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Certainly a possibility. One of the reasons I opted for notes instead of reports is that we're really late in the season and a few of these players are extremely gassed. I can't lie about what I saw but at the same time it's not enough information for a full report, if that makes sense.
Didn't see enough of him defensively to x him out at second but his speed makes it difficult to project a corner future for him and if he can't play second it's going to be tough sledding to play him on a National League team. So yeah, he's likely to be heavily mentioned in trade rumors.
Hands are fine, he's not instinctive out there which relates to feel for the position and he gets sloppy with his footwork. He can make it work at second but he won't be an asset defensively.
haha I will def eat these words if he pulls a Hendricks.
Ah man hate it when that happens, thanks for the heads up!
Thank you very much!
Haha, I had a feeling that someone would bring that up for one reason or another. I'll wait for him to do something on the field before I write him in one of these, no ESPNing in here!
Nicki is an interesting case for me. I want to be in, desperately and she shows flashes of brilliance but there's just too much clutter in there and she hasn't really made a banger album yet. She seems to be pulled in two opposite directions. I just want her to rap.
It would take a pretty special 2017 season from him, he's still just 19. I'll have a report on him soon.
I believe in the bell curve method which is roughly illustrated here:
70s are rare and are potential MVP candidates, so there would be roughly 16 70s (I have Bryant as a 70) and a singluar 80 (Trout) across the league (both pitchers and hitters) at any given time.
There are roughly 100 60-grade, or plus players (both pitchers and hitters) at any given time as well, or just over three per team, which seems like a lot at first but it's still a pretty rare and special designation considering how many players there are in the majors on 25 man rosters (750).
Close to zero, there will be a report out on him soon.
Not a fantasy article but thanks!
Thanks for reading!
John is a good evaluator, we talk often. Jeimer is a frequent topic of conversation because his profile is pretty contentious as you could imagine
That was probably me at BP Wrigleyville or John at Cubs Den. I've written a lot about him getting in shape and some do believe the defense is around average, but that's still going to place pressure on his bat to produce.
Bat only, it's fair enough, difference In overall profile being that Torres is the superior defender.
Apologies for the late response on this; second base is an option for DD as well. He has the hands and enough range to handle the position. You're accurate about the profile fitting better at second.
If it goes really well late 2016 is an option but I wouldn't be surprised if it was sometime in 2017. He really needs baseball reps.
He doesn't seem to pick up the ball as well from left handed pitching. Against RHP Fisher displays an ability to track the ball deep and spit on spin, from what I saw he gets more aggressive against LHP and as the stuff increases as he climbs levels I think we'll get a clearer picture of how big the gap between RHP and LHP is.
That OFP might be a little heavy on the power, I think he has years where he's in the 19-21 range and I have him more as a .260 hitter.
noted and fixed.
Absolutely. It can be subbed out for pitchability which is a skill Stephenson is lacking at present. He's still a thrower, he's not smart with his sequencing, he's not setting up hitters for later at bats, he's not doing smart things on the mound yet.
Good catch, thanks. He's in AA.
Not at all. He just got married and is going to be away this week for that reason.
Absolutely. I've heard it both ways. We had him at 5 in the write ups, I've heard the case for 55/60 which I obviously don't agree with and I've heard 40 which I think is too harsh. Thanks for reading!
We've submitted the podcast to itunes, it should be up shortly. Hopefully within a day.
In a redraft? I'd push 40-45 esp. this early in the season.
It's a tough situation for Alcantará. He was clearly struggling and he needs at bats. It's difficult to give him those at bats while the Cubs are trying to win. I was against playing Herrera over Alcantará but playing Russell over him makes sense since the Cubs do believe Russell is ready to contribute. I think it's clear the Cubs have a short term goal of making Alcantará a utility man who can contribute in different ways so I expect to see him up after some seasoning in AAA. His long term future with the team is a bit murkier.
Yes, you can never have too many good infielders, specifically you can never have too many good shortstops. When they move off the position they tend to, at the very least, be competent at other positions.
I think Russell will be a defensive asset at the keystone. He has good hands and enough range to play up the middle defensively, having him at second is a positive.
I knew you'd be on my side.
I didn't get a chance to see Barreto, you should ask <a href="http://www.baseballprospectus.com/author/tucker_blair">Tucker Blair</a> about him.
It was a great, great time. I saw a lot of players I don't normally get to lay eyes on. My trip was too short, 5 days. I left with a larger knowledge base than the one I came in with and a desire to stay longer.
As Al mentioned both players are at the upper threshold of the grading scale when it comes to speed. I've seen some unreal numbers on Gore ranging from first to third times, jail breaks and standard digs. He and Billy are the first two names that do and should come to mind when it comes to speed. Ultimately we'd have to see them both run a 60 yard dash to get a real gauge on who is faster. I'd pay money for that.
This might be a future feature
Why not make the whole list put of <span class="playerdef"><a href="http://www.baseballprospectus.com/card/card.php?id=47160">Clay Buchholz</a></span>?
I can only speak for myself here but I much prefer it feeling more like a game and less like real baseball.
For fantasy purposes yeah, it makes sense given their 5x5 skill sets.
Haha yes we can agree there. He's an interesting player, maybe is a mini Justin Upton?
Absolutely, likely doing a recap at the end of it all.
He's the only Mookie in my heart.
When it comes to Wieters I was talking about his projections for this year.
Thanks again for the kind words everyone
Thanks, I will be doing this moving forward.
Same issue as Ryan Howard, I can tell you PECOTA really does not like his fortunes.
We did not rank him, I might put together a "just missed" list with a few guys but we'll see how the rest of the rankings go.
The tiers are pulled from those pulled from Nick Shlain's rankings, I did not rank them on my own here.
He's an interesting name, I see where the growth potential can come and even if he falls victim to catcher offense variability he is very useful in fantasy. Big fan of his.
I use excel to generate the deviation numbers and to create a visual frame of reference in terms of a graph then I use photoshop to hand draw them in. One template copy it across, rinse and repeat.
Thanks for all the kind words you guys, appreciate the feedback.
I love Lucroy but it's just too tough to pass up on the power+avg skillset Posey brings to the table. I still go Posey at one and Lucroy at two.
It's my second favorite behind Lucroy.
You know this is something I can do in graph form. Very much understand volatility concerns you raise and will address them in my coverage.
I think he's a high 5 realistic player and while the upside isn't as high as Almora's the risk is lower with Alcántara. Almora still has a long path to the majors in front of him while Alcántara is already producing at the major league level.
Probably not, but I do think MLB resume does have to be taken into account when compiling these lists and Castro has a fairly impressive one. Coupled with the adjustments that he made last year in the batter's box I think that warrants consideration over Bryant and Russell for now.
He has good receiving skills but his arm is below average for the position and limits his catcher profile. That's an interesting question, they have a few good catchers that I saw at Low A that don't profile as MLB assets because of the bat. I'll think on that one.
This is a year out and a lot can happen between then and now but taking stock of the system and projecting it out some (with major league growth assets taken into account) I think Blackburn is more of a Factor On The Farm type for me. Useful MLB arm if he makes it, but the upside is limited.
Underwood has a lot to like, very quick arm whip and when the curve ball does show up it's a hammer. I would like to see him take the next step forward in terms of consistency with his release point and finding the curve more consistently. Fastball command is the big thing with Underwood.
I was definitely in on Jen-Ho Tseng after a solid showing at Low-A, the stuff is polished and his command is on. He knows how to pitch as well so it's an attractive package but as Nick said it's one that lacks much projection. He's close to maxed out physically so it's not in the cards for him to gain a few MPH. I do think his growth comes with learning a new pitch but even then it's tough to find room for him in a system like this. I'm a big fan of Tseng's but I understand his omission here.
He's looked very good at the AFL showcasing the stuff that makes him an enticing arm in the system, but as you noted it's not about the stuff with Edwards and it's definitely about whether he can hold up to a starter's workload given his frame and his shoulder issues.
No I think he's a major leaguer. There's risk in the game and I think he has a slow dev path but he attacks the ball and he showed power to all fields in the AFL.
Thin lineup IMO
My favorite Hawk name is Rico Petrocelli without a doubt who usually ends up getting at least one mention every 3 broadcasts. That's a good one you pulled.
Ha, we'll take it under advisement certainly.
I'll respond to this tonight as I think there's a valid argument to be had on both sides. Thanks for the kind words.
Yeah I submitted this the day before he slid awkwardly into home. Bad luck
Note, I submitted Castro before he got the Ankle Sprain so the line about career highs is irrelevant now.
I think Alcantara plays CF full time, he's still worth the roster spot.
Yeah it's technically an M, but it's called the inverted W for reasons I don't fully know the story behind. So it's te nomenclature I use since people will know what I mean by it.
Ahhh that kinda night. Should be fixed now.
Agree on Qualls, I think it'll be interesting to see what they do at the deadline with their relief corps. Jesse Crain's glacial recovery hurts as well.
I would agree here as well. I really like Allen long term.
Yeah that's a good point, I hate predicting Maddon moves. Thanks for the words.
It was written up in the Transaction Report linked in the first paragraph.
I'd go Cotts then Tolleson. My rule with closer candidates is that they aren't a candidate in the minors with rare exceptions.
Sorry folks, had a rather unexpected death at my other blog, I'll address these questions now.
It is submitted and will be up shortly
If both are out there those are solid pickups but I'd see if there's any interest in Joe Smith before selling Cishek.
If you can survive the lost offense I pull trigger on this deal.
Hey, sorry, missed this.
No to the first, Ricky seems like a traditionalist and it'll take a meltdown for Ramirez to get a shot.
White Sox - Both will get long looks. This bullpen is a dumpster fire.
Oh he's got a solid name. Rolls off the tongue.
Mike Yazrzemski #YazBlood
They had Jake Arrieta on the same plan. I don't think Straily is here for immediate impact to be honest and they might just be taking a flier on a guy with homer issues.
I think Bosio gets to him eventually, even if it happens in ST/2015 rather than right now.
What Jordan said below. He's got a very high floor and not much projection. Some of his pitches can grow up some and there's some rep work that he has to get in. It's very much not a bad thing
I think Alcantara gets there first.
This is the scenario I envision as well.
Could be some noise but I lean not varying approach enough. Young pitcher who has to learn some tricks. I will explore this.
Would drop Boni for EY, 16 TM is about where I think about Dyson but I have to be desperate.
Definitely worth looking into, worth more than the blurb I could provide here.
Grant Balfour is out as Rays closer
Interesting arm but I want to see him pitch before picking him up in most leagues
Addison Reed will remain closer despite his HR profile.
Neil Ramirez and Zach Putnam immediately come to mind. Joel Hanrahan too.
Why are you always trashing the Cubs and Baez?
May he stay out of my column forever more.
Not yet, don't think you can take that job away from a dude whose sporting a 38-1 K-BB ratio out of the pen. Doolittle has to struggle before I start counting Johnson among the living.
Control issues will keep him away from the job this year, needs to improve command if he wants the 9th I think.
Yep, Allen looks like The Guy
Yeah I think so
I'd probably rank Arodys ahead of Cam and Ken, but they're all long bets. It can happen but I don't think it's close quite yet.
I own both he and Cody Allen in a few leagues because I don't trust what they're doing. I have a small fear that John Axford pitches his way back into the role.
Definitely worth keeping an eye on, their carousel is so interesting.
In Queens everyone is a candidate. He's in the mix because they are really bad in the 'pen.
Outside chance, I'm not in love with him but I can swallow some bad if he's getting saves.
Not too concerned yet but he's on my worry radar. I have him. In with Addison Reed.
A few of my teams hopes so
I think Walden since it's Fredi's style. Still a big if though.
I think they might give him a warm up appearance but it's gotta be his very soon.
If Webb gets the job I'm dropping another reliever for him and waiting to see what the Sox do with Jones. They do tend to move on from relievers quickly but Jones never really had the job per se.
Oh that thing is purdy.
Sorry I was unable to get to these yesterday. Health is really the only concern I have with Lee, I think he's showcased his stuff enough and gotten the results to warrant high leverage spots.
Speculating Saves over seasons is tough though.
Two updates, the Craig Kimbrel news broke after submission. It sounds like it's just rest. David Carpenter would be the closer on just about every other team so if the Braves' injury luck goes sour again he's the guy to pick up.
Koji was out briefly but will be back for the Chicago series which starts today.
Oh I understand. He's drawing interest as relievers with a track record tend to do.
Significant? Pretty low I think. He'll get a job, dunno if he lasts to get 15-20 Svs.
I'll take the under, cheers!
Oh he got rocked. Still pulling for him.
Maybe but he's not in the org yet and he might also be a Met.
Likely Al Alburquerque, but he doesn't inspire a helluva lot of confidence.
There's always a chance, but I wouldn't bet on it quite yet.
Yep that's the mitigating factor in all of this. The term "ok" is relative though, as I think my definition and the Brewers' definition does differ. They only care that the Sv is recorded, I still think Henderson is the better arm and by that function the better option. Might be a Borowski year for K Rod.
I think it ends up being Crain in the end as I outlined in the article. They're slated to do closer by committee in the interim.
the Parnell news broke after I said next week fwiw.
I doubt Valverde sticks, they'll likely have to go to either Farnsworth (who is in Las Vegas right now) or outside the org to solve their closer issue.
I'm waiting a couple of weeks but the Brewers previous history with K Rod does concern me.
There's not too much to update on Cincy
I'm doing that on Tuesdays throughout the season. This assignment called for guys who could led the league in saves.
I like Nate Jones, and I might be in the minority there. Lindstrom has a good arm but maybe not the miss the bat stuff I'd like to see out of a closer. Dunno, that situation has all sorts of layers.
I would too. I think he and Ubaldo Jimenez will end up being really interesting watches this year to see if their mechanics are drastically different from what they were when they got "fixed"
I don't think so. There's too much buzz around him, someone will go to 14 on Ventura.
Probably some combo of De Aza - Viciedo - Some Danks sprinkled in.
Absolutely, but he's not going there because there are concerns about his production moving forward. If I had pick 4 and McCutchen was off the board I'd seriously consider Hanley.
At that point I was in between Hanley and Carlos Gonzalez but upon further review...
I would consider it. Ultimately he didn't make the list because I think I can have him on the turn for cheaper because his stock is falling in a lot of leagues. I've seen him going late and it doesn't make a whole lot of sense to me.
I would keep Rosenthal if you intend to keep a closer. I like his upside more.
I'll take Hamilton for 2014 knowing that he's a higher risk. If he gets 600 PAs though that's 70+ steals and it will win a category.
Thanks, I really wanted to get into it this year but I'm spread across too many leagues man.
I went by the book projections for these.
PECOTA is weird with saves on a few guys. I think Chapman will be fine in the Svs category and I'm going to be updating these with the online PECOTAs which work better.
As to why PECOTA thinks so lowly of him in terms of saves it could be the starter projections that are constantly placed on him.
They directly relate to those rankings.
PECOTA was pretty pessimistic about his Innings Total for this year which is why he's essentially gray and pink in K's and W's, and he didn't miss red for k's by all that much.
I've typed that so often.
Will fix all issues tonight, thanks guys. Meant to invert the values
Thanks Bobby, the intro music belongs to Bret's band and the bumper/outro belongs to YouTube's free public library.
Yes, I'm working on it now, expect it Friday.
will fix tonight, sorry about that.
I think Kemp has higher potential in terms of average at this point, and Upton has more power potential moving forward. It's close though.
That's awesome, I hope it goes well.
CARGO has been added.
I'll flip him out when I add CarGo, thanks.
CarGo will be added tonight.
Design, there are a host of guys, Aramis Ramirez is another example, that I wanted to spend time on apart from the positions. It'll all be updated at the end.
I'll add an addendum with a few players who were left off the list later in the week, there was an interesting conversation we had about guys like him and a few others and I wanted to focus on them solely.
Do what you do, bad boy.
*Much beyond 400 PAs.
Yeah in limited playing time. The Book projections weren't too keen on his ability to get past 400 PAs IIRC and they're pretty pessimistic about RBI in general. I would skew up there.
It's fixed here, thanks for catching that.
Yep that's pretty awful on my part, meant but as the conjunction and "teased" in place of "teasing.
I ranked Zobrist at 2B and so I left him off this graph.
The online PECOTA is different than the PECOTA projections I used which are from the book. In the near future I will have updated graphs to reflect this.
The relationship between the hexes tie into the player and may occasionally tie into another, but from an aesthetic perspective the relationship between the players and the tools is paramount here, everything else is simple gloss. The substance is the tools.
Mookie was such an obvious choice for me to make in the graphic. I mean c'mon, it's Mookie!
The tiers are made to mirror this list, which is not in order:
I think that's an oversimplification of what PECOTA is. Projection methods vary but all of them have one thing in common: They take past performance into account.
Is PECOTA more "pessimistic" than most? Yeah, but I would argue that it's more realistic. A few of these guys will break their mold, but on the whole I've found it to be a very reliable method to understand what a player will be in the coming year.
You're correct, injuries are a big concern for Rendon, It's pessimistic about his ability to stay on the field for the full 162.
That is accurate.
It's not a big fan of his RE Playing Time but his rate stats are ok.
I have a big crush on Jason Castro, he's my Dynasty boyfriend.
10 on the dot according to PECOTA's projections. Playing time is a factor to keep in mind here and PECOTA has him under 400 ABs next year.
That's fair, 1B will have a wider color temperature range.
It's tied into the Tiers that Mike wrote about. There are 5 star, 4 star guys etc etc. I'll make it more clear for 1B next week.
That's a good idea, I'll work on that.
BTW, if you need to enlarge the graphic the URL is as follows:
You don't need those people, you have us now.
I don't know who you are but I want to be your friend.
I can't recall anyone else ever doing "What are you drinking". Can anyone else on this site?
BOS: Joel Hanrahan at 7M acquired via trade
DET: Octavio Dotel at 3.5M acquired via FA
LA: Matt Kemp at 20M acquired via draft
worth noting all those players are injured, but yeah your point stands.
I chose to focus on the LCS rosters but I plan on making a more comprehensive graph of the full roster selection from the entire year after the World Series.