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chapmantime
98 comments | 24 total rating | 0.24 average rating
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Baseball Prospectus http://bbp.cx/i/75990
chapmantime
(75990)
Comment rating: 0

Pretty sure Torres is considered the better SS of the two and is expected to stay there.

 
chapmantime
(75990)
Comment rating: 0

Based on physical type and 2016 performance, I don't know that I'd preclude Torres' having decent OTF power at maturity. I don't see a swing path that rules it out.

Nov 17, 2016 10:12 AM on Games of November 16th
 
chapmantime
(75990)
Comment rating: 2

Good luck, Chris! I've read you on at least three sites, and have always enjoyed your work. I look forward to seeing where you alight.

Sep 30, 2016 5:37 AM on No Projection Left
 
chapmantime
(75990)
Comment rating: 0

Wayne Cavadi did a quick write-up of the game over at John Sickels' minorleague ball site. He pointed to the curve as an out pitch, and that pitch's development has marked a clear turning point in Kilome's season. Kilome's delivery and mound tempo are much improved, and he repeats impressively for a guy his size. Great breakout candidate for 2017.

 
chapmantime
(75990)
Comment rating: 0

Kopech is right with Cease, though I'd hope he has a strong chance to start.

 
chapmantime
(75990)
Comment rating: 0

The comments on Lowe's hit tool were questionable in the run up to the draft (mostly overblown takes on very SSS) and still are. Since shaking off his ice cold pro intro, he's hitting .397 with 10 multi-hit games in 21 and a 13:16 <span class="statdef"><a href="http://www.baseballprospectus.com/glossary/index.php?search=BB" onmouseover="doTooltip(event, jpfl_getStat('BB'))" onmouseout="hideTip()">BB</span></a>:K and all five of his homers. The approach was strong as a prep and remains so. Lowe stands an excellent chance of being one of the stars of this draft if he can improve his play at 3B.

 
chapmantime
(75990)
Comment rating: 3

<span class="playerdef"><a href="http://www.baseballprospectus.com/card/card.php?id=104824">Michael Kopech</a></span> is a must-mention, pushing Martes for PotD: 6IP 1H 0ER 1BB 10K

 
chapmantime
(75990)
Comment rating: -1

He's a 20-year-old catching prospect. How is that old for the MWL, where the average age is generally two years older than that? You should familiarize yourself with the player instead of leaning on tropes like ARL amd "repeating the league."

Jun 27, 2016 8:24 PM on Games of June 24-26
 
chapmantime
(75990)
Comment rating: 2

Talent is the biggest single factor, followed by financial implications. Price, Harper and Strasburg all go 1-1 regardless of financial implications. Even Correa, considered a signability 1-1, had the talent (and for some of us was the legit 1-1 guy anyway). Financial considerations come into play after you've decided preference based on talent and projection.

 
chapmantime
(75990)
Comment rating: 1

Great stuff as always, Chris. Your ability to crank out informed, entertaining opinion on the fly remains undiminished! p.s. How'd you like Manuel going out of his way on the broadcast to disparage Ray's feel and instincts on defense? (is it trolling if it's true?) ;)

 
chapmantime
(75990)
Comment rating: 0

How many times have you seen him this year? I've been to four games, and got reports from a half dozen others from Cards fans (predisposed to like him to say the least) who were aghast. It's not like defense isn't routinely mentioned as his most glaring flaw, with many pushing him to LF long term. You simply don't see plays of the type I saw from a player with good instincts. They don't happen at this level. CF seems like a pipe dream, but there is a chance the arm give a shot at RF. His throws had great carry and were accurate.

Jun 09, 2016 11:59 AM on Corey Ray vs. Kyle Lewis
 
chapmantime
(75990)
Comment rating: 0

Both were reasonable questions, so makes sense. Just couldn't remember the specifics. Thanks for the response, Mark.

 
chapmantime
(75990)
Comment rating: 0

I dimly remember your reservations on Meadows on your old site, Mark, but not the reason. He's always been a clear impact player for me dating back to his prep days, so what held you back?

 
chapmantime
(75990)
Comment rating: 0

Ray’s instincts are well below average, not good. In several in-person looks he made at least one major gaffe per game, including diving under and past a routine liner to LF and allowing a deep fly to glance off his glove despite beating the ball to the spot. His plus speed and arm play down, and while his drafting org will (and should) try to develop him as a CF, his overall defensive limitations qualify as shocking, and it should be no surprise if he ends up in LF. Good thing he can hit the snot out of the ball.

 
chapmantime
(75990)
Comment rating: 1

That's interesting on Lux's footwork. Nothing I've seen or heard indicates anything but high marks for his actions across the board. But then, there were folks saying <span class="playerdef"><a href="http://www.baseballprospectus.com/card/card.php?id=102559">J.P. Crawford</a></span> was a 2B in his draft year, so... What people seem to have consistently missed with Lux is his hand strength, which has belied his formerly twiggy build. The muscle he's added this year is ideal, and the last thing he needs to do is bulk up and lose any mobility. He'll be able to drive the ball thanks to his hands/wrists, and it really will come down to the usual development hurdles and facing pro pitching.

 
chapmantime
(75990)
Comment rating: 0

Giolito made reference to "bad habits" in a recent interview. One noticeable difference between last year and this is his glove on the finish. It used to end up down by his tjigh, and now he's keeping it up and tucked into his chest, as is conventional. It's cost him some tempo and feel early on, but hopefully he'll revert to form as he gains comfort.

 
chapmantime
(75990)
Comment rating: 0

I can't wait until Blake Rutherford is facing Espinoza in the majors so people can stop talking about how old they are...

 
chapmantime
(75990)
Comment rating: -2

Ha ha. Downvoted for highlighting the author's questionable characterization of Fulmer's start as slow (four of six outings good to very good). Seems about right for this group. lol

May 11, 2016 6:06 AM on Games of May 6-8
 
chapmantime
(75990)
Comment rating: 0

Also have to shout out Glasnow's opponent. <span class="playerdef"><a href="http://www.baseballprospectus.com/player_search.php?search_name=Cody+Reed">Cody Reed</a></span> jut came up short: 8IP 6H 1R/ER 0BB 8K

May 09, 2016 5:26 PM on Games of May 6-8
 
chapmantime
(75990)
Comment rating: -7

<span class="playerdef"><a href="http://www.baseballprospectus.com/card/card.php?id=70611">Carson Fulmer</a></span> 6IP 5H 2R/ER 2BB 7K Last four: 23IP 19H 8R/ER 5BB 21K with two HRA I'll assume his omission was in error. ;)

May 09, 2016 2:16 PM on Games of May 6-8
 
chapmantime
(75990)
Comment rating: -2

You know who'd make a great candidate for this? <span class="playerdef"><a href="http://www.baseballprospectus.com/card/card.php?id=103071">Francis Martes</a></span>. Even his lone good start featured a 1:2 K:<span class="statdef"><a href="http://www.baseballprospectus.com/glossary/index.php?search=BB" onmouseover="doTooltip(event, jpfl_getStat('BB'))" onmouseout="hideTip()">BB</span></a>, and he's been increasingly worse as time wears on. Or how about Giolito, who's under-achieving pretty massively? An account of what's wrong with those two would be extremely helpful as opposed to yet another retread of Fulmer's delivery issues.

 
chapmantime
(75990)
Comment rating: -1

Fulmer first two starts 7.2IP 7H 9R/ER 8BB 3K Fulmer next three starts 17IP 14H 6R/ER 3BB 14K Does this even qualify as a poor start? You couldn't find a pitcher with a run of uniformly bad outings with this sample size? Looks like a course correction to me, and ye olde bias at work when selecting your quintet of subjects. ;)

 
chapmantime
(75990)
Comment rating: 0

Reaching out to grab the leg of a defender who's several steps off the bag as you slide by is a "good faith effort?" He intentionally interfered with the defender, which is explicitly disallowed by the existing rules, much less the Utley Rule, which was also violated as the runner made no attempt to stay on the base.

 
chapmantime
(75990)
Comment rating: 0

Thanks for the Eastman comments. He's a favorite, and he reminds me a bit of how Wacha looked as a projectable freshman, though less gawky.

 
chapmantime
(75990)
Comment rating: 0

I grew up listening to Harwell. What a treasure. Spoke at my college one year, and was great in that venue too.

 
chapmantime
(75990)
Comment rating: 0

Regarding Tier 11, Pitcher A sort of looks better than Pitcher B, and I'd assert that it goes beyond appearances.

 
chapmantime
(75990)
Comment rating: 0

Rodriguez is the young impact lefty I'd tab over Owens, and I like Owens.

Feb 23, 2016 4:48 PM on Boston Red Sox
 
chapmantime
(75990)
Comment rating: -1

Nikorak over Lambert in the FWAJI? For shame, gentlemen...

 
chapmantime
(75990)
Comment rating: 3

Seriously. Is that his headshot for The Bachelor?

 
chapmantime
(75990)
Comment rating: 1

You responding to an article on prospects on a site mostly dedicated to prospects. Troll much?

 
chapmantime
(75990)
Comment rating: 2

Aiken and Nix had the same adviser, <span class="playerdef"><a href="http://www.baseballprospectus.com/player_search.php?search_name=Casey+Close">Casey Close</a></span>. Nix's deal was contingent upon Aiken's, which is not strictly allowed, so if anyone burned Nix, it was Close. Allowing one client's circumstance to derail another's is the nadir of malpractice. The Astros didn't have to assert that Aiken's UCL would snap, just that its unique configuration gave them pause. The fact that it did in fact require surgery within less than a year absolutely bolsters their concern, unless you're someone whose epistemic closure on the matter renders you unable to accept new information.

 
chapmantime
(75990)
Comment rating: 2

Think Pedroia, T01176342.

 
chapmantime
(75990)
Comment rating: 0

I'm always interested in other peoples' take on him, so I hope you get a look. If you clock the numbers, you'll see some swing and miss and not an extraordinary amount of patience, and that is borne out by observation. He's definitely a guy who can look bad early in a <span class="statdef"><a href="http://www.baseballprospectus.com/glossary/index.php?search=PA" onmouseover="doTooltip(event, jpfl_getStat('PA'))" onmouseout="hideTip()">PA</span></a> and then lace a mistake to RF. It will be interesting to see two hitters like that in the lineup at some point this season, as Peraza is sort of that guy too. Going up looking to put the ball in play, with enough barrel ability to make it work. Not as much margin for error with that profile, obviously...

 
chapmantime
(75990)
Comment rating: 0

I'm continually fascinated at how many folks aren't in the know on Suarez. I guess if you haven't seen him play, he doesn't register quite the same way. The contact ability and barrel awareness are above average, and he showed a great ability to hit the ball as pitched. He can yank it if you come inside, but is equally willing to go to the opposite field. He's a limited defender as a SS, but should have the basic ingredients to be a solid 3B.

 
chapmantime
(75990)
Comment rating: 0

Looks like <span class="playerdef"><a href="http://www.baseballprospectus.com/card/card.php?id=107172">Triston McKenzie</a></span> was the top HM, and he's the guy I'd predict will look light in retrospect. The degree to which projection impacts his profile helps excuse it, but he's young for his class and has better feel that some of the college arms above him. I think I'd take <span class="playerdef"><a href="http://www.baseballprospectus.com/card/card.php?id=106280">Peter Lambert</a></span> over Nikorak on the 2015 Prep Pitchers Drafted by Colorado list... I'm not so sure Hayes' power ceiling is as limited as many hold. He began making adjustments to his flat-ish swing plane his senior year to generate more loft, and obviously it's far more important that he can actually hit and play plus D at 3B. Per Bret's repeated mantra, a testament to depth.

 
chapmantime
(75990)
Comment rating: 1

Completely agree on Betts. That scout is insane. The kid has well above avg feel for hitting, and the power is legit. If he improves his catching and recovers from surgery without issue, there's a <span class="playerdef"><a href="http://www.baseballprospectus.com/card/card.php?id=1602">Jorge Posada</a></span> ceiling. I'm not as optimistic that Faria has much velo left in the tank. Fill out? He's already physically mature. His mechanics are maxed out as well. It reminds me of all the folks predicting that <span class="playerdef"><a href="http://www.baseballprospectus.com/card/card.php?id=68440">Zach Lee</a></span> would add heat with maturation, when he came out of high school with little physical or mechanical projection remaining. Outside of adding a pitch or improving one he currently sports, I don't see much development left. Clearly <a href="http://www.baseballprospectus.com/author/_">Al Skorupa</a> did not factor into the Whitley ranking! LOL

 
chapmantime
(75990)
Comment rating: 3

Great piece, Ezra. I've spoken with scouts who don't want to hear a word on a player they haven't seen yet, for fear it will bias them. It's spoiler alert on steroids.

Dec 04, 2015 5:30 AM on Good Scouts Look Away
 
chapmantime
(75990)
Comment rating: 0

Is a freshly minted 25 old for a player who was a Cuban signee and who is probably ready for an every day trial? You're so ageist, Brendan! lol Opinions of Diaz's defense at SS were pretty optimistic this year. He's got nowhere to play at the moment with Peralta and Carpenter in his way, but he might just be positioning himself as Peralta's heir, so I'm not sure he's necessarily done as a FT SS. Rather, it makes sense to get him reps at both SS and 3B (and perhaps 2B) so that he can back either up as needed. Given the opportunity, I could see something similar to what <span class="playerdef"><a href="http://www.baseballprospectus.com/card/card.php?id=66110">Eugenio Suarez</a></span> provided the Reds this year: adequate D, solid contact ability and above avg power for the position.

 
chapmantime
(75990)
Comment rating: 0

Glad to see you holding the line on Meadows, Chris. BPro as a group has been continuously tepid since his draft year, so you may single-handedly be saving the enterprise from being too low on him.

 
chapmantime
(75990)
Comment rating: 2

Certainly the least valuable comment, which for you is saying something!

 
chapmantime
(75990)
Comment rating: 0

No <span class="playerdef"><a href="http://www.baseballprospectus.com/card/card.php?id=36959">Rich Hill</a></span>? And yes, I was asking this question yesterday before his latest WTF gem.

Sep 26, 2015 9:27 AM on Week 26
 
chapmantime
(75990)
Comment rating: -1

Most reports I read are treating Lindor like a star, so I don't know if anyone thinks he's in over his head. While he's clearly the better defender, Bogaerts has far more raw power. At this point, I'd say the book on them comp-wise hasn't changed much at all from where it was several years ago when they were both low minors prospects.

Sep 15, 2015 11:46 AM on Xander Bogaerts
 
chapmantime
(75990)
Comment rating: 0

J.P. addresses that by also noting that Bogaerts is elite (by SS standards) in three widely used cats: Runs, <span class="statdef"><a href="http://www.baseballprospectus.com/glossary/index.php?search=RBI" onmouseover="doTooltip(event, jpfl_getStat('RBI'))" onmouseout="hideTip()">RBI</span></a>, BA/OBP. If the fantasy community is skeptical when faced with those numbers, that's on the fantasy community. Those who have scouted Bogaerts since the Sox signed him know that there is a great deal more power in there as well. Having only seen him sporadically, I can say that those looks have shown a hitter who is aggressive and who uses the whole field. While the walk rate has dropped this year, the strikeouts have even more dramatically, and it's likely that even with a BABiP correction he's probably a .280-.290 hitter. Basically he's been akin to "good" <span class="playerdef"><a href="http://www.baseballprospectus.com/card/card.php?id=57278">Starlin Castro</a></span>, with the promise of much more.

Sep 14, 2015 5:27 PM on Xander Bogaerts
 
chapmantime
(75990)
Comment rating: 0

Agreed. Far too many pundits are comfortable trying to predict which pitcher deliveries will lead to relief roles or injury. If they could do that with any legitimacy, they'd be performing analysis for a club instead of writing mock drafts. One of the most interesting things at BPro is that the author who is most qualified to make such pronouncements (<a href="http://www.baseballprospectus.com/author/doug_thorburn">Doug Thorburn</a>), almost never does. Wise man...

 
chapmantime
(75990)
Comment rating: 1

If you read the reply, he clearly understands the difference (“What is on the radar gun is there, so I guess in that way it’s not subjective at all..."), and is shading things by stating that he's less interested in the objective gun reading than the subjective task of evaluating the conditions that produced it.

 
chapmantime
(75990)
Comment rating: 2

Good luck, Jeff! This column has been must-read every morning, and has been incredibly reliable, well-crafted writing. I have no doubt you will do well wherever you are heading. Thank you.

 
chapmantime
(75990)
Comment rating: 0

Urena will need to show some pop eventually? He's a 19-year-old SS who's hit fourteen homers in the MWL and has fifteen on the season (hard to hold the FSL power dip against him). If anything, the over-the-fence power has been the most surprising aspect of his season. I've heard nothing but good reviews of his defense from first hand accounts, and I had him projected as a <span class="playerdef"><a href="http://www.baseballprospectus.com/card/card.php?id=57278">Starlin Castro</a></span> body type as a DPL-15-year-old, so not sure physique would move him off the position. The bigger worry is the deterioration of the precocious approach he's shown since his amateur days, as this year's K:<span class="statdef"><a href="http://www.baseballprospectus.com/glossary/index.php?search=BB" onmouseover="doTooltip(event, jpfl_getStat('BB'))" onmouseout="hideTip()">BB</span></a> evokes a more disturbing comparison to Mr. Castro...

 
chapmantime
(75990)
Comment rating: 0

Happened across this on a site search, and it's fun to see how things turned out. Lambert did indeed go Sandwich/2nd as I hoped (44th) and Hayes went in the 1st (32nd).

 
chapmantime
(75990)
Comment rating: 0

Thanks for the Neidert write-up, Chris. Hadn't heard anything since the draft. Sounds like the FB is more solid avg than the plus that was hoped, but might need to wait on strength gains to see if it ticks up.

Aug 24, 2015 3:12 PM on August 24, 2015
 
chapmantime
(75990)
Comment rating: 0

Not sure I agree on Bergner's delivery, and that's literally the first "possible reliever" tag I've seen thrown on him. It's an abbreviated arm circle, and he can be a little stiff out front (more flex in the landing this summer), but it's a lightning fast arm and he doesn't feature excessive effort besides some occasional whack at peak velo. I'd say the advanced feel and true three-pitch arsenal point away from relief as well. Maybe you're Nostradamus on this one, Chris, but I'm not seeing it.

 
chapmantime
(75990)
Comment rating: 0

Interesting. I had comments from two guys at ACG who thought the arms were a bit generic past the obvious (Groome, Pint, Danner, Crouse, Lawson, Gowdy, Luzardo, Whitley, etc.) but liked a lot of the bats. These events are as interesting for the diverse opinions they generate as anything.

 
chapmantime
(75990)
Comment rating: 0

That was just the latest multi-hit game in an impressive streak for Mejia. Might just have flipped a switch.

 
chapmantime
(75990)
Comment rating: 0

Bassitt's rotation-mate, <span class="playerdef"><a href="http://www.baseballprospectus.com/player_search.php?search_name=Aaron+Brooks">Aaron Brooks</a></span>, looks like a decent A.L.-only option based on his first two games. Watched him last night, and the FB was still solid avg at 91/92 in the 7th, and he locates his pitches well.

Aug 07, 2015 8:25 AM on Week 18
 
chapmantime
(75990)
Comment rating: 1

Reed had an 8.69/9 K rate in his thirteen High-A starts. Even with the dip after his Double-A promotion he's at 8.27/9 on the year. There's plenty of reason, especially if you've seen footage of his last three starts, to believe that he's beginning to coalesce. And I think we can remove the modifier potentially from the slider. It's tough. At least you didn't throw a 45 on it. ;)

 
chapmantime
(75990)
Comment rating: 0

There's also the prototypical starter build for Giolito to McCullers' more modest physique.

Jul 30, 2015 6:49 PM on July 30, 2015
 
chapmantime
(75990)
Comment rating: 0

It may be inconsistent, but your grade seems somewhat out of step with others I've seen, which are much more consensus 50/55 flashing more. I can tell you that the one he was wielding in his last start as a Royal was plus.

Jul 29, 2015 4:45 PM on The Dayton Hammer
 
chapmantime
(75990)
Comment rating: 0

That's about a full grade low on Reed's slider, Chris. That's an above avg pitch that flashes plus. The footage of his last start as a Royal was pretty stunning. Lots of swings and misses on the slider, which has a ton of depth and misses out of the zone when it's not a strike in under the hands. He's in great shape too. Really physical pitcher and his delivery is silky. I could see this guy blowing up in the next year.

Jul 28, 2015 7:03 PM on The Dayton Hammer
 
chapmantime
(75990)
Comment rating: 0

I'm impressed by the arm speed. As off balance as he was, the video really shows how potent his stuff can be. He's reminded me of <span class="playerdef"><a href="http://www.baseballprospectus.com/card/card.php?id=104805">Grant Holmes</a></span> (physically, and in terms of stuff) since I first saw video, and this only reinforced the impression.

Jul 27, 2015 4:19 PM on July 27, 2015
 
chapmantime
(75990)
Comment rating: 0

It should be mentioned that Torres has a fairly sizeable contingent of believers in the glove. It's hardly a sure thing that he'll move.

Jul 20, 2015 8:33 PM on Games of July 17-19
 
chapmantime
(75990)
Comment rating: 0

Maybe I've been following him too long (circa his DPL days) but for some reason Urena's poor K:<span class="statdef"><a href="http://www.baseballprospectus.com/glossary/index.php?search=BB" onmouseover="doTooltip(event, jpfl_getStat('BB'))" onmouseout="hideTip()">BB</span></a> worries me less than it would with another player.

 
chapmantime
(75990)
Comment rating: 1

Waaaaaaaahhhhhhhh lol

 
chapmantime
(75990)
Comment rating: 0

Bingo.

Jun 19, 2015 4:59 PM on Games of June 18, 2015
 
chapmantime
(75990)
Comment rating: 0

Makes complete sense. I'd have expected the last two weeks to have been the only realistic listings. He and McCullers are wreacking havoc on prognosticators!

Jun 04, 2015 7:15 AM on Eighth Edition, 2015
 
chapmantime
(75990)
Comment rating: 0

Haven't scrutinized past iterations, but was Gallo never on the List?

Jun 04, 2015 6:23 AM on Eighth Edition, 2015
 
chapmantime
(75990)
Comment rating: 1

<span class="playerdef"><a href="http://www.baseballprospectus.com/card/card.php?id=103743">Sean Reid-Foley</a></span> had his best start of the year: 5.2IP 1H 0R 1BB 10K. He's now struck out 24 in his last three starts (13.2 <span class="statdef"><a href="http://www.baseballprospectus.com/glossary/index.php?search=IP" onmouseover="doTooltip(event, jpfl_getStat('IP'))" onmouseout="hideTip()">IP</span></a>), while walking 8 of course.

Jun 01, 2015 10:32 AM on Games of May 29-31, 2015
 
chapmantime
(75990)
Comment rating: 0

Ditto on Chalmers. Was going to ask about that and forgot.

May 30, 2015 7:01 PM on Top 100 Draft Prospects
 
chapmantime
(75990)
Comment rating: 0

Have to note Severino's opponent was Bundy, with a nice rebound from his last outing: 4IP 2H 0R 0BB 5K.

 
chapmantime
(75990)
Comment rating: 0

The tweets from BPro colleagues are a nice enhancement to the columns, Jeff. Good stuff.

 
chapmantime
(75990)
Comment rating: 0

Since the whole debate over LV being a difficult pitching environment (or not) seems to be about Syndergaard -- were you traumatized by Thor boosters as a child -- you'd be far better off pointing to his own success there in his last two starts rather than that of an unrelated pitcher who happens to be an elite pitching prospect. Alternatively, you could just stop pointing to the SSS performance of top pitchers as proof of how a park plays, but that doesn't seem to be in the cards. ;)

 
chapmantime
(75990)
Comment rating: 0

Good stuff, Chris. Can't help getting a <span class="playerdef"><a href="http://www.baseballprospectus.com/card/card.php?id=47160">Clay Buchholz</a></span> vibe from Chalmers. Still like Lambert better than him. Yes, that's probably crazy.

Apr 22, 2015 9:09 PM on Top 75 Draft Prospects
 
chapmantime
(75990)
Comment rating: 0

That seems like a major and almost completely unsubstantiated connection, Jeff. Considering FG has Matz's <span class="statdef"><a href="http://www.baseballprospectus.com/glossary/index.php?search=FIP" onmouseover="doTooltip(event, jpfl_getStat('FIP'))" onmouseout="hideTip()">FIP</span></a> at 3.95 compared to an <span class="statdef"><a href="http://www.baseballprospectus.com/glossary/index.php?search=ERA" onmouseover="doTooltip(event, jpfl_getStat('ERA'))" onmouseout="hideTip()">ERA</span></a> of 1.69, I'd say that an assertion that HE held his opponent to one run -- as opposed to, say, his team doing so -- is injudicious. I don't disagree that Syndergaard may have been given too much slack because of his park, but citing this start as some sort of evidence of that contention is head-scratching, and the caveat is pretty much a fig leaf for me. I sincerely love your column, and looking forward to the weekend round-up tomorrow!

 
chapmantime
(75990)
Comment rating: 1

And Rua goes on the DL with an ankle sprain because Rangers.

 
chapmantime
(75990)
Comment rating: 0

Wait, so that completely bleh, non-dominant start from Matz somehow proves something about pitching in LV? Color me confused, Jeff...

 
chapmantime
(75990)
Comment rating: 0

Was really surprised not to see him mentioned. I had to go back and see if he'd pitched on a different day...

 
chapmantime
(75990)
Comment rating: 0

Not elite in college? Flat out incorrect. Steady development to a dominant Friday night starter and arguably the best college arm in a draft class with some good ones.

Apr 06, 2015 5:39 PM on Kevin Gausman
 
chapmantime
(75990)
Comment rating: 0

I like the 60/40 clarification. After all, we're talking about a guy with almost 340 minor league <span class="statdef"><a href="http://www.baseballprospectus.com/glossary/index.php?search=IP" onmouseover="doTooltip(event, jpfl_getStat('IP'))" onmouseout="hideTip()">IP</span></a> (69 of 70 appearances were starts) and eight major league starts under his belt. He's far more starter than reliever, and I'd say that 60/40 encapsulates the less optimistic evolution of the inherent reliever risk that's always been part of his profile. Completely agree on contemporary relief roles, and how inadequate they are in preparing a pitcher to start. Too often pitchers are encouraged to go full bore and to jettison pitches. That's what was frustrating about Gausman's usage. You take a guy who needs to work on his slider and put him in a role where he's almost certain to pitch to his strengths at the expense of development. To BAL's credit, they did use him for multiple innings on occasion. The days of <span class="playerdef"><a href="http://www.baseballprospectus.com/card/card.php?id=1596">Ramiro Mendoza</a></span> are gone though...

 
chapmantime
(75990)
Comment rating: 3

I enjoyed this article exactly as much as I dislike <span class="playerdef"><a href="http://www.baseballprospectus.com/player_search.php?search_name=Jack+Johnson">Jack Johnson</a></span>, which is to say a lot. No mean feat! Can't say I agree that the decision with Martinez is a bad bet, or that the transition is as fraught as you indicate, Matthew. He was developed as a starter for the entirety of his minor league career prior to his fist promotion, and has been used as a starter for stretches as a major leaguer. Unless there's reason to believe that a season and a half of usage as a reliever is that detrimental to moving back to starting -- <span class="playerdef"><a href="http://www.baseballprospectus.com/card/card.php?id=82629">Earl Weaver</a></span> might have had something to say here -- then the concern seems nebulous.

 
chapmantime
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Ditto. Heartening to know that Chris is a Mad Men fan.

 
chapmantime
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Not sure how I missed this last fall. Great article, Daron.

 
chapmantime
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Salazar does seem like he's a long term play. I actually got to see his last ST start against the Reds, and while the stuff looked as cusp as eve, he just caught a lot of white, and was punished accordingly. Michal Lorenzen looked as interesting as he did last year, and there's a bit of a Nate Eovaldi vibe with the big FB/breaker combo, nascent change, <span class="statdef"><a href="http://www.baseballprospectus.com/glossary/index.php?search=GB" onmouseover="doTooltip(event, jpfl_getStat('GB'))" onmouseout="hideTip()">GB</span></a> generation and lack of whiff.

 
chapmantime
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Thanks for the reply, Chris. I was tabbing Lambert as a floor guy too, but it's so rare to see two distinct breaking balls at his stage, and commanded to boot, that I had to bump him up. Definite sandwich/2nd potential for a team that values the polish and remaining projection. It'll be fun to see if he rises as high as I expect. Chalmers has a chance to be this draft's <span class="playerdef"><a href="http://www.baseballprospectus.com/player_search.php?search_name=Spencer+Adams">Spencer Adams</a></span>, so I think you're right on with the ceiling. The helium looks well deserved. Did Danner's 13-whiff NHSI get anyone else excited for 2017? lol

 
chapmantime
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Love the Alonzo Jones placement, and the optimism in Murray's ranking, if not in the comment. ;) Does Ke'Bryan Hayes' placement take into account the more chiseled body and his showing an ability to move away from the line drive stroke and loft the ball this spring? He's a legit 3B, so if he's adding power I think he'll garner 1st Rd consideration from at least a few teams. Also, are you on Peter Lambert much? He's come out firing 93 in games, settling in 90/91, shows two distinct and future above avg breaking balls, has that sound Coggin delivery, and projects well physically. There's a bit of a <span class="playerdef"><a href="http://www.baseballprospectus.com/card/card.php?id=104779">Jack Flaherty</a></span> vibe, which should make him a Top 50 prospect in this so-so a draft. I have him roughly in the same area as Chalmers, even with Chalmers' velo jump. Great to see you move your work from ESPN to BPro, btw. Looking forward to some great draft coverage as you add your take to that of Nick, Chris and the crew.

 
chapmantime
(75990)
Comment rating: 2

I wanna help too! Can you fix the comment where Craig typed should of instead of should've? lol

 
chapmantime
(75990)
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Considering one of those 39 guys is Aroldis Chapman...

Mar 02, 2015 2:25 PM on Relief Pitchers
 
chapmantime
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If you're going to try to unsnarl the Votto injury fish line and project him, you have to look all the way back to the 2012 knee injury. Though he played the entirety of 2013, the knee was never right, and may be linked to the 2014 quad injury. That doesn't make him easier to project, but I'd be wary of glossing over 2013's career lows without considering them a health indicator as much as a decline in ability.

Feb 10, 2015 9:57 AM on First Basemen
 
chapmantime
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" I don't see the utility in that type of approach aside from raising expectations past reasonable levels." Well, clearly you don't understand the role you're supposed to play in the fan boy adulation cycle, Nick! lol

 
chapmantime
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Way too soon to pronounce Bailey as the wrong pitcher to extend, with Cueto and Latos having equally problematic health histories and considering Bailey's stuff and ability.

 
chapmantime
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Interesting that you got that comment Jeff, as historically Almonte's change has been graded as an above avg pitch with future plus potential. Having seen it action myself, it's a beauty, with excellent arm speed and good fade. Never hurts to get an opinion that deviates from consensus, but it might be an end of season/AFL thing. And to echo the good Pastor, thanks for a great daily read. I've enjoyed it all year.

 
chapmantime
(75990)
Comment rating: 1

Love it. My daughter turns three in July and has attended five Reds games: two last year and three this. Thus far she has lasted nine every time, including a Friday night fireworks display. I'm enjoying it now as I expect her to have less patience when she's older. ;)

 
chapmantime
(75990)
Comment rating: 1

And if they come off as more equivocal, they'll be beat up for that. We're all adults here. We get to decide how much credence we lend a given report.

 
chapmantime
(75990)
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I think there could definitely be some disappointed fantasy owners if he's expected to replicate last year's success an pitch like a 2/3. I hope they're reading you...

 
chapmantime
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That was a very fruitful trip, Steffan, especially for underclass preps. I wonder if Bergner would contemplate a bid to enter the 2015 draft class, where his May birthday would have him turning 18 just a month before the draft. He, Tucker, Woodford and Rodgers are all very promising, and you're a bit ahead of other outlets with the glowing reports on the Plant duo.

Mar 30, 2014 4:34 PM on March 11, 2014
 
chapmantime
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Eovaldi and Cingrani are two guys of great interest to me, so glad to see you covering them, Doug. Completely agree that Cingrani regresses unless the development of the secs offsets the FB usage. I do have to remind that there were teams that saw him multiple times, like the Brewers, and if anything he was tougher on them after initial exposure due to better FB command to his glove side and the improvement of his breaking ball. So while I expect regression, I'm not sure how dramatic it will be.

 
chapmantime
(75990)
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Great stuff as usual, Nick. Regarding Fulmer's future role, did you happen to see him in his extended post-season appearance (5.1 IP against UofL on 6-9-13)? He was still hiting mid-90s at the end of the outing, commanding the breaking ball well, and (more crucially) showing a solid changeup. Is the reliever profile due to stuff, size, violence in the delivery, some combo of all? In that look I was pleasantly surprised by his consistency throughout the game, and he reminded me a bit of Tim Hudson, another small-ish college righty with two plus pitches. Regardless, if he is a reliever, he'll certainly be an excellent one, perhaps in the vein of Cody Allen.

Mar 27, 2014 10:13 AM on Weekend in Nashville
 
chapmantime
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I don't think that's true, but anything can happen. I'd definitely dispute "a lot closer" as a given.

 
chapmantime
(75990)
Comment rating: 2

Thing is, Gausman has the stuff to be a top five starter in baseball, a la Verlander. YMMV may vary as to whether Verlander is 'generational,' but he's in the zip code. For some reason Gaus continues to be misunderstood, from Aflac to the majors his progress has been relentless; literally every time I see him he is improved in some aspect of his game. The movement on his pitches may induce seizures in epileptics. He has all the trappings of a stopper: confident but self-reflective, baseball rat who loves talking about his craft and can do so with aplomb, handles failure in saintly fashion. I am neither his mother nor his publicist.

 
chapmantime
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It's a good piece, Craig, and Reds fans obsessed with RBI would do well to heed it. Of course, we saw where expressions of concern over BP's lopsided offensive profile got Mr. Rosencrans. Some folks don't want to see the obvious.

 
chapmantime
(75990)
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Was just getting ready to offer the same anecdotal opinion. The on-base questions are legit, and GABP plays a role in most Reds' home run totals, but the season numbers are undermined by those periods of injury and the Reds as a unit seem to have decided to steal less (Billy Hamilton reasonably excepted). This being a fantasy column, defense is only tangentially referenced, but that will obviously be a significant factor in any trade. BAL was immediately proposed as a possible landing spot, and NYY might make sense if Cano isn't re-signed.