World Series Prospectus: Anaheim Angels vs. San Francisco Giants
by Chris Kahrl and Keith Scherer
This series is almost remarkable in its absence of "hooks." Sure,
you've got the "Pastaman's Progeny" angle, as two putative Sons of
Lasorda duke it out from the dugouts. As regional incest goes, the Bay Area
versus the Angeleno megalopolis doesn't really rise to Boston-New York, and
certainly ranks as much more on the level than the low-water mark of the 2000
World Series. Journalists of bents both narcissistic and envious bleat about the
injustice of Barry Bonds being in the World Series, before wishfully
whining that although he might have hit in the first two playoff series, this
time he'll blow it. But none of that really gets us, does it? This series is
more basic. It isn't about where the teams are from, or the long-suffering
sufferations of fans suddenly happily poised at the penultimate moment of
fandom.
The core story is that we've got two very evenly matched teams who arrived at
this point after a wee bit of dragon slaying. How their duel plays out should
make for a great series whether it goes four games or seven.
SS-R David Eckstein (.293/.363/.388/.274)
San Francisco Giants
CF-L Kenny Lofton (.260/.350/.414/.276)*
Deity-of-choice help the Giants as far as tabbing a DH if they don't finally
add Damon Minor to their postseason roster. At this point, whoever else the
Giants use in the DH role could bat 9th and not offer an awful lot more than
Russ Ortiz at the plate.
This Angels' offense has been the buzz of the postseason, but this is not your
Earl Weaver offense. They drew 462 walks all season, good for 26th place in the
majors, and they hit 152 home runs, finishing ahead of only four American League
teams. Nevertheless, Anaheim finished fourth in the majors in runs scored. They
score because they put the hard-hit balls in play. They led the majors in hits
and batting average, and they haven't wasted their chances. Only one team hit
into fewer double plays, Pittsburgh, and the Pirates had substantially fewer
baserunners than the Angels. The Giants have the advantage of knowing that Barry
Bonds will spend more than half his time on base, but behind him their 5th, 6th,
and 7th slots in the lineup combined to ground into 55 double plays this year.
By way of contrast, slots 4 through 7 in the Angels' lineup hit into only 47.
The Angels get on base about as often as the Giants' hitters, but they don't
take themselves out of innings.
More importantly, the Angels' lineup is built around young hitters in their
prime who happen to be peaking at the right time. They have scored 6.7 runs per
game, by far the best of all playoff teams. Two matchups in this series look
especially favorable for them. Jason Schmidt and Livan Hernandez were far better
against right-handed hitters than lefties this season, so even though the Angels
don't have a pronounced platoon advantage against righties, a lineup with four
lefties and a switch-hitter could pose problems for Giants starters in three or
four games. Also, the Angels stole 177 bases this year, 5th in the majors, and
Schmidt and Hernandez had a lot of trouble controlling the running game. The
Angels lineup generally doesn't run up pitch counts, play station-to-station and
wait for three-run homers. It hits, drives the ball hard, runs, and even bunts,
always keeping pressure on the opposing pitcher. And while the Giants don't have
a credible bat to fill in as designated hitter in the games at Anaheim, the
Angels have the Fullmer/Wooten platoon, giving them a huge advantage in those
games. Fullmer is the stronger half of the partnership-he had a season EqA of
.304 compared to Wooten's .278--and he'll be getting nearly all of the DH at
bats since Giants lefty starter Kirk Rueter will be limited to one start.
Although the Angels lost the first game in each of their two playoff series, the
match-up is right for the Angels to win the opener here. The problem will be
what to do in San Francisco in Games Three, Four and Five: bench Spiezio and put
Fullmer's stone hands at first? Spot start Wooten against Rueter? A lot will
depend on what happens in the first couple of games, but Scioscia would
undoubtedly prefer to not make a move if he can avoid it.
Balanced against all of that halo'd goodness, you've got Barry Bonds and his
talented sidekicks. Jeff Kent is, of course, more than the
first-among-less-than-equals, and he is the guy who gets pitched to because he
hits in front of The Great One. But if there's a critical factor to the entire
Series, it's what Barry Bonds does in the first through sixth innings of every
game. If Bonds' teammates get on base and create opportunities where Barry gets
pitched to, or if the Angels open up the Series by going at him, there should be
some damage done. But if the Giants don't score early, then Bonds goes from
game-breaker to instant baserunner in the inevitable late-inning machinations.
In tight games, like in Game Four of the NLCS, that can still be a very good
thing. Unfortunately for the Giants, it means relying on Benito Santiago to keep
dialing up delightfully Fiskian moments on demand. Keep in mind, the Angels' pen
is even better than the Cardinals' was, and Scioscia is less likely to spin his
wheels than Tony LaRussa.
The sturdily mediocre foursome in the bottom half of the lineup is just that -
adequate. But given Baker's management style, they'll be playing every night,
which will give them plenty of opportunities to scuffle and shine without a lot
of micromanagement. It's just as well, since beyond taking their hacks, they're
not a group noted for power, speed, or an ability to reach base. Baker's gotten
a little bunt-conscious with Rich Aurilia, which is unfortunate since he's
having a good October. But generally speaking the Giants take their hacks, which
makes absolutely perfect sense when you've got Bonds on base nearly sixty
percent of the time.
C-R Jose Molina (.271/.312/.314/.217)
San Francisco Giants
C-R Yorvit Torrealba (.279/.355/.397/.273)
Like the guys in the lineup, the Angels role players don't shoulder their bats.
Palmeiro's the one who will take a walk, but everyone except The Other Molina
can hit. There's a lot of flexibility here. The Angels have a good defensive
outfield, so Scioscia can burn Ochoa as a pinch-hitter if the matchup calls for
it without worrying about wasting his glove. He can pull Bengie Molina early, in
a middle-inning run-scoring situation, and replace him with whatever the Book
calls for--Ochoa against lefties or Palmeiro against righties. Gil is available
to pop lefties (.310/.344/.838) either off the bench or to spell Kennedy against
Rueter. Wooten picks up the light-duty end of the DH platoon, and since
Figgins's bat isn't needed he can be the designated pinch runner. The games are
likely to be decided before the seventh inning, but if they go beyond that the
Angels have a significant tactical advantage.
The Giants, by contrast, have little to offer, especially if you can overlook
that the only bench player with a hit in the postseason is Shawon Dunston. It's
just as well, since Dusty's willing to ride the eight regulars, although you can
ponder the cause and effect here: is Dusty taking a page from Joe Torre, and
going with the guys who got him there, or is he taking a page from Joe Torre,
and trying to ignore his weak bench? Tom Goodwin is a pinch-runner miscast as
the top pinch-hitting option. Tsuyoshi Shinjo is nothing more than a defensive
replacement, although he may get a start against Jarrod Washburn in Anaheim.
Pedro Feliz should be politely referred to as a washout. Ramon Martinez is the
most dangerous hitter on the bench, especially if Minor isn't activated, but the
absence of anyone other than Dunston to play the infield in case of an injury
seems to keep Martinez marooned on the bench.
LHP Jarrod Washburn (3.3, 206, 3.15)
San Francisco Giants
RHP Jason Schmidt (0.6, 185 1/3, 3.45)
The Giants had the better regular season ERA, but once we account for park
factors the Angels have the better staff. The Giants had an ERA of 3.54 but they
played half their games in an extreme pitchers' park with a factor of 920.
Anaheim has a park factor of 1016 and the Angels' ERA was just a little behind
the Giants at 3.69. The Angels starters had a Support-Neutral Won-Loss record of
63-50, with the Giants barely over .500 at 58-56.
In the Angels' first two series, Washburn was the only pitcher Scioscia allowed
to throw more than six innings in a start. With his excellent bullpen, six
innings is the most he needs. When Appier starts, if he can give them five solid
innings he'll have done enough. Throughout his career he has been better against
righties, but in 2002 he had an OPS that was 100 points better against those who
hit from Barry Bonds's side of the plate. Ortiz has acute gopheritis but he's
not especially vulnerable to lefties. He succeeds in spite of it because he
doesn't put a lot of runners on base. He'll only have to face Bonds twice per
game, so Bonds could tee off on Ortiz and he'll survive it, so long as he
doesn't give up cheap homers to guys he should be dominating.
Washburn is the star of the group and maybe the most likely Angel to profit from
national exposure. Scioscia trusts him to go longer in games than his other
starters and that makes sense because he's their best. He had 22 quality starts
and when he was trusted to take those quality starts further, he blew only two
of them. He makes the bullpen deadlier too: when he goes seven innings, he saves
the bullpen innings that can be spent early in the Appier or Ortiz starts.
Lackey might get one start. He would be a fair match for Rueter, and his platoon
split is so backwards (.504 OPS against lefties, .884 against righties) that it
would be interesting to see how he'd fare against Bonds and a lineup otherwise
dominated by right-handed hitting.
The only problem with this rotation is that it doesn't induce a lot of
groundballs. The threat isn't that the Giants will manage to loft some cheap
homers; it's that this rotation might not be able to take advantage of the
Giants' propensity to hit into double plays. The upside is that Angel starters
have yet to get a chance to pitch in an environment like Pac Bell, where their
flyball tendencies won't be so threatening.
The Giants rotation, isn't quite as strong, but beyond not having anyone of
Washburn's quality, they're pretty evenly matched. Leading off with Jason
Schmidt may not seem like an ideal solution, but he was a horse down the
stretch. However, his career-long performance issues against lefties remain an
problem against an Angels lineup featuring DH Brad Fullmer in Game One. Russ Ortiz
is similarly reliable, and although he stumbled against the Cardinals, he had a
good pair of starts against the Braves. Unfortunately, there's a bit too much of
a Mike Torrez-like capacity to make things interesting with a few walks, and the
Angels are the sort of lineup that can hurt Ortiz for his wildness. Livan
Hernandez has given the Giants two quality starts in two outings, but that's to
Dusty's credit. Hernandez is better off in Pac Bell, and a pair of home starts
are a nice way to help out the Giants' most hittable starter.
The question Baker needs to resolve is whether he should start Hernandez in Game
Three, and take his chances as far a potential Game Seven in Anaheim, or if he
can overlook Kirk Rueter's struggles in two out of three postseason starts. The
Angels do a generally good job of mauling lefties, so this isn't an easy choice,
and a lot will depend on the outcome of the first couple of games. If the Giants
are up 2-0, they can afford to risk Hernandez in Game 7 to take their best shot
at going up 3-0. If the Giants are down 2-0, they'll have bigger problems than
what to do with this particular choice.
RHP Troy Percival (13.1, 56 1/3, 1.92)
San Francisco Giants
RHP Robb Nen (15.0, 73 2/3, 2.20)
The Angels' Rodriguez has begun to make a name for himself, but there are plenty
of serious baseball fans who are only just now hearing about Donnelly and Weber.
Being on the late edition of Baseball Tonight and showing up in day-old
box scores will dim a player's star power, especially if that player is a
reliever. The Angels' bullpen was second best in the majors this season in terms
of Adjusted Runs Prevented, trailing only Atlanta. Since Scioscia is likely to
turn the game over to his bullpen early in most games, this is a chance for this
no-name crew to gain some fame. If the series comes down to the Angels' bullpen
against the Giants' bench, the Angels will win it.
In the past, we have written that there is no such thing as a relief-pitching
prospect. Rodriguez's performance has been so strong that we might have to make
an exception for him. At the reported age of 20 he has come seemingly out of
nowhere (even before this season he was a legitimate but mercurial prospect) to
throw ten innings in the postseason, allowing only four hits and four walks
while striking out 15. Donnelly has been getting roughed up in October, but his
season was quietly excellent. With Schoeneweis, Shields, and Weber filling in
around Rodriguez and Donnelly, the Angels have plenty to get the ball to
Percival in the ninth so that there's no need to push the starters if they're
going sour on any given night. Nen did a great job closing the door on the
Cardinals, but Percival is his equal. Much as we think we're smarter about it,
Scioscia seems intent on saving Percival for the true closer situations. In four
save opportunities this postseason he has four saves. If the Angels have a lead
in the ninth and the game gets to him, it's as good as over.
The Giants pen is hardly a weak spot, however. They're strong enough to have
finished fifth in the majors in Adjusted Runs Prevented, and beyond Dusty's
bizarre infatuation with using Aaron Fultz at all in any situation, there isn't
another weak pitcher in the pen. Tim Worrell and Jay Witasick are both sturdily
useful setup men; although Worrell had a couple of ugly games against the
Braves, he more than made up for it with a fine series against the Cardinals.
Scott Eyre has been a late-season steal, and Felix Rodriguez righted himself
after a miserable first half. All in all, that's a group that doesn't give up
many hits, and isn't especially wild. Chad Zerbe makes for an interesting weapon
in Anaheim in case one of the right-handed starters comes out early. If Baker
brings Zerbe in early for some long relief work, will Scioscia leave Fullmer in,
or pull him and pinch-hit? If there's anything troubling, it's that Robb Nen
hasn't been overwhelmingly dominant down the stretch. He's always had runs of
the hiccups now and again, but it isn't enough to be something the Giants should
worry about. He's not as good as Percival, but 90% of the time, the distinction
is meaningless.
The Giants also feature a generally stout defense, although Kenny Lofton's rag
arm will become an issue against the Angels, since they have the hitters to put
the ball into the outfield, and the legs to take advantage of him. Santiago is
merely adequate behind the plate, both in terms of stopping pitches and
intimidating the running game. The Angels shouldn't run wild on him, but we're
not talking Pudge Rodriguez or Mike Matheny here.
CF-L Darin Erstad (.283/.313/.389/.256)
RF-R Tim Salmon (.286/.380/.503/.310)
LF-L Garret Anderson (.306/.332/.539/.297)
3B-R Troy Glaus (.250/.352/.453/.285)
DH-L Brad Fullmer (.289/.357/.531/.304)
1B-B Scott Spiezio (.285/.371/.436/.288)
C-R Bengie Molina (.245/.274/.322/.212)
2B-L Adam Kennedy (.312/.345/.449/.284)
SS-R Rich Aurilia (.257/.305/.413/.256)
2B-R Jeff Kent (.313/.368/.565/.319)
LF-L Barry Bonds (.370/.582/.799/.457)
C-R Benito Santiago (.278/.315/.450/.271)
1B-L J.T. Snow (.246/.344/.360/.263)
RF-R Reggie Sanders (.250/.324/.455/.279)
3B-R David Bell (.261/.333/.429/.273)
* combined season totals
DH-R Shawn Wooten (.292/.331/.442/.278)
INF-R Benji Gil (.285/.307/.431/.260)
OF-R Alex Ochoa (.261/.361/.404/.272)*
OF-L Orlando Palmeiro (.300/.368/.354/.269)
PR-B Chone Figgins (.305/.336/.409 and 39 SB at Triple-A with a
translated major league EqA of .243)
* combined season totals
1B-L Damon Minor (.237/.333/.445/.279)--you have to hope he's activated
INF-R Ramon Martinez (.271/.335/.414/.270)
1B/3B-R Pedro Feliz (.253/.281/.336/.221)
UT-0 Shawon Dunston (.231/.250/.286/.181)
OF-L Tom Goodwin (.260/.321/.338/.252)
OF-R Tsuyoshi Shinjo (.238/.294/.370/.244)
RHP Kevin Appier (1.4, 188 1/3, 3.92)
RHP Ramon Ortiz (1.9, 217 1/3, 3.77)
RHP John Lackey (0.2, 108 1/3, 3.66)
RHP Russ Ortiz (1.1, 214 1/3, 3.61)
RHP Livan Hernandez (-1.2, 216, 4.38)
LHP Kirk Rueter (0.9, 203 2/3, 3.23)
RHP Ben Weber (18.9, 78, 2.54)
RHP Scot Shields (14.4, 49, 2.20)
RHP Brendan Donnelly (13.5, 49 2/3, 2.17)
RHP Francisco Rodriguez (3.3, 5 2/3, 0.00)
LHP Scott Schoeneweis (1.4, 118, 4.88)
RHP Jay Witasick (16.1, 68 1/3, 2.37)
RHP Tim Worrell (9.3, 72, 2.25)
LHP Scott Eyre (7.0, 74 2/3, 4.46)*
LHP Chad Zerbe (6.3, 56 1/3, 3.04)
RHP Felix Rodriguez (-0.7, 69, 4.17)
LHP Aaron Fultz (-8.0, 41 1/3, 4.79)
* combined season totals