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froston
29 comments | 29 total rating | 1.00 average rating
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Baseball Prospectus http://bbp.cx/i/62877
froston
(62877)
Comment rating: 4

Where is Chris Da - oh. There he is.

 
froston
(62877)
Comment rating: 1

Can anyone offer a quick explanation on why W.A.R.P. isn't congruent with team wins, by P.<span class="statdef"><a href="http://www.baseballprospectus.com/glossary/index.php?search=E" onmouseover="doTooltip(event, jpfl_getStat('E'))" onmouseout="hideTip()">E</span></a>.C.O.T.A? Toronto has the highest team W.A.R.P. in the division but is projected here to finish 3rd, two wins behind Boston (who they have two more W.A.R.P. than) and five wins behind T.B. (who they have a hair more W.A.R.P. than). I don't really understand why team wins wouldn't just be replacement level team win total + W.A.R.P. Maybe fudged a bit due to divisional strength, but the order in the division shouldn't change. (re-submitted comment with more periods for reasons).

 
froston
(62877)
Comment rating: 1

Can anyone offer a quick explanation on why <span class="statdef"><a href="http://www.baseballprospectus.com/glossary/index.php?search=WARP" onmouseover="doTooltip(event, jpfl_getStat('WARP'))" onmouseout="hideTip()">WARP</span></a> isn't congruent with team wins, by <span class="statdef"><a href="http://www.baseballprospectus.com/glossary/index.php?search=PECOTA" onmouseover="doTooltip(event, jpfl_getStat('PECOTA'))" onmouseout="hideTip()">PECOTA</span></a>? Toronto has the highest team WARP in the division but is projected here to finish 3rd, two wins behind Boston (who they have two more WARP than) and five wins behind <span class="statdef"><a href="http://www.baseballprospectus.com/glossary/index.php?search=TB" onmouseover="doTooltip(event, jpfl_getStat('TB'))" onmouseout="hideTip()">TB</span></a> (who they have a hair more WARP than). I don't really understand why team wins wouldn't just be replacement level team win total + WARP. Maybe fudged a bit due to divisional strength, but the order in the division shouldn't change.

 
froston
(62877)
Comment rating: 0

<span class="playerdef"><a href="http://www.baseballprospectus.com/card/card.php?id=105915">Jose Espada</a></span>, <span class="playerdef"><a href="http://www.baseballprospectus.com/card/card.php?id=102431">Clinton Hollon</a></span>, <span class="playerdef"><a href="http://www.baseballprospectus.com/card/card.php?id=101184">Angel Perdomo</a></span>, and maybe <span class="playerdef"><a href="http://www.baseballprospectus.com/card/card.php?id=103405">Dan Jansen</a></span> all seem more interesting to me than Nay, Fields, and probably even Davis. I would be interested in knowing if they were considered. Particularly Jose Espada, who I've read and heard really good things about.

 
froston
(62877)
Comment rating: 5

No <span class="playerdef"><a href="http://www.baseballprospectus.com/player_search.php?search_name=Chris+Davis">Chris Davis</a></span>?

 
froston
(62877)
Comment rating: 5

The only consistent eligibility he's had in those 5 years is 1B. If he was your dynasty 3B in 2014, you needed a new one last year. If he is your dynasty OF this year, you'll probably need a new one in 2017. He's also no longer young so much less likely to be anything but 1B. Not that funny. Fantasy baseball is serious.

Jan 21, 2016 10:08 AM on Top 50 First Basemen
 
froston
(62877)
Comment rating: 1

This is the main point, I think. The technical positional eligibility requirement arguments miss the mark. It's a dynasty 1B ranking, not a 2016 redraft ranking.

Jan 21, 2016 9:56 AM on Top 50 First Basemen
 
froston
(62877)
Comment rating: 2

Flippant subtweets from BP staff (and editors) don't strike me as very professional. Nobody is mad that <span class="playerdef"><a href="http://www.baseballprospectus.com/player_search.php?search_name=Chris+Davis">Chris Davis</a></span> was omitted. I doubt anybody cares enough to be mad. It just doesn't make any sense to omit him from a dynasty 1B list. Sure, it would make perfect sense to include him with the OF for a 2016 redraft list. It makes even less sense when you see that <span class="playerdef"><a href="http://www.baseballprospectus.com/card/card.php?id=45457">Brandon Moss</a></span> and <span class="playerdef"><a href="http://www.baseballprospectus.com/card/card.php?id=65767">Brandon Belt</a></span>, who both have OF eligibility in Yahoo, are on the list. That's simply incongruent.

Jan 21, 2016 9:34 AM on Top 50 First Basemen
 
froston
(62877)
Comment rating: 3

He is objectively not. The only real argument would be lineup situation and therefore short term R/RBI. But Freeman is flat out the more talented hitter and has been consistently good his whole career, whereas Hosmer has been a legit sandbag in 2 of the last 4 seasons. Hosmer above Encarnacion is just as mental.

Jan 21, 2016 8:30 AM on Top 50 First Basemen
 
froston
(62877)
Comment rating: 6

"Dynasty Rankings". <span class="playerdef"><a href="http://www.baseballprospectus.com/player_search.php?search_name=Chris+Davis">Chris Davis</a></span> is obviously a dynasty 1B. You ranked a prospect 10th. Moss has OF and you still listed him. C'mon.

Jan 21, 2016 7:36 AM on Top 50 First Basemen
 
froston
(62877)
Comment rating: 4

I understand that <span class="playerdef"><a href="http://www.baseballprospectus.com/player_search.php?search_name=Chris+Davis">Chris Davis</a></span> comes with big volatility, but putting him outside of the top 50 seems harsh

Jan 21, 2016 7:09 AM on Top 50 First Basemen
 
froston
(62877)
Comment rating: 3

"Maybe what these traits combine to say most clearly is that, when filling out their respective pitching staffs, these two organizations are realistic about the limitations they’ll have to accept. Oakland’s budget doesn’t allow them to spend big money on the back of their rotation or on organizational pitching depth. The Blue Jays have (wisely, in my opinion) so prioritized position players as to somewhat limit their available resources to use on pitching depth." This is my read as well. Seems like they are just shopping at the same arm store. Also, when the Jays finally pushed <span class="playerdef"><a href="http://www.baseballprospectus.com/card/card.php?id=68624">Deck McGuire</a></span> out to sea it was Oakland that scooped him up initially. Rzepczynski is a very remote connection. <span class="playerdef"><a href="http://www.baseballprospectus.com/player_search.php?search_name=Brad+Mills">Brad Mills</a></span> is a good one. Toronto product, ended up in Oakland, then selected by Tor from Oak on waiver, then signed back with Oak as a FA.

 
froston
(62877)
Comment rating: 1

I thought <span class="playerdef"><a href="http://www.baseballprospectus.com/card/card.php?id=68645">Dillon Overton</a></span> had some stuff, and his peripherals are pretty good. Was the stuff down?

 
froston
(62877)
Comment rating: 3

Wow, <span class="playerdef"><a href="http://www.baseballprospectus.com/card/card.php?id=100279">Nomar Mazara</a></span>. It's like somebody cloned <span class="playerdef"><a href="http://www.baseballprospectus.com/player_search.php?search_name=Jose+Bautista">Jose Bautista</a></span> in a mirror.

Mar 20, 2015 8:52 AM on March 20, 2015
 
froston
(62877)
Comment rating: 0

Is Taylor Cole a potential big leaguer? Old as dirt for A ball but I heard that his changeup was "unhittable" this year.

 
froston
(62877)
Comment rating: 0

I'd also like to request opinions on the following players, if any of you paid professionals would be so amicable: Richard Urena, Rowdy Tellez, Matt Boyd, Dan Jansen, Ryan Borucki, and Clinton Hollon. Thanks!

 
froston
(62877)
Comment rating: 2

What is Dalton Pompey's defensive grade?

 
froston
(62877)
Comment rating: 1

I think the approach here is interesting and I think it illustrates what it tries to illustrate fairly well. I also understand that a lot of this is pretty arbitrary - the indexing factors for age and control; the cutoff for how much control matters; the cutoff for a "core player". However, I disagree strongly with not including salary information in any way. The price of a team's core is extremely important. It dictates how much funds can be appropriated to non-core players in any given season. I think there is probably a sensible way to evaluate team cores while including crucial salary information.

 
froston
(62877)
Comment rating: 3

d'Arnaud

Feb 25, 2013 7:03 PM on Top 101 Prospects
 
froston
(62877)
Comment rating: -1

Three top kegs of dynamite and an injury prone position player at probably the most physically demanding position on the diamond. Sell short on the Mets farm, investors!

Feb 25, 2013 4:28 PM on Top 101 Prospects
 
froston
(62877)
Comment rating: 0

Was Nestor Molina even considered? Are you producing a top 101 this year and if so, when does it drop and will all of the top 10's be done by then? Thanks!

 
froston
(62877)
Comment rating: 0

Thanks Rob.

 
froston
(62877)
Comment rating: 0

Not saying you're wrong, but how do we know that PECOTA wasn't a bit biased during these years? Should have a control here with pitchers who didn't pitch in the WBC. It would tell us is PECOTA had any bias, and if so, how much.

 
froston
(62877)
Comment rating: 0

So I incorporated pretty much every knuckleball pitcher in history into the curve now (based on a wikipedia list). Not much changed, the plateau is still there. The peak did change from 35 to 39, which is kind of interesting I guess. Decline is still very standard once a knuckleball pitcher gets over the hill (-0.52 wins per year past 39). The peak at 45 is obviously random, only 4 guys are left alive there and Phil Niekro had a great year. http://postimage.org/image/4by90ed2j

 
froston
(62877)
Comment rating: 0

Yeah, these 11 prominent guys demonstrate more of a plateau than a peak, from 35-39. And then the decline after that was very much in a standard fashion (-0.48 wins per year). No conclusions or anything though, I just did it for fun. Didn't have time to throw every knuckler ever into the data set.

 
froston
(62877)
Comment rating: 0

I made a lazy aging curve for prominent knuckle ballers using RA9-Wins. Thought people might be interested. http://postimage.org/image/hjllo9cej Sample was small, basically just the 10 knucklers with the most games started + Dickey and minus Cicotte since he pitched a century ago.

 
froston
(62877)
Comment rating: -16
 
froston
(62877)
Comment rating: 0

What's the timeline here, is it roughly one list per week?

 
froston
(62877)
Comment rating: 1

Hey Mike, how long until someone rolls together your research with Bojan's, along with some other things like arm and caught stealing numbers, to create an advanced all encompassing catcher's defense metric?