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Great tagline or blurb to the article! Edmure Tully, indeed.
Nats have good depth at "70+ names" in their minors.
Is it starting to look like Fedde's the rotation guy for the near/immediate future and not Ross? Ross seems to do significantly better 1-2 times through a lineup (vs. 3+) and keeps visiting the DL.
Thank you for this article!
I think I may have mentioned this in a comment section years ago. Specifically regarding LOOGYs vs. left handed hitters. Maybe in an article about splits getting worse as hitters get old. Dunno.
Also, there's plenty of opportunities throughout the course of a season (minor league or otherwise) to put these extra practice pitchers in to mop up games.
Love the Balfour bit. When he first came up, I kept seeing his name in fantasy free agent lists and thinking, "Why is a hockey goalie listed?"
So is Mussina the guy that voters will draw the line at, more or less for SP compilers?
<span class="playerdef"><a href="http://www.baseballprospectus.com/card/card.php?id=45939">Sam Fuld</a></span>. The Todd Gack of baseball.
This list, particularly Robles, shows why the Nats should move Turner back to the infield. A 2 year placeholder rental to help with the CF situation would make sense.
Also, there's a serious lack of left handed starters. :(
<span class="playerdef"><a href="http://www.baseballprospectus.com/card/card.php?id=639">Oliver Perez</a></span> over <span class="playerdef"><a href="http://www.baseballprospectus.com/card/card.php?id=31544">Sean Burnett</a></span>. That's probably the only selection I'd question on the Nats' side given the circumstances.
Giving up a stranglehold on having players named Max Sch____, but they needed another lefty. So losing <span class="playerdef"><a href="http://www.baseballprospectus.com/card/card.php?id=106875">Max Schrock</a></span> is a high price indeed.
Was <span class="playerdef"><a href="http://www.baseballprospectus.com/card/card.php?id=17248">Darryl Kile</a></span> an 80?
Not just any folk singer, but one in her 70s!
So why is Giolito in Hagerstown? Potomac is closer to DC, and Harrisburg isn't that far away compared to Hagerstown... at least relative to Syracuse.
"There’s just nothing that can be done with that his sider"
Of course they should re-sign Adrian Beltre. The guy is only... checks baseball-reference... Holy crap, he's finally old!
Rays line. Well done.
Would "... competing for playing time with recent callup Ty Cobb" work better?
Top relievers are getting snatched up left and right. Are the Nats really going to come back empty handed and trade away Paps and Storen?
I'm surprised there's been no rumblings on the <span class="playerdef"><a href="http://www.baseballprospectus.com/card/card.php?id=49617">Andrew Miller</a></span> end? He's among the best closers and his contract is one year shorter than when he signed it.
I feel like the Nats could conceivably scoop up a lot of former Orioles. And they wouldn't be crazy for doing it. Wieters, Chen, Parra, O'Day.
Can we get the Mariners to hire <span class="playerdef"><a href="http://www.baseballprospectus.com/card/card.php?id=14159">Scott Service</a></span> as pitching coach?
Even as good as they were with him during his limited time this year, there's just no room for him. A similar lefthanded hitter not as fragile and old is what they could use. If they can find room. There's certainly enough money freed up.
I agree. Even though I'm a Nats fan, I don't wish ill will on an exciting young pitcher like Syndergaard. I just think there's a good chance he'll run into big arm problems next season.
Haha. Eventually, I realized how unreliable that stat is when <span class="playerdef"><a href="http://www.baseballprospectus.com/player_search.php?search_name=Kevin+Brown">Kevin Brown</a></span>'s was a 94 when he did something similar to Scherzer's first no-hitter. Which was 1 <span class="statdef"><a href="http://www.baseballprospectus.com/glossary/index.php?search=HBP" onmouseover="doTooltip(event, jpfl_getStat('HBP'))" onmouseout="hideTip()">HBP</span></a>.
I'm going on 15 minutes of googling and I still can't find a good list of best regular season game scores. Wikipedia comes close with a list of ones 100 or higher, but I'm hoping for a bigger list. :(
Would calling the book "Honeyball" be bad?
Are two Scooby Doo mask jokes too many for one Hitlist article? Dee Gordon -> Delino Deshields (Sr.)
I can't seem to find an old BP article from years back that ran the numbers and concluded something like: only 1% of teams that are more than 5 games behind the team they're chasing, after August 31st, have actually caught them.
I'm hazy on the actual stat and details, but I'm thinking the article was before the 2 wildcard teams system.
I'm convinced the Nats have a better chance of catching the Mets with my Jayson Werth garden gnome in the lineup instead of actual Jayson Werth.
Today, I was a 3 hour and a 4 hour meeting shy of a cycle.
"The Nationals didn’t promote Turner for him to watch games on the bench, but manager <span class="playerdef"><a href="http://www.baseballprospectus.com/player_search.php?search_name=Matt+Williams">Matt Williams</a></span> isn’t the most out-of-the-box thinker in a major league dugout, to put it politely."
Sad thing has been that he has done just that. Watch games on the bench.
The sample size isn't huge, and I didn't go and look at many other pitchers, but something stands out with Fister when looking at innings splits...
Almost across the board, in innings 1-3 vs. innings 4-6, his numbers are about the same. <span class="statdef"><a href="http://www.baseballprospectus.com/glossary/index.php?search=OBP" onmouseover="doTooltip(event, jpfl_getStat('OBP'))" onmouseout="hideTip()">OBP</span></a>, <span class="statdef"><a href="http://www.baseballprospectus.com/glossary/index.php?search=SLG" onmouseover="doTooltip(event, jpfl_getStat('SLG'))" onmouseout="hideTip()">SLG</span></a>, BA, <span class="statdef"><a href="http://www.baseballprospectus.com/glossary/index.php?search=BABIP" onmouseover="doTooltip(event, jpfl_getStat('BABIP'))" onmouseout="hideTip()">BABIP</span></a>, <span class="statdef"><a href="http://www.baseballprospectus.com/glossary/index.php?search=BB" onmouseover="doTooltip(event, jpfl_getStat('BB'))" onmouseout="hideTip()">BB</span></a>. It's <span class="statdef"><a href="http://www.baseballprospectus.com/glossary/index.php?search=ERA" onmouseover="doTooltip(event, jpfl_getStat('ERA'))" onmouseout="hideTip()">ERA</span></a> is 3.89 vs. 5.31 and K/BB is 3.38 vs. 2.71.
Maybe there's something to that decline in his secondary offering, considering second to third time through the lineup, he's not missing bats when in theory mixing in the secondary pitches.
I doubt the Nats would think outside the box on this one and have Ross shadow Fister. Which on paper would keep Fister pitching only during his most effective part of games as well as limit Ross's innings.
I get that this addresses the back end of the bullpen, but come playoff time, the long reliever slots should improve regardless of this trade... Fister and Ross will probably be better than Treinen and Roark.
I agree. Just because some GMs can be "Rizzo-ed" doesn't mean Rizzo should fleece them. This is quite a good move from a stats perspective, but there may have been better moves out there, like getting a couple of good setup guys instead.
I'm not sure how this will do in the long run for team chemistry, which is an important stat as statheads know. :p And everyone I've talked to, Nats fans or otherwise, said they dislike or hate Papelbon.
Adrian Beltre's bust in Cooperstown should have a caption under it that reads, "At least he's still (insert current age) years old" to commemorate what every fantasy baseball owner was thinking the first 15 years of his career.
What happened with Giolito? Relief night?
Imagine my surprise when I went to wikipedia to see if Brian Dozier is a 2 sport athlete... and he looks nothing like Brian Jordan or DJ Dozier.
I agree. I think Difo should be the SS of the two and Turner the 2B. This is how things should have initially turned out with Espinosa (SS) and Desmond (2B), IMHO.
Two Simpsons references? Love it!
Also, LaTroy Hawkins may be fantastic at holding everyone's attention when explaning about 90s pop music, but managers think he doesn't have the nerves to finish/close his thesis.
I feel like I saw that or something like that on Sportscenter or Baseball Tonight back then.
Last year during Father's Day weekend in Baltimore, I tracked down a foul ball that popped up behind the plate by <span class="playerdef"><a href="http://www.baseballprospectus.com/player_search.php?search_name=Jose+Reyes">Jose Reyes</a></span>. It initially bounced pretty hard off of my friend who was sitting next to me. I ended up giving him the ball.
I've never been that close and probably never get that close again.
Shouldn't that then be David Rong?
If Difo and Turner both prove to be starting major leagues by mid 2016, which is the better defensive shortstop in the long run?
Even before this year, I kept thinking the Nats chose the wrong guy to play SS between Espinoza and Desmond way back when (if Espy was actually able to hit better).
Re: Giants comment.
Is Pokey Reese worth an honorable mention?
Nobody appreciates the rare Ecks vs. Sever joke more than me.
I don't know why, but this reminds me of something in football...
Why don't offenses put a fast linebacker or a strong safety behind everyone in a victory formation? This seems like a better strategy than hoping your running back has the ability to tackle the defender who might pick up a loose fumble during from the snap.
I feel like Homer Bailey can somehow be worked into the Reds' caption.
LaTroy will only get to hold the candles and Hillshire Farms gift baskets for an inning, before someone with more of a "closer's mentality" comes in to replace him.
Welcome back. One of those columns that can often be read long after its release.
L/R Balance in the lineup and relievers is still a worry for me.
I was going to say Dontrelle Willis, but then noticed that he had 2 other seasons even better than his rookie year. Ah, my memory is not what it used to be.
Too bad Corey Hart didn't get an 80s-inspired comp to Joe Jackson.
Hessman's like the Jacquin Phoenix character in "Signs."
Everything's coming up (Heath) Bell!
Never again, A's. I can't keep rooting for you as my sentimental, non-home-team team and then get my heart semi-broken.
Nats will have to win the World Series in order to place 4th ahead of the Mariners, apparently.
Remember those debates you had with your baseball friends about who'll end up having more all-star appearances: Andy Marte or Andy LaRoche?
*hangs head in shame*
Travis has a brother, Chase d'Arnaud who's had a little ML time.
Inspired writeup. Re: Rockies... Reminds me of the year the Braves had a rotation of Maddux, Millwood, Moss, Marquis, and (argh) Glavine.
Love the Nats-related scouting updates!
Has Ryu ever faced anyone named Ken? I'd be satisfied if there's footage of him tipping his cap to Bob Saget in the stands.
How would Giolito compare to a young up and coming AJ Burnett? Rating the pitches, development path, etc.
Burnett's career hasn't been as great as I once thought, but it hasn't been terrible. I see this as Giolito's floor if he stays healthy enough to be a major leaguer.
Unless David Price is willing to be a LOOGY, I'm not sure the Nats really need him.
What's the old adage? "Don't worry, Adrian Beltre's still only... Holy crap! He's 35 years old now?!?"
That curve is Darryl Kile-ish!
LaTimes making a case that this was the most dominant pitching performance ever. Nomo's and Kevin Brown's come to my mind as ones that also stand above other no-hitters (or even perfect games).
Typo on the Detroit line. "how" instead of "wow"
Gio's not mid-rotation. Even his A's days showed that.
The innings weren't my issue with Strasburg. I defended it with anyone who argued otherwise last year. My beef was, he pitched from day 1 instead of say, Mid-May. Or should have gotten shut down because of a hang nail for a month in July. It may not have won that final game against the Cards, but they may have already won the series before getting to that game with Stras on the playoff roster while still short of his innings limit.
Remember the days when Berkman helped out in the SB category of your fantasy teams? Good times.
Do the Nats have anything to give for Wright if they are also looking for a bat?
Congratulations, Kevin. No slight to the others here at BP, but yours were some of the work that definitely kept me coming back all these years.
Being named "Chase" isn't a good name for a hitter either.
Maybe Derek Lowe needs another pep talk from Pete Schourek. Last time, Schourek called him up and said, "I just bid a lot of money to get you onto my fantasy league team. You better pitch well this year!" Lowe went from a 5.42 ERA and looking like he was done to a 3.61 ERA and having a second wind to his career.
I like that Twins line. It sounds like Norm MacDonald wrote it.
I would guess that the grip is part of that equation. Like a tighter grip does a little bit to slow down the pitch than a loosey "hold it like an egg" grip.
I love this. Any quick words on these two during their peaks, since I was always fascinated by their deliveries:
Kevin Brown, Rob Dibble
Things look to have changed for the better since mid-September. Wang looks like a good #3 if he comes back. And Milone could be in the running for #5.
Maybe Morrison will get 100 walks if he's hitting in front of the pitcher.
Anecdotal... The sports gear stores in Montgomery County Maryland, I've noticed sell at least as many Nats clothing if not more than Orioles (but then I've only been paying attention since Strasburg-mania started). In DC (where I work) and Northern Virginia (where my family is from), it's no contest, Nats gear way outnumber Orioles gear.
I don't know about the "demand side", but the "supply side" seems to tell me that the reach of the Orioles is shrinking in this area.
That group of Yankee minor leaguers in the early 90s were tearing it up prior to reaching the majors. Adkins, Eiland, Habyan, the list went on and on.
I'm against another wildcard slot, but for all playoff series being best of 7. It just seems silly for something like the Reds to have a great season, end up rewarding their fans with 1(!!!) home game in the playoffs.
That's former Cy Young Runner-up, Pete Schourek. :)
...Well, I'm not counting the guys who retired after Brown: Maddux, Glavine, Moose, Clemens, etc.
I agree on Kevin Brown's "close but no cigar"-ness, so question for anyone (Jay?) who has access to query such a thing... Top pitcher winning percentages among non-HoFers with more than 200 wins. Brown's in the top 5 isn't he? And probably with a considerably better career JAWS than the others. Am I right?
Compare Ozzie Smith's final 3 gold glove years to Larkin's defensive numbers those years. Smith won those on reputation. So it should be Larkin with 6 gold gloves, really.
"...and with some many..."
Perrotto's last paragraph. That should be "...and with so many..."
I know, teams value "veteran presence" and "loyalty", but Arroyo and Harang have served their purpose. Arroyo will be needed to bring in some marginal level of talent in return, or at least payroll relief.
"You’re not going to have the complete games, the innings pitched, the strikeouts and..."
Wait, strikeouts are up. You might not see Ryan-like career strikeout totals, but the median should be higher for guys who make it to 12 or so years in the majors. Right?
I love watching "Big Donkey" here in DC, but if he doesn't get to stay, I hope he goes to an AL hitter's park.
Is it me or does that first table need to be changed a little. Say, make italics the indicator for Hall of Fame. Because the "keyword matching" scheme of this site will bold all the names the first time they appear, which it did.
With Chapman, Bailey, and Volquez looking to probably move into the rotation next year, the Reds aren't going away.
Maybe it's me (both IE 8 and FF 3.5) but the definition of TAv might either need to be shortened or the tooltip box widened. I know, I can just jump to the definition page, but I enjoy rolling my mouse cursor over stats I forget about.
I just watched the video on Youtube and that part sounds like he's going for a French thing, "Tell Le Cobb", so as to include the Blue Jays and Expos fans into enjoyment of the song. Lyric sites everywhere seem to all say, "Tell Ty Cobb".
Then again, it doesn't even sound like he says, "Put me in coach". It sounds more like, "Put me in cold". No warmups necessary. :o
Baseball-Reference's HoF Monitor: Buehrle is currently in the Webb/Mulder/Millwood/Freddy Garcia area of the rankings. Make of that what you will. Maybe when it's all said and done, he'll reach David Wells level, or even Kenny Rogers, but I just don't think of him as among the best of his era. Well above average, yes.
I like the decision that this isn't a BP subscriber-only article. It's the type of piece I like sharing the link of to my friends.
The translator(s) for a newbie Latin American could pretty much be the 6 or 7 other Latin Americans on the team. Asian newbies don't have this luxury as they're usually the one Asian guy on their respective team. And if not, the other Asian guy might not even speak the same language.
Wow, Luke Hochevar? Do you think his salary would be a little high by then to be kept around and as a middle reliever?
"He's the best left-handed pitching prospect I've seen this year," said one scout...
Aroldis Chapman. Either he's not considered a prospect or this scout hasn't seen him.
Chipper's #6 comp on Baseball-Reference is Jim Rice. I guess that's a valid observation, Will. 5 of his top 10 comps are hall of famers, with 2 of them, Bagwell and Vlad, likely in(?) so I think Chipper will get in.
My guess about ambulances is that there are 8 games for football while they'd have to be sitting around for 81 games for baseball.
Javier Vazquez, Jake Peavy, and Edwin Jackson. This trio of guys whom I was "lucky" enough to have on my fantasy team the first couple of months.
With Vaquez at least, I still see a consistent K/BB ratio and lower MPH on his fastball (throughout the season) that fits with his current total numbers. It just happens that those numbers were produced by extreme results per start.
How was the crowd reacting as a whole? Over here for Strasburg's second home start, everyone was standing the entire game! It was like going to a concert where the crowd is all under 30 years old and the band is pumping out hit after hit while in their prime.
That's telling that he says he reverts to 4 seamers when his movement is tough to control... and that he doesn't count on 'hope'. Opposite approach: I remember a while back when Scott Erickson was 'on', he said he didn't know where the ball was going. It had so much movement that he just aimed for the middle of the plate and watch it nip a corner.
Speaking of comebacks (some more): Wily Mo Pena's back as well on the same day as Rocco Baldelli.
What about pitcher pinch runners? So a Trevor Cahill, or hell, even a CC Sabathia couldn't pinch run for David Ortiz?
Is "Losingball" the case of a long string of guys coming up with Kotsay-itis? Where you may be able to generate a high OBP in the minors, but if you don't have power in the majors, you'll get pounded with strikes. And before you know it, you're looking at 0-2.
Good Luck, Mark Prior. I'm pulling for ya.
Now, we're in the era of "I don't want to participate in the Home Run Derby for some reason or another having nothing to do with injury."
I think The Pterodactyl may have shot up a few "owned" percentage points in fantasy leagues after this.
Nice interview, David.
"...as good a curveball to come into the major leagues since Bert Blyleven..."
Whoa whoa. I'm a Nats fan, but Darryl Kile's curveball was so sick that it dropped like a hammer even in Colorado. Strasburg's is unreal, but it's no Kile curveball.
This is awesome analysis.
With this knowledge in hand, I'm now ready to go face Strasburg. :p
KG, What round are we looking at as far as Bryan Harper goes?
Very nice interview. Definitely makes me feel better about Kazmir's future than just looking at the recent numbers.
What are Jermaine Dye and Elijah Dukes up to these days? Surely they can't be any worse than Milton Bradley. A 1-year contract?
I was wondering the same thing as ostrowj1. What's to stop any team, like the Reds, from "cheating the system" and activate Volquez now to start the suspension clock?
Having played 22 games at 2B last year, McGehee probably qualifies there in a lot of leagues as well. Making him more valuable.
Was there an article on pre-qualified candidates that I may have missed? I'm thinking in particular of Mike Mussina, Curt Schilling, and Kevin Brown. With the results of Cone and Gooden, I kind of have my doubts about these three.
Nope. I did too.
I don't know about data, but I'd say it has something to do with "Look for the best in a person." Top two pitches being plus in terms of stuff and command, great velocity if not extended more than a couple of innings. I think you hit it on the head with the "play up in the pen" remark.
Is this the kind of stuff Kevin's hinting at?
The whole "we already have a great catching prospect" thing reminds me of the "Where are we going to play Magic Johnson?" thing when Magic was drafted. Or did I remember that wrong?
Is Boof unsalvageable as a starter? He seems to be the only other "starter type" that would have plus stuff if he rights his ship.
Man, I remember during the Bonds vs. Ruth talk of the early 2000s when I first started going to baseball-reference just to compare them. Who did I see atop the OPS rankings of all-time (if I remember correctly)? Todd Helton. Right there with Bonds, Ruth, Ted Williams, etc. Obviously, park factors and offensive era applied, but it's a shame injuries prevented Helton's HoF case from being at least interesting.
Yep. Getting Craig Counsell to ground out isn't going to be the same as pitching to contact against Pujols. Missing bats is neither overrated nor underrated. But it can't be ignored as an approach.
...and the substance was found to be: Nasonex.
I'm just smiling that Christina called Nick Johnson, "Nick the Stick." He just doesn't get called that enough around DC, and people look at me like they don't know who I'm talking about when I refer to him as that. Well, I guess there's good reason since he rarely made a healthy appearance in the lineup for people to get to know him.
"Micah Owings has likely beat him out for the final rotation slot, but like Buchholz he may not be biding his time in Triple-A for long."
That should be Bailey instead of Buchholz.
Shawn Hill: \"It doesn\'t get much redder than this.\"
That\'s saying a lot when this same page has the name \"Nick Johnson\" on it.