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Anyone who watches the Orioles day in and day out has to be scratching their heads at the number 8 ranking. They feel like they should be at about 15 or 16.
Regardless of the analytics, there is not a team in baseball that is as good as the Pirates right now.
Okay, thanks, Matt.
As a recent convert (from Diamond Mind Baseball) to OOTP, I am excited about this new version.
However, I wonder if two significant problems have been addressed:
1. The play-by-play is weak, especially when compared to the seemingly infinite variety and creative prose of Diamond Mind Baseball's play-by-play.
2. It is extraordinarily complicated to create your own league using players and/or teams from different years. It seems that the game is not set up to do this, though there is a way (I wrote out directions for a friend of mine as to how to combine, say, players from 1885 with players from 1998, and it was something like a 12-step process just to get to the point where this was a possibility).
Have either of these problems been improved upon?
Okay, thanks, Rob.
(When) will UPSIDE be ready?
Looking forward to the new PECOTA projections. Do you know when UPSIDE figures will be released?
Trouble with the Curve was pretty bad. Though I must say, it takes a lot for me to dislike a baseball movie.
As an Orioles fan and as a baseball fan, I am so excited for this series. No matter who wins, I will be rooting for them in the World Series.
If you're not a baseball fan after watching that game, you'll never be (and you should get your head checked).
PECOTA on prospects is exactly why I started subscribing to Baseball Prospectus. It is the most valuable and unique feature BP has to offer. Thank you for resurrecting it! I hope this is relaunched next year two months sooner so that we can use this information in our fantasy drafts.
From a strictly fantasy perspective? Seems like Baez is the clear leader, no?
A great idea. As I said last year, I would buy this in a heart beat if it included UPSIDE/10-year projections and was released before March 1st (i.e., before most fantasy drafts).
I subscribe to mlb.tv for the Orioles and Pirates but once their games are over I often watch the Dodgers. You can't get any better than Vin Scully on a warm summer night.
I'd actually take the under on Adrian Beltre. Thirty-five years old is almost as old as I am and I can't even walk up a few flights of stairs without losing my breath.
This is a great offer, but like probably the majority of BP subscribers, I already renewed my mlb.tv account.
For those of you who want to watch in-market games, I strongly recommend thinking about one of these kinds of services: http://www.unblock-us.com/
The long-term projections on hitters seem too conservative (and don't seem to be in sync with the 2014 projections):
- Chris Davis will never hit more than 26 home runs again (and rarely hit more than 20)
- Bryce Harper will never hit more than 27
- Javier Baez will never hit above .240
- Andrew McCutchen will never bat above .287
- Hanley Ramirez will peak at a .272 average
- Billy Hamilton will never steal more than 59 bases
Yep, that seems to work. I invited a handful of Pittsburgh baseball fans.
And yes, I meant Joe Kulik.
I hope this works out!
You might want to make the group a little more accessible, if that's possible. I'd like to invite a bunch of Pittsburgh friends to join but it looks like each of us has to send a request to join the group first. Anyway, thanks for setting this up.
awesome! Thanks, Joe!
I'm in Pittsburgh and I'd go (and could probably get a handful of others to join as well). If you create the facebook group, can you post the link?
Interesting. Thank you.
sorry, just saw your Sano comment at the end.
Given that he is virtually a prospect for fantasy purposes, where would Masahiro Tanaka fit on this list? And how much does Miguel Sano's injury affect his rank?
the man is amazing.
In your top 10 list you have Syndergaard as a C, not a RHP, and d'Arnaud as a RHP, not a C.
this was especially true within the Yankee universe when Jeter broke "the record" for most hits. The *team* record, that is. The Onion put it best: "Derek Jeter Honored for Having Fewer Hits than Harold Baines" (http://www.theonion.com/articles/derek-jeter-honored-for-having-fewer-hits-than-har,2810/).
From an inside source: Burnett's decision not to re-sign with the Pirates had everything to do with the team's decision to not give him the ball to start Game 5 of the NLDS last season. Had he gotten the start that day, win or lose, he'd be a Pirate right now.
Edward Encarnacion is third base-eligible in my Yahoo league. Where would he be in this analysis? Four stars?
and, you know, the eight runs that the Cubs pitchers gave up entirely on their own.
Yeah, I'd love to see an additional article entirely on this:
"PECOTA sees the Cardinals as favorites by a healthy margin."
I really wish I understood what these shirts meant... Can someone please explain this to a guy who's usually the last to get a joke anyway? ;)
the "bother Beltran" hyperlink takes you to the boxscore, not any story about how Puig's antics bothered Beltran.
There was no reason at all to bring Melancon into any postseason game. Everyone who had watched him pitch in September (except for, apparently, Clint Hurdle) knew that he was a liability out there on the mound. Whether it was physical or mental, I don't know, but he clearly couldn't get the job done any more.
Maybe, but a five-game series doesn't determine which team is better.
I think Clint Hurdle, not the lack of a DH, is responsible for lifting Cole there. It was way too early and not the appropriate situation (e.g., runners in scoring position and two outs) anyway.
I agree with you with one exception: any Yankees game in which either Tim McCarver and Joe Buck or the regular Yankees announcers are calling the game. But thankfully my tv has a mute button, so I don't run into that problem too much anymore.
Thank you for this carefully and clearly written piece. This is top-shelf sports-writing and the reason I subscribe to Baseball Prospectus. I love it.
Thankfully, this song is not so true anymore, but it does capture the pre-2013 Clint Hurdle pretty well: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rTouwDzRoaE
Great write-up. Pittsburgh is buzzing with excitement these days.
I'm wondering what you thought of Hurdle's decision to pinch hit Jose Tabata for Clint Barmes, thus bringing the weaker defensive shortstop, Jordy Mercer, into the game for the final two innings. It seemed like a foolish move but it ended up not hurting the Bucs.
Clint Barmes started at short for the Pirates last night and I see no reason in the world he won't be there in the first inning on Thursday.
Great piece on a great hitter. It's too bad the Cincinnati Reds' strategy for dealing with McCutchen is simply to throw at him.
I have to say this: while I've never enjoyed seeing an incorrect call (even when it's in favor of my team), I've also never *not* enjoyed watching a manager argue with an umpire. Maybe that's just from growing up watching Earl Weaver, but the elimination of arguments will take away some of the drama of the game. Nevertheless, I'm glad they're instituting replay. It will make games fairer and take the heat off the umpires.
You could have said the same thing about John McEnroe when tennis instituted instant replay. Gone was that drama but gained was a truer game.
A couple of my own pet peeves:
1. "of late," as in, "he's been hitting well of late." What's wrong with "lately?" Or "recently? Is there anyone else on the planet, other than baseball announcers, who regularly say, "of late?"
2. when interviewing a player or manager, baseball announcers who don't ask questions but rather make a statement (e.g., "the team has been playing really good baseball of late, putting together clutch hits and picking one another up time and time again,") and then follow that with, "don't you think?" or sometimes with nothing else at all. Ask questions. That's your job as a journalist.
Manny Machado hit most of those doubles when he was 20. But he's 21 now.
This is a great idea! The color-coded WARP would be more effective, however, if you made the color gradations more significant. The pinks and reds really stand out but the greens and yellows blend together too much. Or maybe I'm just color-blind?
I'm not sure I understand how Billy Hamilton can be ranked so high. Of what relative value are his stolen bases when he can barely get on base in the first place (in AAA, mind you)?
I can't see any connection there.
Did Greinke have an additional hard slide that game? After the brawl, he remained on first base and then took a hard slide into second on a fielder's choice but I wasn't aware of an additional hard slide.
Very compelling ideas here. A couple related points:
(1) Umpires need to begin enforcing Rule 6.08 (b.2), which calls a batter out for not making an attempt to get out of the way of a pitch. I think I've seen this enforced only once yet batters regularly get hit without making any attempt whatsoever to get out of the way (and, indeed, often turning in to the pitch).
(2) Batters (like Derek Jeter, for example) who regularly have their hands hanging over the plate and even in the strike zone sometimes, should expect to get hit in the hands.
(3) all that said, perhaps an automatic 30-day suspension for a pitcher who hits a batter in or very near the head, regardless of intent.
I didn't even know there was such thing as Prospect Tracker until now! This is a great feature. Thanks!
This is top shelf Baseball Prospectus stuff here. We Orioles fans have a lot to be excited about and Machado is definitely one of them. But I think this piece makes it clear that not just Orioles fans but all baseball fans should be excited about Manny Machado. Nonetheless, let's go O's!
Nick Adenhart and Darryl Kile, of course.
This is a great idea and I'm excited to see it. I won't be buying this year's version but I would buy next year's if: (a) it's released before my fantasy draft (late Feb/early March) and (b) it includes quantitative analysis of prospects (particularly UPSIDE and 10-year projections) as well as qualitative. If it includes those statistical measures, I can see this being more popular than Baseball America's prospect book.
I can't wait for the Orioles to prove you all wrong ;)
But even the qualitative evaluations of Wieters were saying the same thing. I believe Baseball America had him as the next big thing as well.
Awesome. Thank you!
I really appreciate this message. UPSIDE was the reason I continued subscribing to BP for my first few years here and its demise was the reason I stopped (a friend was kind enough to gift me a subscription this year). Do you expect UPSIDE/10-year projections to be ready for next year?
how much better is Yadier Molina than Matt Wieters? Same tier?
how many residents of the Keystone State thought this article was going to be about the Phillies and the Pirates?
This is the fairest, and best, assessment of the 2013 Orioles I've seen to date. LET'S GO BIRDS!
Thank you for this list! This is something I look forward to as much as the PECOTA release.
A couple questions:
1. If you had to break this list apart into tiers, where would the first tier break from the second? In other words, where is the first relatively big gap between two adjacent positions?
2. Which rankings in particular did you fret about the most?
I'm sorry to hear that. I really hope it's back in 2014. It is, in my opinion, BP's most valuable tool.
I'd really *really* like to see the resurrection of UPSIDE, particularly so that you can do something like this again: http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=5836
Yes, but has PECOTA factored in that this year we have the ghost of Earl Weaver to help us? ;)
why BP would retire UPSIDE is a complete mystery to me. As someone who plays in a 100% keeper fantasy league, where our only draft picks are prospects, UPSIDE (and particularly, the ten-year UPSIDE figures) is the single most valuable tool BP offers to me. Moreover, Nate Silver's quantitative analysis of prospects (which he often explicitly and humbly compared with Baseball America's qualitative analysis) was something only BP, and not a single other publication, offered. But we don't need Mr. Silver to keep this going. The formulas are already there. It's just a matter of releasing the figures.
you're right, sorry about that. I was looking for it next to OBP and SLG. Thanks.
Awesome! It's so fun to start looking through these.
When will UPSIDE (and particularly, ten-year UPSIDE figures) be available? At the risk of sounding like a broken record, this is simply Baseball Prospectus's most valuable and unique tool available, particularly for those of us interested in prospects. So let's make it available!
Also - there is no batting average category for the hitters on the PFM, but there is for the pitchers. Is that an oversight or intentional?
This Orioles fan is glad 2013 is not 2003.
But hey, while we're resurrecting the Great Nate Silver, could we please have (1) ten-year UPSIDE figures this year and (2) using those figures, some kind of qualitative v. quantitative analysis of prospects? This is simply Baseball Prospectus's most valuable and unique feature yet it has been sitting in the BP tool shed, collecting dust, for way too many years now.
We'd love to have you here in Pittsburgh!
Thank you, Christina. This was a wonderful article. I've long wanted to read Weaver on Strategy. I'll definitely pick up a copy now.
Yes, I'm a life-long Orioles fan, going to games at Memorial Stadium as far back as 1982, but it is true: a lot of Orioles fans at least in those days were pretty racist, especially against Murray.
Good news all around. Will you be releasing ten-year UPSIDE figures this year at the same time that the rest of PECOTA gets rolled out?
A lot of us in Pittsburgh were frustrated all year last season that Michael McKenry didn't get more starts behind the plate. I've already heard folks suggesting that he'd be a better bargain than Russel Martin. How do the two measure up against one another?
I'd really like to see Baseball Prospectus bring Sabermetrics (and in particular, PECOTA's UPSIDE) back to evaluating prospects. It's the only legitimate, quantitative tool out there for evaluating prospects, and it's just collecting dust in the BP tool shed. It would be as if The New York Times kept Nate Silver on their payroll but locked him in a closet without a computer or a calculator.
I'd like to see a quality second baseman as well.
how about bringing a major league team to Pittsburgh? (sorry...it had to be said...)
this is a fantastic and important article. Thanks so much for writing it.
I totally agree. But first-hand observation without stats is just as limiting. That's why I'd love to see both.
This looks great. I'm excited to see the rest of the prospects.
That said, I am annually perplexed by why Baseball Prospectus has dropped the most valuable and unique prospect predictor around: UPSIDE. Nate Silver used to do prospect projections using (I believe) the 10-year UPSIDE projections. Thus, it was the only real statistical projection tool for prospects on the market. He'd often compare these quantitative measures with the sort of qualitative evaluations seen above.
In any case, BP has this tool at its disposal, and yes, the readers could do the math themselves, but (a) that's a lot of work and (b) UPSIDE figures have consistently (since Nate's departure) been late to arrive and often way off the mark.
I'd love to see BP polish off and reissue the UPSIDE prospect projections.