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Arizona's back loaded contract run to the World Series sunk an entire ownership group. Oh, and please let me know where I can get a 7% return over the next 8 years.
Thanks for stopping by but be careful with the strawman argument. I don't care about hearing UZR quoted in broadcasts when I still see articles on ESPN.com about how the run is the most important statistic and Joe Morgan complain about that book Billy Beane wrote. We all want the same thing. We're still just a long way off.
Revenue sharing has to be collectively bargained and I don't think the union has any incentive to force owners to spend the money on non-union members.
Front offices must be getting a lot smarter. I can remember a time when a "30 HR guy" like Branyan would have got a multiyear deal easy, not scraping around for a minorleague deal.
Matt Holliday did pretty well for himself this year. Same for Mark Teixiera last year.
Haven't been following this series very much, have you?
I think its been proven that lineup construction doesn't affect run scoring that much over the balance of a season.
How much would it cost to get Joe Sheehan back?
Won't someone please think of the children?
Is OPS with RISP a repeatable skill? I thought the "RBI man" myth was debunked a while ago.
$9m for one year of Beltre is a great contract. They sure can't run Zombie Mike Lowell out there every day. His contract in retrospect wasn't very smart although I think at the time the risk was acceptable.
So you're advocating sinking 7 years and $122m into Matt Holliday because defense is harder to measure? They made a run at Texeira last year but that kind of player wasn't out there this time.
Also, what you call a collapse I call regression to the mean. Be careful with your snapshots; The Redsox were the better team over 162.
Not when you're in the last at-bat and a single hurts you just as much as a double.
The Redsox still play 81 games outside of Fenway.
The Redsox tried pretty hard to sign Teixeira. His wife picked the Yankees. You can't really fault them for taking low cost, short term gambles on 'undervalued' veterans.
Yeah, because the only thing you ever hear out of Lions fans is how great it was to make the playoffs 4 times since 1994. Its parity forced by the unbalanced scheduling anyway.
"But we have [on our broadcast team] one of the catchers that caught Bob Gibson."
So I guess that makes him an authority on baseball statistics? This whole article is really depressing.
Excellent article, Joe. Its a good example of exactly why I keep paying for that subscription. Keep up the good work.
I recall PECOTA really loving guys that are young for the level of play as well. Not like getting there early isn't a huge accomplishment, but sometimes players are as good as they'll ever get.
Possibly word count restrictions? Its a topic for a follow-up article I would like to read though.
Then why did you read it? The title wasn't too hard to figure out.
Is it really possible that he's never pitched through discomfort before? I find that hard to believe.
There's no analysis in this piece. It's just a regurgitation of obviousness. This competition has really exposed Brittany. She may very well be a good writer, but stick to quote-mining and game-recapping. Analysis really isn't your thing .. especially not for an audience like BPs.
Brittany's analysis may have been terrible but at least she offered some. Jeff's article was just a list of contracts.
Thanks for the direction, Ken. I'm now the happy first-time owner of Strat computer version 14 (awaiting delivery). Let the obsession begin.
I'm not a Strat guy but this article (among others) has peaked my interest. What's the proper avenue for the non-initiated to get started? There seem to be almost too many options to sort through.
Okay, where's the second half of the article? Did I miss a link somewhere? Oh, wait...
As a long time BP subscriber, I'd much rather have solid arguments with supportive data than some kind of unquantifiable "readability".
Very cool new take on fantasy valuation but doesn't PFM do the same thing better?
I'm not sure how Brittany could write a whole article on GB/FB ratio and not know how to incorporate that into a BABIP discussion. Crawford has a high BABIP because he puts the ball on the ground and runs like the wind. Do you really think his average is lucky and Cabrera's isn't? I feel like I'm taking crazy pills.
Do you mean the "baseball analysis" area? That's a pretty serious weakness.
If Votto is near 100%, why did he sit out the weekend series?
Randomly picking three players doesn't make a very good statistical argument. Not only that, but comparing less than two months worth of 2009 with full season data is a bit sketchy.
I was really drawn in by the opening, but the conclusion was muddled and slightly disappointing. Lost my vote by the end.
You can be fairly certain when a teams number 3 hitter is going to bat. In late innings your best reliever should face their best hitter, period.
I'm a little disappointed the article doesn't get into any of the methodology. I'd hate to think its dumbed down for the ESPN crowd.