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Fair enough. My focus was on NL only leagues, but I didn't make that clear. That said, if we assume Hoskins is a 25-80 bat in the big leagues, there were only 15 1bman to do that last year. Add in the 11 3bman to do it, and he becomes relevant at at CI spot, even in 15 team mixed leagues.
My take on the high bar is if you look around the NL, there are plenty of first baseman who are mediocre at best. Not so sure the bar is high. His contact issues seemed to improve in the 2nd half as stated above.
My other point is how many power hitters don't strike out a lot. Only the elite, imo.
thanks for the reply.
CBP is a hitters park as well, not as good as FirstEnergy, but a hitters park nonetheless.
One interesting stat: he improved his K/BB from 88/31 in 335 ABs in 1st half to 37/40 in 163 ABs in the 2nd half.
How are <span class="playerdef"><a href="http://www.baseballprospectus.com/card/card.php?id=104806">Rhys Hoskins</a></span> and overrated in the same sentence?
agree. Love this format. Nice work, Mauricio.
On Bellinger - he lowered K% in AA in 2016. Could he be just working on swing here in the AFL? Some projecting him as a star......thoughts?
I'm with Craig on Calhoun. His bat could carry him enough in the big leagues....nice power and plate discipline in AA in 2016. Calhoun + late inning def replacement in close games could work.
Nice list, Bret. I may on my own little island, but I don't get the love for Turner. Speed only guy, right? Nice BA, sure. Little power.
Also, was <span class="playerdef"><a href="http://www.baseballprospectus.com/card/card.php?id=104806">Rhys Hoskins</a></span> in the convo for honorable mention? Guy has proved his power is real in AA this year. Due for a promotion to AAA, I imagine.
"and then there's Maude!"
I actually used to watch that show as a kid. What a great line, Mike.
what is wrong with Miggy going for more than those guys? I get the power is down argument, but he is a slam dunk to hit .300-25-100, with a chance for more power.
I hear Bellinger is up to 210 pounds after his off season workout program to add weight/muscle. How it translates to his power repeating in AA remains to be seen, but is something to watch.
Bret - thoughts on <span class="playerdef"><a href="http://www.baseballprospectus.com/card/card.php?id=104938">Alex Verdugo</a></span>? I am a little surprised he didn't make the top 125. Was he considered?
Springer and Betts for sure.
Hamilton seems to stand out as misplaced in the four star tier.....offers speed and nothing more for fantasy owners. I prefer a 20 steal guy who can hit for a higher BA and has some pop.
thanks guys. This is Ray from Fake Teams, btw.
I appreciate the info on the Cal League, and I was all set to lower my expectations till I saw BA's ranking for Bellinger a few minutes ago.
Now, I am back driving this bus and requesting a larger vehicle. Allllll aboard!!
Yes, he hit 30 in the Cal league, but he was 19 years old. Not too shabby....and yes, I am driving the Bellinger train or wagon this off season. Yes, I am.
Bellinger did make adjustments late in the season and reduced his K rate to under 20%, so it will be important for that to continue in AA.
For me, Smith has more questions since he hasn't shown he can hit for power, and at 1b, that is pretty important.
other than the hit tool, I don't know what separates Smith and <span class="playerdef"><a href="http://www.baseballprospectus.com/card/card.php?id=102519">Cody Bellinger</a></span>. Bellinger proved he can hit for power, Smith has not.
Great job with the rankings, Bret.
One question - maybe I am low on him, but why is <span class="playerdef"><a href="http://www.baseballprospectus.com/card/card.php?id=70646">Jesse Winker</a></span> ranked ahead of guys like Benintendi, Margot and McMahon? Thanks.
I recently read that Kang is ahead of schedule in his rehab. I think he deserves to be in tier 3 or higher assuming he plays in ST.
Gotta say you handled the criticisms very well yesterday, Craig, but the "paying customer line is tired" line bothers me.
There are plenty of sites out there that would love to charge their readers but don't or can't. Please remember that.
There are better ways to communicate your displeasure with a rankings list. Instead of bashing, how about asking "why did you rank/not rank "xxxxxx" and explain your reasoning as to why you feel he should/should not be ranked.
Most in this industry work full time jobs in addition to writing for fantasy sites. Keep that in mind when reading these rankings.
Also, these rankings are one man's/one team's opinion on the position. You don't have to agree with the rankings.
My question - I am glad to see Hoskins ranked here. He seems to have hit very well at every stop, including in winter ball in Australia. Do you see him continuing to hit for power at Reading this season?
Nice work, Ben. Bellinger hit 30 home runs in the Cal league as a19 year old, which is saying something.
Why no love for Hiskins? He seems to have a brighter future as a fantasy asset than others listed here.
I don't think so. He easily could end the season the 3 star tier. He played injured for most of the second half of the season. Had shoulder surgery after the season, so he should be fine.
Since when did rebuilding become tanking? I guess the negative connotation that tanking gives works for your article.
Curious if <span class="playerdef"><a href="http://www.baseballprospectus.com/card/card.php?id=104806">Rhys Hoskins</a></span> was in the conversation for the Top 10. Is it due to the depth of this system or something more?
I had a feeling that was what you were referencing, but wonder if others who read this would take it literally.
Nice work as always.
If Matz's floor is MadBum and ceiling is Kershaw, shouldn't he be #1? That's a pretty high floor if you ask me.
Or, at least the #1 pitching prospect in the game.
I am totally behind avoiding Brantley this year. To me, he is the 2015 version of Will Venable who put up a 20-20 season in 2013 and couldn't repeat it in 2014.
Ray here - how can you tell after 165 plate appearances in Low A that he won't be an impact fantasy guy?
He was pretty productive in those 165 PAs as well. 2015 will tell us more about whether he will be an impact guy or not, and I was willing to take him there.
I have Posey ranked as my #9 fantasy first baseman. Not many first baseman, or catchers, hit .300 with 20+ HRs and 80+ RBI. The more Bochy plays him at first base, especially with Susac ready, the better for the Giants and his fantasy owners.
FWIW - I have Freeman and Votto ranked below Posey.
congrats, Jason. Well deserved and the best of luck to you.
great question. Should be an interesting offseason for Taylor owners.
Alex Guerrero played SS in AAA last night. He could be called up to play a utility role at some point this season.
Love Eovaldi….like him over Niese.
Ray here - nice work, Mike.
I drafted for Faketeams in the NL mock auction, and wanted to see what my pitching staff would look like with one ace. Not great.
Looking back, I should have saved the $23 on Rosenthal and grabbed a solid SP. I usually come out of auctions with one closer and a few possible closers, but here I have two closers with a chance for another with Clippard and Storen. Soriano's drop in K rate scares me, along with his age. I think he loses his job this season as the pressure to win under new manager Matt Williams could be huge after last season's disappointment.
I spent on offense and liked how the offense I drafted, but am lackking speed after Upton and Braun (?).
I have enough power, but my BA may suffer with Alvarez and Upton.
the top tier is risky as well with Hanley, Tulo and Reyes bringing injury risk to the draft day value.
Jason - great job with the rankings. What is Joc Pederson's power ceiling and what does an average year look like for him once he makes it to the big leagues? Thank you.
hey Mike, Ray here. I play in an NL only and AL only keeper leagues where we get to keep 5 farm guys year to year. In the NL only league, I traded a $2 Sergio Romo in second of three year contract for $5 Javier Baez who I can keep at $5 for first two years and at $10 (or a raise) in third year.
I made the deal because 1. I think Baez could make an impact this season, 2. he and his power bat may move to second base, and 3. closers are volatile.
Did I give up too much for Baez? Maybe, but with 50% of closers changing every year, I was willing to take that risk for a possible high impact bat.
Paul, Ray here. I think both Davis and Kipnis will be first rounders in 2014. Nice piece.
great stuff-how is it that some baseball players have trouble running?
I don't think it was a strange comment at all....the Dodgers needed some spark and it wouldn't have surprised me to see either of them called up while Kemp and Ethier sat for a few days.
Ray here-nice article Bret.
According to Baseball Reference, Rendon has played 5 games at 2b at AA this season. I had to check after reading this. The Nats are struggling to score runs, and Rendon could provide that offensive spark at 2b.
Ray here....nice article Mike. In several of my NL-only leagues, we cannot draft prospects, so they are available only when called up. Unfortunately, call ups in these leagues go to owners based on the reverse order of the standings. Even if you are in 8th place, you need the guys in 12th, 11th, 10th and 9th place to be asleep at the switch to grab him.
More competitive leagues are first come-first serve, which makes more sense.
Mike-Ray here. As you saw with my NL auction results, I targeted some injured players as well as a few minor leaguers who could/should get called up this season.
Every league is different, and I had a feeling I could grab the young pitchers on the cheap-Fernandez at $7, Miller at $6, Wheeler at $2 (he is on the 40 man roster), Rosenthal at a buck, sets me up possibly to compete this season, but more likely next season.
I love the prices you grabbed Davis, Headley, McCann and ARam at.....solid keeps for 2014.
I like using different strategies every year, and this one could pay off for you if the DL'd players come back healthy and produce.
Your strategy is similar to a value investor buying beaten down stocks.
Love the Beckett and Burnett rankings. Not many sites give them their due.
Paul-why did you include Ortiz in your 1b rankings? He hasn't played 20 games at the position over the past four seasons. He did play 7 games there last year, so maybe your games played threshold is lower than elsewhere.
Oh, man, not only did I forget what account I was logged in under, but someone made the same joke before me. Amazing. Two errors on the play.