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Ezra Wise
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Baseball Prospectus http://bbp.cx/i/86146
Ezra Wise
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True, although the Nats are in the heart of a competitive window. If the club determines Turner is the best option, they'll likely roll with him regardless of service time considerations.

 
Ezra Wise
(86146)
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You're right. Drew isn't really an obstacle for Turner. There's nothing about his recent performance that suggests he's deserving of a starting role.

 
Ezra Wise
(86146)
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I do. If not right out of Spring Training, the job will be his shortly thereafter.

 
Ezra Wise
(86146)
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Me too. It's a true Role 8 comment.

 
Ezra Wise
(86146)
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Actually, Greene only uses organic, fair-trade makeup handcrafted by laborers making $70/hr.

 
Ezra Wise
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All four of those guys were kicked around as candidates for the interesting section but none were ever really in the mix for the top 10. After #8, things get pretty murky in my opinion as there's a lot of interchangeability among numbers 9-20 in the system.

 
Ezra Wise
(86146)
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Russell conclusively proved that Greene's smile alone causes out-of-zone whiff rate for opposing batters to rise by roughly five percent.

 
Ezra Wise
(86146)
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Plus posture; double-plus face; highly emotive; broad repertoire depth; chance at the big screen; nice fallback option as TV actor.

 
Ezra Wise
(86146)
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Industry sources rave about his runway presence.

 
Ezra Wise
(86146)
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Good question. The separators are: * There's a chance (albeit not a great one) that VG isn't a 1B-only guy. * In the aggregate, VG's run-field-throw > RT's run-field-throw.

 
Ezra Wise
(86146)
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Correct re: reaching the upper minors and seeing better arms. The jump from High-A to Double-A is of course much bigger than Low-A to High-A. Further, no one is expecting Reyes to contribute at the ML level in 2016, so resting him and/or placing him on the DL if needed would be much more palatable than if he were on the verge of cracking the ML roster.

 
Ezra Wise
(86146)
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Good points. We'll be sure to provide more contextual info in future debates.

 
Ezra Wise
(86146)
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That said, I acknowledge that a "Perceived Post-Sabermetric Era," based on a much narrower definition of the field, is entirely possible.

 
Ezra Wise
(86146)
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From the SABR website: As originally defined by Bill James in 1980, Sabermetrics is "the search for objective knowledge about baseball". If we define Sabermetrics as broadly as James does, it becomes awfully difficult to imagine a true "Post-Sabermetric" future coming to fruition.

 
Ezra Wise
(86146)
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Giolito is quite the dude but I'm guessing the majority of said ghost's tingly feelings would be directed toward the guy who's #3 on this list.

 
Ezra Wise
(86146)
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I think I get it, and if that's the case, he's been known to have that sort of impact on observers.

 
Ezra Wise
(86146)
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Yeah. "Demigod" over "God". I figured partial sacrilege was better than full-on sacrilege.

 
Ezra Wise
(86146)
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There are a few more of these pieces in the works right now.

Feb 04, 2016 9:16 AM on All Dahled Up
 
Ezra Wise
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I'd say it's partially a function of my personal beliefs (and training) as an evaluator. The 8 (or 80) is there for a reason and if a player shows strong indications that he's going to be a top-of-the-rotation stud--one of the best pitchers in baseball--then that 8 needs to get dropped.

 
Ezra Wise
(86146)
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Yeah. A Role 8 isn't something to throw around lightly, especially when it comes to pitchers, but w/ five BP prospect team members past and present (me, Tuck, Witt, Mellen, and Parker) dropping an 8, it was a pretty easy decision.

 
Ezra Wise
(86146)
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Is that a Candy Crush reference?

 
Ezra Wise
(86146)
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It would be concerning if Reyes were an older player, closer to contributing at the ML level but he's so young that it won't really affect his ultimate projection in any way. That said, don't be surprised if his offensive output is slightly depressed in the first half of 2016 as it usually takes hitters a while to fully recover from hamate injuries.

Feb 03, 2016 12:52 PM on The Ones Who Just Missed
 
Ezra Wise
(86146)
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...and there's that Machado guy already there.

Feb 03, 2016 11:58 AM on The Ones Who Just Missed
 
Ezra Wise
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His tools would probably even play at 3B but of course there's a much steeper learning curve there than at a corner OF spot.

Feb 03, 2016 11:57 AM on The Ones Who Just Missed
 
Ezra Wise
(86146)
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If he ends up moving off the position it'll likely be because of accelerated development with the stick. Let's say he destroys Double-A in 2016 (which is entirely possible) but the glove isn't even close to being ready. If he really pushes the organization's hand as a guy that can't be held down any longer, a corner outfield position might be the best landing spot.

Feb 03, 2016 11:56 AM on The Ones Who Just Missed
 
Ezra Wise
(86146)
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Davidson is definitely interesting, but as a one-tool, probable first baseman who features "old player" tendencies already as 19 year old, he wasn't in the mix for consideration. If he makes some strides with the hit tool in the coming years, he'll have a case, but there wasn't anything pushing our hand this time around.

 
Ezra Wise
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If a pitcher were over-swashbuckling, based on his confidence in a catcher's receiving ability, wouldn't he be be doing his over-swashbuckling toward the edges of the zone--low yield regions for a hitter that aren't likely to result in <span class="statdef"><a href="http://www.baseballprospectus.com/glossary/index.php?search=HR" onmouseover="doTooltip(event, jpfl_getStat('HR'))" onmouseout="hideTip()">HR</span></a>?

 
Ezra Wise
(86146)
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Thanks. We really appreciate your breaking ball...or at least you bizarro twin's breaking ball!

Feb 01, 2016 1:34 PM on Next Year's Risers
 
Ezra Wise
(86146)
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...a game in which Jay started, and went 6+.

Feb 01, 2016 12:11 PM on Next Year's Risers
 
Ezra Wise
(86146)
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Haha. You beat me to it. In Coach Hartleb's defense, Jay was deployed as more of a relief ace, often pitching multiple innings per appearance, than as a straight up one inning reliever type.

Feb 01, 2016 10:57 AM on Next Year's Risers
 
Ezra Wise
(86146)
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Of course I'm shamelessly plugging my own work here, but check this piece out for an explanation of the industry-wide SS fetish. http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=28185

 
Ezra Wise
(86146)
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As a group, we're not all that high on Story. He's likely not a SS long-term and there are real concerns about his hit tool. He's much more appealing from a fantasy perspective because of Coors but based on his true talent projection, he's most likely a 2nd-Div type. Me: http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=27760 Al: http://www.baseballprospectus.com/prospects/eyewitness_bat.php?reportid=256

 
Ezra Wise
(86146)
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I'm higher on Trahan than my benevolent leader Mr. Crawford (and most I think). I really dig the swing. There's a lot of noise pre-launch but he gets in position on time, keeps the barrel moving well and delivers the barrel with violence through the zone. It was a big year for college shortstops but I'm a little surprised he didn't get popped sooner on draft day.

 
Ezra Wise
(86146)
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Luckily Catchella is tomorrow!

Jan 11, 2016 9:05 AM on Scouting for Converts
 
Ezra Wise
(86146)
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The "blank slate" idea is pretty compelling. I suppose it depends mostly on the teaching abilities within a club's PD ranks. I've wondered before about how many wins a club would gain by gobbling up a whole bunch of the best retired receiving catchers and deploying them as coaches and roving instructors throughout the system. For example, how many wins is <span class="playerdef"><a href="http://www.baseballprospectus.com/player_search.php?search_name=Jose+Molina">Jose Molina</a></span> worth as a Catching Coordinator in the LAA system? As for the evolution of framing techniques, I'd argue they've changed noticeably (of course I wasn't alive in the 70s and 80s so my perspective is limited to what I've seen on video). For example, you just don't see catchers stab at the ball the way <span class="playerdef"><a href="http://www.baseballprospectus.com/card/card.php?id=26582">Thurman Munson</a></span>, presumably one of the best defensive catchers of his era, does in the below video. On some pitches, he carries the ball out of the zone with his glove post-reception and supinates his wrist/glove to catch pitches. These days, you don't see ML catchers supinate unless the ball is way out of the zone to the glove side. It's a major tell to the umpire that the pitch is likely a ball, especially it's thrown to the third-base side of the plate. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jEFDIoSX2jg

Jan 11, 2016 9:04 AM on Scouting for Converts
 
Ezra Wise
(86146)
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We've seen the conventions that guide corner outfield deployment shift a bit in recent years thanks to an improved understanding of defensive value. IOW, the hulking slugger corner outfield profile (<span class="playerdef"><a href="http://www.baseballprospectus.com/player_search.php?search_name=Dante+Bichette">Dante Bichette</a></span>, <span class="playerdef"><a href="http://www.baseballprospectus.com/card/card.php?id=1070">Greg Vaughn</a></span>, etc.) isn't nearly as prevalent.

Jan 11, 2016 8:24 AM on Scouting for Converts
 
Ezra Wise
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Third Base: P 1525 1.0% C 12625 8.0% 1B 27497 17.5% 2B 9131 5.8% 3B 68610 43.7% SS 6601 4.2% LF 11259 7.2% CF 1684 1.1% RF 6410 4.1% DH 11676 7.4% Second Base: P 123 0.2% C 450 0.6% 1B 3026 4.1% 2B 39372 53.8% 3B 13720 18.8% SS 5296 7.2% LF 4013 5.5% CF 2193 3.0% RF 2529 3.5% DH 2440 3.3% First Base: P 3353 2.45% C 3951 2.88% 1B 94072 68.63% 2B 379 0.28% 3B 5990 4.37% SS 30 0.02% LF 9095 6.63% CF 815 0.59% RF 4397 3.21% DH 14997 10.94%

Jan 11, 2016 8:16 AM on Scouting for Converts
 
Ezra Wise
(86146)
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Re: THROW > RUN I agree. RUN is probably one or two ranks too high for a number of positions. This is just one version of the matrix though. On alternate (and more agreeable) versions, RUN only appears in the top three for SS and CF. Re: SP-><span class="statdef"><a href="http://www.baseballprospectus.com/glossary/index.php?search=RP" onmouseover="doTooltip(event, jpfl_getStat('RP'))" onmouseout="hideTip()">RP</span></a> You're right about the "7-4-3" guy but I wouldn't entirely rule out the "5-5-4-4" guy's potential as a reliever if starting doesn't work. Yes, relievers typically have at least one elite, carrying pitch but those 5s have the potential to become 6s if deployed in short, max-effort bursts.

Jan 11, 2016 7:50 AM on Scouting for Converts
 
Ezra Wise
(86146)
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Good point. I'll post equivalent data for some other positions.

Jan 11, 2016 7:25 AM on Scouting for Converts
 
Ezra Wise
(86146)
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You're absolutely right. "The vacuum" versus the realities of a club's particular roster construction is an important distinction. With Tulowitzki now in the fold, it's likely that Donaldson at 3B and Tulowitzki at SS is the optimal deployment strategy for the Jays. What if Donaldson were a free agent right now though? Wouldn't it be prudent for teams with a shortstop need to at least consider him?

Jan 11, 2016 7:24 AM on Scouting for Converts
 
Ezra Wise
(86146)
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Consider that peak <span class="playerdef"><a href="http://www.baseballprospectus.com/card/card.php?id=45472">Brendan Ryan</a></span> was a legit 8 defender.

 
Ezra Wise
(86146)
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The Henry comp is probably a bit harsh. Holder is a refined defender and has a strong chance to stick (a phrase you'd never hear associated with Henry) but his bat is awfully light. Realistically, he's a SS-capable utility IF.

 
Ezra Wise
(86146)
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To clarify...minus the plus defensive ability at 2B.

 
Ezra Wise
(86146)
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Yeah. I think so. "BP Light" would probably be more appropriate.

 
Ezra Wise
(86146)
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<span class="playerdef"><a href="http://www.baseballprospectus.com/card/card.php?id=105439">Cedric Mullins</a></span> as a late first-rounder in the GOT name draft?

 
Ezra Wise
(86146)
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How about Kobe Basketball? The "y" sound is already built in.

 
Ezra Wise
(86146)
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You make a very good point. Unless an organization is familiar with a player on a personal level (e.g. <span class="playerdef"><a href="http://www.baseballprospectus.com/card/card.php?id=66967">Cito Culver</a></span> playing for the NYY scout team) its scouts are forced to step out of the "information vacuum" to an extent and fold second-hand opinions of a player's makeup into their evaluations. Check this out. It's really great. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ridYcBwmWCc&t=12m40s

Dec 04, 2015 12:57 PM on Good Scouts Look Away
 
Ezra Wise
(86146)
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"That is an interesting take. Every scout that I have ever met has already known exactly what they were looking to see prior to warm-ups." I'M GUESSING YOU'RE REFERRING TO AMATEUR SCOUTING HERE. IT'S LIKELY THAT THE AMATEUR SCOUTS YOU'VE INTERACTED WITH HAD ALREADY BUILT UP A COLLECTION OF IN-PERSON LOOKS AT THE PLAYERS THEY WERE THERE TO SEE. GETTING A LOT OF LOOKS IS IMPORTANT BUT ONE EVENTUALLY REACHES A POINT AT WHICH ADDITIONAL LOOKS DON'T REALLY ADD MUCH ONE WAY OR THE OTHER TO THE PLAYER'S EVALUATION. "More often than not, they leave after they have seen what they came to see." SOMETIMES ON THE AMATEUR BEAT BECAUSE A SCOUT IS TYPICALLY AT A GAME TO SEE ONE PLAYER IN PARTICULAR. ALMOST NEVER IN PRO COVERAGE BECAUSE HE'S RESPONSIBLE FOR WRITING UP AN ENTIRE CLUB.

Dec 04, 2015 11:01 AM on Good Scouts Look Away
 
Ezra Wise
(86146)
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I personally will never forget <span class="playerdef"><a href="http://www.baseballprospectus.com/card/card.php?id=47155">Drew Butera</a></span>'s half inning of defensive mastery.

 
Ezra Wise
(86146)
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Ah yes. The Capps Era. I believe that came between the Cenozoic and Mezozoic Eras, right?

 
Ezra Wise
(86146)
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You're absolutely right. Very real tools--plus raw, high 90s off the mound in college and CF-capable defensive value. He's been hampered by injuries along the way but really put things together in 2015. Hit tool utility is the biggest question mark. Even if it doesn't come on, he has a strong chance to make an ML impact thanks to the three plus or better tools he does have.

 
Ezra Wise
(86146)
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In general, I'm a firm believer in TINSTAAEHMA (there is no such thing as an easy hitting mechanics adjustment). Wow, that really doesn't roll of the tongue well. In any case, the positive mechanical adjustments hitters make almost never come easily. The introduction of a new movement pattern can be fairly disruptive to the finely tuned chain of movements a hitter aleady has in place. Hes not only learning a new movement but also attempting to forget the old, inefficient movement, while simultaneously trying to maintain coordination between all of the disparate elements of his swing.