Team Health Reports: St. Louis Cardinals
by Will Carroll
Projected lineup
Rotation
Closer
There's an element of luck in injury. A team can suddenly get healthy or a team
can have a run of bad luck. Bad luck can pop up in the form of an unexpected or
even odd injury, but bad luck almost by definition doesn't have a pattern. Teams
have years where they sneak through almost untouched by injury, followed by
years in which everything that can possibly break, strain, or sprain does.
Then there's the curious case of the 2002 Cardinals.
At one point last year, the Cardinals had every starter but one on the DL, and
this was before the Darryl Kile tragedy. A collision that sent Scott Rolen to
the shelf for the post-season perhaps doomed a team that could have challenged
for a World Series title. No team in recent memory has been as defined by
volume of injuries. Moreover, no team with a comparable history came close to
the success the Cards had. There are some that will credit this to Tony LaRussa
or blame the medical team. But in the end, the Cardinals in many ways were
simply outliers, racking up more injuries than you'd ever expect while enjoying
more subsequent success than you'd ever imagine.
The upside with teams that suffer through a spate of injuries? They tend to be
healthier the next year. Teams that bring the injuries on themselves by
overusing pitchers or filling their rosters with fragile players are the
exception. For the most part, the Cardinals weren't one of those teams. They
should expect to be healthier in 2003.
Still, looking through their roster, there are a few players that may have
actually stayed healthier than expected last year. Jim Edmonds is a
Larry Walker
type, a hard-nosed, dive-for-the-ball-and-tear-something player. Staff ace Matt
Morris shouldered a heavy load. Yet neither player experienced a serious injury.
Scott Rolen made it through the season healthy, despite his history of back
trouble. Woody Williams broke down, couldn't come back and was treated strangely
at best by the organization. Even J.D. Drew played acceptably through a
misdiagnosed knee problem. Drew still gets a red flag though - he's a perennial
breakout and breakdown candidate, all at once.
Assuming Morris is no worse for wear, the Cards must still hope for healthy
returns by Williams and Jason Simontacchi, two pitchers who could spend more
time on the DL than on the mound. They both get red flags. Add a post-surgical
Jason Isringhausen and this is precisely the type of pitching staff that Dave
Duncan does not succeed with. There's no retread here for him to work his magic
on and there's an obvious disconnect between the type of players that the front
office is providing and the type of player the field staff needs to succeed.
Looking through the lineup, the only player that doesn't worry me due to
history, usage, or style of play is Albert Pujols. The cynic would say that
makes him most likely to run into a wall or something equally random. There's
the old and fragile (Martinez), the young and fragile (Drew) and someone like
Mike Matheny, who contributes so little to the lineup that he may as well be
injured. Even he now has a shoulder injury to rehab.
A winning Cardinals team will need to have luck on its side, with all the breaks
going their way. With the Astros likely improved and potentially game foes in
the Reds and Cubs, they'll need every bit of that good fortune to get it done.
Will Carroll is an author of Baseball Prospectus. You can contact him by
clicking here.
2B Fernando Vina
CF Jim Edmonds
LF Albert Pujols
3B Scott Rolen
RF J.D. Drew
1B Tino Martinez
SS Edgar Renteria
C Mike Matheny
Matt Morris
Woody Williams
Jason Simontacchi
Brett Tomko
Dustin Hermanson