CSS Button No Image Css3Menu.com

Baseball Prospectus home
  
  

Search Article Archives

Find:   

Author:    Article: 
Search Date (From):    Search Date (To):   
Sort Results by:  Relevance
 Date
Show me  Results

   Show Article Summaries

New! Search comments:      
(NOTE: Relevance, Author, and Article are not applicable for comment searches)

labrat21
134 comments | 48 total rating | 0.36 average rating
Facebook Twitter email a friend
Share comments by 'labrat21' posted at
Baseball Prospectus http://bbp.cx/i/72123
labrat21
(72123)
Comment rating: 2

So who are the players you acquired?

Aug 16, 2017 7:09 AM on Week 20
 
labrat21
(72123)
Comment rating: 0

<span class="playerdef"><a href="http://www.baseballprospectus.com/card/card.php?id=46298">Brandon Kintzler</a></span> is listed by Roster Resource as the new Nationals closer. I have no idea if that is based on new information. You might want to list Kinzler in the Nationals row of you closer grid.

Aug 01, 2017 4:03 PM on Week 18
 
labrat21
(72123)
Comment rating: 0

http://www.baseballprospectus.com/fantasy/dc/index.php?tm=LAN The BP projected playing time gives <span class="playerdef"><a href="http://www.baseballprospectus.com/card/card.php?id=100496">Chris Taylor</a></span> only 74 <span class="statdef"><a href="http://www.baseballprospectus.com/glossary/index.php?search=PA" onmouseover="doTooltip(event, jpfl_getStat('PA'))" onmouseout="hideTip()">PA</span></a> for the rest of the season. Do you get to provide any input on that number? I realize it's a tough number to guess given Taylor's role, but it seems like he deserves more playing time.

Jul 26, 2017 11:42 AM on Paying for Utilities
 
labrat21
(72123)
Comment rating: 0

Is there an easy way for BP subscribers to get the 90th percentile numbers for the players? I realize I can process one player at a time, but that's a very cumbersome way to find the over-performing players.

 
labrat21
(72123)
Comment rating: 0

Thanks for the honest evaluation. The reality is that you provide a number (bid value) for nearly all viable players. Those numbers have proven quite useful. Thanks for all your help and advice.

 
labrat21
(72123)
Comment rating: 0

I have <span class="playerdef"><a href="http://www.baseballprospectus.com/card/card.php?id=100496">Chris Taylor</a></span> in 16 team category league. Thank you very much for that. <span class="playerdef"><a href="http://www.baseballprospectus.com/card/card.php?id=50147">Danny Valencia</a></span> is available, but I'd be dropping Yuli Gurriel. What do you think?

Jun 09, 2017 4:32 PM on Week 10
 
labrat21
(72123)
Comment rating: 1

<span class="playerdef"><a href="http://www.baseballprospectus.com/card/card.php?id=56034">Starling Marte</a></span>?

Jun 01, 2017 5:21 AM on Outfield
 
labrat21
(72123)
Comment rating: 0

Once upon a time, these rankings were included in the <a href="http://www.baseballprospectus.com/fantasy/pfm/">PFM</a>. Would it be possible to do that again? It makes it much easier to tie the tiers together with other notes and information.

May 31, 2017 8:14 AM on Second Base
 
labrat21
(72123)
Comment rating: 0

CBS believes that someone else in the rotation will get skipped - or they made a mistake. Thanks for the feedback. Or pitchers are OK, but that dra/cfip looked enticing. His BB-Rate is 15.2% which is high.

Apr 21, 2017 2:45 PM on Week 4
 
labrat21
(72123)
Comment rating: 0

CBS has <span class="playerdef"><a href="http://www.baseballprospectus.com/card/card.php?id=58453">Wade Miley</a></span> pitching Tues, Sun. <span class="statdef"><a href="http://www.baseballprospectus.com/glossary/index.php?search=cFIP" onmouseover="doTooltip(event, jpfl_getStat('cFIP'))" onmouseout="hideTip()">cFIP</span></a>: 80 dra: 0.95 Would you start him?

Apr 21, 2017 12:14 PM on Week 4
 
labrat21
(72123)
Comment rating: 0

Thanks for a nice analysis of the <a href="http://www.baseballprospectus.com/fantasy/pfm/">PFM</a> and portfolio series.

 
labrat21
(72123)
Comment rating: 1

229) <span class="playerdef"><a href="http://www.baseballprospectus.com/card/card.php?id=49264">Michael Brantley</a></span>, OF

 
labrat21
(72123)
Comment rating: 4

Unless they change how these portfolio teams are evaluated in 2018, category balance does not matter. You simply need to select players who will have created value when evaluated after the season. Still I appreciate the desire to select a team that would meet normal rotisserie needs rather than maximizing your chance of winning the portfolio evaluation.

 
labrat21
(72123)
Comment rating: 0

I commented on a different portfolio that I'd like to see Pecota's choices. It sounds like you are a bit of a Pecota proxy. (<a href="http://www.baseballprospectus.com/author/mike_gianella">Mike Gianella</a> expressed a little interest in this sort of project.) If it is primarily <a href="http://www.baseballprospectus.com/fantasy/pfm/">PFM</a> based, I suppose I can do it myself.

Mar 30, 2017 3:41 PM on The Defending Champion
 
labrat21
(72123)
Comment rating: 0

Yes, I suppose handing the assignment to Pecota probably doesn't work all that well. Still Pecota + <a href="http://www.baseballprospectus.com/fantasy/pfm/">PFM</a> (1 catcher, 2 UT) would produce a spreadsheet. Perhaps much of the work could be automated.

 
labrat21
(72123)
Comment rating: 2

I enjoy these Model Portfolio pieces. Would it be possible to get Pecota's Model Portfolio? I realize that it may be difficult to explain Pecota's "reasoning", but I'd like to see the choices and look forward to next year's retrospective.

 
labrat21
(72123)
Comment rating: 0

<span class="playerdef"><a href="http://www.baseballprospectus.com/card/card.php?id=70271">Blake Snell</a></span> did not make the 300 draft list. Was that an oversight?

 
labrat21
(72123)
Comment rating: 1

I should have read more carefully.Thanks for explaining.

 
labrat21
(72123)
Comment rating: 1

""" Since 1988, the difference has widened only to .165. Yes, the teams with better bullpens have an edge, but that edge translates into one excess win for every 200 games with a lead heading into the seventh inning. """ I just don't understand the arithmetic in those sentences. Why not 33 wins every 200 games?

 
labrat21
(72123)
Comment rating: 0

He's 21 with 4 years of experience. I think we can overlook some growing pains from his adolescent years. If he was 24 or 25, your comment might make some sense.

 
labrat21
(72123)
Comment rating: 0

24 starting pitchers had mixed league bid amounts, but did not make the top 300. Some of the omissions surprised me. The list of players with bids over 1: +-------------------+--------+------+ | player | mlteam | bid | +-------------------+--------+------+ | <span class="playerdef"><a href="http://www.baseballprospectus.com/card/card.php?id=50167">Alex Cobb</a></span> | <span class="statdef"><a href="http://www.baseballprospectus.com/glossary/index.php?search=TB" onmouseover="doTooltip(event, jpfl_getStat('TB'))" onmouseout="hideTip()">TB</span></a> | 3 | | <span class="playerdef"><a href="http://www.baseballprospectus.com/card/card.php?id=49832">Ivan Nova</a></span> | PIT | 2 | | <span class="playerdef"><a href="http://www.baseballprospectus.com/card/card.php?id=47850">Junior Guerra</a></span> | MIL | 2 | | <span class="playerdef"><a href="http://www.baseballprospectus.com/card/card.php?id=70485">Joe Ross</a></span> | WAS | 2 | | <span class="playerdef"><a href="http://www.baseballprospectus.com/card/card.php?id=45529">Gio Gonzalez</a></span> | WAS | 2 | | <span class="playerdef"><a href="http://www.baseballprospectus.com/card/card.php?id=66991">Mike Foltynewicz</a></span> | ATL | 2 | +-------------------+--------+------+ (I realize that most $1 bid guys would have to be omitted. You did include <span class="playerdef"><a href="http://www.baseballprospectus.com/card/card.php?id=36564">Jason Hammel</a></span>.) Would Mike or Bret care to comment on any of these names?

Mar 16, 2017 1:52 PM on The Top 300 For 2017
 
labrat21
(72123)
Comment rating: 0

Thanks. I was still writing my regexextract expressions when I saw you had done all the work.

Mar 15, 2017 10:25 AM on The Top 300 For 2017
 
labrat21
(72123)
Comment rating: 5

This seems to suggest that <span class="statdef"><a href="http://www.baseballprospectus.com/glossary/index.php?search=DRA" onmouseover="doTooltip(event, jpfl_getStat('DRA'))" onmouseout="hideTip()">DRA</span></a> is now preferred over <span class="statdef"><a href="http://www.baseballprospectus.com/glossary/index.php?search=cFIP" onmouseover="doTooltip(event, jpfl_getStat('cFIP'))" onmouseout="hideTip()">cFIP</span></a> as a predictor. Is that true??

 
labrat21
(72123)
Comment rating: 1

I got curious about the Catcher positional adjustments. I captured the <a href="http://www.baseballprospectus.com/fantasy/pfm/">PFM</a> values for catchers using the defaults (12 team league, 2 catchers) and for no positional requirements (14 utility, 0 for the other positions). Pasting into Google docs and running the linest function resulted in 17.248 as the amount added to each catcher's hitting value as a utility guy to get his value as a catcher. (The slope multiplier was 1.009, which I presume is an artifact of rounding.) I think this approach is valid. My takeaway is that your expected value from playing a catcher at another position is probably 0 or less. Your goal in picking a catcher is just to avoid having a total sink-hole on your roster.

 
labrat21
(72123)
Comment rating: 1

I hope a BP staffer provides a definitive answer. My take is that Pecota is somewhat aware of its "error bars". The improvement number suggests the distance to the upside error bar, the collapse suggests the distance to the downside error bar. That's simply based on my attempt to make sense of the information provided. I have no inside knowledge.

 
labrat21
(72123)
Comment rating: 4

75 over THREE years.

 
labrat21
(72123)
Comment rating: 3

Does this include opportunity costs? The more value you can pack into a roster slot, the better. Consider the 3 players who are identical except for <span class="statdef"><a href="http://www.baseballprospectus.com/glossary/index.php?search=SB" onmouseover="doTooltip(event, jpfl_getStat('SB'))" onmouseout="hideTip()">SB</span></a> totals of 5, 15, 25. You are assuming a linear valuation function. The <a href="http://www.baseballprospectus.com/fantasy/pfm/">PFM</a> gets around that by using inflation as the players are picked from the pool. I get that statistically P25 + P5 = 2 * P15, but you might find that P5 is discounted enough to justify grabbing P25 as opposed to getting 2 P15's. I enjoy the article and do not mean to give you grief. Assembling a fantasy team is surprisingly difficult in a deep, competitive league.

 
labrat21
(72123)
Comment rating: 0

The <a href="http://www.baseballprospectus.com/fantasy/pfm/">PFM</a> also has User Centric Inflation. The values range from 0 (off) to 9 (very high). I've been using 2 (Low). What level do you recommend? (I'm in a head-to-head league and was already leaving SGP off.)

 
labrat21
(72123)
Comment rating: 1

Response from the peanut gallery: omit the bench slots. Use your bench for prospect speculation and/or trade bait. You will need to tweak your roster after the draft. Yes, you will probably need one or two real bench guys.

 
labrat21
(72123)
Comment rating: 2

I was also surprised. The NFBC source for these articles has Sano in the OF.

Jan 31, 2017 9:17 AM on Third Base
 
labrat21
(72123)
Comment rating: 0

Yes. I totally agree. I should have also listed your <span class="playerdef"><a href="http://www.baseballprospectus.com/player_search.php?search_name=Chris+Davis">Chris Davis</a></span> advice as very sound and useful. The decline in <span class="statdef"><a href="http://www.baseballprospectus.com/glossary/index.php?search=HR" onmouseover="doTooltip(event, jpfl_getStat('HR'))" onmouseout="hideTip()">HR</span></a> value has been so large that sluggers need to contribute at least a bit in <span class="statdef"><a href="http://www.baseballprospectus.com/glossary/index.php?search=AVG" onmouseover="doTooltip(event, jpfl_getStat('AVG'))" onmouseout="hideTip()">AVG</span></a> or SBs to have significant value. I've got Davis down with the <span class="playerdef"><a href="http://www.baseballprospectus.com/player_search.php?search_name=Chris+Carter">Chris Carter</a></span> group. I did not mean to start a debate in the comments, but so many top guys were listed.

Jan 22, 2017 4:44 PM on First Basemen
 
labrat21
(72123)
Comment rating: 0

Right. I subscribe because I value the insights and advice that I find here. Your Freeman analysis was VERY useful. """As a top 25 player, his <span class="statdef"><a href="http://www.baseballprospectus.com/glossary/index.php?search=AVG" onmouseover="doTooltip(event, jpfl_getStat('AVG'))" onmouseout="hideTip()">AVG</span></a> and <span class="statdef"><a href="http://www.baseballprospectus.com/glossary/index.php?search=HR" onmouseover="doTooltip(event, jpfl_getStat('HR'))" onmouseout="hideTip()">HR</span></a> totals could easily disappoint. As a 46 - 60 (4th round), he's a great value.""" That provides clear valuation context and the reasoning behind it. That context is missing from most of the other player notes. The red flags that garnered the most attention seemed to be: infield pop-ups, <span class="statdef"><a href="http://www.baseballprospectus.com/glossary/index.php?search=GB%25" onmouseover="doTooltip(event, jpfl_getStat('GB%'))" onmouseout="hideTip()">GB%</span></a>, K%, declining value of HR vs increased value of <span class="statdef"><a href="http://www.baseballprospectus.com/glossary/index.php?search=SB" onmouseover="doTooltip(event, jpfl_getStat('SB'))" onmouseout="hideTip()">SB</span></a>, Contact Rate, HR/FB %. Would a table of players showing their values for those stats help provide the missing context?

Jan 21, 2017 9:04 AM on First Basemen
 
labrat21
(72123)
Comment rating: 1

This kind of avoid piece is a little silly. If you push a player down the list, some other players need to bubble up. Who bubbles up ahead of Goldschmidt? Are you really recommending that we all target Votto, Cabrera, and Encarnacion? The <span class="playerdef"><a href="http://www.baseballprospectus.com/card/card.php?id=60635">Wil Myers</a></span> advice at least suggested he is a #10 1B. The ranked list from Tuesday had him ninth. That's just ahead of <span class="playerdef"><a href="http://www.baseballprospectus.com/player_search.php?search_name=Chris+Davis">Chris Davis</a></span> and <span class="playerdef"><a href="http://www.baseballprospectus.com/card/card.php?id=57988">Eric Hosmer</a></span>. Is there a useful nugget there? Is this really just suggesting "Draft Abreu before Myers!"? Every player has areas of concern. If he did well at HR/FB, can he do it again? How much will the <span class="statdef"><a href="http://www.baseballprospectus.com/glossary/index.php?search=BABIP" onmouseover="doTooltip(event, jpfl_getStat('BABIP'))" onmouseout="hideTip()">BABIP</span></a> change? Is the decreased K rate sustainable?

Jan 20, 2017 1:18 PM on First Basemen
 
labrat21
(72123)
Comment rating: 0

The player page shows: 5 years/$23,553,696 (2015-19), 2020 opti so yes, that seems much friendlier to the Mets.

 
labrat21
(72123)
Comment rating: 2

I think it is a case of too many pitchers who are out of options. The Red Sox can not fit them all on the 25 man roster. I believe Elias is also out of options and would need to be waived off the 40 man roster if they send him to the minors. Perhaps the Boston.local site should write a piece about the roster management.

 
labrat21
(72123)
Comment rating: -1

5. <span class="playerdef"><a href="http://www.baseballprospectus.com/card/card.php?id=104744">Matt Chapman</a></span>, 3B is missing his Fantasy Take!!

 
labrat21
(72123)
Comment rating: 0

Yes it does. Thanks.

Dec 07, 2016 10:43 AM on Mixed League Hitters
 
labrat21
(72123)
Comment rating: 0

I think Mike was talking about evaluating his before season bid limits / draft list. That plan should be compared against everyone else's plans. Therefore Mike only looks at players who were actually drafted or bought at auction. If no one else foresaw Villar's season, then your plan did not fail. The future is HARD to predict. Were your predictions better than the other predictions? (NOT: did you predict the future correctly?)

Dec 06, 2016 2:40 PM on Mixed League Hitters
 
labrat21
(72123)
Comment rating: 0

<span class="playerdef"><a href="http://www.baseballprospectus.com/card/card.php?id=45613">Justin Verlander</a></span> age is 33 (or rounds up to 34).

Nov 21, 2016 4:49 AM on The Landscape: ERA
 
labrat21
(72123)
Comment rating: 2

"The +/- column subtracts each player’s earnings from his salary" Just picking nits, but it is clear from the numbers that you are subtracting the salary from the earnings. Thanks for a very useful column. The insight about the drop in innings is VERY helpful. That is not obvious from looking at the scoring values. It would be great to learn how you use innings to weight pitchers when assigning $ value to <span class="statdef"><a href="http://www.baseballprospectus.com/glossary/index.php?search=ERA" onmouseover="doTooltip(event, jpfl_getStat('ERA'))" onmouseout="hideTip()">ERA</span></a> and <span class="statdef"><a href="http://www.baseballprospectus.com/glossary/index.php?search=WHIP" onmouseover="doTooltip(event, jpfl_getStat('WHIP'))" onmouseout="hideTip()">WHIP</span></a>. I hope you could address that sometime.

Nov 11, 2016 11:17 AM on AL Pitchers
 
labrat21
(72123)
Comment rating: 0

I think the comment was suggesting that "more of a must-win" is an oxymoron. Your reply seems to agree. Cleveland MUST win the Kluber starts and eke out one other win.

 
labrat21
(72123)
Comment rating: 0

Is it possible for BP subscribers to pull the different percentile projections for players without visiting each individual player page?

Aug 31, 2016 4:38 AM on How The Marlins
 
labrat21
(72123)
Comment rating: 0

I think he offered some thoughts about each "Consider" SP. The other sections would only mention interesting pitchers.

Aug 28, 2016 12:00 PM on Week 21
 
labrat21
(72123)
Comment rating: 1

I believe <span class="playerdef"><a href="http://www.baseballprospectus.com/card/card.php?id=58356">Tom Koehler</a></span> will now pitch this Sunday losing his 2 start week. (I had already picked him up for the week.)

Aug 12, 2016 5:12 AM on Week 19
 
labrat21
(72123)
Comment rating: 0

"""Minimum wage laws are only necessary if there is a monopsony (monopoly/cartel on the buying side). """ http://www.bloomberg.com/view/articles/2016-08-05/can-government-raise-wages-it-s-worth-a-try Market failures occur even without monopsony and may be more common than neo-liberal economists like to admit.

 
labrat21
(72123)
Comment rating: 0

At the last minute I decided to follow your advice. Santana just had a very good game. Thank you.

Jul 27, 2016 10:23 AM on Week 16
 
labrat21
(72123)
Comment rating: 0

I was ready to add <span class="playerdef"><a href="http://www.baseballprospectus.com/card/card.php?id=31607">Ervin Santana</a></span> in our 16 team league, but saw: cfip: 104 name: Ervin Santana dra: 4.43 dra_minus: 106 sor: 0.172 bbr: 0.067 gb: 43.4 iso: 0.147 and could not make the move. You have a better track record than I do on selecting pitchers, so ignoring your advice may be dumb. There are at least 80 SPs with a better dra_minus.

Jul 22, 2016 11:01 AM on Week 16
 
labrat21
(72123)
Comment rating: 0

I believe they wait for official paper work to get filed. You can sign up for notifications for "New Player Additions".

Jul 16, 2016 6:36 AM on 15th Edition, 2016
 
labrat21
(72123)
Comment rating: 1

Agreed. Cunningham is probably the better choice. Marte still has no regular position and has NOT been wonderful fielding in the OF. I thought Marte was worth a mention in the context of possible players from the Angels. We're panning for gold here and they both have a little bit of glitter.

Jun 16, 2016 7:28 AM on Week 11
 
labrat21
(72123)
Comment rating: 0

<span class="playerdef"><a href="http://www.baseballprospectus.com/card/card.php?id=58420">Jefry Marte</a></span> has been grabbing some playing time from Cunningham in the Angel OF.

Jun 16, 2016 5:23 AM on Week 11
 
labrat21
(72123)
Comment rating: 0

<span class="playerdef"><a href="http://www.baseballprospectus.com/player_search.php?search_name=Hector+Santiago">Hector Santiago</a></span> is listed, but not <span class="playerdef"><a href="http://www.baseballprospectus.com/card/card.php?id=58667">Matt Shoemaker</a></span>. Could you possibly have confused them in writing the list? Shoemaker has a <span class="statdef"><a href="http://www.baseballprospectus.com/glossary/index.php?search=cFIP" onmouseover="doTooltip(event, jpfl_getStat('cFIP'))" onmouseout="hideTip()">cFIP</span></a> of 89, Hector Santiago 112.

Jun 05, 2016 5:32 PM on The Updated Top 300
 
labrat21
(72123)
Comment rating: 0

For what it's worth, in my league (16 teams), <span class="playerdef"><a href="http://www.baseballprospectus.com/player_search.php?search_name=Cesar+Hernandez">Cesar Hernandez</a></span> was just dropped. All of those other names are owned. My team has <span class="playerdef"><a href="http://www.baseballprospectus.com/card/card.php?id=50609">Marwin Gonzalez</a></span>. I'd put <span class="playerdef"><a href="http://www.baseballprospectus.com/card/card.php?id=66539">Scooter Gennett</a></span> first from those names. I'm nervous about Marwin's playing time and was wondering about grabbing Cesar Hernandez despite the poor YTD numbers.

May 20, 2016 1:34 PM on Week Eight
 
labrat21
(72123)
Comment rating: 1

Meaning the SP plunks the first hitter in the first inning so his team will now get two bases if plunked.

 
labrat21
(72123)
Comment rating: 1

Doesn't that create an incentive to get the first <span class="statdef"><a href="http://www.baseballprospectus.com/glossary/index.php?search=HBP" onmouseover="doTooltip(event, jpfl_getStat('HBP'))" onmouseout="hideTip()">HBP</span></a>.

 
labrat21
(72123)
Comment rating: -1

Since you invited help: The format Team A gives up <span class="playerdef"><a href="http://www.baseballprospectus.com/card/card.php?id=100502">Carlos Correa</a></span>. Team B gives up <span class="playerdef"><a href="http://www.baseballprospectus.com/card/card.php?id=70430">Mookie Betts</a></span> and <span class="playerdef"><a href="http://www.baseballprospectus.com/player_search.php?search_name=Rougned+Odor">Rougned Odor</a></span>. is backwards. By listing the team name with the players they do NOT have, you have to "cross link" the lines to understand the trade results. When you wrote, "I do think Team B got enough talent to make up for the talent gap between Correa and Betts.", I think you really meant <span class="statdef"><a href="http://www.baseballprospectus.com/glossary/index.php?search=TEAM" onmouseover="doTooltip(event, jpfl_getStat('TEAM'))" onmouseout="hideTip()">TEAM</span></a> A got enough talent. I appreciate the analysis and content and don't mean this as a serious grumble. Switching to "Team A gets ..." would be easier on the readers, and probably easier on you.

 
labrat21
(72123)
Comment rating: 0

These were all very helpful. Thank you.

Apr 06, 2016 11:00 AM on Out On A Limb
 
labrat21
(72123)
Comment rating: 0

http://www.baseballprospectus.com/fantasy/mikegvalues.php?pos=1B&lg=M&yr=2016 Try pasting that URL into your browser's location box. That should get around any iframe issues.

Mar 25, 2016 12:38 PM on Third Edition, 2016
 
labrat21
(72123)
Comment rating: 1

back end? front end? rear end? other end? Yes, we figure it out, but explicit is easier on the readers.

Mar 22, 2016 9:37 AM on National League West
 
labrat21
(72123)
Comment rating: 0

I knew <span class="playerdef"><a href="http://www.baseballprospectus.com/card/card.php?id=40963">Jhonny Peralta</a></span> was injured and certainly did not mean to second guess your list. My league has 16 teams, but with slightly different rules. I needed to highlight players whose valuations had changed significantly and figured it was worth sharing the lists.

Mar 18, 2016 7:45 PM on The Top 300
 
labrat21
(72123)
Comment rating: 0

Notable omissions +-------------------+------+-------+ | player | dp | grade | +-------------------+------+-------+ | <span class="playerdef"><a href="http://www.baseballprospectus.com/card/card.php?id=40963">Jhonny Peralta</a></span> | 9999 | C | | <span class="playerdef"><a href="http://www.baseballprospectus.com/card/card.php?id=51988">Cameron Maybin</a></span> | 9999 | D | | <span class="playerdef"><a href="http://www.baseballprospectus.com/card/card.php?id=45398">Asdrubal Cabrera</a></span> | 9999 | D | | <span class="playerdef"><a href="http://www.baseballprospectus.com/card/card.php?id=31506">Scott Kazmir</a></span> | 9999 | D | | <span class="playerdef"><a href="http://www.baseballprospectus.com/card/card.php?id=58453">Wade Miley</a></span> | 9999 | D | | <span class="playerdef"><a href="http://www.baseballprospectus.com/card/card.php?id=60787">Hyun-Jin Ryu</a></span> | 9999 | D | | <span class="playerdef"><a href="http://www.baseballprospectus.com/card/card.php?id=70387">Javier Baez</a></span> | 9999 | D | | <span class="playerdef"><a href="http://www.baseballprospectus.com/card/card.php?id=100718">Alex Wood</a></span> | 9999 | D | | <span class="playerdef"><a href="http://www.baseballprospectus.com/card/card.php?id=51557">Yangervis Solarte</a></span> | 9999 | D | | <span class="playerdef"><a href="http://www.baseballprospectus.com/player_search.php?search_name=Jorge+Soler">Jorge Soler</a></span> | 9999 | C | | <span class="playerdef"><a href="http://www.baseballprospectus.com/card/card.php?id=99963">Jake Lamb</a></span> | 9999 | D | | <span class="playerdef"><a href="http://www.baseballprospectus.com/card/card.php?id=69578">Cory Spangenberg</a></span> | 9999 | D | | <span class="playerdef"><a href="http://www.baseballprospectus.com/card/card.php?id=100193">Devon Travis</a></span> | 9999 | D | | <span class="playerdef"><a href="http://www.baseballprospectus.com/card/card.php?id=67098">Eddie Rosario</a></span> | 9999 | D | +-------------------+------+-------+ (D = 2 star, C = 3 star) from the tiers Notable additions | <span class="playerdef"><a href="http://www.baseballprospectus.com/card/card.php?id=50297">Jarrod Dyson</a></span> | 290 | F | | <span class="playerdef"><a href="http://www.baseballprospectus.com/card/card.php?id=47939">Austin Jackson</a></span> | 237 | F | | <span class="playerdef"><a href="http://www.baseballprospectus.com/card/card.php?id=100574">Jose Berrios</a></span> | 278 | X | (F = NO star, X = prospect, but no star) I could have some errors in recording the tiers, since they're no longer in the <a href="http://www.baseballprospectus.com/fantasy/pfm/">PFM</a> for easy retrieval.

Mar 17, 2016 7:19 PM on The Top 300
 
labrat21
(72123)
Comment rating: -1

The Providence Journal recently posted a nice article about <span class="playerdef"><a href="http://www.baseballprospectus.com/card/card.php?id=55530">Daniel Bard</a></span>. http://www.providencejournal.com/sports/20160314/having-diagnosed-his-demise-daniel-bard-is-teaching-himself-to-pitch-again It provides background about his struggles and his hope that PIT is the place for getting a pitcher back on track.

 
labrat21
(72123)
Comment rating: 0

thanks very much for the update!

 
labrat21
(72123)
Comment rating: 5

30 guys got stars including 3 NYY. David Hernandez PHI (someone has to do it in PHI) JJ Hoover CIN likewise for CIN Any source of Saves should get a mention...

Mar 08, 2016 4:42 AM on Relief Pitchers
 
labrat21
(72123)
Comment rating: 0

The 5,4,3 star tiers add up to 55 pitchers by my count. Your 56 to 71 group (Maeda to <span class="playerdef"><a href="http://www.baseballprospectus.com/card/card.php?id=69172">Kyle Hendricks</a></span>) fits in very nicely as a later group to target. Our fairly deep league will roster some 110 SPs, so the minor leaguers will be slotted a bit lower in my draft list. Thanks very much for the analysis.

 
labrat21
(72123)
Comment rating: 0

Errata: <span class="playerdef"><a href="http://www.baseballprospectus.com/card/card.php?id=70399">Francisco Lindor</a></span> is not listed in Mixed SS list.

Feb 24, 2016 6:49 AM on First Edition, 2016
 
labrat21
(72123)
Comment rating: 1

In a draft, you want the best player who will NOT be available on your next pick. Even if you had the 2017 BP Annual to guide you (No Uncertainty as to value), you would still be best off using ADP and knowledge of your league's tendencies to include future round availability as part of your draft decisions. The 2016 BP Annual would have told you that AJ Polluck was a 2015 first round value. You'd have been silly to draft him that early.

Feb 19, 2016 8:09 AM on On Reaching
 
labrat21
(72123)
Comment rating: 0

You can copy and paste an HTML table into a spreadsheet and get good results, at least with Google Docs and LibreOffice (localc). I'd expect Excel to have kept up with the competition.

Feb 18, 2016 4:43 AM on Outfielders
 
labrat21
(72123)
Comment rating: -1

As it happens, our league allows four players to be kept for the next season. Two players can be kept twice - three years of control. That's actually a nice match to the three year rankings.

Feb 17, 2016 11:00 AM on Outfielders
 
labrat21
(72123)
Comment rating: -1

Setting SGP to ON should somewhat reduce the impact of SBs. The value of elite players comes in part from their difference from the worst players. Adding 8*14 hitters probably adds few SBs to the overall total. Hamilton's projected 80 SBs might be most of what you need to win the category. That approaches 20% of your total hitter value coming from one player. Yes, the average is negative, but that's still a ton of value.

 
labrat21
(72123)
Comment rating: 7

Fowler is mentioned 2 times: as unsigned and as having a Qualifying Offer.

 
labrat21
(72123)
Comment rating: 0

Is <span class="playerdef"><a href="http://www.baseballprospectus.com/card/card.php?id=67758">Evan Gattis</a></span> a catcher in 2016? I believe he had ZERO games at catcher in 2015.

Jan 11, 2016 4:43 AM on Catcher
 
labrat21
(72123)
Comment rating: 1

<span class="playerdef"><a href="http://www.baseballprospectus.com/player_search.php?search_name=Carlos+Martinez">Carlos Martinez</a></span> was not even included in the top 300 (really 298) draft list. I realize <a href="http://www.baseballprospectus.com/author/mike_gianella">Mike Gianella</a> wrote it, but you were credited as a co-creator. Granting an A+ grade for a late pick recommendation for 12-team leagues seems way too high. <a href="http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=25831"> http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=25831 the top 300 list</a>

 
labrat21
(72123)
Comment rating: 0

Christian Velasquez was going to be the Boston starting catcher until he injured his elbow and had <span class="playerdef"><a href="http://www.baseballprospectus.com/card/card.php?id=23954">Tommy John</a></span> surgery.

 
labrat21
(72123)
Comment rating: -2

If you are suggesting a playoff game in Baltimore, that is not happening. http://lyle.smu.edu/~olinick/riot/american_league.html Baltimore is eliminated.

Sep 30, 2015 11:14 AM on The Chaos Chase
 
labrat21
(72123)
Comment rating: 0

Thanks for all your work this past season. This is always an informative article.

Sep 25, 2015 8:04 AM on Week 26
 
labrat21
(72123)
Comment rating: -1

In the rest of the article you describe Hill as a Red Sox pitcher (which is true), but this sentence just doesn't fit: """ Well, he did it again on Sunday, making the start for Tampa Bay against the loaded lineup of the Red Sox and coming out the other side not only unscathed, but with a clean scoreboard and only two baserunners allowed yet ten strikeouts over 7.0 frames. """

 
labrat21
(72123)
Comment rating: 0

Rays seem to be down to a four man rotation: Archer, Karns, Erasmo, Odorizzi. Unless that changes, it looks like Erasmo gets two starts.

Aug 07, 2015 6:22 AM on Week 19
 
labrat21
(72123)
Comment rating: 0

Is an <span class="statdef"><a href="http://www.baseballprospectus.com/glossary/index.php?search=ERA" onmouseover="doTooltip(event, jpfl_getStat('ERA'))" onmouseout="hideTip()">ERA</span></a> of 5.10 north or south of 5.00?

Jul 27, 2015 7:02 AM on Week 16
 
labrat21
(72123)
Comment rating: 0

CJ Wilson has replaced Shoemaker as the two start LAA pitcher (@HOU, @LAD). I'm planning to start him in a moderately deep league.

Jul 27, 2015 6:57 AM on Week 17
 
labrat21
(72123)
Comment rating: 0

Chiming in with my agreement about sitting <span class="playerdef"><a href="http://www.baseballprospectus.com/player_search.php?search_name=Chris+Young">Chris Young</a></span>. Chris Young's start in Toronto is a day game. He has allowed 11 HRs in eight day games as compared to 3 HRs in thirteen night games.

Jul 26, 2015 11:08 AM on Week 17
 
labrat21
(72123)
Comment rating: 0

"I acknowledge that dwelling on one walk that followed a stretch of 111 consecutive batters Walker managed to not walk isn’t necessarily a great look. It’s akin to, say, complaining about a website that provides an immense amount of content 250 days a year for the price of about 15 cents per day taking a day off to try something fun and different, but hear me out anyway." Apparently there was a link to enable access to the normal site content, but the link was too buried for most of us to find. (The fun articles were OK, but totally breaking the other site features really hurt. I wish the link for normal site access link had been more visible.)

 
labrat21
(72123)
Comment rating: 0

ain't english wonderful: phases => fazes

Jul 10, 2015 11:07 AM on Make It Rain
 
labrat21
(72123)
Comment rating: 0

<span class="playerdef"><a href="http://www.baseballprospectus.com/card/card.php?id=51988">Cameron Maybin</a></span> and <span class="playerdef"><a href="http://www.baseballprospectus.com/player_search.php?search_name=Eric+Young">Eric Young</a></span> have likely swapped playing time. Maybin is probably the regular CF.

May 13, 2015 3:05 PM on September 28-October 4
 
labrat21
(72123)
Comment rating: 0

Exactly. It's an alternative to a score sheet, NOT the newspaper box score. That's clear from the opening paragraphs. The title is a bit misleading. And I totally agree with the comments above that this makes the most sense as an interactive framework for "viewing" a game as an alternative to a score sheet.

 
labrat21
(72123)
Comment rating: 0

Is Jaoquin Benoit the first closer to lose his job? Does a very late pre-season trade count? How do we score this?

Apr 06, 2015 5:50 AM on 10 Questions for 2015
 
labrat21
(72123)
Comment rating: 0

This might more properly go with the original draft article. I integrated the draft list with the PFM/Pecota projections and our CBS hosted league with its peculiarities. The result: """ It's a long way to October, but you have won the first round, winding up with the top ranked draft. Your squad, led by <span class="playerdef"><a href="http://www.baseballprospectus.com/card/card.php?id=46724">Troy Tulowitzki</a></span>, have the highest value when looking at the overall production of each of their starters. """ from CBS's automated draft report. Thanks fo all the help.

Mar 29, 2015 12:25 PM on BP Rankings vs. ADP
 
labrat21
(72123)
Comment rating: 1

With a draft, isn't the strategy to take the most valuable player who will not be available at your next turn to pick? So you're juggling your valuations vs the crowd's valuations. <a href="http://www.baseballprospectus.com/author/mike_gianella">Mike Gianella</a>'s suggested draft order when mapped to my league, shows 6 closers going in round 4. Historically, that's the round where our run on closers begins. So if your next pick is late in round 5, you could be perfectly rational to grab a closer in round 4 in hopes that a somewhat more highly valued player will still be available in round 5.

 
labrat21
(72123)
Comment rating: -1

This is just a list of players. The earlier tiered rankings and associated material had justifications for the decisions. That was rich content. Once I integrated the draft list for sorting with the <a href="http://www.baseballprospectus.com/fantasy/pfm/">PFM</a> and tiered rankings, I could see the inconsistancies. There were not that many. Most were improvements on the original rankings. I adjusted the "stars" where I thought appropriate. In summary, thanks for the draft list, it proved quite helpful in finalizing my own draft guide.

Mar 25, 2015 12:44 PM on The Top 300
 
labrat21
(72123)
Comment rating: -1

You have 298 players. The vacancies at 195 and 199 are never filled with duplicated ranks further down. The acutal numbering: | 191 | <span class="playerdef"><a href="http://www.baseballprospectus.com/card/card.php?id=35863">Santiago Casilla</a></span> | <span class="statdef"><a href="http://www.baseballprospectus.com/glossary/index.php?search=RP" onmouseover="doTooltip(event, jpfl_getStat('RP'))" onmouseout="hideTip()">RP</span></a> | | 192 | <span class="playerdef"><a href="http://www.baseballprospectus.com/card/card.php?id=656">Marlon Byrd</a></span> | OF | | 193 | <span class="playerdef"><a href="http://www.baseballprospectus.com/card/card.php?id=59768">Danny Santana</a></span> | OF | | 194 | <span class="playerdef"><a href="http://www.baseballprospectus.com/card/card.php?id=48219">Jake McGee</a></span> | RP | | 195 | <span class="playerdef"><a href="http://www.baseballprospectus.com/card/card.php?id=67072">Joc Pederson</a></span> | OF | | 196 | <span class="playerdef"><a href="http://www.baseballprospectus.com/card/card.php?id=70641">Michael Wacha</a></span> | SP | | 197 | <span class="playerdef"><a href="http://www.baseballprospectus.com/card/card.php?id=52572">Ian Kennedy</a></span> | SP | | 198 | <span class="playerdef"><a href="http://www.baseballprospectus.com/card/card.php?id=59639">Mike Fiers</a></span> | SP | | 199 | <span class="playerdef"><a href="http://www.baseballprospectus.com/card/card.php?id=31476">Matt Cain</a></span> | SP | | 200 | <span class="playerdef"><a href="http://www.baseballprospectus.com/card/card.php?id=45457">Brandon Moss</a></span> | OF | shifting players up[ to fill the vacancies.

Mar 23, 2015 5:29 PM on The Top 300
 
labrat21
(72123)
Comment rating: -1

There does not seem to be a lot of consistancy with the tiers (star counts). I assume that's because of various authors having differing views. It does make it harder to integrate the information.

Mar 20, 2015 5:05 AM on The Top 300
 
labrat21
(72123)
Comment rating: 0

I expected that the HTML would be escaped when pasted into your comment box. If there is NO escaping at all, you could be vulnerable to some mischief.

 
labrat21
(72123)
Comment rating: 0

The image handling HTML looks like:

Those are HTML5 tags. Older Internet Explorer versions will not work. You will also need to allow javascript from: gfycat.com

 
labrat21
(72123)
Comment rating: 0

My 16 team league requires 3 RP slots. So we need to carry 48 RPs which means a huge spread between the top closers and the dregs. That pushes up the value of the top RPs (even with SGP on). Does your league force teams to carry more RPs than the "standard" leagues with 9 (any) pitcher slots?

Mar 03, 2015 3:35 PM on Relief Pitchers
 
labrat21
(72123)
Comment rating: 2

You can see the URLs for the different choices in the browser status bar. Below is the URL for all positions; mixed league. http://www.baseballprospectus.com/fantasy/mikegvalues.php?pos=&lg=M&yr=2014 Use the URL in to capture the HTML as a file. Then open the file with your spreadsheet program. I'm using OpenOffice, but most modern spreadsheet programs should be able to read the HTML table into a spreadsheet.

Feb 23, 2015 2:00 PM on First Edition, 2015
 
labrat21
(72123)
Comment rating: 1

There are so many outfielders, I think it can be worthwhile to document the "discards". This is my list of players who have been dropped: Nick Markakis Josh Hamilton Drew Stubbs Shane Victorino Allen Craig Colby Rasmus Will Venable Juan Lagares Eric Young Matt Joyce Seth Smith David DeJesus

Feb 11, 2015 5:17 AM on Outfielders 31-60
 
labrat21
(72123)
Comment rating: 0

Wow, draft rankings too. I've actually been pretty happy using the tiers and pecota/pfm values to manage my drafts. Last year, that resulted in Jimmy Rollins, Dee Gordon, and Neil Walker as value picks. It also resulted in Will Middlebrooks :( Draft rankings can be tough to get right across so many different fantasy formats and variations. The PFM allows enough customization to get a good handle on my league's player values. The prior year numbers offer a nice base of comparison when trying to decide how much trust to give Pecota.

Feb 09, 2015 2:39 PM on Outfield
 
labrat21
(72123)
Comment rating: 0

The CBS computer proections are quite high on Danny Santana, higher than PECOTA. Still look at how PECOTA rates Billy Hamilton, a minor league SS who got moved to CF. Billy's value is saved by his projected 70 SB's. If Danny Santana were to hit at Billy Hamilton's projected rate, but only steal 20 bases, you would not have much value. So is Danny Santana's hitting that much better than Billy Hamilton's? Santana is 1 inch shorter and ten pounds heavier so maybe he really is a better line drive hitter. I'll leave the real scouting to people who know what they're talking about. In my CBS league, I'm hoping Danny Santana goes quickly so that I'm not tempted to believe PECOTA. The PFM/PECOTA projections are generally quite helpful, so I do tend to trust them.

Feb 06, 2015 6:20 PM on Shortstops
 
labrat21
(72123)
Comment rating: 0

"Hanley Ramirez and Starlin Castro head the next tier of shortstops" Hanley Ramirez is now on the Boston Red Sox in the AL.

 
labrat21
(72123)
Comment rating: 0

Jose Reyes was not worth a mention?

Feb 02, 2015 5:00 PM on Shortstop
 
labrat21
(72123)
Comment rating: 0

Well, I could not find an ebook edition on Amazon. B&N offered a Nook edition which I've purchased. The place holder icon says to expect it Feb 10. I do hope I can get the download before then.

Jan 27, 2015 12:39 PM on Rounds 1-2
 
labrat21
(72123)
Comment rating: 0

Amazon says Feb 10 for the annual. Is there a secret way to get it sooner?

Jan 27, 2015 9:07 AM on Rounds 1-2
 
labrat21
(72123)
Comment rating: 0

The 4-star paragraph about Frazier, Arenado, and Longoria never uses Longoria's name. I assume: "He’s been consistently good but" begins the Longoria part of the paragraph. If that's correct, change He's => Longoria has

Jan 27, 2015 5:39 AM on Third Base
 
labrat21
(72123)
Comment rating: 0

You are looking at LAST (2014) year's long term projections. The new projections should get released next week. This article is writing about the new 2015 projection numbers that will get featured in the block that is currently labeled: 2014 Preseason Forecast. Next week that should have a new set of figures and be labeled: 2015 Preseason Forecast

 
labrat21
(72123)
Comment rating: 0

In 2012, in the first reserve round, my co-owner said, "Take Mike Trout". That turned out pretty well. Still your point about the rookies vs veterans is well taken. How do you identify the veterans worth targeting? Focusing on Josh Harrison, he didn't get to start much until mid May. Even if I had drafted Harrison, I doubt I'd have held him until then. He'd have been dropped for someone who was playing. (In our 16 team league, Harrison was the first free agent from your list. Blackmon and Dickerson were drafted as Coors field hopefuls.)

 
labrat21
(72123)
Comment rating: 0

Visualizing the player stats: Should we care about the relative sizes of the pentagons? Tier2 is 4.00*Tier1 in area Tier3 is 2.25*Tier2 Tier4 is 1.78*Tier3 Tier5 is 1.56*Tier4 If the relative sizes matter, what are the correct ratios? If you think this is worth pursuing, I'm willing to assist with computing sides or radiuses to fit the desired parameters, and with scripting the image generation if that would be useful. (Not meant as a grumble. The visualizations are useful just as they are.)

Jan 14, 2015 3:08 PM on First Basemen
 
labrat21
(72123)
Comment rating: 0

Using the 2014 PFM results for my 16 team league, Ryan Howard out-performed ALL of the one-star guys. I realize that could be his peak, but he is a one-star guy on my list. I'm still hoping I do not have to reach that low.

Jan 14, 2015 11:38 AM on First Basemen
 
labrat21
(72123)
Comment rating: 0

Thank you VERY much; helpful discussion points. Typos: * the DH/OF double-asterisk/single_asterisk description is reversed from what appears in the player list * Kennys Vargas comment about earlier placement "at 14 after Mauer" is wrong. Mauer is #24. Perhaps after Hosmer (#13)? Despite the grumbles about typos, this really is quite helpful.

Jan 14, 2015 4:55 AM on First Basemen
 
labrat21
(72123)
Comment rating: 0

You list both Toronto catchers: Russell Martin and Dioner Navarro. Will there really be enough playing time for the two of them to justify having both as top 25 catchers? Is Navarro good enough to make this list if he's a backup?

Jan 09, 2015 9:40 AM on Catchers
 
labrat21
(72123)
Comment rating: 0

Wilson, Please speak up if I am way off base here!! I play in a 16 team one-catcher league. If I use the historical PFM and adjust* to 2 catchers: the top catchers become much more valuable (1.5 times their one-catcher value). I suspect position scarcity inflates the values of the top catchers. When the required number of catchers is reduced, the scarcity adjustment is also reduced. I demoted catches to lower tiers. The original rankings have 26 catchers in 4 tiers. If your league has many fewer catchers, most of the one-star tier is irrelevant and gets demoted and needs to get filled from the higher tier. This ripples through the tiers. The difference between your bottom catcher and Buster Posey is less. That bottom catcher is quite easily replaced, but the arithmetic difference between the bottom and Posey has been reduced. *(adjustment) Increase the total budget by the average $/position and also add that amount to the hitter budget (hold pitcher budget constant). Positional adjustment is ON.

Jan 07, 2015 2:19 PM on Catchers
 
labrat21
(72123)
Comment rating: 0

Interesting. When I transcribed your tiers for my fantasy league, I pushed McCann down a level based on league depth, last year, and three year average. So he's back where he started.

Jan 06, 2015 4:15 PM on Catchers
 
labrat21
(72123)
Comment rating: 0

http://www.moneychimp.com/features/market_cagr.htm Provides a calculator for Compound Annual Growth Rates for the S&P 500. [1871 - 2013] is 9.07%. 10% is pretty optimistic. The Vanguard S&P Index fund (admiral shares) which incurs real world expenses has a return of 5.94% since its unfortunately timed debut on 11/13/2000. I know this is just an exercise in playing around with basebal salary numbers and not investment advice, but 10% is high for an assumed growth rate.

Nov 23, 2014 6:02 PM on Saving on Stanton?
 
labrat21
(72123)
Comment rating: 0

http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?type=2&articleid=22165#154350 This is a February comment on last year's list counting the successes.

Nov 04, 2014 3:04 PM on The Free Agent 50
 
labrat21
(72123)
Comment rating: 0

A fantasy prediction that includes the Cy Young award is a bit over the top. I doubt that anyone took it seriously - it gets chalked to poetic license and Internet hyperbole. Placing Bumgarner 5th was actually reasonably close, at least for my league using the PFM to evaluate the stats. Of the top tier pitchers (BP tiers 4,5,6) he finished 7th, but quite close to #5, Jordon Zimmerman. There is a very long list of pitchers who did worse. Unless someone drafted Bumgarner ahead of Kershaw or Fernandez, they should be pretty happy with your advice. +--------------------+ | player | +--------------------+ | Kershaw, Clayton | | Hernandez, Felix | | Wainwright, Adam | | Sale, Chris | | Zimmermann, Jordan | | Price, David | | Bumgarner, Madison | | Scherzer, Max | | Greinke, Zack | | Fister, Doug | | Strasburg, Stephen | | Hamels, Cole | | Shields, James | | Cobb, Alex | | Ryu, Hyun-Jin | | Darvish, Yu | | Sanchez, Anibal | | Cole, Gerrit | | Gonzalez, Gio | | Bailey, Homer | | Fernandez, Jose | | Cashner, Andrew | | Latos, Mat | | Cain, Matt | | Verlander, Justin | | Lee, Cliff | +--------------------+

 
labrat21
(72123)
Comment rating: 0

To me, process is the analysis that gives rise to a strategy. I'd suggest that your analysis of pitcher costs and future value led to the strategy. Your description of actual pitcher valuations and outcomes also supported the analysis. Your strategy had you playing "pitcher roulette" with low cost pitchers. This basically worked out OK, though you did drop Petit who ultimately proved to be a "winning bet". I would couch a critique in terms of evaluating the correctness of the pitcher cost vs value analysis AND the expected value to be gained from "pitcher roulette" (the strategy you adopted based on the analysis). My view of the past season (omitting any rigorous math) is that the analysis and strategy were both sound.

 
labrat21
(72123)
Comment rating: -1

Thanks for the comments. With Cain on the DL in a deep mixed league, we'll take our chances, and hope the staff soul survives.

Jul 25, 2014 11:24 AM on Week 18
 
labrat21
(72123)
Comment rating: -1

Seconded.

Jul 25, 2014 7:19 AM on Week 18
 
labrat21
(72123)
Comment rating: 0

"this week’s graphic": I don't see it.

Jul 21, 2014 4:41 AM on Week 17
 
labrat21
(72123)
Comment rating: 1

minor nit from the language police: it should be complementary player (like complementary angle), not complimentary (saying nice things).

 
labrat21
(72123)
Comment rating: 0

I'm not arguing against Christian Colon, but Omar Infante has been pretty good over the past couple of weeks. I'm hoping he has turned his season around.

Jul 01, 2014 6:03 AM on Week 13
 
labrat21
(72123)
Comment rating: 0

The table above lists: Eric Hosmer 313 .247 This is Eric Hosmer's current production (run June 26). Eric Hosmer 346 .236 So in 33 more appearances, his TAV dropped .009. It looks like the UNDER is winning.

 
labrat21
(72123)
Comment rating: 1

and the second san francisco to seattle.

Jun 16, 2014 4:44 AM on Week 12
 
labrat21
(72123)
Comment rating: 0

"Batting average is where PECOTA and I part company. Hitters who can hit .332 can have the kind of ceiling shattering impact on the category the way that guys like Gordon and Hamilton do on stolen bases." My method for evauating the impact of average is to combine the player (Cano) with the average hitter stats (depends on roster size, etc). Cano is very good because he has a high average with a LOT of hits. I don't know the specifics behind the PFM/Pecota, but my results and the PFM were usually in broad agreement. (So much so that I've allowed my computation code to atrophy since it was easier to just get the PFM as configured for my league.) Do you have a better method for evaluating batting average impact?

 
labrat21
(72123)
Comment rating: 0

(no reason to take my opinion seriously) I have Venable in a 16 team league where Polanco is stashed and am considering offering Venable for Polanco. In your situation, I'd drop Venable for Polanco.

Apr 29, 2014 8:51 AM on Third Edition
 
labrat21
(72123)
Comment rating: 0

You might consider applying the theory to fantasy baseball auctions. The PFM and Mike Gianella provide some guidance, but a bit more economic theory could be useful.

 
labrat21
(72123)
Comment rating: 1

I think it is worth pointing out that the underlying roster rules give 39% of the roster to pitchers. If your budget was simply based on the roster proportions, it would be 61:39. The volitility of pitchers forces a reduction down from 39%.

Apr 21, 2014 5:57 AM on Why 70/30?
 
labrat21
(72123)
Comment rating: 0

I think this adjustment falls outside the projection system. The "correct" auction price for premium players really does exceed their nominal projected value. Similarly, the auction price for scrubs should be less than their projected nominal value. I wrote this: http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?type=2&articleid=23061#156750 before I saw your comment. I think there is a real economic basis for the differences between auction prices and nominal projected value.

 
labrat21
(72123)
Comment rating: -1

MG: "My bids do something that the PFM cannot: adjust for the real world dynamics of a fantasy baseball auction." When you buy a Jeff Keppinger type player, there is a very real risk that he will play his way off your roster. I am tempted to call that an "opportunity cost", but I could be mis-using the term. In other words, low-end players should be valued for even less than their meager projections, because you will likely need to spend more to fix your roster. A failure to meet nominal performance requires replacing them. The top players, may not meet their nominal dollar values, but they will still provide decent performance. That certainty is worth a premium beyond their projected value. Their roster spot is in good hands. I think this explains the "retroactive inflationary pressure" coined in an earlier comment. It would seem possible to build that kind of auction price adjustment into the PFM.

 
labrat21
(72123)
Comment rating: 1

Thank you very much for explaining the differences in rationales between your bid system and the PFM. I also appreciate your sharing of PFM settings. The PFM glossary and tooltips are concise, but insufficient without more background information.

 
labrat21
(72123)
Comment rating: 0

I like the framework implied by this article for _draft_ strategy. First you need the expected value for each draft slot. Then you need expected values for each player along with ceiling and floor expectations. Using the PFM for my 16 team league, Starling Marte has a higher expectation than Jay Bruce. The tiered OF rankings lump Bruce in the **** group while Marte heads up the *** group. The text makes it clear that Marte has the potential to be in the higher group, but there is concern about his floor. Bruce has a high floor. I can (and do) use the PFM to set expected values while watching for real world events that can invalidate the PFM - aside from the pitfalls in any projection system. I can also use the PFM values to help compute draft slot expectations. Pecota provides: breakout, improve, collapse, attrition values that can help with setting the range of expectations. I'd like to see a bit more guidance about using those values as opposed to having the expectations managed opaquely in the tiered rankings. Is there any likelihood of followup work along these lines for the upcoming season? (sorry for the length. Thanks for all the effort put into this site.)

 
labrat21
(72123)
Comment rating: 0

Juan Abreu CWS should be Jose Abreu bp# 102005 mlb# 547989

Feb 21, 2014 10:01 AM on First Basemen
 
labrat21
(72123)
Comment rating: 1

"Then come the PECOTA diagnostics, based on the percentiles." Some further explanation could help. Is IMPROVE relative to the Pecota projection or some sort of recent career average? (the rookies all seem to have low IMPROVE scores) Is (Breakout - Collapse) a reasonable proxy for upside?

 
labrat21
(72123)
Comment rating: 0

I agree. Elvis Andrus is another example. The projected Runs and RBIs are awfully low for that TEX lineup. No argument about SBs, HRs, or BA. Could something be amiss with the context computations?

Feb 06, 2014 7:46 PM on Shortstops
 
labrat21
(72123)
Comment rating: 0

The projected numbers for Jackie Bradley do not seem to be that far from actual stats by De Aza, Austin Jackson and Torii Hunter. All of them fit easily in the top 50 OF using the YTD stats and PFM. Am I missing something significant by looking at the PFM? I understand that Bradley is not Trout or Ellsbury, but De Aza and Austin Jackson are not such bad company.

 
labrat21
(72123)
Comment rating: 0

Aug 6 Stash List is marked for Premium Content. All the earlier Stash Lists were Fantasy Content. Was the change deliberate? (Locked out of the actual Aug 6 Stash List so commenting here.)