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May 1, 2003

Premium Article Adjusting for Context: Pythagenport Standings Through May 1st

by Clay Davenport

The standings present multiple realities. At the top, of course, there is the genuine reality, the bottom line, the real deal, terra firma: the actual wins and losses of each team. To a statistician, the actual results are just a little boring: they don't necessarily reflect the likelihoods that this particular result would happen. The Indians, for instance, are 7-20, as of this morning. Ho-hum. So the second reality, or the first alternate reality, is found by looking at how many games the team should have won, given how many runs they scored and allowed. There are plenty of ways to make that estimate--Rob Neyer, for one, regularly tracks the standings using Bill James' "Pythagorean" theorem (in fact, Rob recently wrote an article on pretty much exactly what I'm doing here--and believe it or not, I didn't read that article until after I'd finished drafting this. It must have been in the air). We'll be just a little different.

April 21, 2003

Premium Article WWII Difficulty: How Much Does Wartime Affect Quality of Play?

by Clay Davenport

Sixty years ago, America was at war. That one was very different, and one of those differences was the way baseball reacted. This time around, no one from the major leagues was going to take any part in the fighting, and certainly won't now that it's winding down. It is unlikely that anyone from the minor leagues will take any part (if there are any minor league players who are in the Guard and have been called up, I haven't been able to find any mention of it.) There are a number of ways to look at how much difference the military service of ballplayers made on the quality of the league at a given time. One of the simpler ways is to compare the aggregate statistics of players coming into the major leagues to the aggregate of the players who were going out.

October 28, 2002

Prospectus Feature: Player Cards

by Clay Davenport

The Player Cards are back! First, let me emphasize that these player cards are an ongoing project. I fully expect to be able to make future revisions to the cards themselves and the glossary without having to take everything down again. Some of these changes--like a full set of translated statistics for every player, to go with their actual statistics -are already in the works. Others -like extensions to the glossary- will follow the questions from readers.

May 17, 2002

Premium Article Prospectus Feature: Park Factors: Through Six Weeks

by Clay Davenport

The middle of May is a good time to take a look at the park factors around the league. Granted, its waaayyy too early to draw firm conclusions about these; most teams still haven't finished home-and-homes with their opponents to date, and the overall sample size is still small enough that chance has a lot to do with the results. Fact is, though, it's a fun thing to look at.

Park Factors: Through Six Weeks

by Clay Davenport

February 21, 2002

Japanese Baseball, Pt. 2: Players

by Clay Davenport

January 29, 2002

Japanese Baseball: How Good Is It?

by Clay Davenport

October 9, 2001

Doctoring The Numbers: More on Barry Bonds

by Clay Davenport

September 7, 2001

The Daily Prospectus: Julio Franco

by Clay Davenport

March 29, 2001

The International League vs. The Pacific Coast League: Making the Case

by Clay Davenport

March 12, 2001

The Daily Prospectus: Being Bad Birds

by Joe Sheehan and Clay Davenport

February 23, 2000

Two Point Four Five Million Dollars: Just how bad was Brian Hunter?

by Clay Davenport

January 11, 2000

Cooperstown’s Newest Denizens: Carlton Fisk and Tony Perez

by Clay Davenport

June 30, 1999

Revisiting the Pythagorean Theorem: Putting Bill James' Pythagorean Theorem to the test

by Clay Davenport and Keith Woolner

June 29, 1998

Prospect Focus: Gabe Alvarez and Ruben Rivera

by Dave Pease and Clay Davenport

June 19, 1998

Prospect Focus: Joel Bennett, Ryan Minor, Willis Otanez, and Dave Stieb

by Clay Davenport

June 10, 1998

BP Polling: Clay Davenport's Ballot:

by Clay Davenport

June 5, 1998

Prospect Focus: Adam Riggs and Octavio Dotel

by Gary Huckabay and Clay Davenport

March 12, 1998

Shortstops and DFTs:

by Clay Davenport

March 3, 1998

Orthopedia: This year's risks to go under the knife

by Clay Davenport


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