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<span class="playerdef"><a href="http://www.baseballprospectus.com/player_search.php?search_name=Chris+Young">Chris Young</a></span>'s theme song is Ben Fold's Not the Same...
"You've got one good trick and you're hanging on you're hanging on"
He took a trip, went up a tree, and came down throwing the most effective high fastball in baseball.
I think you hit the nail on the head - winning the regular season is goal #1. Goal #2 is winning the post-season. If you're running away with things, you can always add a high contact rate hitter to complement your roster in a trade.
Contact rate itself may not be highly variable for a lot of hitters but <span class="statdef"><a href="http://www.baseballprospectus.com/glossary/index.php?search=BABIP" onmouseover="doTooltip(event, jpfl_getStat('BABIP'))" onmouseout="hideTip()">BABIP</span></a> is and that's not something you can easily predict. The Royals are a case of everything going right, the Red Sox, you might say, are the opposite case.
I'm with you on this with Puerto Rico being the example. If I worked for the Cuban professional league, I would already be trying to work with MLB on a compensation system similar to the NPB for when players can more easily move between the countries in future years. Maybe nothing gets agreed to now but at least you let MLB know what you'd like to see.
Unanimous votes for the 3 NL division winners is really funny.
The Braves just seem to be good at spotting talent that will translate to the major league level and handling those players through the developmental process in a way that gets them to the majors. That may be the best advantage you can have over your opponents because it's not something you can really quantify and it seems like it's difficult for other orgs to improve at it unless they just poach your people.
Whether it's merely prioritizing players with star upside a little more than other teams (like Heyward) or finding guys in the middle of nowhere (like Beachy and Gattis) the Braves seem to have that little extra something to their scouting staff that gives them an advantage. It's not something that will continue forever, but it's also not something easily imitated.
There was an in-game interview with Tom Brunanski the other day in which the announcer asked him what they were teaching hitters about situation hitting, like getting a runner on 2nd to third. His response was that he would tell the hitters he wants them to hit a double and replace the runner on 2nd. That was pretty refreshing to hear.
What would Atlanta possibly trade for Bradley, jr? It seems like the Red Sox would be selling as low as they could on Bradley here. Asking for a player with current or future value seems like too much and taking any player who isn't of future value of the team seems like selling way too low.
The way he pops his hips through the end of the swing reminds me of Joey Bats. Or I guess I should say it the other way around?
That's a good point. The Royals successfully converted Duffy and re-converted Davis to the 'pen. Davis was great in his one season as a reliever for the Rays but the Royals tried him as a starter at first.
Forgive me if I take the under on this team.
Crazy that Hurdle wins thanks to 2nd place votes. Should have sandbagged him, I guess.
The home runs I've seen from Soler this season have been so effortless. That guy might be the real deal.
Yes, but where should Hayden Simpson have been picked (rimshot).
Would it be possible to write a projection system that included velocity drop/increase or an injury that could measurably affect performance? I suspect it would be incredibly difficult to maintain vs. current projection systems but velocity is a measurable stat. You could possibly look at post-TJS or post-concussion performances and see if there's a trend.
That makes some sense. Byrners was very well liked by the previous controlling owner, John Moores. I wonder if this goes back to strife when Moores was still at the helm.
I guess the reason is: if you could just rely on projections to be a GM, anyone could do it?
Important question: Did Javier Baez hit 74 HR in any season?
Not that the high cost of 3.99 is going to prevent me from purchasing this spreadsheet...
Can anyone explain how does this compare to the composite rankings on the Fantasy 411 spreadsheet?
I knew Devon White was a pretty good defender (BBREF sees him as above average until he got into his early 30's) but had no idea anybody thought of him as one of the best defensive outfield prospect of all-time.
It's amazing how players' fortunes change. 2 years ago, Herrera was a sleeper while Story seemed to be a solid prospect. Then Story shot up the lists after 2012 with Herrera seeming to take a step back and now Herrera finds himself well above Story on this list after what happened last season.
The correct date for the game where Elmore played catcher and pitcher was August 19th, just FYI.
Someone should pass legislation that all future internet trade ideas be as complex and thought out as #7.
"... they already have B.J. Upton and Evan Longoria at third base."
Did BJ Upton attempt every infield position before the Rays settled on sending him to CF?
I'm definitely loving all the Gabe Kapler articles around the web lately and the recent tour of podcasts. Can't wait to read/hear more. It's great for fans when someone emerges who can bridge the canyon between what fans see and what goes on behind the scenes.
On that note, are there players who have had a surge over the last month or so who we should keep an eye out for in the second half? Eric Hosmer, for example, had an .889 ops in June and .854 so far this month.
I know part of this is camera angle but I actually kind of enjoy watching Wheeler's fast ball get away from him because it just seems to take on a life of its own.
"A prospect from your favorite team"...
Finally, a ranking everyone can agree on.
The Twins wish they had a Dan Vogelbach ;)
Starlin Castro walked for the first time this season not long before walking for the second time in the season. I think there's a glitch in the Matrix.
From your article: "The kitchen utensil guy also found that while BABIP might take around 3,800 balls in play to show enough statistical reliability to be considered stable, it does eventually stabilize."
That's what I find important about BABIP: it can be random from one season to the next. It isn't necessarily totally random in a large enough sample size but baseball players tend to be judged with arbitrary end-points so it's important to consider what role BABIP is playing in a player's success over the course of 10, 50, or 162 games.
If the studies BP has published on clutchness are true, and it tends to be a phenomenon associated with players of the Mark Grace or Tony Gwynn toolset (ability to hit with a high contact rate and maybe change how they hit in different scenarios), then it could be true that there are some undervalued players out there. I just can't think of anyone in baseball today that is undervalued in the way Grace was. Scutaro has a great ability to make contact but he's no Mark Grace. I don't think Gwynn was undervalued (except by the 1987 MVP voters) and I think, since clutch players seem to be high batting average guys, it's really hard to find the undervalued ones.
That music reminds me of the credits music to a 16 bit video game.
Thank you for this. I'm so tired of this question or the idea that you can predict who the next Orioles will be (since there's probably no metric you could have used last March to model what the Orioles did last season).
Regression is a bitch.
They torched their pythag record in the second half by 4.5 wins which was just short of their first half record which was 6.5 wins over pythag. They were almost as lucky in the second half as the first. They were a better team in the second half but still not as good as their .623 record.
Does it look like Ty Kelly could make his way onto the 2013 roster as a go-to utility player for Baltimore? Seems like he knows how to swing at the right pitches. He doesn't have a lot of power or play short but they have Machado to back up Hardy, if needed, I guess?
Er, predicts rather....
Any thoughts on why it only predictions 16 HR for BJ Upton?
1/3 of them, anyway.
I hope the Cubs have figured out that Barney shouldn't hit anywhere near the top of the order. Looks like half his PAs were there last season.
Jeff Smardzija may be a tough one for projection systems given his limited time as a starting pitcher and his problems pitching effectively at all prior to the end of 2011?
Maybe Matsui just needed an adjustment season. He nearly met that projection in '04.
How about A.J. Ellis? Ellis will be 31 in April and I wonder if teams will be better prepared for him in 2013?
I feel like, as long as Hellickson is pitching for Tampa, he could keep this up for a couple seasons. He has a great park to pitch in and great defense behind him. If he were to get traded to a team like the Phillies, things could change drastically; but I have a feeling he could keep cheating regression a little while longer, especially if his strike-out rate increases again.
Speaking louder impairs lip-reading? I guess that's why my deaf college professor never understood a word I said...
I have a hard time believing Nate McLouth is suddenly the guy the Braves traded for again. Are there very many cases of positions players being pretty good, then sucking for several seasons and then being pretty good again for an extended period of time?
In any case, Baltimore was so dependent on a nearly historic season by its bullpen, it would be shocking to see them in contention next year.
I can't believe my monitor is still attached to my computer after reading through that list.
Would it be unfair to say that Towers reminds us of most middle-of-the-pack GMs who seem to value known quantities over riskier players?
On a slightly related note, are there any good articles anyone knows of about Towers' legacy in regards to San Diego's farm system? Most reports I've read pin a lot of blame on him for leaving the team with a barren system and a lack of personnel and resources to help make it better.
The thing about directing a play is that, once opening night comes, a good director knows to just get out of the way and let the actors take the reins. This is different from a manager who just can't allow himself to let players play and is constantly inserting himself into the equation in ways that often prevent the team from achieving what it could do on its own like with intentional walks , hit and runs and sac bunts.
If it's of any consolation to anyone, Eddie Rosario turned into a monster in my OOTP league :)