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Newsletter: Wednesday, June 27, 2012


MEDIA

WLQR 106.5 FM (Toledo, OH)
Jay Jaffe - Jay Jaffe talks baseball with Norm Wamer on "The Front Row,"
Wednesday at 3:15 pm CT/4:15 ET. Streaming via their website at
http://www.1065theticket.com as well
06-27 3:15 PM CST

KROD 600 AM (El Paso, TX)
Jay Jaffe - Jay Jaffe runs down the week in baseball with Steve Kaplowitz.
Streaming at http://krod.com as well.
06-27 4:20 PM MST

NEW PREMIUM CONTENT

What the Contenders Need
NL West

by Bradley Ankrom, Jeff Euston and Kevin Goldstein

What do the Dodgers, Giants, and Diamondbacks need heading into the deadline,
and where might they find it?

http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=17495

Punk Hits
The Goblins & Gauntlets Monster Manual, MLB Expansion Pack: Pitchers, Vol. 1

by Ian Miller

It is the culmination of decades of baseball culture and nerd culture racing
toward each other at high speed.

http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=17492

Pebble Hunting
The Other Thing About Petco

by Sam Miller

If you want to make Petco more friendly to hitters, it's not enough to move
the fences in.

http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=17491

Daily Hit List
Tuesday, June 26

by Matthew Kory

The Jamie Moyer revenge tour rolls on, adds new target for revenge.

http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=17487

Future Shock Blog
Minor League Update: Games of June 25

by Kevin Goldstein

Notes on the night in the minors and why it's time to do something, anything
with Dellin Betances.

http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=17490

NEW FANTASY CONTENT

Value Picks
Relievers for 6/27/12

by Dan Mennella

With Frank Francisco hitting the DL, Dan examines replacement Bobby Parnell in
this week's VP

http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=17497

Fantasy Beat
Henderson Alvarez's Nightmare Season

by Jason Collette

A look at how Henderson Alvarez went from fantasy sleeper to peripheral
disaster.

http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=17489

NEW BASIC CONTENT

The Lineup Card
10 Incidents of Cheating

by Baseball Prospectus

Who are some of baseball's best cheats in the non-chemically-enhanced
division?

http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=17443

Prospects Will Break Your Heart
A Flight of Fancy

by Jason Parks

Jason prepares for the BP event in Arlington with a bad flight and some good
thoughts.

http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=17493

BP Unfiltered
Today in Entirely Speculative Out Calls

by Ben Lindbergh

DeWayne Wise and the Yankees get a gift from umpire Mike DiMuro.

http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=17496

BP Unfiltered
Google and Anti-Umpire Search Suggestions

by Ben Lindbergh

Google kindly suggests that you search for insults about umpires.

http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=17494

BP Unfiltered
Analysis of the Kevin Youkilis Trade, Straight From the Top

by Sam Miller

Barack Obama Thanks Boston for Kevin Youkilis

http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=17488

What You Need to Know
Tuesday, June 26

by Daniel Rathman

For a while there, Heath Bell looked like he was righting the ship, but now?
Not so much.

http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=17347

WHAT YOU NEED TO KNOW: JUNE 27

THE MONDAY TAKEAWAY

For the four weeks spanning May 28 through June 22, it seemed that Marlins
closer Heath Bell had shed his early-season malaise. Bell made 10 consecutive
scoreless appearances, struck out 16 batters in 9 1/3 innings, and pared his
ERA down from 8.00 to 5.47. Suddenly, that three-year, $27 million contract he
signed in early December was not looking quite as calamitous for the Fish.

After last night’s extra-inning loss to the Cardinals, though, it’s back to
square one—not just for Bell, but also for the organization as a whole.

The first-year closer entered with the Marlins leading 6-2 in the top of the
ninth, and though the Redbirds had plated a run in each of the previous two
frames, the game still seemed safely in hand. In fact, Ozzie Guillen may
simply have wanted to get the 34-year-old Bell some work, considering that he
had pitched only once in the previous eight days. Bell immediately looked
rusty, issuing a leadoff walk to Rafael Furcal, and it was all downhill from
there.

Shane Robinson struck out, but Matt Holliday drove one into the opposite-field
gap for a double. Then, Carlos Beltran singled, Allen Craig hit a sacrifice
fly, and Yadier Molina delivered the final nail with a two-run shot that tied
the game at 6-6. Bell was not charged with the loss, but it was his meltdown
that enabled the visitors to capture the series opener, 8-7, in the 10th.

The loss dropped the Marlins to 34-39—just two games better than their 32-41
mark through 73 games in 2011—and left them alone in the NL East cellar as the
Phillies topped the Pirates, 8-3. Manager Edwin Rodriguez resigned after the
team’s 32-39 start a year ago, and, though Guillen is not on the hot seat,
last place is not what owner Jeffrey Loria and President of Baseball
Operations Larry Beinfest had in mind following their offseason spending
spree.

WHAT TO WATCH FOR ON TUESDAY

It’s BP intern Hudson Belinsky’s favorite day of the season, as (Daniel)
Hudson meets (Tim) Hudson in the series opener between the Diamondbacks and
the Braves at Turner Field. The former Hudson has befuddled just about
everyone with his three most recent outings, holding the powerful Rangers to
three runs in seven innings on June 14 but getting shelled by the A’s and
Mariners in the starts immediately before and after that win. The latter
Hudson is 6-0 with a 1.36 ERA in eight career starts against Arizona (7:10
p.m. ET).

***

When the Padres inked Cameron Maybin to a five-year, $25 million extension in
March, they thought they were locking up one of the most dynamic young players
in the game. Unfortunately, the 25-year-old has been anything but dynamic so
far in 2012, logging a .204/.284/.298 triple slash with 56 strikeouts in 245
at-bats. Maybin has not produced an extra-base hit since June 8, and he’ll try
to snap that skid against Astros starter Jordan Lyles—who has coughed up 12
XBH in 44 2/3 innings—tonight (8:05 p.m. ET).

***

Keeping the ball in the yard has been a problem for Gavin Floyd this season,
and the 15 home runs he has served up in 83 innings of work have bloated his
ERA to 5.20 despite a significant uptick in strikeouts. Floyd has struggled
against the Twins throughout his career, going 4-11 with a 6.29 ERA and
allowing 16 homers in 97 1/3 frames over 16 starts. The main culprits are
Denard Span (15-for-29) and Joe Mauer (17-for-39 with eight walks), who will
look to provide Liam Hendriks with the support he needs to earn his first
career win (8:10 p.m. ET).

***

Ryan Vogelsong has not failed to complete the sixth inning in any of his 13
starts this year, but his last outing with fewer than 18 outs came against the
Dodgers on Sept. 21, 2011, and he’ll face Don Mattingly’s squad for the first
time since then tonight. Los Angeles will counter with Clayton Kershaw, who
will try to keep San Francisco from climbing to within a game of the NL West
lead (10:15 p.m. ET).

PODCASTS

BP PODCAST EPISODE 97: CAN I HAVE A SMALL SAMPLE OF YOUR POOP?
Kevin and Jason discuss the feud between Joe Maddon and Davey Johnson, try to
explain the awesomeness of R.A. Dickey, and welcome A's Scouting Director Eric
Kubota to the show. This week's musical guest is Wild Cub.
http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=17454

BP FANTASY PODCAST EPISODE 9: TOUGH WORKING ENVIRONMENT
Jason and Paul rant on trade vetoes, talk about their strategies in dump
trading, handling innings caps, and spending FAAB and then interview our own
Kevin Goldstein on the draft and Drew Fairservice of Drunk Jays Fans on the
Toronto Blue Jays.
http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=17456

ANNOUNCEMENTS

BASEBALL PROSPECTUS 2012 APP NOW AVAILABLE
At long last, the Baseball Prospectus 2012 annual app is now available for the
iPhone, iPod Touch, and iPad. Follow your favorite MLB teams and players
throughout the season with Baseball Prospectus analysis that includes team
overviews, player assessments, detailed stats, and 2012 projections for over
2000 players. All of that and more for just $4.99 if you purchase it in the
next two weeks. For more information and to access the download page, click
the link below.
http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=16776

BROOKS BASEBALL NOW AT BP
The outstanding PITCHf/x work of Dan Brooks, Harry Pavlidis, and co. is now
available through BP. For more details on the integration of Brooks Baseball,
see the post by Joe Hamrahi linked below:
http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=16721

BALLPARK EVENT TICKETS NOW ON SALE
Join your favorite BP writers and industry insiders at our upcoming ballpark
events. For more information and to purchase tickets, click the links below.
July 8 (All-Star Weekend) at the Negro Leagues Baseball Museum in Kansas
City:
http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=17278

SUBMIT A QUESTION TO THE RESEARCH MAILBAG
Got a burning baseball question you want answered? Submit it via email to
Bradley Ankrom (bankrom@baseballprospectus.com) and we'll do our best to find
the answer. Our research staff will select its favorite questions from the
batch and feature them in the mailbag the following week.

PLAYOFF ODDS AVAILABLE DAILY
The season is underway, and our playoff odds report is now updated to account
for the double wild card. Check it out here:
http://www.baseballprospectus.com/odds/

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at:
http://www.facebook.com/baseballprospectus

BASEBALL PROSPECTUS TWITTER FEED
Stay up to date on the latest articles, events, chats, authors and stats by
following @BaseballPro ( http://www.twitter.com/BaseballPro ) on Twitter for
updates throughout the day.

FOLLOW BP CONTRIBUTORS ON TWITTER
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Cee Angi @ceeangi (http://www.twitter.com/ceeangi)
Bradley Ankrom @BradleyAnkrom (http://www.twitter.com/BradleyAnkrom)
Stephani Bee @StephBee118 (http://www.twitter.com/StephBee118)
Tommy Bennett @tommy_bennett (http://www.twitter.com/tommy_bennett)
Jonathan Bernhardt @jonbernhardt (http://www.twitter.com/jonbernhardt)
Dan Brooks @brooksbaseball (http://www.twitter.com/brooksbaseball)
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