28, delivered a solo shot in
the seventh inning, and Oakland will need him to stay hot on the upcoming
homestand, during which the team will commemorate its 20-game winning streak
from 10 years ago. The first 15,000 fans through the gates for the middle
match will receive this Scott Hatteberg bobblehead, which may rank among the
best giveaways of the year (Saturday, 9:05 p.m. ET).
***
The Dodgers lost the series finale in Pittsburgh, 10-6, but they now enjoy a
half-game lead over the Giants in the National League West, and after this
weekend’s three-game set in Atlanta, they will only have to traverse the Rocky
Mountains one more time before the end of the regular season. Chad Billingsley
has earned a win in each of his past five starts, after losing each of the
previous five, and the big northpaw will try to keep the ball rolling in the
series finale. Jason Heyward and Dan Uggla are a combined 2-for-24 lifetime
against Billingsley, who has not served up a home run in 24 1/3 career innings
(four starts) at Turner Field (Sunday, 1:35 p.m. ET).
PODCASTS
EFFECTIVELY WILD, THE DAILY BP PODCAST - EPISODE 23: BENCHING BRYCE HARPER
http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=18051
BP PODCAST EPISODE 101: LET'S NOT EVEN TRY
After our big celebration for Episode 100, we're back to normality, or at
least as normal as the show gets. We talk about the Manny Machado call-up,
some prospects that we are higher or lower than most on, and also just what to
make of Austin Wood. Then we try to gauge Mike Trout's value (good luck) and
talk about scouting little league games. Our special guest is a good friend of
the show in Andy McCullough of the Newark Star-Ledger who talks about the
future of the Mets, and then our listener of the week is the amazing Craig
Robinson, better known to many of you as the Flip Flop Flyin' guy. From there
it's the goofy stuff with a tribute to the late, great Juan Deli, and some
talk about weird neighbors ... and mattresses.
http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=17979
BP FANTASY PODCAST EPISODE 16: IT IS NOT ALL LUCK
Jason and Paul begin with the pitchers, hitting on Mike Fiers and Chad
Billingsley among starters, and then moving on to discuss Jeremy Affeldt's
value in the Giants' new closer-by-committee bullpen arrangement.
Recently-promoted rookies, Manny Machado and Starling Marte, highlight the
hitters discussed in the second hour. All that and much more at the link
below.
http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=17978
ANNOUNCEMENTS
BASEBALL PROSPECTUS 2012 APP NOW AVAILABLE
At long last, the Baseball Prospectus 2012 annual app is now available for the
iPhone, iPod Touch, and iPad. Follow your favorite MLB teams and players
throughout the season with Baseball Prospectus analysis that includes team
overviews, player assessments, detailed stats, and 2012 projections for over
2000 players. All of that and more for just $4.99 if you purchase it in the
next two weeks. For more information and to access the download page, click
the link below.
http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=16776
BALLPARK EVENT TICKETS NOW ON SALE
Join your favorite BP writers and industry insiders at our upcoming ballpark
events. For more information and to purchase tickets, click the links below.
September 15 at Dodger Stadium in Los Angeles: http://bbp.cx/a/18042
BROOKS BASEBALL AT BP
The outstanding PITCHf/x work of Dan Brooks, Harry Pavlidis, and co. is now
available through BP. For more details on the integration of Brooks Baseball,
see the post by Joe Hamrahi linked below:
bbp.cx/a/17621
SUBMIT A QUESTION TO THE RESEARCH MAILBAG
Got a burning baseball question you want answered? Submit it via email to
Bradley Ankrom (bankrom@baseballprospectus.com) and we'll do our best to find
the answer. Our research staff will select its favorite questions from the
batch and feature them in the mailbag the following week.
PLAYOFF ODDS AVAILABLE DAILY
The season is underway, and our playoff odds report is now updated to account
for the double wild card. Check it out here:
http://www.baseballprospectus.com/odds/
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