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Anything noteworthy about <span class="playerdef"><a href="http://www.baseballprospectus.com/player_search.php?search_name=Pedro+Gonzalez">Pedro Gonzalez</a></span> being the PTBNL in the Lucroy trade?
Needs a gif of that JP Crawford deke-slide on the inside the park grand slam.
This is your best ranking list yet.
My favorite article every year. It might be free, but it's premium stuff.
As good as Mason House is, Baron Radcliff was the steal of the draft.
Would Blayne Enlow or Asa Lacy be in your next 10?
Has <span class="playerdef"><a href="http://www.baseballprospectus.com/card/card.php?id=57781">Jaff Decker</a></span> taken the title of "Most Star Wars Name" in Baseball?
Awesome, looking forward to it. I'm guessing <span class="playerdef"><a href="http://www.baseballprospectus.com/card/card.php?id=106908">Miguelangel Sierra</a></span> and <span class="playerdef"><a href="http://www.baseballprospectus.com/card/card.php?id=108651">Fernando Tatis Jr.</a></span> are just too far away for this list?
Love those ceilings and floors. <span class="playerdef"><a href="http://www.baseballprospectus.com/card/card.php?id=108661">Matt Thaiss</a></span> sure sounds a lot better when he's not being comped to CJ Cron.
Okay, the one head-scratcher for me is <span class="playerdef"><a href="http://www.baseballprospectus.com/card/card.php?id=105321">Adonis Medina</a></span>. Nothing I've read about him suggests either the ceiling or the probability to be a top 100 guy.
Not as heavy as some other lists I've seen, fwiw.
I mean, it's not that surprising given that it was the only Talking Heads song they referenced, despite it being kinda the theme of the whole series. I'll take it, but there were a lot of missed opportunities for more Talking Heads references.
One Q - <span class="playerdef"><a href="http://www.baseballprospectus.com/card/card.php?id=105650">Trey Cabbage</a></span>: Man or Vegetable?
What happened to <span class="playerdef"><a href="http://www.baseballprospectus.com/card/card.php?id=105591">Braden Bishop</a></span>? Still in A ball but had a decent if unexciting year statistically.
Love this retrospective process stuff.
Agreed. Great stuff, Mau
Heh, I should've known all these guys would be owned in my 20 team 15 man farm league. At least I own one of them (Ortiz)
I grumbled about this trade at first. My biggest issue is how much risk there is that Pomeranz doesn't provide the help they need in 2016. I feel like I'd want a bit more security if I was trading so much upside in Espinoza, but as Ben pointed out, that kind of pitcher either isn't on the market or would cost one of their top bats plus Espinosa.
I'll reluctantly concede that it was the right move for them to make but still joke that Dombrowski to the Sox was the best thing to happen to San Diego since <span class="playerdef"><a href="http://www.baseballprospectus.com/player_search.php?search_name=Tony+Gwynn">Tony Gwynn</a></span>.
Been reading these for a while and am just now wondering if they're listed in any particular order? If not, any chance they could be put in order of level?
This is now my favorite annual article.
That means you have to do it every year now.
For a second I thought "Skylyn Goodenow" was some relief pitcher I'd never heard of.
I'm really looking forward to Moncada and Benintendi getting promoted to AA. Portland is a bit of a prospect wasteland right now. I did get to see Reading when they came to town though.
Fantasy article of the year.
Nm, that reads oddly, Carpenter & Sano are bunched but it's referring to Seager's age.
Surprised it hasn't been mentioned yet that Carpenter is more than two years older than Sano. Sano turns 23 in May, Carpenter turns 31 in November.
The barely painted over snark is part of why I stay. Ranking 50 of anything gets really boring without a little character, and these guys have at least a little.
I do feel like a few more (or all) of these names could be summarized with 90s music videos though.
Great article title.
Perfect timing. I had just started a doc to compile prospect names ahead of a 2015 signee+farm expansion draft. A link to this goes straight to the top of that doc.
Since this list is dominated by 1B/OF, think you could do a positional breakdown on <span class="statdef"><a href="http://www.baseballprospectus.com/glossary/index.php?search=OBP" onmouseover="doTooltip(event, jpfl_getStat('OBP'))" onmouseout="hideTip()">OBP</span></a> in a follow up column?
Thanks for this Mike! This is just the sort of thing I commented about wanting to know on a previous article.
I find it interesting that you don't use projections as a baseline, but I understand why. When I've gone to do my own player evals based on projections I've always noticed players that the systems were very optimistic on (Like Souza last year). Those ones are easy to identify and adjust for but the subtle things like a few runs here or a couple <span class="statdef"><a href="http://www.baseballprospectus.com/glossary/index.php?search=SB" onmouseover="doTooltip(event, jpfl_getStat('SB'))" onmouseout="hideTip()">SB</span></a> there can skew values too.
This process does seem to lean heavily on your knowledge and experience with player valuations. It's much easier for you to look at a stat line and say "That's a __ dollar player." For someone who doesn't go so deep in player evaluations, there's value in seeing how a projection translates to a dollar value. I doubt many fantasy players, even experts, can go through putting numbers on every player and come out within $100+/- of $3,120.
I've thought about injecting some range of outcome/safety in my values/rankings. I feel like projections trend very close to a player's average past production. That average value can trick you into thinking you are getting, say, $15 for a player when really you're paying for a 50/50 shot at $5 or $25 player. That's kind of an extreme hypothetical but we do see guys like that, usually because of injuries (like Tanaka last year) or potential for playing time (<span class="playerdef"><a href="http://www.baseballprospectus.com/card/card.php?id=34484">Rajai Davis</a></span> every year).
Thanks again, this kind of process-oriented content is what I really like to chew on this time of year.
These are valuable articles, even if they don't generate a lot of discussion. This stuff is how you get an edge on owners who don't pay attention to anything but big FA signings in the off season.
Thanks, I think that's exactly what I was looking for. I wasn't really thinking about auctions then (neither of my main baseball leagues are auctions) so I missed it then.
Thanks, I'll dig into those. I wasn't asking for that stuff in a comment response, but it is kind of the wrong season for a draft prep article. I've just been thinking a lot about player valuation recently while doing hockey draft prep work in September.
Great stuff, Mike. I'd love to hear more about how you do your player valuations. Without getting too specific and giving away all your secrets, I'm interested in how you weigh and adjust things like position, injury risk, range of outcomes, etc. into your calcs beyond the base projections. Do you rely on a single projection or a composite? Do you take those projections at face value or do you adjust them manually/subjectively?
Also, expert leagues tend to bid pretty conservatively, while less experienced owners tend to bid more aggressively on top players (The "kid in a candy shop" effect) skewing prices. How would you adjust for this effect in your prep or in the draft?
Congrats to both of you. I remember loving your draft, especially the Arrieta-Cole-deGrom trio.
I also remember taking your confidence in Blackmon to heart as I drafted him in both of my leagues this year. He was in the MVP running for my TINO Listener League-winning team too, though I think <span class="playerdef"><a href="http://www.baseballprospectus.com/player_search.php?search_name=Matt+Carpenter">Matt Carpenter</a></span> beat him out with a monster run in our playoffs.
Thanks for another season of top-notch fantasy advice. FFF (and TINO) are the reasons I got into a deeper league this year. Expert leagues were too deep for the FAAB updates to apply to my keeper league, except for the closer spec. It's great to see you guys take down multiple expert leagues this year!
Congrats Mike. Been listening to the podcast all year and I remember things were looking bleak for you in late May. I'm more of a fan of these postmortems than most. I especially like dissecting how an auction strategy worked out.
I'm not in any auction baseball leagues, but I applied a lot of what you've talked about regarding player valuation and auction dynamics to a fairly serious Hockey league I joined this year.
I tried DFS after making the minimum deposit to get a year of BP Premium in March. I made it about 6 weeks on $10 playing mostly $1 triple-ups with the odd GPP. I think I did pretty well to last that long entering a line up almost every day.
My conclusion was that it was too high-variance for knowledge/skill to really come into play without a huge sample (and thus huge investment).
Maybe weekly rosters would work better, which is more akin to what Fantasy Football really is.
I think <span class="playerdef"><a href="http://www.baseballprospectus.com/card/card.php?id=1250">Joaquin Benoit</a></span> needs his own award for having been drafted as a closer then losing the job through no fault of his own.
This is fantastic.
"<span class="playerdef"><a href="http://www.baseballprospectus.com/card/card.php?id=102745">Dominic Smith</a></span> finally reached double-digit home runs, but unfortunately that’s a career total and it took him four years" Ahahaha. BP is the best today.
Best mock draft of the season.