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Ahead in the Count column archives.

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March 24, 2010

Premium Article Ahead in the Count: Predicting BABIP, Part 2

by Matt Swartz

Who ranks among the best and worst in this seemingly unpredictable yet key metric?

March 23, 2010

Premium Article Ahead in the Count: Predicting BABIP, Part 1

by Matt Swartz

BABIP isn't as luck-driven as many suggest, not after you drill down into the numbers.

March 17, 2010

Premium Article Ahead in the Count: Why SIERA Doesn't Throw BABIP Out with the Bath Water

by Matt Swartz

With SIERA on our stat menu, here's an explanation of why it predicts pitcher performance so well.

March 15, 2010

Premium Article Ahead in the Count: The No Turnover Standings

by Matt Swartz

What would happen if players had to stay with the teams who originally drafted or signed them as amateurs?

March 14, 2010

Premium Article Ahead in the Count: First and Second Plate Appearances

by Matt Swartz

A look at performance variations in plate appearances over time.

February 25, 2010

Ahead in the Count: DIPS, BABIP and Common Sense

by Matt Swartz

Whether they induce ground balls or fly balls, pitchers avoid the sweet spot of the bat at the same rate.

February 22, 2010

Premium Article Ahead in the Count: Evaluating Multi-Year Deals

by Matt Swartz

A surprising revelation that players often do better in the second year of two-year contracts than the first.

February 4, 2010

Premium Article Ahead in the Count: Revising Player Contract Valuation, Part 3

by Matt Swartz

Evaluating single high-profile signings against more scatter-shot solutions to team needs.

January 20, 2010

Premium Article Ahead in the Count: Revising Player Contract Valuation, Part 2

by Matt Swartz

Pricing out the premium on star players, and establishing minimums and expectations for player value.

January 18, 2010

Premium Article Ahead in the Count: Revising Player Contract Valuation, Part 1

by Matt Swartz

An evaluation of where the valuation of contracts is at, and where it should go.

January 11, 2010

Premium Article Ahead in the Count: Part 2 of Service-time Contracts and Wins

by Matt Swartz

Expanding the scope of last week's study to include 2007 and 2008.

January 4, 2010

Premium Article Ahead in the Count: Service-Time Contracts and Wins, Part 1

by Matt Swartz

A look into how teams are assembled with talent from different sources at different prices.

December 29, 2009

Premium Article Ahead in the Count: For the Long-Term Investors

by Matt Swartz

A study of which positions give the least value in the second and third years of multi-year contracts signed by free agent.

December 21, 2009

Premium Article Ahead in the Count: When Bad Teams Land Good Free Agents

by Matt Swartz

Uncovering when it is beneficial for a bad team to sign someone on the free-agent market.

December 17, 2009

Premium Article Ahead in the Count: Anatomy of a Blockbuster

by Matt Swartz

It may seem as though everyone involved in the Aces-for-Prospects swaps came out ahead, but it simply isn't so.

December 8, 2009

Premium Article Ahead in the Count: Shifting in the Third-Base Market

by Matt Swartz

Does expanding the pool of candidates at a position create relative bargains?

November 23, 2009

Premium Article Ahead in the Count: Zack Greinke and FIP

by Matt Swartz

How much can a pitcher actually control their FIP or ERA?

November 17, 2009

Premium Article Ahead in the Count: How To Make Up a Good Trade Rumor

by Matt Swartz

Seven simple rules to make your Hot Stove trade rumors more realistic.

November 9, 2009

Premium Article Ahead in the Count: Cole Being Cole?

by Matt Swartz

Continuing an analysis of Cole Hamels' 2008 and 2009 seasons.

October 28, 2009

Premium Article Ahead in the Count: The Mashers and the Mashed

by Matt Swartz

An examination of how much of an effect DHs and having pitchers hit have in the World Series.

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