CSS Button No Image Css3Menu.com
New! Search comments:
(NOTE: Relevance, Author, and Article are not applicable for comment searches)
And - leaving out any sort of judgement of this opinion - J. Paternostro has certainly been on the low end of the <span class="playerdef"><a href="http://www.baseballprospectus.com/card/card.php?id=102745">Dominic Smith</a></span> evaluation spectrum (opposite of <span class="playerdef"><a href="http://www.baseballprospectus.com/card/card.php?id=38350">Keith Law</a></span>), pretty much where time will tell who got this specific case right.
To make up for it - from a Mets point of view - Gsellman ranks 50 spots ahead of the consensus. Will be fun to look back in a couple of years.
It's the <span class="playerdef"><a href="http://www.baseballprospectus.com/card/card.php?id=38350">Keith Law</a></span> vs. <a href="http://www.baseballprospectus.com/author/jeffrey_paternostro ">Jeffrey Paternostro</a> sweepstakes re: Smith...
Also, Jacob deGrom (age 26 as of today) and OF Juan Lagares (age 25 as of today) would seem to be valid candidates to be included in such a list if eligible.
The question is, where will the combination of possibly the deepest & highest upside pool of young pitching in MLB combined with a pretty deep group of potentially average to above average regulars but no true star caliber player in that mix lead this franchise ? And will it continue to be managed like a small market franchise in spite of the enormous revenue potential going forward ?
To be fair, Nimmo is / was a more difficult prospect to judge, not only based on his background, lack of playing HS ball as an Amateur to playing in two home parks in Brooklyn and Savannah that tend to destroy LH hitters. Then he came to spring training 2013 in much better physical shape, batted .400 over tthe first three weeks and then got the hand injury that after trying to play through it, going 1 for 27, cost him over a month and pretty zapped his bat speed for most if not all the rest of 2013. Nimmo then came to spring training of 2014 in far better physical shape, more muscular and certainly stronger. The results have been impressive so far - not only the high line drive rate / BA together with leading the minors in BB but also the fact that he has managed to massively cut down on the strikeouts in the process at the higher level.
The big question probably revolves around his power (potential). And maybe Nimmo gets selected to the Futures Game yet again in 2014 and Professor Parks receives another look in the cage. Will the bat speed look different then ?
Matt Harvey suddenly showed a "70+" slider in the majors which hadn´t been nearly as good in the minors. Had he thrown that in the minors with greater frequency, I´m sure the projection would have been different.
Likewise, the changeup was a lot better in the majors than it had been at AAA where he worked on it in early 2012.
The statement that "players develop" - for better or worse - can´t be emphasized enough.
Interesting that Flores gets the nod as the # 3 Met prospect on this list while most other outlets seem to prefer R.Montero, D.Smith, K.Plawecki and at times even B.Nimmo or A.Rosario.
The big question for Flores obviously remains his long term defensive home and whether the bat plays regardless of where that is or not...
Unfortunately, we do not have reliable velocity information about pitchers, 30, 40 or 50 years ago.
But maybe there's a relation between needing better stuff - like pitches thrown with well more velocity on AVERAGE than back in the day when the SP threw 150 pitches per start on 3-days rest - to get more athletic & muscular hitters with more bat speed out today.
How many RHSP survive today with average velocity of below 88 mph ?
Would they have survived 40 years ago ?
Harder pitches = higher risk for injury and need for more rest ?
The Duda in the outfield expirement officially ended last season.
Duda will play 1b for the Mets if Ike Davis is traded. Or he'll be a LH PH off the bench. Or he'll be at AAA with his final option. Or traded instead of Ike Davis.
But the Granderson deal has zero impact on Duda.
Nimmo had a great first three weeks of the season, then injured his left hand, got into a horrible slump for a week trying to play through it, then went on the DL for a month and has continued to struggle upon his return.
Hand injuries tend to linger and can mess up swings. And the production did drop off the instant he got injured. Coincidence ? The League learning about his weaknesses ? A flukishly hot start ?
Of course, the longer away the injury, the less likely it is the reason for his struggles.
Nimmo is barely 20, so he'd be the equivalent to a draft pick out of College next spring. 2014 will be huge for him. Is he going to be closer to Grady Sizemore or closer to Donovan Tate ?
Matt Koch has a 52-1 K-BB ratio - that's incredible.
Now, he has been hittable - but has there been a minor league pitcher with a 50-1 K-BB rate yet ?
Would you rather have this system or the Mets system ?
Looking at the top players on this list vs the top players on the Mets top 10, I'd clearly prefer the Mets Top 5.
And not sure the SD 6 to 10 is better than Mets 6 to 10 if you go report for report. Upside & likelihood of reaching it seem quite similar.
And both systems run quite deep in potential MLB talent beyond top 10 to 15.
Neither system is in the STL or TEX range for now but if the Padres are top 5, where are the Mets ?
Houston, Miami, Minnesota, Tampa Bay or Boston also don't look worse than SD.
The Mets have a ton of young pitching up & down all minor league levels.
That will ultimately make or break where this franchise is headed over the next 2 to 5 years...
The key question is:
When will the Mets realistically have their next contender ?
Probably not in 2013 with half the budget going to Bay & Santana.
But is it 2014 or 2016 ?
By 2014, with those 50 million off the books and probably 30 million available to spend in the 13/14 off - season even with Wright & Dickey extended at 35 million per year overall and a big wave of promising young pitching pretty much major league ready, enough to survive the likely attrition rate ( Harvey, Wheeler, Mejia, Familia, McHugh, Gorski, Edgin, Ramirez, Carson & Co), is contention then unrealistic ?
If no, then Wright has to stay with two weak free agent classes coming up. Dickey depends on what he is asking for and what market is willing to offer.
If you believe 2016 is the answer, then sure you trade both Wright & Dickey this winter
Just imagine how the pressure regarding the Mets is compared to this.
Owners barely clinging to their franchise.
20+ years of growing accustomed to shortterm thinking and - often ill-fated- quick fixes until 2011.
Yet, already extreme uneasiness with a rebuilding under extreme cost-cutting measures during vast parts of the fan base.
How lucky the Astros seem compared to this.
Great read - probably most insightful I´ve read from a - currently former - GM thus far. Keep up the great work. Unfortunately for BP readers, this may not last all too long if new job opportunities present themselves (and they should certainly be enhanced by outstanding articles like this one). Or are you fulltime into a new career in sports writing ?
What made Wilmer Flores drop from 4 stars post 2009 to 3 stars post 2010 after posting significantly better numbers this year and still pretty much possessing the same set of tools (very quick bat & potential there, major questions about his defense and where he eventually ends up) and still being very young (19) for a High A player ?
I understand the general line of thinking that the defense issues and the question how big his power potential really is kind of dampen enthusiasm for him. That said, could it be a case of where the longer one follows a prospect, the more boring he gets and thus the doubts start taking over for the glossy shine of being the new kid on the block even if there is significant improvement in production?
It´s actually a solid plan. Sign a solid veteran SP coming off a subpar year (Vazquez, Harden, Bedard) to a 1-year deal with a low base salary and high performance bonuses.
Keep at least one of Takahashi / Feliciano if not both.
Get Duchscherer as a versatile starter / reliever (if the hips hold up).
Get a solid veteran backup C like Varitek to provide some leadership and build a better bench.
Just to please Mets fans, Ollie Perez and Luis Castillo need to go. Orlando Hudson has always wanted to play here too supposedly, so now would be the time to give him a 1-year-contract and buy some time to let Tejada & Havens develop at AAA and AA while Daniel Murphy becomes a "super-sub" who plays every Infield position and corner outfield.
The Ollie Perez, plus maybe a 2nd tier prospect (3b Zach Lutz ?) to LAA for Kazmir plan might be interesting, assuming the Mets fully pick up the 2012 buyout. Then I´d shift Kazmir into the pen where his arm might be rejuvinated.
I do agree Pagan needs to start. He has now had one & half years of very solid play, both on defense and offense.
Of course, moving to Beltran to RF while Pagan goes to CF may be the prudent move here.
With the Mets graduating Ike Davis, Jon Niese, Jenry Mejia and Ruben Tejada this year, the upper levels of the system certainly take a hit. Not sure whether Fernando Martinez (age 21) still qualifies as a prospect.
That said, Wilmer Flores has progressed nicely. Matt Harvey was signed and has significant upside. Jeurys Familia seems to have improved significantly lately. There are several 2nd tier hitting prospects at the upper levels like Nieuwenhuis, Duda, Lutz, Evans, Justin Turner or Havens (when healthy), plus a group of promising and productive hitting prospects at the lower levels like Puello, Ceciliani, Vaughn or Aderlin Rodriguez.
While the Mets still lack a true elite prospect or two with the hype that gets people giddy, this system is in the best shape it has been in 15 years, in my opinion.
At least there now seems to be the talent base to be able to complete trades in future years without having to cripple the longterm chances of the franchise in the process.
Scott Boras also got Oliver Perez a 36 mio $ contract over three years. While he wasn´t a draft pick, I wonder whether the Mets would rather have Daniel Moskos at 2 mio $ right now ;-)
This is the deepest group of prospects that the Mets have had in several years. Probably since 2002 when Wright, Reyes and Kazmir were coming up among others.
For now, it lacks that one true elite prospect to give the system more sex-appeal. The top guys either are international prospects or June picks without a lot of pre-June draft hype. Those are the ones that usually the ones that make everyone get excited about a system - just because they´ve followed the player prior to his signing as a standout Collegian or High School phenom. That should be taken care of with the # 7 overall pick in June 2010.
Meanwhile, the general downgrading of the system due to the supposedly "clueless front office" will only end if & when the Mets start winning in 2010 or bring in a new GM.
Rooting for Omar Minaya to succeed. From what I´ve heard from a couple of scouts who have worked with him, he´s a very likeable person and - unlike some of his GM peers or his former colleague Bernazard - he doesn´t "big league" anyone but also shows respect to people who are pretty low in the chain of command.
Actually, check out the overall totals for Billingsley over the last three seasons:
2009: 196.1 IP, .244 BA, .323 OBP, .376 SLG, .699 OPS
2008: 200.2 IP, .248 BA, .321 OBP, .363 SLG, .684 OPS
2007: 147.0 IP. .241 BA, .318 OBP, .379 SLG, .696 OPS
Considering that we´re talking about a 25 1/2 year old-pitcher, that´s a very, very consistent overall line. I don´t think there are more than a handful of starting pitchers in all of Baseball with an OPS against total within .015 points of each other for three straight years.
Of course, the knock on Billingsley is the lack of "consistency" on a start to start basis. That may drive one crazy in an indvidual game. Still, in a seasonal context, this is quite an impressive track record for consistency...
Unfortunately, I´m quite sure that the Mets won´t have 35 mio $ to spend left in their budget. From what´s been written, the figure is more in the 20 to 25 mio $ range.
And for that money, the Mets won´t be able to afford either Holliday or Bay, plus Delgado or rotation help.
As for the rotation, Oliver Perez and John Maine already offer enough upside & lack of dependability, so signing yet another high risk / high reward pitcher like Sheets or Bedard for significant money is probably too dangerous - even with lots of backup options like Nieve or Niese around (who aren´t dependable either, of course).
While it´s boring, signing a Garland / Washburn / Padilla / D.Davis type to a modest contract (2-years, 14 mio $ - whoever blinks first) to give the Mets 180 boring IP of 4.25 ERA, .740 OPS against probably makes more sense. If Santana isn´t 100 % or none of Pelfrey / Maine / O.Perez takes a major step forward in 2010, even Tim Lincecum wouldn´t be enough for this team, so while hoping for progress from what´s already there, the Mets need to bring in a modern version of Steve Trachsel again.