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given the money you spent on pitching, turning a profit on hitting was critical and you did even better than anyone could have predicted. Jealous :)
Do you have GIF's of these swings that you could share with us? It would be fun to take gifscrubber of gfycat to them and play with the views. Thanks
This is what I was referring to
Understandable. Not lumping the two pitchers in the same group, but Giolito shot up like a rocket with a serious injury. Does Guerrieri make a top 125, a top 150, or is the drug slap a very heavy anchor?
Selfish look - Guerrieri took a tumble from 48 to off the list. Also, kudos to getting the list out nearly a full month earlier than last year.
I talked to a guy who sat on the system this season who said Hahn was the most impressive arm he saw in the system. It would be nice to see Ciuffo end the looooong drought of developing catchers in the system. Toby Hall was the last draft/development.
"Behemoth" asking about Amador is awesome. I saw him play on Friday in Hohokam & was the largest player I've seen on a field since Calvin Pickering. He left before the 2nd inning so he wasn't out there long.
I hope it arrives before my trip to the AFL on 10/31. Will definitely wear it to the games I go to on 11/1
I've always felt like the coaches who never had that huge amount of playing career successes were more desirable. Even at a little league level, we've seen the stars become frustrated with their less-talented teammates and that culture only grows as players move up. The lesser talented busted ass daily on the little skills to build some path to the future while the ultra-talented took the express lane to that path. .
although, we're in 1st in LABR, not Tout Wars
You can use the form linked under the "You can contact BP by clicking here" at the very end of the story. That email goes out to the entire fantasy team.
He is using it at a higher rate than he has in the past throwing fewer cutters and more curves so far.
6 of his 9 starts have been quality & the K's are there. I think he's above the "just streamer" line.
He's in the 1st year of a 3-yr deal. That kind of deal is tough to move
I'm in my 2nd year of a scoresheet league. I'm trying other things
I hope we make the switch to OBP in Tout/LABR. I've enjoyed the format in FSWA where we have OBP & SLG over BA & HR & QS over wins.
I show 584 quality starts that have become wins while 524 have resulted in no win per the most recent view into the B-Ref Play Index. So, quality starts have resulted in wins 53% of the time this season.
We've had 2112 games started by pitchers this season, 725 which were won. A conversion rate of 34%.
I'm the worst guy for Vegas. When I go, I will randomly play a slot machine but don't play any tables. I'm too compulsive so I leave everything in my room & spend the time drinking.
Because it stinks of fantasy football, which I quit playing because of the H2H format. I'd get back into it if I could find a points league for football but random luck was tiresome. I missed the playoffs 3 of my last 4 years despite being one of the 2 highest scoring teams in the league.
Just me - but I'd take a league with wins over a H2H format. I rank H2H one step above trade vetoes but a league involving either is a non-starter for me.
Everything has its flaws. Still, the type of game you described (<6 IP, <3 ER, >= 10 Ks) has happened only once this season and it was Trevor Cahill's start a few days ago. Even if I were to eliminate the runs requirement, only 4 other pitchers join the mix: Cobb, Iwakuma, Samardzija, and Burnett.
Meanwhile, there have been 482 games this year where a pitcher had a quality start and did not get a win and a pitcher took a loss 161 times. 321 times, a pitcher had a quality start but had nothing to show in 3 of the 4 categories he can produce in.
I don't play fantasy football. When I did, I once kept Al Del Greco as one of my 2 keepers to the delight of the league. I had the last laugh as I went 14-2 & won the $$$.
Hitters do not have as much control over their HR/FB rates as they do their own walk rates.
No, I don't take him there. 12 team, yes.
I've subscribed to all three theories: buy saves, punt saves, target skills. I'm in the latter group now and the closers I targeted and mostly acquired this season were Balfour, Wilhemlsen, and Perkins. I did get Henderson in the reserves in 2 leagues, mostly due to a lack of faith in Axford and targeting the best opportunity. Getting someone like Bell can be as easy as simple regression drafting but getting guys like Kevin Gregg? That's just wizardry.
This is marvelous. Simply marvelous
I know Paul and Doug covered Gallardo in one if their podcasts. I will look more into Gee
Statistically speaking, sure. But if those stats are changing because he's changing mechanically, for the worse, then we have to focus there first. He is creating a lot of his own misfortune.
How much of Shelton on the HR list comes from the park factors associated with Tropicana Field?
#1 - that's something we will get back in the habit of doing
#2 - we feel the entire show is relevant :)
I'd dump one for Beckett with him being in the NL and being a decent source for K's. I'd lean on dumping Parker.
I would take him over Pagan ROS
So well done
I would do that deal
I had 2 pitchers for a daily game I am playing today. Hamels vs the Pirates was a no-brainer given they're awful vs LHP but went with McAllister over Iwakuma today for two reasons. 1 - McAllister is tough on RH and the only LH threat in Chicago can't hit right now and 2 - the blister issue that has been around all season and chased him after 70 pitches last start. You sold me on Iwakuma in the off-season and I have him in 5 leagues including a second straight season in AL Tout.
I think his struggles deserve a separate article and have suggested it to the staff.
For every example you find, you can find another non-example. The piece I linked to in the beginning of the article shows that nothing really holds up well.
I could have gone on all day with some players. Arizona stats really mess with things because of the friendly environments. I lost count of the >.900 OPSs from that league.
as I said on Twitter - Buchholz is just the type of pitcher that gives the Rays troubles in that he he can throw a ball toward home plate.
It was truly a zany day of baseball
Not sure they have any good options with him out. Their 40 man roster is littered with position players on the DL already so they'd have to make a move for someone off their 40-man. My guess would be Hunter Morris to come up and play 1st with Alex Gonzalez playing 3B
mmmmm.....must have this again
there is, here - http://baseball.physics.illinois.edu/Denver.html
Average Draft Position.
Good point with Moore, although I think Kile's curveball getting out of the altitude had as much to do with his success as Duncan did. His curveball was completely neutered in the high altitude.
that's a fantastic example of self-awareness
I'd jump on Seager myself
Is there someone else to cut besides any of those 3? I don't think the Motte/Boggs situation is out of the weeds and I'd hate to give up on either but Frieri is useful now as Madson is still a ways off.
based off the final standings from the past couple of seasons.
I diagree with the Astros. Sure, they may hit you on the ratios, but they should be good in the counting categories based on opportunity. It is why I targeted guys like Harrell, Carter, and Maxwell (and missed out on Peacock) because they won't have to look over their shoulder as much as they had to in the past.
For this year, the end game didn't seem as desperate as it was in the past. The extra team in the player pool led to the following Astros going: Harrell, Peacock, Altuve, Dominguez, Pena, Wallace, Carter, Greene (oops), Maxwell, Martinez (x2), Corporan, Castro, Norris, Veras, Bedard. In terms of hitting/pitching, the league seemed to be rather stable.
In AL formats, Aki Iwamura earned double digits each of his first two seasons in the bigs.
Hamilton is worth at least $25 in AL formats :)
Cano/PED rumors are complete bunk
No salary concerns? Motte is a keeper for me because while saves can be found, he's one of the strongest possibilities of bringing home the bacon.
I agree, but I use those rankings because it addresses how the average player treats saves rather than the expert approach of punting them.
but does that mean we can ignore the averages of .251, .225, and .244 from the three previous seasons? those also came in seasons where he demonstrated similar walk and strikeout rates.
While I agree with you that the projection is a bit low for my comfort level (as an extremely biased E5 guy), I see where it is coming from.
I have my concerns with Zobrist because in watching him play on a daily basis, he's lost a step. It showed up last season as he tried to steal bases. He was caught at a high rate for him and most of them weren't close. He's 31 now, has played nearly everyday at a variety of places, and on a lot of turf. In a scoresheet league, I still like him but in straight fantasy, I too would take Kinsler first.
if you run the PFM with and without SGP set, you will get closers ranked in a different way. Try that out and see which one suits your needs best.
SAGNOF & Saberhagenmetrics are vernacular contributions that belong in the Fantasy HOF
Has he? Kimbrel's ADP is in the top 50 and he went for $23 and $25 in the expert auctions. I think that is the opposite of cheap.
NFBC folks don't track the single-league data but you can filter the spreadsheet by the teams to get the league-specific players
I'll see what I can get
It's about finding a comfort level. He knows he is slow to the plate so the slide step is something they added while in the minors. Now that they've seen how it works within the season (runners are 30 of 32) they can decide whether or not it is deterring more from trying to run on him and if those gains outweight what he's losing in pitch effectiveness.
Since I watched the throwback version of WWE Raw this week, I'm going to break out some Degeneration X.
OH YOU DIDN'T KNOW? YOU BETTER CALL SOMEBODY!! Ladies and gentlemen, boys and girls, children of all ages......Towers of Power X brings to you, one of their favorite fantasy sleepers of the woooooooorld.
LABR spent its full allotment while CBS left $38 on the table. Even while spending the full allotment, many endgame players went overvalue because in LABR, you can reclaim salaries spent on players you drafted that get injured for an extended period of time.
Thank you - sent the fix request in.
Tango's work was mentioned in the piece that I wrote. Lineup protection, or lack there of, leads to more walks and more strikeouts, but has no effect on batted balls in play.
Recording tomorrow afternoon while I'm on the road for work. I've been recovering from surgery and sick since Wednesday of last week.
the Jaso trade
This was a fantastic read. Thanks for sharing your experiences with us.
Yes, which is why I did it and stated so in the article. I see many teams that go 35% on their split use a majority of it to buy the best SP & RP and another high end guy rather than spread the wealth.
this year's prices out of the PFM for 15 team mixed league 5x5 settings
With Odorizzi falling 36 spots from 2012's list, was it a matter of the guys ahead of him developing more, new talent coming on board, being over-ranked last year, or a combination of all 3?
It's been eons since I've played in a 4x4 format, but when I did, 65/35 splits were the norm. Anyone who spent less than 30% on pitching was looked at as a radical.
I consider the sweet spot to be rather large; +/- 5 from 30. We have teams that spent above or below that spot and finished in the top 5 as well as the bottom 3. In the end, it's more about who you purchase rather than what you spent and why great dollar values are ultimately paramount.
Somewhere in the top 6
and this is now done as well
teams & league now showing!
his ERA could quadruple and he could still be a top 5 closer
I will tweak the sheet and see if I can also freeze the headers later today
They're mocking strategies to prepare for their drafts. The NFBC participants aren't mocking just to mock - they're testing out strategies and theories. They do have a "league of drafts" format where participants play the team they draft and cannot make any changes and it is their most rapidly growing format.
They only do the mixed league formats
It doesn't make sense to me. If he was going to miss any time (say 25 games), he is rather unlikely to earn top 5 value.
here you go! http://www.baseball-reference.com/leagues/split.cgi?t=b&lg=MLB&year=2012#traj
I only used players that earned positive dollar values at season's end for this piece. I was looking for the % of players than earned positive values that were not purchased on draft day.
In all, there were $56 pitchers that went for $1 or $0 but that group of pitchers earned $375 by season's end.
Like an idiot, I deleted my hitter spreadsheet but I can tell you that the following pitchers went for $1 in the draft:
$8 spent, $67 earned
2012 BABIP vs LHP: .272
career BABIP vs LHP: .312
I would take Darvish over Greinke 8 days a week if the calendar permitted me to do so. Greinke's inconsistencies have been frustrating and for whatever reason, he's shown a tendency to pitch worse with runners in scoring position each of the past three seasons. Darvish clearly showed signs of "getting it" within the season last year and I'll go out on a short limb here and say he'll finish the season in the top 6 for SP roto values assuming he doesn't get hurt.
I was using this information for the dimensions.
The RCF fence is 3% closer at one point but everything else is very close.
editorial titles the pieces, not me :)
yea, pretty much :)
the complete data set can be found here if you would like to look at it.
The stats team pulled the data for me. When I run a line of best fit for BABIP against Team DE without that pitcher's PA's included, I get r=-0.36. The average difference between the overall Team DE and the adjusted Team DE was .004. The largest difference belonged to Catfish Hunter whose overall Team DE was .729 but only .715 when he wasn't pitching. Conversely, the Rays were a .734 DE when Shields wasn't pitching but a .722 overall in 2010
That isn't what I did but I've put the request in with our stats group to see if it is possible to pull such a report.
If I play with the starting point of the X axis only, here are the r= figures
DE >=.720 - r=-0.34
DE >=.700 - r=-0.50
DE >=.680 - r=-0.56
If I tweak the table to ranges of .025 for DE, I get this mean BABIP for each range:
.675-.699 = .302 (14% of the overall sample)
.700-.724 = .284 (67% of the overall sample)
.725-.749 = .264 (19% of the overall sample)
Yes, the BABIP's are from individual pitchers while the DE results are team based. The slope of the regressed line comes in at -0.57.
The conclusion of this piece is we really don't know what the change of location will do to him, or any pitcher that moves around. There is some correlation there, but with r=-0.57, it isn't terribly strong. The "duh" observation is that your risk of a high BABIP is reduced when pitching on a team with a strong DE.
The actual inverse would be the quick way of 1 minus the BABIP. The way our engine computes it is 1-(H-HR)/(AB-SO-HR+SH+SF). According to our glossary, the ROE component, that was once part of the formula, is no longer.
A high DE & low BABIP have a good relationship, but it's also not impossible for a pitcher to put up a strong BABIP with a very weak DE behind him. In the sample sizes, there is a trend for the highest BABIP to be lower as the DE goes higher, but the low end remained rather static.
Here's some info into the sequencing issue http://crashburnalley.com/2012/06/21/joe-blanton-and-the-james-shields-parallel/
Shields has been rather consistent the past 2 seasons whereas 2010 was a mess due in part to predictability and not having complete command of his cutter.
For me, I want a healthy mix of now and later but when in doubt, will always go with the prospects that can help me now. The fail rate on these guys is too high to hold on dearly to them so I am an advocate of turning them and burning them for proven major league quality for the owner who has more faith in prospects than I.
Here you go
Indeed - and the results of which vary greatly. Greinke's numbers are particularly intriguing because earlier in his career, it wasn't a problem but over the last few seasons, the gap between his BABIPs continues to grow. Maybe that's why he's talking about inducing more flyballs these days :)
Thanks, Doug. Do you happen to have gifs that best show what you're talking about?
thanks for adding these numbers
from the catcher's POV
In all fairness, I predict Edwin Encarnacion to hit at least 30 HRs each season
Anyone is tradeable at the right price. In a mixed league, I'm not ready to go $20 on him but I'd do so in an AL-only format.
It also seems fair to point out Sabathia ended 2011 with a higher PVORP and FIP than Verlander last season.
This season, I think it is a 2-man race between JV and Price at this point. Me, as the Rays fan, would be voting for Verlander if I had a ballot but am enjoying the fact the discussion has already been quite strong on the national level and people are looking at WAR, quality of opponent (SPR system by Gennaro favors JV while OppOPS here favors Price), etc. Another step away from the traditional metrics and narratives that have driven these votes in the past.
Sucks when things happen that way! I missed Edwin Jackson's breakout season in 2009 because I was tired of drafting his upside and watching him blow up my ratios every season. Oops
The point of this article was not to say Scherzer was deserving of the Cy Young award; I do not feel he is. the very sentence after the mention of Cy Young says as much
"Scherzer’s season is unique but not exactly award-worthy; the high ERA will be impossible for mainstream voters to overlook"
The point of the article was to show how he was performing down the stretch while the actual Cy Young candidates garnered all of the attention as Scherzer actually delivered better results making fantasy owners rather happy. The conclusion of this article says as much.
Last year's discussion centered around me just mentioning that Sabathia should be at least involved in the Cy Young discussion where his numbers stood on the date of the article, not that he had a stronger case than Verlander. As I stated last year, "I'm cool with either guy winning it but I'm not cool with it not being up for discussion and that's how I see it playing out right now with those that have the votes."
Discussion is a great thing - and it can be done without continually calling my credibility into question.
Best baseball book there is - I've read it cover to cover 3 times.
Thanks for all of your responses
very interesting note. As luck would have it, they don't play those teams any more the rest of the way.
This is Gatlin's BBQ quality stuff
As someone who first came to know you through your work at TheProspectReport and then has had the pleasure of working with you over the past 18 months, this is a fantastic success story. Keep living the dream.
Did this velocity change just start in the last five or so years? I absolutely think velocity has something to do with it, but this has been a growing trend since the late 70's that has ramped up in recent seasons.
I don't - it's too volatile. I'll check to see ERA-FIP gaps for a guy or year to year FIP trends, but I still take the other skills when evaluating a pitcher for any POV.
For me, I want high groundball rates, low walk rates, low batting average, and good (not great) strikeout rates. Lopez meets all of my requirements
strange - I don't have that issue and I use Chrome
The results are getting worse for him but he's going with more and more cut fastballs to righties. I'm not saying scrap it, rather, mix in something else. When your opponents start teeing off on you to this extent without a noticeable injury, something has to change. This is something I witnessed with James Shields in 2010 and it wasn't until he sat down and watched video and worked on his mechanics and sequencing in the off-season did things change for him. Sadly, Shields is falling back into some of those same predictable habits this season with that cut fastball.
The curve is a tertiary pitch for him for his career that he has thrown barely more than his two-seam fastball. Maybe this could be something better location and sequencing can improve. Here is where he is locating that cutter so far this season. If you compare those locations to the zone images in the article, they mesh up rather well. The curveball appears to be much more of a chase pitch than something he attacks the zone with.
Comparing the location of where he threw his cutters in 2010, location could indeed be more of an issue than sequencing. (all images show pitch location vs RHH). Lester seems committed to throwing the cutter in on the hands and has ignored the backdoor cutter he has thrown in the past. There is a risk with that backdoor cutter floating back out over the plate to become a flat slider, but his front door cutter isn't getting far enough in to limit hitters this season. Since he is really only throwing the pitch to a certain quadrant, I would have to imagine some predictability is in play.
It depends who calls the games in Boston. Do the catchers do it (as they do in TB), do the pitchers, or does Valentine? cERA doesn't mean much but he's had worse results with Salty back there than Shoppach, fwiw.
I have him in 2 leagues and love the strikeouts but prefer not to watch him pitch. If I watched his starts, I would likely have dealt him in April for pennies on the dollar. When I do watch him pitch, the stuff can be electric but then the location falters and the fireworks begin.
Very much looking forward to returning to where I grew up and meeting subscribers!
Came here to type what Paul did
He actually has a lot of autonomy in positioning the defense and calling audibles with the defense if you will. Adam Berry of mlb.com did a great job with this http://mlb.mlb.com/news/article.jsp?ymd=20120426&content_id=29715994&vkey=news_mlb&c_id=mlb
I like Cozart the best of that trio
I'm assuming the Rays had to pick up the entire tab because Guzman did not retire and tried to pitch in the minors with Baltimore in 2002 before calling it quits. I think back to Bagwell's last year when he tried to play his last season rather than retire and the Astros had to pay the final year of the deal rather than insurance.
sounds like something Bobby Jenks may want to invest in :)
Please focus your further comments on the article itself rather than the author. Complaints should be filed using the contact us link at the bottom of the page.
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Thank you for your feedback on the piece and I hope that you learned something from it.
BrooksBaseball only shows data back to 2008 so their data is correct while my qualifier was not.
His seasonal velocity shows a large concentration of his pitches in the mid to upper 70's. Last night, he threw 3 pitches below 74 mph. Last night, he was also once again working successfully away from LH hitters.
In all, I think the biggest difference between him and the others is he is somehow controlling the pitch better. Others have been more of a let if fly type and let the wind and gravity take its course but he's somehow putting it where he wants it to go more often than others.
That was more like whiplash last night than back stiffness :)
link died in the first post. Cobb throws a split-change
Cobb throws a Sobsey's pieces at indyweek earlier in the season:
"Cobb's changeup is an unusual one: It's a "split-change," he said afterward, rather than the circle-change Hellickson throws, and it functions quite like a sinker. Cobb's fastball sits at 90-91 mph; the changeup usually clocks in at about 84 mph. ("I rely more on the pitch action than on the speed differential," Cobb said.) And where Hellickson's changeup swerves and spins, Cobb's dives."
Double-check which RSS feed you're using.
should be the one you are using. You may be using http://topfhbp.wordpress.com/feed/ which was our trial one
I don't do any filetagging in the XML so it must be related to how archive.org handles it?
http://archive.org/download/TowersOfPowerFantasyHouror2Episode4/tpfh4.mp3 is the link they provide when I host the files there. I don't do any file-specific tagging.
We record the file through Skype using Callgraphs. I then take that file into Audacity and split the tracks, then export that mp3 at 44100 rate into my editing software where I produce the show and save it as an mp3 at the same rate.
The only difference in the XML between this show & Up & In is where the file is hosted. I've been using archive.org for the embedded player shown above & my familiarity with it. I'll try switching to what Kevin uses and see if that helps
I'm not sure you can sell him high just yet, but it doesn't hurt to ask. I've liked what he's done as a Royal but he is a health risk
That could go either way (a list of 26-28 yr old HR seasons in recent years). Power prime years are typically 28-31 but the rates at which these guys are doing this so far makes me very skeptical.
the URL on the XML hasn't changed. The format we use is an identical template of the Up & In podcast so not sure why one is working and one is not.
To be fair, he did say that agents wouldn't let them do this with kids they were scouting for drafting purposes. The team does do other non-disclosed things for prevention and their track record for keeping starting pitching healthy has been rather fantastic.
Oh yea, the seat nazi......that was entertaining. She turned it into a personal exercise class going up and down the stairs to kick everyone out until she gave up in the 6th inning.
Thanks for coming and see you around the park this season.
Adrian Beltre in the post-season relief appearance. Wieters hit the other one
We're not willing to suffer the wrath of stealing podcast bits :)
Those details are mentioned just below the show outline above.
http://itunes.apple.com/us/podcast/bp-fantasy-podcast/id524391530 is current location but we will have a cleaner one tomorrow or Sunday
Sobsey's pieces on him have painted a very good character guy who is insightful into his craft and what he needs to do, so there's hope.
They made the call to move Alex Torres to the bullpen yesterday.
If you had the call, how much more leash do you give Archer as a SP?
Hard infield liner, still nearly beats it out
working on the xml iTunes need now. Running into a bit of a wall with it but should be good by Monday
He was already at a rather high point to begin with. Will Middlebrooks making some early noise and Billy Hamilton is running AND hitting well right now which should help zoom him up the charts.
One outcome == many frustrated fantasy owners
118 walks in 1814 career minor league plate appearances. Carlos Pena had 101 walks in 2011 in one-third of the PA's. It's not a skill a guy can pick up overnight, especially when the hitter isn't one the pitchers are worried about hitting a home run. They don't nibble as much when the threat of the longball is not in play.
I was speaking in reference to speedsters like this. If a guy is hitting down in the lineup or is a sub .300 OBP guy, he's Rajai Davis 2010.
Needs the Willy Mays Hayes treatment -- 25 pushups each time he hits a flyball
Video embedding typically becomes available 48+ hrs after the game now which is a step up from the past when embedding was never permitted
Maddon's alignment with dead pull hitter Andruw Jones up and Curtis Granderson on first.
Ed Wade comment made me spit my coffee out
I'm not sure an 80 steal season is possible at the major league level these days, but if it is, Gordon will be the guy to do it. At least until Billy Hamilton makes the big leagues.
I have Donaldson myself in a 10 team AL league. I'd only want Olivo if I really needed the HR chances and could afford his batting average
Same -- he's set up on my player alert so his AB's come up. I saw the second at bat where he earned a five-pitch walk and didn't swing at a single pitch despite three of them being in or very close to the zone.
My local softball league? There was a play yesterday where A-Rod was on 1st and went 1st to third on a play and looked like he was pulling a weighted sled behind him. He looked like he was laboring on the basepaths instead of gliding like athletes do.
Agreed :) http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=16107
I watched most of his start last night and it was very impressive. 92-94mph sinking fastball with great movement. He dialed it up to 97 but gave up movement when he did that. The pitch that Pedroia tomahawked out isn't one that many guys would do that to but Pedroia is a special hitter.
The thing with Maddon is that he is always willing to explain what he is doing to those that are willing to listen and ask the right questions. He doesn't volunteer strategy information or reveal everything behind the plays they call, but if you ask him about things, he'll address them the best he can without revealing too much.
He said last night he spends the most time planning out the bullpen and the batting orders and does most of his thinking while on his daily long bike rides around his part of town along the bay front.
Thanks. I wish I could be here for every game but I am only able to do 25-30 games a season against my overall schedule.
The post-game comments from both Molina & Shields say otherwise on the framing. West's zone was an evolving creature last night that got wider in the late innings but also disappeared in the lower portion.
Because the only skill he really has is groundballs. His control is far inferior to the others. That said, he looked good last night, albeit as the 6th reliever of the game.
As much as Rodriguez struggles against RHP, we were a bit stunned that the IBB was issued.
Big fan of Cone - he would love to watch Niemann pitch since his stride makes his average fastball look better. Robertson is truly Houdini
The abyss? Much like Alex Gordon last season
Correct...an average of $10 or more rather than a total of players from all 3 drafts.
The variables really make that tough when you factor in categories, keepers, and even leagues that use toppers.
Please see the final paragraph of the piece :)
Thanks for the catch. The positional piece toward the bottom now changes to (editor will update piece)
First Base: 18 down to 17
Second Base: 10 stays
Shortstop: 11 down to 10
Third Base: 12 down to 11
Outfield: 34 down to 33
Catcher: 10 stays
Pitcher: 42 up to 43
Now I see what you're talking about. Something went wonky with the formula because I set it to round to the nearest whole number but 2, 9, and 7 certainly do not average out to 7. I'll make the correction now on the googledoc
It represents the average price of each player from all 3 auctions.
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/pub?key=0AhrPgS2ig671dHFsSGdCeUVHREFjQ0hjRmdCVVcxTUE&single=true&gid=0&output=csv for the CSV format to put into excel
and the A's named Balfour the closer today
Even with Cain, at this point in his career with his balls in play total, what he is doing it a true talent level now and not just a fluke.
Thanks, Doug. I think team context is being overlooked in a lot of these discussions. People tend to focus on park effects while ignoring team defense effects. After watching all of the articles on Hellickson's BABIP over the last month, only onetook a dive into the team defense.
When you regress Hellickson's BABIP against the team defense, a .270 doesn't look as bad as the .290-.310 range everyone assumes will be the case. I'd like to dive more into the FB/CH combo to see how that helps because I go back and look at a guy like Tom Browning who had BABIPs below .280 in six of his eight full seasons.
But now Derek has been moved to the NL league so he still has to worry about it :)
There is not one, so the call is on the line
Same dimensions as the other yard but without the weather factors. I think it will suppress offense a bit myself.
They actually had equal ERA-FIP's. Peavy didn't qualify for the table as he didn't have extremes in both BABIP & LOB while I didn't list Lackey below because he's not usable this season.
so 2 of 10 in here apply....mind blown :)
Might take a few minutes to render, but everything has been updated. Bolded text = green/good. Italicized text = red/concern.
Derek covered the Pestano argument a few weeks ago and I'm in complete agreement with him http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=16011
It does require flash so if you are on a device that doesn't support it, the link should work
My apologies for not considering that. I will bold the numbers where green is and italicizes the reds when I'm off the road today.
The tier pieces that Derek has been working on are essentially the same thing. We could likely go the extra mile there and make something like this as a complementary piece to those for people that want to see things at a skills level. This is just my own personal way of looking at closers as I do not tier them and instead look at skills and skills within teams to see what could happen when a job is in doubt as skills tend to win out on these things.
Swing-man seems most appropriate. You have to figure that Adams/Nathan have the 8/9 there so Ogando either helps Adams or helps cover injuries
Distinct validitity was never portrayed as that kind of sample size is a fool's play. If you have followed Upton throughout his career, you know how terribly inconsistent he can be as he falls into deep slumps. The big September caused me to look at how it compared to other big months to see what he did differently as well as review a few hours worth of video to look at anything different in his approach at the plate.
Results wise, he made more contact and was more patient at the plate than in previous big months and there was a noticeable change in his swing from the lowering of his starting point for his hands as well as a bigger raising of his front foot than he has used in the past.
I was simply showing that a change in process had more to do with his change in results than it has in the past. He could be the next in line with guys like Bautista, Zobrist, and Morse who have each teased breakout seasons in the previous September or he could just go back to bring the same old fantasy headache. We shall see
Just noticed I gave Derek the wrong animated gif for the swing. I have a longer one that shows 3 examples in sequential order that better highlights the changes and I've sent it in to him to swap out.
Yes - was planning on it for next week
I can't remember ever seeing that play out before in a league of this magnitude. Then again, I never would have thought Halladay would go for just 28 or Kershaw 26
Not a typo....
I did, and that is true. I also know that is where the $20 pitchers live so I was trying to maximize on the cheap.
The cost is low enough to tolerate it. $8 was my max for keeping Helton. His risks are not skills related because he'll still hit for average while some of the others have skill issues.
I have Helton at $8 in the same format as you and I am keeping him. Unless the back blows up again, he'll earn what you and I would be keeping him at. The other guys you listed, outside of LaRoche, should all go for at least double what you have Helton at.
I'd put Alonso behind LaRoche on the list above. LaHair behind him.
$38,considering keeper inflation, definitely works. If I can move one of my guys for a 3B before the draft, I would do it but I like the idea of sitting out bidding on the drek that is left.
Excellent article idea -- soliciting KG's input now on which guys to include.
I'm told he went for more than Gavin Floyd in an expert auction today
It would have been interesting to see them in any other division over the last few seasons.
Related to Torres -- have his Empty/On splits been like that in previous seasons or was this a one-year thing? Does his walk rate differ with runners on than empty as well? I'm guessing so with the much lower OBP but wondering just how much. Thx as always for the great work.
We all know it is getting published and I know for myself, I draft it as if I were playing out a $5000 cash purse league.
Lawrie is 5th among all 3B right now with an ADP of 54. He's going a full round ahead of Pablo Sandoval and Aramis Ramirez, and 2 rounds ahead of Kevin Youkilis. I love Lawrie, but not that much.
the average positional draft spot of the position.
Yes, but we're in the reserves and people do different things in the reserves. For instance, I took Henderson Alvarez with my 3rd reserve pick well ahead of his ADP because I love the control and the high groundball rate despite the rather low K/9.
That will be coming in my next piece on Monday. My hope was to see what kind of discussion these results created here in the comments and then look at a few of the extreme risers and fallers from this next week.
Thanks for the feedback - very much appreciated!
I don't think he is on the block as much as they would like to clear Abreu, but it still doesn't fix the (good) mess:
1b - Pujols
DH - Morales
OF: - Wells, Hunter, Bourjos
Even after you clear out Abreu, where is Trout? The opinions on Trumbo playing 3rd are iffy so it's tough to envision how they fit all of them in.
Latos was very much park neutral with the Padres as he had a 635 OPS at home and a 637 OPS on the road with the SD but had 1/3rd more work on the road.
Kenny Williams should stop playing with himself and get this farm system in order. God is watching
The hot sheet in that section was also a great way to find the new guys to pick up as soon as they were called up. Those were the last days of the true "sleepers" in fantasy baseball before the information age zoomed out of control.
Well, the NL won't miss the Astros farm system since there isn't much there to begin with. Then again, the Astros major league roster isn't in great shape either and you have to believe that Lee and Wandy were goners after this season anyhow making fantasy pickings worse.
I grew up watching the Astros & NL baseball but have since become a big fan of the AL way of baseball.
McCormick Field is a dreamland for any lefty hitter with loft in his swing. 373 to dead center, 320 to right center, and 297 down the RF line, albeit with a 36 ft fence from the gap to the line.
Thank you....I had it in my head it was 94 but now recall that my then-girlfriend was on campus at that time while I was still in Community College. I had to race to pick her up and we got back to her place seconds before all hell broke loose. It looked like a snowstorm in areas of the city.
but Mark Harmon was also in an even more obscure and utterly awful baseball movie - Stealing Home
Thanks. I would think it would be helpful in OPS leagues because it would show those guys who get on base as well as those who make the most of it.
I use the stat more as one of those tiebreakers when looking at two guys I have ranked similarly. You look at Jeter and Hardy on the current ADP reports and they're 6 slots apart so you look for things to help separate them. Obviously, the large age gap comes into play but the downward trend of Jeter's SecA over three years while Hardy has been over .280 in 2 of the past 4 years helps make that an easier call for me. In the current mock draft I'm doing, Sheehan made that an easier call for me when he took Hardy 4 spots in front of where I was set to take him so I went with Jeter.
should be a comma there after UCF :)
SBNation covering the Rays & the University of Central Florida Rotowire, & I help throughout the college football season at fantasycollegeblitz.com
He held pretty steady throughout 2011 so I don't see why he wouldn't be able to stay under 20% again in 2012. It all depends on how the pitchers adjust to him and how he adjusts to that.
Indeed it is....and that has been addressed in the past by Victor Wang. A good chart of his work to value prospects can be found here
Not going to lie...I have 4 packages of it in my pantry right now
Hi Jon -- I didn't break it down by actual drafter because there was some turnover in the leagues from year to year. I could re-run the numbers for anyone that wanted to see how it broke down for AL & NL if someone needed that type of drill-down.
That point was raised by Brian Kelly on Clubhouse Confidential last night and it and it really got me thinking. Since 80 percent of the voters chose not to publish their ballots or explain them, all we can do is wonder.
Still amazing to see his percentage total triple since he debuted on the ballot. Even more amazing is to see how further scrutiny has actually helped push his ballot momentum rather than slow it down.
Heisey's #'s vs LHP in the minors are found at http://mlsplits.drivelinebaseball.com/mlsplits/playerinfo/502317
The issues in 2010 he had at the major league level were also there in a very small amount of PA's in Louisville. Still, we're talking about 200 PA's of struggles that were preceeded by another 200 of very good success.
I've had 2 type II tears & resulting surgeries/rehab and still learned new material from this piece.
This first week back sucks :)
I find value in the results in the lower rounds to see who people may be sleeping on. In a 2 catcher league, it would be nice to have Ramon Hernandez still available where he is going .
Reserve draft is 4 rounds. The draft results are available on the ToutWars site on the main site so you can see who took what
Ratios are indeed tougher to make up in season because it is tough for you to track exactly how much you need. Additionally, you are most likely FAABing part time players within the season and they're not going to help you as much as someone playing full-time.
Projections can give you a ballpark on where you are at but I personally do not like taking more than 2 low BA types or 2 risky ratio types on my team.
I agree balance is key for drafting, but FAAB is more about applying bandaids to roster wounds or statistical holes. Chasing wins via FAAB should still be skills based or going after someone with incredible run support. Personally, I limit the latter acquisition to a last resort move and one I don't make until August. I exhaust the trade market before I dare take a shot at a guy who will wreck my ratios for some wins.
Nope - they keep me humble. Thanks again for your consistent reminders and lively discussion
And a happy new year to my biggest fan!
Reed was not in this discussion because of the stated cutoff of 50 IP at the MLB level. I stated my feelings about him in the commenta
The Quentin and Frasor deals should erase any doubts
If Rivera retires after this season, sure. I like K-Rob's skills because he is a great source of K's in the pen and helps ratios. Long-term, Betances could be that guy. Then again, a free agent acquisition seems most likely
Marshall has not been announced so I am making my best guess based on skills speculation and what the team has right now. I like Jensen a lot but he isn't flying under any radars like a Perkins, Thompson, or Cishek are. I do worry about Jensen's extreme fly all rate and how he could be another Marmol for better or for worse. Jensen should at least have been on the 1st table but appears to have been a victim of a large table edit that I made to it before submission.
I don't see Thornton finishing the season with the team if they are truly rebuilding. I very much like Reed for that job.
He is out of the AL thus significantly reducing the chances of Lind facing him
You consider all of these players garbage?
I would have loved to have used 1000 PA for lefties va lefties but that left me with just 8 players. That's why I included the language within
Thanks, Steve. I had planned on addressing reserve pick value as a separate strategy and do what I can to comb through the in-season transaction data to see who was acquired via pick-up for value.
What's the threshold for the tossaway player? $2, $4? That's where it gets complicated. A $2 player is typically just a $1 that someone else had slightly more interest in.
Where do I stop? Do I take the $1 player, then every single move that was made to replace that roster spot for the rest of the season?
I was working within the parameters of the league which requires FAAB for every move as has been the case of the leagues I am most familiar with nationally (Tout, NFBC).
I think profit from reserve picks & undrafted players can be an entirely separate piece because that can focus on just how much profit can be found within a season that was left on the draft table that would speak to the importance of draft day itself compared to a burn and turn approach of cycling out talent.
Sure, they are immediately droppable. That doesn't mean they should be throwaway picks as someone that you're going to replace as soon as the new flavor of the week pops up on the FAAB wire. My main point here was to show that more often than not, these picks are not turning much of a profit so if you're going to rely on too many of them going with a stars and scrubs theory, you have to score with at least one of them AND be deft with your FAAB skills.
The LaLob was indeed from LaRoche
I remember that segment as well. It was in 85 or 86 as I was still living in Houston and I remember running out in my backyard to practice throwing what I learned from that segment against my pitchback net.
I don't care for the category itself but it's still a very standard scoring category so it requires these types of articles to address what to look for there. OBP would have the exact opposite trend so in an OBP-scoring league, high p/pa's are your friend.
It works better at an individual level than a team level as BOS, NYY, TB, & OAK had the four highest team p/pa totals but BOS had the 2nd highest team batting average in baseball while NYY was 7th. Both TB & OAK were in the bottom ten.
Vacation just now ending -- I'll put something together & put an update in my next story
Brian -- sample size was the biggest concern there. I could think of 50 pitchers that have the switch in the past decade but I wanted to get a very large sample size.
Yes and yes
Is there any one position that personifies the whole "free agency is paying for past performance more than future results" more than relief pitchers?
It does not. I thought I clarified that in the piece but I may have not explained that clearly. It shows distance traveled but not any heights.
I definitely want to track the ADP #'s for the position as we move through the off-season to see how these trends are working. My early thought are people are drafting purely based on 2011 numbers without looking into trends or having done any off-season research just yet.
We should get larger sample sizes of drafts in the coming months which will show us stronger trends but for now, what we are seeing is rather interesting.
Phoenix is also 1,117 feet above sea level and it's indoor temperatures with the roof closed is still 77 degrees. Miami is at sea level and will be at 72 degrees like Tropicana Field is.
Using the info & worksheet in this article, shows that Dolphins Stadium had the following base park factors in 2007 with the average game temperature of 83 degrees.
Change it to 90, which is about where it is at first pitch most summer days
Change it to 72, which is where it will be when the roof is closed
That's an overall drop from 99 to 94 going to a climate controlled environment.
Rogers Centre has very average fence distances while Houston has the short port to skew data.
I'm just not comfortable taking Stanton in the top 30; he was the 26th most valuable player at his position according to our PFM last season. I'm looking at what he did last year and don't see the case to see him making the jump from the 26th outfielder to the 26th best player in the league.
Let's assume that the roof is going to be closed from Mid-May on the rest of the season thus reducing any affect the weather would have as well. I'm more concerned about hitting indoors more than the overall dimensions of the park.
Thanks for the feedback -- we'll keep that in mind for future pieces.
Thanks - I will indeed be in Arizona next weekend (Fri-Mon)
Some closers talk about their disdain for working in non-save situations as they don't have the same type of intensity. Tough to quantify overall, but when you see a guy like Valverdy have continual implosions and see his opponents' OBP rise 4 straight seasons in non-save situations, you begin to wonder if it is worth sending him out there to hold 4 run leads or pitch in garbage time just to get work in.
You're not. That said, .370 is still ridiculously high, even with a team like Florida who is middle of the pack with overall team defense.
Swartz covered a lot of this in this piece.
We've all seen trends reverse but this guy is an enigma. 2008 happened, and it's too hard to forget when you see good skills all over the place with him and then see some incredibly poor BABIP in the 2nd half along with a handful of implosions that mask his real effectiveness.
My comment was to their abilities as producers, not exact totals. They're still driving in a higher percentage of runners than the league average. They may see less runners in different spots of the order, but that doesn't effect the percentage of them.
This page shows the frequency in which spot of the lineup each guy hit so while they played a bit of musical chairs to cover each other, they rotated in the 3-6 spots. Young's league-high OBI total was fueled by him hitting fourth in the lineup and would have very likely been lower had he hit lower in the lineup but that does not affect the percentage of the players he is driving in, only the raw total.
As far as ERA goes, FIP would give us the best judge of that. I'd have to run numbers to look at the effect on WHIP but I would guess that we would see a bump of at least 0.10 for a traditional pitcher.
Another story idea is to look back at how team defense has affected these fortunate pitchers in the following season. There is no doubt Hellickson's BABIP is going to regress next season as .224 is nearly impossible to repeat even for the best relievers. The only question is, how much?
Vickery is how eBay handles things. If I place my high bid at $26 and you place yours at $10 but never go any higher, I get the guy at $11.
Fred passed this along:
1. Everyone in the league was great to me, even after I won. There was a lot of respect among this group and I think we all understand that any one of us can win the league if things go their way.
2. A lot of the top prospects were added to rosters for $1 several weeks before they got the call. In Tout Wars that means that the owner has to leave the prospect in the active lineup for a week and then stash him in one of the four bench spots until he arrives. Eric Hosmer was an exception and he went for $40, which was by far the largest amount fetched by a single player. Other prospects such as Dee Gordon or Jemile Weeks went in the $10-20 range. Because Tout Wars uses the Vickery system, it takes two high bids on a player for the cost to end up really high.
The one issue with NFBC is that there are no trades in that league so draft strategy is a huge part of what happens in the final standings. If you are punting saves in that format, you either have a ton of faith in in-season acquisitions or you believe you can max out the other areas enough.
I'm hoping to get that data from my friends at NFBC to do later in the off-season. The point here was that the best of the best that do these leagues ignore some of the long-held truths that others repeat each season. Tout has historical data, but it is incomplete in terms of overall standings in every category.
Probably explains why I haven't won a fantasy football league in a few years.
I'm more impressed with the guy the guy who does more with less.
Example: Shields has thrown 3459 pitches this season in 240.2 innings of work and that IP total trails only Verlander. Yet, Shields is just 9th in total pitches in the AL and has thrown nearly 600 less pitches than Verlander (581 to be exact). To me, that's a category in grading a pitcher and the fact Shields has done nearly as much from a IP perspective as Verlander, with 12% less pitches deserves a better grade in my book. That's 12% less pitches with just 4% less innings which gets back to my original point of he who throws the most amount of innings doesn't win anything.
After all, most would be surprised to know that Shields has a better ERA than Verlander vs opponents above .500 this season and 18 of his 32 starts (135 IP) have come against that level of competition whereas Verlander has had just 14 starts (104.1 IP) of work. Part of me wonders what Shields's case would be had he not gone just 9-7 in those starts despite posting a 2.19 ERA in those games since his offense could not support him like the Tigers did Verlander (8-2, 2.24).
That's an iPad typo....that should be "wouldn't" as the 1st sentence goes against my other points.
60 IP would get my vote over a staff ace. Innings are a counting category so I will ignore the fact that one guy threw 200 IP and on thew 220 IP. After all, because one guy threw under a Dusty Baker disciple while one threw under a pitch count disciple shouldnt matter.
I have never, ever, supported relievers for Cy Young no matter how awesome their skills are in any one season because I believe a staff ace coukd come in and do just as well as any closer if they knew they onky had to pace themself for 30 pitches and got to face hitters coming in cold off the bench as pinch hitters.
If you have read me long enough to form your opinions of me, you would know that. I am not going to apologize for trying to encourage a larger discussion for something I felt deserved more attention at the time this piece was originally published.
The batted ball profile hasn't changed that much so it's not a matter of a huge spike in line drives or anything. I'm not a believer in the .380 BABIP hanging around but if the double-digit HR/FB rate can be sustained by him, it helps his case. The slash line over the lat 400 PA is .294 with a +.800 OPS, which is nice production for a guy that should be overlooked by many in drafts because of his lack of production for most of the past four seasons.
or only the Loney
Yes, I do mean that.
When we have 2 candidates that are close together, the guy that has thrown 100 more pitches or 10-15 more innings than the other doesn't matter to me as much as what he did within those innings.
"it" is the discussion for the award and if I lose readers who thinks I'm being hyperbolic for the sake of click-thru's while gaining other readers who appreciate an open mind, so be it.
Again, the national discussion between these two are as if one is in first class and one is in steerage on a cruise ship and that's simply not the case.
Admittedly, him crapping the bed in Toronto last night hurts his case.
Coolstandings had the Rays at 17.3% chance to make the playoffs on July 15th
Maddon made some uncharacteristically bad matchup decisions in those last two losses. Why anyone is pitching to a red-hit Wieters these days instead of taking chances vs MarKKK Reynolds is beyond my understanding.
Looks like some of the stats updated overnight because the numbers I pulled were as of 10p last night.
What I don't value is wins, winning percentage, or any other total that comes from throwing a lot of pitches. Wins are as much about run support as they are pitching skill as we see David Price is 12-12 thanks to the Rays scoring 2 or less runs in 14 of his starts this season.
BB/9...K/9 -- you're talking about rates nearly identical to one another there.
This is not as cut and dry as some make it out to be and I think it's as foolish to dismiss CC from the discussion this season as it was by some to anoint him as the winner last season despite the fact Hernandez was the better pitcher.
I'm cool with either guy winning it but I'm not cool with it not being up for discussion and that's how I see it playing out right now with those that have the votes.
Why? Because my opinion differs from yours?
Taking off my neutral analyst hat for a second, anyone who knows me knows I can't stand the Yankees so for me to put out a statement like that says something.
But set aside my opinion and let's look at the facts - all from our own BP stat search engine
Support Neutral Winning Percentage:
Unintentional Walk Rate:
both at 6%
Home run rate:
Sabathia 0.6%, in the AL East, in a tougher park
Sabathia - 2.93/2.83
Verlander - 2.44/2.99
So, why exactly is it silly to say CC deserves it as much as Verlander?
Yes -- there was an article linked earlier in the story by Dave Studeman (http://www.hardballtimes.com/main/article/never-swat-an-infield-fly/) . I t points to work done by Mitchel Lichtman and later Michael Humphries on batted ball types and defensive regression analysis that "pitchers actually seem to have different levels of skill of inducing them (pop-ups)."
According to the work, flyball pitchers seem to be better at inducing infield pop-ups, which makes a lot of sense on the surface. Of the top 20 pop-up rates this season, just Lester and Halladay have groundball rates of 50% or more.
I showed above how both Weaver and Kershaw have consistently posted high pop-up rates making it a repeatable skill for them. Halladay has had double-digit rates six different times in his career but has also gone from 9% last season to 16% this season so his ability is bit different. Ted Lilly is at 14% for his career and has never been below 10% at any point point and he's an extreme fly ball pitcher.
I see two things that help - flyball pitching and deception. Weaver has that delivery that is incredibly tough to pick up and he works up in the zone. Kershaw has a similarly tough delivery but that hammer of his is tough to square up as well. Hellickson's comes from how clean his delivery is as he hides the ball and the fact his arm speed and delivery between his fastball and change-up are identical.
I prefer Madson
Sure, yet Johnson has the better FIP, VORP, lower SLG mainly because the two are polar opposites when it comes to batted ball rates.Uehara's BABIP fortunes this season compared to earlier efforts give little faith in his skills surviving next season in Texas.
Punch me up -- that was a poor choice of words. I mixed up the longballs from Texas with his numbers and am guilty of some visual bias with him as I've seemingly seen every one of his poor outings.
Still, Johnson has been the more valuable reliever on the season. It should be interesting to watch Uehara's BABIP regression in Texas next season.
That's how he is being used right now. The baseball guy in me is fine with it, but the fantasy guy in me is frustrated watching the best reliever lose out. Wins have not mattered for the Orioles for awhile now so there's no harm in seeing Johnson closing now to see how he handles it.
If all they want is someone to come in and pile up saves, they should keep Gregg. Looking back to last season, $3.5M was the cheapest that any "closer" went as Farnsworth was not signed with the label. If Johnson is going to be ~$2.0M after arb, take the money saved there and put it toward adding more quality arms in the pen.
Given that he's 2nd in baseball in terms of runs saved since last season (per Mark Simon of ESPN), not sure why his FRAA is such a tough grade.
That's a twitsted thought...and I love it.
I was surprised we all passed on Pineda, but this is also a group that tends to sour on rookies. I ended up paying $8 for Pineda in AL Tout and have been very happy with it, but I wasn't crazy about the buy on draft day.
That's the thing...the velo this season is where it has been. His pitch usage is not that dramatically different either. Mike Fast is 10x better at translating the f/x data, but I'd venture a guess that Hammel's stuff lacks the same movement when you see how less frequently teams are swinging and missing this season compared to last season.
Bruce doesn't really stand out in back to back months.
OPS by month:
There's no 2 month stretch there where I'm turning up my nose and running for the hills from him like the others in this piece.
Thanks...I'll look at that for next week
Thanks for picking me up while I was incapacitated today :)
I'd rather have Kipnis -- positional scarcity and I think he could be one of the better ones
Thanks for sharing!
Hardy is also a tad short in the BA for the benchmarks I set. 10 SB isn't a terribly high threshold but there is no doubt Hardy has been a 3 category stud at a very thin position, especially in AL leagues.
You owe me a new keyboard :)
That should be AL, not MLB. Thx
On a curveball, no less. For more on that, check out what good friend/colleague Tommy Rancel wrote over at ESPN1040.com.
yea, but I think Dan Johnson did that :) Fixing, and thx
We were asked to choose any song but that one
That explains it. I found Smith and Freeman to be very undervalued in drafts. I did several 12 team mixed mocks where I was scoring Smith as my 23rd pick.
Luck is the toughest thing of all to nail. My best one was grabbing Eric Thames and Vance Worley as my final picks in AL and NL leagues.
McGee did not have a dry spell of home runs the length of the guys mentioned. It was close as he went 145 ABs and 40 games between home runs at one point this season.
Curious to know what the rest of your lineup looks like if you're in 1st with those two dragging down your numbers.
Wow...I missed that clause in his contract. Thanks for the knowledge there. that's going to be an awful price next year for him.
I tend to think from an NL or AL only mindset. Diaz was a strong end-game pick this year in NL leagues, while Headley and Gutierrez were both drafted as everyday players. Gutierrez went $14 in Tout Wars and Headley went for $16. Star power that busted was pretty much covered in the pieces I did two-three weeks ago but this piece here was more focused on prolonged power outages which is why these guys were singled out.
Im missing the part where I implied I took great joy in Scott's misery this season. But hey, maybe thats why i got bad news from the doctor today myself. I guess karma is a bitch after all.
Scott was a topic because his season is over but he half a season removed from a career year, and nothing more than that.
I will have no smearing of Joe Thei......aw hell, I can't even finish that without laughing. As a lifelong Redskins fan, the guy drove me nuts. I think he told the huddle he was the greatest quarterback who ever lived as the broke to line up for that final play. Karma, it is indeed a bitch.
Seriously, fantasy baseball drives us all nuts and we look for stuff such as why Carlos Lee has more triples than B.J. Upton or why Adam Dunn hits worse than Adam LaRoche (yes, I know). It was more done as an attempt at humor because his problems are clearly related to his shoulder, but people can blame whatever they want for the injury bug hitting first his groin and then his shoulder this season.
I never said they were deserved, but if one wanted to look for a reason why their fantasy investment went from career year to bust in a matter of weeks, there's a reason for them. I'm not going to mix baseball and politics any further than that. If that was your belief at that time, or even still, more power to you.
Cust was non-tendered after the 2009 season when he had a 1.4 WARP and did bounce back to go 2.6 in 2010 with them but he only took a 150K paycut to return. Scott is making 6.4M so that's going to be a larger paycut for him.
I think Scott could still land a 1 yr deal for $4M and it wouldn't surprise me if the Rays offered that if Damon is out of the picture if he won't re-sign for less as the team has liked Scott for awhile now.
You don't see many guys taking a paycut to return to a team. With his awful 2011 and pending surgery, I don't see how the Orioles would want to offer him arbitration or even go into a pre-arb deal at a rate close to what he makes now. Additionally, it is his first opportunity to pick his location for his career and competing for a title may be important to him - something that appears to be unlikely in Baltimore in 2012. For those reasons, I don't see a return to Baltimore very likely at all for Scott.
I'm going to sadly admit I have no idea who that band is. I live a sheltered life.
"The only thing we can say with any amount of certainty is that Kimbrel and Venters are going to work less next season, which is not exactly a tremendous revelation"
The rest of it is certainly up for debate. Regression and injury can come up making it tougher for success to stay at current levels, but the meme out there right now that Fredi is going to kill these guys by September just isn't that conclusive to be out there like it is.
Since LOOGY's typically do not have a lot of fantasy value, I went with the 80 and 80 rather than 80 or 80 approach.
the safe and even often fragile vets have shown a lot of profit this season so far. Now the big question, can they hold up?
This is terrific - thanks to all of those who worked hard behind the scenes to make it happen & Brent and team as well. They're a great group of guys.
It is set at a 70/30 split for the dollars but no extra weight given to any one category.
Traditionalists :) Additionally, it's a league that allows us to showcase our knowledge and back up our writings in our own drafts. A majority of what is written for fantasy baseball still focuses on 5x5 leagues and that influences what type of scoring we use. I have the 2nd best WHIP, the 2nd best ERA, the 5th best strikeout total, but am 11th in wins so I'm all for eliminating wins!
We'll vote you in on your reputation
Trading a $30 Lance Berkman for a $3 Eric Hosmer. Someone will bitch about it, but in a keeper league, you have to make that deal.
At this point in the season, I'd focus on the counting categories more so than the ratios. Mainly because it is easier to track your progress and needs. Speed is easier to pick up at this point in the season as guys are promoted but saves get spotty because the guy you trade for today could be a setup guy for a new team by the trade deadline. If you're already bad in saves, move on and load up on the starting pitching.
I too find that most bitching about dump trades is rooted in jealously and owners that tend to be reactive to moves rather than being proactive.
Ha, brilliant. He is fun to watch pitch.
I am also a big fan of Ceda as he has the power stuff for the role. I'd like a Ryan Webb/Randy Choate if they were used as ROOGY/LOOGY because of how effective they are in those regards.
Pabst Complete Game beer
I'm actually working on this for my Wednesday article
The row header wasn't accurate there...that should show 22 and younger. Just as 40 shows anyone 40 or higher
It's a trait that runs in the family :)
K/BB is just easier to look up and process for most people. I'm actually OK with a guy that walks and K's a lot as a reliever. I can't think of a starter that falls into that group that I like, but Marmol & Hanrahan are guys that fall into that group that I haven't minded rostering.
Besides, we all know that if Scott Cousins is without a job at 38, Sabean will give him a 2 year deal.
If I can figure out a good way to mine that data, I'll get on it.
Well, he's not making it to Canada either. Aybar was arrested last night in Seattle for yet another assault on his wife.
Today's low #'s are still a continuation of the trends over the past few seasons. I do expect #'s to rebound as the weather heats up as it always as, but it may be nothing more than a heavy dead cat bounce when it is all said and done.
No wonder nobody was getting that one right :(
Caveat here is stats were as of Monday morning.
Myers is easy to explain - Ed Wade will sign anything that hasnonce worn a Phillies uniform
The quality of beer in Milwaukee is not up to Normandin's standards
I have a zero-tolerance policy for that kind of stuff. Love what the guy did in 08, especially his HR in game 7 of the ALCS, but his image is forever tarnished in my memory banks.
I was considering baseball as affiliated with pro team or a US-based Indy team. I didn't really want to mention the wife-beater anyhow but that's the reason why he's playing in Canada and not anywhere here.
Agreed. I just wonder what the tipping point is for the Royals as teams will point to the 25 man roster jam that is in his way. If you take Canseco off the TB franchise stats, the DH position has a -1.2 WAR in team history. It has been a black hole for the franchise with an aging Cliff Floyd the only other semi-productive bat in recent memory.
Obviously, a $2M Ramirez was a step in this cheaper direction but that situation is what it is and after watching Damon play the field, it is a good thing the DH spot came open.
He has been very symmetrical :)
I think the 2 HRs yesterday pushed him over the 200 benchmark for ISO.
That said, his 16% HR/FB rate stands out like me in a kindergarten class photo (I'm 6'4") so I find him a bit more obvious than the others here. I'm guessing people were assuming Granderson and Martin were byproducts of hitting in Yankee Stadium; I know I was surprised by their splits.
I can do that this week. This was an unintentional selection of AL hitters. I had Ike Davis in this original column but Normandin and I decided his injury and smaller sample size of MLB data didn't justify his inclusion.
3 XBH & 6 RBI this weekend against the Twins. It's a turning point!
What piece(es) of information did you find unsatisfactory here?
Fair points, but the guy we've seen for the last 1.25 season has not been a fun guy to own for the most part.
His batted balls haven't changed much outside of this year's rate being the second highest of his career. The previous high was pre-humidor in Coors but he still only hit 9 home runs in 351 plate appearances while striking out 70 times. This season, he has just 9 extra base hits in 138 plate appearances and is making the worst contact of his career. The recent run of success was nice, but still color me extremely skeptical moving forward.
Garza and Johnson are on 2 of my NL Only teams so I feel your pain.
I had Jeter in a 15 team mixed league and put him up on the block immediately after the 2 HR game in Texas. The only 2 offers I got were Nick Markakis or Beckham and I went with Markakis. I had such high hopes for the White Sox this season but after watching them face off with the Rays 8 times already this season, I still don't know why they're this bad.
I've had 2 of the repairs myself. Scott is fighting the same problem. BJ Upton had that in 2008 and was awful until a switch flipped in the post-season.
Don't get me wrong, I hate watching Pierre play and him hitting leadoff is as bad as Joe Maddon letting Sam Fuld continue to hit leadoff as he has. Throw Pierre down in the lineup, take the pressure off him, and let him run wild again. I enjoy Pierre in the stat sheet but he's a painful player to watch this season at the plate and in the field.
I honestly never want LaRoche on my team until June 1st. His OPS by month, for his career:
It is an annual right of passage in my league for me to send out a trade offer for LaRoche right about now and enjoy the ride for the final 4 months. He's making more contact this May than he did last year when he had a "good" May and is walking even more but a .216 BABIP this month and just 2 XBH is terrible to roster at 1B.
I'd target him at a 70% discount if you can get him and hope he does what he always does.
Liriano seems to be the pick du jour for bounceback based on current ERA and what not, but his control still stinks and his FIP is still over 5.00. I'm not buying there.
Bill Hall was another hot flavor in March thanks to the big numbers in Fenway and the move to Minute Maid but he's a mess this year. He's making the worst contact of his career and is showing no plate discipline at all. I don't care if he hits another 10-12 home runs this season, he's not going to match what he did last year even with more playing time.
What reports are you hearing on Beckham's work in the field? Is he still someone that is going to have to move off SS or can he stick until Lee shoves him aside?
He has to stop pounding so much into the ground. Sluggers with 50% GB rates are not a good match. His walk and K rate are identical to last year but the scorched earth policy on his batted balls has to change.
I'm sure the second trip through the league will change that somewhat, but he should still be K'ing guys at a high level.
Rays lack any 1B solution in the upper levels and I could argue they lack a solution beyond July 1 at the position. With the logjam in Arizona, Alonso in the Reds org and what not, there are options out there
It is more egregious given the fact he has arguably the best 1-2 punch in baseball. Saving closers for leads in the 9th is a great way to save them for working at all in October.
I think it is too early to write off Snider myself. I'd also argue Gamel and Davis both need changes of scenery (hello, Tampa Bay) because of expectations and defensive issues (gamel). The rest just don't impress me enough to care about them in only-leagues outside of reserve material. I always thought Martinez was a helium type guy and the air would come out and Clement's situation appeared to be a mess from day one.
Stewart got the luxury of hitting in Asheville which put him on the map with the big power numbers, but he seems to be on the Joe Koshansky path in that regard, without the big power numbers.
He's made some nice gains this year in regards to his plate discipline. I had doubts after looking at his Cal League #'s and watching video but he's definitely intriguing. He certainly does not get cheated in an at bat.
We are actually allowed to bid $0 on a player. If nobody else bids $0, you get him. If someone else does, then the player is awarded to the team lowest in the standings.
$0 bidding is permitted so teams can work on their team all throughout the season so in case they blow their budget by July, they still have a (slim) chance of getting someone on FAAB in the final two months of the season. We've had several Tout leagues in recent seasons come down to the final day to determine the winner so every transaction helps.
The release point graphs are quite telling -- nice work
I believe all of us in each league love the +1 system because blind bidding and paying what you bid on a $100 FAAB budget really screws you over long-term. Locally, my own leagues had resistance until we called it eBay style bidding and then it really registered with everyone and we've stuck with the method since.
Plan is to pick them up at the table at Gate 4
Allegiant Air flies directly into Ste Pete from Moline, Peoria, or Rockford. Airport is 10 minutes from Trop
Compare Fairchild's last two games behind home plate. The red triangles out to the left and right were strike 2 and strike 3 in the final Upton at bat. Deliberate? You be the judge.
Unless your league counts strikeouts, those guys aren't giving you anything, anywhere. The point of this article is that some guys are stinking in some areas but are still contributing decently enough in others. Dunn and Reynolds aren't doing anything offensively.
I like Wolf's skills, be damned the bad outings. Vogelsong gets the K's but also gives up more hits than innings pitched. Wolf has an 8.5 K/9 right now and a low walk rate. Home runs are going to be a problem, but I'll take the K's and double-digit win potential.
I have him in a league where I took he, Daniel Hudson, and Roy Halladay within the first 12 rounds. I feel your pain, brother.
Can he rub a little Head and Shoulders into it to make it feel better?
In Davis's case, my comment was more about lack of position (and his play at 3B). Unless Moreland completely falls on his face, Davis just isn't going to see the light of day here.
I don't, mainly because his splits are so outrageous. He doesn't get lefties out well, at all, and closers not named Dotel typically don't carry these types of splits.
Good news - look for this column each Tuesday. As the trades start rolling in, I will be reviewing those as well.
I really liked the plays on LeCure and Braddock this week - cheap plays that could pay off handsomely later on.
Tout uses the vickery/+1 style. The only other rule is we have to have the new acquisition active for the first week and there are $0 bids so if you blow through your money, you can still participate.
Locally, we do the vickery but we also do not have $0 bids in my league so once you're out, you have to rely on the waiver process to pick up players. Vickery is so much better.
Having to burn a week in a mixed league is a bit tougher. R.J. Anderson covered him yesterday and figures he could be up as early as the second week of June. If they call him up that early, it won't be to sit. Ideally, he becomes the left-fielder, Damon goes to DH, and the club makes a decision between Kotchman and Johnson (should be an easy choice) at first base.
It's one reason why writing this time of year on trends is so frustrating. I'm curious to see if the Royals and D-Backs continue to run at this rate because it would be a shift in philosophy.
We know Ozzie will run - he always has. He had the Sox steal 5 bases yesterday and I can only imagine what he'll do if Jeff Niemann puts enough baserunners on base this weekend. Jaso/Shoppach are 3 for their last 27 in throwing out baserunners.
I believe so as he has the worst command of the bunch and he's coming off a major arm injury. Cruz has but 3 saves in his entier career as his walk rate has always been problematic.
Funny thing about Belle; he was probably one of the nicest players I met as kid in college when I was collecting autographs on baseball cards.
I think he ends with 18-22 hoe runs. His upper back was very problematic for him last year and it never got right for him. Pitchers stopped throwing him inside fastballs to jerk and instead threw him slop away that he struggled to hit with authority because of the back issues.
Several of the NL participants have put up their team reviews over at ToutWars.com. I'd strongly suggest taking a look at their own reaction to their teams.
His splits dictate that he should be in the bullpen but the Indians simply do not have any better options at this time.
I am a company man, for the most part - but I also put my money where my mouth is (my articles last week).
Do you have a link for the Masterson news? This story says he has one of the four spots locked up.
I know he has major issues vs LHP but I took him for his strikeouts and hoping his second half improvement last year is a sign of things to come.
I'm interested to see how Rogers plays out this year. Obviously, balls flew out of the place last year but its park factors for HRs were much lower in previous seasons. I'm holding onto him because I don't have faith in Litsch retaining that job.
Maddon has repeatedly hinted the job should eventually be McGee's but early on, it will be shared with Farnsworth and Peralta getting first peeks.
I think the situations will dictate the actions. If a man is on third with less than 2 outs, then Farnsworth comes in as he gets more groundballs. If nobody on base, let Peralta have at it since he's more of a flyball guy. Both are very good vs RHP and only last year did Peralta handle lefties with the addition of the splitter.
The sample size is still small on Peralta vs LHB, and Farnsworth's career splits are very narrow despite being a bit more wild vs LHB.
I really thought after his AFL work and his work this spring, he'd get that rotation spot. I saw him pitch live vs the Rays two weeks ago and was very impressed with what I saw of him up close. I know control is an issue for him, but with the lack of SP in this league, the guy needs a job somewhere as he's a waste in the bullpen.
Wow, those are steals even if he "only" gets to the 28 HRs that he's projected to hit.
The beauty of baseball is the game itself is the same one our fathers and grandfathers (for the most part) grew up watching. The same cannot be said about football and basketball which have radically changed even over the last 20 years.
Having said that, the evolution of writing and analysis has only made the sport more enjoyable for some and allowed many more to view the game in a different light. Better analysis by basement dwellers has improved the product on the field and the in-game strategy by managers. In the end, those who continue to frown down upon the intellectual curiosity of the statistically curious tend to make themselves look more foolish than the targets of their vitriol.
That's good....because his news of moving Eyechart to the bullpen made me shout loud noises over the weekend.
Thanks. Don't know how I overlooked that. My 2 spelling bee trophies need to stay in hiding.
I find it to be a bit pessimistic but since I'm still rather new here, I am not fully in touch how it runs its evaluations.
Siano took Rajai Davis at $20 this morning and I bought Abreu at $21, just for the record.
He has 12 home runs in 1455 plate appearances as it stands now. I think 10 is really pushing it.
I know he has 3 home runs this spring, but living in Florida, I'm going to call some park factor issues into play. Sean Rodriguez hit six last year and look at what happened in season. A lot of these parks are right on the coast in the Grapefruit League where there is always a breeze blowing off the coast. Dunedin's park is less than a mile from the water. Szymborzki's 3 year weighted multipliers (http://www.baseballthinkfactory.org/files/oracle/discussion/2010_minor_league_park_multipliers/) show that Dunedin has a 1.13 factor for home runs.
If we consider the fact Davis has a 35% career flyball rate and that his HR/FB ratio has been anywhere from 3-6% over the past three seasons, I feel looking for 10 is pushing it. Since 2000, here are some guys with that <36% flyball rate with a 5% HR/FB rate:
2003 - Jimmy Rollins - 8 home runs in 689 PAs
2003 - Brian Roberts - 5 home runs in 512 PAs
2007 - Ichiro - 6 home runs in 736 PAs
2008 - Ichiro - 6 home runs in 749 PAs
2007 - Coco Crisp - 6 home runs in 591 PA's
Those are all about the same type of guy that Davis is which is why I am pessimistic in the move to Rogers Centre having any kind of improvement on his home run total. If anything, not having to hit 9 times a season in Safeco and getting to replace those with 9 games in Camden Yards or Fenway will be more noticeable, IMO.
FYI - the hit chart data from katron.org
By that data, he would have lost one of his home runs from home last season and all of his pop-ups would have still been in play even with the smaller foul territory.
I typically go that path with rounds 20-23 or my final $10-12 in an auction
I am very high on Seth Smith this year - he's the NL version of Matt Joyce as they share the same Achilles heel in that they both have struggles vs LHP. Smith's seem more extreme than Joyce since Joyce hasn't had most of a chance to prove otherwise.
Aramis can be a horse, the health my biggest fear with himn.
207 PAs vs the AL in 08
997 PAs vs the AL in 09-10
Whatever ABs he had vs the ALE were minimal in that 08 season.
I did know his struggles vs the ALE because I tend to look for reasons NOT to draft people when I'm considering one guy over the other. Davis was very tempting to take in that spot because his ceiling is indeed higher than Abreu's but I also saw the flags there that gave me pause with Davis.
10 homers from Davis is a lot to expect with him having just 12 in 1455 plate appearances. I stated my ALE stat concerns with him and I also look at his SpeedScore over the past three seasons and see a 3 year decline from an obscene 9.3 to 8.0 to 6.9. Oakland has him stealing 2nd 44% of the time he was on base each of the past two seasons so that where the bar is for his attempts. He'll either have to be more successful in his attempts or get more attempts to repeat if his SpeedScore is indicative of him losing a step at age 30.
As far as what I expect him to hit, he's out-performed his xBABIP 2 straight seasons.
2009: .361/.316/ +44
2010: .322/.304/ +18
I'm expecting it's why the PFM has him projected to hit .268 because that's a rather large variance between his final outcomes. Marcel shows .277, HQ shows .286, Hardball Times shows .276 and the composite projections Schwartz put together on the Fantasy411 blog has .281 for him.
In the end for a draft, it all comes down to what is needed by a team at that point in the draft. In an auction, there's no doubt that Davis goes for more than Abreu but historically, I'll let the other guys spend that money because I prefer to spread the wealth on production and find saves and steals in season.
and 8 of those came in one game.....against John Jaso handling some since-cut pitchers in the later innings.
A note to add that slash line does not include any AB's vs Toronto.
I find it is easier to make up steals in season than it is power. Guys like Bourgeois, Blanco, and Dyson stole 9+ bags last season in limited time and mostly later in the season which helped those who went lighter on it. I'd rather be middle of the pack in steals than in HR's because a player's production in that category helps him in 3 others.
And Abreu's LD% fell to 17% - his worst of his career which led to his lowest BABIP of his career. He's much more productive in the power department, drives in a lot of runs, scores a lot of runs, and steals 20+ bases. I'll take the more well-rounded player each time.
It's still a small sample size of 226 plate appearances, but Davis is also just a .213/.242/.306 hitter against AL East pitching in his career. That low walk rate of his hurts his his stolen base opportunities and we still have no idea what type of manager John Farrell is going to be on the basepaths.
In this case, I took the player with the more consistent track record (the known) over the unknown in Davis and his move to a tougher division. The risk/reward is higher with Davis, but if the tougher league overrules the friendlier park, you're left with an empty 30-35 steals while Abreu's floor is much softer.
The off-the-field issues really concern me. As I said, in a mock world, I take Cabrera, but if I'm playing this one out I take my chances with Braun. I think he gets more of his SBs back as well this season with Macha out and Roenicke in play.
I would not have taken Tulo 2nd if I had that choice. In the six drafts/mocks I've done with people of this ilk so far, I've had that 2nd slot just once and I took the chance on Ryan Braun myself.
In those same drafts, Crawford has continued to be in the lower half of the first round and not higher. Yes, he's going to have an amazing season but I'm not certain he's demonstrably better than anyone else taken in the top six when you factor in the position they play.
The PFM doesn't see Rajai Davis in the same vein as you do calling for a .268 average with 7 homers and 53 steals. I almost took him over Bobby Abreu, but that is as early as I considered him myself. The steals are nice, but he's a drag on batting average and the power production and his 2009 season looks like an aberration compared to his efforts in 2008 and 2010.
and the position's injury history, and his insane HR/FB rate as he moved to a park with unknown factors as well.
this year, it seems to differ with the second pick. I've seen Tulo, Hanley, Braun, Cabrera, and even Gonzalez taken in that spot in recent weeks.
That would be a nightmare to track but I concur there would be a lot of value to that.
Good point. Myers was on my radar late but I ultimately decided to pass and he's the only name on the list I serious entertained. I think people taking Edwin Jackson before 200 are going to be disappointed.
A ton of concern about him but this draft started on February 17th when he was still in good health. In the 2 drafts I did over the past week, he fell to 36th and 40th.
That 55 number shouldn't be too hard to stay under for a team that I don't think will win 80 games. Let him get his saves, but I could see Collins using him in the 8th and defending the move as a high-leverage usage which frankly, I would applaud. Skills wise, I have no problem with K-Rod and I think there is a smart way to use him so he doesn't kick in his 2012 option and still keep him all season.
Look at the Rays with Rafael Soriano last season - he finished 56 games despite being healthy all season with all of their wins.
I can respect that. I've been on record with my feelings about Hammel making that leap up for 2011 and I trust the way his statistics are trending over a rookie pitcher who had a 100 IP workload spike last year and probably has a 170 IP ceiling this season. Plus, the offense around him is questionable and I wonder if he can reach double-digit wins.
Opportunity plus athleticism = success. Butler has one, just not the other. At some point, General Pickett, errr, Ned Yost, will stop sending his slow runners toward second base.
I was surprised by that as well but it helps being tall
Yep - I searched based on height+weight or just weight. Too bad B-ref doesn't have a BMI factor :)
I grabbed him 60th overall in the Fantasy411 sloooooow mock draft and grabbed Seth Smith at pick 228. I'm 10x more excited about the Smith grab than the Ethier one but picking at the wheel saw a lot of OFers go before and after me.
Yes, you need to show some flexibility with the stars in the league. Inflation assumes that everyone will stick by the book but if 1 or 2 players in the league go stars and scrubs, someone could end up exceeding the inflation price of the player.
Last season, I had a very loaded offense in my keeper league along with cheap relievers. I needed five pitching spots and had budgeted $90 for my remaining pitching. I missed my auction because I was doing Tout Wars but I told my proxy to get Hamels and Halladay on my team. I had projected Halladay with a $43 inflated value - he went $50. I had Hamels projected at $27 and he went $33. I had the high money going into the draft and those 2 were the 2 of the first 4 names thrown out. I got what I wanted, but had to pay a little more, but it also screwed up the draft plans for others who thought those guys would be attainable.
I have no idea where it originated from -- I just inherited the team name. That's too funny.
I keep my team names as long as I win the league. Personal DeJesus has been retired in 2 leagues and has been replaced with I Like My Women Buehrle Legal with Chris Hanson as the team logo.
Draft and auction, as used in the paragraph, are events rather than describing the type of event. My mixing of the terms was likely due to fielding the multiple when/where is "the draft" questions in the 3 leagues that I run so my apologies for that confusion. The advice, however, would apply to either format.
"One point that I would contest with your basic assumptions above Jason, is that I've tended to find in my keeper league auctions that often the best fair value top tier players actually go early in the draft and only sometimes do you get bargains late. This is because of the classic laws of supply and demand"
Fair points -- I am looking at values early and late in the draft. If you can control the end game with your last $20 at a draft table, you're in better shape than the guy who has $7 for 5 players. There is a balance there between spending too early and too late, but that comes with monitoring inflation pick by pick.
Please email me with some details/advice....I have the itch again :)
For years, I always bought the first player in my keeper drafts because I found that everyone either miscalculated inflation or didn't do it at all. This is particularly handy if you're in a league where you're changing the amount of teams in the league.
If you have the significant advantage money wise, go get the 1-2 players from the pool you want that are integral to your strategy. You control the draft from the get go. If someone is going to drive you up on that player's price because they know you want him - stick that owner with that player and make them adjust your draft.
A lot of people say they want to price enforce but I doubt they have a plan in place if someone calls their bluff. I'd throw that player out at 90% of your projected value and go from there to get a read on who is serious and who will bow out quickly.
IBM PC here....luckily I was an avid fan of backing up so I had archive copies of my EWB disc when the first one was confiscated. I've tried to play the simulators online but it just isn't the same for me.
You'll recall I did this with Nelson Cruz in 2008 as well --- just took the Rangers awhile to call him up. If the rumors of Edwin Jackson for Nelson Cruz from those winter meetings were true and the Rays declined it......
East Coast Bias? I was a bit surprised by that as well but I'm guessing he is being penalized by an assumed injury or the move to the AL West will be tougher on him statistically with the bigger parks in Oakland and Seattle.
Ha - I put my money where my mouth was and dealt a $12 Vlad for $10 E5. The aforementioned owner read this piece and had a good laugh and we worked the deal out.
The guy that owns him in my local league is a subscriber here so any shot I had at trading for him went out the window with this article :)
Wow -- 385 is a steal of a pick!
I die a little
Each time someone reminds me
Rays passed on Posey
A mix of personal preference and league averages. For K/9, I'll dip down as far as 6.0 for starters but I want closers that miss bats at strong rates. GB% is pretty standard as the demarcation between groundball and flyball pitchers and the rest are based off league averages where I green light those 2% points above the league average and red light those 2% below it.
A mix of personal preference and league averages. For K/9, I'll dip down as far as 6.0 for starters but I want closers that miss bats. GB% is pretty standard as the demarcation between groundball and flyball pitchers and the rest are based off league averages where I green light those 2% points above the league average and red light those 2% below it.
I have not yet taken that look back at the end of the year against this but will put it on my to-do list for this season.
Glad you found the link. I had to to do that or make the text so small in the embedded window or subsequent image that it would have been unreadable. I've asked they bold the link for the static page so that it isn't overlooked by others.
I was taking Qualls as a 2nd closer in a lot of leagues last year - I'm right there with you.
Thanks for that catch - it has been corrected
Good points, Cory. There is no problem paying for consistency as the fail rate in the top 10 projected $$ slots is going to be much lower on average than the bottom 10 guys.
For my own comfort level, I'd rather chase saves throughout the year and draft closers after round 10 than have to chase homers or steals because I passed up good sources of those by overdrafting a closer in round five.
I could take K-Rod, Leo Nunez, and Joel Hanrahan in a mixed league and be very happy with my end results as all three would have been taken from the 12th round on back. It would give me enough saves to compete in the category while really helping my strikeout totals. Meanwhile, I've seen other drafts where people have taken two closers before the 12th round which I am just not comfortable doing due to past experience.
Middle relievers are doable. I'll pull the top 40 from the PFM and put them into a piece.
Marc included the link to the data if you want to pull down your own copy. My parameters for "good" and "worrisome" might be different from yours as I only greenlighted K/9 rates of at least 9.0 for closers but 8.1 (Nunez) might be good for you as well. I set a 7.0 K/9 baseline for my SP and a 9.0 K/9 for my closers.
Wow, thanks guys.
I've done this kind of thing for a few years in my own Excel sheets for prospect tracking. I'd conditional format each column on the pitcher tab and hitting tab so I could get a quick glance at warning spots as I inputted the statistics and then do some asking around on scouting reports or in the case of Florida State League guys, go check them out.
I found it was a nice switchover to fantasy drafts and if enough people find this format popular, I'll work on the other ranked positions that Mike and Marc have put up recently.
Had they not pulled off the Garza trade, how much worse would the pitching/hitting balance have looked?
It is a mix of both but I believe a pitcher has some influence on it. Hammel appears to be one of those pitchers who is throwing more effectively with runners on when in the past, it has been a problem for him. He is always going to be at the mercy of his defense, but he appears to be doing a better job on his end of to influence the situation.
I doubt he sees 20 games at 3B this season. The club was extremely displeased with his efforts over there last year.
Looking for E5 to get most of his PAs at DH and a 1B platoon situation if Lind suffers vs LHP as badly as he did last season.
I heard last year that if the Jays brought him back, it would not be to play 3B but a 1B/DH combo.
I am putting my money where my mouth is and targeting Encarnacion in any league possible. I wrote him up several times this off-season before coming here http://dockoftherays.com/?s=encarnacion
Which is worrisome for Shaun Marcum if his struggles vs RHB from last season carry over.
If there were a like button here, I'd set up a macro to have it repeatedly clicked. This was terrific.
Diaz is great, but when I have to choose between 2 similar guys with splits problems, I'm going with the lefty because they'll see more at bats.
It is probably the bitter Rays fan in me that they did not retain Diaz and let him go when they did out of the minors. He and Jonny Gomes hit in the middle of the lineup in the Orlando Rays days.
The guy who drafted him in my local dynasty league years ago still has him and refuses to let go of the dream.
and take him out of the National League where he can DH.
Thanks. I'm a sucker for guys like Russell Branyan in AL leagues at CI or DH but I don't want them to get overexposed to their weakness. I loved how Girardi used Thames last year and only exposed him to the weaker righties and it did not hurt that I had rostered Thames in leagues for $1-$2 and got a rather pleasant return. I wrote a piece last year challenging some MLB team to sign Thames and Branyan as a pair and platoon them at DH. It certainly would have been an upgrade to Pat Burrell/Hank Blalock.....
I like that move - risky, but a lot of upside.
With visual bias, he looked gassed. His stuff lacked sharpness and location that he had earlier in the summer and facing the depleted Red Sox in September should not have been a daunting task.
Garza has been reliable in that he has consistently finished around the $12-$14 range in his final value each of the last three seasons. Marcum, meanwhile, has seen his final roto value go up each of the past few seasons. Maybe it is just me as the guy who has watched every one of Garza's starts since 2008 but I believe fantasy owners suffer a lot of visual bias with him because his stuff is better than his overall production of late. You are paying for consistency right now but I am not sure you're going to find upside in 2011 with the many flags that are waiving around in his body of work
For comparison sake - all four of these pitchers went for $11-$14 in a recent expert NL only draft and Hudson and Marcum both went for $1 more than Garza did.
A final note I forgot to bring up on Garza - his K/9 over the final four months last season:
June - 7.5
July - 6.5
August - 6.1
September - 5.3
He also gave up 7 home runs in September and his OppBA spiked up to .314 that month. He looked gassed down the stretch. The Rays fan in me was more worried about him coming into 2011 than Shields had both remained with the organization.
I didn't mention the IP projections only because Bumgarner and Hudson get penalized for spending time in AAA last season. Garza simply has a lot of warning signs in play here and I'd rather take the risk of Hudson or Marcum improving than hoping Garza doesn't find himself homesick and missing the way Tropicana Field and the Rays defense aided his cause.
Or that defense
As far as I know, 2/14 is still the target date for that as I have not been told anything different.
Fair points, but I'm going on a stuff argument with Collins. His whiff rates last year at 3 levels were 33% (AA), 42%(AA), and 20% (AAA). Jeffress has yet to throw a AAA pitch but his highest whiff rate in AA has been just 19%.
That's why I think the job is wide open rather than a slam dunk case for Jeffress.
His lack of XBH in Fenway over the past 4 seasons is puzzling.
As a Rays fan, that was Pena's fault. The defenses shifted him heavily, and he refused to keep them honest. If you're Ted Williams, that's one thing but they were daring him to bunt or chop something to the left side as the 3B line was wide open and he kept trying to hit it over or through the shifts.
I think Young is a 25/25 guy this year - safely. The risk is whether he becomes a .225 guy again or is he a .255 guy. Every point above .250 needs to be thought of as a bonus. He's a risk I'm willing to take this year.
That's a solid call. If you want to really piss off an Orioles fan, point out the last three years of Markakis to Ben Grieve at the same age on a wOBA comparison. If he doesn't stop this downslide soon, that's where he is headed.
The fact Cano had more IBB last year than he did in his previous four seasons combined is rather amazing.
I have Gordon at $5 and have to keep him in the final year of a topped contract. He went for $6 and someone took him back at 2 years for $5. That's the only reason he is on my roster for 2011 and I'm hoping he can finally tap into to maybe 50% of what we thought he was going to be.
the staff I mentioned above? I'm still a sucker for Slowey, Hochevar, and I'll take Uehara, Thornton, and Howell back right now. The rest, they're DTM - especially Burnett.
Fair points - weak contact certainly is something. I think he gets a bump in his HR/FB to where he's closer to 9% than 6% as we has last year. I'm also curious to see how he holds up down the stretch as he gets a jump in his workload this season.
2 at $9 is as far as I'll go with him.
Absolutely. Everyone has to have some luck to win. In that league above, my 2 biggest investments were $32 on Ellsbury and $19 on Peavy; they produced around $9 of value for me. I spent $30 combined on Soriano/Bailey who blew that away closing, and picked Trevor Crowe and Danny Valencia as reserves. I got more from 2 reserves than half the league got from their CI and 4th/5th OF.
I agree. It really requires you to find a few pitchers that strongly exceed their expectations. Our example in the article nailed Brandon Morrow and got a pile of wins from Freddy Garcia that nobody was counting on. Unfortunately, some of his misses were equally as bad.
:) It was the best example I could find of a guy using a radical draft split and doing very well with it.
Shallower leagues because you can correct mistakes with a deeper FA pool.
I had a prime?
Over the past five seasons, he's had just two seasons of $20+ value in NL only leagues and those 2008 and 2009 seasons ring loudly in drafter's ears. I think that is a very nice bargain right now but I don't expect it to be there in March as more mock drafters get serious about their draft prep.
I'm still as surprised by that as the rest of you
Was just told it would be by Monday
yea, the league minimum requirement is a huge roadblock to the strategy. My local leagues did the same several years back because someone nearly won the league doing the same.
Thanks for the assist, Ron. I was unable to find that history despite my best efforts yesterday.
I am guessing he was trying out one of his plans to write about in the coming weeks. Ethier in the 2nd round was a stunner to me; he has to hit his max upside to justify the pick.
Yes! If you thought Neil Walker was a sleeper in your draft - think again. If you had Ludwick projected highly, it is time to re-evaluate that projection and see where you went wrong. I saw a guy in a high stakes NFBC league last season take Chipper Jones within the first 80 picks; I had to turn away to hide my laughter.
Duly noted. Bad assumption on my part as I consider ADP commonplace in draft prep dicussion.
Thank you. Yes, I play in two national expert leagues but I respect most of the owners in my own local leagues just as much. They constantly remind me that I won one of my expert leagues last year but finished out of the money in one of my local leagues.
Agreed - but this is also the time of year where the seriousness starts to kick into high gear as the high stakes players start prepping more intensely. I will be curious to see where Walker's value is 2 weeks from now compared to where it was this week.
I dunno -- this is a team that gave up Sean Rodriguez and Alex Torres for a broken down Scott Kazmir on a horrific contract. I like the addition of the talent, but the costs were way too much.
Nothing like a good old trade to nuke an article! here is the hit map tool - only shows 4 more HRs for Napoli rather than the 9 he would have had in Arlngton.
Hey - I read it as not so that should count as something, no?
I'll make a note of that to explain more clearly. oMs% is pitches swung at out of the zone. Essentially, the pitch looks like a strike leaving the hand but finishes out of the zone.
It certainly would add a new dynamic to a draft and inflate the value of certain pitchers. I've open desired to change saves to at least Saves-Blown saves so it puts a little more emphasis on the good ones.
Nothing is as dumb as saves..NOTHING! :)
I do not particularly care for them myself, but we had several requests to have them addressed so I combined it with a guy that I was planning on covering anyhow.
Still learning my way around here - duly noted.
The Rays front office is completely tight-lipped in the off-season so it is impossible to get any inside knowledge on what they're planning on doing. We can only go off numbers and historical patters with them and based on that, McGee fits rather well. Nobody was looking at Howell as the closer when it happened in 2009 as people assumed it would be Balfour coming off his excellent 2008.
I had Shields on a long-term deal after 2008 which just expired last season. Despite the debacle, I was able to get back into the money but couldn't three-peat.
I've long been a Slowey fan but his durability is becoming an issue. He's had wrist surgery, a balky elbow, and triceps problems over the last 15 months. Skills wise he is there, but until he is 100% healthy for longer than 5-6 starts at a time, I am not investing fully on him as I did in the 2009 Tout Wars draft when I spent (gulp) $20.
Shields has been guilty of that lately as well. His issues are similar in that when he fell behind the count, he all but abandoned his secondary pitches and went with FF or CU and his opponents' feasted on those offerings. I know catcherERA can be a fluky thing but I maintain something was there between he and Jaso last year as nearly every one of his awful outings came with Jaso catching.
Thanks, much appreciated!
Haren was right at league average - 63%