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Soyons Expositifs!
by Jonah Keri
Those Expos sure are on fire, eh? Winners of nine of their last ten, Les Expos have regained sole possession of second place in
the NL East, and rest just 5.5 games behind the Atlanta Braves.
Of course, many of you may not have noticed how well the Expos are playing. Who can blame you? The owners' representative
supposedly signed the 'Spos' death warrant long ago, and the 2002 season is supposed to be a march towards extinction for the
franchise that introduced Canada to Major League Baseball.
Whatever highlights show you're watching won't tell you much either. They're too busy cracking hilarious Expo attendance jokes.
He passed out from the shock of the big crowd. And, what game? Ha!
But we Expos fans have feelings too. If you cut us, do we not bleed Youppi! orange?
You don't think we remember the pain of Blue Monday in 1981? Twenty-one years later, a lot of people like listening to Rick
Monday during Dodgers broadcasts. All I see is that bum smacking a Steve Rogers meatball over the center-field fence, quashing
the Expos' shot at a World Series. Today, his voice grates like
Fran Drescher
on a Pixie Stix bender.
What about 1994? The Expos surged to the best record in baseball that summer. Fans packed the Big O, screaming like lunatics for
Larry Walker and Moises Alou, Ken Hill and John Wetteland. Ads urged Expos fans to secure their
playoff tickets now, before they disappeared. That August, the owners decided fighting for a labor-cost cap was worth pissing
away the rest of the season, the playoffs and the World Series.
Seven years of awful owner after awful owner badmouthing the city, the team, the ballpark and the fans later, MLB took over the
team, planning on pulling the plug after the 2002 season. The league may have meant well
when it tapped Omar Minaya (mmmph!
umpf!) as a lame-duck GM for the lame-duck franchise, but
other than picking up Troy O'Leary for nothing,
Minaya's done little to... (ummf!)
Sorry, Omar's just a little squirmy. You see, he's probably a good guy and all, but what does he know from the heart-wrenching
lunacy that is Expo fandom? Yeah, OK, his former employer, the Mets, once employed
Junior Noboa too. And sure, Minaya's trying to make his
bones and earn a more stable GM job somewhere. But all he's done is rearrange deck chairs on le Titanic.
So with the help of some Expo die-hards from FanHome.com, I've taken the Expos' offices by force. Oh, I'm not going to do
anything violent here. I'm just going to make the moves that will take this team to the playoffs for the second time in club
history.
It won't be easy. MLB likely won't allow any huge added salary obligations. The Expos' farm system has only a few trade chits to
offer. The big-league roster does have its share of holes. But I'm up to the task.
I wanted to share my plan with you, but first I had to get through BP's heavily-guarded lair. We weren't able to subdue
gatekeeper Joe Sheehan, so instead we tossed him a 20-sided die and some tattered, old Don Mattingly Strat-O-Matic cards.
That'll hold him for a month or two.
Onward:
Despite some high draft picks spent on pitching in recent years, the Rays remain a little short in quality arms at the upper
levels. The Expos' biggest area of depth? B-level pitching prospects who can fill the back of rotations. One such prospect,
Zach Day,
was recently called up.
He becomes a Devil Ray. So does Justin Wayne, a prospect who's been compared to
Mike Mussina (mostly because he's big and from Stanford, but never mind the details). We'll throw in some cash, plus
Jorge Nunez, a Dodgers castoff playing decently in Triple-A who can be as good as any of the shortstops the Rays have
started over the last few years.
Day, Wayne, Nunez and $500,000 for Wilson and Cox. Two projectable pitching prospects, major-league ready or close to it and
years from arbitration; a starting shortstop candidate and cash for a new, competent starting first basemen (11th among regular
major-league first sackers in VORP at 6.2) and a
bonafide #4 starter. Both Cox and Wilson could be valuable in 2003 if the franchise sticks around beyond this year, even if their
salaries go up along the way. Stevens' $4 million a year contract expires after this season, freeing up that cash to cover the
raises due Cox and Wilson and then some.
Assuming the deal goes through at the season's halfway point, that's about $1.3 million in salary and cash to bear.
To dump Lloyd, we'll accept no more than a PTBNL for him; no useful players, no token prospects, just a faceless figure for a
bonafide veteran reliever. Assuming another deal midway through the year, we shed $1.5 million in salary, minus the three
months' worth of minimum salary we'll pay to whatever mop-up man we slot to fill Lloyd's non-essential role. After two trades,
we've acquired a legitimate starting first baseman and a solid fourth starter and given up nothing of value to this year's
team.
Current fifth starter Masato Yoshii tossed a shaky but effective five shutout innings to beat the Royals in his last
outing. If he keeps throwing up zeros, leave him alone. If he gets yanked early in future starts, have Tucker take his spot
before the bullpen starts to wear down cleaning up Yoshii's messes. Wherever you can the most leverage out of Tucker, do it. For
those hung up on having a set closer, remember that Scott Stewart has done a great job in that role and can manage fine
with Tucker moving.
Is Phillips ready for the Show? Should he jump into the starting SS spot? Spell Cabrera at short and the effective but fragile
Fernando Tatis at third base while bolstering the bench? Or should Cabrera or Phillips be dealt?
It's tough to gauge the two players' trade value. Phillips is widely considered one of the top five prospects in the minors, a
five-tool talent with improving plate discipline and a high ceiling. Cabrera is a Gold Glove winner with a lot more experience,
some flashy RBI totals from last season and a heavier price tag.
If you're playing with an eye toward a future beyond this year, you deal Cabrera, looking for younger talent with more upside.
But if you're going for broke, you call former owner Jeffrey Loria and rekindle the trade talk that had Phillips going to
Florida with Carl Pavano earlier in the year for Brad Penny. Only this time, make it Phillips, Pavano and
promising pitching prospect Luke Lockwood for Cliff Floyd.
Yes, the deal will cost the team $2.5 million down the stretch. But the pressure on MLB to push the Expos toward contention will
snowball as teams head to the wire. Even the most cynical estimates would still have a few thousand more fans coming out as the
team piled up wins, easily making up for Floyd's added salary.
While the Yankees
wait for Juan Rivera to rehab
and re-emerge as trade bait, the Expos can land Floyd, thanks to the best
combination of trade bait and go-for-broke attitude of any team around. If Floyd flees after three months for free agent riches,
so be it.
New lineup:
Rotation: Javier Vazquez, Tony Armas Jr., Tomokazu Ohka, Paul Wilson, Masato Yoshii/T.J. Tucker
Bullpen: Scott Stewart, Matt Herges, Joey Eischen, Dan Smith, Yoshii/Tucker, Triple-A call-up Matt Blank
Bench: Troy O'Leary, Joe Vitiello, Mike Mordecai, Jose Macias, Brian Schneider, Andres Galarraga
A Serie Mondiale for Nos Amours. We're daring to dream.
Jonah Keri is an author of Baseball Prospectus. You can contact him by
clicking here.
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