Team Health Reports: Minnesota Twins
by Will Carroll
Projected lineup
Rotation
Closer
The Minnesota Twins won in 2002 in part due to their ability to overcome major
injuries to their pitching staff. Terry Ryan and the player development staff
have built a prospect-creation machine and have it hidden somewhere in the
Metrodome, allowing the Twins amazing flexibility and depth. While much weaker
in pitching than with the bats, the Twins were able to slog through the time
lost by Radke, Milton, and Mays. Having someone like
Johan Santana
available in the pen makes an injury more of an annoyance that something that
shatters a season, yet few general managers seem to grasp the importance of
organizational depth and the effort needed to build it. At nearly every
position, the Twins have enough depth to deal with even a major injury without
skipping a beat, except perhaps at shortstop.
The Twins have only two red flag players, Christian Guzman and Joe Mays. Guzman
was clearly playing through injuries last year, despite his denials and the
Twins medical staff's. Several people pointed to plays he did not make in the
playoffs and the severe decline he suffered at the plate, and think that Guzman
may have been dealing with a back injury. We'll likely never know, but Guzman
did play like someone with a disc problem, failing to turn on the ball and
having difficulty bending for some grounders. Since the problem was not
addressed in the off-season, we must assume it could recur and that Guzman may
be heading for a 2003 season similar to 2002. While the Twins have enough bats
to live with such an occurrence, Guzman's glove is much more important to a team
like the Twins, which plays half its games on turf.
Mays battled through elbow problems most of the season, but managed to avoid the
reconstructive surgery that had been suggested to him. Mays' strikeout rate,
while never high, plummeted both before and after his DL stint, suggesting that
success may be hard for him to find in the upcoming season. Do not be surprised
to see Mays suffer from a recurrence of elbow problems or, more concerning,
shoulder problems if the elbow alters his mechanics.
UTK is dropping yellow flags on Jacque Jones, Brad Radke, and Kyle Lohse. Jones
displayed some signs of drop-off near the end of last season, which we believe
is a sign of things to come. A player with his skill set often ends up losing
something of himself to the plastic grass - the biggest example of this being
Andre Dawson.
Granted, Jones is no Dawson, but even a small reduction in his speed and
quickness would dampen his ability to play the game effectively.
Meanwhile, Radke dealt with groin injuries that did not seem to heal properly,
and some of the blame for his second DL stint must be laid at the feet of the
medical staff. Any time a player comes back and re-injures himself immediately,
it's a sign the medical staff either did not do an adequate job of understanding
the injury or didn't properly communicate its concerns, assuming it made the
right diagnosis. Groin injuries have a tendency to become chronic and Radke
should be watched closely for any sign of recurrence.
Lohse is a young pitcher in a new role, which is always a worrisome sign. Ron
Gardenhire appeared to have a firm grasp of how to deal with his pitching staff,
but UTK worries that Lohse may be forced to throw more than anyone would like
with an injury to Mays or Radke. Don't worry about Lohse much more than you
would about any young pitcher. That said, you have to worry about most young
pitchers.
The Twins are adequately equipped to deal with injuries to players at nearly
every position due to depth. Their medical staff is considered adequate, though
it's regressed since the days when long-time athletic trainer Dick Martin
usually had the team near the top of DL-prevention. The worst-case scenario
would be back surgery for Guzman - forcing the team to rely on
Denny Hocking
as more than a utility player - plus Tommy John surgery for Mays, and continuing
groin problems for Radke.
Will Carroll is an author of Baseball Prospectus. You can contact him by
clicking here.
LF Jacque Jones
SS Cristian Guzman
3B Corey Koskie
CF Torii Hunter
DH Matt LeCroy/Bobby Kielty
RF Mike Cuddyer
1B Doug Mientkiewicz
C A.J. Pierzynski
2B Luis Rivas
Brad Radke
Eric Milton
Joe Mays
Rick Reed
Kyle Lohse