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Welp, I've been getting that reference wrong for a decade-plus. Thanks!
Strong. TMI, but strong.
I just want to say that commenters playfully arguing over whether the Reds will win 7 more games because of a throwaway line in a column is the reason I love BP. Not being sarcastic for once <3
He's <span class="playerdef"><a href="http://www.baseballprospectus.com/card/card.php?id=18258">Larry Sheets</a></span>' son -- our bad!
Oof! Fixed, thank you.
True, we know how Marte's entire career will play out now.
Obviously I meant January 2017 ... which was still wrong! Thanks for your note - it's been fixed :)
This is a little self-evident, but so is my first point, so fair enough!
Sorry about your Cubs :( blame Theo
News from the Citadel = what have they been up to
Oathkeeper = best outcome
Kingslayer = if they fall short
Hope that helps. Thank you for reading anyway!
Just a little too early. He'd be in the next 25-35 names, I think.
You have to check a 4th time
And I'd like to see Robb Stark fall into Margaery Tyrell's arms. Alas,
Nunez hit .288/325/.432 with 16 homers and 40 steals last year. That's Barreto's ceiling to me, and it's a damn good one.
Just a GoT joke. Adams would've made the next 50 as a lowish ceiling MLB arm who's almost ready now. Acevedo I'm not quite as high on, but he'd probably be top-150
I think DeShields is a perfectly reasonable comp for Mateo's floor, sure.
That being said, I grant you that Mateo has among the highest bust potential of anyone on this list, and if you just want to stay away, I can see why. Pretty nice upside, though.
<span class="playerdef"><a href="http://www.baseballprospectus.com/card/card.php?id=50297">Jarrod Dyson</a></span> is the no. 39 OF in 5x5 leagues right now per ESPN's Player Rater because he has an OK average and 20 steals. <span class="playerdef"><a href="http://www.baseballprospectus.com/card/card.php?id=51988">Cameron Maybin</a></span> is at 26 because he has 25 steals, and he's batting .245. Speed matters!
No to Perez. Pache wans't particularly close to making this list but would make a top-101, I believe.
I think there's a strong argument to be made for him in Tier 2, but not in Tier 1. He still hasn't proven that he can hold up to the rigors of catching for a full season (has caught 94 games max), he's small for a catcher and the history of very good catching prospects is pretty dicey. He's also a guy who might not be a huge impact fantasy asset right when he reaches the majors, given that he'll have to learn his pitching staff, adjust to MLB pitching, (potentially) get used to catching even more regularly, etc. It adds an element of risk to his profile that's missing from the top five names and, in my opinion, most of the tier 2 names as well.
You're not crazy if you love him though. The dude can hit.
Bret generally has a better grasp on international talent than I do, but from what I understand he'd be in Tier 1
Fixed, but if they go 0-8 from July 21-29 I'm changing it back.
Or a Sal Perez owner nodded his head in agreement.
Bradley was the third-most important piece in the deal. I think we can all agree that we'd rather have Bradley than <span class="playerdef"><a href="http://www.baseballprospectus.com/player_search.php?search_name=Alex+Wilson">Alex Wilson</a></span> in Dynasty, so it was just another little angle I worked in at the end to try and tilt the scales another 1% in my favor. It's a strategy I use often in trades.
I think we disagree on Contreras' potential. I'm with you that most catchers aren't worth investing in big-time, but I'm also confident that Contreras is a top-7 Dynasty backup, and all he cost me was a third-round pick two years ago. He plays more, has more versatility than and more upside than your average (non-elite) catcher.
I'd go with Bichette but it's very close for me. I'm definitely the high guy on Mountcastle, though.
Fixed, thank you
Alas, the order is computer-generated.
I get to write *and* edit these given that they have to go up late at night or early in the morning, so all the blame goes to me!
I considered Asa Lacy but had already made a porn joke last year and this was before Kurt Eichenwald, so
I missed you, fawcettbb
BP has many of the highest quality editors in the industry who will all back me here when I say it's definitely "should of."
Updated. Wish this was the first time I'd gotten my Colons confused ...
I'm always due for one of those per article. Ty!
This column runs every three days is partially predicated on the ability to turn current events into jokes. If the relatively benign political one-liners bother you that much, it's not going to be a column you enjoy, unfortunately. Not trying to be standoffish here - just being honest.
Can't believe I'd make that mistake during Jeter Week.
Thank you - fixed
See, you only seem mildly uncomfortable!
Devin Travos, got it
30 steals? Like, maybe three-to-five? It's not like he's just been eking over the 30 mark, and there's no evidence to suggest his PED suspension will have an impact on his performance.
Strongly prefer Marte but it's not crazy
My god. Nice job!
You have taken the bait, my friend. You have taken the bait.
Unfortunately you have indeed gone full BFIB.
If only Matheny had said "<span class="playerdef"><a href="http://www.baseballprospectus.com/player_search.php?search_name=Joe+Kelly">Joe Kelly</a></span>'s Stuff is like a Ferrari," we'd really be cooking :(
I agree with on par with Reynaldo. I just limited it to guys who are prospect eligible for the sake of a coherent piece.
I should've mentioned him, good point, but I'm not taking the over on ~15 starts from him this year.
Was always the low guy on Severino. I agree the upside is there but I don't like his odds of reaching it. In the long term I maintain he's a reliever.
I looooove Anderson. He's no. 18 among SS right now, and I'd prefer him to a few names being popped before him, but I don't think he's being super underdrafted.
Yeah, we've gotten a lot of feedback that ETAs would be useful and I think that's something we'll look to incorporate next year. Thank you!
I love Gallo, thought I admit I am starting to get a little concerned. He probably would've beat out Berrios for the list if not for his hamstring injury.
A majority of the key players in that brain trust are gone.
I honestly don't know a lot about him. The speed could be interesting but I want to see how the bat plays at a level more appropriate for his age before I get excited.
I used to love him but the injuries, distance from majors and non-elite ETA put him behind some of the other guys on this list who only have two out of those three problems. But like I said, if you really like him I get it.
I agree that Nunez is kinda bad but even if Hwang grabs the 3B job I don't think he'll really do anything with it.
And thanks! Interacting with you guys is half the fun :)
I think he's a cut below the Toles/Tillson grouping but he's not a bad sleeper for some value soonish
Don't believe in Hwang as anything more than UTIL. If you want to put Arozarena with the sleepers guys that's fine. I don't have a ton of intel on Perez or Yander, tbh. They'd be outside the scope of top-200 guys.
I'm not owned, I'm not owned
Wasn't considered. Old, little upside, etc. He won't even be on the next ~100 names I release next week.
He fits in well with the Others group.
I think that's fair to say. This is probably the highest I've seen anyone be on him, fwiw.
Very long lead time with a solid but unremarkable cieling
Sure, you can throw him in with Others II.
Ask us again when MiLB rosters are finalized and we'll let you know!
Let's talk about my huge electoral win over Craig.
Think it might be important to differentiate between fantasy and IRL lists here. He does probably have the upside of an IRL all-star because of his defense. That doesn't matter in fantasy, though, and while 30-plus steals are super valuable, he doesn't bring a ton else to tha table (maybe runs). Frankly, I think his placement here says we like him plenty.
Good question. Thompson would've gotten a full write-up and would've ranked right around Hoffman. Blair would've been in the "mildly interesting back-end starter" section.
Any line of reasoning behind "certainly?" Because I don't really agree.
Hopefully a reverse jinx, assuming that means it won't happen? I'm ... I'm confused now.
Does not have a shot in hell of making the majors in 2017.
A fair note, but as we mentioned in the intro, I've gone deeper on all 101 of these prospects (and 200+ more) in the individual top-10 lists. I'd suggest reading those if you want more detailed dynasty info on a player. This list is really just a recap, though maybe we could link directly to each 101 caption if we do this next year. Thanks for reading!
Nope, none came close. Hernandez and Long will be on the next 75 piece that comes out in a week or two.
Certainly fair. He'd be in the 20-30 range for me, but I'm high on him.
Curious what you mean by the floors are off? If you mean they're not low enough, well, we thought this would be more entertaining than writing "not a major leaguer" like 70 times. But if you're coming at it from another angle, I'm interested!
Bret was higher on Happ, Collins, Dom Smith and Taveras. I was higher on Barreto, Zimmer, Sisco and <span class="playerdef"><a href="http://www.baseballprospectus.com/card/card.php?id=107192">Yusniel Diaz</a></span>. Wouldn't say any of them were particularly contentious, though. Maybe Happ but I know I'm gonna lose that battle :)
don't we all
Pretty massive for me. Gillaspie is a better bet to make the majors but not as anything substantial in fantasy. It probably won't work for Bradley, but if it does you'll want to own him.
Also, no one's asked yet, but I'm planning on publishing a list of the next ~50-75 names at some point in the next few weeks. It won't be a strict ranking like this, but it should help those of you in deeper leagues where most of these 101 guys are gone!
Three main reasons
1) Tapia gets a boost for Coors in this list but is evaluated independently of Coors in the IRL 101
2) Tapia gets dinged a bit for his defense (he's probably a LF) on the IRL 101
3) Bret and I did not contribute to the IRL 101 rankings
Glad you enjoyed it! I'd say most of the change is due to Bret having to deal with me and some of it is based on feedback we got throughout this process.
You're too good to me
The top-101 won't be out for another 7-10 days, but Email me [ed - please use Contact Us page http://www.baseballprospectus.com/contact.php] with questions :)
Bret and I collaborated on it this year and are aiming for next week, which means it will probably be out the week after next :)
I'd argue it's a bit more nuanced than that. I just really hate backend starters in fantasy, and unfortunately a lot of SP prospects are backend starters. Plenty of MLB value, but utterly replaceable in most leagues.
"There have been players who've debuted at 20" doesn't really move the needle for me. Maitan is not that caliber of talent.
Andujar is listed as an Other. I hope he works out because he's fun to watch the but approach is worrisome
Welker is another good one for the Others portion of the 2018 and beyond list. Not a top-200 guy yet but could be with a solid stint in Asheville
Hey, at least something related to the Padres rotation generated a strikeout
If this piece stops you from watching the Padres in 2017 we've actually saved you time, tbf.
I originally had Diaz here but was told some of his defensive reviews at short last year were more positive than once imagined. I do still think he'll be a 2B long-term though.
Robertson will appear as an Other in 2017 shortstops. His fantasy value has cratered. Not a top-150 guy.
S T A Y
This is uncomfortably close to the truth
Herrera is no longer prospect eligible. I think he's a potential second-division starter and a decent buy-low candidate in fantasy.
Your feedback is well taken. With the format we've used for the past few years, every top-10 prospect needs a fantasy writeup, but not every top-10 prospect is fantasy-relevant. That forces me to get ... let's be kind and say creative ... especially in a down-year overall for fantasy prospects. There are only so many ways I can say "don't bother with this guy." But your point stands, and thank you for continuing to read the meat of the lists anyway.
Not prospect eligible because of service time
The sad reality is that fantasy 1B isn't what it used to be, at least in terms of depth. <span class="playerdef"><a href="http://www.baseballprospectus.com/card/card.php?id=204">Albert Pujols</a></span> was the 11th-best fantasy 1B last year, per ESPN's player rater. <span class="playerdef"><a href="http://www.baseballprospectus.com/card/card.php?id=31606">Mike Napoli</a></span> was 15. Some of these low-ceiling guys are going to need to be used in moderate-to-deep leagues.
To answer your question, I'll go with <span class="playerdef"><a href="http://www.baseballprospectus.com/card/card.php?id=104042">Rafael Devers</a></span>. He's not a lock to have to move, but he's probably not a super long-term 3B. His bat will play at 1B and could potentially still be special-ish there.
Due to a position eligibility quick the Royals WS entries are actually listed under the Dynasty OF rankings
My eyes are green
*Andre the Giant voice* I don't think objective means what you think it means.
You have successfully stayed away from Boston media if you think no one is mentioning the depleted farm system. And for that I commend you. We are terrible.
That's addressed in the post, but even if you factor in the ~30 mil owed to Moncada (don't count the penalty $ that's already paid) Sale is a relative bargain.
Someone got it!
Easier pickings than two hobbits marching through an army of Orcs? I think not, ChicagoOriole. I think not.
It's entirely possible there will be an Ironically Named Relievers follow-up post
You answered your own question!
This could be an Annual lineout
Honorable mention, imo
The thing is he's unlikely to end up in the 40-60 range, right? He's gonna be good and healthy and borderline top-25 or bad and injured and barely top 100. I'm not comfortable taking that type of a gamble with my SP2, though I suppose that's more my personal roster construction preference.
"The problems? Pomeranz has already thrown 102 innings, which puts him close to his career high of 147 in 2012. The lanky lefty has the frame to log innings but has had plenty of trouble staying on the mound. That’s part of the reason why the A’s used him primarily out of the bullpen a season ago"
"Elephant in the room" was aggressive but 22 is a bit old for a "top" prospect in High-A. Perhaps a better way to put it is 22 isn't an impressive age in High-A. Especially not for a (now) struggling college bat.
You are correct. We'll get that fixed. Thanks.
Actually I love agriculture
pretty impressive group here
Do you want CarGo back
Thanks. And yeah, I have the Sox finishing third.
[subtweet about reaction to snarky retort]
Well, part of the reason we think they'll have so many ROY candidates is the rest of the team isn't very good, opening up opportunities for young players.
And here’s how those picks performed:
2005 - Boston - 95 wins, tied w/Yankees, 2nd place (WC)
2006 - Boston - 86 wins, 3rd place
2007 - New York - 94 wins, 2nd place (WC)
2008 - Boston - 95 wins, 2nd place (WC)
2009 - Boston - 95 wins, 2nd place (WC)
2010 - Boston - 89 wins, 3rd place
2011 - Boston - 90 wins, 3rd place
2012 - New York - 95 wins, 1st place
2013 - Tampa Bay - 92 wins, 2nd place (WC)
2014 - Red Sox - 71 wins, 5th place
2015 - Red Sox - 78 wins, 5th place
We’ve absolutely blown it the past two years, and we have not shied away from that. But I don’t think you’re going to get us to feel terribly guilty about the five instances in which we incorrectly picked a division winner that made the Wild Card anyway. I get that this is your favorite thing to do and I remember when you posted this last year. Like Sam said, it looks like we’ve learned. But maybe chill on trying to make us look like idiots for liking a Red Sox team that averaged 92 wins from 2005-2011.
I read this and immediately thought "oh, like me and <span class="playerdef"><a href="http://www.baseballprospectus.com/card/card.php?id=67248">Xander Bogaerts</a></span>."
Ben can't read email.
Pretty tough to project out at this point but it seems reasonable to me, yeah.
I believe the formatting here will answer your question
The issue with Urias is workload/innings limit, not ability. I'll say 60% he gets the call but only 20% he makes a meaningful fantasy impact.
He'd be on my top-150 but I don't think the hit tool will play in the long run -- his MiLB stats are aided by poor fielding. That being said, if you prefer him to <span class="playerdef"><a href="http://www.baseballprospectus.com/card/card.php?id=70776">Roman Quinn</a></span>, I get it.
If honorable mention extended another 10-15 players he'd be there, but he's more of a fantasy no. 5/6 or streamer to me
near Brandon Drury
Not particularly. Someone to keep an eye on but he wasn't close to consideration here.
This guy gets it.
Let's go with Williams and Paulino, with Sims as a bounce-back candidate and McKenzie as a darkhorse.
I do not mean this in a flippant way, but nope! I don't really pay attention to foreign players until they are about to sign/Bret tells me to.
Checking on this now.
If you've truly never heard of a player who makes a big jump, odds are it's due more to a new pitch or a step up in stuff than command. If you're seeing a massive jump from an existing low-101 prospect or a guy who just missed, it's often a player who had ... great stuff ... who's learned how to harness it.
Tough to give catch-all answers for something like this and there are certainly exceptions, but I think that's a general rule.
It's a very, very loose ranking. I basically use these lists as drafts for my top 101. If there's a huge gap between players you can assume I like one more than the other but on a 3-4 slot basis it's not binding.
He was featured in names for 2016
... because I don't think Giolito is going to have much of an impact this year.
Giolito has the highest upside of any pitcher in the minors but he won't see as much time as Matz in 2016
I don't think Reyes is going to contribute meaningfully for fantasy this year. In terms of overall SP prospects, he's in the top 5.
Definitely Matz. Has a job and is very good. I'd probably go Snell, Lopez and Berrios next with Bradley as a darkhorse.
This list isn't quite meant to be a straight ranking, but I'd have him right in the Thompson/Gray/Lopez area. Potential for lots of Ks and a high <span class="statdef"><a href="http://www.baseballprospectus.com/glossary/index.php?search=WHIP" onmouseover="doTooltip(event, jpfl_getStat('WHIP'))" onmouseout="hideTip()">WHIP</span></a>, still might be a reliever.
He'll be featured Monday in the 2017 and Beyond group
In my book Betts is the more complete player right now and Bogaerts has the higher upside.
Cole and Polanco are a nice a 1-2 punch and while the Sox have more young MLB talent right now, the Pirates have more talent in the upper minors. I'd take Boston's duo over Pittsburgh's for sure but in terms of overall young talent I think they're in the same league.
Life as a Red Sox fan is great when you totally ignore the corner positions!
<span class="playerdef"><a href="http://www.baseballprospectus.com/card/card.php?id=70362">Tyler Naquin</a></span> 2.0 to me
Alright, I'm not entirely sure what's happened here, but no, <span class="playerdef"><a href="http://www.baseballprospectus.com/card/card.php?id=100634">Lewis Brinson</a></span> is not moving to catcher.
If he can stay on the field, ya. Dahl will be featured tomorrow, too.
He's not going to be up next year. He'll be featured tomorrow.
Did we read the same Nimmo blurb? I think I made it pretty clear I'm not excited either.
De Aza is fine but not special enough to block anyone worthwhile. But fine, he's a poor bet for even 100 <span class="statdef"><a href="http://www.baseballprospectus.com/glossary/index.php?search=PA" onmouseover="doTooltip(event, jpfl_getStat('PA'))" onmouseout="hideTip()">PA</span></a>.
Also, before anyone sees this and is confused, he'll be featured in Names for 2017 and Beyond tomorrow.
I have absolutely zero confidence that O'Brien can catch
I'd still go Correa, yes. I'd prefer Correa/Votto to Goldy/Heyward, though I know you can't guarantee such a combo in any case.
recap: Craig and I are good and right and Bret is bad and wrong here
I agree that 40 <span class="statdef"><a href="http://www.baseballprospectus.com/glossary/index.php?search=SB" onmouseover="doTooltip(event, jpfl_getStat('SB'))" onmouseout="hideTip()">SB</span></a> is probably his ceiling, but that number is based more off of his 70-grade speed and overall baseball instincts than anything he's done in the minors.
Although fwiw, he stole 31 bases across three levels last year.
The rule I made is that I'm listing players by where they appeared most last year. Otherwise he'd battle Wall for second-most interesting guy in 2017 or beyond.
We hate him, personally.
I can 100% assure you that this was done on porpoise.
Seriously, <span class="playerdef"><a href="http://www.baseballprospectus.com/card/card.php?id=58842">Caleb Joseph</a></span> is bad.
There were only two pretty benign <span class="playerdef"><a href="http://www.baseballprospectus.com/player_search.php?search_name=Chris+Davis">Chris Davis</a></span> comments when I posted this and neither of them were terribly constructive. This was not in response to any of the more legitimate questions about methodology you'll find below.
Also nothing is beneath my humor.
Where is <span class="playerdef"><a href="http://www.baseballprospectus.com/card/card.php?id=59265">Khris Davis</a></span> am I doing this right
Jesus, you keep, like, 600 MiLBers? In that case no, but in leagues that "only" roster 200-250 MiLBers, yes.
Fair to say he can be lumped in with Ravelo/Walker but I don't see much impact potential.
<span class="playerdef"><a href="http://www.baseballprospectus.com/card/card.php?id=1499">David Ortiz</a></span> is 22 spots too low.
Good point on Bellinger's age.
No disrespect meant for Hoskins. He's pretty close to the Smith/Travis/Bauers tier in that I don't see massive upside but he's got enough going for him that he should be a major leaguer.
It put him on the map but I don't think it's indicative of his future output.
It's simply a listing of guys who were once fantasy-relevant who I wouldn't consider ~top-250 names at this point. In Coulter's specific case I don't believe the bat will be much to speak of in the outfield, yes.
The reason the player opts out is because he thinks he can get more, not because his current contract is "a bargain." <span class="playerdef"><a href="http://www.baseballprospectus.com/player_search.php?search_name=David+Price">David Price</a></span> may read the market in 2018 and think he can do better than 4/$127m, and he'll be right if his agents can convince one team that he's worth more. That doesn't mean the Red Sox will have "lost out" by not wanting to pay a pitcher 4/$127m for his age-33-37 years.
I see where you're coming from and I think there are plenty of opt-outs that can hurt teams, but this is a pretty team-friendly one, albeit one that doesn't move the needle a ton on the risk associated with this deal.
I believe so
Kershaw was not a free agent, which is a pretty huge factor, and when you adjust for inflation Kershaw got more than Price. Price *didn't* quite get Kershaw money, which is appropriate.
The article's premise is that *not* all trades have a winner and loser, and I then argue that this makes sense for both sides, so I'm not sue what your disagreement is here. I was indeed not alive in 1948.
Has anything ever made you smile?
I'll go so far as to say I don't really think he belongs in the discussion yet, no. A few good months doesn't outweigh the years of production Altuve, Dozier and Kipnis have provided, and I still prefer Rendon's upside to Odor's by quite a bit.
Craig's point about linear development is huge, too. Just because Odor is X good in 2015 doesn't mean he'll be X+3 good in three years. And, as Craig also said, most people prefer to play for now. I hate you for making me agree with Craig this much.
I guess you could argue that Odor should be ahead of Gordon and I'd listen, but mostly you just seem to be really, really high on Odor. That's fine and maybe you'll be right, but acting like we're insane for preferring players who are clearly better right now is a bit much.
I'd also add that playing for five years in the future isn't a good strategy even in dynasty leagues.
And for a real answer, firmly entrenched near the top of the second tier. Can definitely argue for him over Cano in dynasty.
A gentleman doesn't kiss and tell.
I refuse to believe Craig didn't write the assumption joke.
Also is Carswell a burn?
Do you have twitter?
It was a tongue-in-cheek reference to my refusal to let him go. He's nowhere close to eligible for this.
The day is young. We'll get there.
The main reason I don't want to write such a piece at this point is I'd miss you leaving a slightly different version of the same comment on every Red Sox-related article we post.
Yep. We'll get that fixed. Thanks.
Do you use Twitter
a) Going off minor league stats alone is a fool's errand
b) He's always been like 12 years younger than the competition
c) The drop-off in positional value from SS to 2B is real but not dramatic.
Redraft or shallow keeper? No. Dynasty? Yes.
If he's healthy, he'll be playing somewhere everyday by 2017. Too much talent to be blocked by Odor or Andrus, or he could easily be used as a trade chip. Those issues always work themselves out.
Idk I found the Red Queen Hypothesis piece on TFM to be a little esoteric.
do you have twitter
This isn’t funny enough to be satire, and it sure as hell isn’t smart enough to be serious. C-.
Is this for like, not this year or something? I don't get it.
Not a believer.
Omg. Trey Cabbage might've gone 1:1
Missed you buddy. How's life?
You're probably not even a collection of anchovy.
We started this in the pre-season, so we used April 1 as the cut-off date (also keeps continuity with the series from last year). I get why it's a bit awkward toward the back-end of this series now, but such is life.
"Robertson" is I'm tired for "Stephenson"
Lorenzen would've been in my next two or three guys. Robertson's ranking is a reflection of upside, which I weigh a lot more heavily for fantasy than I do IRL.
Vogelbach would rank highly on a list that only ranks people according to things he's good at.
Guess who just lost Friend of Podcast privileges
Upside, upside, upside.
And by "tow" I mean "homophones before 9AM are hard"
Thanks for clarifying. This is really the only BP Boston/main BP crossover I can think of to date, so hopefully in the long run you'll find that we tow the line pretty well.
Do you feel as though it was a fanboy debate because Betts and Bogaerts were both portrayed too positively, or just because they're both Red Sox?
I don't think this is a revolutionary concept. As Craig said, looking at MiLB stat lines is a good way to signal to yourself that maybe you should take another or a deeper look at a player. No one disputes that.
Saying Travis was the fourth-best 2B prospect in the Tigers system two years ago doesn't mean anyone ignored the stats. It just means at the time, we thought three 2B prospects were better. Maybe they even *were* better back then, and Travis has just taken steps forward. Prospects change. If they didn't, this would be no fun.
Altuve is a fine cherry-picked example, but I'm willing to bet I can find one or two minor leaguers with great stat lines who scouts didn't like who didn't pan out.
Agreed. If I thought he'd do that, he'd be higher.
They're also arbitrary endpoints
I'd argue this comment is evidence that people are still easily seduced by small sample size.
Bradley, Castillo and Cecchini are all starting the year in Triple-A, where there is most assuredly room. Equally simple!
Ugh, thanks! We'll get that fixed.
Note: don't do this.
I hear you, but at 319 overall and 29th among 2B, I'd argue a late-round flier is exactly how he's being valued presently. The direct comparisons to Zobrist also only go so far: they're not the same player, even if Maddon wants to use them in the same way, so Zobrist's career path doesn't do much for me.
The approach and playing time arguments are strong ones, and that's why I just have him as "moderately" undervalued. I don't think he's close to a starting option, I'd just gamble on his power/speed upside over a bunch of guys being taken right ahead of him.
Sifting through <span class="playerdef"><a href="http://www.baseballprospectus.com/card/card.php?id=23954">Tommy John</a></span> applications must be miserable.
"Second of all, we're going to allow everyone to choose the player they want, regardless of how many other people are choosing them. That means, if four writers think that <span class="playerdef"><a href="http://www.baseballprospectus.com/card/card.php?id=59265">Khris Davis</a></span> will lead the league in homers, then by god there will be four Khris Davis blurbs detailing why."
I'd be careful about making sweeping generalizations based on these 10 players. I'd imagine that if we keep going through this exercise, many of the graduated prospects will be overvalued.
Crap. Heaney should've ranked somewhere in the Mazara/Franco or Tapia/Norris tier. Thank you for that catch.
Castillo would've ranked right behind ahead of <span class="playerdef"><a href="http://www.baseballprospectus.com/player_search.php?search_name=Josh+Bell">Josh Bell</a></span>. Tomas would've ranked of <span class="playerdef"><a href="http://www.baseballprospectus.com/player_search.php?search_name=Jose+Peraza">Jose Peraza</a></span>. Iglesias would not have ranked.
He's 21 and has already held his own against AAA pitching. You're right in that he doesn't project as a stalwart fantasy SS the second he reaches the majors, but as he grows he projects as a 60 hitter with 60 speed and a little bit of power.
The last bit of what you wrote is just a leading question. Yes, *if* he can't hit he's not worthy of owning. But the only evidence you've provided that he won't is that he's yet to light the world on fire at levels for which he's incredibly young. The comp to Brendan Ryan is a bit silly.
I'll look into this for you!
Anderson's ceiling is higher than Alfaro's if the former sticks at SS and the latter sticks at C. You can argue that Alfaro's floor is higher, though that's up for debate as even if Anderson moves to the OF he has the speed to be interesting.
Sometimes it just comes down to personal evaluations. You mentioned some ways in which Anderson and Alfaro are similar, but there are more ways in which they differ. Different positions in play, different carrying tools, different upsides. Lots of variables in play.
A lot of what Stephen said is accurate. To me, Swihart is a lock to stay at catcher and has a really, really high floor for a guy who plays a premium position. Schwarber has the higher ceiling, yes, but he's substantially farther away from the majors and is far from a lock to stick behind the plate. I'll take someone with an 80% chance of being a consistent top-10 backstop over someone with a, say, 40% chance of being a top-5 backstop. And yes, the equation shifts a bit more in Schwarber's favor in really shallow leagues.
Positional value is a huge factor. From most valuable to least valuable, it's generally C, SS, 2B, 3B, OF, 1B, UT
There are only four catchers on this list -- five if you include Schwarber -- and two are in the 90s, so I don't think I've made an especially strong case for drafting catching prospects.
Mid-teens to low 20s.
Average Draft Position. The stuff about adjusting for park and era was a joke.
That's fair, but I do think there's *some* value, even if there's less value than you get in, say, the second base edition of this exercise. Also I just like needling Bret, we don't really hate these that much.
(yes we do)
Well, we still skew all three-year rankings pretty heavily toward 2015, because fantasy baseball is unpredictable regardless of the position in question. So I'd argue that having guys like Giles and Davis in the mid-teens is already a pretty strong compliment, and having guys like Hawkins on here at all is a nod to 2015 value.
There are plenty of great set-up guys who never become closers, so you have to be careful when weighing their value in the long-run.
Don't downvote him! It's a follow-up Billy Madison quote!
Well, some of us don't need fantasy to exactly mirror real baseball. For me, it's like reading GoT vs. watching the HBO show. They're connected, but both can be consumed and entertaining in their own right.
I can see this.
Craig has RP prospects tomorrow, I have top-40 dynasty RP rankings on Wednesday, which is really just Kimbrell and then 39 names I'll place in a hat and select randomly.
Where would white llama rank?
Read it backwards
Your comment history is a long series of posts in which you tell us you don't find us funny or clever. If you're really this consistently upset by us trying to entertain people, it'd probably behoove you to find a drier source (check out Mike's work) rather than thinking you're going to change us.
I'll also add that he's probably a reliever.
It also means I'm not good at writing.
Agreed. The only way they ship Fevers out of town is if they somehow acquire more cowbell.
But on a serious note, I don't think there's much correlation. Signing Moncada might make a trade more likely in general, but Devers is no more or less likely to be dealt now than any other minor leaguer in the system.
No longer prospect-eligible
Sort of, but he'll also appear tomorrow.
And so he spoke, and so he spoke
This might be unreasonable, but I think he could be a starter in the majors even before August.
A coconut crab
We know. Old habits. Getting it fixed, thanks.
You are right! We'll get that fixed.
There probably are worse terms, tbh.
From the Reds Top 10:
"The Tools: 6 potential hit; 5+ potential power; 5 run; 5 potential glove"
That's probably a bit optimistic on the power most years and low on the speed. OF2 is the 100th percentile, more likely upside is OF3, more likely still is that you consider him a namedrop by 2019.
In the Owings/Lindor/Russell group
Not being difficult, but I'd take the highest-ranked player from the 15-30 group who remained :).
You're right about notable omissions. The last group is pretty sad.
Super not what I said.
"Ramirez would probably rank third on this list, but this is his last year of SS eligibility and he’s moving to the outfield instead of a fantasy-friendly position like 2B or 3B. Still, if Tulo misses time, he could easy finish as the best shortstop in the game in 2015."
If Ramirez was going to have SS eligibility for all three years, he'd be second or third on the list.
Just a running gag. Happy to answer any and all questions.
Has the natural ingredients to be good but falls apart when you pick him up.
This is a better question for Craig Goldstein
Baez would rank behind Jesus Aguilar but ahead of Moncada
If you're talking about pure ceiling, sure, they're somewhat similar, but floor and probability matter too. Lindor is pretty much ready now and is very safe. Marte could turn into a 2B-first utility guy and Barreto could wash out in Double-A for all we know.
That being said, I think a lot of fantasy players discount Lindor's bat: he's got sneaky pop and a good approach. He's gonna hit.
Correa has the best usable power. I'd imagine Gatewood is in the conversation for raw, but that's a better question for the BP Fantasy Staff.
Yes, that's an apt comparison. I don't project Russell or Correa to hit for big power immediately upon reaching the majors, though Correa has a better shot to do so than most.
He fits in with the "Others" group among 2016 and Beyond, sure. Not a top-150 fantasy guy for me yet, though.
Your point about projecting contextual factors far in advance is a valid one, but both of these guys are probably going to see the majors at some point in 2015; it's not like I'm projecting what Seattle's lineup will look like in 2018. I guess I could write a whole column filled with "what's the point of it all, we don't know where any of these guys will be in the future," but I think that would get boring.
Franco has no help in Philly at all aside from Utley. If Franco hits .270 with 20 homers and Peterson hits .255 with 18 homers, there's plenty of room for Peterson to out-RBI Franco.
Agreed. Overall, this piece failed to move me emotionally.
Cuthbert for 2015 because he could get playing time if (when) Moustakas sucks again. Chavis and Lara for the 2016+ guys for me.
I've seen that rumor too but have no inside info as to whether it's true.
Thanks for the kind words!
I'd like to second you here. The Giolito pick was a stroke of genius by a very smart and good participant.
This is a strong comment.
Come at me with something better and I'll be happy to engage in a debate.
I totally get that this isn't a great answer, but "somewhere in between" is correct.
If Profar gets moved off of 2B it's going to be to play SS, so he doesn't get knocked for potential eligibility loss. If Rendon moves full-time it will be to 3B, so he's docked slightly. If I thought, say, Gordon was going to move from 2B to OF, he'd be docked even more. Sliding scale.
I'm not going to go to war over rankings within the same tier. I think we just saw Dozier's peak, but ranking him at 7 ain't an insult.
Really good Brioche because he has the potential to be delicious but there are obvious flaws (strikeouts/doesn't hold up well w/hearty sandwiches).
In that scenario I'd gamble on Profar's upside since you already have a safe alternative.
Can't even be mad at this.
Not sure how someone can be an annual flop with one year of MLB service time under his belt.
We have dynasty and three-year first-base rankings in the coming days that should answer these questions. I understand your comment about "prospect-eligible" disclaimer, but making such distinctions is really the best way to fairly segment a huge population of players into digestible chunks.
If you still want to talk Singleton after the dynasty and three-year columns hit, feel free to email me and I'll answer any questions you have!
It's not an unreasonable opinion, but we've sort of taken a "wait until they actually move" stance on the fantasy squad. Otherwise, you end up ranking people like Bogaerts and Seager at 3B when they're gonna be SS for a while, etc. It's easier/more instructive to rank these guys at their current positions and include a written caveat that they might move, I think.
Still considered an outfielder for our purposes. Otherwise he'd be the best 1B prospect in the game by a wide margin.
Definitely not. Rough rookie year, but he's not devoid of fantasy value.
My understanding is that Amador was loaned to the Mexican League for the majority of the 2014 season but is still Astros property. Also, I wanted to make fat jokes because I'm projecting.
I blame John Sickles
I only meant in a fantasy context.
Best-case for our purposes would probably see Cervelli earning the most time, but that's not a sure thing and even if he got 450 PA he'd only be in the Salty/Iannetta range. Add in the competition he has in Stewart and Sanchez and I'm very comfortable leaving him off the list.
Yes, worthy of mentioning. Thanks for bringing this up!
Yeah, this piece isn't really geared toward only leagues. Fortunately, we'll have supplemental content in the coming days.
We generally use 20 games as the cutoff for these rankings. If your league uses 10 games, I could see him ranking right around Martin, since he could grab a few appearances behind the plate per year. His days of catching 20+ times a year are behind him, though.
This is our pre-2014 column.
Nick Schlain died 14 years ago.
Nope, I think he'll bat 8th, and while Christian Vazquez isn't very potent behind him, Betts, Pedroia and Ortiz loom.
Yes, some of the greatest left-handed hitters in the history of the game have indeed hit well at Fenway. Statistically, it's still a better park for right-handers, though positive offensively for everyone overall.
Yes, Wacha should be in that list with Wainwright/Lackey/Lynn, with Garcia as the No. 5 who probably won't pitch, leaving a spot open for Martinez/Gonzalez. Apologies.
Thanks for getting the people excited, Craig
It's quite close between these two, but I still prefer Bogaerts. That being said, 144 is probably around his ceiling for impact next year.
Craig better get a calendar or his days are numbered. Wait ...
Ketchup is generally shitty but hot dogs are one of the few acceptable vehicles for its consumption.
This is wrong and bad and you are a just a crony for Big Sandwich.
This is bad and wrong
There's always more sandwich-related content to be had here. You just have to ask.
I believe Swihart would be the Croque Madame here because he does a little bit of everything (hit for avg, hit for power, decent defender), just as the Madame has something for salt-lovers, egg-lovers and grilled cheese-lovers. If you get a truly perfect Croque Madame, it's a 60+ sandwich, but it's more likely that it's slightly too salty or the egg makes the bread runny and you end up with a role-50 snack.
Thanks for reading! And yes, at $3, Susac is a worthy gamble.
I think Susac will be a nice player, but he's certainly nowhere near the Posey/Lucroy tier for me, and I don't think I'd have him as a top-20 guy for 2015, given the playing time concerns and all. That being said, I was surprised by how much Nick Faleris liked him in my discussions with the MiLB team for this piece, and it's opened my eyes to his understated MiLB production.
It's been my pleasure, thanks for reading! If those three stats are the most important, I think I might go Blanco or Mercer, as weird as it is to type that sentence.
I like where your head is at.
I am also too lazy to look that up, and almost no thought goes into those selections. I will, however, calculate my "streamer of the week" W-L/ERA/K%/BB% before next season.
Sadly, I've been invited to join Sandwich Prospectus, not English Prospectus.
A silly rule for silly, stubborn men and women.
I can't believe you went back an edited that out, wow.
Craig can't even differentiate between a hot dog and a sandwich. You can't expect him to nail au jus/with au jus.
You have excellent taste.
I mistakenly included his four homers from winter ball because of the layout I used to look at the stats, you are correct. Interesting note about Pensacola. Thanks for contributing to the discussion.
This isn't pedantic, as it completely changes what I was trying to say. And yes, you're right. We'll get it fixed - thanks!
Probably over all of them, yes. Willingham and Martinez are the only two who give me short-term pause.
I'm a Red Sox fan, I understand.
Without seeing your roster, I think the upgrade you'd see in Markakis over a few games is too marginal to risk Tanaka's upside over, yes.
I would hold on to Tanaka. P.s. your league rules are awful.
I do indeed believe you are crazy if you prefer Moya, Demeritte or Mejia to Piscotty, yes.
This suggests to me that you think Seager is a vastly superior prospect to Walker. I don't think that's a view many people share.
Would've been in the next ~10 for me. Injury played a role, ya. Distance from majors, too. I preferred Stewart even before the injury though.
I make lists every off-season and used a combination of that list, Bret's list, Bret's mid-season update and some of my own notes to cobble this together. The longest I've ever gone is Top 200.
I've never been quite as high on Taillon as some others -- don't see a fantasy ace, or maybe even a fantasy No. 2. Add in his health, and he drops behind pitchers with similar or even slightly lesser upsides.
Yep. Bell is closest and has the most power, so he's slightly ahead of the other two. You can flip Williams and Tapia and get no strong disagreement from me, but I've seen Williams in person and fell in love, so here we are. I'd expect more pop from Williams and a higher average from Tapia, ultimately.
I prefer Liriano
As someone who definitely answers way more BS questions than Craig, let me express my thanks for your thanks!
Such a sneaky humblebrag in here.
Soler is already on Bret's Top 50
Who do you prefer for a dynasty league: Carlos Correa or Addison Russel?
This would eliminate 20% of the content on The Internet.
Better career: Alcantara or Miguel Olivo?
Episode 20 will be up tomorrow! We miss you too!
At the point where I just scream "MAINESKINNNNN" like "KAHHHN" whenever you comment on Red Sox prospects.
Due for regression
I hate Kevin Gregg so much.
I prefer Butler by a wide margin.
Every pitcher you named could see the majors at some point this year with the possible exceptions of AJ Cole and Folty. But, Montgomery, Santana, Erasmo, Hale, Happ and Deduno don't figure to be of much value. There's a good chance that Fiers, Cosart and Hellickson won't knock your socks off either.
For the rest of the arms you've listed, I like Stroman the most for 2014 and Gray the most long-term.
Uh, he's at 69
He won't be an MI if he stays in Boston, and I'm a bigger believer in Cecchini's bat than most. And again, they are three spots apart, so it's clear the gulf isn't that big in our minds.
It might be Craig and I being too patient. We originally had Hosmer even higher than this, but at a certain point we need to recognize the reality of his lack of production. I still think he's going to put it together and explode, but Craig and I are out on a limb on this one.
Yes. The rate of success with TJ is such that we don't have to knock Fernandez too badly, but we can't just assume complete recovery, either. Before the TJ, Fernandez was No. 3 on this list.
There's definitely an argument to be made for Moore ranking higher, but it doesn't involve Verlander.
That's a flip of the coin, especially since we don't know how long it will take Drew to get ready. I'd say keep Miller, but don't have a big issue with grabbing Drew instead.
No, Syndegaard and Gausman are the better prospects.
I don't think 14 slots this far down the list suggests they are terribly dissimilar. But I still prefer Moore by a significant margin.
WAR isn't a fantasy category. WHIP is. And I think TJ is still a fairly big deal, especially for someone with shitty command to begin with.
Are you still personally insulted? :)
Damn. I even looked up the spelling of Bareilles.
How would you compare him to Mike Foltynewicz?
Craig and I are responsible for this list, and while we respect Bret we don't agree with every one of his evaluations. Bret's pre-season evals weren't used at all for this series.
Personally, I was never as high on Tapia or Anderson and have always been high on Gallo. I'll let Craig speak for himself.
We thought there would be too many ties if we went with two respective lists averaged, so we went straight down the line. It took a while. We argued about Danny Duffy for 40 minutes.
You have excellent taste and I would like to know you.
Yep. Decent MI in the majors gonna get the nod over a power arm in the low minors almost every time.
This is a really good question. There's no real one answer, but I can tell you that at several points during our collaboration, Craig and I would ask each other, "really, you would trade player x for player y straight up?" whenever we had trouble with a ranking.
As a very generalized pecking order, I tend to look at it this way:
Star MLB player
Good MLB player
Average MLB player
Average prospect w/ upside
Fringe MLB player
Average prospect w/high floor
The list was finalized yesterday. Keep in mind this is just the opinion of two men, but I think the general feeling is that six weeks of solid performance doesn't completely change our eval or Porcello or Eovaldi. I still think they're both No. 4 MLB starters in the long run, though I acknowledge Eovaldi has a tick more upside than that.
There are 100 players left to rank.
Craig is higher on Norris than I am, but I can buy the argument for his upside.
I'd keep Scutaro out of those three.
I can't put it any better than "Plus change-up. Good control. Fringy prospect."
I was trying to personally insult you, you caught me.
Kalish is better but I expect both to see time.
I think we see the same thing with WMB in terms of strikeouts, but I think his power is somewhat undersold. It would not shock me to see him reach 30 homers some day, and while it feels like we've been talking about him forever, he's still just 25. I'm not throwing in the towel just yet.
I agree with you that a Cecchini at 3B/WMB at 1B future for the Red Sox is unlikely. WMB's bat doesn't profile there, and I think he'd just be traded if Boston decides Cecchini is the future at the hot corner. He's also a good defensive 3B, so someone will bite even if the return isn't huge.
These are dynasty rankings, and I still think Matt Moore will have a better career than Archer. Let's not pretend control is Archer's ally, either.
The WMB and Cecchini rankings are separate entities. I can't project for contextual factors this far out, but I trust the Red Sox to be smarter with their resources than to put WMB at first and Cecchini at third, which hurts the defense and gives two players poor profiles.
Yes, a third baseman who hits .260 with 20 homers and 10 steals is indeed valuable.
Agreed. The Red Sox aren't going to trade Bogaerts, so I don't see a matchup with the Marlins.
I think Swihart is in a different tier than Cecchini/Betts/Owens. Swihart is more of a back-end fantasy starter than an amazing fantasy talent to me. He's a better MLB prospect.
I don't throw HoF comps on prospects as a general rule.
I don't either, no.
How do you feel about Matt Lindstrom?
I'm not in love with Schoop and while I think the Betts hype is getting out of hand, he can really hit and I have my doubts that Schoop can. Schoop has more power, but if Betts out-produces him in every other category by a very wide margin, I won't be surprised.
In an OBP league, give me Cecchini.
J.A. Happ came up to replace Morrow.
It's not out of the realm of possibility, but I doubt it happens. I prefer Smyly in the long run anyway.
None that are fit to print.
Only Harper is "out of order," but in baseball it's just called going on the DL.
I would only do this if Lind is still on the DL when we get word that Singleton will be called up. Otherwise, it's too risky for similar upside.
Only someone silly would do that (I am 2/2 in random HR guesses, no big deal).
Thanks, we'll get that fixed. Either way, are you suggesting that I'm too optimistic here or do you think he can still be a productive MLB bat?
Welp, fortunately for you there are only two left!
Gah, didn't even mean to make this all AL this week. I'll do my best to spread the love around next time.
For an NL streamer, how about Alfredo Simon against the Cubs on Friday.
Jack seasons 1-4, Trevor seasons 5-now.
I look forward to your slab of beef.
I'd take Piscotty first IRL, but I think Vogelbach will have a solid fantasy career, even if it comes as a UT.
I am keeping an eye on him, but I'm not ready to declare him "broken" after two starts. Even if there is an issue and he needs to miss some of 2014, it doesn't change my long-term view of him as a legit No. 2 fantasy starter.
Oops. I'll second Brinson and Velasquez and add Kaleb Cowart and Delino DeShields as some possibilities, too.
Just some comedy jokes. It would not surprise me to see Gallo or Cosart off the list all together for non-age reasons next year. Some concern with Singleton as well.
Everyone who is 25 now.
Ugh, thanks. I'd have Skaggs at 15, behind Brad Miller and ahead of Rougned Odor.
Mike Carp should not be owned in a 16-team league!
I'm pushing for it, yes.
You should write in to TINO, strong candidate for WFFOTW
You joke, but I'm going to talk to Bret about this.
I will give you 16 internet dollars if Jonathan Diaz gets 50 hits this season.
It was, but I think the reasons I had to shy away from that one are fairly obvious. It deserves a TINO shoutout though.
I'd go Joyce, Jones, Almonte, Carp I think
Agreed, keep Peralta
My solo column on deep leagues is out tomorrow. SO STAY TUNED.
You can take these as general fantasy rankings, so roto 5x5, but it's pretty easy to distill H2H value from there.
Yep. I try to go the extra mile to cover for your laziness and I get the blame. Sounds about right.
You're a handsome man/beautiful woman with excellent taste in roster construction.
I asked if I could pick Tyler Thornburg for every category and was told "no." :(
This post is from 2013, not from 2014.
You also don't have to worry about players losing eligibility in mixed leagues. Basically I hate only leagues.
I suppose they're fairly close, but I imagine you have a little more flexibility in a mixed league since you're open to a wider pool of sleepers overall even though the ratio is the same.
But most NL leagues don't have 40-man rosters like the TDGX league above did, so in that case a standard NL-only league would still be significantly shallower.
Paul Sporer covered that a bit in his State of the Position piece here: http://www.baseballprospectus.com/a/22840
I think Choice is better than a platoon player in the long run but that he's largely used as a platoon option in 2014.
Using platoon players in deep leagues with daily changes is an excellent idea, especially if you're an attentive owner. I've been targeting Choice and Daniel Nava frequently in leagues of this nature.
If you're playing in a two-catcher 20-team league, you're even more of a glutton for punishment than I.
I agree with both your versatility and set-up points. In the TDGX league I wrote about above, I ended up with Alberto Callaspo, Macier Izturis and Jeff Keppinger as bench players and Luke Gregrson, Brett Cecil and Darren O'Day as pitchers.
I do think he'll hold on to the job all year unless he's truly terrible, because there's little in the way of competition right now. You're right that Villar is useless in average and RBI, but I he could score 60-plus runs with 40 steals and 10 HR. He's a unique player and you'll need to compensate elsewhere for his deficiencies, but I don't think $10 is a crazy number for him in a league that deep. He could be a top-5 finisher in SB.
You're never gonna stop editing me, eh Tim?
Between Conger, Calhoun, Skaggs, Richards and Green the Angels have a ton of semi-interesting guys who are bound to break some hearts.
We mock because we're uncomfortable, but I agree. It's something we're keeping in mind and we appreciate the feedback!
Can you maybe make graphs for each player individually?
I like Lee and he was one of the final cuts from my list, but Cody Allen is the future in Cleveland and it's hard to see the other guys having much fantasy value.
I don't have inside info here, but given his injury history and whispers of a future in the 'pen even in college I'd be surprised if he makes it as a starter. There's a non-zero chance, though.
These are all fine names, especially Black. They fit in with the "other" category for me. May god have mercy on you if you're in a league where these guys are relevant.
Craig House probably the most inhabitable pitcher of all time IMO.
Paxton seems to have all but locked up a rotation spot for 2014. Martinez is the better bet to start long-term, but faces quite a logjam right now.
This means more to me than you know.
I think Clippard is a better pitcher, which is very well why they may keep him in a more flexible role and move Storen back to closer if Soriano falters. That being said, I still like Storen and I don't think Soriano is quite done yet.
That undersells the potential of his hit tool. He might only be a .250 hitter, but that's far from his ceiling.
It's hard to be comprehensive when you get that far down the list. Doolittle is a fine choice and a worthy target, yes.
Don't you dare get passive aggressive with me after 6k words.
Seconded. These are only seven names and there are 150+ SP, so I wouldn't make too many generalizations based on this piece alone.
I'll bite. What are you referring to?
While the order of players listed above isn't exact, it is specific enough that if more than two or three spots separate players, that should clearly indicate how I feel about them. So I think Dahl is far and away your best bet here, then Tapia with a smaller gulf separating him from Mazara.
I would, however, take Frazier over Dahl. But it's close.
Thanks! Yes, Mazara is better for dynasty purposes.
This is completely fair.
You're being greedy. Don't be greedy.
ETA largely based on when the player is ready, not when the team makes room for him. You can definitely make the argument that Piscotty should be 2015, though.
No Ryan Church?
I don't mean this in a Coldstein way, but the answer is because it's more difficult to hit in the majors than it is in the minors. Springer doesn't project to have a plus hit tool, has been flagged for contact issues since his days at UConn and is not going to post BABIPs of .360-plus once he reaches MLB.
I like Springer plenty, don't get me wrong, but looking at a prospect's MiLB stat line and translating the same production to the majors is a dangerous practice.
Chris Young's five-year average from 2007-2011: 25 homers, 22 steals, .240 average, 156 strikeouts per 162 games. I stand by the comparison as a realistic middle ground for Springer, who could easily strike out even more than Young.
I ordered them somewhat deliberately but did not spend a ton of time on the individual rankings. They're a guideline to how I'd order them, but not definitive by any means.
Just call me Ben-Her
In a keeper, Machado is the one to hold on to and I don't think it's all that close.
Correct, these are for 2014 only. I also love Machado long-term.
I'm glad authors don't have the +/- 1 feature because I'm not sure which option I would've gone with here.
I don't think we see him until mid-2015 and he's got very limited upside. The last cut for me was Cecchini.
I don't expect him to be up until late 2015 or, more likely, mid-2016, so he would not rank at all.
This is a common POV, but I have a really hard time believing the Orioles are going to shift Machado back to SS after two-plus years at third, where he defense is absurd. I think he's a 3B long-term.
But if I'm wrong, at least Machado is moving up the positional value chain and not down it.
Near Prado and Headley, ahead of Sandoval.
You don't have to be an asswhole about it
Is Arkansas a major turnip trade route or something?
Levi Michael is none too pleased right now.
Roman Quinn is 44 spots too low. Otherwise, nice list.
I think that's his ultimate ceiling, but that time frame is a bit early. In 2016 he'd still only be 23 for the entire season, so he's likely not to be at his peak power potential yet.
I think he's better than the 107th-best fantasy prospect, so in that regard he fell a bit due to the board. But he's probably somewhere in the 70-80 range for me in terms of fantasy top-100, so it's not a huge drop.
Thank you, sir. Hopefully the fixes make this easier to understand.
I also have no idea where you're getting that 60 runs stat from. We have his FRAA as -6.9 and Fangrahps' DRS has him at -1 for last year.
I'll chime in here, because I strongly considered Tirado/Gohara/Guzman and the like with my final picks. I decided to go with post-hype guys like Bauer and Olt because I'll know what they are by year's end, and possibly sooner. They'll either be contributing in the majors and off of my MiLB roster, or their value will have sunk to the point where I'd be comfortable dropping them. If I had gone with Tirado/Gohara, I'm resigning myself to sacrificing a roster spot for the next 3-4 years.
Thanks, going to get both of those fixed. But yes, I think Lindor and Mondesi are both on the path to becoming Andurs-like fantasy assets who really only contribute in AVG, R and SB.
I don't think they'll kick him to the curb, but I do think Owings will see the majority of the PT there this season.
This is helpful info - thanks!
Other way around.
I didn't suggest he'd lose playing time. If Drew is resigned I expect Bogaerts to get the majority of his PA at 3B, as he'd likely only man SS against LHP for the most part.
I can't speak for everyone, but I think Beckham isn't here because he's obviously someone to avoid. Don't do that to yourself. You work hard and you're an honest man or woman. You deserve better.
I think we see Alcantara some time in late July or August. I think it's possible you'll see Starlin traded if he does well in 2014, but we could also see Baez at 3B, Castro at SS, Alcantara at 2B and Bryant in RF.
He needs to give up hitting from the right side, which he proved consistently in the minors he can't really do. That's fine, as it still leaves him as the long-side of a platoon, and I'm actually not sure how much worse he could do facing southpaws as a lefty himself.
Franklin isn't a superstar in the making, but he could challenge for 20 homers a year in a semi-favorable ballpark, and he's the type of player who will start at 2B somewhere for 10 seasons. There's still plenty of reason for optimism, though a trade - to the Yankees, perhaps? - would do wonders for his fantasy value.
Weeks hit .209/.306/.357 in 399 PA last year. You have a very deep first tier.
This is a point well taken, and I'll try to make sure I do a better job of laying out this info when we're talking about no-Top 100 names. Thank you for the feedback!
YOU DON'T HAVE TO BE SO MEAN ABO ... oh, thanks!
Gennett is pretty rough at 2B, so he definitely can't play at SS, unfortunately. I agree that they're likely to try and make room for Gindl on the roster - perhaps they'll risk Segura staying healthy and will start without Bianchi.
The last two sentences of this comment are pure gold.
I guess I'll put it this way: I'd give Cecchini a 50% change of being a solid five-category contributor, with solid AVG, R and RBI totals and double-digit homers and steals. I'd give Gallo a 5% chance of being a Fantasy beast with low averages and massive HR, RBI and R totals. I'll take the security, but as you'll see later I like Gallo as well.
I cover Weeks in-depth in the Brewers fantasy preview going up later this week, but the short answer to your question is: probably not. I think it's Gennett's job to lose in a righty-heavy lineup right now, and with deteriorating speed Weeks loses a part of what once made him so attractive. Is he worth a $1 flier or a very late-round pick? Sure. But he's not worth any significant investment.
That underrated Cecchini pretty badly. He's likely to be MLB ready by mid-2014 and he's a safe bet to be an above average hitter. I can see the argument for Seager, but you'd be hard-pressed to find many who prefer Davidson, Moran, Peterson, Olt or Gallo to Cecchini.
I agree with this, yes. I won't speak for Eno, but when you pick first or last, some times you have to reach for a guy you really like.
I think you're overstating Alcantara's 2014 impact a bit. The Cubs have no reason to play him in the majors much before July, and he'd likely be batting near the bottom of a bad lineup. I like Alcantara a lot and he's an easy Top 50 name for me, but I don't think he'll have much fantasy impact until 2015.
I believe the enthusiasm for Rendon stems more from scouting than it does his 2013 numbers.
Old habits die hard. I'll get that fixed, thanks.
We should be friends
I find this comment to be taste less.
MiLB stats don't count, but this is a dynasty draft, meaning you would retain these players past the 2014 season. So while 2014 production is certainly valued, it's not the be-all end-all, or this would be a much shorter draft.
Am I not understanding this comment or are you not seeing the data bins?
I think we do try and mention OBP whenever a player sees a substantial increase or decline in value in OBP leagues compared to standard formats, but the fact is the vast majority of fantasy leagues still use AVG. The suggestion to include OBP more is a good one and one I know I'll personally consider, but it's not going to come at the expense of AVG.
The counting stats point is a fair one, but I think that only makes Hedges a safe bet to be a top-15-20 option consistently, rather than someone who routinely starts in 12-team leagues. When you consider that he's an elite MLB prospect, that makes the gap in value pretty substantial.
Thanks! For upside, I'd rank them Bell, Williams, Heathcott. For probability/floor, let's go Heathcott, Williams, Bell. Overall, I'll go Williams, Bell, Heathcott.
I would defer to Mr. Parks on the first point. If he says 2015, 2015 it is, though his offense may take a bit longer to fully develop.
I'm less concerned about his actual average than I am whether his hit tool will let his power play. I think the number you pegged is a good one to plan for, as a .290 average would then be gravy and a .240 average won't completely ruin your evaluation of Alfaro.
Yes. There's also a gap with Lindor, but it's nowhere near as wide as with Hedges and Lindor is still a top-30 fantasy prospect.
You're among friends here.
Nothing comes to mind re: others doing "what are you drinking?" and would be willing to wager that finding other examples will be difficult.
Fringe top-10 is unfair for Rosario. He's definitely top-10, but I think he's closer to 10 than 2, which is a point I conveyed poorly in this write up. It's a fair criticism. My concern is that the BABIP is obviously unsustainable and his ability to reach base really worries me. The power is clearly legit, but I don't think the good averages are.
As for Cargo, I think we all know what he is at this point and I do think I articulated the pros and cons of drafting him early in the piece. I personally err on the side of safety that early in drafts, which means I don't think he's a reach at eight but I don't think it would be crazy for him to fall to the 10-15 range either.
I knew I'd get tagged for putting the "not very good" tag on Chatwood and maybe that's not totally fair, but I don't think his limited ceiling (low K%) is worth the risk for fantasy purposes. He's a deep league/NL-only guy for me.
I think he'd need to be pitching really well and the Rockies would need to be semi-relevant for that to happen, although I do think a 2014 debut is likely. This should be a much more interesting rotation by mid-2015 with Butler and Gray.
I think it's just an exercise in risk vs. floor. He finished as the 32nd-best player on ESPN's player rater for 5x5 leagues last season, but that was in 3/4 of a season, of course. I think he'll generally go between 10-20 in all leagues.
As yet another right-handed bat, Parker's path to playing time is full of obstacles. That being said, thanks to the positional versatility of Morneau and Rosario and the like there are a few scenarios in which he could see time, and he'd be immediately worthy of attention in just about all leagues. As Bret Sayre pointed out here (http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=22525) Parker is a better fantasy prospect than an MLB one, as 30-homer power doesn't grow on trees.
Good to note re: Rosario, thank you. I've read the same about Lyles, but I just can't imagine Morales or Friedrich pitching well enough in Spring Training to win a spot in the rotation, so I think only Nicasio represents a real challenge there.
When your name means "Defender of the People," you need no nickname.
When it's that close you always take the position player, IMO. Bogaerts it is.
I second this notion but disapprove of this nickname.
This might be my favorite BP title ever. Well done.
I think Wong is still eligible for inclusion on a list like this, sure, but there's no question that his job security took a hit with the Ellis signing. It's likely that Wong loses some playing time against LHP, and he could lose substantially more if he really flops, but the plan still appears to be for him to start. I still don't think Wong loses more than 100 PA, so let's dock his pre-Ellis value by ~15% .
Thanks for your comments, mbovie. I agree with you that Calhoun is a nice sleeper headed into 2014, but this wasn't meant to be a definitive guide to every fantasy prospect who'll see success next year - it was just a snapshot look at seven of the more popular names. There are at least a dozen other prospects who come to mind that would fit in a column like this, and I'll probably address them in the weeks to come.
"He was less valuable as a fantasy first baseman than Brandon Moss last season, for example."
I filtered by 1B for the comparison. He was worse than Moss regardless of his C eligibility.
I was trying to use McGowan as an example of a pitcher who we all wanted to rebound from injury for several years, but who didn't.
Caught in the act of favoriting. For shame.
That's a complex question, but I'd start with a lack of high-caliber pitching, pouring a lot of money into two players who've suffered through injuries and some uninspiring drafts towards the turn of the decade.
Without digging to deep right now, I can't think of many Twins trades that have worked out exceptionally well either, although Denard Span for Alex Meyer has the chance to do so.
From a fantasy POV, that could be a blessing in disguise. Potentially three Top 20 catchers coming from one team.
.260-270 AVG, 15-20 HR, ~50 R and RBI. Potential Top 15 backstop.
I would fully expect Milone to be first in line should any of the above starters falter. There's also a chance the A's deal Brett Anderson this offseason and give Milone the No. 5 spot right out of spring training. He'd be the worst fantasy option among Oakland's starters, and should be used as a streamer only.
What did Cameron Diaz do to you?
I believe you will feel differently when Hosmer finally hits .400/.500/.800.
But on a serious note, I think I oversold the Royals offense here, and that's a fair criticism. I'd expect Escobar, Moustakas and Gordon to have slightly better 2014 campaigns than they did a season ago, though, and still believe it would be easier to find a replacement DH than it would be a good/affordable starting pitcher in this market.
I don't think he'll be worse than Gordon Beckham, and he'll be much cheaper.
I do think the Blue Jays need pitching, but I think even a mid-rotation starter will come at more of a cost than Pierzynski, Navarro, Suzuki or possibly even Ruiz. It's tough to lay out a full plan for each team in ~300 words, so the point I was trying to make is that catcher would seem to be the easiest fix for them given this year's market.
They also do need a 2B, of course, but I would prioritize a catcher and starting pitching first.
I believe this is correct and that Encarnacion will still have 3B eligibility for Yahoo!
Apologies for the confusion this has caused, but Ben L. has it right. This was indeed supposed to be laden with sarcasm, and I don't see how calling the Dodgers "the essence of America's moral decline" can be taken as an anti-Cardinals statement. I have no rooting interest in this series or in the "controversy" that surrounds it.
This has been fixed now, thanks.
This is a fair criticism, to be sure. I should have said it's the best lineup against righties that Leyland seems willing to use.
An excellent pitcher and fantasy asset, but I don't think he has quite the same type of strikeout upside, despite what he did in 60 innings this year.
This is dependent on your entire budget, of course, but I'd go for Gray and Salazar and drop Archer.
Perhaps my favorite comment on any of my pieces os far. Well done.
PECOTA still uses the entire histories of all players involved, not just postseason stats.
It would make some sense, sure, but I would rather have Alexei.
This is largely my line of reasoning as well, yes. I certainly haven't seen Asche play every game, but I'm not going to abandon a few years of scouting reports for a 38-game sample.
Yes, you are both right. I did consider including Washington, along with the Angels and Dodgers as well.
Whether Hernandez can stick in center is a question better left for someone from our MiLB team, but if that's a move he does make his fantasy value takes yet another hit. He'd still only be relevant for AVG and SB, yet that would come without the 2B eligibility.
Delusional is strong, but let's put it this way: Panik isn't a Top 500 fantasy guy for me. I don't think Zobrist is a reasonable comp.
Well, I understand your point re: not being useful for your specific league, but there are AL and NL-only keeper leagues with separate MiLB rosters, and these players have (or could have) some relevancy there.
Either way, I'll keep your feedback in mind as the series progress, and thanks for your idea re: role players. Those of us afflicted with the need to play in leagues like this have to stick together.
Duly noted, and this is also a good idea. Thanks for the suggestion!
I'm glad this piece has found its target audience then!
Thanks, Nick. I appreciate it!
Rest assured that as soon as it makes sense for me to write about Thornburg, I will do so. I think he's a viable long-term starter.
My favorite prospect piece on BP so far. I was talking myself into Wood even last season.