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Newsletter: Thursday, June 28, 2012


MEDIA

BP chat
Jay Jaffe - BP Chat moderated by Jay Jaffe. Click
http://www.baseballprospectus.com/chat/chat.php?chatId=939 to join or submit a
question.
06-29 1:00 PM EST

740 AM (Orlando)
Jason Collette - Jason joins The Shot Doctor and David Buffa for his weekly
segment talking baseball.
06-29 4:30 PM EST

NEW PREMIUM CONTENT

Top 10 Trade Targets
Moving On Up--To Contention

by R.J. Anderson and Derek Carty

Ten players who could land with a contender before this year's trade deadline.

http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=17512

On the Beat
Picking the All-Stars

by John Perrotto

John casts his ballot for this year's All-Stars, and a conversation with Jim
Leyland.

http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=17510

Future Shock
Promotions

by Kevin Goldstein

Hey, Kevin, when is so-and-so going to get called up? Huh? Huh?

http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=17499

The Platoon Advantage
The Eternal Shortstop

by Bill Parker

Do you appreciate what Omar Vizquel has done? That is to say, do you really,
really appreciate it?

http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=17501

Daily Hit List
Wednesday, June 27

by Matthew Kory

Rangers at the top, Hyrum Van Pooter at the bottom.

http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=17500

The Call-Up
Trevor Bauer

by Kevin Goldstein

The Diamondbacks called up Trevor Bauer and here's what to expect.

http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=17509

The Call-Up
Martin Perez

by Kevin Goldstein

The Rangers brought up their highly-prized lefty, and here's what to expect.

http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=17508

Future Shock Blog
Minor League Update: Games of June 26

by Kevin Goldstein

Notes on 39 prospects as Kevin Goldstein takes a trip through the day in the
minors.

http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=17504

NEW FANTASY CONTENT

Value Picks
Starting Pitchers for 6/28/12

by Paul Sporer

The much-anticipated debut of Trevor Bauer highlights this week's SP VP.

http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=17514

NEW BASIC CONTENT

Inside The Park
Why Can't We Just Leave Rizzo Alone?

by Bradford Doolittle

If Anthony Rizzo fails to fulfill expectations, an excess of media attention
will be partly to blame.

http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=17518

What the Contenders Need
AL West

by Jason Wojciechowski, Jeff Euston and Kevin Goldstein

What do the Angels and Rangers need heading into the deadline, and where might
they find it?

http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=17513

BP Unfiltered
Starlin Castro Will Probably Make the Hall of Fame

by Sam Miller

Probably don't worry about Starlin Castro.

http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=17507

BP Unfiltered
A Poem About Pitchability

by Jason Parks

Pitching poetry with the Professor.

http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=17506

BP Unfiltered
Good Advice About Baseball and Good Advice About Life

by Sam Miller

What you should do when life throws you a curveball.

http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=17503

Tater Trot Tracker
Trot Times for June 26

by Larry Granillo

The tater trots for June 26: Melk Man, Lopez and A-Rod tie it up, and Bourn's
quick trot.

http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=17502

WHAT YOU NEED TO KNOW: JUNE 28

THE MONDAY TAKEAWAY

For the four weeks spanning May 28 through June 22, it seemed that Marlins
closer Heath Bell had shed his early-season malaise. Bell made 10 consecutive
scoreless appearances, struck out 16 batters in 9 1/3 innings, and pared his
ERA down from 8.00 to 5.47. Suddenly, that three-year, $27 million contract he
signed in early December was not looking quite as calamitous for the Fish.

After last night’s extra-inning loss to the Cardinals, though, it’s back to
square one—not just for Bell, but also for the organization as a whole.

The first-year closer entered with the Marlins leading 6-2 in the top of the
ninth, and though the Redbirds had plated a run in each of the previous two
frames, the game still seemed safely in hand. In fact, Ozzie Guillen may
simply have wanted to get the 34-year-old Bell some work, considering that he
had pitched only once in the previous eight days. Bell immediately looked
rusty, issuing a leadoff walk to Rafael Furcal, and it was all downhill from
there.

Shane Robinson struck out, but Matt Holliday drove one into the opposite-field
gap for a double. Then, Carlos Beltran singled, Allen Craig hit a sacrifice
fly, and Yadier Molina delivered the final nail with a two-run shot that tied
the game at 6-6. Bell was not charged with the loss, but it was his meltdown
that enabled the visitors to capture the series opener, 8-7, in the 10th.

The loss dropped the Marlins to 34-39—just two games better than their 32-41
mark through 73 games in 2011—and left them alone in the NL East cellar as the
Phillies topped the Pirates, 8-3. Manager Edwin Rodriguez resigned after the
team’s 32-39 start a year ago, and, though Guillen is not on the hot seat,
last place is not what owner Jeffrey Loria and President of Baseball
Operations Larry Beinfest had in mind following their offseason spending
spree.

WHAT TO WATCH FOR ON TUESDAY

It’s BP intern Hudson Belinsky’s favorite day of the season, as (Daniel)
Hudson meets (Tim) Hudson in the series opener between the Diamondbacks and
the Braves at Turner Field. The former Hudson has befuddled just about
everyone with his three most recent outings, holding the powerful Rangers to
three runs in seven innings on June 14 but getting shelled by the A’s and
Mariners in the starts immediately before and after that win. The latter
Hudson is 6-0 with a 1.36 ERA in eight career starts against Arizona (7:10
p.m. ET).

***

When the Padres inked Cameron Maybin to a five-year, $25 million extension in
March, they thought they were locking up one of the most dynamic young players
in the game. Unfortunately, the 25-year-old has been anything but dynamic so
far in 2012, logging a .204/.284/.298 triple slash with 56 strikeouts in 245
at-bats. Maybin has not produced an extra-base hit since June 8, and he’ll try
to snap that skid against Astros starter Jordan Lyles—who has coughed up 12
XBH in 44 2/3 innings—tonight (8:05 p.m. ET).

***

Keeping the ball in the yard has been a problem for Gavin Floyd this season,
and the 15 home runs he has served up in 83 innings of work have bloated his
ERA to 5.20 despite a significant uptick in strikeouts. Floyd has struggled
against the Twins throughout his career, going 4-11 with a 6.29 ERA and
allowing 16 homers in 97 1/3 frames over 16 starts. The main culprits are
Denard Span (15-for-29) and Joe Mauer (17-for-39 with eight walks), who will
look to provide Liam Hendriks with the support he needs to earn his first
career win (8:10 p.m. ET).

***

Ryan Vogelsong has not failed to complete the sixth inning in any of his 13
starts this year, but his last outing with fewer than 18 outs came against the
Dodgers on Sept. 21, 2011, and he’ll face Don Mattingly’s squad for the first
time since then tonight. Los Angeles will counter with Clayton Kershaw, who
will try to keep San Francisco from climbing to within a game of the NL West
lead (10:15 p.m. ET).

PODCASTS

BP PODCAST EPISODE 97: CAN I HAVE A SMALL SAMPLE OF YOUR POOP?
Kevin and Jason discuss the feud between Joe Maddon and Davey Johnson, try to
explain the awesomeness of R.A. Dickey, and welcome A's Scouting Director Eric
Kubota to the show. This week's musical guest is Wild Cub.
http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=17454

BP FANTASY PODCAST EPISODE 9: TOUGH WORKING ENVIRONMENT
Jason and Paul rant on trade vetoes, talk about their strategies in dump
trading, handling innings caps, and spending FAAB and then interview our own
Kevin Goldstein on the draft and Drew Fairservice of Drunk Jays Fans on the
Toronto Blue Jays.
http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=17456

ANNOUNCEMENTS

BASEBALL PROSPECTUS 2012 APP NOW AVAILABLE
At long last, the Baseball Prospectus 2012 annual app is now available for the
iPhone, iPod Touch, and iPad. Follow your favorite MLB teams and players
throughout the season with Baseball Prospectus analysis that includes team
overviews, player assessments, detailed stats, and 2012 projections for over
2000 players. All of that and more for just $4.99 if you purchase it in the
next two weeks. For more information and to access the download page, click
the link below.
http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=16776

BROOKS BASEBALL NOW AT BP
The outstanding PITCHf/x work of Dan Brooks, Harry Pavlidis, and co. is now
available through BP. For more details on the integration of Brooks Baseball,
see the post by Joe Hamrahi linked below:
http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=16721

BALLPARK EVENT TICKETS NOW ON SALE
Join your favorite BP writers and industry insiders at our upcoming ballpark
events. For more information and to purchase tickets, click the links below.
July 8 (All-Star Weekend) at the Negro Leagues Baseball Museum in Kansas
City:
http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=17278

SUBMIT A QUESTION TO THE RESEARCH MAILBAG
Got a burning baseball question you want answered? Submit it via email to
Bradley Ankrom (bankrom@baseballprospectus.com) and we'll do our best to find
the answer. Our research staff will select its favorite questions from the
batch and feature them in the mailbag the following week.

PLAYOFF ODDS AVAILABLE DAILY
The season is underway, and our playoff odds report is now updated to account
for the double wild card. Check it out here:
http://www.baseballprospectus.com/odds/

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updates throughout the day.

FOLLOW BP CONTRIBUTORS ON TWITTER
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Cee Angi @ceeangi (http://www.twitter.com/ceeangi)
Bradley Ankrom @BradleyAnkrom (http://www.twitter.com/BradleyAnkrom)
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Tommy Bennett @tommy_bennett (http://www.twitter.com/tommy_bennett)
Jonathan Bernhardt @jonbernhardt (http://www.twitter.com/jonbernhardt)
Dan Brooks @brooksbaseball (http://www.twitter.com/brooksbaseball)
Craig Brown @RoyalsAuthority (http://www.twitter.com/RoyalsAuthority)
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