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Tuck
82 comments | 109 total rating | 1.33 average rating
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Baseball Prospectus http://bbp.cx/i/667
Tuck
(667)
Comment rating: 1

What an oddly strong comment -- "There’s no question as to who is the best reliever in baseball. It’s <span class="playerdef"><a href="http://www.baseballprospectus.com/card/card.php?id=47965">Kenley Jansen</a></span>, and there’s no sign that this will change at any point soon." -- considering what Kimbrel is doing. RHB are 0-for-45 against him and he's on pace for 138 K's in 73 <span class="statdef"><a href="http://www.baseballprospectus.com/glossary/index.php?search=IP" onmouseover="doTooltip(event, jpfl_getStat('IP'))" onmouseout="hideTip()">IP</span></a>. Also, of some significance, he has twice as many saves as Kenley! Obviously Jansen has been unlucky in opps, but the fact is he's on a 24-save pace. Five star pitcher, but unless he gets 40-45 Sv's, he's not a five star roto <span class="statdef"><a href="http://www.baseballprospectus.com/glossary/index.php?search=RP" onmouseover="doTooltip(event, jpfl_getStat('RP'))" onmouseout="hideTip()">RP</span></a>. Still, fun article at a good time of year for it. I always like drafting in tiers, so I like the format and appreciate the update.

Jun 02, 2017 8:12 AM on Relief Pitcher
 
Tuck
(667)
Comment rating: 0

Check out McClendon's comments about <span class="playerdef"><a href="http://www.baseballprospectus.com/card/card.php?id=70812">Carson Smith</a></span> (http://blog.seattlepi.com/baseball/2015/06/03/mariners-lloyd-mcclendon-fernando-rodney-struggling-a-little-bit-carson-smith-not-ready-to-be-closer/) At the very least that should drop Smith down in the rankings. I think Osuna actually has a better shot at saves in the next month or two, given how highly Gibbons thinks of him. And long-term, I'd group Smith with that Giles, Cingrani group --whoever is backing up trade-able closers. Of course, if Lloyd gets canned...

Jun 04, 2015 10:27 AM on Eighth Edition, 2015
 
Tuck
(667)
Comment rating: 2

I sense some snark. I've played roto for 20 years, won the CDM game, even wrote for Fanball back in the day. So I know when something sounds better in theory than it does on paper. Take the constructive criticism for what it's worth. You've got a sharp group of writers, but this article doesn't move the needle. That's my final word on it. Cheers.

Mar 23, 2015 5:21 PM on Wins and Strikeouts
 
Tuck
(667)
Comment rating: 0

Then perhaps it's the intention and not direction that needs work. The title of the article is "<a href="http://www.baseballprospectus.com/column/The_Darkhorses/">The Darkhorses</a>" and yet you have four writers discussing an extremely well known Top 25 player. Respectfully, this just is not a very useful column. Your idea about the Top 300 list is a good one. You should have your writers discuss some of the biggest discrepancies between ADP and BP's rankings. That would be a better use of your writers' insights.

Mar 23, 2015 4:29 PM on Wins and Strikeouts
 
Tuck
(667)
Comment rating: 3

That's as helpful as an article that has four different people predicting a 2nd Round pick might do well in Wins. I kid! But seriously, this could've been more useful with better direction. Who cares that <span class="statdef"><a href="http://www.baseballprospectus.com/glossary/index.php?search=PECOTA" onmouseover="doTooltip(event, jpfl_getStat('PECOTA'))" onmouseout="hideTip()">PECOTA</span></a> doesn't have Strasburg in the top 10 in wins--he's the 4th SP off the board! You should've gone by ADP, where identifying guys like Liriano and Iwakuma (and Pineda) can help win people their leagues.

Mar 23, 2015 9:59 AM on Wins and Strikeouts
 
Tuck
(667)
Comment rating: -1

<span class="playerdef"><a href="http://www.baseballprospectus.com/card/card.php?id=58507">Jake Odorizzi</a></span> gets a vote but <span class="playerdef"><a href="http://www.baseballprospectus.com/card/card.php?id=50704">Michael Pineda</a></span> doesn't?

Mar 23, 2015 6:50 AM on Wins and Strikeouts
 
Tuck
(667)
Comment rating: 2

Sounds like a good thing, and certainly a great compliment to everyone who has contributed their time and energy to building BP. Now for the important part -- don't ever require re-registration. I use my low user number as a pick up line at bars. Hasn't worked yet, but someday!

Mar 10, 2015 7:02 PM on BP's New Owners
 
Tuck
(667)
Comment rating: 0

Probably an oversight. If you're going to speculate in PHI, Giles is definitely the pick.

Jul 14, 2014 9:44 AM on Week 16
 
Tuck
(667)
Comment rating: 0

The blurb for Gregory Polanco doesn't mention Gregory Polanco.

Jun 17, 2014 6:57 AM on 10th Edition
 
Tuck
(667)
Comment rating: 0

Jordan Zimmermann?

May 04, 2014 12:59 PM on Week Six
 
Tuck
(667)
Comment rating: 0

Pujols being left off the MVP board will look silly in Sept.

Mar 24, 2014 10:02 AM on Staff Picks for 2014
 
Tuck
(667)
Comment rating: 1

You're misreading badly on Reed. Gibby and Towers are extremely loyal guys and Putz profiles better in a 3-out, nobody on role. It won't be a surprise at all if they use Reed as a 7th/8th inning guy before handing him the reins in 2015 (which Gibby has already said is assured). Personally, I think Reed will get it, but a four-star grade should come with absolute certainty that the guy has the job. That's not the case here.

Mar 04, 2014 6:57 PM on Relief Pitchers
 
Tuck
(667)
Comment rating: 1

"As a streaky hitter, I’m confident Moustakas will come around eventually" ... You're a streaky hitter, Paul?

Apr 18, 2013 8:00 AM on Early Lineup Movers
 
Tuck
(667)
Comment rating: 3

Maybe add "Q" and "A" -- makes it easier on the eye.

Apr 05, 2013 1:22 PM on A Trout/Cabrera Tandem?
 
Tuck
(667)
Comment rating: 0

Will was dead wrong and really should have known better. Very refreshing to see his work reversed.

 
Tuck
(667)
Comment rating: 4

Often the prescribed response to a bomb threat is to NOT evaucate the building -- and not because the authorities doubt the threat. Evacuating a large mass of people leads to greater concentrations of people (i.e., around gates or exits) and thus a much more attractive target for a would-be bomber.

 
Tuck
(667)
Comment rating: 0

Appel will be a tougher sign than Josh Bell and 10x tougher than Pedro Alvarez. Boras will go in with the position that #8 money is essentialy Worst Case Scenario. Appel could disappoint or get hurt (not seriously) in his senior season and still be a Top 10 pick next June. So they will hold the Pirates hostage. I see zero chance that the Pirates have Appel AND their first round pick next year. Boras will force them to go > 5% above the bonus pool. Guaranteed. More likely, the Pirates will balk and Appel will return for his senior season. Boras, horseshoe lodged firmly in hind quarters, will find a team like the Cubs to pay up next year, and he'll come out shining once again. Shenanigans indeed.

Jun 05, 2012 11:15 AM on First Round Recap
 
Tuck
(667)
Comment rating: 8

Nice writeup. Always enjoy reading about potential #1's. The romance, the intrigue. The promise of another Verlander or the heartbreak of, well, one of my favorite player capsules (2002 Annual): "Like the Cubs with Kerry Wood, the Brewers are going to have to be careful about pushing Neugebauer too hard, because he can be one of the best pitchers of his generation."

 
Tuck
(667)
Comment rating: -10

Where did you all go to Headline Writing school? Was it at the ... Headline Writing School of America: Headline Writers Come Here: Keep Saying More Words Seriously, worst.

 
Tuck
(667)
Comment rating: 0

This page should come with a Graphic Content warning. Kids, look away.

 
Tuck
(667)
Comment rating: 0

What's the consensus on iBook (Apple) vs. Kindle? I bought the iTunes version and the search function isn't working. Very annoying. Plus flipping through pages has been buggy (delayed, going backward when I want forward). Has Kindle had similar issues? I think I chose poorly.

Feb 20, 2012 10:52 AM on BP2012 Shipping Update
 
Tuck
(667)
Comment rating: 7

Then let the publisher know. Take up the space with a picture of the BP crew. Or a maze like there is on my kid's place mat. Anything!

 
Tuck
(667)
Comment rating: 6

Every year the boasts on the back cover get more ridiculous. "Predicted the collapse of Pablo Sandoval" ... Oh did you now? When you wrote in his blurb: "Sandoval is not the sort of player where pat assertions about regression to leaguewide marks for line-drive rates or BABIP mean much. Like Vladimir Guerrero, his exceptional plate coverage makes him more dangerous because he won't just try to hit your pitch; he can hit your pitch. You don't copy it or coach it; you just enjoy it." Yeah, nailed that one. PECOTA predicted .315 BA, 21 HR. Adam Lind didn't have anything negative in his writeup and got a 27hr, .282/.343/.492 projection from PECOTA. And who takes credit for predicting "collapse" for Todd Helton and Miguel Tejada? I know it shouldn't irk me, but it does. Either get more things right or stop making up reasons to boast. This is truly absurd.

 
Tuck
(667)
Comment rating: 1

Re: Aardsma ... Vargas actually took a full year to come back from the surgery. NY Daily News, 3/6/09: Expected to be out for three months, Vargas ended up missing the entire season. He wasn't available until October, when he pitched in the Arizona Fall League. "It's a really big joint and you have to let it heal," Vargas said Friday afternoon in a telephone interview. "We use our hips so much in our sport . . . it's just a difficult thing to come back from really quick without damaging it."

Feb 22, 2011 7:49 AM on The Injury Beat Goes On
 
Tuck
(667)
Comment rating: 0

I love good snark as much as anyone, but there is such a thing as being too patient. Hermida was everybody's golden boy a few years ago. But if you watched him you saw it was passivity, not patience. Like Hermida, Kila will be overmatched by ML fastballs. And let's be fair, Kila's big seasons in '08 and '10 came in his second full seasons at AA and AAA, respectively. He was old for both levels and played in friendly parks. Like Cal Pickering or Erubiel Durazo (on the high end), Kila will fail because strike zone control isn't enough to overcome modest talent.

 
Tuck
(667)
Comment rating: 5

Kila is a sabermetric illusion. A hologram. Seeing those comparables make me cringe more than watching Fergie sing Sweet Child O Mine. You're looking at a guy who posted one great year as a prospect in a repeat of AA (2008) and had a solid age 26 season in a repeat of AAA (2010). A few years ago Jeremy Hermida was near the top of prospect lists largely b/c of his eye; but anyone who watched him could tell you that it wasn't discipline, it was passivity. He just didn't swing the bat. But the numbers didn't tell the whole story and predictably he was eaten alive in the bigs. Kila has the strike zone control, there's no question. But don't let the numbers do the talking. He doesn't have the talent. He will get eaten up by ML fastballs and his walks won't be enough to keep him off the bench. Not to mention, the Royals have been something less than enamored with him. No call-up in '08, Mike Jacobs in '09, and then when they did give him a cup last year, he laid an egg. Kila is the type of guy I love seeing my leaguemates take. The earlier the better. He will be a total bust this year.

Feb 08, 2011 9:52 AM on The Next Jose Bautista
 
Tuck
(667)
Comment rating: 1

.296 career BA, .306 over the past two seasons (12th among all players isn't elite?) -- obviously he's more than a one-category guy. And the modest power numbers are less of an issue as HR's drop across the board. Of the 76 players who hit more HR's than Crawford, only 18 beat him by ten or more. On the other hand, of those 76, only three were within 20 SB's of Craw. Elite numbers with consistent health (7 of 8 seasons 150+ GP)... what's to complain about?

 
Tuck
(667)
Comment rating: 3

"enlightened, aggressive tone" -- Love hearing that. I was first exposed to BP through the annuals and that TONE was what struck me. Predict greatness for Jeremy Affeldt and Erubiel Durazo. Tell me Paul Wilson will be an All-Star. I don't care if you miss. It was based on something. Misguided though it may have been at times, it was the confidence of a group that was creating their own way. That tone has been muffled in recent years. Pilferage of some of your best writers was part of it, and PECOTA clearly took your voice at least for a couple years. But I'm glad to hear that things are changing and I hope it comes to pass. Thanks.

 
Tuck
(667)
Comment rating: 0

Adrian Beltre said it was the worst he's ever injured his wrist. Francona said he'll be in the lineup tonight. Safe to assume some short-term issues?

 
Tuck
(667)
Comment rating: 0

Welcome to Baltimore

Sep 17, 2010 12:50 AM on Dunn Enough?
 
Tuck
(667)
Comment rating: 0

Aw man. I wanted more BP drama.

Aug 27, 2010 11:18 AM on Surgery for Strasburg
 
Tuck
(667)
Comment rating: 11

I wish Will would break the story that he is leaving BP... at least that way we would know it wasn't true. Ba-zing.

Aug 25, 2010 9:24 PM on Playing from Behind
 
Tuck
(667)
Comment rating: -1

Teams don't generally call out their own players. When they do, I tend to think there might be something more there--perhaps something that eludes Joe Fan or even Joe Injuryexpert. Youkilis didn't know if broken ribs should keep a guy out 12 weeks, or if it requires rehabbing in Florida and away from the team. But there was something there already, exacerbated by Ellsbury's interminable DL stint and prolonged absence. And Ellsbury didn't exactly help himself when he convened a press conf with six pages of notes. Of course, he's not "soft" as we think of that word. But clearly there is something beneath the surface that has given even his teammates reason to wonder.

Aug 16, 2010 7:42 AM on 997
 
Tuck
(667)
Comment rating: 1

It would be poor form to advertise it here. But a google search should send you in the right direction. I'll say this, it's a business model any writer would love.

 
Tuck
(667)
Comment rating: 1

Absolutely. I am glad someone mentioned it.

 
Tuck
(667)
Comment rating: 7

1) There absolutely, without question has to be a Daily Prospectus-type article. I was not always Joe's biggest fan, but his article anchored the site. You have these great columns on injuries and transactions and prospects and history... all rotating around the center, which was Daily Prospectus. I was one of the first on board with BP, but I will leave next year without this. Joe's success with his daily newsletter should tell you all you need about the appetite for this kind of product. 2) Directed to the authors of the annual... Be bold, and mighty forces will come to your aid. Over the past couple years the authors have shown a strict adherence to PECOTA projections, to their detriment. The writers are more likely to defer or equivocate than to make bold predictions that might run in the face of the numbers. This was not always the case. In my opinion, what was once an informed scouting manual has become merely an interpretation of numbers.

 
Tuck
(667)
Comment rating: 1

FWIW, LaPorta elbowed, not kneed.

Jul 06, 2010 2:09 PM on The All-Star Effect
 
Tuck
(667)
Comment rating: 1

It's so tough being an O's fan these days. On one hand, you think you have reason for optimism. They finally put a semi-comatose baseball guy in charge. They drafted three quick-risers in Matusz, Wieters, Machado. They pulled off an all-time trade in the Bedard deal. They avoided handing out a crippling contract (though they tried, with Carlos Lee). And yet none of it matters. I will say this... watching the futile rebuilding efforts in Baltimore makes me appreciate even more the freakishly awesome job Tampa has done. And, in turn, that makes me profoundly depressed. The fact that a team has to absolutely nail it on every front--mdrafting, development, free agency, trades, management--just to compete with the Yankees and Red Sox... I may just stop cheering for a team and start rooting for realignment.

Jun 29, 2010 8:19 AM on Is It Next Year Yet?
 
Tuck
(667)
Comment rating: -1

Hell hath no fury like a reporter scorned. John, I always enjoy your thoughts on the Pirates but I think Huntington's distaste (distrust?) for the media may be informing your analysis here. So what if he misled reporters about Alvarez? He had made it clear all month that Pedro would be up soon; there was no mystery there. Alvarez himself hadn't been informed yet, so why should the media? I don't think a Strasburg comparison is at all apt. That "miserly" Bob Nutting is certainly no Steinbrenner, but he has paid out more money than any owner in the game the past two Drafts. And with Tailion and Allie coming up, that trend will continue. That at least deserves a mention. The pierogi thing... really? I don't think it is that unreasonable. And even if it was, I don't think it sends any larger message about the organization. The Buccos stink, clearly. But the guys running the shows aren't quite the incompetent boobs you make them out to be--at least not for the reasons you provide.

Jun 21, 2010 5:04 PM on Monday Update
 
Tuck
(667)
Comment rating: 1

Seems some places label it a curve, here Will calls it a slider. Whatever it is is nasty. But why the trouble in labeling? (To my eyes it seemed like a curve)

Jun 09, 2010 7:10 AM on What to Look For
 
Tuck
(667)
Comment rating: 0

Will, You've been fairly dismissive of Kinsler's ankle injury. But I saw over the weekend where he said that he'll probably be dealing with some degree of pain all season. Are these things just that slow to heal? So much for those stolen bases...

 
Tuck
(667)
Comment rating: 0

BABIP has it's uses, but BP has taken to beating that drum way too often. Not necessarily in this blurb, but this is just what made me think of it. It was quite obvious in reading the annual that the writers are placing an emphasis on BABIP, and it's a shame. Relying on it to explain away a performance--Bruce, Kinsler, and Hamels come to mind--misses a LOT of what was going on with those players. You look at it and say that Bruce was unlucky, while a scout will look at Bruce and tell you that his approach at the plate is terrible and his swing produces too many fly balls. I really think BP needs to be more judicious in the way it uses BABIP.

 
Tuck
(667)
Comment rating: 4

I'm not buying the Liriano-to-closer speculation at all, at least not until/unless he fails again as a starter. The Twins don't have a true #1; they're not going to take the only arm who could be worthy of that mantle and put it in a 65 ip role. And especially not when there are open questions whether he'd be good in that role, or could physically handle it. Seems awfully unnecessary, and very un-Twins-like.

Mar 14, 2010 10:01 PM on Weekend Update
 
Tuck
(667)
Comment rating: 0

PECOTA only misses by about 20 saves on Valverde. How can any closer only get 24 saves, let alone one on a .500 type team in a competitive division? He'll get 35 easy, solid sleeper for 45. PECOTA does many things well, offering advice on fantasy closers is not one.

Mar 10, 2010 4:30 PM on Closers
 
Tuck
(667)
Comment rating: 0

The difference between Crawford and Ellsbury is not this great. I think Ellsbury reasonably has +10-15 sb on him (I think 65 to 50), with equal Runs. HR difference is accurate, but doesn't negate the SB gap.

 
Tuck
(667)
Comment rating: 0

PECOTA never does a good job with stolen bases. Ellsbury will get 60-65, minimum.

Mar 05, 2010 3:32 PM on Center Fielders
 
Tuck
(667)
Comment rating: 1

Iannetta's poor BABIP was the result of an awful Home Run Derby-type approach he had at the plate. You hit as many fly balls as he did, your average on balls in play is going to be poor. I think he'll bounce back nicely, but call it what it was. He was bad, not unlucky.

Feb 28, 2010 10:20 AM on Catcher rankings
 
Tuck
(667)
Comment rating: 0

Is PECOTA ever gonna give Youk the credit he deserves? And why can't we get the proper batting order in there. VMart-Youk-Papi slated to hit 3 thru 5.

 
Tuck
(667)
Comment rating: 0

It took a circuitous route to arrive at a Jim Rice jab. Well played, thought for sure it'd be Sheehan.

Feb 15, 2010 11:17 PM on Interleague Time
 
Tuck
(667)
Comment rating: 23

The Verducci Effect is a fancy way of saying that pitchers get hurt. It seems beneath the rigorous, outcome-oriented work BP has made their name on. Frankly, I am shocked that you continue your full-throated endorsement. Verducci pitchers are, by definition, coming off healthy, injury-free seasons that garnered some measure of success. It is likely that, as a group, those pitchers will regress the next year. And taking out a healthful season makes makes it more likely that the next year will be something less than healthy. And then there are the results. Last year Verducci red-flagged 10 pitchers: Tim Lincecum, Jon Lester, Clayton Kershaw, Jair Jurrjens, Cole Hamels, Chad Billingsley, Dana Eveland, Mike Pelfrey, John Danks, and Jon Niese. Even with a lone sample, I think it needs to be addressed when the results point so far in the opposite direction. If not by Verducci himself than by the guy who gave name to an "Effect" that just produced a Cy Young winner and the best pitcher in the AL over the last five months. I was looking into Brett Anderson last week and found that 12 SP's in the last 20 years have thrown a 175+ ip season by his age (21). They are: Anderson, Cahill, Felix (x2), Cain, Kazmir, Greinke, Bonderman, Sabathia (x2), Ankiel, Valdez, A.Fernandez, Avery. Of the 10 we know, only two who had issues the next year--Greinke and Ankiel. And both of those were psychological. Ten pitchers at age 20-21 putting up huge innings increases, and the Effect--strictly speaking--has applied to zero of them. I'm sure other commenters will have more insightful critiques, but this is something that deserves to be fleshed out.

Feb 15, 2010 11:08 PM on June 6-8, 2002
 
Tuck
(667)
Comment rating: 0

Sheehan had to have penned the blurb on Ellsbury

Feb 14, 2010 9:42 PM on Interleague Time
 
Tuck
(667)
Comment rating: 0

Ships from Indy? Finally, something good comes from living in SW Ohio.

Feb 08, 2010 1:54 PM on 2002's Best Bargains
 
Tuck
(667)
Comment rating: 0

I think the team plans for Nick Johnson to hit 2nd.

 
Tuck
(667)
Comment rating: 4

I enjoy your writing and am grateful to have fantasy content here in January. But... I'm just not sure about this approach. I can't say I enjoy going through the rankings to this extreme. Maybe it's just me, and if so then please disregard. But we all know how the inherent difficulty (impossibility?) of any type of fantasy rankings. And quite frankly, there's something uncomfortable about reading your self-flagellation (and self-congratulation, too ;). We all get things right and wrong. Asking us to account for our rankings 10 months hence just seems mean. What I would propose maybe for next year is a series that highlights in greater depth the guys you were most right or wrong about. What did we learn about Verlander than can help us going forward? What did we miss on Big Unit that could have saved us a draft pick? I know how much work goes into these, and again I appreciate the content. But I think greater depth with fewer players might be more valuable (and easier on your ego). Take care.

 
Tuck
(667)
Comment rating: 0

The cases of Gregg and Jacobs make FLA seem ahead of the curve on arb guys, but isn't it laudable only if they actually spend the money they save? Wins are cheaper than they have been in years, and these guys sit on their hands. I can't commend them for making purely financial decisions that just happen to be good baseball moves. And don't the Willingham move and today's Uggla deal make their arbitration resume seem less impressive? If they reverse that move they have Coghlan at 2b, Willingham "playing" LF for $4 mil and some legit (non-Bonifacio) prospects under their control.

Jan 18, 2010 10:16 PM on NL Ketchup
 
Tuck
(667)
Comment rating: -6

Talk about being different for the sake of being different. Voting Haren over Carpenter is absurd by almost any objective or subjective means of analysis. But your unceasing desire to challenge the consensus (as well-reasonsed as it might be) was too much to resist. This is embarrassing for you and BP.

Nov 20, 2009 8:36 AM on NL Cy Young
 
Tuck
(667)
Comment rating: 4

Agree completely. Not to mention, Sheehan doesn't even address the substance of Zimmerman's quote. He's not saying that the kid shouldn't negotiate, or that Strasburg's situation is like his own. He's saying that the kid shouldn't be a dumbass. Zim gives a dollar amount--15 or 16 million. If the Nats offer that and Strasburg says no, then it's malpractice by the adviser and sheer stupidity by the player. Write that column. This is drivel.

 
Tuck
(667)
Comment rating: 0

Having had the privilege of watching the Reds every game the last few years, it is obvious that Edwin Encarnacion had to go. Terrible fundamental player, lackadasical and unfocused... exactly what CIN does not need. He won't be a major leaguer in two years. So they pay $10 mil or so for an erstwhile stud who can still pick it and rack some doubles (HR's in GAB?). If he plays 130 games next year it will be worth it, easily. And they gain some ancillary if incalculable benefits in the clubhouse and with fans. The only problem I might have is not with the money, but the prospects. That seemed a bit generous. But, again, E.Ency is on his way to sub-replacement, so it evens out.

Aug 02, 2009 6:03 AM on Deadline Day Recap
 
Tuck
(667)
Comment rating: 13

First, you are arguing at the margins--the last couple roster spots. Buck up, Joe! There are plenty of stars to go around. And the presence of Jason Marquis is unlikely to affect how fans remember this game. We seemed to get through the Steinbach Crisis of '88 pretty well. Plus, the margins themselves are set by Selig. So take the last 3 players from each roster and just put that on his tab. But the real reason you stew in your outrage alone gets at something fundamental in how you watch and understand baseball. Your vision of the Joe Sheehan All-Star game is remarkably stale and uninspired. Quite frankly, nobody wants to watch your game. Nobody wants to watch a game whose invites are sent out before the season, its qualifications based on aggregate stats over a period of years. Fans turn out each season--indeed, each night--with a sense of wonder, a belief that in any given year, on any given night, anything can happen. That's why we don't get outraged when a 28 year-old erstwhile utility guy gets a spot, or why we vote for a 37 year-old enjoying the best two months of his career. It is not because we (fans, players, managers) don't understand what it means to be an All-Star, or that we think Ben Zobrist is superior to Alex Rodriguez. It is because having those players in there reminds us of why this game is so damn good. And why we keep turning out. But "wonder" isn't part of the calculus at BP. And that's OK. Your unceasing cynicism is responsible for some real breakthroughs is how the game is understood. It just happens to be a liability here.

Jul 06, 2009 10:34 PM on The All-Star Selections
 
Tuck
(667)
Comment rating: 0

Joe, If the fans, players, and managers have a different conception of the All-Star game than you do, maybe they're not the ones getting it wrong.

Jul 06, 2009 7:51 PM on The All-Star Selections
 
Tuck
(667)
Comment rating: 3

Good catch. Bit of a straw man from Sheehan. The MLBPA was reviled. The players were reviled. The owners were reviled. There was much reviling going on.

Jun 23, 2009 4:13 PM on Giving Don Fehr His Due
 
Tuck
(667)
Comment rating: 1

Blaming the media is a lazy rhetorical device. And rationalizing away the MLBPA's role in PEDs as a privacy issue is insulting to my intelligence. Young ballplayers continue to get paid pennies on the dollar, an injustice you yourself have discussed in some detail. Does that not fall on Fehr? The unceasing emphasis on free agent contracts has hurt the rank-and-file, youngins and veterans alike.

Jun 23, 2009 4:12 PM on Giving Don Fehr His Due
 
Tuck
(667)
Comment rating: 0

whither Qualls?

Jun 08, 2009 11:14 AM on The Sixth Tool
 
Tuck
(667)
Comment rating: -2

stupid Canadians

May 16, 2009 8:09 AM on Game Four
 
Tuck
(667)
Comment rating: -1

Nah. Zero chance LaRussa puts a healthy Carpenter in the pen. I thought you might have something more substantive.

May 13, 2009 11:25 AM on The Fourth or Fifth Seal
 
Tuck
(667)
Comment rating: 0

PECOTA's irrational exuberance toward Chris B. Young threatens to undermine the entire system.

May 13, 2009 11:10 AM on October 22-28
 
Tuck
(667)
Comment rating: 0

I assume you mean Carpenter would moved to the bullpen temporarily, while he builds back up?

May 13, 2009 11:00 AM on The Fourth or Fifth Seal
 
Tuck
(667)
Comment rating: 2

Defining baseball story of the year and we get "let's see what the All-Star ballots look like?" That's it?

May 07, 2009 8:22 PM on Manny's Return
 
Tuck
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Is there any reasonable chance that he was taking this for a "personal health problem" unrelated to the effects of steroid use? I really want to believe.

May 07, 2009 12:02 PM on Your Mileage May Vary
 
Tuck
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Comment rating: -1

When should we start hearing about Chris Carpenter's progress? Only thing I've heard since the injury is that he's trying to quit chewing tobacco through acupuncture. Interesting, but I'm more worried about the oblique.

Apr 29, 2009 9:26 AM on Same Old Stories
 
Tuck
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Comment rating: -3

A good article, but an unnecessary one. The ball is quite clearly juiced. I'll wait patiently for numbers after the season, and postmortem analyses. But sometimes, contrary to the BP credo, the eyes are enough. The most recent examples: Ryan Zimmerman's 2nd HR last night, Nick Johnson's 2nd deck shot, Magglio's opposite field pop up, and Miguel Olivo's first oppo field HR since 2006. And that was one night. Other examples: Pujols 441 ft shot over the weekend, and his opposite field poke last week vs. NYM, which appeared to surprise even Albert. And Alberto Callaspo's first home run in nearly 500 PA's (into the wind). Jay Bruce's first HR on Sunday. There are a couple examples every night of balls that would not be leaving the yard last year. Simple as that. The parks play a role, as does the later start and warmer weather. But HR's are going to be up in a big way this year and it's because of the ball.

Apr 28, 2009 10:09 AM on On the Rise
 
Tuck
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Does Kershaw get included in that Burnett, Greinke, Billingsley group? Why do you hate Koufax II?

Apr 16, 2009 4:25 PM on Fixer-Uppers
 
Tuck
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Good article, and an interesting thought. But I think you overestimate the level of interest other teams would have in Kazmir, and what the Rays could get in return. Seems to me his imperfections are well known. The guy can't make it past the 6th, can't stay healthy, and doesn't have a build that suggests longevity. Even in an ostensibly healthy 2008, Kaz was unable to throw his normal slider. Any team who would be interested must recognize that Kazmir is a big risk, and would offer a package that took that risk into account. Which puts the Rays in a spot where they would trade a talented if overrated young pitcher with a reasonable contract for something less than an optimal return.

 
Tuck
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"We have had zero conversations with Pedro," general manager Ed Wade said. "I have absolutely no idea where that is coming from."

Mar 17, 2009 9:28 PM on Hit-by-Pitch Rates
 
Tuck
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The steroids/media conversation here has been hugely disappointing. Sheehan\'s piece from the other day was embarrassing. But so be it. I pay for BP expecting a heaping helping of pomposity and indignation. FWIW, Will, Hafner was asked about steroids. I\'m not sure what kamikaze reporter dared to ask him. I\'m sure you\'ll pour one out for him though. MLB.com story from last week... \"a reporter asked Pronk point-blank if he had used steroids. \"I\'ve never used steroids,\" Hafner told the [Cleveland] Plain Dealer. \"I know I did things the right way, and that gives me peace of mind,\" he said. \"But it\'s almost pointless to try and defend yourself.\"

Feb 21, 2009 12:24 PM on The Men In Black
 
Tuck
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Comment rating: 6

After reading this column, I\'m just glad there weren\'t 200 Joe Sheehans in attendance at that press conference--\"ok, sounds good to me. who wants to get lunch?\" Alex was open in his press conference. He admitted that he and his \"cousin\" (no name given) bought \"boli\" (experts have no knowledge of such a substance) in the DR and injected each other. He said it was the only substance he took (he reportedly also tested positive for testosterone). He said that he didn\'t know it was illegal (but knew he couldn\'t ask anyone about it). And he stopped doing it because he had a neck injury and got scared (he did not identify any health issues that \"boli\" caused). People don\'t like being lied to, Joe. The public, the media, no one likes being taken for a fool. That\'s why Alex doesn\'t yet have the forgiveness granted Giambi and Pettitte. \"Whether you think he would have been there absent Selena Roberts\' reporting\" ... that phrase alone renders inert anything before or after. That you would even include that, Joe, shows you\'ve got a highly distorted viewpoint on this. Another very disappointing effort.

Feb 19, 2009 7:02 AM on The Rush to Judgment
 
Tuck
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Comment rating: 1

Not to pick out one particular projection, but how does Soriano drive in 119 while scoring 103? Where\'s the formula have him hitting in the lineup?

Feb 12, 2009 12:05 PM on Florida Fraud
 
Tuck
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Comment rating: 1

For a well-reasoned, appropriate response to this, check out Doug Glanville\'s op-ed in the NY Times, which highlights the privacy issues while not ignoring the icon at the heart of the story. Also see Rob Neyer\'s blog for his response to the interview itself. I think both of those touch on the issues involved better than this particular article.

Feb 09, 2009 8:05 PM on Stupid Media Tricks
 
Tuck
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Comment rating: -1

Blame the Media! I\'m curious Joe how you think a reporter should have blown open the story of steroids in baseball. Take me back to 1998 and explain the mechanics of that for me. And also walk me through why you think a reporter would choose to look the other way, if he had the story. Let me guess ... your \"chicken-shit\" reporters are too scared of losing their access or their relationships with the players, right? Your argument isn\'t only illogical, it\'s downright silly. You don\'t think any scribe wouldn\'t love to be the one to bust McGwire or Sosa in \'98? If so you have a poor recollection of that time, and little understanding of a reporter\'s mindset, which is to be expected.

Feb 09, 2009 4:19 PM on Stupid Media Tricks
 
Tuck
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Comment rating: 3

Taking your animus toward BWAA up a notch this year, nicely done. I was wondering how you\'d handle it, since this annual rite of fall had gotten so stale it was growin\' mold! But wishing for 15,000 words to break down one voter\'s ballot... bravo. Considering they got most of the calls right, I guess you were left to attack the organization itself, or one ballot in particular. Not surprising. Not insightful or interesting, but definitely not surprising. Personally, I don\'t have feelings one way or another about the BWAA, but I do know that the arrogance of the BP writers will cost them now and into the future. Your brand is good, but it has flaws. You all try too hard to be contrarian, then cry when you\'re not allowed into the mainstream. But whatever. I look forward to seeing what angle you\'ll take next year in this space--\"BBWA wants to teach sex ed to kindergartners!\"--but regardless I\'ll stick around to try to bring you back to earth. Francoeur in \'08!

Nov 21, 2008 4:25 PM on The Tool of Ignorance
 
Tuck
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Comment rating: 0

That\'s not old-school sportswriting, fsgillispie, it\'s schmaltz. That opening is like watching Michael Scott on the Office: just hard to watch (or in this case, read).

Oct 31, 2008 11:01 AM on The Champions
 
Tuck
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Comment rating: -2

A perfect example of the limitations of the Prospectus approach, and Joe Sheehan in particular. McCarver\'s argument was a visceral, subjective one. He did not mean that Manny *literally* never scored from 1st on a double as a Red Sox. It\'s bizarre that you think he meant that--shows just how narrow your baseball worldiew is. He was using that to describe the perceived extra effort (and emotion) that Manny has brought with him to LA. It is not reducible to data. It just isn\'t. Manny was fined by the team for pushing the team official. Care to explain how that is \"second-hand\" information? He fought with Youkilis. The team met privately and told management he should go. None of that is relevant in assessing Manny\'s time with the Sox? I suppose all that is meaningless, because Manny scored from 1st on doubles more often than McCarver thought. Oy vey. I\'ve been continually disappointed with Sheehan\'s work this year, and this is just another in a long line of silly arguments.

Oct 09, 2008 5:09 PM on May 28-June 3