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Great stuff. It also should be mentioned the Uehara, although always a very good reliever, had an insane year and was worth 3.6 rWAR. I don't know exactly what his projections were that year, but his pre-season 2013 comment in the BP annual concludes with: "The 38-year-old righty should remain a usable reliever as long as his splitter remains a wipeout offering," so it doesn't seem like people were expecting the phenomenon he was (especially given his age).
The 2011 Red Sox were a very unlucky team, considering that Ellsbury, Pedroia, Ortiz, and Gonzalez each had excellent seasons (and Youk was very good), and the team was a little worse than league average at run prevention. Pythag wins calculates to 94, but they won 90 and missed the playoffs on the last day. So much fluctuation for this club.
Fun piece. I love seeing things about players' day-to-day lives. Favorite quote: "Obviously, my house is very nice."
I don't think it's necessarily true that all three outs, or even any of the three outs, need to be strikeouts. Three outs on strikeouts would be the most likely/simple case, but it's certainly possible to have three outs on balls-in-play and five reach-on-strikeouts. I think these alternative combinations of strikeouts/ball-in-play outs are so unlikely that they won't add to the probability you calculated here, but they're fun to think about. I love this stuff!
Sam, this was a really beautiful piece. One of the things I look forward to most is seeing how Trout's career will progress over the next 15 years or so. He easily has room to grow, which is an exciting thought. I love your work on Effectively Wild. Perhaps my biggest fear is that you will quit the podcast! Don't do that!