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Thank you for the kind words, everyone.
Yes, that's a good one. The inability to throw quality strikes -- or even strikes in some starts -- has been baffling.
Great line. Didn't see it in the boxes I was scouring. He's been sensational lately.
I am not terribly familiar with the player, but I will do my best to get a report for ya!
Reports I've heard were plus slider and change that flashes above-average, though mostly average. Throwing everything for strikes.
Getting on base 50 percent of the time is a good day, my favorite fan.
Whatever I can do to entertain.
And I like you. There were several other guys I thought of, but Cease just made too much sense.
I've mentioned him a lot. I try and spread things out on these. Unless <span class="playerdef"><a href="http://www.baseballprospectus.com/card/card.php?id=102745">Dominic Smith</a></span> does something.
I think he could help? I have serious doubts about whether or not he will get a chance, though. Cleveland is very cautious with this kinda stuff.
It's a bit problematic. It puts a lot of pressure on the power, but fortunately, Bradley has plenty of it.
For sure. You could argue he's their best prospect in the system right now.
I should say that I prefer Reyes offensive upside to Cisco. When you put the defense and position value together, Cisco is probably the better player.
Wouldn't shock me if he was up again soon. And sorry, Reed's line finished after deadline.
I mean, to be fair, I spelled Rob right.
I've featured Renfroe in PLENTY of MLUs.
De Leon finished pitching well after our deadline. He was sensational, though.
Thank you for reading. Gallo I thought about; I just think they're gonna find a way to get that bat in the lineup sooner or later. I might be a fool or biased.
Buxton I think could still get a hefty price tag. Some luster gone, certainly, but he's still one of the most talented young outfielders I've ever seen.
Great question. I mean, it could be a situational thing the Red Sox want him to work on, but I kinda doubt it. That's a head scratching situation, for sure.
I've never prescribed to TINSTAAP and I'm not trying to spin a thing.
Having a heck of a year. He's one of the best first base prospects in baseball.
Tapia much higher hit tool for me, and I'm a little skeptical of the power surge for Dahl. Good prospect, just skeptical. Have been for a long time. It should be noted that I'm not all that bright.
Same. For sure.
Maybe a small amount, but not a ton for me. You have to keep in mind just how raw this young man was, it was borderline aggressive to send him to Low-A last year. Maybe I'm biased because I've been a fan for a while, but I don't see how you don't call this year a tremendous success.
You can't see me but I'm clapping.
Glad you enjoyed it. It was a hoot and a holler to write it.
Without question Trout was helped with professional instruction, and I'm by no means suggesting that he missed out by going to school. I just thought it'd be fun to see what his legacy might be if he went this route.
Pint probably passes Lambert, but, I'd like to see him throw a pitch professionally before saying that.
See you in court.
Really didn't like the picks. Two reaches, and very little upside. Thought they did a little better on day three, but not enough to justify the reach on Sanchez and really on QUantrill, IMO.
Thanks, man. And it's another knife in the chest, but I'll survive. I'll survive :)
Glad you're enjoying it! Fun to do.
He's eligible, he's just not a player who will likely go in the first ten rounds.
Robbins would be in that next tier. If he played any other position, I think he'd be a top 100 guy. There's an above-average hit tool here, and he's not completely devoid of power. Because he's limited athletically to first base, however, it just puts way too much pressure on that hit tool, and I'm not quite sure if he's up to the challenge. Many in the industry disagree.
I hear ya. He definitely has some three true outcome to him.
You are entitled to your opinion, but I don't agree at all on his instincts in the outfield, but I certainly agree with the hitting the snot out of the ball portion!
Smith is interesting. He's a much better defender than both, and he's shown some feel for hitting. Even with a complete lack of raw power, he's still got a chance to be a regular because of the arm and glove.
And the odds of him sticking are low. I guess what I mean is, we've seen worse defensive profiles than Collins stick at catcher. It's an uphill battle, but there's at least a chance, and if he has to move to first, it's still a pretty good bat.
Collins has no where near the power or arm strength. They're not similar players at all other than hitting left handed and playing baseball.
And it's certainly not a bad/uneducated one. I just prefer Ray's floor at this point, and many of those walks are due to the competition just flat out not pitching to him. It's better than giving up at bats, but, they're a smidgen misleading. MUCH of the industry agrees with you, however.
At their maximum value, I think you're looking at Ray being a 20/40 player if everything goes right, with Lewis being a 30/15 guy, something like that. Both valuable, for sure.
There's ZERO proof that is the reason he got back on track, but if that's what you want to think, that's what you want to think.
I think that's one of the teams a team like San Diego has to worry about, but yeah, ultimately I think he does.
Yeah, I think so. Maybe not Pint, but someone like Moniak, Ray, Puk or Perez would go up to number one, in my books. We'll have to see how they perform in pro ball and all that, but, I'd lean that way.
I'm still not 100 percent convinced he's a starter long-term because of the command and the inconsistency of the change, but, when you flash two plus-plus pitches like he does? It's not impossible. If they moved him to the pen he could be disgusting.
Hits just aren't falling for McMahon right now, but no reason to be too concerned. I only say "too" because it'd be nice to see some power, but again, it's too early to panic about a top 50 prospect starting out slow.
Just know that he went 3-for-2 in my heart.
One of several reasons to look forward to 2019.
Nope. No Bobby Dalbec. Unfortunately, he's been one of the bigger disappointments of the 2016 season.
Please and thank you.
I don't think the suspension was a big deal at all. I think people are looking for holes, because that's what we do.
I'm not the fantasy expert, but, I'd take Ray either way.
He'd make a top 75. There are those who prefer him to Collins and Thaiss, and he's much more likely to stay behind the plate than both. I don't think he approaches either's offensive upside, however, and he's not exactly a defensive stalwart.
Bregman haso a chance to be a competent defender at SS, but he'll never have the range/arm of a Correa. They'll find somewhere for him to play everyday, when that time comes.
Very solid. Command/control is always gonna be a worry, but you can live with it if he's missing bats like he has this month.
Yeah, at least a cup of coffee. How big that cup is will depend on if/when he starts taking some darn pitches.
It certainly could be, but it also breaks my rule of destroying a farm system. Washington's farm system is wrecked with that move.
I was surprised he said no, to be honest. But, I get it. It's <span class="playerdef"><a href="http://www.baseballprospectus.com/card/card.php?id=59432">Mike Trout</a></span>.
That sounds right to me.
Yep. Struggling for sure. Too early in his career to be TOO concerned, but really rough start.
Because of the cost, I give him a chance to start. I just have serious doubts about whether or not it'll happen. I really hope I'm wrong, he's a lot of fun.
Yeah, scouts don't seem too concerned, and because I'm a huge fan of groupthink, neither am I.
Really appreciate that!
Indeed. Good to see him with a (potential) breakout day.
I cringed writing it. I really did.
June 9, 2016.
I would rate both above Martinez.
Thanks. Reed is featured in the book, and he has his supporters. He's a terrific athlete, and he can really go get it in center. I just have serious doubts as to whether or not the hit or power tool can be 50. That drops him into second day territory, for me.
Sure. Nope. I think he's a better defender, but I also think he has a better hit tool, and provides more value on the bases. I'm the low man on Grichuk, so, when he becomes a six-time all-star, I'll request this article be deleted.
I do not know the exact date, but I believe his return will come sometime in June.
Never heard of him.
No. He's great. One of the best shortstop prospects in baseball. I've also included him twice already. I try and mix things up.
If you don't have pitching needs, Hill. If you do, Junior.
It's up there, that's for sure.
Don't see a regular, maybe a bench bat/DH-type. He's massive.
He's really, really, really good.
Enjoy it! They are really talented.
Yep. Solid start for him as well, absolutely.
Not sure any of the scouts I spoke with are guaranteed to see Salem, which would help explain it.
I'm not necessarily a fantasy expert but I play one on TV. I'd go with Holmes with Guerra a close second.
You're welcome for the motivation.
He'd make a top 15 for sure, and he certainly had his supporters for the top 10. Ultimately, I just don't think he's going to hit enough to be an everyday third baseman, so while I do think he will be a nice bat off the bench, that drops his value substantially.
Yeah, and it's commendable he's throwing it more, but it's a 40 pitch as often as it is a 50. There's just too much here that suggests he's a reliever to me to consider him a top 10 prospect in a good system.
The difference between a Papi and -- to a MUCH lesser extant -- Alvarez is those guys showed the plus-plus tools offensively. Vogelbach has never showed me that. This type of profile just doesn't work out very often, and if he's anything more than a bench bat, I'll be really surprised.
I'd have him in the top 15 somewhere. I don't think there's any chance he's going to be able to start, but he's not THAT far behind Edwards with his fastball/curveball combination.
Thorpe got strong consideration for the back-half of the top 10. Plus fastball, above-average change, improving command. Just a little too much risk/liked Burdi and Cabbage too much for me to put him in that range.
Have never been a huge fan of Diaz, think he's closer to organizational fodder than anything else.
Yep. As long as it doesn't hurt his flexibility, absolutely.
A little early to put him in the top 10 of a system this strong, but he's certainly talented. A chance for average or better tools across the board, plus throwing arm, a chance for above-average power when he fills out his frame. Not a lock to stick at short, but he's got a chance. Very interesting -- if volatile -- profile.
Well, you're correct that if he does have that, he should be much higher. I don't think he has that, but he's certainly an interesting prospect.
Cody? Is that you?
On a lot of lists he'd merit it, but not this one, too much depth. Good feel for the barrel, plus arm, good enough athlete to play a solid right field, and he might be able to fake it in center for a while. Lot of work to be done, but not impossible he becomes a regular in the outfield.
Verdugo and Blandino in particular.
Thank you. Fixed.
Calhoun is certainly interesting. There's a chance he has two above-average tools in his hit and power, and scouts were really impressed with his ability to make adjustments this summer. The issue is, there's really no obvious landing spot defensively. He doesn't have the quickness to stay up the middle, and he doesn't have the arm strength to handle third base or right field. That leaves either left field or first base, and that puts an awful lot of pressure on the bat. All that being said, he could be a very nice weapon off the bench, and mayyyyyyyyybe a starting second baseman if everything works out.
Well, I think you first have to credit them for being willing to put them into the system. Keep in mind that when Gallo, Brinson and Williams were entering their respective draft days, their stock had either fluctuated wildly (Gallo, Brinson) or was down (Williams). It didn't bother the Rangers, and they're reaping the benefits. Jenkins isn't near the talent of those guys listed, in my opinion, but he still absolutely could become a regular.
This is tough, because I've always been on the "low" end for Baez. That being said, I think I have to take him, if only because there's more defensive/base-running value. I think it's closer than some (Cub) fans might like it to be, but at the end of the day I value Baez overall skill set slightly more.
A lot to like here, and a guy that many believed belonged in the top 10. Approach took a substantial step forward towards the end of 2015, and the tools are here for him to be a starting corner-outfielder. There's still way too much swing and miss here for my taste, and because of the height/projectable frame, I think there is still a chance he might have to move off the outfield; you just don't see that many guys this tall stay in the grass very often. Another step forward in 2016, however, and he's a lock for the top 10, maybe even the top five.
I was a big fan of Demeritte coming out of high school, but the skills haven't translated as a professional as of yet. He has a strong throwing arm and above-average raw power, and he's also shown a willingness to get on via walk. The hit tool is well below-average with a lot of swing and miss, and he's only a so-so defender. You're probably looking at a utility infielder, at best.
Lemoine was a first-round guy on my board to begin 2015 and he was a solid value addition for the Rangers this year. He shows two plus pitches in his fastball and slider, and a usable change. There are (gulp) shoulder issues here, and he doesn't do a great job of repeating the delivery, so there's a lot of volatility here, and only a medium-high ceiling. Still, it wouldn't shock me if he became a starter at the big league level if the (gulp) shoulder issues don't make it impossible.
While not the fantasy expert that Mr. Sayre is -- even close, really -- I don't think he's going to be much of one. There's a lot of average tools here, but the things that really stand out are his ability to control the strike zone and solid defense at second base. There's a chance he's a regular who could help Texas at some point in 2017, but I don't see a guy who is in fantasy starting lineups very often.
Lakins was considered for the list. He's shown two plus pitches at times in his fastball and a hammer curve. It's just a matter of showing that stuff more frequently. If he does, he'll make this list in 2017.
Third base is possible. The bat plays anywhere, so he's still valuable if they take that route.
Excuse the extra c in that comment.
Not yet, but, another disappointing year c and you absolutely could see that happen. I liked him more as hitter out of high school.
He was 93-96 in the instructional league when finally getting healthy. That's a plus fastball, and I think he has enough arm strength to be close to plus-plus.
Was unaware that speed wasn't part of an offensive profile. I'll alert the masses.
I think he's gonna make it.
I aims to please the people.
Firmly in the top ten, I believe we had him at six before the trade.
Our nation turns its lonely eyes to you?
Just too many struggles to justify placing in the top ten.
It's not that <span class="playerdef"><a href="http://www.baseballprospectus.com/card/card.php?id=67472">Alen Hanson</a></span> isn't interesting. It's that we chose five different players to profile. Being interesting doesn't make you a great prospect. It makes you interesting.
As for why he's not here; it's simple. He's not going to play shortstop, he doesn't walk, and he strikes out too often for someone of his profile. Is there a chance he becomes a starter at second base because of the sneaky pop and speed? Of course. Does that make him one of the ten best prospects in a strong system? Not in my/our opinion.
It is a jerk, no question. That being said, it's more a case of the ten having significantly more upside than Kingham than anything else. Kingham would have made a top 15, certainly, but not enough upside to me for the top ten.
Addressed this on Twitter, but I'm very, very high on Newman, as you can probably tell from the write-up. Not that I don't like the guys listed below, they're very good. I just think Newman has a chance to be a special player.
Glad you folks liked this one.
Right, did absolutely see significant improvement. I still understand why many, many scouts have some concerns about the overall approach, but anytime you get improvement it's a good thing. How's that for an obvious statement?
Well, I get paid to write about prospects for a living so, yes. Hype much.
Oh, hindsight definitely plays a major factor. I mean, no one could have seen <span class="playerdef"><a href="http://www.baseballprospectus.com/card/card.php?id=70972">A.J. Reed</a></span> becoming THIS kind of prospect. That being said, I liked that class even without Aiken. Eye of the beholder and what not.
With those who had a major issue with it and the Asros in general? No, probably not. With the general public? Probably, but the general public is so fickle I just assume it's passed. It was a messed up situation, there's no doubt about it, but I don't think it should define the Houston front office. Not that you are saying it is.
I like him, certainly a candidate for the top 10, just preferred the upside of Santillan. Davis should be ready to go, but what you see is what you get, and what I see is a no. 5 starter.
Rick Flair GIF
Really good defender, and not bereft of offensive gifts. This is his last chance, though.
Not terribly close, because we disagree with the solid defense part.Should hit enough to justify the so-so defense, but I'm not a fan of the defensive profile. I said defense a lot.
Great question. I'd have him over Weaver, but probably below Plummer. Seventh seems safe.
Like Woodford a lot, probably would have made a top 15. Plus fastball, solid-average slider, good size. And yeah, or maybe a poor man's Littrell. They all kinda bleed together right now. It's fun.
Oddly is one way to put it, but yes, that is important to point out. The point that it could keep him from missing out on a call to St. Louis still remains, of course.
It's a tv show on TNT.They know drama.©
It's not a cliched term, it's an important part of determining the projected power of a hitter. If he/she is not ridiculously strong and/or doesn't have big bat speed, you can generate some pop by using that lower half like a lever and getting rotation. Vallot does that. Thank you for the question.
O'Hearn would have made a top dozen if we did a top dozen, more than likely. Above-average power -- maybe plus -- and he has shown a willingness to get on via walk. So much swing and miss here, however, and not a great defender at first. A big year at the higher levels in 2016 will see him jump.
He was considered for the interesting, absolutely. Chance for two 50 tools in the hit and power, but the approach just leaves an awful lot to be desired, and he was so over matched upon his promotion to High-A. 2016 will be a huge season for him.
Not a huge fan of Cuthbert. Well, Elisha yes, Chelsor not so much. Only took that grades above-average in my humble estimation is the arm, and that can only do so much. I think he's a 25th man, at best.
And Mr. Wise is not alone, and I certainly don't think this is <span class="playerdef"><a href="http://www.baseballprospectus.com/card/card.php?id=16749">Rafael Belliard</a></span> with the bat, just a few questions is all.
Oh and Mr. Wise is fired.
He'll play a premium position and there's pus-plus speed, so he can help you with stolen bases. Not a fan of the bat at all, however, so...it better be a really deep roster.
Great last name, but reliever stuff/command right now.
He would have come in No. 11 or No. 12. I like him, I just am not convinced he's a regular.
There's no doubt that they're behind and going to need a lot of things to go right if they're going to be competitive anytime soon. I think this system is a solid start, but there is a LOT of work to be done.
If it was a top 20, sure. 60 fastball, 50 to 50+ breaking ball. Needs to develop that third pitch if he's going to start, but he's certainly worth keeping an eye on.
It's a good question, maybe they wanted the full development year for him, but, I get the feeling they're just not enamored with the player. 2016 will be a big, big year for him.
Brb gonna try and think of a pun to answer this question.
Sorry, just an error while typing.
As for the age, yeah, it's a concern, no question. If he was 21 or 22, he'd be in the top six, in my humble estimation. I still am a big fan of the arm, and if he pitches well at the upper-levels in '16, he'll be a major riser.
Yes, though it's definitely a bench profile. 70 runner, above-average to plus defense all well and good, but there just isn't much offensive profile here. A poor man's <span class="playerdef"><a href="http://www.baseballprospectus.com/card/card.php?id=54187">Leonys Martin</a></span> is basically what you're looking at.
Craig said basically everything I was going to say and I'll talk to him on the side about not saying everything I was going to say.
It is certainly possible. It's just a little too hard for me to justify right now.
A lot of teams liked Zimmer in the top ten, but a few were scared off by the lack of power shown in college, and that he was a "tweener." Craig is correct, though, the Medeiros and Howard selections -- and a few others -- certainly played a major effect on his sliding.
I do, he's a smart player, and there's enough athleticism here for him to make up for it. Maybe he'll have to move at some point/they may decide someone else fits better at the position, but I don't see him moving anytime soon.
Underwent <span class="playerdef"><a href="http://www.baseballprospectus.com/card/card.php?id=23954">Tommy John</a></span> surgery, still potential for a bright future there assuming he recovers.
Could have easily included him in the "interesting" list. He can fly, and he's got an advanced approach at the plate. LOT of work to be done but he is certainly worth following.
I never got a real clear answer on this, he definitely relied more on the sinker/slider, and some said it was a development thing and some said it was a comfort issue. He needs that curve if he's going to be anything more than a backend starter, and I think we'll see it more in 2016.
Accurate, and accurate.
If we had done a top 25, Goedell would have made it, but we didn't, so he didn't. He's a nice little pickup for Philadelphia, though.
I'm pretty comfortable with my analysis, and I thank you for taking the time to read the article/appreciate the feedback.
Here's a more in-depth answer. If we would have done a top 15 for the system, Blackburn would have made it. He throws strikes, the delivery has gotten better, and he's inducing more weak contact. The stuff isn't consistent, I don't think he'll miss bats at all at the big league level, and there are concerns about his weight. To me, that's not a top 10 prospect, even in a system this weak. I see a guy who pitches as a fifth starter for a while and moves to the bullpen at some point. I/we could be wrong. I/we don't think so.
Sorry Clayton/Clayton's family-member, maybe next year.
Totally fair, but it had nothing to do with "fantasy baseball" reasons for the ranking. Crick still has a chance to be a really important part of a pitching staff. I have my doubts that Blackburn -- even with the quality command -- is more than a swing-man. There's just too little margin for error.
It can't possibly be that we didn't think he was better than the guys listed here, could it?
Before? Absolutely. Montgomery will fix that. Montgomery is really, really good.
When he was a catcher, there was a lot to like. As an outfielder, this isn't my cup of tea. I see a 40 to 45 hit tool, 55 power, and 45 defense. That can make a very nice bench bat, but the guys above him all have significantly higher ceilings and higher floors, as well. He'd make the Angel and Marlin lists, but not in a system with this much depth. Still kind of weird to say/type.
You'll still see 70s and 60s, we just haven't really had a list yet that justifies them. I don't think it's a case of modifying anything, maybe a little bit of a chance in application from person to person, but that's natural.
That's all fair, but when you compare this group to some other ones -- specifically some other groups that will be coming out shortly -- it's pretty solid. They do good work, in my/our humble estimation.
I was never a huge fan, to be honest. The industry is still high, but for me it's more guys progressing over Nunez "falling."
But those guys are also quick and have extremely athletic actions. It should be fairly obvious that Chapman doesn't possess that kind of athleticism, but if it doesn't, I'll try and be more clear about that. Either way, he's going to be a good third baseman, I think.
This is just my opinion, and we'll have some discussions of course, but this is pretty easily the worst system in baseball, and it might be the worst system I've ever seen in my time covering prospects.
Yeah, that's one thing that has obviously really hurt, they just haven't had the draft picks to accumulate talent like some other systems have had. Everything written on the executive portion helps tell more of the story, however.
We are terrible, vindictive people. Next two lists are a lot more fun, I promise. Not that these aren't fun/worth reading.
I'd love to be wrong; Cowart was a personal favorite of mine in the 2010 draft, but I just don't see it. There's so much swing-and-miss here and weak contact that I just can't buy into anything with the power. I'll happily eat crow if he becomes a serviceable backup or anything more, but right now? Really tough to imagine.
Take solace in <span class="playerdef"><a href="http://www.baseballprospectus.com/card/card.php?id=59432">Mike Trout</a></span>. He's the best prospect in baseball still, darn the rules that say he isn't.
No but seriously, this is pretty brutal.
He did. Had it been a top 15, he'd be in. Definitely a candidate for moving up quickly.
Somewhere in the middle, maybe right before Flores. Not a ton of upside but a potential competent backend hurler.
White received top ten consideration. Terrific athlete, but huge questions about the bat/arm.
Don't see anything from Paddack that suggests he's in the same class as the arms listed above.
I also forgot about Loewen/meant position player. Thanks!
I get the argument, it's just tough for me to rank a guy who will only provide 65-70 innings above starting pitchers or everyday centerfielders. I/we thought very hard about moving him ahead of Jones -- especially after Jones suspension -- but ultimately that's where we felt comfortable. It's certainly a fun debate, though.
The future potential: what we project him to end up being as a big leaguer.
Just a mix up in random order, not an 11-15. Five guys that I decided were interesting enough to include in the write up. Though one of those guys would jump up into the top 10 with today's trade!
We're working on lists now. They're coming along swimmingly and the team is doing great work. Sorry for lack of details.
Certainly wasn't a perfect effort, but I've come away with much more positive feelings than negative -- defensively, anyway.
Don't wanna spoil anything, but I think his placement will be tough, there are still fans of this guy in the industry and on this fantastic prospect team.
A poor man's version, in my opinion. But I think <span class="playerdef"><a href="http://www.baseballprospectus.com/card/card.php?id=1142">Mike Cameron</a></span> was one of the most underrated players of my generation so, a poor man's version is pretty good.
Probably, but when one hears someone call Sin City one of the best films of the century, logic sort of flies out the window.
Was surprised he wasn't mentioned, but I get that the track-record is a little concerning to some.
Yep. And it's fair, although you just mentioned eight arms that outside of Rutherford no bat compares to. Quality and quantity thing, in my/the scout's humble estimation.
I had to google that reference. Sigh.
It's a good question, one that I'm often asked.
I appreciate it.
Like most young pitchers his age, it's not consistent though. He's made improvements this year, without question. We need to see it on a more consistent basis.
Wasn't eligible. Probably would've made the top five of quite a few if so.
Devers for sure, guys like Gallo and Kepler would probably have received consideration as well. Devers would win though if we know for sure he's going to first base.
The best pure 1B prospect I can remember is <span class="playerdef"><a href="http://www.baseballprospectus.com/card/card.php?id=58692">Justin Smoak</a></span>. Whoops. It's generally a position that either guys move to, or one where the players have some offensive value but very little else. That's why Smith is my No. 1 guy.
I really appreciate that. I was a little shocked how close this one played out, but it's more fun when they're like this as compared to the runaways by Sano and Moncada.
That should be Zimmer. Though Zimemer is a pretty great name if you ask me.
Dahl and Zimemr for sure, I think Frazier's lost a little luster. It's also a loaded position, which is why no Piscotty and a few other really good prospects.
I think it's a pretty interesting comp. I personally prefer Judge by a fairly wide margin, but the industry is pretty torn. Conforto the safer offensive option, Judge the more "volatile" bat but better defensively. Both should help their clubs next year.
Appreciate you pointing out the error.
Here's a link to the video. They usually take an "if it ain't broke don't fix it" approach to these things.
It's a great question. I think they'll give him every shot to play shortstop, I just have serious questions about whether he can or not. He might be their best trade chip, for certain.
I agree with your sentiment, but I have spoken with teams who spend big bucks on the international market who would prefer a draft, as well. Maybe it's because they feel it would work like the MLB Draft where big bonus guys still fall to teams because of fear of signing, but nevertheless.
Hi, Benji. I appreciate your critique. The day I did that write up, Judge played CF for Scranton. He also was a centerfielder at Fresno State. I should have probably done a better job of explaining that he plays right field almost exclusively right now. I'll own up to it. Thanks. I hope you had a wonderful holiday.
He wasn't, I don't think he'd rank above the names mentioned if he was.
Martinez can sign with the Yankees as part of last year's class if he were to sign today. He's almost assuredly going to sign with the Dodgers or Giants, but there were some rumblings that it was possible, which is why I included them.
Good question. I would be very surprised if Jackson -- and <span class="playerdef"><a href="http://www.baseballprospectus.com/card/card.php?id=80275">Scott Boras</a></span> -- would be on board with that. But I suppose weirder things have happened.
Very valid points, and in truth, I might have been too diplomatic in that last paragraph.
It's a great question, and probably one that isn't possible to answer. He's so much more valuable as something that isn't a first baseman though that I really can't blame them for seeing what they have at the hot corner, but you are right, another lost season could be devastating.
Yeah, I think Lindor is a better "real-life" prospect than fantasy player -- though I do think Lindor can certainly help respective fantasy clubs. He just doesn't have the offensive upside of those other two names.
I don't believe he is related to Vaughn; it's not listed in his bio, anyway.
No, just a bad habit. Thank you for the catch.
That's a great question. I think it was more of a case of making sure they got White in their system -- and he was no lock to last into the third round -- while they could go BPA in the third, be that Chalmers or another prep hurler.
Nope, just a screw up on my behalf. I apologize for the error and thank you for pointing it out.
Definitely possible; what I saw was a hard breaking-ball with some tilt -- a borderline spike curveball, really -- so that could be what it is. Either way, it's an above-average breaking ball when he stays on top of it.
Yep, it probably should have been noted; I had it in an original edit but omitted it because it doesn't really speak to who he is as a baseball player. It doesn't change the fact that he was overshadowed by the plethora of talented players on a loaded Vanderbilt roster, either.
We all know that Milwaukee deserves two teams.
I wasn't a fan of that pick from the beginning, to be honest. The slider could be plus-plus but the arm slot is just too low to start, and the rest of the arsenal is only average.
It's a reach, but at least one I can justify as they're going to have to spend probably 80 percent of their allocated funds on their first three picks.
I have spoken to approximately 8,631 Cub fans on Twitter and Facebook who worry about the pitching in the Chicago system.
First, thanks for reading and for the compliment.
The idea though that you can't judge the process of a draft pick is wrong though, in my opinion. No scouts or directors I spoke with believed that Naylor was a first round talent, and the video I was given didn't look like a first round selection to me, either. Of course he could come up and become <span class="playerdef"><a href="http://www.baseballprospectus.com/card/card.php?id=31366">Prince Fielder</a></span>, but I clearly state in the article that we are talking about the process of the pick, not the result. Using that as a guideline, this was a poor selection.
Good catch, thank you.
I'm glad everyone seemed to enjoy this. I had a lot of fun doing it, though my fingers have greatly exceeded their pitch count.
<span class="playerdef"><a href="http://www.baseballprospectus.com/card/card.php?id=68520">Kris Bryant</a></span>, then Correa, then Russell. For me anyway.
I have alerted the editors, but 101 should be Ryan McKenna, OF, St. Thomas Aquinas HS (N.<span class="statdef"><a href="http://www.baseballprospectus.com/glossary/index.php?search=H" onmouseover="doTooltip(event, jpfl_getStat('H'))" onmouseout="hideTip()">H</span></a>.)
It is not, though that will certainly have some effect on where he's drafted tonight -- if at all. He probably goes in the second round either way, though.
No one with that kind of power, no. The best bets are probably Chris Shaw (65-70 raw power) on the college side and Lukan Baker (70 raw power) on the prep side, though Baker has said he will attend TCU. We'll see if he sticks to that conviction.
Oh gosh, no no no no no. But to answer your question, I'd say yes, because the top players generally have their deals done months before the July 2 date, they just can't legally announce them.
I won't lie, I was nervous about how people were going to respond to this one. I'm pleased that there have been no calls to have my fired -- yet.
Not exactly a great track record, is it? That being said, if you're asking me whether I can have the starting outfielder or the guy who may not be able to start in Fulmer, I'd rather take my chances on Cameron.
I'm sure there's one on the internet somewhere. You can find a lot of cool stuff on the internet, I'm told.
Well, I think it worked out better than it could -- and probably should -- have. Keep in mind though that this decision was made well before the "draft season" started, and on paper this class didn't look terrible. The process was bad, the result appears to be a little murkier.
I did this once on MLBDraftInsider (RIP). It was fun to write. Not as fun as it was to write this one though.
I'll say this. I appreciate you reading, and I definitely have the time for a 40 round mock draft.
But I have the time for a lot of things.
I like Bethancourt -- more than most -- but I approached this purely from a farm system view, and there's nothing in the system that suggests future catcher.
And I think that's fair in terms of Hansen moving to second base, which is why I listed him as middle-infielder rather than shortstop. It's not a system weakness to me, though.
They are not the same person, but they are names that I confuse a lot. Apologies for the error, and thank you for the notification.
I think they probably take the best prep bat on their board, and I understand that. Personally I would take Garret Whitley, but more than likely it'll be Kyle Tucker or Daz Cameron. You could do worse.
I get the concern, but 1. I think it's way too early to call Owens just a mid-rotation arm, he's a 22 year old in Triple-A, and 2. I still like some of the other arms in the system like Kopech, Johnson and -- to a lesser extent -- <span class="playerdef"><a href="http://www.baseballprospectus.com/card/card.php?id=102424">Trey Ball</a></span>. There's more there than meets the eye, in my humble estimation.
Thanks for reading. Only if the NL agrees to add the Designated Hitter.
Kidding. Should be up this week!
It's a good question. Personally, I'm not interrupting the development behind the plate unless it's an "emergency" or you're sure that he can't catch.
That being said, I'm not sure six weeks of him not catching would impede the development all that much. Ultimately I don't see Schwarber making his debut until 2016 at the earliest, but it's not out of the question he helps them this year.
When Zunino came out of Florida, he was a 50+ hit, 60 power guy in many people's mind. It's not so crazy.
No trade, thanks for pointing it out. For some reason I'm now reminded of how <span class="playerdef"><a href="http://www.baseballprospectus.com/card/card.php?id=3">Brad Ausmus</a></span> was traded to and from the Astros 133 times. Don't look that up.
Correction, McGuire turned 20 in March. Still not old for the league by any means.
I understand where you are coming from, but I think you need to keep a few things in mind.
1. The sample size is just too small to be quoting numbers, especially for a teenager in High-A -- to me anyway.
2. This isn't just a "good" defensive backstop potentially, this is a great one. In reality, all he has to be is a guy that doesn't make you wish a pitcher was up instead of him, and that makes him a regular.
Thanks for reading and the heads up. As far as Benintendi, I just think there's a lot of risk involved because of his lack of track record, and the upside doesn't quite make up for it. I'm definitely lower on him than the industry, and he's probably going in the top 10.
I don't, but I just saw that stat line so now I'll definitely ask about him!
Cole for me, just because the likelihood of him staying in the rotation is far greater.
High. I thought Zimmer was a top 10 talent coming out of the 2014 draft, and I am not surprised to see him perform well. It wouldn't shock me if he was Cleveland's top prospect in 2016, assuming Lindor graduates.
I've heard him as high as 17 and with numerous teams picking in the bottom of the first-round, so there's a great chance he ends up going early in day one. Concerns about the delivery though could see him slip into early day two.
Devil's advocate: two years of developing an inferior product is worse than picking up a superior prospect. I don't agree, I just like devil's advocate. Not the movie, though.
The Royals have $7.2 million allocated to them. They could, but I haven't heard them mentioned.
I haven't heard that specifically, but I do think that teams will take more risks this year knowing they can get a pick in a stronger class next year. There's the obvious risks with taking that strategy -- as well as the -- well -- shadiness of it, but it's feasible.
It was intended to mean there's at least a chance he can catch at the big league level.
It's a great question, one that's (somewhat) impossible to answer. I do think the Astros do a good job with player development, so; I'd "like" to think that he'd have gone through the same struggles. Of course, had he avoided the cesspool that is the Cal League he may not have had those wretched numbers in the first place. Long story short, I think there are definitely teams that develop pitching better than others, but I don't think there are loads of teams that do it better than the Astros.
With Gray? Sure. With Appel? Not really, had the Astros taken Gray, Bryant or Moran the Cubs would have taken Appel, I believe.
There were a lot of guys I had listed, but yes, Appel has not been nearly as dominant as we expected him to be coming out of Stanford. He also hasn't been as bad as the names above him, though.
I'd actually go low; he's a teenager in High-A, struggles are to be expected I think.
Not as a regular, no.
He just missed the top 75, and would have made a top 100. Stuff isn't consistent, and some concern about the arm-action as well.
As far as I know, just pitching.
Yep. He's one of the more advanced prospects in the class, but there's not much upside outside of the arm strength (both secondary offerings not close). He probably goes somewhere in the middle of day two.
If the medicals come back right it wouldn't shock me, but right now I'd certainly bet against him going in the first ten picks. I didn't feel that way a couple weeks ago, but it doesn't look good.
Certainly. Prototypical size with a mid 90s fastball and solid-average secondary pitches at times. He would have been a candidate if we went to 100 this time. We'll go to 100 next time.
I don't think so, no. I'd give him a shot at second and then move him to a corner spot if that doesn't work.
Thanks! I'm enjoying writing them.
I can't go too far into detail without betraying sources,but basically it comes down to people I've talked with not being concerned about Matuella's back and ability to come back from <span class="statdef"><a href="http://www.baseballprospectus.com/glossary/index.php?search=TJS" onmouseover="doTooltip(event, jpfl_getStat('TJS'))" onmouseout="hideTip()">TJS</span></a>, and people having loads of concerns about Aiken's elbow. I apologize if this comes off as cryptic, but that's really all I can say at this point.
Both errors have been fixed. Thank you guys for pointing them out.
Bryant did play some outfield at San Diego, mostly in right.
Happy to help out. Thanks for reading.
Because Tomas doesn't have a long swing and is direct to the ball, he is able to get through the zone quickly. He's strong enough with enough hip-rotation to compensate for this in regard's to the power tool -- particularly on pitches in the inner-half -- but the lack of bat-speed is a detriment on pitches on the outer-half and/or breaking-balls below the knees.
Not insignificant. If you wanna call 65 a cop-out grade -- not that I'm saying you are, but many do -- I understand, but to me there's value in the in-between grades. A difference of five to ten extra-base hits a season, which may seem insubstantial, but not to me.
He was 11th on this list. Unfortunately laws state that I can only go to ten.
It's a 60 for me, I just have some concerns about the overall profile.
Was never high on Vogelbach, unfortunately. Sorry to disappoint.
We should have a viewing party for the series finale.
It's an interesting theory, one that when I become ruler of the world I will fix -- and also address in a "how I'd fix the draft" article sometime soon.
Right, and now that the system has some "stability" they can afford to take a few more risks. Because they missed so often though, this was a necessary step.
Hmm, great question. If there is one, I'd say it's Rodgers. But no obvious lock like Rodon and Kolek were last year.
I think so. Boston and Chicago are the two school that make the most sense.
Thank you for reading. Hope to give you a lot more.
I think you hit the nail on the head with Hayes. Even if he's not a big power guy, I think the other tools are advanced enough to garner first-round consideration.
Lambert I think has a high floor -- particularly for a prep -- but I do wonder about the ceiling a bit. For me, Chalmers ceiling is considerably higher. I think Lambert goes in the first 120 picks though.
He's having a very nice senior season, but I'd be surprised if he went before the end of day two. Probably looking at a backup corner infielder ceiling there.
There's nothing coming out other than that Aiken's camp says he's fine. Here's hoping that's the truth.
Cadyn Grenier is a guy who probably deserves to go somewhere between the end of round two and round four. Very solid all-around player, but I think he ends up at Oregon State.
I think it's a case of the tools not carrying over just yet. He's one of the better athletes in SoCal, but that athleticism hasn't really carried over onto the diamond just yet.
He's a "gamer." A guy that probably goes somewhere between rounds 4-6 and becomes a solid utility player for a club. There just isn't a lot of upside.
Thanks! Not yet, but I will say that the 2016 Draft is much -- much -- better on paper.
Not far at all, he's definitely in this mix. Awful lot of talent/lineage that scouts love.
I really like Tapia, and believe he's one of the top 60 prospects in baseball. In hindsight, I probably should have included him in the "also considered" portion. As much as I like him, however, I feel more confident in the 10 guys listed above. That's just me, though, and that doesn't mean that I don't like Tapia.
Did I mention I like Tapia?
Thank you for the information. So many affiliates changed this year that my head...well...it hurts.
I really knocked this one out of the park, guys.
Great question, and definitely pitchers.
This is a lot of..umm...stickling? But I appreciate you guys reading!
Not every piece I do will have scouting quotes, but I personally think they add value to the pieces. I will be seeing plenty of players and offering my opinion as well, including a trip to Arizona in two weeks.
I don't have any personal video tape, but Joey Gallo is...just stupid with his power. The way scouts were salivating watching him take BP at the Futures Game was borderline hilarious. And I can't blame them.
A good example of someone I saw with raw power vs in-game power would be Mets first-round selection Michael Conforto. He'll hit tape-measure shots in batting practice, but is more of a gap-to-gap hitter. New York will likely work with him to get him more aggressive and what is now 30 in-game power could become 50 or 60 in time.
Yep. That's correct. The higher the backside the easier it is to project that they'll put on the good kind of mass.
Not at all. I've written about scouting and player-development for the past seven years for various websites -- the last three years working on the MLB Draft Blog at ESPN. I've never worked for a team, though.
Thanks for the kind words, everyone.
I would move Severino to the bullpen and fast-track the stuff, but I can understand why the Yankees would give him the opportunity to start. There are some mechanical adjustments to be made -- big ones -- but he's the only top of the rotation prospect in the system, and I can't really fault them for seeing what exactly they have in his right arm.