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LynchMob
304 comments | 112 total rating | 0.37 average rating
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Baseball Prospectus http://bbp.cx/i/6915
LynchMob
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We love them, we will always love them. It's another day of sun ...

Mar 30, 2017 7:35 AM on San Diego Padres
 
LynchMob
(6915)
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Keep up the good work, Dave (and team)! Thanks!

 
LynchMob
(6915)
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Thanks, Mike! What does "I either must burn two reserve slots on two players I cannot disable or cut Kang" mean?

 
LynchMob
(6915)
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Mixed League ... how many teams?

Mar 27, 2017 10:36 AM on Not Cutting Corners
 
LynchMob
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Hear! Hear! Thank-you ...

 
LynchMob
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In the text, you say <span class="playerdef"><a href="http://www.baseballprospectus.com/card/card.php?id=51434">Adam Ottavino</a></span> $3, but in the table, you show him at $1.

Mar 25, 2017 9:06 AM on Fourth Edition, 2017
 
LynchMob
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From the "First Edition, 2017" on March 3rd ... In the tables below, you will find my recommended bid limits for AL-only, NL-only, and mixed leagues. For AL and NL-only, the bid limits are designed for 12 teams, $260 budgets per team, 14 hitters, and nine pitchers. For mixed leagues, the bid limits are for 15 teams, $260 budgets per team, 14 hitters, and nine pitchers.

Mar 25, 2017 9:02 AM on Fourth Edition, 2017
 
LynchMob
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Mike - THANKS for this! <span class="playerdef"><a href="http://www.baseballprospectus.com/card/card.php?id=109151">Jae-gyun Hwang</a></span> shows up 2 times when looking at NL only.

Mar 25, 2017 9:00 AM on Fourth Edition, 2017
 
LynchMob
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Yes, thanks!

Mar 14, 2017 3:36 PM on National League East
 
LynchMob
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I disagree that "anyone with a spot has some value". I do agree that "anyone who gets 150 <span class="statdef"><a href="http://www.baseballprospectus.com/glossary/index.php?search=IP" onmouseover="doTooltip(event, jpfl_getStat('IP'))" onmouseout="hideTip()">IP</span></a> has some value". But not everyone in a rotation on Opening Day will get 150 IPs ... Especially the dudes on the Padres ... they will be easy-come-easy-go ...

Mar 12, 2017 8:06 AM on Second Edition, 2017
 
LynchMob
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Has anyone calculated standings for the previous 4-5 such drafts?

Mar 06, 2017 5:13 PM on 2017 Rounds 1-2
 
LynchMob
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Just so you know, die hard Padres' fans (which might be redundant) remember Cedric from the .371/.467/.484 line he put up in Arizona Rookie ball in 2006! :-) Oh what might have been ...

Apr 07, 2016 2:36 PM on Week One
 
LynchMob
(6915)
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So, uh, when will you update for the Pollack injury? :-)

 
LynchMob
(6915)
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And so now Pollack ??? Down to $15ish? We're on our own :-)

Apr 02, 2016 9:29 AM on Fourth Edition, 2016
 
LynchMob
(6915)
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Thanks, Mike! Also, Venable sent to AAA ...

Apr 02, 2016 9:13 AM on Fourth Edition, 2016
 
LynchMob
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Why didn't you bid $44 on Goldy? I have struggled in a new league recently by getting caught up in the "oh, the prices are high, I have to overpay or be left behind" mentality ... I appreciate that, while you did not expect this outcome (a deep and balanced roster), you were obviously open to it ... it's where value came ... it can win. The team should start out in the middle of the pack (behind hot/healthy teams, ahead of cold/injured teams), then move up gradually as all teams hit a cold spell and/or incur injuries ... ie. your team should be less dependent upon the ups/downs of 2-3 "key players". It will be fun to see how it plays out ...

Mar 29, 2016 1:16 PM on Distributing Dollars
 
LynchMob
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(side note: I tried to determine this for myself, but the 1st and 2nd edition of your values are no longer available, ie. those pages now show only these updated values ... all good ... THANKS for your work on this for us!)

Mar 26, 2016 6:58 AM on Third Edition, 2016
 
LynchMob
(6915)
Comment rating: 1

For the NL, these changes are net +14 ... where did you take those $14 from?

Mar 26, 2016 6:27 AM on Third Edition, 2016
 
LynchMob
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Is there a place to see the order players were auctioned off? Who were you choices when you picked up Jungmann? I like your team ... a lot! Well done ...

Mar 23, 2016 10:14 AM on Tout Wars NL-Only
 
LynchMob
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The lack of love for <span class="playerdef"><a href="http://www.baseballprospectus.com/card/card.php?id=58495">Kirk Nieuwenhuis</a></span> (http://www.baseballprospectus.com/card/card.php?id=NIEUWENHU19870807A , even you didn't spell his name so that it would auto-link :-) ) is interesting ... not even taken during the LABR reserve draft ... he's currently listed as the starting CF ... i guess the majority thinks that negative earnings (ex. due to low BA) is worse than no playing time ...

Mar 12, 2016 10:36 AM on National League LABR
 
LynchMob
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This podcast starts mid-sentence ... on purpose?

 
LynchMob
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What is "OFP"?

Mar 18, 2015 8:10 AM on March 18, 2015
 
LynchMob
(6915)
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By my calc, NL LABR split 2228 for hitting (=71.4%) and 892 (= 28.6%) for pitching ... and it felt even more extreme than that! Looking forward to your analysis of that, Mike, thanks!

Mar 10, 2015 5:32 PM on LABR American League
 
LynchMob
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My league is switching to OBP this season ... finally! I think what finally convinced other owners in my league was when Tout Wars switched last season. Seems like Steve Gardner needs some lobbying to make the same change happen for LABR ... any recommendations on how to best do that? Any other ideas for how to get "the standard" changed from BA to OBP?

Feb 24, 2015 3:11 PM on First Edition, 2015
 
LynchMob
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LynchMob
(6915)
Comment rating: 1

Very much enjoyed this recap, and THANKS for the Hank Greenwald shout-out!

 
LynchMob
(6915)
Comment rating: 1

I was not watching the game ... checked an online box score and noticed that Kershaw had just hit in the top of the 7th ... that caught my eye ... I'm not a fan of using pitchers on short rest ... and it's always a tough decision to let any pitcher bat late in a close game ... I don't see/read anyone suggesting that Mattingly is *the* problem ... and it sure does seem like there's good data that suggests he's *a* part of the problem ("the problem" being that the Dodgers did not even reach the NLCS, let alone the WS, given their payroll).

 
LynchMob
(6915)
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#40 seems worth mentioning ... http://www.milb.com/news/article.jsp?ymd=20140815&content_id=89705886&fext=.jsp&vkey=news_milb&sid=milb

 
LynchMob
(6915)
Comment rating: 1

The silence after the McCutchen beaning is amazing. I'd actually be OK with no suspension of Delgado, as long as they did something (fine/suspension/both) to Towers and Gibson, as I believe Delgado was simply following orders. The problem is the orders ...

 
LynchMob
(6915)
Comment rating: 1

Thanks, GY ... well said ... Tony's way was focus'd and simple and to the point ... It's been a blast being his fan!

Jun 16, 2014 2:26 PM on Goodbye, No. 19
 
LynchMob
(6915)
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Thanks for the Franchy and Rymer updates!

May 19, 2014 2:38 PM on May 19, 2014
 
LynchMob
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Hamilrun today! http://www.sportsnetwork.com/merge/tsnform.aspx?c=sportsnetwork&page=mlb/scores/live/log.aspx?GAMEID=42077

 
LynchMob
(6915)
Comment rating: 1

Thanks for this! Can you get some independant scouting reports on Headley + Gyorko + Venable + Alonso? Those 4 guys vastly underperforming the 10% Pecota ... wow ... ouch ... Alonso is the biggest surprise to me as I gotten a good "amateur scouting report" from a friend who is now totally baffled and delusioned ... so what is a pro scout saying? I wonder if any other MLB teams are seeing any of these 4 guys as a good "buy low" candidate ...

 
LynchMob
(6915)
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Keyvius Sampson finally had a good outing ... 7 IP, 7 Ks, 2 hits + 2 walks, 1 R ... for AAA El Paso @ Fresno ... http://www.milb.com/milb/stats/stats.jsp?pos=P&sid=milb&t=p_pbp&pid=572102

 
LynchMob
(6915)
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Did you consider Kyle Blanks for this list?

May 06, 2014 3:43 PM on Fourth Edition
 
LynchMob
(6915)
Comment rating: 1

Shouldn't "his two low throws" count against him? In other words, would another player with pretty much all the same play opportunities, but with zero or one low throw have had a better defensive day? And so similarly, I'd think Rizzo scooping low throws should get him extra credit ... I guess the mechanism for that is that from his perspective those plays, rather than being "routine" were "even" ... perhaps that's the way to decide the value to dock Castro (ie. dock Castro the value added to Rizzo)?

 
LynchMob
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Super Cycle by Dan Robertson ... http://www.milb.com/milb/stats/stats.jsp?gid=2014_04_18_elpaaa_albaaa_1&t=g_box&sid=milb Caveats: Dan's probably not a prospect ... and it was at Albuquerque ... But I'm a fan of Dan ... Go Beavs! :-)

 
LynchMob
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Here you go ... http://www.milb.com/news/article.jsp?ymd=20140416&content_id=72340750&fext=.jsp&vkey=news_milb&sid=milb

 
LynchMob
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And answering my own question ... he had been sidelined since the end of spring training with an oblique injury.

 
LynchMob
(6915)
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Thanks for this look at the keeper leagues! It's the game I've been playing since "the book" came out in 1984 (note: just found this link is SI's archives: http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/vault/article/magazine/MAG1122055/index.htm ... it's been fun!) The variety of rules has pro's & con's ... seems like there's opportunity for standardization ... perhaps if one of the big stat services could figure out a way to incorporate a league vs league side-commpetation? Something based on league-total-stats ... or best-worst-team ... or worst-best team ... or ... If nothing else, having someone else figure out rules would eliminate the most unpleasant aspect of my home roto league = the annual gnashing of teeth at rule change proposals. Along those lines, this past off season was shocking ... after proposing a switch from BA to OBP for many years, this year it finally passed a vote! I can't tell if we are straying further from standard or if we are an early adopter of what will soon become standard for all ...

 
LynchMob
(6915)
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THANKS for MLU! Alex Guerrero's season debut was an AB in Australia ... why hasn't he played since then?

 
LynchMob
(6915)
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Rooting for Dan Robertson since 2008 ... Go Beavs!

 
LynchMob
(6915)
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My teams have players that I like (because I expect them to do well) ... and so I'm rarely interested to trade them away. So ... with your approach ... if you enjoy making trades, you've got that to look forward to. In fact, seems like you can turn it into win/win ... you can trade for players who are "fun"!

 
LynchMob
(6915)
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Romo looked fine last night

Apr 03, 2014 9:10 AM on Week One
 
LynchMob
(6915)
Comment rating: -1

There are many, many kinds of "fantasy leagues" ... one fundamental difference between the "expert leagues" mentioned here and typical "home leagues" is that the expert leagues are "redraft" and home leagues tend to be "keeper". So, the expert/redraft prices reflect the market value for only this season's stats ... whereas home/keeper prices reflect NPV = Net Present Value (a function of market value for this season, plus potential future seasons). I think you're question is asking about one relative to the other ... rookies will likely have more value in a home/keeper league, and that means less money left for "veterans" ... leading to a strategic opportunity for players in a keeper league: decide how much to go all-in for this year versus how much to sacrifice this season for future seasons. I hope I don't sound like Captain Obvious ...

Mar 25, 2014 9:59 AM on National League
 
LynchMob
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Grienke feeling something funny in calf ... http://www.latimes.com/sports/dodgersnow/la-sp-dn-zack-greinke-injury-update-20140228,0,3127325.story#axzz2uTmHHEKn ... so depending on when your draft is, that may be a factor (for you, and/or for others) ...

 
LynchMob
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Don't take this wrong, but my first reaction to this statement is that your league must not be "competitive". For example, do you think it's possible to take the draft results from CBS or LABR or Tout from last year and choose a pitching staff made up of only pitchers who went for $1 and end up with stats that accumulated enough pitching standings points to win the league (assuming top points in all the hitting categories)? Just off the top of my head, I don't think that's possible ... but I'd be interested to be shown otherwise ... And is it necessary? In other words, can't you buy top points in hitting and still have more than $1/pitcher left over?

 
LynchMob
(6915)
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With the caveat that you have many, interchangable, options at the $1 level. ie. all the players listed from the 277th position to the 490th position are at $1 ... take your pick ... good luck :-)

Feb 26, 2014 9:44 AM on First Edition
 
LynchMob
(6915)
Comment rating: -1

How long before you think OBP replaces BA as "standard 5x5"? Good to see Tout Wars make this switch ... why don't we all?

Feb 26, 2014 8:59 AM on First Edition
 
LynchMob
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Padres' writer thinks Seth Smith late season improvement might be due "touch-up Lasik surgery on his left eye" ... http://mlb.mlb.com/news/article/sd/padres-left-handed-batter-seth-smith-benefits-from-eye-surgery?ymd=20140223&content_id=68230614&vkey=news_sd "After hitting .241/.315/.367 through Aug. 17 last season, Smith returned six days later with better vision and better success at the plate. Smith hit .341/.431/.568 over his final 51 plate appearances of the regular season before hitting .313 in four playoff games."

 
LynchMob
(6915)
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Put me down as thinking Yonder Alonso will be higher on this list next year.

Jan 24, 2014 5:32 PM on Top 50 First Basemen
 
LynchMob
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I'm interested to understand what Steffan Segui means by saying both "About as ideal as can be" and "a bit of a stab and having a bit of a controlled herky-jerkyness" when describing Kershaw's Delivery/Mechanics?

Jan 16, 2014 12:21 PM on Clayton Kershaw
 
LynchMob
(6915)
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What does it mean that you "chose not to because I was a QB"?

 
LynchMob
(6915)
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The Ugly Kevin Quackenbush with his first Blamo outing ... 2 hits + 2 walks for 3 ERs in 0.1 IP ... I think it's his first time with an ERA over 1 in his pro career ... now at 1.08 for 33 IPs combined AA and AAA this season ...

 
LynchMob
(6915)
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Blanks has clearly passed Guzman now, imo ...

Jun 20, 2013 11:14 AM on Games of November 21-25
 
LynchMob
(6915)
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Fantastic, thanks! You had me up to "antebellum" ... good word :-) http://dictionary.reference.com/browse/antebellum?s=t

 
LynchMob
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Joe Ross didn't start his 2nd half well, with a poor IP at the MWL AS game ... http://www.milb.com/gameday/index.jsp?gid=2013_06_18_mdwafx_mdeafx_1&mode=gameday And I'm actually a bit encouraged to see Matt Andriese listed ... I didn't know his prospect stock had risen enough to fall :-)

Jun 20, 2013 9:33 AM on First Half Recap
 
LynchMob
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I went to the Oakland Coliseum many times in 70s and 80s and always enjoyed it ... good baseball games there!

 
LynchMob
(6915)
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I assume the A's like their brand ... in other words, I'm guessing the A's ownership does all those things mentioned above on purpose ... and it seems successful ... I bet they are profitable ... and they put a winning team on the field pretty often ... seems like win-win to me ... I'm a bit of an A's fan ... Let's Go A's ...

 
LynchMob
(6915)
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Will there be a 7th edition?

Apr 07, 2013 8:57 AM on Sixth Edition, March 26
 
LynchMob
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re: Chris Davis ... so far, so good! http://sports.yahoo.com/mlb/boxscore?gid=330403130

 
LynchMob
(6915)
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Thank-you!

Apr 02, 2013 7:03 PM on Jedd Gyorko
 
LynchMob
(6915)
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Thank-you! Well done! Love the still ... ah, confidence!

 
LynchMob
(6915)
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So, who did you eventually get for $2? Or did you leave that buck on the table?

Apr 01, 2013 12:54 PM on Sixth Edition, March 26
 
LynchMob
(6915)
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Certainly the worst franchise that has 2 championships in the past 20 years, but that's a much shorter list ...

Apr 01, 2013 10:54 AM on Jose Fernandez
 
LynchMob
(6915)
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Me, too ... simple as that. Hoffy's change-up was obviously devastating for many, many years ... and then you look at Pedro's peak and just say "Oh, my" ...

Apr 01, 2013 9:28 AM on Best Pitches
 
LynchMob
(6915)
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Gattis seems worth a buck in NL-only, right? Especially if keeper league ... is he that long of a long-shot? Perhaps ...

Mar 31, 2013 10:01 PM on Sixth Edition, March 26
 
LynchMob
(6915)
Comment rating: 0

Why have them pitch to JC hitters ... rather than their own minor leaguers?

 
LynchMob
(6915)
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What does "reclaim salaries" mean???

 
LynchMob
(6915)
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Jason ... when you say "Matt Adams ... Looks healthy" ... does that mean ... a) I've watched him play, and he looks healthy b) His stats look heathy on paper THANKS for MLU!!!

 
LynchMob
(6915)
Comment rating: 3

And a variant of YMMV seems to apply ... Your Morals May Vary ... just sayin' ...

 
LynchMob
(6915)
Comment rating: 5

I really don't know if "really" should be in that sentence ... if amphetamines did/do not enhance performance, then why are they taken? I think I see the difference between them ... I just don't think I'd describe it that way ... I think the implication is there is a "maximum natural level of performance" ... and steroids allow some players to boost that level ... and amphetamines allow some players to get to that level ...

 
LynchMob
(6915)
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A few comments from a good friend who's a long-time 'stro fan ... Yes I did enjoy this article! Met Jimmy last year at a book signing day at the juice box… He’s pretty gimpy – walks with a cane but a really nice person to talk to. Cedeno has the raw talent in spades but got into some funny business in off season back home – South America somewhere with women and blew his later career I think… Jose – was great to see him still with the team all these years at 1B coach… sad to see him replaced last year…. He is a great guy too – good bench presence for the kids… He could rake!! BTW – if Biggio had been in LA or NY or CHI he would have been first ballot… my 2 cents…

Feb 12, 2013 10:27 AM on Three Former Astros
 
LynchMob
(6915)
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This reminds me why these are 3 of my favorite players of all time ... a little love for the undervalued / underappreciated ... THANKS!

Feb 12, 2013 9:51 AM on Three Former Astros
 
LynchMob
(6915)
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Tell me what "scoring categories" means in the context of "mock draft"? Seriously, if it's "mock", then there's no scoring ... you just have to trust that everyone "mock drafting" cares about the same things ... and in theory that means "5x5" ... but what'd be really cool is a "league of drafts", ie. have a draft each week between now and opening day, with same set of expert owners, and then actually track how each of the owners teams do in the season ... or is that what this NFBC does? If so, then that is some data worth studying ...

 
LynchMob
(6915)
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THANKS for the De Paula sighting ... any idea where he's likely to be for 2013? At 22, he's easily still got time to get to the bigs ...

Dec 21, 2012 9:25 AM on Games of December 18
 
LynchMob
(6915)
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My favorite was Joe Table ... just simple ...

Dec 21, 2012 9:23 AM on Games of December 18
 
LynchMob
(6915)
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How is "Adys" pronounced?

 
LynchMob
(6915)
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It just hurts ... to laugh ... and to cry ...

 
LynchMob
(6915)
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Rooting big time for a Kyle Blanks comeback ... THANKS for the update!

Nov 26, 2012 9:02 AM on Games of November 21-25
 
LynchMob
(6915)
Comment rating: 2

Thanks for the WBC update! I'm getting interested again in the WBC ... I went to a USA vs Mexico game several years ago in Phoenix, and it was a blast! It's fun/interesting to see news from these qualifying games ... it's making it seem truly "Worldwide" ... and growing ... cool by me!

Nov 20, 2012 12:02 PM on Games of November 19
 
LynchMob
(6915)
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Thanks, Jason ... I continue to look forward to these highlights and your thoughts every day!

Nov 16, 2012 2:06 PM on Games of November 15
 
LynchMob
(6915)
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Having Bond and the Queen skydive into the Olympic opening ceremonies was fantastic and has reignited my interest in James Bond ... and now this article makes me even more interested to see Skyfall ... thanks!

 
LynchMob
(6915)
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Excited to see that Erlin's obviously healthy! Looking forward to seeing him compete for a roster spot at spring training ... which is how many days away?

Nov 12, 2012 4:30 PM on Games of November 9-11
 
LynchMob
(6915)
Comment rating: 1

Oh, and ain't Nate great! http://www.npr.org/2012/11/07/164631093/-statistician-nate-silver-scores-big-on-election-night

 
LynchMob
(6915)
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Yasmani :-( suspended for 50 games without pay by the Office of the Commissioner of Baseball after testing positive for testosterone http://sandiego.padres.mlb.com/news/article.jsp?ymd=20121107&content_id=40194350&vkey=news_sd&c_id=sd ... say it ain't so ...

 
LynchMob
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Also, looking forward to Part 2, which will presumably have some thoughts on Rymer Liriano :-)

 
LynchMob
(6915)
Comment rating: 1

The story behind how/why Grichuk was picked ahead of Trout is classic ... at least the version printed in the SI cover story about Trout ... they were simply yanking the chain of the scout who was apparently the only guy to see the real Trout ... well done!

 
LynchMob
(6915)
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How could Pence's "Triple Double" be scored a double? I initially thought it was E6 + E8 ... then saw the slo-mo of how/why Kozma got fooled ... so it was obviously single + E8 ... just a nit ... Here's the slo-mo ... http://webusers.npl.illinois.edu/~a-nathan/pob//PenceTripleDouble.html

 
LynchMob
(6915)
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I wonder if this ... Rule 3.15 Comment: For interference with a fielder attempting to field a batted or thrown ball by members of the team at bat or base coaches, who are excepted in Rule 3.15, see Rule 7.11. See also Rules 5.09(b), 5.09(f) and 6.08(d), which cover interference by an umpire, and Rule 7.08(b), which covers interference by a runner. ... can be construed to imply that 7.08(b) does also apply to "interference with a fielder attempting to field a batted or thrown ball by members of the team at bat"?

 
LynchMob
(6915)
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Oh no ... I'm a *NOT* a rules expert ... didn't mean to imply otherwise ... and am as interested as you are in what a rules expert has to say!

 
LynchMob
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Here's the play ... http://cjzero.com/gifs/HollidayScutaro.gif ... doesn't look to me like he hit dirt before the bag ... which makes me feel like it should be a rule violation ... and he should have been ejected and fined and suspended. His hindrance seems "intentional" to me ...

 
LynchMob
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MLB.tv was going to be my next question ... I would think that if the Padres "really cared", they would negotiate with MLB to remove the restriction ... ex. if you're a TW subscriber, then you can pay MLB.tv for Padre games. Is that unrealistic? My bottom line is trying to figure out why the market forces do not appear to be working ... or are they? Is somebody leaving money on the table? Or is that being misjudged?

 
LynchMob
(6915)
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So ... What is the % of households that can not choose Cox or DirecTV? Any figures for how many Padres fans switched from Time Warner to either Cos or DirecTV? (not enough to worry TW, obviously) Why did you choose to not switch to DirecTV and watch Padre games at home?

 
LynchMob
(6915)
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See what happens without Ducksnorts!!! Here's my question ... it sounds like you use Time Warner for your cable TV ... can you not switch to Cox Communications or DirecTV if you wanted to?

 
LynchMob
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Thanks for the Jeudy Valdez mention ... made me go look for AFL box scores ... http://mlb.mlb.com/milb/stats/stats.jsp?gid=2012_10_15_perwin_msswin_1&t=g_box&sid=l119

Oct 16, 2012 8:40 AM on Games of October 15
 
LynchMob
(6915)
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What does "89-61 overall" mean (in comment for Goodwin)?

Oct 11, 2012 2:05 PM on Games of October 10
 
LynchMob
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GY ... how can you resist a Kurt Bevacqua ('84 WS) kiss mention?

 
LynchMob
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Maybe Altuve will win the 2012 Mike Hargrove Award ... all this article mentions is that Carlos Pena won it in 2011 ...

 
LynchMob
(6915)
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I went to a WBC game several years ago ... USA vs Mexico ... at what I think was Bank One Ballpark in Phoenix ... and it was VERY FUN! The Mexican fans there were a blast, very spirited ... and it helped get the USA fans into it also ...

 
LynchMob
(6915)
Comment rating: 2

And that difference does coincide with an adjustment he made in his hitting mechanics ... http://www.nctimes.com/blogsnew/sports/padres/padres-maybin-still-ironing-out-adjustment/article_5d8cf0cb-e2e0-5b10-b527-c1709cac966d.html

 
LynchMob
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Indeed, his pre- vs post-ASB splits are remarkable ... http://sports.yahoo.com/mlb/players/7684/splits Pre-All Star 288 .212 .287 .309 .596 Post-All Star179 .307 .359 .425 .784

 
LynchMob
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I wish there was a way to click "+1" on pages like this ... THANKS for the blurb!

 
LynchMob
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I wish there was a way to click "+1" on pages like this ... THANKS for the blurb!

Sep 18, 2012 11:41 AM on Petco vs Coors
 
LynchMob
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Thanks for the Joe Ross mention! Good to see him get a post-season promotion (from Short-Season Eugene to Low-A Ft Wayne) and then do so well ...

Sep 13, 2012 2:05 PM on Games of September 12
 
LynchMob
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Thanks ... interesting ...

 
LynchMob
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I've been an A's fan since moving to the area in 1974 ... lots of up's & down's ... a fun ride! Let's Go A's! Any talk of a Moneyball II movie?

 
LynchMob
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Yeison Asencio, RF, Padres (22) (Low-A Ft Wayne): 3-for-5, 3 R, HR, 4 RBI ... still getting some prospect-buzz despite no longer being Yoan Alcantara ... http://www.utsandiego.com/news/2012/sep/08/any-name-yeison-ascencio-still-prospect/ ... he's the first Single-A Fort Wayne player ever to lead the Midwest League in hitting -- batting .323 with 21 doubles, four triples, eight homers, 61 RBI and 47 runs scored in 92 games. But he’s no longer Yoan Alcantara. And he’s 2 ½ years older than he was in the fall of 2011. ... and he'll play one more series as the Tincaps advance to the Midwest League finals.

Sep 11, 2012 9:25 AM on Games of September 10
 
LynchMob
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When do you think he would have made his MLB debut, had he been free to do so earlier? ie. he's clearly making his debut at age 26 for different reasons than Chris Sabo ... and so it seems reasonable to expect his projections to be different ...

 
LynchMob
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Strasburg's 23 ... that seems "young" to me ... what's your definition of "young"?

 
LynchMob
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Thanks, GY! Casey seems like a key piece of the Padres future ... which starts ... NOW! :-)

Aug 30, 2012 12:24 PM on Casey Kelly's Debut
 
LynchMob
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http://www.contracostatimes.com/giants/ci_21427514/neil-armstrong-and-one-giant-swing-by-gaylord

 
LynchMob
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I was at Joe Ross' start last night ... and it felt opposite to how cjhgarmon describe's Bundy's start (comment above) ... sure the results were very good ... but the most common strike was a foul ball ... so I just didn't get a feeling of "overpowering" ... which is what I was hoping for when I heard he was starting the game ... the scoreboard radar readings were consistently 91-93 and I saw 94/95 a couple of times, and none of the other pitchers in the game had readings that high ...

 
LynchMob
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re: Maybe they’re fun for you ... yes, they are fun for me ... thanks!

Aug 29, 2012 12:49 PM on Measuring Hustle
 
LynchMob
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Thanks ... well said ... a very good way to remember that day ...

 
LynchMob
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I wonder who with the Padres saw the Adrian that we see today? Or was he a throw-in in that trade with the Rangers? And how did the Angels find Mike Trout? Sure wish he's have been drafted #3 that year (instead of #21/22) ... sigh ...

 
LynchMob
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Thanks! Love the topic ... as an ardent NL fan, I love pitchers hitting ... am a huge fan of Owings + Marquis and every time a pitcher connects for a HR ...

 
LynchMob
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And the phrase "final rookie season in the majors" makes my face krinkle ... but I understand the awkwardness of the concept ...

 
LynchMob
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This still isn't right ... In Minor League Baseball, the DH rule (in its MLB form) is in place only in Double-A and Triple-A, when both teams are NL affiliates (and, in the PCL, when both teams have agreed to let their pitchers hit). ... is it? I think you're trying to say that the DH rule is *not* in place in Double-A and Triple-A if/when it's a game between NL affiliates ... right?

 
LynchMob
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Comment rating: 5

Reminds me that in 1989, Ken Griffey Jr finished 3rd on ROY voting ... then in 1995 Marty Cordova won the ROY, and he is 4 months older than KGJ ...

Aug 16, 2012 8:47 AM on Forever Young
 
LynchMob
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I saw Juan Eichelberger pitch for the Amarillo Gold Sox in 1977 ... his opposing pitcher that day was Bob Welch, pitching for San Antonio (with Jeff Leonard in that lineup) ... still got the scorecard ... it reminds me fun it is to watch minor leaguers!

Aug 09, 2012 7:46 AM on Saved by the Rule
 
LynchMob
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I didn't know Ek transfered out of OSU before 2006 ... that means he played with Elsbury in 2005? I sure enjoyed watching Dallas Buck and Kevin Gunderson (who was their closer, not a starter) and Jonah Nickerson (and Darwin Barney and Mitch Canham) ... Yup, that was a great run ... thanks for the reminder!

 
LynchMob
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Josh did warn us ... "It may be a small thing to you" ... I, too, am glad it isn't something even bigger ... there's a lot to like about Josh Hamilton ... I'm rooting for him to get a WS ring ...

Aug 07, 2012 8:02 AM on When the Time is Right
 
LynchMob
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I thought doing that triggered some auto-eject mechanism ... isn't that MLB policy? Just askin' ...

 
LynchMob
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Perhaps try HP MagCloud? http://www.magcloud.com/

 
LynchMob
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http://articles.latimes.com/2004/jun/13/sports/sp-ryan13 ... sez 235 pitches ... but B-R.com has no pitch counts? http://www.baseball-reference.com/boxes/CAL/CAL197406140.shtml ... seems odd that the pitching coach kept track on a hand-held clicker ... how/why does B-R.com's page for Koufax in 1960 have pitch counts ... http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/gl.cgi?id=koufasa01&t=p&year=1960 ... but the page for Ryan's 1974 doesn't? http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/gl.cgi?id=ryanno01&t=p&year=1974

Jul 19, 2012 5:17 PM on Sandy Koufax, May 1960
 
LynchMob
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Has anyone thrown 193 pitches in a game since Koufax?

Jul 19, 2012 9:10 AM on Sandy Koufax, May 1960
 
LynchMob
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GY ... I wish you'd picked Sean Burroughs over Reuben Rivera ... actually, anybody over RR ... Khalil? One of the JJ's (Trujillo or Furmaniak)? How old is Dave Staton these days?

 
LynchMob
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OK ... check that ... 1996 :-)

Jul 10, 2012 4:42 PM on Trying One's Patience
 
LynchMob
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My first summer in Corvallis was 1995 ... after reading about a Corvallis High pitching phenom, I went to see him pitch for the local American Legion team (the Marketmen) ... and he was AMAZING!!! In fact, he's still pitching in MLB today ... Kevin Gregg ... has been fun to follow his progress for 18 summers now! Go Spartans! Go Raiders! Go Knights! Go Beavs :-)

Jul 10, 2012 4:37 PM on Trying One's Patience
 
LynchMob
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I think more people in Portland go to Powell's Books than the public library ... but they probably don't have microfilm ...

Jul 10, 2012 8:00 AM on Trying One's Patience
 
LynchMob
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I'm not a "young folk" ... I'm 53 ... and I think a world where every call is right is better ... I think the game itself is better when there are no wrong calls ... I think players who know the truth and do something to "convince the umpire that something [untrue] happened" are sorta cheating (ie. that's not a skill I admire, nor want to promote). The mystique of baseball to me is how good the players are ... and I like when their efforts are rewarded based on what truly happened ... and that mystique is diminished by wrong calls ... that human element is diminished by wrong calls ...

Jul 09, 2012 6:57 PM on Ending the Empire
 
LynchMob
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Thanks again, Bradford ... for the writing before the asterisks and after the asterisks. OT ... my earliest memory of the "minor leagues" was noticing on Lou Brock's baseball card that he played in St Cloud, MN ... http://www.baseball-reference.com/minors/player.cgi?id=brock-001lou ... now I have 2 reasons to think fondly of that town!

 
LynchMob
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You mighta coulda gone to see Oliver Perez pitch for the M's ??? http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=17571 ... who knew???

Jul 04, 2012 7:22 AM on Ready, Set, No!
 
LynchMob
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Hey, as of today, Tate is hitting .300 at High-A ... just the facts ... (and a few hopes ... still ...)

 
LynchMob
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What does "big J2 signing" mean?

Jul 03, 2012 10:51 AM on Monday Morning Ten Pack
 
LynchMob
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I've been to plenty of "sold out" games and found tickets ... in fact, I've never gone to a game and turned away due to the threat of "sold out" ... but I guess you were already 35 minutes late ... eh, maybe the scalper tickets would be pretty cheap by then :-) Hultzen only went 4 innings ... so you'd have missed most of that, I s'pose ... Moyer went 5 ... FTW!!! http://www.milb.com/milb/stats/stats.jsp?sid=t529&gid=2012_06_28_lvgaaa_tacaaa_1&cid=529&t=g_box Nonetheless, a very interesting matchup ... wish I had a ticket stub from that one :-) ps. Always love it when you take the road less traveled!

Jul 03, 2012 10:24 AM on Ready, Set, No!
 
LynchMob
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http://www.baseball-reference.com/leagues/NL/2012-standard-batting.shtml ... sez ... Michael Cuddyer 2012 .260/.314/.484 100 OPS+

Jul 03, 2012 7:45 AM on 100 OPS+
 
LynchMob
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Lots of reasons to think of Omar's defense as legendary, imo ... as seen here ... http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ChR2gyOg-lQ ... but it's the play vs Dodgers that starts at the 1:01 mark on that video that stands out to me ... because he gave the 3B-man a heads-up before the play that he'd do it! Think about that! Maybe Omar-the-career isn't HOF-worthy ... but that play sure is!

Jun 28, 2012 4:18 PM on The Eternal Shortstop
 
LynchMob
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Go Padres! :-)

 
LynchMob
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*REALLY* enjoyed this article ... thanks! Keep us up to date on Rizzo ... and yourself :-)

 
LynchMob
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Oops, check that ... Noel is at Lake Elsinore.

 
LynchMob
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If you like DeShields at 51 SBs, how about Rico Noel now at 53 with Ft Wayne! http://www.milb.com/milb/stats/stats.jsp?sid=milb&t=p_pbp&pid=592596

 
LynchMob
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I saw a Jered Weaver start in the High-A California League ... and he totally spiral'd out of control ... it was bizarre and unforgetable to watch, given his pedigree ...

 
LynchMob
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Comment rating: 1

Sounds to me like his potential has been down-graded ... I know I have lessened my hopes ... and feel stupid for holding on to them for as long as I have ...

Jun 21, 2012 10:05 AM on All Gap Team
 
LynchMob
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"ever *been* swept at home" ...

 
LynchMob
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The folks a Friarhood take a stab at a Vedder Cup logo ... http://www.friarhood.com/voice-of-the-fan/2009-vedder-cup-vedder-cup-vedder-cup.html ... well done! So, question for you, Geoff ... has either team ever swept at home and come back to defend the Vedder Cup?

 
LynchMob
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Yes, we care! Padres take game 1 of the 2012 Vedder Cup Series! http://sports.yahoo.com/mlb/boxscore?gid=320612112

 
LynchMob
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re: Rizzo ... then there's this (also from CBS) ... Cubs first base prospect Anthony Rizzo left Tuesday's game with Triple-A Iowa after suffering an apparent right leg injury, according to the Des Moines Register. Rizzo suffered the injury when he slid into the dugout fence while attempting to catch a popup. The severity of the injury is unclear. He was also hit by a pitch on the right arm during Monday's game, but didn't miss any playing time. Rizzo is hitting a staggering .370 with 22 homers and 57 RBI in 59 games for Iowa, however, there is still no timetable for his promotion to the majors, according to CBSSports.com Baseball Insider Jon Heyman.

 
LynchMob
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Comment rating: 1

I know I'm VERY fuzzy on this concept ... but I hope it's because the concept itself is fuzzy ... doesn't some % of players get tag'd "Super 2" each season? So the game is for teams to wait to call up their top prospects until enough non-prospects have been called up to make it likely that they are the ones tag'd "Super 2" ... right? So my guess is that KG's comment is that all the best guessing / calculating done by folks with the full/big picture (including Rizzo's service time from last year) says that in about 2 weeks, Rizzo's very likely to NOT be a "Super 2" ...

 
LynchMob
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And right on queue, he makes BA's Prospect Hot Sheet this week as the "Blast from the Past" :-) http://www.baseballamerica.com/today/prospects/prospect-hot-sheet/2012/2613546.html

 
LynchMob
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I'd guess that Barmes did *not* hit a "ground rule double" ... but rather the much, much more common "automatic double" ... Just a pet peeve of mine ... I wonder if anyone actually tracks how many actual "ground rule doubles" are hit each year ... any?

 
LynchMob
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Lirano with HR #3 yesterday ... http://www.milb.com/milb/stats/stats.jsp?sid=milb&t=g_box&gid=2012_06_07_lesafa_hdmafa_1

 
LynchMob
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re: Gyroko ... I'm hoping they are just in a "don't rush him" mood ... perhaps also want to see what Forsythe does with some healthy playing time and Headley can't be replaced ... so maybe they are waiting for a good trade offer on one of those guys?

 
LynchMob
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Ah, and here's a Sickles comment ... http://www.minorleagueball.com/2005/6/10/171329/168 Clement over Tulowitzki was the last-second surprise of the draft.

 
LynchMob
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And here's 2 applicable comments from another thread at minorleagueball.com ... http://www.minorleagueball.com/2005/6/7/91511/10141#2280158 Clement I may be wrong, but it seems that Seattle is going for a need, rather than taking the best player available. Not that Clement is bad. by dduncan on Jun 7, 2005 10:07 AM EDT up I Think It's Multiple Needs They're thin at catcher, don't have many power hitters coming up in the minors, and the power they have at the major league level is almost all right-handed... Clement addresses each of those concerns. You keep using that word. I do not think it means what you think it means. by ESiegrist on Jun 7, 2005 10:33 AM EDT

 
LynchMob
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Comment rating: 1

Here's the mock-draft from John Sickles' web site ... http://www.minorleagueball.com/2005/6/5/135855/4033 ... which had Clement going #4 ... so it doesn't seem like picking Clement with #3 was "a bad decision at the time".

 
LynchMob
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Comment rating: 2

Your first 8 players got drafted in the first 8 spots ... I say that's well done :-) Especially when you said "there is a clear top eight players for teams" ... nailed it!

Jun 04, 2012 5:24 PM on 2012 Mock Draft
 
LynchMob
(6915)
Comment rating: 3

Fantastic article ... thanks! Something's wrong with the Harper pitch counts ... sure seems unlikely that Harper got 208 fastballs in 65 PAs from 5/15 thru 5/30 ... 208+86+110 = 404 pitches in 65 PAs = 6.2 pitches per PA ... way different from the 4.14 reported ...

 
LynchMob
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I'm seeing the Indians' 1-day change at +4.3% and the Tigers at -3.5% ... hmmm ... you're referring to the WinDiv% ... so you must have saved yesterday's ... what are the specifics in this case? Does sound odd ...

May 25, 2012 12:38 PM on Friday, May 25
 
LynchMob
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Can PECOTA be given Orlando Hudson's and Alexi Amarita's year-to-date stats and tell us which of them is more likely to hit better for the remainder of the 2012 season? ie. Assuming same number of PAs from here on out, which of the two is more likely to perform best?

May 18, 2012 11:40 AM on Sunk in the Hudson
 
LynchMob
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In a season, or for a career? :-)

May 14, 2012 11:07 PM on Monday Morning Ten Pack
 
LynchMob
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Hmmm ... then a side benefit looks like it might be that I could see Dave Pease's age as well :-)

 
LynchMob
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Comment rating: 1

Here's an idea for Dave Pease, or who ever does the web programming for the site ... when the system auto-creates a link when it recognizes the name of a player in a comment, have the code also auto-create a "tool tip" that has the player's age ... then Kevin doesn't have to do anything and no one has to click ...

 
LynchMob
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Jace Peterson taken off the field last night after a collision with the pitcher ...

 
LynchMob
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or Jaff Decker

May 07, 2012 2:19 PM on Monday Morning Ten Pack
 
LynchMob
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There's room for Gillaspie now ... Sandoval out with a hand injury ... so ... we'll see!

 
LynchMob
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If you click on a players name which is bold&blue, then it takes you to his player card, and at the bottom of that are links to all the articles he's mentioned in ... for example, for Dylan Bundy ... http://www.baseballprospectus.com/card/card.php?id=70753 ... that's how I found the comp you are looking for. (And note that if/when a players name is spelled out, it turns into such a link for his player card, I think/hope)

 
LynchMob
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I think this is it ... http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=16522 ... comp's Bundy to Ben Sheets.

 
LynchMob
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If this is what Field F/X is or turns out to be, I think that will be a good thing ... a less subjective determination of "difficult plays" ...

 
LynchMob
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Comment rating: 1

My first reaction is to wonder how analysis of vectors can be "all that matters" when those vectors are fielder-position independant. In other words, it sure seems to me that a bad fielder can turn any vector into a routine play by being positioned at the pointy end of the vector ... I like the subjective concept of "difficult play" ... I would love it to be added to the box score! How many per game do we think there are? Should the baseline for a "difficult play" be an average fielder or the worst fielder?

 
LynchMob
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Love the bottom line ... looking forward to the Darvish/Cespedes match up ... truly "major league"!

 
LynchMob
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Love the link re: simoleons ... above & beyond ... thanks!

 
LynchMob
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Corey Brock, the Padres' guy at mlb.com, has a comment about Venable that's very consistent with what you've said here ... http://coreybrock.mlblogs.com/2012/04/02/one-last-look-at-spring-training/

 
LynchMob
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It feels like if the Padres trade him, he'll do the Shane Mack trick and get real good for someone else ...

 
LynchMob
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Julio Franco was my Moyer (last player older than me in MLB) ... I was happy he played as long as he did ...

 
LynchMob
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mlb.com is saying Quentin might only miss 10 days of the regular season ... http://mlb.mlb.com/news/article.jsp?ymd=20120318&content_id=27403146&vkey=news_mlb&c_id=mlb ... and it's good to know that Bud Black has "some balls in the air" ... I'm rooting for Blanks to grab this op!

Mar 19, 2012 12:17 PM on Monday, March 12
 
LynchMob
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Thanks for this ... Drew seems a player worth noting ... he was a favorite prospect since I saw him play at Eugene in 2007 ... not the best video, but it gives you an idea ... http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=68Gvxr9nu_M Sigh, what coulda been ... we the fans are missing what coulda been ... and Drew, as you say, is missing out an promising career ... I hope he does coach ... seems like he'd be able to motivate as well as teach!

Mar 13, 2012 6:14 PM on Tuesday, March 13
 
LynchMob
(6915)
Comment rating: 3

Was there an article posted which reviewed the 2011 PECOTA projections? For example, what % of players exceeded their "2011 PECOTA Weighted Mean Projections"? (question: should it have been 50%?) Another type of question I'm interested in ... what % of players which PECOTA said had a 5% chance of "Breakout" actually had a Breakout? Thanks for PECOTA!

 
LynchMob
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Comment rating: 1

GY dropping the George Arias / Ruben Rivera bomb on Bochy? Ya, that's good local knowledge :-) And Ferrin's pick of Latos seems right-on to me ... his "maturity" issues have been overstated, imo ... the reality being that he's simply a "character". As a Padre fan, I'm sad to see him go ...

 
LynchMob
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The trenches of the Western Front can make a man wacky ... keep it up! Well, actually, the fewer words, even in jest, about Manny, the better ...

 
LynchMob
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It will be interesting to see how long it takes Astros fans to accept / embrace the AL, and hence the DH ... the 2 fans I know have both already denounced their fanship ... I hope it takes a long time ... ie. I hope the Astros franchise takes a big hit in attendance and local media interest/revenues ... but I doubt it ... I think the Astros move to the AL will be a test case for the longer term inevitability of the NL succumbing to the DH ... which will be a sad day, indeed ...

 
LynchMob
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I've always liked your world, GY ... keep it comin'! Also, Stocktonians did post a reply to Forbes ... http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=afb3ZqFhpQ0 :-)

 
LynchMob
(6915)
Comment rating: 4

Alan Wiggins left a notable legacy in the sports world ... http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Candice_Wiggins RIP Alan ... 1984 was a very good year ...

 
LynchMob
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My best friend is more baseball-savy than me ... and one of my favorite memories associates Reggie Smith to 3-1 fastballs ... we had the game-of-the-week on TV ... Reggie comes to the plate with ducks on the pond and my best friend announces "they better not throw him a 3-1 fastball" ... and Reggie proceeds to work the count to 3-1 ... and, yup, the pitcher threw him a fastball that Reggie clocked for a long HR ... just flat out fun!

 
LynchMob
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Thanks, DandyDan ... I'm with you ... I was very soured on JD Drew when he demanded $10 million ... I'm not at all a Philly fan ... so I'm just saying that he made himself a persona non grata beyond Philly also ...

Jan 25, 2012 11:10 PM on Wednesday, January 25
 
LynchMob
(6915)
Comment rating: 1

Perpetually a Padre fan ... no matter how much of a mess they are ... can you explain that? So many coulda/woulda/shoulda names in this article ... I lived and died with all of 'em ... and more! No mention of Ben Davis ... Matt Bush ... Dave Staton ... Good thing we have Tony Gwynn in our history ... and always will! :-)

 
LynchMob
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"pitch"? no ... just meant "play" ...

 
LynchMob
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Padre fans remember Ramon :-( I saw McMullen pitch for the Senators during the Frank Howard / Ed Brinkman / Joe Coleman era ... which set the tone for me being a Padre fan after moving to San Diego in 1968 and attending their Opening Opening Day in 1969 :-)

 
LynchMob
(6915)
Comment rating: 3

Thank-you for this article, I enjoyed it. It makes me feel sad that my favorite team, the San Diego Padres, have been guilty of bestowing high honor on a "magic moment" ... by retiring Steve Garvey's #6 ... and thereby furthering it as acceptable practice :-(

Jan 13, 2012 7:45 AM on Jack Morris in Motion
 
LynchMob
(6915)
Comment rating: 1

Yes, I'm interested on your opinion of this also, KG ... THANKS for this VERY interesting article!

Jan 11, 2012 11:21 AM on Do Quad-A Players Exist?
 
LynchMob
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Comment rating: 1

In my experience, the $1 players who turn a profit are the one that should have had $2 bid on them. In other words, most of the time when I get down to $1 for max bid, I still have players on my sheet who I think are worth $2 or more. I'd be interested to see what LABR profits have been for $2 players? That seems a "sweet spot" to me ...

 
LynchMob
(6915)
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Totally agree ... one big key for me has always been to avoid the "bad pitcher". The way I typically do that is to find the setup men who will earn a couple of bucks ... which is VERY common ... ie. it seems very easy for a good setup man to earn more than $1 of value.

 
LynchMob
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Comment rating: 0

Any thoughts on minor league outfielder Kyung-Min Na, 20 ... send to the Padres in the Rizzo+Cates for Cashner+Na trade

Jan 06, 2012 12:08 PM on Cubs Top 11 Prospects
 
LynchMob
(6915)
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I'd be interested to be in a "mock draft league" ... ie. a league of folks who do a weekly "mock draft" that gets entered into a scoring/standings system which tallies results at the end of the season ...

Dec 22, 2011 1:16 PM on I Cannot Tell a Lie
 
LynchMob
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re: Towers being a "man of his word" ... I went to a BP Pizza Feed at Petco several years ago where Towers was the speaker ... it was stunning to hear him talk ... he was open and frank and, it sure seemed to me, honest. He seems to be successful as a GM without being sly/shady/coy ... it was refreshing and inspiring.

Dec 14, 2011 1:18 PM on Win Now, Win Later
 
LynchMob
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I'm *far* from an expert ... in fact, I'm a Padre fan, which certainly clouds my judgement ... but I'd bet Belnome gets some ABs with the Padres and some non-1B appearances in the field. Perhaps only during September ...

 
LynchMob
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In general, what are the odds that a player currently in the system but not in the Top 20 (21 if you count "the sleeper") will reach the majors and earn WAR / Win Shares / Whatever? And how do you think that would compare to this Padre list now? I think the list of guys (like Domoromo, Brach, Oramas, Barbato, Belnome, Hagerty, Robertson, CDecker) not on the list is long enough and quality enough that it seems likely at least one of them will earn WAR / Win Shares / Whatever in MLB before it's all said and done ...

 
LynchMob
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Oops, sorry that messed up the age ... LaHair has been 4A thru age 28 and will play 2012 at age 29 ... http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/l/lahaibr01.shtml

Nov 04, 2011 11:29 AM on Wednesday Ten-Pack
 
LynchMob
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Fielder was only 26 when he came back ... 4 years younger than LaHair will be in 2012. Hmmm ... who is a comp for best-case-scenario? ie. Who has been a 4A-type thru age 29 ... then at age 30 turned into a .270/.340/.450 hitter over a couple of 500 PA seasons?

Nov 04, 2011 11:27 AM on Wednesday Ten-Pack
 
LynchMob
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Beautiful ... thank-you!

Nov 04, 2011 9:37 AM on Hard Truths at Triple-A
 
LynchMob
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Our hero liked the movie ... http://www.businessweek.com/finance/watching-moneyball-with-bill-james-09222011.html

Sep 29, 2011 9:16 AM on Moneyball for All
 
LynchMob
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I saw the movie on opening night (Friday) ... really liked it. Agree with you when you say "It's Hollywood" ... to the point where I don't think the movie is about the same thing that the book is about ... the movie is about Billy Beane, and perhaps even a charicture of Billy Beane, in that it's about a man who chooses "family" over a big pay day (how can Hollywood resist that :-)). So, if you start there, then no longer are "The daughter scenes ... a complete waste of time" ... rather they are at the core of the story ... that some people prefer even broken family and work family to life in the even faster lane and brighter spot lights. Yes, it's simplistic ... that's Hollywood! Even the book did not capture all the complexities. The research and writings of the past 30 years, and the evolution of the biz of baseball more recently, have been very interesting to follow ... and the book, Moneyball, is certainly a part of that. The movie? Well, it was just fun to hear Bill King and Ray Fosse and see scenes of the Oakland Coliseum and Fenway Park from vantages that I don't other get to experience. Hey, it's easy to be romantic about baseball :-)

Sep 28, 2011 6:50 AM on Moneyball for All
 
LynchMob
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As a former softball pitcher, I'd also suggest a rule that we had in one of my leagues ... any ball hit back at the pitcher is an out :-)

 
LynchMob
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Here's a comment about Spangenberg from a friend in Eugene ... Spangenberg is a hydroplane among row boats. Does everything quicker and faster than other players around him. Real, real small sample. But the last time I had this kind of first impression of a fledgling Emerald was Mat Latos. Yeah, I know Cory plays 2B and Mat pitches....but the tools pop out no matter where they play. ... and if "he's not 27-for-69", then what is he? :-)

 
LynchMob
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Ya, I'm still waiting for Holliday to touch home plate :-)

 
LynchMob
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Garvey's #6 on the Petco wall appalls me :-( Perhaps if he's part of the group that buys the Dodgers, maybe then they'll make the similar mistake of retiring his number and give the Padres cause to remove it from their wall? I know that's unprecidented (and classless), so what I'm trying to figure out is a way to get Garvey to request that the Padres unretire his number ... hoping ... hoping ... hoping ...

 
LynchMob
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I'm a fan of Beemer Weems' glove ... hope his bat gets on lists like this in the future ...

 
LynchMob
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Lots o' Padres today ... yea! I was hoping the Guzman callup would trickle down to a Gyroko promotion ... it's overdue! ... for Darnell also, it seems. How do teams decide when to be patient? It always seems a tough call with pro's & con's ... for a recent "con" example, see Anthony Rizzo (and, yes, I understand it's too early to draw any conclusions ... I'm just saying that he's struggling more than I/we had hoped based on his AAA success).

 
LynchMob
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There's hopes amongst the amatuer fandome (ex. me) that Darnell could sneak out to RF so that Blanks can play LF. The other thought which keeps getting bandied about is one of them moving to 2B ...

 
LynchMob
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re: Gyorko ... I think we're learning that the Padres value having him play in the All-Star game, perhaps? Is there any/much value to that? I guess we're also learning that the Padres feel they can be patient with their promotions. re: "Red Sox are on the verge of fixing" another pitching prospect with control problems ... wonder if they'll take a shot at the recently DFA'd Aaron Poreda?

 
LynchMob
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I *love* this! I love the list! So ... Ruth was a better bunter than Hornsby and Gerhig ... how cool is that!!! I assume the issue is not with the individual scorings, but rather the weightings ... how would you adjust the weightings to get the results you think are right? I wonder why Jackie Robinson and Splendid Splinter get ding'd for "Hit and Run"? I wonder who 21-100 were? I wonder who'd be the Top 20 today?

 
LynchMob
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Oh, and I meant to ask what "TCF" means???

 
LynchMob
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Thanks for this ... more like it would be interesting!

 
LynchMob
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Can you show me a picture of Cousins out the baseline? He's certainly not out of the baseline here ... http://mit.zenfs.com/217/2011/05/Cousins-Posey.jpg

 
LynchMob
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I think Johnny Bench disagrees with your view of the events ... http://content.usatoday.com/communities/dailypitch/post/2011/06/johnny-bench-comments-on-buster-posey-scott-cousins-collision/1 ... and so do I.

 
LynchMob
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I think Johnny Bench agrees with you ... http://content.usatoday.com/communities/dailypitch/post/2011/06/johnny-bench-comments-on-buster-posey-scott-cousins-collision/1 ... but I bet you two disagree about how to make that happen. I think Johnny's got it right: teach the catchers how to stay out of the way!

 
LynchMob
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I'm interested to know how to pronounce "Szczur".

 
LynchMob
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And I don't have the data either ... but Josh Hamilton's recent injury comes to mind on the other side ... It just seems to me that the consensus of baseball insiders (except for Sebean) is that home plate collisions are "part of the game". And my read of the rules supports the position that catchers can and should get out of the way ... Here's a note to Rule 7.06(b) ... http://mlb.mlb.com/mlb/downloads/y2011/Official_Baseball_Rules.pdf NOTE: The catcher, without the ball in his possession, has no right to block the pathway of the runner attempting to score. The base line belongs to the runner and the catcher should be there only when he is fielding a ball or when he already has the ball in his hand.

Jun 08, 2011 11:09 AM on Speaking from Experience
 
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http://content.usatoday.com/communities/dailypitch/post/2011/06/johnny-bench-comments-on-buster-posey-scott-cousins-collision/1 ... which seems to agree with Billy Beane's approach: stay out of the way!

Jun 08, 2011 10:19 AM on Speaking from Experience
 
LynchMob
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To me, Billy Beane's approach suggests otherwise ... A's general manager Billy Beane recently pressed his catcher, Kurt Suzuki, to avoid contact.

Jun 08, 2011 10:15 AM on Speaking from Experience
 
LynchMob
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I'll go the opposite way ... I think Posey's play was "dirty" ... he was the one breaking the rules (obstructing the plate without the ball), creating a dangerous situation. OTOH, I do like this comment from Duane Kuiper ... "I stood out there defenseless at second base for 10 years (as a player) until they changed the rules about guys sliding with the sole intent of taking somebody out. So they can change it at home plate, too." http://www.sfgate.com/cgi-bin/article.cgi?f=/c/a/2011/05/27/MN6J1JLDD8.DTL OTOH, you want to change the rules so that *this* will never happen again? http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xgr7aeFjNFk ... Wow, that's a *fun* video! Here's a question ... on a play like in that video (where JT Snow crashing into Pudge Rodriquez at the end of their 2003 NLDS series ... should Pudge have been called for "obstruction" and JT Snow ruled safe? Perhaps if umps make that call more often, then catcher behavior changes, becomes less risky (for themselves *and* the baserunner).

 
LynchMob
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I'd still like to know if there's any value to "dugout steps"? Aren't they more of a liability than a benefit? Why aren't they outlawed? Hey, I've got a new pet peeve!

 
LynchMob
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And I saw him hit a HR @ AAA Round Rock on Saturday ... ps. I'm not a frequent TTT reader ... what do the asterisks mean for Polanco & Ibanez?

May 25, 2011 7:49 AM on Trot Times for May 23
 
LynchMob
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Eric Patterson is the forgotten #4 ... and he's been a bit hot lately himself :-)

 
LynchMob
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Brad Hawpe is so bad, he can't even make *this* list!

 
LynchMob
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re: Upton ... "Have some mustard with that bat-burger!" ... nice :-)

 
LynchMob
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There's another Brandon to consider ... Braves' Beachy.

Apr 11, 2011 9:56 AM on The NL's Rookie Outage
 
LynchMob
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When is Latos expected to be back?

 
LynchMob
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It seems a flaw in the system/process/algorithm to show Mat Latos with "0"s for 2008 and 2009 ... I don't know the details, but I'm pretty sure he didn't make all his starts in both those years, did he? And shouldn't you have a manual override so that a player already on the 15-day DL doesn't show a green bone for 1-day and 15-day :-)

Mar 29, 2011 7:16 AM on San Diego Padres
 
LynchMob
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W's & L's now sum to 80-82 ... cool ...

 
LynchMob
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These comments sent to dc@baseballprospectus.com ... Frandsen has been cut (and signed to a minor league by the Phils) … replaced by Alberto Gonzalez (hey, they got their A-Gon back!) … Cedric Hunter made the team, for at least while Patterson is on the DL … so perhaps show him with 5% at an OF position?

 
LynchMob
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Frandsen signed minor-league with Phils (Utley really a question mark) ... Everth sent to AAA ... which is a good thing, imo ...

 
LynchMob
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Ya, this may be true ... but why pile on Mike Ivie? Why pile on a guy who did have a good MLB season (27 HRs!)? Even just in Padres' history, there's plenty of more disappointing prospects ... the afformentioned Batt Mush being #1, imo ... but let's not forget these guys ... - Jeff Pyburn - Mark Phillips - Dave Staton - Ray McDavid - Randy Bass ... and the beat goes on :-(

 
LynchMob
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As do Padre fans ... who spent a couple of years (and coupla million bucks) hoping against hope ...

 
LynchMob
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If I had time to watch every pitch, I'd be interested to keep track of the batter's reaction ... did he disagree with the ump's call? I'd bet plenty of batters are "whiners" ... and I'd bet we'd see some umps who get more whining ... and I'd bet we'd get some data which would further this conversation. What makes me want robo-umps is the memory I have of watching the final out on Fernando's no-hitter ... my memory says the first pitch was outside, called strike 1 ... second pitch was further outside, called strike 2 ... third pitch was rediculously further outside called strike 3. I've been mad ever since ;-)

Feb 21, 2011 5:54 AM on The Real Strike Zone
 
LynchMob
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I think the Padres' loss of Adrian's glove/defense will be significant also ... I think that's the part of Adrian's game that BoSox (and AL) fans will be most surprised with.

 
LynchMob
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I heard that Waldis Joaquin "rejected his waiver claim" ... what does that mean?

 
LynchMob
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How many players hit their 90th percentile forecast? Was it 10%?

 
LynchMob
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How long before you think PECOTA will incorporate into its algorithm data from hitfx/pitchfx? So that, for example, it will "know" that Vasquez lost some mph last year ...

Feb 07, 2011 2:17 PM on They're Here!
 
LynchMob
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What is it about Torres that makes you think the current algorithm does not apply to him? Is it something you think could/should be incorporated into the algorithm?

Feb 07, 2011 2:15 PM on They're Here!
 
LynchMob
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Chris Young (the pitcher) now with Mets

Feb 07, 2011 9:12 AM on They're Here!
 
LynchMob
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I assume the basis for this comp can be explained by this statement from Colin's article last week ... This year, we're encouraging PECOTA to rely more heavily on minor league comps for minor league players.

Feb 07, 2011 8:43 AM on They're Here!
 
LynchMob
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My favorite is Evertt Williams comp'd to Mikey Mantle!

Feb 07, 2011 8:35 AM on They're Here!
 
LynchMob
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The big guy has lots of fans in San Diego ... we hope you're right in your analysis ... THANKS for the article!

Feb 03, 2011 7:42 AM on Shooting Blanks
 
LynchMob
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Good call on Frieri ... and the Padre fan in me is *really* rooting for Maybin and Blanks, which historically has not meant much ...

 
LynchMob
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Would be interesting to see ... I'm guess that rather than a shorter line, the scale of the x-axis would change :-) ... still would be interesting to see.

 
LynchMob
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A concern I have about the "votes by position" is whether or not "backup catcher" is a position? Isn't a reliever just a "backup starter"? Sorta :-) Could there be a place in the HOF for the best backup catcher of all-time? Eh, now I'm just getting silly ...

Jan 21, 2011 12:01 PM on The Twilight of the Gods
 
LynchMob
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Just like many baseball stories, the details are fuzzy ... remind Jack about Vern Plagenhoef, Secretary of BWAA from 1988-1992, at least according to this ... http://bbwaa.com/constitution/

Jan 20, 2011 6:31 AM on Jack O'Connell, Part I
 
LynchMob
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Baltimore-Washington ... http://bbwaa.com/constitution/

Jan 20, 2011 6:26 AM on Jack O'Connell, Part I
 
LynchMob
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Such as Petco ...

 
LynchMob
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What does "hardest" mean? Isn't a large part of that being "mental" ... ie. if players believe it to be "hardest", then doesn't that make it true?

 
LynchMob
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I loved seeing Barry Bonds in his Bucs uni ... he was a stud on the field right from the get-go. I've never been a fan of his off-the-field personality, and believe that to some extent that's none of my business. I was OK with the film being pretty sympathetic to him. And I enjoyed seeing the bat speed of the young Jose Canseco ... wow! I'm looking forward to the 11th inning ...

Oct 05, 2010 7:22 AM on Lynn Novick
 
LynchMob
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Love it ... thanks! More! Any chance he starts next year at AA? ETA @ MLB?

 
LynchMob
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The biggest reason? As stated in another recent BP article about Thome ... Furthermore, by passing McGwire, Thome now holds the distinction of having hit the most homers without winning an MVP award

 
LynchMob
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It's my understanding that "Storm" for Lake Elsinore comes more from it's connection to Shakespeare than local weather ... http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hamlet The play opens on a cold night at Elsinore ...

 
LynchMob
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Thanks! Wouldn't have guessed that Garland's WARP would be that much lower than Livan's ...

Jul 08, 2010 10:09 AM on Free Agent Midterms
 
LynchMob
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Jon Garland has turned out to be a good signing by the Padres ... I'm surprised he doesn't get a mention in your article ... http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/g/garlajo01.shtml

Jul 08, 2010 8:29 AM on Free Agent Midterms
 
LynchMob
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Thanks, Marc! This is a *tough* decision ... and getting tougher every day that the Padres are unexpectedly in first place! Will be very interesting to hear what the Padres' plans are ... and even moreso to compare that to what they actually do. A comment at MadFriars.com had this suggestion today ... davidjay wrote: They could spot Stauffer in his slot on Thursday and, by virtue of the post All-Star break schedule, give him essentially three weeks off right now so that he's fully available down the stretch. They could get him to the end of July with 106-ish innings pitched, leaving him about 50-60 to get through August and September. I'd much rather see him rationed in July when they're playing Washington, Arizona and Pittsburgh than in September when they have a brutal stretch against the key teams in the division, Cardinals, and Reds... ... so they do have options ... and appear to be passing one up.

 
LynchMob
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My favorite line of all time was when Wayne Hagin was a side-kick to Bill King and Lon Simmons in Oakland ... and Lon says to Wayne "I'd have invited you along to play golf with us yesterday, but we already had 3" :-)

Jul 02, 2010 7:14 AM on MLB Radio Broadcasters
 
LynchMob
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re: Cedric Hunter ... good question! Here's a look ... http://ducksnorts.com/blog/2010/07/midseason-minor-league-promotions-2010-hitters.html#more-3454 He doesn’t possess any one overwhelming skill but he does a lot of little things well, which makes him a borderline everyday player but potentially useful as a fourth outfielder. Think Tony Gwynn Jr., which isn’t the insult I would have considered it a year ago. ... which seems a reasoned position, imo. I saw Cedric play in San Antonio about a month ago and his approach at the plate looked much stronger than what I had seen in Lake Elsinore a couple of years ago.

 
LynchMob
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Another pitcher to watch ... this one threw 136 pitches on 3-days rest in a high pressure situation ... http://rivals.yahoo.com/ncaa/baseball/news;_ylt=AvnR8B2nGeNAREhhJz8Pf.U5nYcB?slug=ap-cwsfinals

Jun 29, 2010 8:00 AM on The Red Sox Report
 
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Tate got his first hit yesterday ... http://web.minorleaguebaseball.com/milb/stats/stats.jsp?sid=milb&t=g_box&gid=2010_06_22_mrnrok_pdrrok_1 ... and his second, and a SB ... so he seems healthy.

Jun 23, 2010 6:52 AM on Draft Wrap: NL West
 
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Video and comments from Paul DePodesta ... http://itmightbedangerous.blogspot.com/

Jun 22, 2010 7:25 AM on Draft Wrap: NL West
 
LynchMob
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Tate is in CF for the AZL Padres ... http://web.minorleaguebaseball.com/milb/stats/stats.jsp?sid=milb&t=g_box&gid=2010_06_21_pdrrok_royrok_1

Jun 22, 2010 7:24 AM on Draft Wrap: NL West
 
LynchMob
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I went to an Express game a couple of weeks ago and Johnson's defense at 3B was stunningly poor ... ya, just one game, but he made several poor plays ...

 
LynchMob
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http://www.baseballamerica.com/today/draft/2010draftdb.php

Jun 11, 2010 9:42 AM on Draft Wrap: NL East
 
LynchMob
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Molina left today's game with a hamy problem ... it's time!

 
LynchMob
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Thanks for the Darwin Barney mention ... that kid deserves to be on the list of all-time college baseball greats (with 3 CWS appearances, 2 CWS championships ... I'll bet not many, besides Mitch Canham, have that on their resume :-) ... but I never thought he had a chance to get to AAA ... Go Darwin ... Go Beavs!

 
LynchMob
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This is obviously small-sample-size and anecdotal ... but I like it! I'm with Louis Arighi ... the running away sure seems "active" to me ... so ... the question, for me, becomes: if "active", then OK to use "Compliance techniques"? Sure. And if OK to use Compliance techniques, then OK to taze? Sure. From what little I've read about the risk of tazing, the riskiest is when it's done to the chest ... so in this case, the risk seems below-average for use-of-taser. The hard question for me is how to respond to allegations of law enforcement officials using a taser on a person putting up passive resistance to getting a speeding ticket. I don't think anyone wants that to be acceptable. Being a good law enforcement official is hard ... failures are going to happen ... and dealing with them is necessary (and difficult in many ways) ... but this incident does not seem like a failure of law enforcement.

May 05, 2010 7:44 AM on Excessive Force
 
LynchMob
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Your conclusion, make him a bench coach, was my first thought when reading Millar's comments about being valuable without playing ... so now the question is: Why don't teams do this? Is there a limit to the size of the coaching staff? Limit to the number of non-players in the dugout? And maybe it can be a revenue generator (ie. I bet Millar would pay the Cubs to do the job :-) ...

May 05, 2010 6:56 AM on The Designated Jester
 
LynchMob
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Zaws got the first hit in Petco Park history! http://goaztecs.cstv.com/sports/m-basebl/stats/031104aab.html But he was drafted out of Lee University ... http://www.thebaseballcube.com/Players/Z/Lance-Zawadzki.shtml

May 03, 2010 7:07 AM on NL Roundup
 
LynchMob
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Will this be updated to show that Ramos made the club?

 
LynchMob
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From a friend in San Jose ... I heard Sabean on the radio at lunch. He sounded like the only debate about Bowker is whether to start him in LF or not.

 
LynchMob
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Berkman needs at least some downgrade to his PAs (from 567) as the injury forecast gets more and more grim ... And, along those lines, Chris Johnson needs some PFM love ... me thinks ...

Apr 02, 2010 10:59 AM on PFM Update 4-1
 
LynchMob
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In case anyone wants a minor-special-case to check out, I don't understand David Freese's projected BA of .234 ... just seems low based on his track record ...

Apr 02, 2010 6:35 AM on PFM Update 4-1
 
LynchMob
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That's always been my experience

Apr 02, 2010 6:12 AM on PFM Update 4-1
 
LynchMob
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The .234 projected batting average for David Freese sounds too pessimistic to me ... how about you?

 
LynchMob
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Padres are expected to put Thatcher on DL and keep Stauffer in the pen ...

 
LynchMob
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Colvin is in

 
LynchMob
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Yup, Nationals optioned OF Justin Maxwell to Triple-A Syracuse.

 
LynchMob
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Ahhhh ... thanks :-)

 
LynchMob
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Chris Kahrl reported this today ... The decision to excuse Miller and Rick VandenHurk's poor performance seems to be leading the Fish towards a decision to make Clay Hensley the club's fifth starter. http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=10381

 
LynchMob
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Giants' Frandsen traded to BoSox ... http://www.mercurynews.com/giants/ci_14764909?nclick_check=1

 
LynchMob
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Some players' names don't turn into a link ... most that I see are because of mis-spelling ... Votta, Cantua, Garrrett ...

 
LynchMob
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Love the format ... all on one page has some advantages that I like ... I can find answers to my questions without clicking around to different web pages ...

 
LynchMob
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Can we get E-BABIP and SIERA added to PFM? Then how soon into the season would it make sense to look at these year-to-date numbers and "forecast" rest-of-year performances that might not be obvious based on the classic 5x5 stats? After May? After June?

Mar 25, 2010 9:05 AM on 2010 Fantasy Content
 
LynchMob
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I agree that this is an odd adjustment ... splitting up HRs and RBIs? That looks like one of those web-site-changes done by a contract programmer who's never looked at baseball stats ...

Mar 25, 2010 9:00 AM on 2010 Fantasy Content
 
LynchMob
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I'm prolly a bit more superficial than most of your readers, but if you'd include what team a player is on in articles like this, I'd appreciate it. I'm an NL-only guy (perhaps even NL-only snob :-) who doesn't pay good enough attention to off-season moves until Opening Day ... just sayin' ...

 
LynchMob
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Wow ... I can see it now ... the next generation of Pitch f/x data will include an x,y,z coordinate of the catcher's mitt at the time of pitcher's release! Yow!

 
LynchMob
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Thanks for answering this question ... I'm pretty sure it was serious, I'd guess he didn't account for the change in the # of pitchers you ranked ... Another way to answer the question is to turn it into an apples-to-apples comparison ... which of your out-of-the-top-30 NL starters this year is most likely to be 5-star next year? For me to answer that question, I'll look at age and years in the big leagues ... and perhaps even SIERA? ... perhaps add these attributes to next year's presented data ... Gotta think that one of Cueto / Strasburg / Chapman will be that guy ... but the question which roto/fantasy players want to know is "which one"? My team can only afford to take one such shot ... eh, in reality, if my goal is "win this year", I probably can't even afford to do that (since I have a solid base of keepers to build off of ... if my team were weak going in, I think I'd take more risk for this year, especially if it came with better hope for a return in 2011) ...

Mar 11, 2010 7:41 AM on NL Starting Pitchers
 
LynchMob
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"marginal #3" may be a bit harsh, but BP's Marc Normandin thinks he's a "middle-of-the-pack #3" ... http://baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=10185

 
LynchMob
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I was confused about this also, just missed it on first read-thru, thanks for the clarification ... Also, you should check what PECOTA predicted last year ... what I know is that I got him my roto-style auction for cheaper than I expected, and I was basing my bid limits on PECOTA ... so that tells me that PECOTA 2009 was right on for Joe Blanton ... so there's no reason to way for mid-June 2010, BP can say "told ya so" right now!

 
LynchMob
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Do the Padres have the best set of 19-year-olds in baseball? OF Donovan Tate INF Edinson Rincon OF Rymer Liriano OF Everett Williams RHP Keyvius Sampson RHP James Needy INF Jonathan Galvez

Mar 03, 2010 7:34 AM on Padres Top 11 Prospects
 
LynchMob
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1968 ... the year of the pitcher ... also the year of a 6-game stretch that's in the record book ... http://www.baseball-almanac.com/recbooks/rb_hr5.shtml ... *10* HRs by Frank Howard in 6-games, from 5/12/68 to 5/17/68 ... you can look it up! http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/gl.cgi?n1=howarfr01&t=b&year=1968

Feb 16, 2010 10:38 AM on Frank Howard
 
LynchMob
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So, it only took 20 minutes for the winning entry to get posted ... youse guyse are GOOD!

Jan 19, 2010 2:32 PM on May 20-26
 
LynchMob
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re: Padres are desperately looking for more offense ... seems like an overstatement for a team with a 95 OPS+ ... http://www.baseball-reference.com/leagues/NL/2009-standard-batting.shtml On the contrary, I'd say the Padres are desparate for more pitching ... given they have an NL-low ERA+ of 80 ... http://www.baseball-reference.com/leagues/NL/2009-standard-pitching.shtml So, will the Padres trade Blanks for an arm? Not if he's as good as Dave Parker, I hope :-)

May 06, 2009 10:54 AM on May 6
 
LynchMob
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Microsoft has a good template for Excel ... http://office.microsoft.com/en-us/templates/CT101438151033.aspx ... versions with and without pitch count.

Apr 01, 2009 12:23 PM on Huntin' 'n Peckin'
 
LynchMob
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The new Padres CEO and Vice Chairman is Jeff Moorad ... the club Chairman John Moores. And here's a link to the Tom Krasovic article in the San Diego Union-Tribune ... http://www3.signonsandiego.com/stories/2009/mar/28/padres-moorad-heal-dysfunctional-front-office8733/?padres

Apr 01, 2009 12:04 PM on Falling Into Place
 
LynchMob
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100+ losses is what I'm seeing from this pitching staff ...

 
LynchMob
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It's my understanding that Trevor Hoffman has said that he is less effective in non-save situations ... and explained that the game situation (ie. pressure) impacted the hitters and their response to the change-up ... "if save-situation, then eager/anxious/under-pressure and therefore suseptible to swinging early at a good changeup" ... but "if non-save-situation, then relaxed and able to recognize change-up and smash it" ... As you state, there sure seems to be a lot of experiences that have helped fuel this idea ... Thanks for digging into it for us! Can't wait for more data ...

Mar 26, 2009 2:16 PM on Under Pressure
 
LynchMob
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What are the pro's & con's of have a 2-year-point cutoff for the reassignment versus just stating that the lowest one or 2 teams will be "relagated"? Or has the point-bar been set low enough that it's possible that no teams get banished? I've always been intrigued by the "relagation" aspect of the Engligh soccer leagues ... and so I like the concept applied to roto ... and sometimes wish it could be applied to MLB ...

Mar 25, 2009 1:02 PM on Tout Time
 
LynchMob
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But then the short pitcher with better stuff *will* get an opportunity at a different college ... even if it\'s down a level ... and so he\'ll get an opportunity to put up results to justify further opportunity. And I guess that what I\'m saying is that even D1 college programs don\'t have the luxory of making the choice you are proposing. I think the biggest impact of the \"bias\" is that results in mis-reporting actual/true player heights ...

Sep 26, 2008 3:02 PM on Does Size Matter?
 
LynchMob
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I ump\'d some Little League this year ... and it\'s my general observation that plenty of short players had an opportunity to pitch ... and many of them seemed \"above average\". Yes, there\'s a bias for tall players ... but that seems more than justified by reality (especially by the observation that *all* MLB pitchers are taller than average). Are there so few innings available to HS freshman and JV and varsity teams that a good pitcher who is short will not get them? Perhaps the college ranks are a good place to look ... as their objective is \"winning\" rather than \"development for MLB\" ... I\'ve seen many good pitchers who are short ... such as Lincecum, obviously ... the other example who comes to mind is former Oregon St closer Kevin Gunderson ... http://itmightbedangerous.blogspot.com/2008/09/organizational-consistency.html ... listed as 5\'10\" ... hmmm, I\'ll bet he\'s not 5\'10\" :-) How can it be that guys like him don\'t make MLB because of \"bias\" ... as opposed to \"results\"? He\'s getting enough of an opportunity to make it or not based on results, imo.

Sep 26, 2008 1:53 PM on Does Size Matter?