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ccmonter
36 comments | 33 total rating | 0.92 average rating
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Baseball Prospectus http://bbp.cx/i/6231
ccmonter
(6231)
Comment rating: 4

His spring reminds me a little too much of Willie Mays Hayes in Major League 2. ;)

 
ccmonter
(6231)
Comment rating: 0

Is Uehara the 9th inning man? Or is there a "sprint training competition" with Gonzalez and/or Gregg?

 
ccmonter
(6231)
Comment rating: 0

Hmm... I just noticed that the Braves actually out-scored their opponents over the entire series in 1991 (29-24 over MIN), 1992 (20-17 over TOR), 1995 (23-19 over CLE) and 1996 (26-18 over NYY). Of course, they only won the 1995 World Series.

 
ccmonter
(6231)
Comment rating: 1

Atlanta, 1991? ATL 2, MIN 5 ATL 2, MIN 3 MIN 4, ATL 5 (12) MIN 2, ATL 3 MIN 4, ATL 14 ATL 3, MIN 4 (11) ATL 0, MIN 1 (10) *The* classic series, down to a classic Game 7

 
ccmonter
(6231)
Comment rating: 2

The call for Qualls came in order to try and get the double play. The righties in the Rays pen are not THAT much different in terms of chances of generating outs. Going with the guy that might get you two outs? That's not a bad call. If Qualls gets the check-swing call, 1/3 of this article disappears.

Oct 08, 2010 7:22 AM on LDS Day Two Roundup
 
ccmonter
(6231)
Comment rating: 3

I watched the Posey replays multiple times before concluding that the wrong call had been made. And then, only with the help of slow motion. Would replay have helped? Yes. But the ump had a tough call and the same call would have been made by many others. That doesn't take away from the point, but we are very quick to jump on the umpires for mistakes that we only catch because we get to see the play dozens of times again, and in slow motion.

Oct 08, 2010 7:19 AM on LDS Day Two Roundup
 
ccmonter
(6231)
Comment rating: 0

So that's why I had to dish out $100 for a pair of mediocre tickets to Wrigley field this summer, as I visit the windy city for the first time.

 
ccmonter
(6231)
Comment rating: 0

Utley's weighted means look ok now. Was anything done to fix that, or was this a 'wrong' report?

 
ccmonter
(6231)
Comment rating: 0

Yes, it appears that only players with last names up to R are included right now. S through Z don't show up under any circumstances.

 
ccmonter
(6231)
Comment rating: 0

Yes, it appears that only players with last names up to R are included right now. S through Z don't show up under any circumstances.

 
ccmonter
(6231)
Comment rating: 10

I'd like the apology, but first of all I want the numbers. Let the team do their work. Let's get the numbers first and then we can worry about everyone's feelings.

Mar 12, 2010 6:49 PM on PECOTA Update
 
ccmonter
(6231)
Comment rating: 0

It was about twice per week last season in the latter half of March. It was about once per week in late February and early March. I've been begging for an update, too, and I'm glad to see one. New update 2010-03-09.

Mar 10, 2010 7:32 AM on
 
ccmonter
(6231)
Comment rating: 0

New Update as of 2010-03-09! Enjoy!

Mar 10, 2010 7:31 AM on
 
ccmonter
(6231)
Comment rating: 0

New PFM Posted March 09. Thank You!

Mar 10, 2010 3:47 AM on Replacing Nathan
 
ccmonter
(6231)
Comment rating: 0

This is the biggest development this spring (thus far). Coupled with some other developments (outlined in BP's Hot Spots) feature, when can we expect to have new Depth Charts and new PFM runs? Auction Draft Day is coming up fast!

Mar 09, 2010 12:51 PM on Replacing Nathan
 
ccmonter
(6231)
Comment rating: 5

@Lopecci - I have had great success with the BP PFM data and an Excel spreadsheet.

 
ccmonter
(6231)
Comment rating: 0

2000 is not that long ago. For me, 1992/1993 is a long time ago. Then again, I'm not a Cubs fan so I can't complain.

Nov 05, 2009 1:16 PM on The Crown Rests Lightly
 
ccmonter
(6231)
Comment rating: 3

Growing talent is one thing. Keeping that talent once they hit their FA years is another. Very few franchises could (would?) have kept those three on the roster for all these years. Each of them is the highest paid at their position (actually, I don't know about Posada for sure - sorry that I'm not checking).

Nov 05, 2009 6:20 AM on SoDo Mojo, To Go
 
ccmonter
(6231)
Comment rating: 0

Even with the fixes, the Angels had only a 36.7% of beating the Red Sox. That's better than the 30% originally slotted to them prior to the fixes, but it's still hard to believe. We keep hearing that the post season is a 'crapshoot' but these odds seem to discourage that belief. The odds show the Angels as a severe underdog. Is the NL East really that much better? Wow.

Oct 16, 2009 8:44 AM on Allez les Expos!
 
ccmonter
(6231)
Comment rating: 0

CC. should not have been there in the 9th, having given up 4 runs already. So let's assume the score was 1-0 instead. CC. should have stayed in to face Utley and Howard.

Oct 13, 2009 2:03 PM on Completion
 
ccmonter
(6231)
Comment rating: 0

This an "exception to the rule" scenario. Of course, this is an extremely unlikely scenario. How did the Phillies load the bases with 0 outs in the 9th and Mariano has only pitched to 1 batter? Ok, I'm nitpicking. Mo could have loaded the bases himself on three "bad hits".

Oct 13, 2009 12:55 PM on Completion
 
ccmonter
(6231)
Comment rating: 0

Or, for today's small amount of free time and simple rules, it has to be Pizza Box Football. http://www.boardgamegeek.com/boardgame/17851

 
ccmonter
(6231)
Comment rating: -1

Then what you need is ASL Starter Kit. It will soothe your ASL desires without getting overly complicated. http://www.boardgamegeek.com/boardgame/9823 Even that is too much for my tastes. I prefer my games in short doses and with fabulous bits. For the wargamer in you, that's Memoir '44. http://www.boardgamegeek.com/boardgame/10630

 
ccmonter
(6231)
Comment rating: 0

I certainly did. And I still do.

Apr 20, 2009 6:04 AM on The Mariners
 
ccmonter
(6231)
Comment rating: 1

Clay, thank you very very much for this unfiltered post. This summary is invaluable when floundering my way through the depth charts. Every time that there's an update, I've felt a little lost. You have helped me find my way. Thanks.

Mar 31, 2009 5:54 AM on AL MVP
 
ccmonter
(6231)
Comment rating: 0

I also want to express my thanks to Clay and anyone else involved in doing this work. PFM week is easily the second best week of the season, following Draft week. ( World Series week is third in line with Opening Week not far behind. )

Feb 12, 2009 10:30 AM on Florida Fraud
 
ccmonter
(6231)
Comment rating: -2

How lucky did the Phillies get in the sixth? What are the odds of a Genkins 2B in that spot? Iwamura dropping that ball? I was thinking that Genkins was the worst choice of pinch hitter. That\'s why they play the game.

 
ccmonter
(6231)
Comment rating: 0

Count me as one of the people who tuned out last night due to the late start and the extended game. I know going in that I am going to have to be up until, if not past, midnight if I want to watch an entire post season game. I\'ve been doing that up until now and I\'m sure I\'ll do it again but last night, I knew I wasn\'t going to make so I taped the game and tuned out.

Oct 23, 2008 1:02 PM on Advantage Acquired
 
ccmonter
(6231)
Comment rating: 3

Playing Devil\'s Advocate here. As stated, it is a tiny sample size. Nevertheless, I can\'t ignore the comment: \"The numbers say that making starts on three days\' rest hurts a pitcher\'s effectiveness, and turns good pitchers into fourth starters\" Does this not mean that you would be sending up pitchers of \'08 SNLVAR: 7.1, 3.5, 5.0, ~4.0, 3.0, 3.5+, ~4.0. Is that realy better than \'08 SNLVAR: 7.1, 3.5, 5.0, 3.0, 7.1, 3.5, 5.0? This essentially takes you from having 2 games as \"very likely wins\" and having to steal 2 others in 5 chances to 1 game as a \"likely win\" and having to steal 3 others in 6 chances. My first instict is the same as yours Joe - ride Hamels for 3 games. That one sentence above makes me doubt that belief. Again, just playing Devil\'s Advocate.

Oct 22, 2008 8:48 AM on It's Hamels' Time
 
ccmonter
(6231)
Comment rating: 2

Drew\'s was a swinging strike. There was no called strike there. Bay\'s was a swinging strike. The replays clearly showed both batters commiting. To the human eye, those calls could have gone either way. But, in this case, they had nothing to do with the strike zone. I\'m not saying the boys in blue are right all the time. I\'m just saying that you are picking the wrong examples.

 
ccmonter
(6231)
Comment rating: 0

\"The only reason the Rays are ahead in this series is they learned that they could beat the Red Sox down the stretch\" While I agree that Joe downplays the role of human behaviour, I believe that most people overrate it. If you really believe that the *only* reason the Rays are ahead is due to some character trait, that\'s overrating things. We simply don\'t know what role human behaviour has. We can\'t say it doesn\'t play some sort of role but without the ability to quantify it, it has little role in performance analysis. At the professional ranks, it almost certainly has a much smaller role than in my Slo-Pitch league.

 
ccmonter
(6231)
Comment rating: 1

Yes, it\'s debatable. My side of the debate is that *professional* players, playing in what will be their last game of the season are highly unlikely to \"accept defeat\". I don\'t think this has anything to do with the Red Sox, other than they were the ones in the situation. No team is likely to have \"accepted defeat\". Are the Red Sox less likely? That\'s the point of the article.

 
ccmonter
(6231)
Comment rating: 0

When I print, I get the Baseball Prospectus banner at the top of the page and nothing else, just the text. Regardless of what margins I have, the page prints just fine, it scrolls the test at the appropriate margins. I am using Internet Explorer 7.0

 
ccmonter
(6231)
Comment rating: 0

See Jeff\'s Unfiltered post. http://www.baseballprospectus.com/unfiltered/?p=1065 The \'printable format\' now comes to you pre-packaged. Try printing the page and you will get a printout of the content as seen in the prior \'printable format\'.

 
ccmonter
(6231)
Comment rating: 1

\"I can\'t write the shared glance of astonishment between my friend and I when Grant Balfour, and not Trever Miller\" I was actually yelling at my television. How can you not treat that situation like any other playoff game? So what if you are up by 6 runs. Miller is on the roster for one reason and one reason only. Why even give the Sox hope? Last night is why. This is not hindsight. How many of us were trying to get Maddon to change pitchers before Balfour threw a pitch to Ortiz? Solace is two games at home.

 
ccmonter
(6231)
Comment rating: 0

In the past, I have paid for a premium closer, but never for anything less than that. Mariano Rivera, Joe Nathan, Travor Hoffman come to mind. B.J. Ryan... oops! There no certainty in *anything* (look at Andruw Jones this year) but there seems to be even less so in the world of closers. Worse - their value is not only dependent on their skill but on the whim of their manager. I have long ago given up paying for closers. I will take a chance on cheap possibilites and strong setup men. Today, I own Jonathan Broxton, Chad Qualls, Dan Wheeler and along the way I used Damaso Marte, Grant Balfour, Eddie Guardado. Sometimes you get bit - Russ Springer, Ryan Franklin, Manny Acosta. In general, though, it has been a good strategy for me. You do have to watch that not too many people are doing it because then the price of the closers at the draft lowers to the point where they ARE worth drafting. Happy Hunting! PS. I\'m definitely interested in seeing a follow-up with saves, mostly for giggles.

Sep 24, 2008 12:46 PM on Sweet Relief