CSS Button No Image Css3Menu.com
New! Search comments:
(NOTE: Relevance, Author, and Article are not applicable for comment searches)
I read this whole article hoping that Randy the Random Number Generator would make an appearance. He's just as good as any other forecaster!
Somewhat ironic that your sarcastic disapproval of someone else's straightforward disapproval requires the use of four full lines of all-caps text to land the "joke."
A comment indicating that the content wasn't great is just as legitimate as any other comment, IMO.
But who am I? Just some guy from the Internet.
I agreed with you.
"...Alex Rodriguez is a joy to watch and a cool guy to boot..."
Man, 2000 was a long time ago.
Is it in the BP Stylebook that every Friday Hit List must include a Rebecca Black reference?
"They offered around $3 million; Whichever and his agent, Scott Boras, wanted $4 million..."
Is this a joke or overzealous AutoCorrect in action?
"This was the Nationals’ first season as the Nationals, and they chose to define themselves by following the model set by a team who a) hadn’t had a winning record in seven years, and wouldn’t have one in seven years and who b) played in the market that the Nationals were attempting to steal, the market in which the Nationals were attempting to differentiate themselves."
Since Frank Robinson played as an Oriole during the time the Oriole Way was ascendant, and you ranked that old-model Oriole Way number 6 on the all-time Ways list, this seems a little harsh. The Oriole teams he was on won two World Series and had that one stretch where they won 318 games in three years. Pretty good way to copy, if you had to pick one.
As a Nats fan, I could not be happier that Rizzo took over for Bowden in the GM spot. This story sounds just like how I had thought they would both be as negotiators.
Question: Is the intent of using the "minus" sign to indicate a comment one disagrees with, or a comment that is detracting from the discussion? I thought it was the latter. While I enjoyed this piece a lot, I certainly think people are well within their rights to prefer a more traditional preseason preview, too.
Pretty sure scouts from the Dodgers rated it an 80 or so, particularly in the other-cheek-turning department.
This story is entertaining and this analysis helps make it more entertaining. Good job!
More to the point, the Nats are putting the 2005 Nationals back together. Ayala and Carroll plus Zim.
South of Robert E. Lee Highway and west of Jefferson Davis Highway, that's where lots of young folk want to hang out.
Jamey Carroll was an original Nat, back in 2005. Also, some significant subpopulation of the ladies just loved him. You could hear squeals every time he came up to bat. So the signing has resonance for the Nats fanbase beyond the general need for a backup UT in case Danny can't find his bat again.
Thanks, good to know.
Enjoyed the piece, but I am not familiar with "cambio" as a synonym for "change-up." Is that a common term?
They should do one for David Price. Gotta keep that stove hot!
I was waiting for a Cano/Jay-Z reference to "Can't Knock the Hustle" or "Dead Presidents."
Zim's defense was definitely below par for most of the year, but he appeared to be recovering his former prowess for the last couple months. I'd say any talk of him moving to the cold corner is premature, both for the LaRoche contractual reasons and the need to see whether the improvements of August and September represent a return to form. Zim's offense is slightly above-average at first but near-elite at third, and he's being paid as a near-elite player - why not try to get all the value you can from him?
The Nats are going to be pretty loaded if the random number generator's unassailable predictions come true. Sometimes I dream of the Nats signing Cano, though, so we don't have to watch Anthony Rendon try to field at second, or Danny Espinosa try to hit the ball. (Though I still hold out hope that Danny can rediscover his mediocre batting form so that his glove can play as a starter.)
I'm glad I'm not the only one who greatly prefers the Web site to the annual. And I came to BP through the annual originally.
Here are my pet peeves about the annual:
1. Many, many, many more players are projected to exceed their PECOTA in the narrative comments than are projected to fall short of them. How is this possible? Answer: the narrative comments are normally wrong.
2. Misspelled words, typos, missing words, grammar problems, general haste-induced sloppiness. Some of the errors would show up with the red underline in Word.
3. Team essays varied widely in quality. I guess that might continue?
I don't think it's correct to say "For the last couple seasons, the Nationals have invested very little energy and resources into a no. 6 starter," given that they paid John Lannan $5 million to pitch in Triple-A for most of the year in 2012. They invested very little energy and resources this year, that's the truth, and it is hurting them. But Lannan pitched capably after Strasburg's shutdown last year.
I'm still optimistic about the Nats, but this season has been a sobering one.
Giving the umpires more discretion regarding actions intended to deceive the baserunner sounds good in theory but probably wouldn't work in practice. I do think it's unfair to give people a balk because they fall over while attempting to pitch - that's insult added to injury.
The most fun part about balks is probably screaming at the ump to call one on the opposing team's pitcher, which means balking should probably be significantly scaled back.
"Joey Votto and Miguel Cabrera, for instance, avoid making an out about 55 percent of the time."
I think the word "avoid" doesn't belong in this sentence.
I would enjoy it if all trade negotiations ended with "No backsies."
The Nats pen is the one part of the team where there are enough functioning players, plus they'll have Ryan Mattheus back soon. I stand by my statement that Karns probably won't see MLB again this year. (I made no declaration about the longer term.)
Nate Karns was already up for the Nats this season. It wasn't pretty. I doubt they'll go to that well again this year.
The Nats are flailing. But it's easier to get a new hitting coach than a new center fielder, third baseman, first baseman, et alia. (They already got a new second baseman.) Someone's gotta take the fall.
Yes, I got confused between the first and second hits somehow. Anyway, any time Ross gets on base, we're all happy, particularly when it appears to have been a trick of chance as that one was.
I don't think everyone in Nats Park has read your study of Detwiler's hitting, but most Nats fans are aware of what a terrible hitter he is. A line drive from his bat just blew people's minds.
I went to the game last night when Zimmermann finally faced the Tigers. The only hitter he threw a lot of offspeed stuff to was (surprise) Cabrera, where he was trying to get first-pitch strikes with the slider and also get the curve over. Cabrera hit the ball hard multiple times, but only one of them fell for a hit. Double-N had five non-Anibal Sanchez strikeouts, two of Prince Fielder, who he was challenging with heat - Prince got a titanic double to lead off the second but was otherwise neutralized.
Overall, a strong outing anytime you hold the Tigers offense to one run over 7 innings, although there were a few hits sprinkled through there. My perception was that Zimmermann didn't change his approach so much as look for the strikeout when the patient Tigers hitters worked the count into two-strike territory. He was pounding the zone early in the count trying to induce weak contact, and more often than not got it (again, except against Cabrera. I don't know how that guy ever makes outs).
Especially for the makeup tool
Thanks for clarifying on the first sentence. I agree with you now that I get that one.
PECOTA is definitely wrong sometimes. The analysis I enjoy most on this site is the analysis that either shows something in the statistics that I would not have expected to find, or shows something in performance that I have been unable to observe with my inexpert eye. If someone with access to the numbers says that PECOTA is wrong, I enjoy it when that person mounts an argument with specific reasons and indicators and stuff. This whole website is in some ways an argument against going with the hunch in your gut, and for being able to back up what you say with specifics (sabermetric or non-).
"Saving it for your book" is just an expression, implying that you're holding something back for another forum. Upon reflection, I didn't really think or mean that. My apologies.
Adam Sobsey's disquisition on Strasburg is bizarre:
"Unless the Nats are PR fools, they'll run Strasburg out there every fifth day until the end of the season, and we're done with the silliness."
Clearly they were not sitting Strasburg down for PR purposes, so why would they suddenly yield to the dictates of PR if they felt it was necessary to do otherwise?
"Had they done exactly what they did last year with a full season of Strasburg, no one would have complained."
I don't even understand that sentence. Poorly worded.
"To my thinking, it was tentative rookie coddling, and the training wheels are off from here on out."
It wasn't "rookie coddling," it was a plan to ensure a successful recovery from injury. Strasburg was a rookie in 2010. You can disagree with the plan - lots of people did - but I'm not sure why you'd characterize it as "rookie coddling."
"All that said, I think we're done and he's simply a pitcher now—and a really good one. But something tells me he won't be quite the elite ace he was once destined to be."
PECOTA thinks you're wrong, but I'm sure that "something" is a really compelling reason you're saving for your book.
"Lost in the uproar over the R.A. Dickey trade is the fact that GM Sandy Alderson has quietly assembled a solid core of young players..."
"...you’ll notice that Alderson is quietly doing what he did with Oakland back in the 1980s: slowly building a solid core while the farm system replenishes."
Sandy Alderson apparently does it so quietly and solidly that you gotta say it twice.
Tangential note: The difficulty associated with assessing baserunning on TV is just another reason it's more fun to watch baseball live. Baseball's the same as football in that there are a number of processes happening at once when a ball is in play, but in baseball those processes are few enough that you can (mostly) pay attention to all of them at once. You see the ball drop, you see how far the runner is off first, and you know he got a good jump.
This is remarkably excellent. I hope this feature becomes a yearly tradition! More bad baseball watching for Sam!
I enjoy the surname "Cloyd." It has a fun sound to it, like you took the superfluous "l" from "Lloyd" and replaced it with an action consonant. Plus I'm sure someone has used "cloyed" as a verb sometime.
No one, least of all me, said the Giants weren't a good team. It takes more than luck to win that many games over a three-year period.
But to some extent, they got lucky in the playoffs en route to their two championships. They managed to win three in a row against the Cards in 2012, for example. Or, say they lose Game 5 of the NLDS to the Reds - say Jay Bruce gets a more of that fly ball in the ninth inning, pushing it out, and Cincy gets the walkoff victory - and the Giants' postseason record for the two years in question is suddenly 13-6. Not quite as impressive.
I clearly am not going to convince you, but I wanted to explain my position a little more anyway. That's life on the Internet for you.
What would you have said if the Giants had lost one of games 5, 6, or 7 in the NLCS last year? That management was incompetent for not putting together a team capable of advancing to the World Series? Or that the Giants faced a hot, veteran-laden team and didn't have enough of the bounces go their way?
If a team can lose due to bad luck, it can win due to good luck. I thought the proposition that a team's won-loss record over a short span may be due to a combination of talent and luck would be uncontroversial on a site like BP.
I appreciate the efforts to explain what PECOTA may be seeing when it issues its gloomy forecasts.
What baseball grammar overlord lurks behind the passive voice you have employed?
I +1'ed for including McGeorge Bundy. That's old-school.
I think I'm actually going to miss seeing that some team has a 96 percent chance to go to the playoffs on the first day of the season, then watching that steadily decline as they played below expectations. (Or the experience like last year of watching the Nationals' playoff odds climb.) It's like watching conventional wisdom be proved wrong by reality in real time.
It looks like L.J. Hoes may be playing in several different area codes.
Are there any issues or blind spots in the baserunning stats that might explain some of the lack of correlation? Just from observation, I find it hard to believe that the Nationals as a team last year were one of the 20 worst baserunning teams in the past 50+ years. I'd say "average or slightly below."
Or "Beepers going off like Don Trump gets checks
Keep my bases loaded like the New York Mets"
Wale is always going to skew things towards D.C. athletes. Who else would have a lyrical reference to a guy who left the Maryland men's basketball team in ignominy ("Home of the Terrapins, beware of the [John] Gilchrist")? As a D.C. suburbs resident and sports fan, I love this to no end.
Thanks. That's interesting. Maybe I am completely backwards on the issue!
A note on Desmond's defense: I don't really believe FRAA on that topic. From watching him, he has great range to his right and OK range to his left/up the middle. He had severe throwing yips in 2010 that seem to be corrected now.
When the evaluations disagree, I'd like to be able to see some kind of report indicating why FRAA has come to the judgment that it has. Like, FRAA doesn't see this aspect of his game working as well as average. Otherwise I'm just looking at a humber trying to figure out what it means when juxtaposed with my experience. I'm not against being proven wrong, but I don't really know what FRAA has proven for any individual player.
In general, I am leery of a long-term extension for Desmond unless it is a bargain for the team. Let him put together one more good year before paying the piper.
This is a great article. On the rare occasions when Gio struggled last year, I hypothesized that he was having trouble repeating his delivery. It's nice when someone with actual knowledge confirms your untutored suspicion.
It is rare to see a stupid pun as extensively and inventively worked out as this. I salute you, Sam Miller.
edit: $4 billion
I think the keys for the Nats were:
1. In addition to Storen's injury to start the season, Clippard was clearly gassed at the end of last season. The training wheels will be off Jordan Zimmermann this year, but Strasburg is still going to be babied a little to get through the year. Many bullpen hands will make lighter work.
2. Ted Lerner is 87 years old and worth nearly #4 billion. He was a Senators fan during their tenure in D.C. He's a businessman, and he knows about cycles. If he smells a championship, clearly he can find a way to shake loose a few nickles.
Ted Lerner is worth $3.9 billion and is 87 years old: http://www.forbes.com/profile/ted-lerner/
After seeing his team win 98 games last year but fail to advance out of the divisional playoffs, I'm not sure he has a budget. $6.75 million isn't much to him. He can just raise rents at Tysons Corner if he's starting to feel a pinch somehow.
Mike Rizzo seems to be pretty good at finding himself in serendipitous situations.
Hard not to love Morse. In the event that he departs, I hope they'll continue to play "Take On Me" at Nats Park, perhaps between innings.
This is very entertaining, although mocking moronic Internet trade proposals is kind of like shooting Marlins in a barrel.
I wonder what would happen if the announcers tried to describe a detailed scouting report for each batter-pitcher matchup? Probably this has been researched and the conclusion was "everyone's head would explode."
This is a good premise for an article (especially during the long cold offseason). I would totally read another round of this.
The GED part is a good point - I thought you were referring specifically to his ascension to the Nationals' lineup, rather than his entry into pro ball.
The offseason is a long one, I agree.
"Where every borderline-reckless Harper hustle play feels like a conscious refutation of his reputation for arrogance..."
Or like he's hustling?
"That's Harper, who took a route to the Nationals lineup that we hadn't seen before."
Wait, no one's ever brought up a teenager to play in the majors in recorded history?
I completely don't understand the perception of Harper outside the greater DC area, where I am from. But talk about a person who has been over-narrativized, even/especially in this article, and I think you've got to talk about Bryce Harper.
BTW, Harper's favorite food in the DC area is apparently the fancy Pop-Tarts sold at Ted's Bulletin, so I hereby state that he is like a fancy Pop-Tart: normally, a product fit only to serve the young, yet elevated with fine ingredients and careful preparation so that it can grace the adult table as well.
So who plays outfield for the Twins now?
It seems like Revere cost almost as much as, or even more than, Span - is Meyer such a better prospect than May that the deals are closer to even than it appears? I don't quite know how to value a proven but injured starter. Span appears to me to be a distinctly better player than Revere at this stage in their careers.
In which CFR title can one find the Jeff Francis regulations? I assume it's Title 45, Public Welfare, but I wanted to check. Thanks.
I like the trade for both teams. Nats get cost certainty, plus defense, and decent offense at the CF position for two years with a third year as an option, enough time to see whether Goodwin can hack it in the majors. It also gives the Nats a backup plan if LaRoche wants to pursue riches elsewhere (shift Morse to first, as they did when LaRoche was injured in 2011). Twins get a blue-chip starting pitching prospect - and one who throws hard! It's a good trade given where both teams are.
I enjoyed the article, but I disagree on Harper's brand of hustle-ism not working over the long term. For a young player, he seems remarkably good at picking his spots; many newspaper articles this year documented Harper picking the brains of his older teammates about fielders. His single-stretched-to-double off Jason Heyward, for example, took advantage of a well-observed tendency. It's not like he had a bunch of baserunning miscues last year - BP has him at 5.4 BRR, which matches with my closely observed subjective record. He's just slightly less risk-averse than most players, and the record shows so far that his strategy is working out.
Fine work as usual, but just wanted to express my particular appreciation for the reference in the headline. As the radio would have it, y'all are true [record scratch] players.
This was tremendous fun. Excellent work.
The No Guac party is essentially every party I've ever held to watch sports, except that the TV has never talked back to us, probably because we always have guac.
I was waiting for someone to say this.
I agree that the Yankess should dump all those players. Throw in Cano too, just for grins.
In the first game, Wainwright seemed to have figured out that his curveball was basically unrecognizable and thus unhittable given the shadows. A two-strike count meant the at-bat was over. This time will be night time, and that advantage will dissipate. It's a good curveball but not that good without a little help.
How was Strasburg going to make the Nats score more than 7 runs in the 3 games played thus far? Did Strasburg put Hot Stuff in Jordan Zimmermann's jockstrap on Monday, or Edwin Jackson's today, out of a fit of pique? I fail to see how Strasburg has caused the complete collapse of the rest of the Nationals starting rotation and offense...unless it is, indeed, a psychological thing. But if the other 24 Nationals' psyches are that delicate, they weren't going to win anything in October anyway.
I assume SportsCenter hosts don't have their pay docked if their bosses see them reading BP or other baseball-related sites. Maybe they do the quick window-switch to hide their perusal of the Guardian's cultural coverage or something.
That's some high-quality Angelos bashing.
This is an excellent preview, providing info on a few things that I (a high-info Nats fan) had been wondering about. Thanks.
If you really loved it, you'd have written "absolutely adore alliteration."
This article actually made me sympathetic to a Phillie, which is an amazing feat.
I concur with respect to Desmond. He's not in the top tier of shortstops defensively, but he's got a lot of range. I watch most Nats games and really don't see how he's nearly 12 runs a game worse than average (as of this writing). The Nats are a fine defensive team this year (sixth in Park-Adjusted Defensive Efficiency as of this writing) and Desmond contributes to that, rather than detracting from it.
My favorite baseball book as well. I love introducing people to it.
If you go, you can take light rail from BWI to Camden Yards, stay overnight there, then take the MARC train from Baltimore's train station (also light-rail accessible) to Union Station in DC. From Union Station you can take the Metro or the DC Circulator bus to the ballpark.
You can also do it the opposite way (MARC train from BWI to DC, then MARC back to Baltimore and then the light rail around town).
If I have to spend large chunks of my day sitting on my butt, I prefer to do it while riding in public transport and not while driving. Your mileage (ha-ha) may vary.
But still, do come for some baseball tourism! MD and DC would both appreciate it.
I concur with everything you just said. I should have written "295 is the most direct way but will inevitably take 30 minutes or more longer than you had planned."
No, Rizzo and company have chosen a path that they think gave Strasburg the best chance for success this year, in his limited role, and in future years. The "creative" suggestions you describe were examined and rejected as potentially hazardous deviations from a routine that is important to recovery in and of itself. The path they've chosen has worked quite well for Jordan Zimmermann, although no one noticed last year because the Nats weren't sniffing the playoffs.
The human element might not beat the Reds or Yankees come October, but there are 24 other guys on the team who collectively have a decent shot at doing so. I wish there was some magic wand one could wave to heal ligaments, but until then everyone is going to do the best he can with each individual circumstance.
This is not a substantive comment, but D.C. and Baltimore don't share a Beltway - D.C.'s is I-495 and B-more's is I-695. So the rivalry has been dubbed (by Massa Angelos' Sports Network) the "Battle of the Beltways." To me, the "Parkway Rumble" would be more appropriate, since the most direct way to drive between Nationals Park and OPACY is the Baltimore-Washington Parkway. As noted, beside the point, but I thought you'd want to know.
As a Nationals fan, I point you to the following helpful statistic regarding team defense:
Note that WAS is 2nd (as of this writing), ATL 16th.
An incredibly self-indulgent writer wants an advice column. Oh boy. "There's plenty of other content on this site," I keep reminding myself.
Lovely piece, finds the balance between humility and hubris when it comes to statistical questing. Also I am glad you have a new Enterprise to play with.
As a fellow Nats fan, I'm just glad we're rolling the dice and thinking creatively about ways to get better talent than might otherwise be available at the spot in which we are picking. Not every one of these picks has to work out for the strategy to be right-minded.
My impression of Harper is that he is also human, of the species Homo sapiens sapiens. He stops to play softball by the Washington Monument, he eats fancy Pop-Tarts for breakfast at a local restaurant, he hopes to bring his dog to D.C. I'm not sure how Harper's apparently greater fluency with the media translates to a talent advantage for Trout. Still, Trout is definitely having the better year thus far, and it will be fun to watch the two of them over what one hopes will be the coming couple decades of excellent play.
Not one but two former Jim Bowden-era Nationals who had lots of tools and tried to use them in the outfield! Of course Lastings had the sixth tool of being a tool.
I remember how much hand-wringing there was on BP when the Nats traded Milledge to the Pirates, with Christina Karhl saying he was likely the most valuable player in the trade: http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=9158 That works nicely if you change "most" to "least." Just one edit.
Also, this comment on that article was very comical: "Why the hell did Washington just give up value to acquire Morgan when they traded away an identical player in Ryan Langerhans for nothing (Mike Morse) the previous day?"
Retrospective looks at player transactions should teach us all some humility, as the Shannon Stewart comments above indicate.
Wily Mo Pena should be employed by some team as a batting-practice draw. It was a majestic sight to see. When the pitchers were trying to get him out, always another story.
Not to disagree with anything you wrote, but it should be noted that it took a tremendous amount of batted-ball luck for the Giants to build that lead in the first place.
What about Homer Simpson's alias Max Power? He has his own whole way of doing things (i.e., the wrong way, but faster).
I'm beginning to expect this level of writing when I click on your byline, Sam, and almost always I get it. Great to be a BP subscriber and get to see it multiple times a week.
No love in "What to Watch For" for the Bryce Harper-Cole Hamels rematch? I'll certainly be watching for that.
I root for both the Tigers and the Nats, and it was a privilege to get to watch Pudge at both those stops. During his time with the Nats, you could see his bat and feet had slowed, but he still called a great game and played defense like a demon. His gun to second still worked quite well, in particular. He also handled the emergence of Wilson Ramos with the maximum possible level of class. A great player, no matter what the HOF says, although I hope he gains entry in 2017 or soon after.
Nice writeup. It's John Lannan, not Lannon, FYI.
This article makes several excellent points. I wish I were a writer for an esteemed publication such as Baseball Prospectus, rather than toiling away at my current job. Then life would be sweet!
Articles by Sam Miller are now must-clicks for me.
I agree in the disappointment regarding not adding a bat. I just don't see anyone in the trade other than Cole being a potential significant impact player. If Oakland's lucky Peacock might end up being a legit third starter.
As a Nats fan, I love this trade. Norris was blocked, Milone's ceiling couldn't be any lower if he was actually a Hobbit, Cole is a long way away, and Peacock is ready to be a decent starter, but not as good as Gonzalez is right now. Where all else is equal-ish, my bias is always towards the guy who has proven it over the prospect, and Gonzalez has proven it at the big-league level for two years now. Plus, he'll only be 26 next year - still a while to improve a little for him.
I enjoy the retrospectives of the people who made the ballot but won't make the Hall more than the debates about Hall-ish candidates. The Revisiting the careers of the minor starts of the recent past is always fun.
This is truly an excellent piece of work.
My suggestions (and yes, I have thought about this too much):
Pupusas. Sure, there's a lack of familiarity, but this Salvadoran fast-food delight is really just two small tortillas fried up with beans and/or cheese, plus an optional additional filling. Unlike the burrito, it's easy to hold and eat without making a mess, and ballparks could serve delicious Salvadoran coleslaw on the side.
Samosas. Another handheld delight. Note that things being handheld and fried are key on this list.
A state fair booth serving the latest in deep-fried goodness. This should be updated regularly with innovations from around the country. Just because I don't live in Iowa doesn't mean I shouldn't get to eat fried butter, dammit.
Fresh fruit. Yeah, after all that. The hot-dog cart outside the stadium can sell me a banana, but the stadium itself can't? I fail to see the institutional issues involved (except perhaps the fan rebellion about a banana being sold for $2.50 or some ridiculous amount).
Finally, if Jason Parks thinks you can put a communal cheese dipping urn within 50 feet of a Phillies fan without results that are unfortunate, likely verging on tragic, he hasn't seen enough Phillies fans.
I was just talking with one of my buddies about 6 and 7, which are essentially the same. This would make baseball a LOT more watchable. I like the rhythm of baseball, but not when it's funeral-march slow.
"If the Nats sign a first baseman this winter, Morse will likely fill the hole in left."
Did we already send Adam LaRoche to the glue factory? He's due $8 million to play first for us in 2012.
Also, Morse is a terrible LF right now, just awful at judging line drives and charting routes to where he needs to be. Maybe he has upside, but he's no sure thing in the outfield.
I'm also not convinced that it's a good idea to trade a bunch of prospects for another low-average, high-strikeout, low-OBP hitter like BJ Upton to go with our current collection of such batters. Although it is something that Jim Bowden would think we should do, that incompetent maroon.
I'd support the Nats treading water in CF until a candidate who is actually desirable becomes available. We're not going to be contending in 2012 anyway, with Philly and ATL still the class of the division. 2013 is the year to load up for.
One might also note that the recent trend in Span's performance has been down from his 2008-9 levels, and that he's four years older than Storen. Storen is also under club control for the next four years, Span only two.
Roger Bernadina is no big loss, but the Twins were according to some reports asking for Steve Lombardozzi to round out the package, and he's been coming on as a middle-infield prospect this year.
I'm a Nats fan, and for these and the reasons cited by sjberke above, I have little regret about not making this trade.
Would that I could click the + button a million times.
How 'bout them Nats!
Just wanted to say I also appreciate an informed dissenting opinion.
Morgan is a great player when he's hitting .350, but not so great when he's hitting .250. He had worn out his welcome in Natstown primarily by doing the latter. If he had hit .350 last year, I'm sure the Nats would have found a way for Werth and Morgan to get along.
Thank you for your respectful response. I pay $40 a year for access to the Premium content on this site and expect the writing to achieve a certain minimal standard of professionalism. I am glad I can count on you to take pride in your work.
"...you will notice that the ball makes a unique sound coming off the bat; it sounds like a canon blast..."
Has BP completely given up on copy editing?
I enjoyed this piece a lot. Now I must become a pedant. The phrase "center around" is a solecism. The show centers on Ron Perlman's character, or it revolves around it, but nothing can "center around" something, as a quick consideration of the geometry involved will prove.
Other than that, as I said, great read.
You forgot about being white. Not necessary, but it does seem to help.
And now, of course, the Nats have sent Harper down to A ball...as everyone knew they were going to all along.
It was interesting to read the data on teenage players, I must admit.
I second the call for Goldman to cite actual people calling for Harper to break camp with the Nats. No one of my acquaintance has said anything like that.
The BP habit of tucking insults into every nook and cranny of available sentences is wearing on me as well.
I'm a Nats partial-season ticket holder, and...you know how it's more pleasant when your team wins games? I certainly enjoy the feeling after the Nats have won the game a lot more than the feeling after they lose. Intellectually, I can appreciate the arguments for moving Dunn. But as an emotional person, I'm happy every time I see him in the batter's box, because it means we have a better chance to win the game than if Adam Kennedy is in as a defensive replacement or whatever.
In short, even accepting the validity of your arguments, I would have cheered. (And did cheer, the next day.)
The Nats aren't getting production from Pudge, either. The days of him hitting .450 are resoundingly over. He's been a terrible flailer for the past couple months. Still, I think we'll have to wait until September to see Ramos, unless Nieves breaks something.
Yeah, that one has the winning pitcher of the All-Star Game in it!
You can read James' book for a good first crack at those teams...
I remember all the BP handwringing about the Nats trading Milledge, on the basis that he was "the likely best player in the deal" (in Christina's phrase). Morgan's been no prize this year, but he lit it up in 2009, and Milledge has done exactly squat for the Pirates just as he did for the Nats. Ah, BP, insightful and predictable both.
Anyone who saw the humiliation in Delwyn Young's at-bat after the home run wouldn't be talking ownership just yet.
As a Nats fan, I am lapping this up. Great to see a detailed breakdown of what I saw last night.
Good article. I knew that Higgins was an avowed racist but hadn't known the details.
He should have taken some steroids to help him not choke. He has a clutch factor of negative infinity. That loser never won a game for Mudville in his life. He just piles up RBI after the outcome is already decided, never coming up with the big hit that changes the course of a contest.
If Casey was taking steroids, I'm embarrassed for steroids.
I'm just saying that BP's own statistics don't support a judgment of "excellent." He's had one good year (2008) and one awful year (2009), and he's been injured extensively both years.
At some point, as we know, you have to look at the performance on the field, not how strong or fleet of foot a player is. And Dukes hasn't shown much, especially if you include "not getting injured" as part of a guy's talent.
His projections for the years to come don't show him rising above a .281 TAv or a 18.4 VORP for the rest of his career, the latter because PECOTA thinks he'll continue having injury issues. I don't think that's a poor assumption. His ceiling is a slightly above-average regular. That's "excellent" now?
"Beyond any doubt, Dukes is an excellent talent heading into his age-26 season, a hitter with a spread of projections that put his 2010 performance possibilities between a base .270 with an upside trending towards .290 for TAv in the rosier scenarios."
1. How is a .270 EqA (oops, I mean TAv) "excellent" for a right fielder? Although the League Batting by Position stats on BP's website don't show TAv for some reason, Dukes' 2010 weighted mean projection (.264/.345/.445) comes in about average for a RF in the NL in 2009 (.264/.339/.442). He projects to be average, not excellent.
2. If you quote the .290 possibility, don't you also have to quote the downside (.260) possibility? He did have a .257 TAv last year. And we should remember that PECOTA also takes into account Dukes' injury history by assigning him a mere 409 PA in the weighted-mean projection. Someone has to soak up those ABs.
3. Lil' Willie Harris has a better PECOTA projection than Dukes does.
I was shocked yesterday at the news, but I'm just not seeing how Dukes' projected production is "a lot to give up."
I think you mean "I don't think it's impossible that Hill could become their third-best starter." You are qualifying your thought beyond recognition.
He sure played horrible defense in center as a National. Had absolutely no idea where the ball was going. We rarely saw his vaunted offensive potential. It would be a lot easier to put up with his various shenanigans if he had been living up to his advance billing. Best wishes to him, but as a Nats fan, I can't say I was sad to see him go.
One of the reasons I subscribe to the Prospectus is to get content on teams other than those ESPN deems worthy of coverage. Can BP's daily columnist please cast his gaze elsewhere for a few days?
If Johnson is healthy, Dunn will play in left, so a bunch of Joe\'s analysis goes out the old window:
Sounds like Dunn, Milledge, and Dukes with Johnson at first until a butterfly lands on his collarbone, breaking it and leaving him out for the season. But in the event that Johnson is playing, Dunn will apparently be patrolling the green pasture.