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I really enjoyed this
How much do you look at/consider <span class="statdef"><a href="http://www.baseballprospectus.com/glossary/index.php?search=cFIP" onmouseover="doTooltip(event, jpfl_getStat('cFIP'))" onmouseout="hideTip()">cFIP</span></a> when looking at pitchers? I feel like on Strasburg specifically cFIP agrees with intuition that he is elite. While his <span class="statdef"><a href="http://www.baseballprospectus.com/glossary/index.php?search=DRA" onmouseover="doTooltip(event, jpfl_getStat('DRA'))" onmouseout="hideTip()">DRA</span></a> was high, he was still 9th among SP in cFIP last year. I'm not super well versed in cFIP and when to use it, but it's purpose is to be predictive, right?
Without checking preseason projections, I would have considered 2014 to be only slightly "unlucky". From my memory, 2012 stood out as a very unlucky year for the Sox in terms of under-performing WARP projections (injuries to Lackey, Ortiz, Pedroia, Ellsbury, major down seasons for Lester, Buchholz).
Jonah Keri wrote about the 2013 Sox in the middle of the season. He looked at some of their biggest improvements from 2012 with the narrative partially being 2012 was the fluke: http://grantland.com/the-triangle/the-2013-red-sox-dont-call-it-a-comeback/
I'm curious about the PECOTA projection. In game 2 with the same lineup and SPs, PECOTA had 56% Giants/44% Royals. Is there anything different about the inputs that's causing a difference (obviously, that would be outside of starting lineup/pitcher), or is it that PECOTA runs a series of simulations and last time the simulations returned Giants 56% of the time and this time they returned Giants 55% (which really isn't much of a difference at all).
That last day of the season in 2011 was something else. I was a Red Sox fan in Baltimore to see if the Sox could hold on to make the playoffs. It was a Wednesday and there was a rain delay so a lot of the crowd left. The ones that stayed were *really* into the outcome of the game. My friend and I were probably the first ones on the road when the game ended.
I was pretty bitter for a lot of the 2012 season after the way 2011 ended. That and the circus going on in Boston that year, and the way the 2012 Os seemed to fall backwards into wins for half the season (before making some legitimate improvements down the stretch).
Remember when John Lackey wasn't even nominated for comeback player of the year last year? Still blows my mind
That's interesting, thanks!
#5 on the list has me thinking--do HR derby participants get to choose what type of pitcher throws to them? Do they always get the platoon advantage, or is there just one HR derby pitcher and it's the BP pitcher of the hosting team.
PECOTA has seemed off to me all series. The Cardinals have been favorites in every game and their smallest advantage was 52%. Is the AL/NL impact really small in PECOTA's eyes, or do the Cardinals just match up really favorably with the Red Sox. You'd think the team with the best run differential in baseball this year would be favored to win at least one game.
Also, I noticed Allen Craig doesn't have his TAv listed. I was quickly checking the right most number in the quadruple slash line and thought "wow, that is a really high TAv" before realizing that it was actually his SLG.
I was just thinking the same thing. But if there is any NL team that is well positioned to play with a DH it is probably the Cardinals who can play Matt Adams and (a healthish) Allen Craig.
I think what everyone really wants to know here is: will the P in WARP be staying?
You guys should do intros like this all the time. It's like in the Flintstones when they used to start each episode with a 10 second clip from later in the episode. It really helps build the anticipation.
Great article - I love that I periodically get updates on what Charlie Zink is doing. I was at his one and only start in August 2008 (I'd recommend this article if anyone is interested more: http://espn.go.com/boston/story/_/id/7831023/charlie-zink-made-fenway-park-one-game)
I'm really routing for Wright now.
I remember reading this post by JC Bradbury a while back and it really made me question the usefulness of replacement level as it is currently constructed: http://www.sabernomics.com/sabernomics/index.php/2010/12/whats-wrong-with-replacement-level-valuing-of-players/
Did James (or Woolner, or anyone else) ever discuss or demonstrate that the distribution of talent is skewed the way replacement level statistics imply?
I was actually just thinking about this the other day. I was wondering what the history of the use of replacement level has been--so thanks for putting this together!