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No, he's saying that you stop being able to track the slower pitch .5 inch closer to you than the faster pitch.
Over half a second(roughly the amount of time it takes a pitch to reach home plate) the 91 mph FB would be about 8 inches in front of the 90 mph one I think.
Daily Hit List layout could use more contrast...not a fan of the gray-on-white scheme.
How much research did you have to do to determine that Epstein was a *right-handed* executive?
Re: Pizza Pizza!
Can't seem to find any documentary evidence, but wasn't there some thing where when the Tigers were historically bad in the early 00's, Tom Selleck asked for reruns of Magnum P.I. to photoshop out the Tigers hat for a Yankees hat? If so, that would make a terrific addition to the story arc of this movie.
Also, I believe it's a *city* boy, born and raised in South Detroit:
In 1990 there wasn't a much nicer stadium right across the bay. I'm a Red Sox fan in San Francisco, and I have no particular allegiance to either the Giants or the As, but I go to easily half a dozen Giants games a year(just because) and maybe one or two As games(when the Red Sox are in town), and that is entirely due to the fact that the Oakland Coliseum is a ****hole and AT&T Park is really nice.
The As really do need a new stadium.
Don't like this deal for the Red Sox. Aviles seems like a marginal upgrade if that over Navarro. If Navarro had any value at all, why not use him as a chip in a trade for a starter instead of swapping around backup infielders?
If you are tech-savvy enough, many browsers will actually let you override the CSS styles for a particular site. For Firefox, I think these instructions are still to up to date.
You can find similar things for other browsers.
With the benefit of hindsight, it's clear that he should have slid. But trying to make a split-second decision is different than looking at a replay in slo-mo from a completely different angle. Given that colliding with the catcher is considered a legitimate part of baseball, I don't think you can really criticize Cousins for doing so.
That said, Carlos Santana got hurt on a collision at home last season. I for one would rather be able to watch the best young players in the game play baseball rather than get carted off. It's never really been clear to me why the "knocking the ball away" strategy is allowed on plays at home when it clearly would not be anywhere else on the diamond - if a player trying to beat out a single plowed into the first baseman, that would clearly not be legal, so why is it OK at home? I for one would not be upset to see MLB investigating rule changes to prevent these kind of collisions in the off-season.
Really? It seems pretty clear to me that you would rather employ a 5 WAR player and a 1 WAR player than 2 3 WAR players - for one thing, when you realize that you are going to need an extra win to make the playoffs, it will be much easier to find a 2 WAR player to replace the 1 WAR player than a 4 WAR player to replace one of the 3 WAR players.
You could also look at it as an opportunity cost - you are not just paying a player $10M a year - you are paying him $10M a year AND a roster spot.
Rob Deer as 3 Men and a Baby? Neither is particularly well remembered today, though lots of people would have recognized both at the time, both made a few people smile back then, and both featured at least one awesome mustache.
Marc, am I missing something, or were your NL starter comments going up today as well?
I think Tommy is suggesting there is a) a selection bias in the way our run expectancy matrix is calculated, and it may be undervaluing stolen bases and b) bad data in there since we are including busted hit-and-runs as caught stealing.
Sorry, but I'm still having a problem with adjusting the budget - if I try to change "total" or "hitters," I get the error message and it defaults back to the same values. Any advice?
it is normal, the projections are an average projection so none of them are that high. Look at the 90th percentile percentages to see higher end projections, and remember that some people will exceed even those - Jose Bautista 90th percentile projection was for 25 home runs last season, to pick an obvious outlier.
North Jersey, please! This land of sparing virtue, which takes literally McDonald's instructions to "put litter where it belongs" - on the ground, of course - needs such a break from brutal winter and itself.
Great article. Love this stuff just as much as the stat-heavy articles, and I love those too.
I like to drop in here for a few minutes a few times a day as a break from work - on the weekends I try and go outside and get away from screens of all kinds and do stuff IRL, as the kids these days say.
So I won't miss the weekend content. I was usually just catching up on it on Monday morning anyhow.
This is a great interview. Really interesting stuff.
I agree with the last commenter. Your new approach is quite good, and you can't please everyone. People need to read the narrative, which you write quite intentionally.
18 games in 2006 does not count as semi-regularly.
I really can not possibly see a scenario where Youkilis would play left except as a result of only 2 of Ellsbury, Cameron, Drew, Hermida, and Josh Reddick being available due to injury or whatever. Those kind of situations are the only time Youk has played left for the past 3 years. Remember the whole "improved defense" thing that the Red Sox are going on this year? OK, now remember the couple of games that Youkilis has been forced to play out there the past couple of years. Putting Youk in left is not going to happen. If there is no else to play left, he does it, and the Globe gets to write a story about what a team player he is, and that's great and all, but it doesn't change the fact that if he is in left, things are not going well for the Sawx.
If Lowell is still around come April, he will get starts at 1st to spell Youk and Beltre(with Youk playing 3rd), and platoon duty against lefties as a DH. That's it.
1. (intr) to return or revert, as to a former place, condition, or mode of behaviour
2. (Mathematics & Measurements / Statistics) (tr) Statistics to measure the extent to which (a dependent variable) is associated with one or more independent variables
It's not the OED, but I think it indicates that this is pretty standard usage.
It takes some doing to make a trade of Dana Eveland for unknown quantity X entertaining. Credit to Christina for taking early February, long known as the doldrums of baseball transactionery, and making it at least worth paying a little attention to, even if it's really only for the obscure historical references.
Thanks for the explanation.
Now that I understand it, I wonder if there might be some risk tolerance considerations that would make it more likely for the player to win, because players would only be willing to go to arbitration if they thought they were likely to win. Teams might be willing to gamble a few hundred thousand dollars on an arbitrators decision, but for a player who may not have made big bucks up to this point that is probably a lot harder to do.
Can someone explain this Priest-Klein selection hypothesis?
Also, if 0 is the player figure, and 100 is the team figure, wouldn't an average settlement of 46% indicate that pre-arbitration settlements slightly favor the player?
Indeed - they have Johan Santana at 4.01 ERA. Obviously he is coming back from the elbow, but it fits the pattern you've identified of elite NL starters experiencing major ERA bumps (Santana hasn't been north of 3.33 since 2002)
Statistics, by their very nature, paint incomplete pictures. If you know that a particular GM was told to cut costs and never mind the wins, then please mention that so that those of us not in the know about that GM can mentally adjust these numbers ourselves.
But I spend a lot of time on sites dedicated to statistical analysis of sports, and frankly I'm sick of people pointing out the INHERENT LIMITATIONS OF STATISTICS in a completely general way. Either accept those limitations or don't, but pointing them out does not do anyone sophisticated enough to read the articles on this site any good.
Every time I hear talk of Matsuzaka being a mistake, I just remember that during that off-season the big discussion I was having with fellow Sox fans was whether the Red Sox should sign Matsuzaka or Barry Zito. Heh.
Anyhow, it's easy to forget after a completely lost 2009 that Matsuzaka produced 200 innings of decent pitching in 2007 and 170 innings of very good pitching in 2008. Those two seasons alone put him in the "not-mistake" category, even if they do not put him in the "unmitigated success" category.
If Cameron is truly an elite defender(I have barely seen him play, I don't watch the NL) then he should absolutely replace Ellsbury in center. Ellsbury is just not an elite center fielder. He is blazing fast and has a pretty good glove, but he has a weak arm and sometimes does not get a very good jump on the ball. If Ellsbury is not traded then I think it is obvious that Ellsbury should move to left.
If they trade away Ellsbury does that make Hermida the every day left fielder? Do they bring Josh Reddick along?
I think as Red Sox fans we just have to accept that Theo Epstein refuses as a matter of principle to employ a competent shortstop for longer than half a season, and live with this quirk along with otherwise excellent management.
It's either that or Jed Lowrie has compromising pictures.
You have been seriously missing out. Go back and read the last week(at least) of Transaction Analysis right away.
Seriously dude, she's one of the founders, she's the editor, I'm pretty sure her name's been on the front of every BP book ever...I don't know how you manage to miss her stuff, there's an awful lot of it.
Seriously people, you are just showing that you do not know what you are talking about by ragging on Microsoft here. The .NET framework is really nice, and that's speaking as someone who has done extensive work on both it and the Java/JSP stack. SQL Server 2000 is admittedly horribly out of date and was not a great product to start with, but SQL Server 2008 is perfectly fine. They just need to upgrade.
Too bad I have zero interest in moving to Dallas, this would otherwise be a great job for me.
New to PFM: I see at least one person saying he doesn\'t use inflation - other opinions on this? I thought it seemed useful, but do folks not find it so?
Great advice - I just looked at this tool, and it\'s awesome - thanks!
Anyone have any advice for a new-ish fantasy baseball player about how to use this data? For instance, one question I have is whether people feel like VORP can be used to compare players between positions for draft purposes.
Josh Hamilton is projected at 25 HR and 94 RBI in 642 plate appearances, down from 32 HR and 130 RBI last year - that\'s a pretty substantial drop, no?