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Nothing to really do with the sub price change but PLEASE do some sort of updating with the stat pages. They are so clunky and sometimes hard to navigate.
It baffles me that my only options are year-by-year or all years. Being able to select a range of years doesn't seem to be a lot to ask for.
Thanks for everything you guys/girls do.
<span class="playerdef"><a href="http://www.baseballprospectus.com/card/card.php?id=67070">Mike Olt</a></span> seems to stick out to me too. BP had him in the top 50 a couple times - once at #30 - and others had him higher. He was the good glove 3B, patient, and powerful advanced hitter with good results. All the trade packages that dreamed of him, one I remember was for <span class="playerdef"><a href="http://www.baseballprospectus.com/card/card.php?id=51985">Justin Upton</a></span>, but ultimately he went for <span class="playerdef"><a href="http://www.baseballprospectus.com/card/card.php?id=49349">Matt Garza</a></span>.
Also I think now we could spot Dom Brown almost immediately.
Also I think we're more aware of how Reading plays for hitters.
OH COME ON.
Bryce Montes De Oca literally means mounts (or mountains) of goose. Or in other terms, Bryce of the Mountains of Geese.
I know this isn't a deep draft but that's a top 30 name in any class.
Totally agree, particularly with the strategy component.
The often cited example is "What if it's 1-0 in the 6th/7th and the pitcher is dealing, do you pinch hit for him and take him out?"
YES. First if it's a 1-0 game then runs will be at a premium and you want to increase your chance to score any marginal (and subbing in an actual hitter is more than marginal) way you can.
Secondly, it's also the time to switch pitchers anyways. In the 6th/7th the starter is probably at or near the third time through the order. The difference between your best reliever and your starter going through the third time is a big difference.
It's kind of weird to say, but maybe Moncada kinda HURT himself by appearing in the majors. The strikeouts were always a bit of a flag but now they may have gone from yellow to red (or at least orange). He struck out 30% of the time in AA then 60% of the time in his 20 MLB <span class="statdef"><a href="http://www.baseballprospectus.com/glossary/index.php?search=PA" onmouseover="doTooltip(event, jpfl_getStat('PA'))" onmouseout="hideTip()">PA</span></a>. Now I confident that won't last of course, but there's a realistic world where Moncada strikes out 25% of the time in the majors. That's not a killer by any means, but it's not nothing and puts pressure on the bat.
Still though, #5 overall is pretty damn good, and the difference between #1 and #5 isn't that much.
I'm surprised Cabbage didn't garner any mention. Crawford had him as #10 in the org last year in a stronger system (included Buxton, Berrios, Kepler, Polanco).
Could be a 50/50 hit/power guy at 3B (though it's also possible he moves to 1B).
Would you rather have taken Baddoo or <span class="playerdef"><a href="http://www.baseballprospectus.com/card/card.php?id=108090">Khalil Lee</a></span> (assuming he's an OF) in a re-draft?
This would break play index!
Certainly. Just wanted to point out sometimes the narrative can get lazy (not that that is the case here) that the Royals emptied the farm for the title runs.
One thing I want to discuss is the "flags fly forever" thing. Yes, KC traded Manaea/Finnegan/etc... for their championship run(s) but would any of those guys still be on the list? Neither made their respective teams list.
The issue for the weak farm system has been drafting the past four or five years. Take a look at the top 10 again and you'll see only one first rounder in Dozier (who was taken early so they could pop Manaea later).
Their past few first round picks:
Russell - brief mention in the intro
Watson - No mention
Finnegan - traded
Griffin - No mention
Vallot - Outside top 10 (which I personally disagree with)
Dozier - #1
Manaea - Traded
Zimmer - Outside top 10
Starling - Brief mention
Colon - MLB Utility player
Crow - Basically out of baseball (signed MiLB deal)
Other than <span class="playerdef"><a href="http://www.baseballprospectus.com/card/card.php?id=69538">Terrance Gore</a></span>'s 37 games as a pinch runner/fielder, KC hasn't had a drafted position player make the major leagues since 2010 (Colon/Eibner/Merrifield).
I don't think BP considers being blocked or not in regards to talent ranking (good players usually play).
However I will disagree that Hosmer and O'Hearn are similar. Hosmer doesn't have nearly the same swing plane as O'Hearn, who I've seen launch balls far beyond where Hosmer has. Also O'Hearn is going to strike out a good deal more than him.
Is there a way to export to CSV all seasons from the sortable stats page instead of year by year?
At this point, it seems like you could get through all 10 of the White Sox list and still be safe.
OH COME ON.... Out of all the Angels prospects profile pictures I was waiting to see, <span class="playerdef"><a href="http://www.baseballprospectus.com/card/card.php?id=109122">Brandon Marsh</a></span> was easily #1.
Marlins in the running this year for the #1 seed of systems with most players lacking a profile photo
93 is pretty good I think.
For a <span class="statdef"><a href="http://www.baseballprospectus.com/glossary/index.php?search=RP" onmouseover="doTooltip(event, jpfl_getStat('RP'))" onmouseout="hideTip()">RP</span></a> maybe not but 93.3 MPH would be in the top 20 among qualified starters (near Arrieta, Rodon, Bauer). For relievers it would be like 60th.
And as we know, it's not just raw velo but movement too, and Giolito has that downward movement.
I do miss the tool grades (even if it was just one or two of them) in the summary profile
I'm glad we got the simulation number in life that resulted in Sam being the BP editor.
Looking at Royals catching prospect who's last name starts with a "V": Vallot or Viloria?
Care to expand a bit on the significant flaws you mentioned for Dozier? Likely something to do with some of the high K% we've seen at levels from him.
Seven words: <span class="playerdef"><a href="http://www.baseballprospectus.com/card/card.php?id=59432">Mike Trout</a></span> in the Cape Cod League
Wow you guys are obviously way lower than I am on #1 overall name. That's interesting but here is how I see it.
Yeah, Ulysses Cantu is a solid but safe pick for 1.1. He checks the boxes you are looking for in a name:
Starts with a non-tradition vowel
Three of the same letter
Back-to-back of the same letter
A "y" in the first name
Dates back to third century
I get it but here is my qualm...it's a 40 grade last name. The slam dunk first name is enticing but there is a deep let down on the last name. What's the upside there? When you introduce him at parties you would simply say "this is Ulysses" because you might be embarrassed by the weak second half result.
But Easton McGee...are you kidding me? You are talking no doubt, front line stuff from this name.
The ELITE double capitalization in the last name
Double letter ending
Surname as a forename
Last name is an old European dynasty
Without even mentioning that McGee is top of the line fake name territory right up there with Smith and Doe.
Oh my god that's just...wow.
The sun rises in the East(on), as does this elite level name talent.
Yes, it most certainly is. There is no sarcasm font sadly.
Do you think Urias is someone who should be owned in NL-only 15 team dynasty 500 deep prospect leagues?
Definitely appears to be on an accelerated track. However let's also see him in AA first.
3 wins probably isn't his baseline.
For instance, here is Hosmer's seasons <span class="statdef"><a href="http://www.baseballprospectus.com/glossary/index.php?search=WARP" onmouseover="doTooltip(event, jpfl_getStat('WARP'))" onmouseout="hideTip()">WARP</span></a>:
2016: 2.3 (projected)
Hosmer has been consistently inconsistent. If he hits for power, he's good. Also both of his best seasons have had <span class="statdef"><a href="http://www.baseballprospectus.com/glossary/index.php?search=BABIP" onmouseover="doTooltip(event, jpfl_getStat('BABIP'))" onmouseout="hideTip()">BABIP</span></a> spike 25-30 points above his career average.
His career average BABIP is .312. In that 1.4 WARP seasons his BABIP was... .312.
I'm pretty sure that Greene photo is from a 90's sitcom promo shot...
And a pitcher no less.
Buxton got an 80 OFP the last 2 years.
OFP grades on go a few years back but it looks like just Giolito and Buxton as far as I can tell. Correa, Bryant, Taveras, Profar, etc... were all 7/70's.
"I also wouldn't say the promises to Nix were under the table, everything was just contingent upon Aiken signing."
Well considering they weren't allowed to do that (make the offer contingent on another player signing) explicitly, I'd say it was under the table.
Not to speak for the BP team, but he was a 24 year old who mashed AA who is just okay from what I've seen of him in the OF.
I don't think it's that he's not interesting, just that BP chooses 5 interesting players and Kemmer wasn't one of them.
This very website ranked Marshall 53rd overall in their pre-draft top 100. The slot value for 53rd overall in 2014 was ~$1M.
Marshall didn't have leverage just because he was a HS senior. He had it because he was a top 50 talent in the draft.
Yes. Aiken was wrong, but you seem to be implying that Houston did nothing wrong?
Which seems odd as they withdrew multiple offers from Aiken, made under the table promises to Nix (which then they pulled too), blatantly offered the least amount they possibly could, offered to another pitcher (Marshall) before even knowing if they could sign him.
I can agree there are shades of badness.
However it can't take back what a debacle that was. Neither side was 100% innocent.
The Astros themselves claimed that Aiken wasn't injured and was fine other than the structural issues of his elbow. I didn't see anywhere where they said "his UCL is going to snap." Aiken didn't have any injury issues prior to the draft either and was at full velocity.
It's not just about Aiken too, but Nix who was hurt in the process. Nix couldn't sign until Aiken did, and it's not permissible at all to make his deal contingent on Aiken signing. Nix did nothing wrong, passed his physical with flying colors, accepted the terms of the deal, then was told he wasn't signing because the Astros couldn't sign Aiken.
The Astros also went the complete low-ball route and blatantly offered Aiken the bare minimum amount they would have to in order to get a comp pick if they didn't sign him.
I feel like instead of focusing on the hinge-point of the deal(s) (Aiken) they wanted to also afford <span class="playerdef"><a href="http://www.baseballprospectus.com/card/card.php?id=106378">Mac Marshall</a></span> too. Which makes sense: get as much talent as you can. However when the biggest sticking point of the whole thing isn't in too good of shape, you should probably focus on that first.
Aiken should have taken the upped $5M offer of course, but do you honestly believe the Astros negotiated in good faith or BATNA?
Seems like the Astros went into the deal without any backup plan.
Warning: hot take here
I personally don't buy this at all, in the sense that the Astros are no harm no foul anymore necessarily.
Are they better off now than if they signed Aiken? Probably. But they still made a complete shit show out of the debacle.
I don't believe it's ever a *good thing* that a team didn't sign the first overall pick for the most part (unless the pick is a murderer or assaults women, etc...).
Forgiven? No, I don't think so unless you have medium-term memory loss and instead it's forgotten. It will always be a stain on Houston's shirt. It's certainly going to be brought up often when/if Aiken makes the majors. It was a huge story line, and possibly the biggest draft-centric story ever.
Yes, the Astros are better off. No it's not forgotten or forgiven. The whole situation sucked all around.
Thought Ryan O'Hearn might make the interesting guys list, leading the Sally League in homers. Seems like a lot of power and I was impressed that he hit a lot of center and opposite field home runs (not just pull power). Guessing you aren't convinced with the swing working at higher levels? Strikeouts weren't off the charts but did increase.
What would also be welcome here is either an update, direction to the right place or an actual entry into the catching metrics glossary.
Most of the glossary pages have no content when you select them from the drop down menu.
Man. Seems like Milwaukee has some drafting/player evaluation problems? Some of it is just systemic with how hard drafting is, but at some point part of it comes down on the team.
1st round picks and rank on this list:
2015: Clark (15th overall, 4th ranked)
2015: Kirby (40th overall, interesting guys)
2014: Medeiros (12th overall, unranked)
2014: Gatewood (41st overall, interesting guys)
2012: Coulter (27th overall, unranked)
2012: Roache (28th overall, unranked)
2012: Haniger (38th overall, unranked)
They had no pick in 2013, but 7 of their first round picks the past few years (which seems like more picks than most teams have) have been questionable guys. I really like Clark, but everyone else on that list is...man.
I guess we'll see how Stearns and co (whether it's new guys or not) will do thing differently than Melvin did.
They of course haven't had great draft positions the past several years (15th being the highest) but man... it's hard to believe this is the same org that unearthed baseball god <span class="playerdef"><a href="http://www.baseballprospectus.com/card/card.php?id=59432">Mike Trout</a></span> at 25th overall.
<span class="playerdef"><a href="http://www.baseballprospectus.com/card/card.php?id=47939">Austin Jackson</a></span> was a 2-win player in 2015 with a 94 wRC+ (267/.311/.385) and 8.3 defensive runs above average in center.
Not trying to plug a competing site on here, but 20-80 Baseball has a lot of ex-BP staff.
However you should still frequent Baseball Prospectus and pay for a subscription.
No <span class="playerdef"><a href="http://www.baseballprospectus.com/card/card.php?id=70754">Bubba Starling</a></span>? This list is clearly sus.
Maybe it's more so that he has an eye for what's not obviously a strike? Seems like Gallo normally walks because the pitcher(s) just refuse to throw him strikes and he's patient and well-eyed enough to not chase if he doesn't have to (like on a 2 strike count).
The evaluators here know better than myself
Not sure if they are at the same level of development, but Devers kinda seems like Bogaerts offensively (of course different positions). Possible above average hit with plus raw power with fringey or worse speed. Them both being Red Sox makes it a little too close, but Devers is a nice prospect like Xander was, but without the advantage of maybe playing SS like Bogaerts was.
Maybe got mixed up with fellow early rounder, who I switch too sometimes, <span class="playerdef"><a href="http://www.baseballprospectus.com/card/card.php?id=71129">Alex Blandino</a></span>.
Both named Alex
Both names end with an O
Both are from the west
Both to NL teams
Both played in the Midwest League
Maybe they are the same person!
To quote a BA article from April
" Another continued to express concern that Aiken’s congenital factors could make him still a riskier pick than the average pitcher coming back from <span class="playerdef"><a href="http://www.baseballprospectus.com/card/card.php?id=23954">Tommy John</a></span> surgery. "
Aiken might be an outlier for that though. Unlike Giolito/Hoffman, Aiken has had TJ and still teams seem to be worried by the size of his UCL. Seems like he's beyond the "standard" <span class="statdef"><a href="http://www.baseballprospectus.com/glossary/index.php?search=TJS" onmouseover="doTooltip(event, jpfl_getStat('TJS'))" onmouseout="hideTip()">TJS</span></a> prototype and instead in a spectrum of his own.
If Newman/Bregman don't stick at SS (which they likely could/will), don't they seem a bit like <span class="playerdef"><a href="http://www.baseballprospectus.com/card/card.php?id=102040">Colin Moran</a></span>? At least, more than I'd like them to be like Colin Moran (who's posted some sub-.400 slugging) who's been...underwhelming thus far.
More of a methodological for BP; it seems like there is agreement, with at least yourself Russell, that DIPS is important, yet BP used runs allowed for <span class="statdef"><a href="http://www.baseballprospectus.com/glossary/index.php?search=WARP" onmouseover="doTooltip(event, jpfl_getStat('WARP'))" onmouseout="hideTip()">WARP</span></a> no?
When the balls that don't go over the fence or into the catchers glove get put into play, they fall for hits! AKA <span class="statdef"><a href="http://www.baseballprospectus.com/glossary/index.php?search=BABIP" onmouseover="doTooltip(event, jpfl_getStat('BABIP'))" onmouseout="hideTip()">BABIP</span></a>; which Gallo has a .500 of.
League average BABIP usually hovers around .300, so there's gonna be some regression, despite of how luscious Gallo is.
That's a low level of <span class="statdef"><a href="http://www.baseballprospectus.com/glossary/index.php?search=%23want" onmouseover="doTooltip(event, jpfl_getStat('#want'))" onmouseout="hideTip()">#want</span></a>. A true competitor will find nothing that keeps them from writing about <span class="playerdef"><a href="http://www.baseballprospectus.com/card/card.php?id=70613">Joey Gallo</a></span>.
"was a first-round supplemental pick out of high school in 2014."
2012, rather than 2014. A HS pick drafted last year making his MLB debut (at what would be age 19) would be something special.
I just realized we won't get Park's mock draft this year... :-(
If you can believe it, <span class="playerdef"><a href="http://www.baseballprospectus.com/card/card.php?id=70754">Bubba Starling</a></span> has hit back-to-back-to-back (3) home runs in AA the past 3 games.
I'm hoping you're posting your comment from the past, because the Hedges article was posted yesterday!
I don't think Correa's future is any way dictated by what the Cubs or Russell do.
Is there an article anywhere for dynasty relief pitchers or prospect relievers? That's a tough egg to crack, but mainly looking for younger guys for the future.
Guessing Turner stays on the Padres until he's officially the PTBNL?
What's "a stretch"?
Zimmer pitched a full load of expected innings after his draft in 2012 and in 2013 pitched an entire season of innings save for the 2 starts he missed at year end in late-August when he was pulled as a precaution.
Obviously 2014 was unfortunate for him, but he was pretty good in college in 2011/2012, his pro debut in 2012, and almost all of 2013.
"Fair point, for sure. Note for 2013 I have 108 IP for Zimmer and 149 for Taillon. Is that not accurate?"
Yes it is. 89.2 (A+) + 18.2 (AA) most certainly equals 108.1 IP. Miscount by myself
Well I mean, Zimmer was drafted in 2012 while Taillon was 2010. Zimmer had no chance to rack up innings in 2012 in the professional leagues. He did however through 127 innings in 2012 when you count college and his pro-debut.
From 2013 (Zimmer's first full year) on:
Zimmer: 122 IP
It's not really Zimmer's fault that Taillon's 2012 professional season started in April and Zimmer's in July.
What's the difference between Taillon and Zimmer? My mind sees Taillon undergoing Tommy John surgery in April and not pitching an inning since while Zimmer at least made a couple starts and pitched well in the AFL. Yet Taillon drops 6 spots from 19 to 26 and Zimmer drops off from #34 last year (67 spots?)
" a singles hitting 1B (Hosmer)"
Hosmer has a .143 ISO which is basically a league average one. While not labeled as powerful, he isn't just all singles and has finished in the top 20-25% of qualified hitters in doubles the past two years
"another pitcher (Finnegan) who we were told would be a starter and was immediately used as a reliever. "
Finnegan's first 15 pro innings were in a starting role. It wasn't until mid-August, when the Royals were 11 games above .500 and in first place in their division, that they moved him to a more full time bullpen role. He's expected to return to AA/AAA in the rotation to continue on the original course.
" Southern League upon promotion."
Little fix; Dozier played in the Texas League (Northwest Arkansas).
Well, if the general consenus is that Buxton is the #1 overall prospect, and you're arguing that Correa is better than Buxton, then you are also arguing that Correa is better than Kris Bryant too, which I think many will also argue against.
Correa is easily Top-5 for me, but I'm not sure if he beats Bryant/Buxton necessarily. Of course though, it's completely subjective, and the difference between 1, 2, and 3 is usually minimal if there even is a difference.
Parks still ranks Baez #1
And another one in Zimmer will be there.
I definitely think you see more hitting prospects than pitching ones.
Clearly this article has been edited by Craij
Met Jason at a BP after party is KC for the briefest of moments. He and Moore were sitting there together, knocking one, but likely two, back. Was just walking out of the door due to a prior commitment and had just enough time to say hello and get a photo. Not only was Jason kind enough to pose for many photos as the cameraman fumbled taking photos, he was encouragingly enthusiastic about wanting us to stay, drink, and talk as if this were a reunion of sorts rather than a first meeting.
80 grade dude.
He's gotta quote Theo's wiki page no?
To be fair to BJ, he likely has the lowest average (min 25 AB) verse a lot of pitchers. You could almost say BJ Upton has the lowest average (min 25 AB) against (insert pitcher here) and have a 75% chance of being right.
" Instead, Detroit’s worst nightmare came to fruition as the Royals torched Verlander "
Little typo, should be Pirates instead of Royals
Man I can't believe Holmes made it to 22.
"August in Altoona" sounds like a real nice read.
This makes two straight articles that the Royals actual selection fails to make the redraft first round.
Most jokes are either trying to be sarcastic or funny. I chose sarcasm with a side of snark. I think I hit my point (hopefully).
He's not old and he's still in the minors. That's a thing right? Either way I was just kidding.
No Bubba Starling?
Omphf. Starling doesn't even make the Top 32.
What do you think is holding Dozier back from being a first division player?
Plus hit and plus power potential with good defense and arm at the hot corner sounds pretty nice. Is the question essentially WILL he reach those grades? Seems like the hit tool is already there.
Yeah this is no brainer good stuff. More info than you see elsewhere, detailed yet simple, and not super technical for the more relaxed reader at times. Love the brief overview then the preceding advanced breakdown format.
Easy 70 grade stuff,but could be higher with projection.
Wasn't close from what I heard. Here's the game log from the 1st inning:
Hunter Dozier walks.
Johermyn Chavez walks. Hunter Dozier to 2nd.
Cody Stubbs walks. Hunter Dozier to 3rd. Johermyn Chavez to 2nd.
Jack Lopez walks. Hunter Dozier scores. Johermyn Chavez to 3rd. Cody Stubbs to 2nd.
Four straight walks sounds a bit more his fault than just unlucky with he ump.
For what it's worth...Travis Harrison gets really good in MLB The Show 13
How can Bubba Starling not make THIS list!?
Can you guys also include fantasy projections for the next 10 years on the player, what his ERA against lefties are, and if Bubba Starling is going to be a good on each player page please? It's just too much work to click a link.
Little House keeping :
Billy Butler followed suite not Brett Butler
That's really hard to quantify.
Two ways to look at it I would think.
Reason A) Yes if the player even had one hit in a major league game he (seemingly) had a positive impact on the game for his team. The same idea if he hit a home run or had an RBI. That's on the most basic level. If you're looking at a guy, like let's say Jeff Francoeur for instance, who is a career .240 hitter with maybe 50 home runs or so but has a career negative WAR, then you think "well he obviously had hits, RBI's and home runs" which means he has SOME positive impact on his teams single game(s) performance, just not over his career (holy run on sentence).
Reason B) He had a career negative WAR. That inherently means, over the long term, he hurt his team and a replacement level player would have been better over that span. Does that mean the team would have been better off never having him or having a replacement level player instead?
I think you have to look at it over a long term span and short term.
Was Jeff Francoeur worth it May 13 2006 when he hit a walk off grand slam? Surely he was.
But was he worth it from May whenever for 2006 to May whenever of 2013, or any span where he accumulated long term negative WAR (which in his career seems like any span on 2 months)? You'd have to say no.
Post hoc ergo propter hoc just makes me think of The West Wing.
The Rays 2008, 2009, and 2010 draft classes are dangerously close to not ever having a MLB player.
If weren't for Derek Dietrich in 2010, then it would be really bad.
In a few years and article might have to be written about those classes.
You've got Mike Avila as the catcher when it should be Alex Avila.