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Newsletter: Monday, July 30, 2012


MEDIA

BP chat
Josh Shepardson - BP Chat moderated by Josh Shepardson. Click
http://www.baseballprospectus.com/chat/chat.php?chatId=948 to join or submit a
question.
07-30 1:00 PM EST

WTMY - 1280 AM Sarasota, FL
Jason Collette - Jason joins the guys "in the box" to talk baseball each
Tuesday night at 9:18 ET
07-31 9:18 PM EST

NEW PREMIUM CONTENT

Future Shock
Monday Morning Ten Pack

by Kevin Goldstein

This weekend featured some outstanding play from a guy desperately needing a
change of scenery, and a guy who shouldn't get too used to his.

http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=17828

Prospectus Hit and Run
The Midsummer Replacement-Level Killers, Part II

by Jay Jaffe

Which players' sluggish seasons are dragging their contending teams down?

http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=17772

Pebble Hunting
The Oakland A's and Getting Past Windows

by Sam Miller

Should teams that aren't expected to contend really always be sellers?

http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=17822

Baseball Therapy
Seven Minutes of Terror

by Russell A. Carleton

What happens to closers when they don't know a save situation is coming?

http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=17825

Transaction Analysis
Astros Cash in Johnson for Prospects

by Kevin Goldstein and R.J. Anderson

Chris Johnson is dealt to Arizona for two former early-round picks.

http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=17821

Transaction Analysis
Kottaras to Oakland

by R.J. Anderson

The A's deal one-time potential closer Fautino de los Santos for catching
depth.

http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=17820

Transaction Analysis
Padres Get A Street Deal

by R.J. Anderson

The Padres lock up their successful closer, Huston Street, to a two- or
three-year extension.

http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=17819

NEW FANTASY CONTENT

Value Picks
Second, Short, and Catcher for 7/30/12

by Josh Shepardson

Chris Iannetta, George Kottaras, and Steve Lombardozzi get examined in this
week's VP.

http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=17824

Resident Fantasy Genius
Rating the Fantasy Impact of the Weekend's Transactions

by Derek Carty

With a new round of trades, Derek looks at the fantasy implications for these
players and the players around them.

http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=17823

NEW BASIC CONTENT

108 Stitches
Pulling Back the Curtain on the Trade Deadline

by Dan Evans

BP's resident former GM explains what the deadline is like for the people
pulling the trigger on trades.

http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=17826

The Week In Quotes
July 23-29

by Hudson Belinsky, Phil Birnbaum, Andrew Koo and Matthew Rocco

Running through the notable notes and quotes of the week that was.

http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=17816

BP Unfiltered
The Trade Deadline Transaction Analysis Thread

by Baseball Prospectus

Updated with links to the latest trade deadline transaction analysis.

http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=17827

What You Need to Know
Monday, July 30

by Daniel Rathman

The Giants and the Dodgers continue to search for upgrades as they are locked
atop the NL West standings.

http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=17815

WHAT YOU NEED TO KNOW: JULY 30

THE WEEKEND TAKEAWAY

The Giants blanked the Dodgers in a three-game series at AT&T Park in
late-June, turning a three-game gap in the National League West standings into
a tie. This past weekend, the Dodgers got their revenge, and the California
rivals are all even again.

When the teams met a month ago, Don Mattingly’s lineup did not include Matt
Kemp, who was on the disabled list with a strained left hamstring. This past
weekend, Bruce Bochy was forced to make do without Pablo Sandoval, who was on
the disabled list with a similar ailment.

From June 25-27, the Dodgers—with minor-league veteran Elian Herrera at third
base and Kemp on the shelf—could not score. During the past two days—with
Hanley Ramirez announcing his arrival with a two-run homer in the 10th inning
on Friday, and Marco Scutaro merely providing stability to a feckless Giants
infield—the shoe was on the other foot.

On Saturday, Ben Lindbergh cautioned against juxtaposing the latter
acquisition with the former. At their best, Ramirez is a difference maker for
Los Angeles and Scutaro a placeholder for San Francisco. But if one thing was
made clear by this weekend’s three games, it is that the Giants’ hopes may
hinge on Sandoval’s timely return.

Both teams will keep shopping as the clock ticks down to the trade deadline,
with a starting pitcher and outfielder topping Ned Colletti’s wish list and
reinforcements for the bullpen and bench heading Brian Sabean’s. Colletti did
not overreact when his team was outscored 13-0 at AT&T Park in June, and
Sabean probably won’t alter his July 31 priorities based on this past
weekend’s 19-3 affair. But as Ben wrote two days ago, “in the NL West, a bit
could be a big deal.”

In the meantime, for the Dodgers and the Giants, it’s a brand-new ballgame.
And the Diamondbacks, who have improved to an even 51-51 by winning seven of
their last 10, lurk only 4 ½ games back.

Ramirez has supplanted Juan Uribe, Scutaro is filling in for Sandoval, and
Chris Johnson—acquired from the Astros on Sunday—will try to provide a jolt
from Ryan Roberts’ old home in the desert. The health and performance of the
third basemen may be the difference in the division come Oct. 3.

It certainly was this weekend.

WHAT TO WATCH FOR ON MONDAY

With Zack Greinke joining the Angels rotation and the Rangers still scrambling
to add a pitcher before the trade deadline, the American League West race
figures to come down to the wire. Greinke made his Anaheim debut on Sunday and
will not pitch in the upcoming series, but the next four games could either
reassert Texas’ edge or bridge most of the 4 ½-game gap between the teams. Roy
Oswalt will get the ball for the first time since July 17, and tonight’s game
will mark his first junior-circuit showdown with Albert Pujols, who has more
plate appearances (105) against the 34-year-old right-hander than any other
player. Pujols has logged a 26-for-86 (.302 average) line with seven doubles
and five home runs in their past meetings (7:05 p.m. ET).

***

The Reds have won 10 games in a row. Not startling enough? Don’t forget that
they have done so without Joey Votto, who is on the disabled list with a knee
injury. Dusty Baker’s team (61-40) is now tied with the Nationals for the best
record in baseball and owns a three-game lead on second-place Pittsburgh in
the National League Central, with the third-place Cardinals half a game behind
the Pirates. As the Reds try to extend their surge to 11, they will take on
old friend Edinson Volquez, who tossed seven innings of one-run ball and
fanned 10 in a no-decision against trade-mate Mat Latos at Petco Park on July
5. Volquez has struck out 41 batters and allowed only seven earned runs in 40
2/3 innings (1.55 ERA) since June 24, and he will take on Mike Leake in his
first trip to Great American Ball Park since the offseason swap (7:10 p.m.
ET).

***

At one point in last week’s outing against the Marlins, Tommy Hanson’s line
included seven outs, four walks, and five stolen bases. By the time he was
pulled after five innings, the 25-year-old righty had walked a career-high
seven batters—yet the Marlins had scored only one run, and the Braves went on
to win, 7-1. That victory was the second in a winning streak that has since
grown to five, and Hanson will try to rein in the walks and steals to keep it
going in tonight’s rematch (7:10 p.m. ET).

***

Ricky Romero hit rock bottom in his last start—or, at least, it better have
been rock bottom because the lefty issued six walks and was charged with eight
runs in 1 1/3 innings against the A’s. Tonight’s game in Seattle, which offers
both a friendly opponent and a friendly ballpark, may be Romero’s last chance
to keep his spot in manager John Farrell’s rotation and avoid being placed on
the disabled list with a phantom injury. He is 1-1 with a 3.05 ERA and 16-to-6
K/BB in three career starts at Safeco Field (10:10 p.m. ET).

***

Ike Davis picked up two hat tricks this past weekend: one of homers on
Saturday, the other of strikeouts on Sunday. The Mets first baseman has
smacked six big flies in his last seven games, and he looks poised to enjoy a
big second half if he can find a way to reduce his strikeouts. Davis has never
faced tonight’s Giants starter Madison Bumgarner, but he is 5-for-16 with two
home runs in four career games at AT&T Park. Bumgarner, on the other hand, has
allowed only three homers in 66 2/3 innings at China Basin this season (10:15
p.m. ET).

PODCASTS

EFFECTIVELY WILD, THE DAILY BP PODCAST - EPISODE 8: SCREEN DOOR
http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=17796

BP PODCAST EPISODE 99: ARE YOU SIPPING ON SOMETHING ALREADY?
This week's episode is packed with tons of prospect talk, but our special
guest is really special, as Evald Johnson, a filmmaker who also happens to be
the son of former big leaguer and big league manager Tim Johnson is making a
baseball movie. One of the starts of that movie is underground rock legend
David Yow. They have a Kickstarter going, and you can invest in the film. How
totally cool would it be if our listeners helped a movie get made. The podcast
is free. If you've ever thought or said to us that you would pay for the show,
do it by clicking on that link and helping artists make art. And check out the
benefits on the right. It's not a charity, as you will get stuff in return,
from your name in the credits to downloads of the film to blu-rays to movie
artwork by Yow. Please help them, it would be totally awesome, and as always,
we hope you enjoy the show.
bbp.cx/a/17680

BP FANTASY PODCAST EPISODE 14: THE NEXT YOUKILIS
Jason and Paul discuss the fantasy impact of trades involving Hanley Ramirez
and Zack Greinke and what recently promoted rookie Starling Marte can bring to
your team. That and much more at the link below.
http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=17812

ANNOUNCEMENTS

BASEBALL PROSPECTUS 2012 APP NOW AVAILABLE
At long last, the Baseball Prospectus 2012 annual app is now available for the
iPhone, iPod Touch, and iPad. Follow your favorite MLB teams and players
throughout the season with Baseball Prospectus analysis that includes team
overviews, player assessments, detailed stats, and 2012 projections for over
2000 players. All of that and more for just $4.99 if you purchase it in the
next two weeks. For more information and to access the download page, click
the link below.
http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=16776

BROOKS BASEBALL NOW AT BP
The outstanding PITCHf/x work of Dan Brooks, Harry Pavlidis, and co. is now
available through BP. For more details on the integration of Brooks Baseball,
see the post by Joe Hamrahi linked below:
bbp.cx/a/17621

BALLPARK EVENT TICKETS NOW ON SALE
Join your favorite BP writers and industry insiders at our upcoming ballpark
events. For more information and to purchase tickets, click the links below.
August 11 at Minute Maid Park in Houston: bbp.cx/a/17647

SUBMIT A QUESTION TO THE RESEARCH MAILBAG
Got a burning baseball question you want answered? Submit it via email to
Bradley Ankrom (bankrom@baseballprospectus.com) and we'll do our best to find
the answer. Our research staff will select its favorite questions from the
batch and feature them in the mailbag the following week.

PLAYOFF ODDS AVAILABLE DAILY
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for the double wild card. Check it out here:
http://www.baseballprospectus.com/odds/

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