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Absolutely - we're going to run another survey and potentially look for other ways for readers to group together in order to have an event in their hometown. We will go wherever there is enough support for us to go--we love having these events with our readers.
Yes, if you already have a ticket to the game in question, just order through the below link and let us know which event you're planning on coming to. That way we'll get you on the list for the pre-game panels and meet/greet:
Denver just barely missed the cut for this year, but will be on our short list for 2018. Hopefully it will work out and we'll see you then!
I agree - stay tuned for a potential announcement on that front in the coming weeks..
We tried Atlanta last year, but there was just no demand for an event there. Maybe the new stadium will help, but we'll continue polling our readers to see where our events will be most successful.
Right now, we're not set up for this in the store, but let me check to see what our options are. Can you please e-mail me through the site?
We are looking into potentially adding 1-2 more this year, but focusing on these first. I'd say Tampa is unlikely since there was very little interest in an event there from the survey. But if enough people clamor for an event somewhere, we will do our best to have one.
Yes, and by Craig no less.
Version 1 drops tomorrow!
Of course they could have - we all have different bid limits.
At best, he's an unproven rookie that is second in line for saves in Washington, but in an age of front offices being more hesitant to give pre-arb pitchers saves for fear of having to pony up in arbitration, I don't see him getting into the role even if they don't make a trade. This is a big part of the reason why there are more veteran names in the last 20-30 spots on this list.
He's a pretty good middle reliever with very little chance at saves. There's a lot of those scattered around the league, and it highlights the fluidity of the 50-100 range
Herrera is great, but he's also likely to be one of the first pieces out the door for a non-contending Royals team, and I don't think he's certain to be a closer outside of KC despite the great track record. Just too much saves risk to warrant being higher, in my opinion.
There will likely be a few pitchers who stand a slight reevaluation, but as Jonathan mentions in the article, the majority of these fall into the "doesn't really change much" bucket. If, as we continue to review it, there end up being enough pitchers with interesting ticks up or down, we'll write some fantasy content specifically about it.
Maybe <span class="playerdef"><a href="http://www.baseballprospectus.com/card/card.php?id=55592">Michael Blazek</a></span> if you really squint. This is part of his somewhat aggressive valuation as well—that bullpen is a bit of a wasteland. You could argue that it might be Nelson or Peralta if the Brewers decide to move one of them to the bullpen eventually, but that's probably not a 2017 thing.
Thanks for the heads up - fixed. That was a typo, as it was already included in his ranking. If he actually were a free agent after 2017, he'd probably have ranked right behind Allen and maybe even in front of him. He's that good.
He showed up on the Top 50 Signees list because he signed his MLB contract in 2016.
Of course that makes a big difference, but you're also still cherry picking by including his 2014 season when he has more than twice the number of at bats since then as an above-average hitter regardless of what metric you want to use. And yes, Baez's ceiling is definitely higher than that from a pure fantasy standpoint. If you want to make the argument that from a LW perspective, they have similar upsides, that's reasonable since Baez has the advantage in <span class="statdef"><a href="http://www.baseballprospectus.com/glossary/index.php?search=SB" onmouseover="doTooltip(event, jpfl_getStat('SB'))" onmouseout="hideTip()">SB</span></a> and disadvantage in <span class="statdef"><a href="http://www.baseballprospectus.com/glossary/index.php?search=OBP" onmouseover="doTooltip(event, jpfl_getStat('OBP'))" onmouseout="hideTip()">OBP</span></a>, but that's not what the rankings are based off of.
Swanson also has speed, which Diaz doesn't have. Russell has power than Diaz doesn't have. Baez has more upside in every category other than batting average and he only earned $3 less than Baez last year. Also, Baez had a .275 <span class="statdef"><a href="http://www.baseballprospectus.com/glossary/index.php?search=TAv" onmouseover="doTooltip(event, jpfl_getStat('TAv'))" onmouseout="hideTip()">TAv</span></a> last year and a .268 mark the year before, so he has most certainly not been one of the worst hitters since his debut. Period.
This sounds like a perfect question for shruggy guy.
Sure, there's a little concern, but as I mentioned in the intro, the list of safe arms out there is extremely small. Given the defense and team behind Arrieta and the recently-shown skillset, I just like him a little more than the other riskier SP1s.
No question he would have been #2 on this list, and had a real argument to challenge Kershaw at the top. It still makes me sad almost every single day.
I think Szapucki may have a little higher upside as a starting pitcher, but Dunn has the advantage in fantasy of potentially being a more dominant reliever if things don't go either of their way. Think Dunn is also very slightly safer overall, which pushes him ahead.
And we would have gotten away with it too if it wasn't for you pesky kids..
In all seriousness, ignoring the "you hate my team" stuff, there's no reason to project Margot as more than an OF3 right now. Yes, steals are great, but Margot doesn't project to be a 40-steal guy. And what do you have outside of that? He's unlikely to be an impact batting average contributor, though he has the potential get on base and hit at the top of the lineup, which is why we gave him impact potential in runs scored. The power doesn't look like it will be a factor and the profile doesn't leave much room for <span class="statdef"><a href="http://www.baseballprospectus.com/glossary/index.php?search=RBI" onmouseover="doTooltip(event, jpfl_getStat('RBI'))" onmouseout="hideTip()">RBI</span></a>.
With that profile, and really good CF defense, he could certainly be an occasional All-Star. There are plenty of All-Stars who are really good, but not elite, fantasy performers. And we do like him quite a bit, which is why he was ranked in the top-25.
Because this is last year's list and we ranked him as a reliever at the time.
Thanks! Otani is just about impossible to rank because he's clearly major-league ready but his ETA is completely up in the air. If I assume he won't come to the majors until at least 2019 or 2020, I'd slot him into the 10-15 range. And that's what I'd assume at this point.
Appreciate the suggestion. Seems like an easy enough thing to add for next year.
Tatis was pretty close this year. Both are good names to keep an eye on for a 2018 jump.
Not concern so much as that he's a mid-rotation arm and mid-rotation arms just don't carry the appropriate amount of upside for the risk they provide in just being pitchers. Weaver is more of the same except I think he'll miss fewer bats than De Leon, and that just won't cut it in fantasy leagues.
Minor consideration, but I don't think the breakout is real enough for us to start giving him deference on a fantasy list. Is he pretty likely to be a major leaguer? Sure. He'll need to do it for a longer period of time in the upper minors to push his way onto this list though. (Also this is for <span class="statdef"><a href="http://www.baseballprospectus.com/glossary/index.php?search=AVG" onmouseover="doTooltip(event, jpfl_getStat('AVG'))" onmouseout="hideTip()">AVG</span></a> leagues, not <span class="statdef"><a href="http://www.baseballprospectus.com/glossary/index.php?search=OBP" onmouseover="doTooltip(event, jpfl_getStat('OBP'))" onmouseout="hideTip()">OBP</span></a> ones.)
Both are very toolsy players who could shoot up this list either in 2018 or 2019. That said, I'm not super optimistic that their overall fantasy profiles will develop. Gettys would have made a top-150. Lazarito would not have.
Not a change of my personal opinion, no. Any changes from that list to now is a product of teamwork.
What Ben said. But also, it's pretty common for bat-first prospects to show up significantly higher on a dynasty list than a true prospect list. Tapia is not really an outlier in that department, and he's definitely a bat-first prospect.
At 20, Pederson had only showed power in pretty extreme environments (he had just come off an 18-homer season in the Cal League). His power developed. That doesn't mean Verdugo's will. Point is, he needs a step forward to show he can hit more than 15 homers or so a year. Without doing that, his fantasy value has a governor.
Verdugo is going to have to show he'll have fantasy impact outside of batting average. If Jones does in Low-A what he did in Rookie ball, he'll jump way up the list. His issue is just proximity at this point, not upside. Ona needs to show the power that he's showcased can show itself in games.
That should only happen after you take the survey. If you're having trouble submitting the survey, you can send me your thoughts on ballpark events via the contact form. Thanks!
If Hamilton had been the best player on my board, yes I would have. Though the odds are that he wouldn't have been (and my guess is it would've been either Cueto or Arrieta).
Springer needs to steal bases for that to happen, but he is capable of it. Until then, the power upside for Stanton is just too great (though I do think Springer has been undervalued each of the last two years in LABR). And yea, getting aggressive in the valuations on first basemen is partially because the drop off is more severe than usual, and feels more drastic compared to other positions. In reality that's because there are about 10 guys at the end who could be startable (and I grabbed two of them in the reserve rounds), but the difference between them and the ones taken in the 12th-23rd rounds isn't so great.
It was not - he was just the best player on my board at the time. And to be honest, it ended up not really having an effect given how my queue shook out. If I had <span class="playerdef"><a href="http://www.baseballprospectus.com/card/card.php?id=58880">Dee Gordon</a></span> at the top of my list when my pick was up next, I probably would have passed on him for the second player due to diminishing returns, but it didn't really come up. It's also part of the whole depressed stolen base environment, and why Hamilton is so useful despite being a not-so-good hitter.
Think that may have been the link within my draft page. Tried putting in the default link - hopefully that works.
We're sorry to hear that, and we always do appreciate feedback.
From my perspective, I think that Jeff and the prospect team have done a tremendous job in putting together these lists. It's an extraordinary task and one that works best when it's a combination of information and personality, just as it's almost always been. Their predecessors are proud and they should be.
We also get a group of commenters who like to talk about Kevin/Jason as the era(s) when our prospect coverage was ideal. This isn't limited to one or two people. And I'm certainly not going to stand here and say that they weren't both incredible in their own way—I adored both of their work, and I still do. It's no surprise at all that they've both become really successful in their front office roles. But Jeff (and team) have packed these lists full of more information than Kevin did when he was writing them. And we've gotten far fewer complaints about Jeff's excursions of personality than we got about Jason when he was writing them. Of course, Kevin and Jason set an extremely high bar for quality when they were here. Just like Christina Karhl did. And <a href="http://www.baseballprospectus.com/author/steven_goldman">Steven Goldman</a> did. And <a href="http://www.baseballprospectus.com/author/ben_lindbergh">Ben Lindbergh</a> did. And <span class="playerdef"><a href="http://www.baseballprospectus.com/card/card.php?id=76409">Sam Miller</a></span>. And <a href="http://www.baseballprospectus.com/author/rj_anderson">R.J. Anderson</a>. And literally hundreds of others did.
That's the beauty and the curse of working at Baseball Prospectus. We are constantly striving to live up to the people who came before us because they were incredible. And I'm proud to work side-by-side with our entire staff as we do just that, and create high-quality work in the process. So when we say we want to hear constructive criticism, we mean it. That's how we make a forever imperfect product better. But reminding us how great our predecessors were and how difficult it is to follow in their footsteps? We're two steps ahead of you there.
He was one of the last couple of names cut from the list. If he can prove that the power he showed leading up to draft can continue after getting popped for PEDs, he'll make a nice jump up in the 2018 version. Until then, he's just a guy without a ton of fantasy upside and a really long lead time.
To be honest, I don't think he's ranked low. It's an unusually dense group in the first half of this list and he's ranked ahead of other top-50 prospects (Adames, Diaz), other surprising 2016 performers (Cabrera, Semien). His fantasy upside is limited and he's not all that young either (he'll be 27 this summer). There's nothing wrong with being a potential .270-.280 hitter with 15 homers and a handful of steals, but in this environment at this position, that doesn't make you a top-10 option and it doesn't give you much long-term ceiling. He's also not guaranteed that playing time if the defense doesn't turn around (though I think those concerns are a little overblown by some).
I just don't see the fantasy appeal. I ranked him 26th last year and 2016 was clearly a disappointment considering how out of control the hype on him was heading into the season. The speed isn't high-impact and the batting average probably won't be either—leaving him as a perpetual back-of-the-pack starter if things progress well.
While we all weren't looking. (Fixed.)
I'd slot him between Lindor and Villar.
I'd consider 30-plus to be impactful, so it's the latter. And I don't think he's even a lock to get to 20. Ramirez offers a solid floor, but you want more than just a solid floor for someone being taken that high.
My guess is that people aren't reading the intro. I would suggest people read the intro.
Solarte only got 15 games at 2B last year, so is not eligible based on our designations. He'll get some love this week though.
The AL to NL move isn't worrisome, just the opposite. Plus, Forsythe came up in the division so it doesn't really apply to him anyway.
Tim's exactly right. The point is that we have a staff that I think is really great and everyone has different opinions on players. This format is their chance to convince you of someone they want to target or avoid. You choose whether they've made a good argument or not.
I think he could be a .370-.380 <span class="statdef"><a href="http://www.baseballprospectus.com/glossary/index.php?search=OBP" onmouseover="doTooltip(event, jpfl_getStat('OBP'))" onmouseout="hideTip()">OBP</span></a> guy against right-handed pitching at peak.
That's also not the whole story (though my way of telling it was a bit simplistic). Sanchez had a 34.2 percent fly ball rate and MLB average is 34.6 percent. Contreras, on the other hand, put the ball in the air 27.7 percent of the time.
Four catchers (I used 75 percent playing time requirement at the position and McCann didn't qualify). He's great, which is why he ranked in the top-15 at the position even as an old man, but he's no longer a true primary catcher in that definition.
Haha whoops. Fixed!
He was #34 on this list three years ago: http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=22538
He was one of the last 3-4 names I cut out of the honorable mention section. It was good debut, but coming from a major college program, anything he does short of full-season ball is just preamble. If he can keep the strikeouts under control and hit like that in Low-A or High-A this year, then we'll revisit.
He's a J2 signing from last summer. A big kid from Venezuela with bigger raw power. Is forever away, but could be an impact middle-of-the-order bat.
I like Sedlock the pitcher, but I hate the situation. Generalizing is usually not a great thing, but the Orioles have a brutal history of developing pitching over the last decade and have a really tough home park in a tough division to boot. If he had been drafted by almost any other organization, he'd have been on the list (though not super high).
It's an indictment on his situation as well. The reliever questions will always be there, but put those aside for a second. <span class="playerdef"><a href="http://www.baseballprospectus.com/card/card.php?id=68564">Jon Gray</a></span> was an All-Star caliber pitcher in 2016 and couldn't even crack the top-60 starters in fantasy. Some of that is because he only threw 160 innings, but I'm not convinced any pitcher, short of a super-ace, can be a top-25 starter in Coors. If Pint is who the Rockies think he is, he won't be moved, so there's a natural governor to his ceiling. If he's not, well then it doesn't seem worth worrying about, does it?
Highly? Probably not. Hwang would make the list, but he'd be on the back half somewhere. There are some fun Japanese players but none are likely to get posted this year or next.
Thanks! This is going to get covered in more detail than you could possibly even want during our positional series between my lists, Ben's <a href="http://www.baseballprospectus.com/column/Get_to_Know/">Get to Know</a> column and Wilson's Ocean's Floor column. So stay tuned..
Intentional. Think he's a reliever all the way. Would put him right around where I'd have <span class="playerdef"><a href="http://www.baseballprospectus.com/card/card.php?id=107552">Zack Burdi</a></span> (as in, somewhere in a top-75).
You would expect that the younger a player is when he ranks in a certain position on a prospect list, the greater the upside/risk is. That said, there's some self selection here, as even close-to-the-majors prospects don't rank that highly unless they have significant upside and the far-away prospects tend not to rank that high unless they have a comparatively high floor for someone of their age. This probably mutes the effect a bit.
Not for me. But he'd be the top pitcher on the list.
If you want to get really technical, Contreras is in the majors, making him somewhat not a prospect. And if you don't, it ruins the premise of the joke.
Tellez was closer than Bellinger, as I have a little more confidence in his bat long-term (and he's been more impressive in 2016). But they're below Bell/Vogelbach because those two are major-league ready right now (in fact, Bell just got called up today). My guess is that Tellez makes the top 50 at the end of the season and Bellinger does not.
Sure, it's rising, but he's easily a full tier behind the Nottingham/Alfaro/Sanchez group. Borderline 101 guy for me right now.
And no prospect has the floor of a standing structure used to generate wind power. Sometimes commentary can be as fun as analysis.
Not all that close for me. Still don't see him being more than a no. 4 starter, which isn't the most fantasy friendly profile. Probably a top 101 guy with a pretty strong <span class="statdef"><a href="http://www.baseballprospectus.com/glossary/index.php?search=WHIP" onmouseover="doTooltip(event, jpfl_getStat('WHIP'))" onmouseout="hideTip()">WHIP</span></a> and good enough K's.
Ray in the 30s, Senzel in the 40s.
Yep. Likely in the 30s.
I'm just not convinced he's a starter. Also, he's a pitcher, and I would certainly not make the argument for him over any of the pitchers who did make the list or the HM section. That said, he might be really good!
A 24-year-old who has really only hit this well in very friendly environments (Cal League, Fall League, PCL) is just not that impressive of a fantasy profile. A 19-year-old who is hitting for real power in full-season ball is one. Age and context can be extremely important factors, and this is a place where it matters more than most. Just look at <span class="playerdef"><a href="http://www.baseballprospectus.com/card/card.php?id=68318">Peter O'Brien</a></span> from 2015. Similar age, power and discipline stats as Renfroe from this year. If you want apples to apples, that's much closer.
Pretty close. If it was 10 more people, Newman might have been one of them.
I would never call you an idiot. I really hope he can, since the stuff (when healthy) has always been enough, but I'm not particularly confident it happens.
Anyone CAN walk, but Renfroe has a walk rate of four percent and that aggressive approach is going to be exploited against major league arms if he doesn't improve it because his contact ability it's a strength. Just because he doesn't strikeout as much as say <span class="playerdef"><a href="http://www.baseballprospectus.com/card/card.php?id=70613">Joey Gallo</a></span>, doesn't mean he doesn't have swing-and-miss issues that could hold him back from being a 25-30 homer hitter. Also, Petco is still not a great place to hit homers.
Thanks! The speed and proximity is kind of a big deal though, right? He could be up tomorrow and run at a 40-steal clip while hitting for enough average to help. Even if little else comes (which I think it selling short his power, which is non-zero), how many other middle infielders can do that? Two? Three? As far as Hoskins goes, he was not really in the conversation for HM, but likely would have made a 101. Reading is a launching pad and the bar is just so high for first-base-only prospects offensively.
It's not so much that they're particularly destined for the bullpen, but more that they are pitchers at all. The risk and uncertainty is just so much higher for arms than bats that I've continued to shift my philosophy more and more away from pitching prospects when it makes sense. Of course, ignoring them entirely can be a big mistake as well. Each of those four could be strong fantasy starters, and Ortiz/Newcomb probably have the highest upside.
Tough to answer definitively before they sign, but I will run a final Top 50 including all 2016 international signees in January. For now, with those two, my top five would be Ray, Lourdes, Senzel, Collins, Yulieski. The elder brother is already 32, so that works against him here and limits his attractiveness to some teams depending on need and place in contention cycle.
Easter egg found. Fixed!
There's risk for sure, but it's mostly health risk. I'm not too concerned about Reyes being a role player, so maybe 25-30 spots higher?
Rest of 2016. These rankings were put together earlier in the week, when he was not injured. I don't think Pollock plays in 2016.
"The rankings above assume a 15-team, standard 5x5 Roto scoring format"
If you told me he's have an uninterrupted starting job from mid-June to the end of the season, I'd put him right up near Segura.
Easy. <span class="playerdef"><a href="http://www.baseballprospectus.com/card/card.php?id=47360">Wade Davis</a></span>.
He could sneak into the last five on this list and I wouldn't have much of an argument against it. Just would rather take a chance on the guys ahead of him. He'd certainly have made a top 50.
As long as he has his SS eligibility intact, infinity games.
Probably not. I'd have him ranked a little higher than this for a keeper/dynasty list, as I'm not giving up on him entirely, but this year is looking more and more lost by the day.
They're probably football leagues.
Andrus should be between Escobar and Baez. Looks like when I added Baez into this list (after he gained SS eligibility), he inadvertently swallowed Andrus. Thanks, Scott.
I went back and forth with Ramirez, as it was between him and Rollins for the last spot. He's great in deep leagues, but he's really a glorified empty average guy without guaranteed playing time in Cleveland.
The combination of the injury and the generally poor performance causes him to just miss the one-star tier.
Gattis hasn't played a single game in the outfield this year, and missed our cutoff for eligibility last year (he only had 11 games, and we use 20, which is standard).
Sure, though expectations should be somewhat in check given the company he's keeping in that tier. Almost all of his underlying discipline stats are right where they were last year, so I definitely expect some bounce back. Expecting the 2015 version the rest of the way, though, is a stretch at this point.
Not particularly. He's whiffing more when he chases, but he's also chasing less, I'd expect that number to come down (along with the walk rate to come up) and get closer to his recent career norms over the rest of the season. Plus, the fact that 23% is "alarmingly" high for Encarnacion just hammers home how good of a hitter he is.
This is correct. And we'll run an updated top-300 at the end of the week, which will answer all of your leftover multi-eligibility questions.
Also tomorrow, friend.
Because we make this column free for all to read.
Thursdays, dear reader. One more day.
Now featuring <span class="playerdef"><a href="http://www.baseballprospectus.com/card/card.php?id=524">Brad Penny</a></span>'s actual 2004 annual comment!
I expect Saunders to play against all right-handers and Martin to play pretty close to full time.
If you must, I'd take Shoemaker. Best bet for league-average innings.
I used 68/32 as my split. Not nearly as drastic as it ended up being..
He was actually #76, only cut from the list to make room for <span class="playerdef"><a href="http://www.baseballprospectus.com/card/card.php?id=100591">Nick Wittgren</a></span> after the Capps injury. Relievers, man.
The short answer? Nothing. I'm confident he could close if they put him in that role, but the ranking is role-based rather than skills-based. For me, he's one of the best 30 relievers in the game right now, from a non-fantasy standpoint.
As long as you meet the qualifications set forth in the required skills section, you will be considered. Thanks!
This list is just Mr Sayre.
And it's a combination of both. It has to be. There's no use in ceiling if a player is extremely unlikely to reach it. I tend to skew a little more towards ceiling than safety at the end, but it's a light skew.
That seems pretty expensive, but I'd do it if there's at least 20-30% inflation.
Durability and inconsistent performance both played a role. There's also a pretty thick top tier these days among arms.
McCullers was a casualty of trying to transfer 175 names from Excel to Word. He should be on the list at #38, just ahead of <span class="playerdef"><a href="http://www.baseballprospectus.com/card/card.php?id=58507">Jake Odorizzi</a></span>. Adding him now..
Ibanez doesn't have a ton of fantasy ceiling, but he could do <span class="playerdef"><a href="http://www.baseballprospectus.com/card/card.php?id=100736">Matt Duffy</a></span> in 2015 type things, which is more valuable than it seems on the surface--especially in deeper leagues. He's somewhat advanced, so I wouldn't be that surprised to see him in the majors by 2017 (though given the Rangers' <span class="statdef"><a href="http://www.baseballprospectus.com/glossary/index.php?search=MI" onmouseover="doTooltip(event, jpfl_getStat('MI'))" onmouseout="hideTip()">MI</span></a> depth, he'd really have to force his way in there).
FWIW, I'd slot him right around <span class="playerdef"><a href="http://www.baseballprospectus.com/card/card.php?id=106259">Scott Kingery</a></span> in the early 30s. Not the greatest fantasy profile, but certainly worth putting on the draft list.
He was close, but it's two things at play. One, I am generally a Cal League skeptic and two, Verdugo doesn't have a strong fantasy profile. If it works, he can hit for average but doesn't have much pop or speed. In the outfield, that's not something I'm getting all that excited about until he hits in the upper levels.
I'll take the under on batting average on just about any projection I've seen on him so far, including <span class="statdef"><a href="http://www.baseballprospectus.com/glossary/index.php?search=PECOTA" onmouseover="doTooltip(event, jpfl_getStat('PECOTA'))" onmouseout="hideTip()">PECOTA</span></a>. If he's actually a .250 hitter (or you believe he will be a .250 hitter), he should move up considerably on this list, likely around 20-25 spots.
At a buck, absolutely. Just be prepared to move on when the Royals do.
If Choo was putting up his peak numbers that early in his career, yea he probably would be when compared to this current crop. I like Stanton as much as the next guy, but he's a 26 year old slugger whose value is derived almost exclusively from his power and he's never hit 40 homers in a season. The argument for Stanton over Betts is that maybe he will stay healthy, and that's not an argument I'd want to make. If I owned Stanton, I'd trade him straight up for Betts.
Both are not low risk on this list.
I will be chatting again shortly, and we'll cover everything including the the Dynasty 101.
He'd probably be in the next 10-15 names after the HM group, but it's more general proximity than the suspension in particular.
Nope. It's almost impossible to have a 15- or 16-year-old on this list solely because of lead time. Maitan is really, really exciting for a J2 prospect, but let's not get too far ahead of ourselves. Yet.
I wouldn't, since I doubt he plays much in 2016 (if at all) because of how slowly free agency moves for Cuban defectors.
I mean, if you knew he was healthy, he could be in the top-five. As is, he should probably be valued like someone in the back of the top-20 or 25.
The easy answer is that first baseman are disproportionately valuable in fantasy leagues than in real life, which is why they fall down real-life prospect lists. If I told you that Vogelbach, at peak, would perform like 2015 <span class="playerdef"><a href="http://www.baseballprospectus.com/card/card.php?id=31366">Prince Fielder</a></span>? You'd be excited to roster him on your farm team. After all, Fielder was the 34th best fantasy hitter last season. On the other hand, he ranked 110th in <span class="statdef"><a href="http://www.baseballprospectus.com/glossary/index.php?search=WARP" onmouseover="doTooltip(event, jpfl_getStat('WARP'))" onmouseout="hideTip()">WARP</span></a> among hitters with 2.3, behind such baseball prodigies as <span class="playerdef"><a href="http://www.baseballprospectus.com/card/card.php?id=99963">Jake Lamb</a></span>, <span class="playerdef"><a href="http://www.baseballprospectus.com/card/card.php?id=858">Juan Uribe</a></span>, <span class="playerdef"><a href="http://www.baseballprospectus.com/player_search.php?search_name=Cesar+Hernandez">Cesar Hernandez</a></span> and Adeiny Hechevarria. The difference is more stark than dynasty owners often give it credit for being, and these rankings reflect that.
If you were really risk taking, I could see him making a list like this, but I'd have left him off. That said, he's likely to be on next year as he'll be a year closer to the majors.
This is correct. Assumes a 16-team league, which is pretty standard in dynasty formats.
For me (and I like both as well), it's higher-level experience and a little more projection in the hit tool. That said, they are much closer than it seems in the rankings, as the minors flatten out pretty quickly after the high-end guys this year. Tellez was probably #102 on the list--I did not enjoy having to cut him.
Two things: 1) the hit tool is kind of a big deal, and 2) I don't really think you can prove you can hit for power in the Cal League. Bellinger could absolutely prove me wrong by hitting for power without cratering under his strikeouts this year in Double-A, but I'm going to wait and see on this one.
Lourdes and Otani would likely have made the top-30. Yulieski would likely be in the 70-ish range.
He was not. The production was good at Low-A after getting drafted, but he was at a big-time college program. If he's still doing it this year as he moves up, he'll be a candidate.
Not particularly. Not enough proximity/upside yet.
Thanks! Both proximity and underrated value. He should be in Cincy this year and he can hit .300 with 20 homers in that park. That's a pretty big deal in our space.
We know our readers love a good Easter egg hunt.
You assume correctly.
It's a combination of being too far off and not quite having a ton of fantasy upside. He could certainly make the back portion of this list next year.
Fixed - thanks.
He'd slide in at #5 just ahead of <span class="playerdef"><a href="http://www.baseballprospectus.com/card/card.php?id=60672">Kyle Seager</a></span>.
Taken directly from my article last week: "On the other hand, the injury-prone Rendon showed what he could do in 2014, yet I still believe there’s more upside in his bat. He has the natural talent to both hit over .300 and pop 25-plus homers—and despite his unlikelihood to be eligible at this position next year, third base is nearly as bleak as second is."
He goes at 2B because that's his most valuable current eligibility. Trying to project future eligibility is a terrible exercise, so we go with what is instead.
There's plenty that we can't glean from stats, which is why scouting reports are so important. Machado was always very young for his level and was pushed aggressively by the Orioles—which led to his statistics not being overly impressive on the surface (though they were extremely impressive when you factor in league/age/etc). And yes, I think the power is legit and he'll hold it for a long time.
Gallo played 19 games in the outfield and 15 games at third, which is why he's included with the outfielders. If he were on this list, he'd slide into the very back of the top-10.
It's a premonition (there also may or may not be a Giants prospect on the just missed list coming out later this week).
He'd be in the late teens, likely ahead of Peraza.
Target release for the fantasy 101 is week after next.
Hernandez was the last player cut from this list, and actually Sweeney was the second to last. He may steal a few bases with multi-position eligibility, but if I'm going to take that sort of hole-filling player in a mixed league, it's going to be <span class="playerdef"><a href="http://www.baseballprospectus.com/card/card.php?id=59664">Brock Holt</a></span> (and he barely made the list himself).
Castro also played 109 games at shortstop last year, which is where he'll be ranked in two weeks.
SORBOR = Son of Raul, Brother of Raul.
Meh. Cubs Twitter is tame compared to the eligibility police. I'm ready.
Who's on second. Check back next week.
Ask for the author and he shall appear. Smoak was unranked, and frankly was behind at least 4-5 other major league names who were also unranked.
We don't rank for 12-team leagues. As is written in the primer, we rank based on a 16-team dynasty format. Dynasty rankings are a niche, so what's most popular across all fantasy baseball is pretty meaningless, in my opinion.
Funnily enough, in previous years we've gotten these same comments to remove subjectivity. You're never going to make people happy either way. Also, <span class="playerdef"><a href="http://www.baseballprospectus.com/player_search.php?search_name=Chris+Davis">Chris Davis</a></span> is a funny person to hang your hat on with an eligibility argument. Over the last five seasons, he's been 3B eligible twice, OF eligible twice and only once in that time has he gone into a season with solely 1B next to his name.
None of this matters. We're not Yahoo. The rules we use to determine eligibility is 20 games season-to-season and there aren't enough DH-only players to get their own week, so we wrap them in here. Everything else is just math.
Check the OF list in four weeks. I think you may be pleasantly surprised.
If you are playing <span class="playerdef"><a href="http://www.baseballprospectus.com/player_search.php?search_name=Chris+Davis">Chris Davis</a></span> at 1B this year, the joke's on you.
I really hope not. That would be terrible.
He's right on the cusp for me in that format. If it's not at the expense of another potential decent keeper, I'd hang onto him. Otherwise, let him go.
Thanks! I'd slot him into the <span class="playerdef"><a href="http://www.baseballprospectus.com/player_search.php?search_name=Josh+Bell">Josh Bell</a></span> tier (it's a pretty tight group there). I still think he can be a reasonable contributor, but that health track record is getting scarier by the day.
That depends on which argument you found more convincing.
I can see how that would be confusing and it's been updated. I was talking about JR. Thanks!
Nope, no interest in either of them.
There's one in every list. Thanks!
First, he got a full paragraph in JP's state of the position, which is an awful lot considering it's a macro view. Second, patience. There's lots of content this week on catchers and no shortage of d'Arnaud coverage.
Yes it will. And Olivera will be eligible for my Dynasty 101, which is going to be released later this off-season, leaving no fewer than three places at BP where he will be ranked w/r/t his value in dynasty leagues.
Robles would be in the Tucker tier, just outside of the top-10 and Espinoza back-end of the top-20; but very fluid among those groups. The Dynasty 101 will cover all of this in due time.
He was in the mix, and another name that got the boot from the HM section. Will be different if he continues to hit as he moves up, but for now, he's still in wait and see territory.
We all know I'm a glutton for punishment when it comes to lists, but I'm not that much of a glutton for punishment. If there's a lot of interest, maybe we'll run something on our favorite sleepers beyond the top 50 (but ranking players beyond that point isn't particularly meaningful).
I'm not a believer in him as a mixed league fantasy play, and I don't like his chances of winning and keeping an every day job in Baltimore. If for some reason he does, expect a decent average and a bit of power (essentially a poor man's <span class="playerdef"><a href="http://www.baseballprospectus.com/card/card.php?id=45446">Nick Markakis</a></span>).
I'm going to have a whole list of the best dynasty league prospects not currently in MLB later this off-season. I'll just say that he's got enough upside to make that list as a 15-year-old.
If <span class="playerdef"><a href="http://www.baseballprospectus.com/card/card.php?id=54488">Hector Olivera</a></span> were a pitcher, he'd be the third oldest pitcher on the Braves 40-man roster.
He was pretty unimpressive in his pro debut, and it raised enough questions to drop him towards some of the higher-upside prep pitchers. He's still easily the most likely of anyone in the HM group to make the majors and be on a fantasy roster, but the upside may be more limited than initially anticipated.
Hayes is a perfect example of the depth in this class. I originally had an Honorable Mention section twice as long as the one printed (but no one needs to see that). Once you factor in the international signings (there are 13 just on the list alone) and the post-draft risers, it becomes much tougher to get a mention. Hayes is a good prospect, but his fantasy ceiling is relatively limited and when matched with a pretty distant ETA, it's just enough to knock him out. Fantastic name though.
Thanks! Given his age and uncertainty, likely in the early to mid 30's. Could be a very exciting player though.
The easy answer is change your league rules so you're not bound to whatever players ESPN decides to add to the player pool. Track in ProBoards, or a Google doc. It's really easy and makes for a much better playing experience (and a more level playing field). Regardless, Reed would be up with Rodgers, De Leon would be near Kang and Martes would fall in the Tucker tier, near <span class="playerdef"><a href="http://www.baseballprospectus.com/card/card.php?id=70611">Carson Fulmer</a></span>.
There will be some, but not many. This first group of systems we're doing are very weak from a dynasty standpoint. Once we get to the second half of these lists, we'll be talking about nearly all prospects who are within that top-250. Would make for an interesting article though to round up my favorite fantasy prospects that did not make a team's top 10. Like that idea.
Hey! Look! It's analysis instead of a blank page now!
Agreed, and added (it was <a href="http://www.baseballprospectus.com/author/craig_goldstein">Craig Goldstein</a>).
Unless there is another deal, he fits in the exact same way he did before: not very well in the short-term. He could play if there's an injury, but we would have said that yesterday too. He's going to be a major leaguer, and quite possibly a second-division starter, but he's only a "SS of the future" by default.
None of our regular features are turned off, you just have to hit the "Return to 2015" button at the bottom of the homepage to get to them. Or you can use the link below:
Fixed! He doesn't turn 21 until later this year.
You mean 2016 Cy Young Award winner <span class="playerdef"><a href="http://www.baseballprospectus.com/card/card.php?id=47160">Clay Buchholz</a></span>?
I mean, Russell won the gold glove at second base in 2016. Do you really want to have a huge downgrade there just to have a slight upgrade at SS?
He's a free agent after this season.
Nope, it's not.
For me, no. Relievers don't belong on this list, as even <span class="playerdef"><a href="http://www.baseballprospectus.com/card/card.php?id=70812">Carson Smith</a></span> only cracked the honorable mention section (though if I were more confident he'd be the guy the rest of the year and going forward, he'd have been reasonably high on the list.
He's still in the top-100, but his chances of being a strong fantasy contributor is getting smaller by the day. Renfroe has a better chance of getting to his power, and he has more of it to start.
I'd have put him in a top-75. The injury plus the fickle nature of investing in catching prospects leaves him in no man's land right now, but he'll have the chance to get his stock back to where it was next season. It's just a shame as he really needs all the reps on both offense and defense that he can get.
Too many at bats - no longer qualifies. Wouldn't have made the list anyway.
He does! Then again, it also saves me the 20 different "so where would <span class="playerdef"><a href="http://www.baseballprospectus.com/card/card.php?id=68156">Maikel Franco</a></span> rank" questions, so it's pretty much a win-win for everyone.
He's in the group of the next 10 guys. He's getting closer, but the performance against minor league pitching is pretty much in line with expectations. I just don't see anything more than an average fantasy bat, and I'd rather gamble on a little more upside.
And yes, I have Mateo over Smith and Quinn.
Sure, they have the potential to steal 40 bases in the majors, but I'm also not sold that either of them hits enough to play every day. There's also a huge difference between the speed element that Hamilton brings and the speed element that all of these other speed-first guys bring.
And I like Lopez, but I skew heavily towards close-to-the-majors pitching on these lists, and his stuff isn't as good as the four pitchers on this list who haven't reached Double-A yet (I'm not including Manaea because he's essentially there). He could easily be swapped out with one of the HM guys and I wouldn't bat an eye.
Assigned seating, dinosaurs, and free refills. Doesn't get much better than that.
Sure, but there's a hard cap to his value in fantasy leagues because he doesn't hit for power and doesn't steal enough bases to compensate. If that's the upside, we're absolutely not talking about a top-20 fantasy option here, even in a weaker class. Plus, Coors won't be able to juice up Newman's counting stats. You can get contributors like that off the waiver wire. More often than not, you need the draft to get future stars.
Really tough to peg the Cuban guys at this point, as we're dealing with incomplete information and uncertain situations/timing. If Alvarez signs in July with the Dodgers, as heavily rumored, he'd slide right behind <span class="playerdef"><a href="http://www.baseballprospectus.com/card/card.php?id=70611">Carson Fulmer</a></span>. Martinez is likely to be a top-15 guy, but there is very wide variance in the reports on him thus far. The natural J2 guys will factor in earlier than usual, given the lack of depth, but even the top guys would still be in the 30's here.
Yes he did. This is what I get for starting on this the day after the draft ended. Fixed.
Additional names to be considered in the supplemental or second rounds: Trey Cabbage, Rhett Wiseman, Casey Hughston, Cadyn Grenier, Chandler Eden, Xavier LeGrant, Johnny Piedmonte, Jagger Rusconi, Saturnino Santa Cruz, Ryan January, Champ Rowland, Bubba Derby, and Levi Borders. Yes, these are all actual players in the BA Top 500.
I think he could stay at short for the first 3-4 years of his career, if he continues to make improvements. Olivera should have no impact on that, as he is more likely to play second base in 2016 than third base.
Both. I think Correa has more power potential and is more likely to stick at short.
Man, I hope so--and the Indians' pitchers have to be hoping for that as well. His low-ish ranking isn't a statement on when he'll get called up, just his overall fantasy value when he does.
Nope, never on the list. Gallo may have snuck on the list before the <span class="playerdef"><a href="http://www.baseballprospectus.com/card/card.php?id=31647">Josh Hamilton</a></span> trade, but once that happened there was not a realistic place for him to play. Even then, I was still surprised he got the call over Odor. Of course, injuries happen and teams surprise us--that's part of the beauty of the game.
Nope, he completely bypassed it. McCullers had four starts above High-A when he got the call, and when I'm putting together this list, it's more about probability than true talent. That said, no one expected McCullers (who was viewed as more of a bullpen arm in the long run coming into the season) to get to Houston this quickly and make this kind of impact. It's been awfully impressive.
This would have been a very strong play on words if I had known that it was the correct term.
I love our readers.
I think Correa is more likely than Seager, but if I were a betting man, I'd say there's a less than 50 percent chance that one of them is up. So if you can get Gallo now, you get Gallo now before the reset. Don't get greedy.
He'll likely be back in early July and he'll likely be pretty awesome because he's <span class="playerdef"><a href="http://www.baseballprospectus.com/player_search.php?search_name=Jose+Fernandez">Jose Fernandez</a></span>. More specifically, extended spring next week for a few starts, then likely a 4-start rehab stint. Can't imagine the Marlins want to rush him back.
The steps backwards in his strikeout and walk rates, along with the full rotation ahead of him, leave me very tepid on his mixed league value this year. He just needs to be so good with his command, given his pedestrian stuff.
Poor, poor <span class="playerdef"><a href="http://www.baseballprospectus.com/card/card.php?id=40963">Jhonny Peralta</a></span>. Never gets any respect. I'd have Correa behind both, and I think expectations for him should be somewhat in line with what <span class="playerdef"><a href="http://www.baseballprospectus.com/card/card.php?id=70633">Addison Russell</a></span> has done so far, with possibly a little more upside across the board (but not a ton--he's still super young).
I'd go Rodon, Heaney, Karns, Young.
I can't see it, even though we may get to the point where he deserves it.
Singleton actually has a chance to have a fringe-average hit tool, where the others have zero chance. Singleton also doesn't have Carter's power (then again, not many do).
I think Heaney and Norris are similar in a park-neutral environment. However, the park/defense in LA gives him a pretty clear edge for me this year in fantasy value, though I think we'll see them both at some point in June.
My educated guess is that he's back before the end of May. I think the Rangers want to see as much out of him as possible before Profar comes back in 2016.
He's certainly not worth dropping, but it may be in your best interest to see what trade opportunities are out there. Most of those offensive players shouldn't be out long-term, so in the event you can't find a trade partner, you should be able to ride it out.
Has to be Tazawa at this point, but keep an eye on <span class="playerdef"><a href="http://www.baseballprospectus.com/card/card.php?id=70758">Matt Barnes</a></span> as a sleeper there later on in the year.
Absolutely, and he's probably a few weeks away at this point, but he'll get there, barring a major setback.
I think they ease him back in, but he's back in the role within two weeks or so. Boxberger has been excellent, and frankly, it wouldn't shock me if he still ends up with more saves from here on out.
Singleton is at #11. There's a blurb on him and everything! Montero just isn't a realistic mixed league stash at this point, despite how much I would like him to be one (he made the AL-only dive last time, and still agree with that).
Nova was one of my last two cuts from the honorable mention section this wekk. Looks like he'll be back at some point in June, but the question with Nova is which version of him you're getting. That ballpark and division will not be kind to a pitcher trying to get his command back.
As of right now, I'm going to say Syndergaard, as the ballpark and league are going to be positive factors for him, while they will be the opposite for Rodon. They're pretty close though.
Out of $100. He's going to be expensive in an only, assuming he's not already owned (which is probably an uncommon situation).
Sure, but Middlebrooks is also a top-15 third baseman right now. If Franco comes up and does that, he'll be worth owning in all 12-team leagues.
Absolutely. He was one of my favorite NL-only reserve picks from the pre-season, and even though some of those hopes were dashed by the Maybin acquisition, he still could steal 15 bases in limited time this season. Though with it being more of a health question (I don't see the Braves giving up on Maybin any time soon), it's a less attractive proposition now.
The problem with Bundy is that the Orioles have already said that they're limiting his innings severely this year, which means even if he makes it to the majors, it is likely to be for only a brief period of time, and could very well be in relief. That said, he's looked awesome this year and if the innings weren't an issue, he'd easily be on the list at this point.
I don't think this works out well. I am avoiding him in mixed leagues until he proves otherwise--too much ratio risk.
I actually think he would be ready this season (though he'd likely hit the struggle bus pretty hard if he were promoted right now), but he's ranked so low because I really don't think Houston does it. I don't think they'll stay in contention long enough to make it worth their while, and given their recent treatment of <span class="playerdef"><a href="http://www.baseballprospectus.com/card/card.php?id=65992">George Springer</a></span>, they clearly let financial decisions carry big sway over baseball decision (not that I'm saying it's right or wrong).
Just to clarify, there's a gap of players between the list and the AL/NL sections. Those would not be players 30-40 (after accounting for the players on the Honorable Mention list). Griffin is facing a crowded house when he comes back, and he's behind both Parker and Nolin in recovery. He'll show up on the list at some point, but he's buried a little too deep right now.
I think Corbin has better stuff when healthy, and is coming off just the one surgery--so a shorter overall layoff. Plus, being in the NL always helps as well.
Agreed. I don't see Holdzkom being any higher than fifth on this list (at best) and he's not someone I'd worry about at this point.
He did not this week, but is trending towards qualification next week. And yes, in a non-shallow mixed, he's certainly worth stashing at this point.
Not really, unless they cut ties with <span class="playerdef"><a href="http://www.baseballprospectus.com/card/card.php?id=37145">Ryan Howard</a></span> in this situation, but it is always at least an incrementally good sign (just not a big one here).
Sure. I really like the combination of his profile (#4 starter, fly ball guy, not incredible stuff) in that ballpark. He's about to start a rehab assignment (had off-season hernia surgery) and could be ready to join the A's rotation in 3-4 weeks. I'm also not a <span class="playerdef"><a href="http://www.baseballprospectus.com/card/card.php?id=102077">Kendall Graveman</a></span> believer and think Nolin stands a decent shot at grabbing his spot (depending on what happens with their TJ guys).
How about <span class="playerdef"><a href="http://www.baseballprospectus.com/card/card.php?id=70093">Kevin Pillar</a></span>? He has a career <span class="statdef"><a href="http://www.baseballprospectus.com/glossary/index.php?search=OPS" onmouseover="doTooltip(event, jpfl_getStat('OPS'))" onmouseout="hideTip()">OPS</span></a> 100 points higher against southpaws, and would fit nicely in that role.
That is the problem with Taylor though, right? He has zero chance of forcing his way into the lineup, and while those pure injury guys will make their way onto the list, they have capped ceilings and less utility. If the Nationals didn't have such a loaded outfield, he'd easily slide into the top-10, but I'd rather be betting on opportunity at this point. It's the same reason why <span class="playerdef"><a href="http://www.baseballprospectus.com/card/card.php?id=100059">Stephen Piscotty</a></span> is barely hanging onto a spot in this list, despite the fact that I think he'd be pretty useful if Heyward or Holliday got hurt.
This is both the fun and difficult part of doing this list in April. There are so many players on the radar, that I could easily go 50 deep each week (though I might not survive by June though). Foltynewicz is just not a guy I buy as a starter right now, and though he may get an opportunity, I think he'll struggle to provide fantasy value due to the shortcomings in his game (command, control, secondaries). If he starts stringing together good outings and showing improvement, he'll pop up here, but I don't think he'll feature prominently.
Slim to none. I have very little confidence that Lorenzen would be a capable mixed league fantasy starter in 2015, even with opportunity. He's an interesting name to stash in NL-only formats though, I just think he's their seventh starter right now.
Thanks. Yes, it's about opportunity. The Mets have shown no interest in having him compete with Flores for the shortstop job, despite being similarly competent defensively, and there's very little chance the Mets trade <span class="playerdef"><a href="http://www.baseballprospectus.com/player_search.php?search_name=Daniel+Murphy">Daniel Murphy</a></span> at this point. That means it would have to be a major Murphy injury to open things up, and even that would be temporary. That said, after some of this logjam clears up, he'll make the list. He was one of the last 2-3 names to be cut.
I think he can hit MLB pitching well enough to be a good fantasy option. He's not a star though.
He's owned in 73 percent of leagues and doesn't qualify. On a related note, he shouldn't be owned in 73 percent of leagues.
I'm worried about him not pitching. He's trying to rehab an injury that often requires surgery and he has surgery to repair his flexor tendon, that will be his season. And Cingrani's issues run deeper than his repertoire--though that's the biggest issue. He runs up pitch counts too quickly and has trouble holding his stuff deep into games. That combination is troubling, to say the least. I think Cingrani as a starter is over.
Thanks, and I certainly understand that this is not meant for very deep leagues. However, for those, we not only have our <a href="http://www.baseballprospectus.com/column/deep_league_report/">Deep League Report</a>, but around once a month, I add an AL/NL only group at the bottom of the stash list for those in need of far deeper names. And I'd go Black over Rasmus. I don't see any redeeming value in stashing Rasmus, even in an AL-only.
Cain is owned in 53 percent of leagues, making him ineligible for this list. That said, I'm not optimistic about him at all for this year.
Not at all. I'd be very surprised if he was still in the minors in mid-June.
I think there's a pretty good chance we see Appel in the second half. He certainly has the talent to be a usable fantasy starter right out of the gate, but consistency hasn't been his strong suit as a pro thus far.
Of course. He was one of the last 3-5 names to get eliminated from contention this week. He'll surface in due time.
He's more of a second baseman, and it's going to be tough for him to jump frog both players. That said, it wouldn't be a huge shock, just too unlikely for him to make the list now.
Depends. How close to do you live to Chattanooga?
That would be awfully aggressive for the Twins, who generally give their prospects much more time in the upper minors. He's only had a half-season above High-A and is coming off a completely lost season. It's a poor bet that we'll see him in Minnesota this season at all.
I have zero confidence that the Yankees will turn to Refsnyder at any point soon. And even if they do, I don't think he's much of a fantasy option. <span class="playerdef"><a href="http://www.baseballprospectus.com/card/card.php?id=45606">Stephen Drew</a></span> may not be as good as he was a few years ago, but he'll get much more rope than I think you're accounting for. He's a good AL-only stash, but I wouldn't be bothering for now in mixed leagues.
Not particularly, no. I think Taylor is the better player (especially on defense), and it's only a matter of time before he proves that.
I would be pretty shocked to see Correa in the majors this year, even though I think he could handle the assignment by the second half. There's no reason for the Astros to start his clock, and we already saw this movie with Springer in 2013.
"The Alchemist" by That Fleeting World. If you want the full song, just e-mail me and I'll send it to you--it's not available on the general internet.
Sure, but the wins were already going to be tough to come by, so not sure it's a noticeable difference, especially since one of the guys they have could be decent enough in that role.
Yep, just 55 at bats last season.
His current ADP is exactly 15, so right at the end of the round.
Sure, but it's a lower-probability proposition, given his recent history and the park.
Any Indians/Pirates pitcher gets a slight bump up due to the Callaway/Searage effect, so while I don't particularly put stock into his spring numbers, he's a very worthwhile gamble.
Alcantara is hardly the first player to ever be somewhat overmatched at the major league level at 22 years old. He not only has never posted a strikeout rate higher than 22.7 percent at any stop in the minors, but doesn't share the pitch recognition concerns that plague Baez. And tools aren't an issue either, as he projects to have at least average tools across the board, including his hit. The approach may always leave a little to be desired, but if you're playing in an <span class="statdef"><a href="http://www.baseballprospectus.com/glossary/index.php?search=AVG" onmouseover="doTooltip(event, jpfl_getStat('AVG'))" onmouseout="hideTip()">AVG</span></a> league, that's much less of a concern. His placement here is not about safety (though his speed gives him an elevated fantasy floor), it's about upside and the fact that he's going to start the season out playing nearly every day. If he was a safe player, he'd be going 100-plus spots earlier.
How about <span class="playerdef"><a href="http://www.baseballprospectus.com/card/card.php?id=50073">Travis Snider</a></span>? He's a nearly perfect option for a situation like this. There's always <span class="playerdef"><a href="http://www.baseballprospectus.com/card/card.php?id=48892">Seth Smith</a></span>, if you ease off the gas when he's at Safeco.
I think Rua gets more playing time, but I think it ends up being pretty close, as Smolinski has plenty of paths to his own playing time in Texas.
That's certainly a big part of the reason why, but the other piece is that even without knowing how other people were going to spend, having locked in prices for starting pitchers is an easy way to ensure that there are leftovers at the end. Everyone views starting pitching differently and the valuations can be heavily skewed, so I liked my chances of there being a few names at the end I could choose from if I wasn't going to be picky. I also would have jumped in earlier if the situation had warranted it--but I didn't have to.
Haha. Thanks, Andrea! Good luck this season.
The direction of this was exactly as intended. If you're interested in just comparing values against draft position, I'd suggest checking out the Top 300 draft list we put out last week (along with being an awesome resource, it compares our list vs the latest ADP).
I guess. The only names I like even a little on that list are Garrett, Wittgren, Sherfy and Kela.
Yes. The worst.
He was in consideration for a HM spot (though that grew out of control pretty quickly). I like Lindgren a lot from a talent perspective, but with Betances and Miller ahead of him for the foreseeable future, saves don't seem like a likely outcome and they are the driver of value here.
Likely a spot or two above Burdi, but they'd both drop down the list. Meyer the reliever isn't all that much different from Burdi (except that he could be a half-season closer to the majors), and the extra competition diminishes either's ability to get saves in the future.
Not much. Don't play for holds, play for saves. New set up guys pop up at an even higher rate than new closers, so planning for them is usually a poor use of resources.
I'm not in on Ottavino. He still pitches in Coors and he can't get lefties out--which would be a much bigger problem in the ninth. His career OPS against versus left-handed hitters is .875 and that was only worse in 2014, with a .943 mark. Saves are saves, but that could get ugly.
I'll always have a little reservation with Ross, but he's not a lock for surgery and was quite good last year. If the price is right, there's room for anyone.
He'll always be a Jay in my heart. Thanks, Canada.
He almost made the list, but just fell short. Lots of risk without the potential payoff of even a Raisel Iglesias. I'd be pretty shocked if we saw him in Arizona this year, even with the mess that is their rotation.
No, it's actually Jung-Ho Kang. The dash is important.
Same answer as Castillo, but above Rodon.
He doesn't fit here, since he's 27 and a professional. Purely on dynasty league value, he's roughly towards the back-end of the top-20.
It's a (tongue-in-cheek) reference to this article: http://m.nydailynews.com/sports/baseball/mets/meet-matz-mets-pitching-prospect-line-article-1.2102556
It highly varies by player depending on risk factors and ETA, so there's no uniform answer on this.
No, but he's also not in a position to make this list given his risks. Wouldn't be surprised if he jumped on next year though.
Ask me again tomorrow.. :)
Yes, he has a higher raw fantasy ceiling. He just also has a muh more distant ETA and a lower likelihood of it happening.
It does exist and it will be posted soon.
No, he can actually hit for average. Also, he doesn't have Dunn-type power.
Ding ding ding.
Correct. Gordon has the potential to be a good fantasy shortstop, but he's a better real life prospect because he's likely to stick at the position.
Well, not really. If he's the guy he was post-trade, he's likely a top-40 guy and if he's the pre-trade guy, he may not make the list. It's factoring in both outcomes.
For me, it's not a similar ceiling. Nola may not be a potential ace, but grouping him and Blair together isn't something I'd do in fantasy. Blair just doesn't have the strikeout potential, even though he did make the list in a few early versions.
Yes, definitely the biggest surprise of the draft.
Based on how both of them project to hit against left-handers, I'd take Blackmon riding the pine a good chunk of the time over Choo playing against almost all southpaws.
Give me Desmond and Weaver any day of the week. I love Felix, but Desmond is criminally underrated. To be fair, I love Peralta where he went, but wouldn't change the 1/2 strategy for anything else that ended up happening.
Actually, the tier group doesn't end with Cabrera -- just the top 30. Not to spoil too much of what's to come tomorrow, but Span does clock in a three-star guy.
You are my secret weapon, Mr. Awesome.
Yep, definitely too far away for this list. He's essentially a year behind Albies developmentally with similar upside. Could sneak into the 40's next year.
There was an internal bet on how long it would take someone to ask about Moncada, and I'm proud to say that I won.
Yes, he's likely to end up as a second baseman, but he'd slot in somewhere between Seager and Lindor on this list. Whether he's before of after Segura depends on where he ends up and what level he starts at.
He's at #21. Old, but reliable.
I've been intrigued and burned by Cuthbert in the past. You wouldn't get much of an argument from me if you wanted to put him in the 40s here, but he's not much of a third baseman and he started logging time at first base in 2014 (37 out of 121 games). The bat just doesn't quite look like it has enough in it for mixed leagues at this point, even if he stays at third.
I put this in the comments of the 2B list, but just to make it more apparent, he was added into that list at #16 after slipping through the cracks.
For the record, my comment was tongue-in-cheek. He's one of the greatest players I've ever seen.
I've always been the low man on Nunez. I just don't think the power plays at the major league level the way it would need to for him to create fantasy value. Chapman is still very much a work in progress, but he could make this list next year with a solid first full season.
Not quite sure how he got lost from my sheet to the writeup, but Alvarez is now where he's supposed to be. And yes, I would take him over Mike Olt. As far as Asche, it's just a bad profile for fantasy unless you're in an only league.
Sure, when you get down to the bottom of the list, the players get more interchangeable. That said, I'm pretty down on Jagielo and I don't think he hits enough to worry about.
I will have Anderson higher than Crawford when my dynasty prospect list comes out, but it's a fascinating pick--especially coming from Eno, who was the person who supposedly "reached" on Mookie Betts last year (according to commenters at the time). Crawford has a higher floor, Anderson the higher ceiling, but they'll be compared to each other for a while.
Because he's not a prospect anymore.
Thanks - Mike did submit his commentary overnight and it is making its way into the piece as we speak.
This complaint is warranted - Lawrie should be ranked here with the 2B and clocks in at number 16, between Odor and Gyorko. There's certainly plenty of potential here, but the combination of his inability to stay on the field and recent disappearance of his speed languish him outside the top-15. It would not surprise me one bit if he played his way into the top-10 for next year.
He'd likely take a 5-10 spot jump, thought it may be mitigated by a few other players who can offer plus-defense and a enough bat to allow them to play.
The latter. He still played the vast majority of his games at shortstop last year, so until the Pirates actually move him (which is still likely), he'll remain a shortstop for our purposes. And yes, he's much better than Grant Green.
He's eligible at shortstop, which is where he will be ranked.
I wouldn't have done that, but I'm also somewhat down on all three of those guys. That said, it's not a bad trade--especially if it's a deep format.
He's eligible at SS, so you'll have to wait another two weeks for what will certainly be many words on him.
Predicting future eligibility is pointless, so we rank where they play. How do we know his eligibility lies there? He may be DH-only if Moss is healthy and plays 1B. He may be C eligible if Gomes gets hurt and he's forced into action there. Anything is possible, but for 2015, you're playing him at 3B barring a strange situation on your roster.
He's at the bottom of a very close group between 28 and 41, even though it's difficult to tell from the raw numbering. That said, he's a power-only fantasy bat, and there are question as to how much of the power he taps into--so while Yankee Stadium would help, the Yankees also haven't developed a home-grown hitter in almost a decade.
Slightly for 2015 only, close to none for long-term. He's been one of the most consistent players in all of baseball from a playing time standpoint throughout his career, and I'm not particularly concerned about anything lingering.
I mentioned him myself last week as a top-30 pick in dynasty drafts this off-season and he was a top-10 prospect in the Indians system, but he's an exciting fantasy prospect who really had an impressive debut and projects to hit for average and power (but not enormous power). Definitely a name that could be a big riser in 2015.
Thanks! Don't let the Vogelbach fatigue get you down. Stay strong.
Friends don't let friends play Buster Posey at first base. This will not be an issue any time soon.
He'd be the top 1B prospect, if we were eligible. Likely right after Mark Trumbo.
As far as the first question, you are absolutely correct. While he doesn't have impact speed, it's good enough to get to those totals when combined with his baseball IQ and instincts.
Mejia/Thorpe, yes for a third, assuming it's a 12-team league or greater. No on the other two.
He was not in consideration. Brown has some interesting tools, but has a long way to go before he puts anything together.
Thanks! If you can play Josh Harrison at another position that would be an upgrade, or can trade him for something else you need, I like that deal. Choo can be a nice bounce back candidate and catching prospects make for good trade chips. If you'd be relegating Harrison to the bench, I might hold off.
The rankings (or lack there of) of Cervelli and Sanchez have nothing to do with McGuire. Even with the framing ability, I don't buy Cervelli has anything more than a backup catcher, and Sanchez isn't interesting for fantasy anymore. Valle can't hit, but there's a non-zero chance he could be a better real life option than either.
Noticeably? No. But there's also not that big of a gap between them on this list (the end of the list gets smushed). The biggest difference between Hedges and Vazquez at the plate is that Hedges still contains a small amount of fantasy upside, given his potential for more power.
He lost his standard eligibility in 2014, and will be eligible for the 1B list next week. I wouldn't be surprised if he got it back this year though.
It'll be a long enough road for him just to be an MLB catcher. Being fantasy relevant is a step too far to project at this point.
I don't think Marlette is nearly the player his stats suggest and he falls I to the Realmuto bucket for me.
I'll take Peterson there.
Arencibia isn't the worst comp, but while Flowers may not have that kind of power, the park, lack of competition and underrated fantasy performance gets hit a decent spot here. You still shouldn't be counting on him as your starter though.
It's less a reflection on Realmuto, but on catching prospects for dynasty leagues in general. I either want playing time certainty and mediocre offense or potentially dynamic offense from the position. JTR offers neither, which is why he's on the outside looking in.
Devers is going to make the Dynasty 101, so he'd be much higher--in the Finnegan tier. Other guys would be in the 30s.
I wouldn't. That 8-10 range is as weak comparatively as the 1-4 range. If you could get three picks in the first 20 or so, that I'd probably do, unless you're in love with one of the top guys.
The short answer is that I don't think it works as a starter. And as a reliever he falls behind guys like Raicel Iglesias and Jacob Lindgren, both of whom didn't make the list either.
He's a big guy with a potentially big bat. He's also forever away and isn't likely a third baseman. It's a long road considering he's all bat, no eligibility, but hes a nice flier as a potential 25-plus HR hitter down the road.
Nope, that's a downgrade in both the player and the pick.
Albies is a very interesting real-life prospect, but falls a bit more flat in a fantasy context. He's someone who should probably be owned in that size format, but he likely wouldn't make this list.
Thanks! I really appreciate that.
If only there was an NL-only focused catcher article coming out tomorrow. Oh wait, there is! :)
I would make that deal. The drop from 3 to 16 isn't as deep as in most years, and Polanco trumps Walker, so you're essentially being compensated Daniel Norris--which is fantastic compensation.
People are too concerned about the hit tool. Sure, it's not his strongest area, but there's no reason he can't do what Marcell Ozuna has been doing, but with more power.
Molina is a very exciting flier, and is a potential five-category stud. He'd be a borderline top-20 name on this list. Diaz has huge power and is a fun profile to gamble on. The others wouldn't register here yet.
He's not really a kid as he'll be 27 in April. He also has a lack of fantasy upside, as while he can contribute in batting average, he doesn't offer much in the way of power or speed. We also have no idea when he's coming to MLB.
I'd have him in the exact same place if I knew he would never play another game at catcher in either the majors or minors. Losing the eligibility would be unfortunate, but he'd get to the majors quicker and the offensive potential would be accentuated. I'm a huge believer in the bat, so while the dream is for him to play 150 games a year, while nabbing 30 of them at catcher for eligibility purposes, a full OF Schwarber is a big time fantasy prospect.
The combination of a long road ahead of him and diminished upside for fantasy leaves him outside the group here. He's an interesting name to store away in the back of your mind though.
He probably would have made a top-75, but while the power is nice, he's unlikely to stick at third and is going to have to prove that he can use the power as he moves up to a more age-appropriate level.
Correct. In points leagues, I'd slightly bump up more natural hitters like Chavis, Pentecost and Zimmer, while dropping down speed-based guys like Turner, Harrison and Hill. But don't move them around too much since it's very hard to predict league differential this early.
To that point, there's actually going to be a full fantasy profile on Mesoraco coming on Friday. So many words!
This is a question that will be answered by the 101 next month. Also, playing in leagues where the player pool is dictated by who just happens to be added is no way to live.
They were all on last year's list, and I'd still rank them Devers, Jimenez, Torres.
Iglesias was eligible for the list and did not make it. He's a reliever, and I'm just not particularly excited about his fantasy future, especially in the context of a deep class of amateur talent hitting the ranks. Lopez would likely sit right around where Finnegan is.
I'd argue that Harrison and Verdugo aren't five-category bats and they're both very far away from reaching their potential. Plus, you have to go with where the value is in each draft, and this particular draft is a little arm-heavy in that area.
Take Russell. He good.
Thanks! For Moancada, he belongs in the first tier, but how high you want to take him is likely dependent on your risk aversion. Personally, I'd slot him third, but you could make a perfectly rational argument for first or fifth. Ibanez would be lower down just because he doesn't carry the same fantasy upside, and he's slot in the 13-14 range given his uncertainty. Then Olivera is a very different case, as he'd be valuable now but is pushing 30. He'd go right in the same range as Ibanez though, since I think he'll sign soon and return fantasy value in the near term.
Approximately a week after the Top 101 gets released--likely around mid-February.
It's OK. Your co-workers will understand.
The PFM release is tied to the finalization of PECOTA, so while I don't have an exact date, it should be roughly the same time it was last year.
They are all on the Fantasy Resources page, which is the first drop down under the Fantasy header. The direct link is here:
Click on the teams and you'll get the previews, then as we make our way through the positional series, those articles will show up on the diamond below.
If only someone was writing a post detailing the schedule of our positional coverage, including when it will start and what it will cover..
(It starts Monday, but seriously, look for lots of info from me tomorrow.)
Yea, I would do that. I actually just saw Cuddyer get traded in one of my dynasty leagues today for Franklin Barreto and that felt pretty close to right, so getting someone like Liriano would be even better.
I'd have Liriano well above Moya, Santana and Rodriguez for fantasy; and just slightly behind Alcantara.
The marginal cost thing is accurate, and Jeff Quinton talked yesterday about how teams prefer not to give up a first round pick if it's their only first rounder. However, Melky would have made no sense here as he would force either Cuddyer (who they just signed) or Granderson to the bench. If you had said Hanley Ramirez, that I'd agree with you on--as shortstop is a bit of a black hole in the organization. But given their unwillingness to spend even a portion of that on Lowrie (or get involved in Kang, if you believe the latest rumor) leads me to believe they're just going to cry poor for another off-season instead of trying to contend.
I mean he's unlikely to start throwing 200 innings at this point. He's a near lock for the rotation right now.
I would imagine they'd start out in Triple-A, since he still hasn't reached the level. And I'd be very surprised if he wasn't getting every day at bats somewhere.
When you really dig in, it was September that uglied up his stats for the year. In fact, August was his best month of the year as far as walk rate and strikeout rate. From a valuation standpoint, he doesn't really need to get better than his aggregate 2014 in order to be a stud. He drove the ball better than expected and he's shown the ability to adjust throughout the minors. He doesn't have to do much to be a .270 hitter, and he can do that, the steals will be there.
Well, if we're numbering things, I'm game:
1) I used those numbers because 2013 was the most recent season updated on Clay's site. I didn't do any more digging because not only are Cuban stats inaccurate but their relevance is highly overstated.
2) Sure, Tomas won't have a great walk rate. He likes to swing. This is OK. Unless you're in an OBP or points league, don't lose too much sleep over it.
3) I always enjoy a good straw man. Tomas is not nearly as good of a hitter as Abreu, nor do I think he will take "that step" towards being as good as Abreu. You simply made the point that no one with a 20% strikeout rate in Serie Nacional could be successful in MLB and that happened to be Abreu's rate through Tomas' age.
4) Happy Thanksgiving.
Not sure where you're getting your numbers from, but if you're going to look at Serie Nacional numbers, might as well make it apples to apples.
Strikeout rates through their age-22 seasons in Serie Nacional:
Cespedes - 14.6%
Puig - 15.3%
Tomas - 17.8%
Abreu - 21.3%
That looks like the starting OF at this point, but whoever gets the 4th OF job may very well get 400 plate appearances anyway, and whoever doesn't will likely end up back in the minors. That battle matters for deep mixed and NL-only formats.
Absolutely not in a negative way. In fact, you could argue that the Diamondbacks need his defense even more with Tomas and Trumbo potentially flanking him in the corners. He's going to get quite a workout, and I do like Pollock as a good value this season. You too!
As far as Fedde's fantasy comment, the fourth category is wins. I'd be drafting him comfortably as a starter, at least compared to other similarly ranked pitching prospects.
I think labeling Robertson as the "biggest disappointment", in the context of this piece, is misleading, but the commentary is getting at the same point you are. Robertson may have been thrown further into the spotlight this season by being "the guy who made the A's feel comfortable trading Addison Russell," but he's realistically more of a good everyday up-the-middle guy (as you allude to) than a star.
And yes, Russell was shut down the week prior to our team getting out to Arizona.
We also have a dedicated Scoresheet triumvirate who will be covering these things specifically from that angle. Do not worry, friend, we have you covered.
Would have to be a pretty deep league for him to be keeper-worthy at this point, but he still does have that power lingering in the bat if he can just tap into it. It certainly doesn't look like it will happen in that org though.
Aoki is a bit safer, but I think I'd still roll Polanco out there.
Thanks! Much appreciated.
Rodon is actually already listed on CBS and he's a RP-only, as they like to do with pitching prospects.
Haha. But there is plenty of playing time and performance uncertainty. Be optimistic and tread carefully.
Sure, he may debut, but he's probably going to be up as a reliever (in the Chris Sale mode) and not closing, so there's no fantasy appeal in mixed leagues.
Thanks! Depends if you're shooting for upside or certainty. I think there's a better chance Heaney is in the rotation at that point, but Walker could be more impactful for fantasy teams.
He's a pretty good name as well, though I think he'll start to make more of an impact in 2016 than he will in 2015. He'll always have the whole right-handed hitter in Safeco thing against him, but he's certainly shown very well in the minors thus far.
I'm so proud. /sheds a tear
Have we forgotten the #FreeMikeTrout campaign? That one kinda worked out pretty well.
If you're specifically looking for average and steals, I'd prefer Fowler. Stubbs is pretty close in overall value for the short term while CarGo is still out.
I can't see it. He's not on the 40-man and they have La Stella covering the every day 2B job with Bonifacio (or Upton, if they bench him) as the speed guy off the bench.
Yes, if anyone could move up the defensive spectrum right now, it's Ryan Howard. And yes, that's supposed to read third base.
Sure. Big fan of his in dynasty formats. Don't think he has much fantasy impact this year. Plus, I'm not going to put him on the list here until he's signed and able to be picked up in fantasy leagues (outside of the handful of leagues where you can pick up non-MLB players).
Lots of Soler questions, so I'll cover it here. I do think Soler gets to the majors in September, but I don't think he gets there in August and think his impact is limited down the stretch. He's certain to show up on this list next week once the trade deadline guys clear out, but just because he's killing minor league pitching right now doesn't mean I don't expect him to struggle in September in the at bats he gets. He has minimal upper minors experience at this point, and that may show brightly in his cup of coffee.
No real consideration. I'm not a big fan.
I'd go Giles over Fields, but I like both. He's a better pitcher right now, despite the hot streak Fields is on.
He'll show up post-deadline, but with no spot for him in LA, he's just an injury wait (and I'm still not sold on his bat anyway).
He's very unlikely to make this list. I don't see a scenario where he gets to the majors in 2014. Especially not ahead of Bryant.
He didn't qualify, but would probably slot in around where Betts was--I think they're of similar value long-term. Odor won't be flashy in fantasy, but he has the potential to contribute all over with a high average.
It's all about the defense. Anderson has far more potential for fantasy than Crawford, regardless of what position he ends up at.
He'd clearly be in the top-100 at this point, but he wasn't seriously considered for the list.
Neither? Alfaro is his own creation and could hit .260-.270 with 30 homers and double-digit steals if it all works. But despite impressive BP sessions and raw tools, it's still unlikely to all work in that fashion.
If I knew 100% that he would never play a game in the majors at SS, he'd still be ranked in the same spot. The bat is real, and while the power may not be elite, the overall package could be extremely valuable at either position.
Yea, he'd come pretty close to top-30 if he were on the list. The performance is impressive, but he's an advanced college bat and he should be impressive. The next step will be a big test.
Could be 25+ homers at peak. He's a monster of a prospect.
He'd be the top pitcher, either right before or right after Sano.
There is exactly one player still in Low-A ahead of Dahl on this list, and that's Giolito--who could be the best pitcher in baseball one day. Dahl has big fantasy potential, but I'm not ready to make that kind of statement on him.
It's better, but it's still not a high-end profile. Peraza would have made the list had it gone 15-20 names deeper.
As of right now, only Rodon and Schwarber would make the top-50. A healthy Aiken would as well, but that's an unresolved situation. The depth of this draft class is significantly stronger than the high-end talent.
Manaea was actually on the first two incarnations of the list, but fell off at the end. The stuff and command has been inconsistent and he's further away at this point than I thought he'd be. I fully expect him to make the top-50 in the off-season though.
Very close. Another late cut. I'm more concerned about the org's inability to develop hitters than I am the move from 3B to 1B.
The combination of the shoulder injury, organization and future home park all played a role in his barely missing the top-50. He would have been in the next 10 though.
I'd take Gee and Stroman for ROS. Would love to say Gee and Gausman, but I don't trust the Orioles to give him a full complement of starts.
This may put a natural cap on his fantasy value, but it doesn't preclude him from having any. Nor does it resign him to being shipped off to the bullpen for the playoff push (though that may happen).
It's definitely jumping the gun for 2014, as he's just returned from injury. He's an interesting name for the second half of 2015 though.
If everyone stays healthy the rest of the way, I'd expect to see Nelson in the pen in September. However, until then I think he's more valuable as a really good sixth starter ready to go when someone gets hurt. Especially with guys like Garza and Estrada in the rotation who have injury histories. Then there's always the inherent risk of moving a guy to a short burst role (where I think Nelson could thrive) and then stretching him back out if there's a need.
All signs pointed to merely a September call up for Santana prior to about 3am today. I don't think he makes a great play in mixed leagues this year due to his propensity for the whiff, but he could hit .230 with 10 homers the rest of the way. If that's valuable to you in an OF spot, he's worth it. He wouldn't have ranked that highly here even if we thought he was coming soon.
:Laughs maniacally while stroking Jayson Werth's beard:
I don't think he's as much lost in the shuffle as he is just not as good as the other guys. I'd rather have RLDR, Webster, Barnes and Owens than Ranaudo. And Refsnyder is a nice story until he actually shows he can hit at the major league level. If he's Matt Carpenter lite, it's the difference between an ice cream sundae and a three dippin' dots.
Well sure, Liriano would higher than 23 if he were eligible here. He's definitely a better stash than Garcia.
Thanks! Gimme Skaggs of that group, and I'll take the under on those ratios and the over on the innings.
I still really like Butler long-term, but until there's some better news there, it's a big no thank you from me. Shoulders + Colorado = bad news.
A little concern, but I've never been particularly high on his 2014 value. Still think he'll get a shot relatively soon, but innings limit and control will hurt him at the major league level.
It's not a matter of being afraid of polish, it's a matter of being unexcited by polish. Heaney deserves some excitement despite having the trait that often leads to middling fantasy performance.
That would help, huh? I did have a blurb there at some point, but it never made it to editing. Here's the abbreviated version: Polanco great. Drool. Polanco smash ball. Polanco run. Drool. Top of the order. Drool.
They're both pretty uninteresting options. Woj is likely behind Nick Tropeano in the pecking order and the guys in Houston have done a much better job than anticipated. Gonzalez is an overrated arm based on how much money he got, and I'm not convinced he'll be more than a middle reliever.
Absolutely I think we see him again. I just don't think he becomes relevant in mixed leagues. He's growing on me long-term, but I just don't think the requisite production would be there if he got the call tomorrow.
He'll be back, likely as soon as next week. There's a glut of players yet to move off the list, so the talent pipeline is strong. That said, the Rockies' ability to keep their pitchers healthy is a concern and affects Anderson's ROS value.
I'm not a Logan Morrison believer. I don't think he returns much (if any) value in mixed leagues this year. He's certainly worth owning in AL-only or very deep mixed, but otherwise he's waiver wire fodder for me.
He's still a big question mark with the elbow, so until there's more clarity on that, he's off the list. If he's out more than a couple of weeks, either Wisler or Kelly is likely going to beat him to the punch anyway.
Thanks! Just for this season? It makes things much closer, and I may lean Bryant.
Decent - but not great. I'd put him right around where I have Salazar value-wise (but with Straily having a better chance to return with lower upside).
Could be as soon as next season, as you never quite know when closers are going either going to lose effectiveness or leave town. Burdi could be one of the 10 best relievers in the game at peak, so even if he doesn't close, he may still carry decent value.
He is a good, projectable arm, but his inclusion in HM isn't a red mark, it's a sign of the depth of the class. He'd be in the 25-30 range of the two most recent classes, and it's his rawness and ETA that pushes him out of the top-50. Some prep arms I like (him, Sands and Gatto) could have certainly been included in that last tier, but were excluded because of the general risky nature of second-tier prep pitchers for fantasy.
On the low side, I'd say about 15 players from this list will be on the top 100 fantasy prospects list at season's end. On the high side, it could be over 20. Feels like the no-brainers end around Beede for me.
This draft is deep enough that he'd probably slide into the 15-20 range. You never know with Cuban players who haven't already defected, like Jorge Despaigne (who is a name to store in the back of your mind), but two guys coming from Asia (Jeong Choi from Korea and Kenta Maeda) are both worth monitoring for fantasy. They could each carry some immediate value upon arrival (if they come for 2015).
I'm hands off on Salazar. I've never been a huge believer in the profile, and his performance in Triple-A is not inspiring. If he comes back and starts improving at the minor league level, it will be time to add him to the list, but until then, no thanks.
I'd rank them Kennedy, Heaney, Kuroda, Niese.
With Singleton graduating, Schwarber becomes the top fantasy 1B prospect in the minors as soon as he signs--though admittedly, it's not the highest bar to clear.
Thanks! Aiken and Rodon would probably sneak into the back of the top-10 pitching prospects (or possibly just miss), with Kolek and Nola cracking the top-20 for very different reasons.
If it's a keeper league, I'd stash Bryant. If it's not, I'd still take Heaney.
He certainly is, but he's too heavily owned to qualify for the list (31 percent at last look). He'll likely show up next week or the week after.
I'd rank him as a top-40 outfielder the rest of the way in redraft leagues.
Correct - though I still think Webster makes for a nice (and now cheaper) AL-only target. I think he'll see some starts if/when RLDR struggles.
He's been hanging around the Honorable Mention section throughout the season, but it's tough for him to get too high on the list because the combination of rookie pitcher and Coors Field can be hard to overcome to return strong fantasy value. Butler has the talent to be the exception to the rule though--so yes, keep an eye out for his name as some of the mainstays finally graduate (I hope).
If both were up tomorrow and were going to get the exact same playing time, I'd take Pederson over Singleton.
Yep, I fat fingered that one. He was at .347 before going 0-for-4 last night.
Yea, I'd drop De Aza for Polanco now. He should be up shortly and has the potential to hit .270 with 7-10 homers and 15-20 steals.
I'm highly skeptical that a player who the organization has questions about sticking at second can even cover shortstop in a utility role. His best chance is Dee Gordon crashing back to earth.
I think Fiers may be more likely to get the call in a spot start situation, but if there's a long-term need, Nelson should be the guy. Fiers is smoke and mirrors.
How dare you? Zach Britton is a saint. I thought we were friends.
It won't be much longer. Mid-June is a good expectation.
Tepesch is a better option than Ogando, but figured he was likely owned in AL-only formats at this point. He requires less creativity.
Depends how many players you keep. If it's very shallow, I'd drop Stroman. If it's deep, I'd drop Straily. But yes.
Not at all (either way), and I would drop Bauer for Syndergaard in any format.
Yes, listen to Mike. He's a smart dude. Cobb is owned in more than 85 percent of leagues out there, so putting him on a list like this provides no added value. He's great, we love him, he'll be back soon.
It's tough when there are no graduations in a given week. A few names made jumps, Kelly did not. He'll be back as soon as this coming week (especially with Gausman and Montero looking like graduates).
Correct. This still holds true for me. Love him long-term though.
The point is that it doesn't matter. The Cubs want to see what they have in Olt. They can't do that if he's in Triple-A or on the bench. What's the rush to get Bryant up anyway? It's not like he doesn't have things he needs to work on in the minors.
Was on the list last week, but dropped off due to setbacks with his recovery. He'll be back one he gets a little closer, as the age and nature of the injury (wrist--which is never good for a power hitter) provide a few question marks.
Maybe August if you are super optimistic, but I'd be very surprised if he makes any sort of fantasy impact in 2014. The Cubs are still in the evaluation stage with some of their major league roster, including Olt--plus he's behind Baez and Alcantara for a promotion. On top of that, he needs more reps at 3B to see whether he can play the position at the major league level. The guy hasn't even played 100 pro games yet (including the AFL), let's all just take a breath.
My love for Cody Allen is known far and wide across this kingdom. Unfortunately, he's too widely owned to make this list. :(
Jesus Aguilar? Is this RotoLando?
I wouldn't bother with either guy, as their odds of making the roster (and then making an impact) is very small. I'd have to be in either a very deep mixed or AL-only format to do that.
Yea, I think I would unless you're relying on Keuchel for "now" performance.
I'd imagine they'll try to use him in multiple inning stints just to keep him stretched out, but that's pure speculation.
I'd stash Syndergaard of the two, and I'd cut Bradley for him.
You answered your own question. He has nowhere to play. Love his potential long-term, but he certainly seems to be in the wrong organization. Would take a trade and an injury to get him in there.
There's no reason for the Orioles to rush Bundy into anything and Gausman is ahead of him on the depth chart anyway. I wouldn't be surprised if Bundy acts as a reliever at the major league level in August/September.
And yes, Heaney over Stroman for performance, not timing. Though I do think we'll see Heaney in May.
He's been lingering around the back part of the list each go around so far, but fell off this one. I just don't see the Dodgers rushing to displace Gordon, who's been pretty great thus far. Also, there continue to be defensive concerns about Guerrero which play a role here.
The point is that their performing similarly enough that the Indians could go in either direction. If Bauer's the seventh starter, his value goes way down in redraft leagues.
I like both a good amount in the long-term, and Meyer was very close to being added this week. The problem with him is that the Twins are likely to monitor his innings very carefully and there's absolutely no reason to bring him up before Super Two has passed. That leaves a small window for which he can contribute this year, and there's no guarantee that he'll be successful in that stretch. I keep thinking there's very little chance we see Gray this year, but he keeps changing my mind start-by-start. Think Butler gets there first, but maybe August now--which is exciting.
If you aren't currently starting Venable, I would. But it's kinda close.
Nope. I think any negative for his 2014 value from the slow start is equaled by the positive of Cody Asche being pretty bad.
I think Baez gets the first shot at 2B and he's ahead of Mendy on the depth chart right now. If Baez didn't exist, Alcantara would be higher.
I'd say .260 with 15 homers and 12 steals, assuming he comes up to the majors at some point in June and gets around 350-400 plate appearances.
Dickerson is someone I'd pay attention to in deeper leagues if the Colorado outfield becomes either murkier or injurier (that's now a word). I'm not a big believer in Johnson's bat, and I definitely like Adam Eaton a whole lot better than him.
As far as much lower-probability guys I have my eye on, I'd say Kyle Parker, Sean Nolin and Justin Nicolino.
Yes, for 2014, I'd want Syndergaard over Bradley. Long-term, I think it's very close, but I'd lean Bradley.
I had many deep thoughts about Bauer this week. My thought was that he should either be in the top-15 or off the list entirely, depending on whether I thought he would be a realistic positive contributor this year. I love the steps forward that he appears to be taking this season, and I very much want to believe in Bauer, but right now I'm just not there yet for 2014. The Indians also have other options for when Carrasco spontaneously combusts on the mound.
If Bauer continues along this path, he's going to have a prominent position on this list (and soon). But I need to see a little bit more.
The list returns on Tuesday the 22nd and will go straight through the rest of the season.
I might as well jump in here. For fantasy purposes, I'd go Bogaerts, Baez, Correa, Russell, Lindor.
It will definitely be something I talk about as June progresses, but even when we get there, it's still just an estimate.
I'd be pretty surprised if we saw him before either August or September, and all of the other players on this list have a good chance to see major league time in the first half.
Unless you're in an AL-only league, I don't think Burns will be worth picking up. He'd be very stretched as anything closer to an every day player and Oakland expects to contend.
Syndergaard is the best equipped of the group to return immediate value in fantasy leagues. He's fully healthy (unlike Walker) and he has a strong current command profile (unlike Bradley), plus he'll be in a favorable division/home park.
Because I still have a little faith that he can still hit and he still has catcher eligibility for 2014. I'm aware that I'm one of the few remaining members of this bandwagon.
He's not only too far away, but he's also going to miss the beginning of the minor league season as well with a wrist injury. We won't see him in 2014.
I have zero faith in Colby Lewis both staying healthy and being productive.
I don't see him on the list at any point in 2014, as I don't think that call up is happening. However, he is advanced enough to feature prominently on the initial 2015 edition.
Garcia has two problems--uncertain health and a very deep Cardinals rotation. He's one of my personal favorites from a talent perspective, but I'm getting more and more concerned that he doesn't play much of a role with the Cardinals this year.
Wisler was one of the last cuts from the list. And it stems from both the fact that I don't think Wisler is ready to contribute meaningfully yet and that I believe in both Robbie Erlin and Casey Kelly (when he returns). Wisler will see major league time this year, but I don't think it comes until the second half.
I'd be surprised if Cole saw major league time in 2014 for two reasons. First, the Nationals have at least seven starters ahead of him (Roark, Jordan, Detwiler). Second, he's not ready and needs to make real strides with his breaking ball to get major league hitters out on a consistent basis.
Couldn't have said it better myself. I like Gray a lot long term, but he doesn't belong here yet.
Morales and Drew aren't part of the universe for this list, though if you're allowed to pick them up, they certainly make for interesting fliers. Francisco isn't a guy I'd be worried about stashing at this point--even if he got the playing time, I doubt he'd be able to do enough with it.
It's very close, but I think I'd still lean Wong. However, if Ackley ends up at the top of the Mariners' lineup and Wong ends up being in the 7th or 8th spot in St. Louis, I'll flip them.
Considering he went for a dollar in both NL LABR and NL Tout, I'd think you could certainly get him for $2, and possibly the same $1 (those are both 12-teams NL-only).
He can, but he's also Chad Qualls. He's certainly flier worthy as well, I just like Crain better for value.
Sure. Baez was actually the last player I cut from the 12-team mixed league list. He's got all the potential in the world, but I don't think we see him until June and even elite prospects like him are still more likely to struggle in their first taste than succeed. But if you have room, by all means--he could be special and there's certainly a chance it could happen later this year.
If there's one thing I know for sure about Craig is that he always plays by the rules.
So essentially what you're asking for, just happens to be right here, no?
The point of this series is just to have a little fun with trying to poke holes in some of the PECOTA projections in a fantasy context. I mean, sure, I could have chose Taylor Jordan for my guy, but I would say that R.A. Dickey is a huge longshot to lead the league in WHIP. When you go that deep, this becomes an entirely different exercise--and a much less interesting one in my opinion.
I vaguely remember seeing some, but there's not much to it. There are some recent examples of players who have that rep (be it Mark Teixeira and Aramis Ramirez as players who are worse in April/May), but those are the extreme examples.
Yea, but guys like Adams and Moss have far too high of a draft position to qualify here, and Ethier doesn't have a job--which makes the platooning far too cumbersome for most.
Absolutely. He was on the short list for inclusion in this exercise.
I'm nervous. I don't want to be nervous, but I am.
A lot of his value comes from his defense, and I don't think there's all that much to his fantasy game besides some pretty good speed. He would have made a top 150.
Rosario was eligible for this list, but wasn't all that close. Anderson has much more tangible fantasy upside right now.
I would leave it pretty much as is, but drop Billy Hamilton out and bump Archie Bradley up to the 10 spot. Even Sano, Springer and Bryant (with their potential for strikeouts) can be overlooked due to their ability to walk and rack up extra-base hits.
Thanks, Howie. Mejia's overview should read "Three-category contributor; Impact potential in ERA"
Yep, that was a data entry error on my part. He's now been updated to be $25-30 and high risk (just like similarly control-challenged starter Aaron Sanchez).
Thanks! And yes, that's up with Part Two of the list today..
In any format that speed becomes more important, Alcantara gets a nice bump. Hard to say exactly how much more without knowing your league.
He'd be somewhere around 20 right now. We'll see where he is when he gets into pro ball.
He'd fall at #23, behind Nick Castellanos. I have my long-term durability concerns about Salazar.
Exactly. I still believe Hamilton could be a .280-.290 hitter with his speed creating strong BABIPs. That's a contributor, though not an impact one.
I'd put Tanaka at #19 behind Bundy, if I were ranking him purely on fantasy value.
Thanks! I'd consider 14-16 teams the midpoint between shallow and deep in a dynasty league, so in your format, I'd lean towards Alcantara over Odor.
Oh man, you really don't want to read Paul Sporer's 3-year ranking piece then..
It's a slight separation, but I believe Wainwright has the better skill set for a pitcher as he ages. Plus, Verlander's 2014 mild injury concerns factor in.
On the contrary, I think the Stephenson ranking is very strong. He's ahead of other similar pitching prospects in Kyle Zimmer and Mark Appel and pitching prospects are risky. That's why none of them crack the top-28. And the extra year of development time puts him a good amount behind Walker/Bradley.
See next week. Smyly is ranked with the relievers for consistency across eligibility (he'd be between Sanchez and Crick at #100 on this list were that not the case).
I actually play in two. I'd have Rodon in the top-50, right around Tanaka and Cashner, but he's got his work cut out for him to keep it there this spring.
Thanks! I think you're underselling Parker's potential in strikeouts. He has much better stuff than his K-rate would indicate. Fun fact about Parker--his changeup had the highest whiff rate among any starter who threw it more than 200 times. I think the strikeouts are coming.
Nope. Not a believer that he'll stick as a starter long-term and in the short-term, he's just not all that valuable.
I have finally solved the Casey Kelly mystery. The second Casey Kelly should actually be Nick Kingham. Huzzah!
Thanks! I don't love the profile combined with the park--and I think his fantasy value (outside of deep leagues) suffers because of it. I think he's a better real life pitcher than fantasy one.
No, it shouldn't make you upset. He's still a high-end fantasy outfielder.
I knew I was going to miss someone in the transfer. Fowler should be at #48, ahead of B.J. Upton. Thanks for the catch!
And if a frog had wings, he wouldn't bump his a** when he hopped.
If his 2B eligibility were magically erased today, he'd slide in at the back-end of the top-10. Likely right around Miguel Sano and Pedro Alvarez.
The last cut was Cecchini. Baby I know.
Yes, he was another late cut (he may actually have been 51 or 52). If he flashes more of the power next year, he could take a big jump on this list.
He was a late cut. The combination of an ETA that's forever away and upside that's not star-level from a fantasy standpoint kept him off. He's extremely likely to make this list next year though.
I don't believe Iglesias will ever be a starting fantasy player in 16-team mixed leagues. Putting him on this list would have been pointless given that opinion. I don't think I'd even rank him in the 50's if the list went that long.
Nope. But since he's not likely to see time at shortstop anytime soon, it can't be factored heavily into his value right now.
This one, on the other hand, was just forgetfulness on my part. Peterson has officially moved off the position (to 3B), but I am a fan of his bat, so the value remains.
There's no perfect solution for a position like this with so many names that are likely to move off it either sooner or later. I own Seager on a few teams and consider him to be a third baseman for these purposes, so he'll be ranked next week on this list. You could certainly make the argument that it's arbitrary, and you'd be correct--but the overall valuing remains the same.
Thanks! It absolutely will be. It's one of my favorite features to be a part of.
It's not an oversight, he's just not a very interesting fantasy outfielder. He doesn't have much power or speed and is more of an OBP guy than an AVG guy. I was considering him for my eighth round pick, but he was taken one spot before me.
Well, I had three potential comments to leave here in response to this, but didn't want to choose between them. So here they all are (you can choose your favorite):
1) I think that's pretty crappy of Retro Stathead's wife to blame him for that rule. Must be the sign of a bad relationship.
2) Not to brag or anything, but I'm pretty sure I could grasp the concept of a minimum games requirement when I was seven years old.
3) If the Baseball Taliban has the ability to time travel, count me in.
I'll believe it when I see it. Cozart in the two-hole is a disaster that they don't need to repeat. Think Votto in the two-hole is more likely to happen.
Zobrist and Simmons are the two guys for me. Zobrist is a pretty clear four-star option in points leagues for me and Simmons becomes a straddler between three and four star because of his insanely low strikeout rate. Marco Scutaro as well, but even he isn't a great option in points leagues anymore.
For me, no. Franklin is near Miller's equal from an offensive standpoint, but on the defensive side of things, it's not particularly close. He's a second baseman and I expect him to be traded soon.
Yep. It's high potential and risk, which is what you should be aiming for in leagues with deep farm teams. I'd roster him over most of the players on the back half of the list.
Probably not. He might have made the list if it went to 60, but maybe he hits for a little average and not much else? That's not very exciting.
Eligibility from catcher to any other position is a much more significant drop than any other diamond move. He'll lose a touch of value, but 3B isn't exactly a bastion of fantasy goodness right now either.
He's not a burner, so he may decline faster than people think as he gets less agile. I think he's under 20 steals within the next 2-3 seasons.
In an AL-only format, sure. I'd be relatively surprised if he was ever a positive contributor in mixed leagues.
I agree. Abreu was just behind Ventura on my list when I picked in the second round and was surprised to see him still on the board when it came back around to me in the third. And yes, he'd be #1 on my list if we were just talking 2014 value only.
We will be revisiting these tiers in mid-March, but the movement at that point should all be in the one and two-star tiers.
Don't sleep on Pederson. Think he's a guy who could surprise some people when it comes to fantasy value. I think this was a good spot for him and was on my short list at that point (though behind Abreu).
I don't know, guys. I think I'd probably go Neil Walker instead.
All of our 2014 rankings take into account opinions from the entire staff, but ultimately the final call is with the person whose name is on the list. And I really like it that way. The rankings should be a compromise between people who all have very informed and valid opinions. The projections in the PFM are not fantasy team based, they are PECOTA based, so how Mauricio or I feel about Brandon Belt won't get incorporated anywhere there.
If you're looking for more extensive talk about some of these players, we've been covering these lists on our podcasts. Hope that helps.
The top-20 of this list is very strong and deep. I like Adams a lot, but a higher spot just isn't warranted for him just yet. Especially because he could find himself on the outside looking in at the Cardinals' lineup if he struggles out of the gate. In this case, their organizational depth works against his individual value. He's a hitter though.
If he currently projected as a 25+ homer guy, you'd be right, but if he's just a 15-20 homer guy, that's just not enough upside to warrant being further up the list. That said, I like Guzman--he's just more solid at ceiling than great.
You absolutely could make a case for it, based on upside/speed. Personally, I'd take the safety of Odor unless it's a particularly shallow league. Then it may be worth taking the shot.
Well, in lieu of an 11th round, how about a top-40 list of top future draftees and international players for fantasy purposes? I only ask because that's going to be up within the next week or two.
The remainder of the draft should get posted next week.
Nope, only players in an MLB organization were allowed in the draft pool.
Thanks! That's greatly appreciated.
I was a little surprised as well, but rest assured he didn't last very long into Round 3..
Yes, if this were for OBP-specific leagues, he would have been up there, but I've lost all faith in Iannetta being even a short-term option. I originally had him at 47 on an earlier draft of this list, but there was no good reason to include him and not include John Buck--and at that point I'd prefer a guy who potentially won't hurt me like a Hanigan or Brantly.
Similar thoughts on Ohlman to Phegley. I think he's a backup who can swat a few homers and not much else. He was another late cut (though I'd take Phegley over him). He's not a danger to Wieters' playing time and doesn't have the long-term upside of Cisco.
Thanks! The durability is a concern and even if they were both guaranteed to be fully healthy, I'd still take Lucroy over him. I believe in the bat, but it's not elite.
I think Phegley is a backup and his performance at Triple-A this past year was a fluke. Outside of extremely deep leagues, I'm not interested. That said, he was one of the last two cuts from this list. Even the OK power that he has is going to be off-set by a terrible batting average--and that's not going to cut it in one-catcher leagues.
It warms my heart to see Gary Brown as the deep sleeper here. On the other hand, any extended thought about Gary Brown makes me sad.
Just to clarify, since the PFM is not final yet for 2014, these are the 2013 numbers for reference. So yes, Navarro should be expected to receive more than 266 PA in 2014.
I've now chimed in. Case closed. Lawyered.
His .809 OPS in the second half of 2012 was very good, but not good enough to qualify him for this exercise.
I meant 7th or 8th out of Padres prospects, though he probably falls behind that general range overall among catching prospects for fantasy purposes (depending on the size of your league).
As hilarious as Rosario in a corner outfield spot would be in Coors Field, he's far more likely to move to a corner infield spot instead. The more interesting question is could he be playable at third if given enough reps?
Everyone loves haikus
Just be glad I'm too lazy
To write a sonnet
Just because he's lame
Doesn't mean that I am lame
I'm, in fact, not lame.
They're not prep players, but my point wasn't that they were, it was that there was no one from the HS ranks who had greater upside (which is uncommon).
Bryant isn't a once in ten or twenty years kind of bat, despite how he looks compared to the rest of this class. I'd say he's the best college bat since Anthony Rendon. Same with Gray--it's only been two years since Gerrit Cole went number one overall.
I'd have Odor ranked pretty closely to Appel.
I like Williams a lot--he's a borderline top 100 guy for me. Nay, not so much. The odds of him both hitting and sticking at 3B are not good.
If I had to put money on it, I'd say yes. Thankfully, I'm not putting money on it.
Ervin was the last player cut for this list. I like him enough as a prospect, but my strategy is to shoot for bigger upside players and lottery tickets in the 30-50 range. That means mostly pitchers with a chance to jump and premium J2 hitters. Ervin's omission could make me look stupid, but it's not a pick that I would make in that range.
It's a good thought to move up, but not at the expense of Adams.
They're close. I think Crawford is the better real life player (and safer pick), but Anderson has the most substantial fantasy upside.
I addressed Gonzalez above, but for the other guys, I'm releasing a top 30 fantasy prospects list of solely players not yet in U.S. professional baseball. That includes future draft picks, and international players, and should get released in the next two weeks.
I'll be honest, Gonzalez was an oversight as I seem to have a serious blind spot for him. That said, I'm very bearish on him, and would have ranked him in the 30's on this list based on his risk factors and the likelihood he ends up in the bullpen.
I don't think he has the power to be Jay Bruce or the speed to be a difference maker there. I like him as a good all-around contributor, but not a fantasy star.
Those players will all be ranked in the Top 100 Fantasy Prospects list coming out next month, but Polanco would be at least in the mix for #1 (but probably behind Bryant) and the rest of the guys would settle in the top of the second tier. As far as Pineda, the shoulder stuff scares me enough that unless he were more or less handed to me on a silver platter, I'll let him be someone else's problem.
If you anticipate having salary cap issues, then yes it would. Much moreso for Tanaka though, as Abreu's salary is much less prohibitive. I'd take both Gray and Appel over Tanaka in that case.
I'm happy to answer them as one-offs, but it's really tough to know who's owned and who's not. Even just in an assumed 16-team league (like what is used for this exercise), there's a huge difference if you have a 15-man minor league roster versus a 25-man.
I'd put Mejia and Thorpe towards the middle of the Shipley tier and Raimel Tapia in the Dominic Smith/Tim Anderson range. Reyes and Tirado would be lower, than Mejia/Thorpe, but likely still in that tier.
On the upside alone, I'd take him over most of those guys. He's behind Frazier and Stewart for me, but in the Harvey/Smith range. I could certainly see the case for taking him over either of them, and I probably would myself.
What Joe said. He's a smart dude.
My plan is that there will be (and more than we've had in recent memory)--details around that are being worked out as we speak. Personally, I'll be writing about Scoresheet from time-to-time throughout the season as I will chronicle my (mis)adventures in the format.
That comment was not referring to his fantasy usefulness--Cecchini certainly can be plenty useful--it was refering to his lack of impact. I like him to be a solid all-around contributor, but don't see him as a fantasy star.
Do not fear. There's a list coming within the next two weeks or so that will cover this exact topic. Likely the week of 1/6.
There's really not a huge difference, but strikeouts are generally a little more important for fantasy upside. Mostly because they're more slightly predictable than ratios or wins. And Giolito has the type of raw stuff that strikeout titles are made of. Though to be fair, he also would have been my answer if the question was addressing real upside.
No pitcher in the minors has the fantasy upside of Lucas Giolito. It's intense.
Early January. I've already started working on it.
He likely would have ended up playing every day, but now it's even more of a sure thing. Hence the arrow up.
No love for Gerardo Parra?
Nope - that's the seven right there.
As of right now, assuming Morrison gets moved and no one else is signed, I would have to think he'd be the top option to hit directly behind Stanton.
The Rockies' outfield defense would be atrocious if they put CarGo in center and Parker in a corner--especially given the size of their outfield.
I could see him elbowing his way to the front of the post-game spread line, but not the starting lineup. The Indians have better options as the short-end of a platoon.
I will echo the thanks for Scott. Glad to hear you're enjoying the series!
I'm going to be a little more pessimistic here. The long ball is going to be an issue and that strand rate won't hold up over a longer sample. I also really do not like his chances of getting to 200 innings. That said, if he got 200 innings, I'd predict this line:
3.80 ERA, 1.26 WHIP, 194 strikeouts
I'm not super high on him, but he could be a deep league sleeper if he still looks like the #5 starter in mid-March. In the end, he's likely a bullpen arm, but Cleveland doesn't have that much depth in the rotation with Kazmir and Jimenez all but gone. It's good that his velocity came back and that he gets ground balls, but he was very good in a limited bullpen role in 2014 and he can build on that.
I don't expect him to match either the average or the runs scored from 2013 going forward. Projecting Carpenter for anything more than a .300 average and 100 runs scored (still fantastic numbers) is likely to be a losing proposition, and when you skim that excess off the top, you get a very good fantasy second baseman, but not someone who is quite in that class. And in dynasty leagues, he gets a slight move down because of the likelihood he moves out on the defensive spectrum this year or next and loses that eligibility.
There is absolutely a good case for Kipnis over Pedroia in dynasty leagues, though I was just talking about for 2014 (and as of right now, Pedroia will be my #2 second baseman in redraft formats). Carpenter is in that next tier down from Pedroia and Kipnis for me, both in redraft and dynasty leagues.
His arm is strong, but Castellanos never projected as anything more than an average defensive third baseman. And that's in a best case scenario. The most likely outcome is that he's a fringy defender at the hot corner, but his bat makes it worth keeping him there.
Or the magical powers of a hit tool.
To jump into this thread, that's going to be my responsibility here. If a player would be significantly higher or lower on a fantasy list, I'm going to mention that and speak to why. We are also going to be running a fantasy-specific Top 100 list again this year, which should help hammer all of that home.
But he didn't log enough innings to qualify. If you lower the threshhold to 50 innings pitched, you get three new names in the under 2.75 group: Jose Fernandez, Felix Hernandez and Tanner Roark. One of those things is not like the other..
Dustin Garneau, Justin Morneau's evil twin.
Yes, Cashner has better stuff than Liriano. Frankie has the slider, but Cashner's Brooks Baseball page is legally required to be classified as pornography.
I actually do like Cueto to bounce back a little, but I don't like his chances of ever being a top-10 fantasy starter again. The combination of a low strikeout rate (for a high-end fantasy starter) and the injury history will make it very hard for him.
We're just a few weeks away from rolling out our 2013 final valuations, but in the meantime I used the ESPN Player Rater as the ends to a means.
That would be correct -- 5x5 rotisserie value.
No, it's not clear--even just in the last series they split the two starts against Kershaw. Lester isn't a guy with huge platoon splits, so the L/R matchup matters a little less with him than other southpaws. And on top of that, Wainwright is a big ground ball pitcher, so the outfield defense is also slightly less important with him on the mound. Think Matheny goes with the guy who "got him there" in Game One, but it's certainly not a slam dunk.
The other thing which factors into Adams' value is whether or not the Cardinals think Taveras can fake it in CF for a year or two. If that is the case, they could either jettison or demote Jon Jay (to 4th OF) and make room for both Taveras and Adams if they do let Beltran walk. Either way, it would be less competition for the big man.
It's about the service time. The Astros aren't going anywhere in 2014, and it would be short-sighted to start him in the majors and potentially lose a year of free agency. I just don't see it happening, despite the great performance.
If he can continue to end the season on a high note, I think he will be in the mix next year.
I wasn't talking about career numbers, just 2013 minor league numbers.
Also, as a teaser, Mike and I are running an all September call ups version of the FA Watch tomorrow. So that should add to the content we already have up here.
I'm with Cole on this one. They're pretty similar from a roto perspective, but in a points league, I'd want Wong given his penchant for contact.
I think you'll be fine, though just keep an eye on his usage the first couple of days back. Kendrick is a consistently underrated option in deeper leagues.
He's still with monitoring long-term, but I'm not sure how many more cracks in a rotation he gets given his injury history.
If I thought he was gone for good, he wouldn't have made the list at all. Odds are just lower now.
There's no such thing as a sample size too small to comment on. I figured that a four week stretch for a part-time player was understood to be SSS, but worth pointing out anyway, given how incredible his performance was during the first three months of season (which would still be SSS in the grand scheme of things).
I believe that if he doesn't have any more setbacks, he'll return as a starter. If he gets pushed back at all, the odds of him contributing in relief goes up, and then yes, I would take Halladay over him in that case.
If you're looking at a potential high-ceiling guy who probably won't get called up, but could be valuable if he is, Gregory Polanco of the Pirates may be worth a shot. If you want someone with a higher probability, but not a ton of upside, Jimmy Nelson of the Brewers could get a few September starts with the big club like Wily Peralta did last season.
I like that move. A-Rod is a pretty good own going forward and should be picked up in medium and deep mixed leagues.
Since he's owned in over 28 percent of leagues, he does not qualify for the list. However, he does make for a very good stash if he's available.
No, but I'm getting a little concerned about how rusty he looks from reports I've seen. Plus, with Cincy in the driver's seat for a postseason birth, they ease him back into playing time initially. But more so I'm not as confident that he'll return to form this season, or at least not the kind of form that would be worth owning in anything but deep mixed leagues.
Absolutely, I just don't think he'll be particularly interesting outside of AL-only formats.
Yes, it was written before the blow up last night, but it doesn't change much in my opinion. One outing is just one outing. If he gives up a couple of runs again in the next week, then it may be time to start seriously looking at other options.
It's certainly a concern, but I believe that if he hits, thighs will work themselves out.
I guess, but I'm not a big fan of either. If you're looking for a short-term pick up in deep leagues, maybe Derek Norris is out there while Jaso is sidelined.
Think he's all gone in NL-only formats and not worth owning long-term in mixed leagues. If you want to chase his hot streak and pick him up in the short-term, that's fine but he's going to hit a wall once pitchers figure him out.
Correct, I was talking NL-only. I would never forget about Bogaerts..
I think the odds are pretty low. Castellanos is better than Garcia at what Garcia does best (hit LHP).
He qualifies but doesn't make it. The issue with Salazar is that the further we get into the season, the more likely it is that we see him get shut down. He has a checkered injury history, and think the Indians may want to get him through the season in one piece. After his next start, he will have thrown more innings than in any season since 2009.
The difference between Springer and Bogaerts here is that the Red Sox are contending and the Astros have no real reason to start Springer's clock and make a spot for him. Bogaerts' scenario is more like Manny Machado's from last year -- a guy who doesn't need to be promoted, but the team feels that he holds their best chance of getting to the post-season.
And no, there's really no gain for the team to do so during the season. There's a hurdle of value that a team would have to feel was worth jumping over in order to get said player a 40-man spot.
I think he'll provide decent NL-only value even if he never makes it into the rotation. He has the skills to put up similar numbers to what Trevor Rosenthal is cranking out.
He was close to making it this week, but I just don't think his odds of having an every day role is all that good even if he gets called up.
Players are eligible for the list until they reach their ownership requirements and final fantasy destination. Gray's final destination is in the rotation, so he will still qualify until he makes it there.
I'm still very concerned about Carpenter's ability to both come back and hold up over the course of the year. He's in the honorable mention because he needs to be monitored, but I'm just not optimistic -- especially with Carlos Martinez willing and able to pitch in.
Assuming you're talking about next week, I probably wouldn't -- both Liriano and Parker have nice matchups.
Interesting idea. They could do it Hunger Games style, but instead of the end prize being food* it could be extra money for their organiation's draft budget or something.
*I never saw/read the Hunger Games, so if you don't actually win food in the competition, please ignore my ignorance.
Thanks! The specter of the unexpected bunt attempt in Target Practice may have more natural anticipation than anything else in this event.
How about a Puig vs Machado undercard?
Nope, not a waste of space. Though I don't expect him to get holds in that bullpen. He can provide value with strikeouts, ratios and the occasional win though.
Not yet. He's repeating the level and has defensive question marks. He's almost certainly a top 100 guy for fantasy purposes now, but I'm not jumping in head first on him. I need to see more before making him a top 50 guy.
Since when is a 3.36 ERA and 4.0 K-BB rate only OK? He improved his stock greatly last season, so the 2012 pre-season ranking isn't particularly important anymore.
Sveum has publicly talked about Parker getting a shot. Strop also has 16 walks in 26 innings and after suffering through Marmol, I would think they might prefer to go with the guy who has better control.
If he throws 90 innings the rest of the season, I could see a 3.60 ERA, 1.23 WHIP and 70 strikeouts. He probably won't win too many games in Seattle, but could get to five with a little support.
Pretty close to zero at this point. It's all but confirmed.
I don't disagree with that premise, but this list is designed for roto formats.
These are for rotisserie leagues, and yes it absolutely matters in Hamilton's case. He likely drops at least 15 spots if you're talking about a category H2H league, but those steals are gold in roto.
I agree with this comment. He's someone who will likely always be more valuable for the Sox than for his fantasy teams.
No, it's a reasonable learning curve--but he was borderline top-50 guy last year, so being off this list isn't a huge knock on him. Still like his potential long-term.
That was an omission on my part--not sure how he fell off my spreadsheet while I was making updates. He should be #22 right between d'Arnaud and Fried, with a $25-30 potential earnings and high risk.
He was certainly in the mix for the next group of 15-20 players. He's taken a step forward this year.
The developmental process is not a straight line. Hamilton has the ability to get on base and win a category almost single-handedly. There's incredible value in that.
His absence from this list has absolutely nothing to do with the Biogenesis link. He's back on the radar, but I am not sold on either his hit tool or his power. There's no shame in ranking behind the outfielders towards the bottom of this list, and he would have made a top-75.
He's been in the lineup pretty consistently, so I can't imagine it's anything major. He may just be getting back into baseball shape after an extended absence from games.
I just don't see a great reason to rush him in Houston. He may very well get the call, which is why he's a recurring name on The Stash List, but I think the odds of him finishing the season with Triple-A is higher at this point.
Great prospect, and he would have made the list had it gone to 60, but he's just so far away and his fantasy upside is still up in the air. He has the potential to be a fast riser and a special player, but he may be a more valuable real-life guy than fantasy guy
They're both showing off the swing and miss in their game a plenty, but for fantasy, you can't ignore the upside, even if the risk is extreme. Like I say with these extreme risk guys, they're worth owning until they're not, and these two are definitely worth owning.
As far as Liriano, I'll be honest--I wanted to put him much higher on the pre-season list, but it was a collaboration. This is a better reflection of where I personally see his value sitting.
I think it's pretty unlikely. He'll make this list at some point in July, but I still think he's third in line for a call-up this season (behind Erasmo and Hultzen). He's still just 20 years old, and I don't think the Mariners rush him. Plus, both Ramirez and Hultzen are on the 40-man roster, and Walker is not. That could make a difference as well.
It does, but it's not like the rest of their starters are bastions of health either. As far as Parker, he's an interesting pickup in very deep leagues as we get closer, but if I had to grab someone now, it would still be James Russell. I know he's a lefty and there are reports that they don't want to use him in that role, but he's the best non-Gregg pitcher they have in that pen.
I should be able to do that. So far this season, I've had 351 strikeouts to 150 walks, for a 2.34 K/BB.
Yeah, I'd make that move. Hellweg is certainly interesting, but Eovaldi is a better bet to stick in the rotation with only slightly less upside.
I like that move. And the park should be less of an issue for him, as long as he can continue to keep the ball on the ground. Maxwell is who he is at this point, and while there's value there, the upside is feint.
He has the talent to be on the list, but I just don't see a role for him in Boston this year which would net him fantasy value. Maybe if he puts together a string of nice starts at Triple-A, but as of now, he's only gone more than five innings twice on the year and is walking more than a batter every other inning.
Once Erasmo gets called up, I'd take him over Kluber. As far as Cobb goes, that all depends on his timetable and what your DL situation is like. When Erasmo is up, he becomes a must start at home and I like his chances of being a good option on the road as well. Tough to start him over Parker or Liriano the way they are going though.
It would be a nice story, but I want no part of Oswalt in Coors Field for fantasy purposes.
Yes, his ownership is now over 25%, which is the cutoff for injured players to qualify for the list.
Sure, his Triple-A stats are better, but I'll take the guy with the better skill set, pedigree and eligibility any day of the week. A decent second baseman is incredibly value because of the void in the middle infield position. Ackley also has more ways to accrue value because he's capable of stealing a few bases as well. I still believe that Ackley will be a good major leaguer and I like his chances to be back up soon.
Yea, I'm just not very optimistic about Chisenhall's fantasy value the rest of the way. Even if they give him another shot (which it appears they're not so keen on doing), I don't think it's likely that he musters up much mixed league fantasy value.
Ackley has actually played four of those six games in CF for Tacoma, so it's certainly possible that they think he can play there in a pinch. And that's really all that Saunders is doing anyway, as the defensive metrics aren't kind to him in center.
FWIW, I'd go Moreland over everyone else and agree with Mike's order (except I'd have Duda slightly over Quentin).
Paulino just started his rehab assignment and should be back in just under a month, barring any setbacks. Whether he gets a rotation spot is yet to be seen. As far as Luebke, there are reports circulating that he may not pitch at all in 2013--which is very discouraging considering he should have been on track to return around the same time as Brandon Beachy. Just goes to show (with him and Ryan Madson) that Tommy John surgery, while mostly predictable, is still not an exact science.
Too much competition in Boston for a rotation opening. And I still think Webster has the inside track for now.
It could be either, but an injury is the more likely scenario. Unless one of them goes completely in the tank, I don't think Oakland will rush to move one of their current guys out.
What else would you expect them to say? From their perspective, it's the perfect answer to that question since it prevents any follow ups they don't want to answer.
Hultzen is throwing, but still has yet to appear in a game since being sidelined with his rotator cuff strain. I'll need to see him back in action before thinking about including him on the list because (repeat after me) shoulder injuries are scary. The absolute best case scenario for Hultzen would seem to be a major league debut in the second half of July, but even that is not a likely outcome.
Castellanos was a late cut this week, and there are a few reasons for that:
1) I think Andy Dirks is good enough to hold him off.
2) I don't trust Jim Leyland to deploy him properly even if he gets the call.
3) He just might not be all that fantasy relevant at first, even if he comes up. He'll be very AVG dependent, as the power may not be there right away and he doesn't steal bases. Players like that have less margin for error in fantasy.
He's not flashy and he's probably not as exciting as his numbers--but I could see a scenario where he gets 8-10 starts later on this year given any injuries on the Mets' staff.
This was a major league exercise, so the fact that all five are American League starters is just coincidence. No one in the National League qualifies for Holy Trinity status thus far in the season. Adam Wainwright, Stephen Strasburg and Homer Bailey were close, but just missed.
I'd feel pretty comfortable throwing him out there each time, except in extreme match-ups or in very shallow leagues.
When you expand the parameters slightly, you get a mostly well-known names like Adam Wainwright, David Price and Stephen Strasburg. But you also get Homer Bailey (who missed just slightly on the GB rate) and Roberto Hernandez (who missed by one walk).
I'm going to have to respectfully disagree with Paul on this one. Phegley may be more likely to receive playing time in the near-term, but that's just because Tyler Flowers is awful. He'd have to have some sort of incredible fluky run to be worth owning in anything but AL-only leagues.
That really depends a lot on how Zunino looks when he gets here. Arencibia has been a top-10 catcher, as the power is very helpful at such a shallow position. If he's continuing to hit for the same power, I'd probably stick with JP, unless you need to take some chances and want to try to catch lightning in a bottle.
He's absolutely worth a stash in deeper leagues, I just wonder how much value he'll have in medium-sized mixed leagues. He wasn't running very much before the injury and players don't tend to get more aggressive after hurting their hamstring. If he's not stealing many bases, his value becomes limited.
While I'm more concerned about Lewis than I was last week, I'm certainly not taking Big Z over him. I am just not confident about his ability to perform at the major league level. In NL-only leagues, sure he's a worthy stash, but I'm not ready to go higher than that.
I know I don't say it enough, but I love you all. Consider this comment manually favorited.
Thanks! He's more the first type than the other two, but there's more to it than that. He has a very torque-heavy swing, which gives him more swing and miss while he's in the early stages of development. But Zach could speak to that better than I can, having seen it in action.
Here's a fun stat for the pitchfork holders: If the season ended today, E-Jax's 2013 xFIP (3.66) would be the lowest of his entire career.
Mid-June has been the estimate I've seen, but as always, it's just an estimate.
I still like him a lot long-term, but I doubt he sees much major league time this year as he's recovering from Tommy John -- and the time he does see will likely be in a non-closer bullpen role. He will be a guy to watch out for in 2014 though, especially if the Cubs do give him another shot to be a starter.
Garcia is much more of a wildcard, and is very likely to end up in the bullpen (even with the Nationals' desire to stretch him out). He's also already 27 and has a history of arm injuries, which puts him in the risky category. Karns is the better fantasy prospect long-term (by a good bit) and in the short-term, given the fact that Garcia still hasn't pitched in a game this season.
Sadly, not for fantasy. Which is why I think they are idle threats.
Maybe this is my fault for not explaining this. The AL/NL only guys are not the next guys on the list after the Honorable Mention players--they're just deeper names who may actually be unowned in those formats. I'm assuming Hudson is owned in NL-only formats. I'd prefer him to Baker, but they're not light years apart. Plus, where's Hudson going to slide into the Arizona rotation?
Absolutely - just like Cingrani was eligible for this week's list.
I'm certainly paying close attention to his progress, but shoulder injuries are very unnerving--which is the same reason Danny Hultzen hasn't returned to the list since his shoulder injury. I just like to see more from those guys than any other rehabbing player. If all does go according to plan, he'll certainly be on this list, and in relatively short order.
Thanks, Ray. I agree with you, but the Nats have to be careful given Rendon's history of ankle injuries. That said, as a short term fix, it's potentially very exciting for fantasy purposes. If Rendon plays a second straight game at 2B today, which he hasn't done all year, I'm going to start sounding the alarm bells.
Personally, I would have liked to see Martinez get the shot here, but the Cardinals don't appear interested in jerking their prospects back and forth between the bullpen and rotation. Wacha may not have the upside of Martinez, but should be a solid mid-rotation arm and I'm not super concerned about a lack of K's given that Triple-A was an aggressive assignment in the first place.
Ramirez has started a throwing program and could be looking at rehab assignment in the next week or two if he progresses. It's a big if, but it was positive enough news to leave him on the list for another week.
As far as Cingrani vs Leake, you kind of answered your own question. The Reds seem happy with Leake as a back-end guy, which makes sense, but if he struggles, I don't think they'll hesitate to replace him with someone who could be more. And while Cingrani won't be an ace, he should still put up nice numbers until the league figures him out. But even when the league does figure him out, he's still likely to be more productive than Leake--and every win matters for the Reds.
Once he actually starts a rehab assignment, he'll start moving up this list. Quickly.
Yes, and he was the last cut for Honorable Mention. But just like Danny Hultzen and John Danks, pitchers' shoulders are a very different animal than any other type of injury. Need to see more first.
Very well. I agree with everything you said!
I think he'll be playing nearly every day once he gets his feet back underneath him. He's the best defensive CF they have on the roster, and the coaching staff in Arizona LOVES him. Plus, with a .285 OBP, Pollock isn't making the greatest case to stick around once Eaton returns.
I'm not touching John Danks in anything short of an AL-only format, and even there, I'd be very hesitant. I just don't think this is going to end well for him or his fantasy owners.
Still unknown at this point, but any time your dealing with a shoulder attached to a top prospect, it's unlikely to be a short resolution.
Yea, it's starting to remind me of the Yankees' silence on Jose Campos last year. I would not be surprised if we didn't see him all year, but it's still a little too early to give up on him entirely.
In a shallower league, where you could really use an additional start this week, I don't have a problem with that. Like Cash better for the rest of the year, but he's still a high injury risk and Straily has been better than his stats let on.
I'll just reply to both Grandal comments here. When I started the list, I included a lot of groups, but not suspended players -- though looking back, there's really no good reason for that. If I were to rank Grandal on this list, I'd have him one spot ahead of Zunino. Though, in any sort of two-catcher format, he should be much higher (and potentially in the top-5). I expect him to hit well upon his return, and I think a .270 average with 10-12 HR the rest of the way is possible.
So there's no confusion about this going forward, I'm going to start incorporating suspended players into this list.
Thanks! Unsolicited compliments are always welcome.
Yes, he would be eligible -- in fact, he was one of my last cuts in the first version. But the fact that the Rockies did not recall him with Helton out spoke volumes about what his role will be on this team going forward. I actually just dropped him in a 20-team league I was hanging onto him in last week.
Yes, but I think it's unlikely unless the Mariners need a starter in June/July and both Hultzen and Ramirez are still sidelined. He's got a ton of potential, but he's just so young and not quite ready for the show yet.
Yes, just because I think Paulino is more likely to finish this season in the bullpen than Duffy is. I'm not super optimistic about either, though.
Thanks! The pitchers who scare me the most when returning from Tommy John surgery are the ones who had below average command prior to going under the knife (since command is often the last thing to come back). And Duffy falls into that category. I still think he could have a nice career long-term, but I'm not optimistic about his second half performance, even if he does stake claim to a rotation spot in KC.
Not yet. Admittedly, I've never been a huge believer in Hudson. I would rather have Luebke than him and he's in the bottom fifth of the list. Also, he gets docked a little for the same reason Skaggs does, as it's hard to see who gets bumped from the rotation in Arizona when he's ready to return.
The biggest thing Wacha has going for him at the moment is that Carlos Martinez was brought up to pitch in relief. He hasn't been all that great in Triple-A, but if anything were to happen to Jaime Garcia or Jake Westbrook, it would likely be between him and Joe Kelly for that spot. If he starts pitching better in Triple-A, he'll likely move onto this list later this month.
Thanks! I'd be really tempted to take Liriano over Halladay at this point, especially because we're not sure how long he'll be out for. I'd still rather have Beckett and Parker, as I do think they'll both turn it around before long and be fine (at least for them). Liriano has upside, and he's in a great situation, but he's also still Francisco Liriano.
Understood, but streaming in only formats is a like playing Russian Roulette with multiple bullets. It's really aimed at your 12-16 team mixed leagues.
Yep, he's 26% owned, so he's barely above the threshold. He's definitely a worthwhile stash in a 14-teamer, but he comes with a good amount of risk. I'd have him just behind Liriano as far as value for the rest of the season (mostly because he's a greater risk for re-injury).
No cause for concern from a fantasy perspective. Even smart kids do dumb things sometimes.
They graduated because they are back in their full roles. Marcum and Lilly are off the DL and in the rotation, Arenado is the starting 3B in Colorado and Valverde is closing in Detroit. Once players are in their full roles, they no longer qualify for the list regardless of ownership.
He's at over 28% right now. Wouldn't be surprised if he qualified at some point over the next few weeks though.
I don't have many. It's been a long time since he got hurt and shoulder troubles are very tricky. Even if he can actually come back by some point in July, who knows which version of Pineda we'll actually see. Hopefully we'll have a better idea as we see him ramp up over the next few months.
Just to be clear, I was never comparing their control or ability to play nice with others, just simply their overall values and current places in their respective depth charts.
I'm not optimistic about it. I think it's probably more likely that they'd give Cuddyer some time at 1B and recall Tyler Colvin. Or they could give Eric Young more playing time. Or they could just bypass them all and call up Nolan Arenado. It's really unclear what the Rockies would do in that case, but I wouldn't be surprised at any of those outcomes.
You can't just cherry pick his last two starts and say his first two are less important. He was skipped straight over Triple-A because of a need and he's got a 7.45 ERA which is as well-supported by his peripherals as a 7.45 ERA gets. It's not a knock on him long-term, he just may not be ready to seize a rotation spot for good yet.
Exactly. Plus, Feliz likely won't be back until September, so he's still well behind the other TJ recoverees on this list.
The only problem with comparing Phelps to Smyly/Straily is that he's just not as talented as them, and he's not in a great situation as a guy who can struggle to get lefties out in a park which greatly helps lefties. Green is OK, but he's a much better idea in AL-only leagues. At best, he's essentially Daniel Murphy but with less batting average and fewer counting stats. And I'm talking about career Daniel Murphy, not the 2013 version.
Thanks! If those are the guys you'd drop for Myers, I'd stand pat. I don't think Myers will be an upgrade over Aoki for overall value when he comes up (though he will be for power). Also, if you're thinking about punting saves (though I'm not sure why you would if you have two closers), trade them, don't drop them.
I still do, but I freely admit that I can easily be sucked back in with Liriano. How many other guys can you stash on your bench who struck out more than a batter per inning last year and are moving to a much more favorable situation? It worked for A.J. Burnett, so why can't it potentially work for Liriano?
Thanks guys - appreciate the feedback.
I agree with that, but I'd argue that Mujica has about as long of a leash right now as Boggs did coming into the season -- and has historically performed similarly to Boggs. I don't think it would take much for Rosenthal to move into the role if he puts together a nice string of appearances like the one on Saturday. It only took Boggs three appearances (with none back-to-back), to lose the gig.
Agreed - Yelich has only played in three games so far this year, and even if he was fully healthy to start the year and hitting well, the All-Star Break seemed like the most reasonable time to see him anyway. He should start making appearances on this list soon, though.
Thanks. And yes, this is something that I plan to revisit sporadically during the season both on the positive and negative sides.
For what it's worth, this is what Juan C. Rodriguez (the Marlins beat writer) said on Twitter earlier today:
#Marlins will limit Jose Fernandez to 150-170 innings. [Larry] Beinfest expects him to log them all in majors.
As far as what it means for Turner, I don't think it means anything. If the Marlins are building towards their rotation of the future, that includes both Fernandez and Turner. When he shows he's ready, he'll be back - and I still like him long-term.
In an NL-only keeper, I'd drop either Fiers or Leake for Fernandez - with a reasonable bid (assuming your level of bid affects his keeper value in the future). I think he could be a nice keeper in the $8-10 range in an NL-only for 2014, so bid accordingly.
Just for kicks, I figure I'd throw out my Razzball Experts league roster, since Paul alluded to the fact that I participated as well. And yes, the draft was a few hours before Hanley was injured..
C - Joe Mauer (7)
1B - Nick Swisher (16)
2B - Howard Kendrick (12)
SS - Hanley Ramirez (2)
3B - Miguel Cabrera (1)
CI - Aramis Ramirez (6)
MI - Andrelton Simmons (20)
OF - Jason Heyward (3)
OF - Melky Cabrera (8)
OF - Carlos Beltran (9)
OF - Carl Crawford (11)
OF - Jayson Werth (18)
DH - Jason Kubel (21)
P - Adam Wainwright (4)
P - Yu Darvish (5)
P - Josh Johnson (13)
P - Homer Bailey (17)
P - Trevor Cahill (19)
P - Jaime Garcia (22)
P - Ernesto Frieri (15)
P - Steve Cishek (14)
P - Fernando Rodney (10)
BN - Phil Hughes (23)
BN - Ricky Romero (24)
BN - Adam Lind (25)
And since the draft ended, I've dropped Ricky Romero for Trevor Rosenthal.
Everyone seemed to avoid catchers and closers like the plague, so I decided to start jumping in a little earlier than I usually do. The Hanley pick is a bummer, but I'm very happy with my outfield and pitching staff. Curious to see how this all shakes out.
With young pitchers, sometimes the skills improve to reduce the amount of regression coming. Similar to what Jarrod Parker did between his first half and his second half. And Tillman has some of those skills. Whether he takes that step forward is yet to be seen, but it's not just a given that he'll just give it all back.
I agree that this would be a nice addition, so I'll remedy that here in the comments. Of the players in the list above, Keppinger, Dirks and Garcia would be very nice points league options. Same with Josh Donaldson, if he can keep his strikeout rate below 20% like he did for the last two months of the 2012 season.
Another guy I'd keep an eye on in points leagues in Yasmani Grandal. He'll miss 50 games due to his suspension, but he posted a nearly 14% walk rate and a 17% strikeout rate in his 60 games last season. If you can stash him, he could pretty easily be a top-10 catcher in points leagues once he returns.
Sure, he has a little upside, but I'd rather have everyone in that bottom tier over him. His best case scenario looks pretty much in line with a lot of the One Star player projections.
I'd still keep him, if you'd only gain back your 4th rounder in a league where 10 players are kept. He's a top-140 guy for me, and I'm assuming that some teams will have those Round 1-3 picks to use.
Me too - he was the most expensive player I bought in one of my jellybean home leagues over the weekend. I'd just slash that projection by a third and hope for the best. Think .275-16-18 with 55 runs and 60 RBI. Still good, but just not what we paid for. Hanley plus a replacement level player can still get you 20-20 for 2013, so no one's screwed yet.
Given the few extra dollars, I'd rather have Scutaro. Carpenter doesn't have huge upside and I'd prefer the safety that Scutaro brings. Plus, he should be in a more advantageous lineup spot for counting stats than Carpenter.
Don't remind me. Ugh..
I think in an NL-only, that price is probably right about where I'd feel comfortable going. He doesn't do anything particularly well, but he should be able to return some profit at that price if he can keep his head above water on defense. Of course, that's still a question that's yet to be answered.
Thanks - and here's my reasoning for each:
I like Moustakas long-term, and I do think he has more power potential than Lawrie, but he also owns a 145 ISO in the majors versus 168 for Lawrie, so he's not showing it yet. Add 20 steal potential and a career batting average that's 30 points higher at this point, and I think you get a pretty sizeable gap.
For Middlebrooks, it was a really impressive 75 game sample on the surface, but that 70-13 K/BB gives me great pause that he'll be able to continue that type of production. The 25 homer potential is real, but I think he's more of a .265 hitter (with downside risk). I'll take my chances with a potential 20-20 guy who should hit for a solid average over that.
Thanks - I agree that Beltre is the safest of that group, but he's also the oldest of the group as well. With that said, he was a very close second to Hanley for value pick, and I definitely understand the argument for it. I'm just a big Hanley supporter (who is anxiously awaiting hopefully good news this morning..)
That's exactly the point - he's worth a flier based on the potential, but the inherent risks are why he's a One Star guy.
I understand the concern, but even if you knock him down a few spots, he's still a clear Five Star guy. There are plenty of other guys in the second half of the first round and beyond who have question marks, most of which are much more concerning than these rumors.
Carpenter looks like he'll have the 2B job, but won't go into the season with the eligibility, which is why he's not on the list. I'm actually not all that high on him in fantasy, as I see his ceiling being in the Walker/Kendrick range, but with the added risk that his defense might not cut it for the Cardinals. He'd sit atop the One Star tier for me, above Tyler Greene, if he had the eligibility.
Of course, but he doesn't have 2B eligibility yet (we use 20 games as a benchmark) and that's why he's not included in this list. If he did, he'd be right in the middle of that 2nd tier.
That's more or less the plan I've been going with as well, except I have targeted Pedroia when he's fallen outside the top 25 picks or so, and I would throw Kendrick into that group with Walker/Ackley. I don't think I've ended up with a player in that third tier in any of the drafts/auctions I've done so far this year.
Obviously, there are defensive concerns - but I'd argue that if there weren't, he'd be in the two-star range. The numbers can be there if he gets the at bats, and if he only gets 350-400 PA, there's still enough value to warrant the pick. But there's no getting around it, it's ugly at the bottom of this position.
I'm admittedly very much a non-believer in Rutledge, at least compared to those who are pimping his as a huge sleeper. His plate discipline is brutal, and could very well catch up with him as he continues on through the league. I'd put him below Dustin Ackley as the last name in Tier 2.
For me, Gyorko would be right around where Ackley is at the bottom of the second tier. He's risky, just like any rookie is, but he has the potential to hit .275 with 15 homers.
This comment I found interesting as I consider Heathcott to be more of a high risk/upside type of guy than a low risk/close to the majors type. His numbers are understated because of all the time he's missed, but he can play.
That would certainly be a better question for someone from the prospect team to answer, but he's certainly trying to make the case that he's a more advanced hitter than originally thought. I still have a hard time envisioning a scenario where he reaches the majors for anything other than a September cup of coffee.
I still believe in Gary Brown - though clearly he's a riskier proposition than he was at this time last year.
Thanks - we really appreciate that!
Right now, there aren't any plans to, but earlier in the off-season I compiled a series of rankings designed specifically for dynasty leagues at my own site, The Dynasty Guru. There's clearly been some new information to come out since the rankings were done (mid-January), but you can find them here:
Not very - he'll be one of the first names you see in Part 2. Like him a lot.
He's ranked prominently on the second part of the list, so it's not that he shouldn't become a good fantasy player. It's just that I don't think he'll be a great fantasy player. Shortstop is a shallow position, but he doesn't have much pop and likely won't be a big base stealer as well. There's only so much upside a player like that has for fantasy, even if he projects as an outstanding major leaguer.
Your point is valid about Bradley, but the guy is built like a truck - plus he's athletic enough to project to improve upon that command/control. He could certainly be a 220+ inning workhorse and have a lot more starts that look like: 7 IP, 4 H, 2 ER, 4 BB, 9 K, 120 pitches. And, while entirely subjective, could potentially lead to a lot of wins.
I'm not reading too much into the big spring, and I can't see the Dodgers carrying him this year. He clearly has a ton of potential (which you'll see in the second half of the list), but I believe he has both less upside than Soler for fantasy purposes and greater risk.
For me, he's up there at the top tier -- likely sliding in at #3 between Taveras and Hamilton. I believe Machado will be a star and that he stands a good chance to earn back that SS eligibility once J.J. Hardy moves on.
Stuff like this was absolutely taken into account, just indirectly. The defense of players like Gary Brown and Jackie Bradley are important in the fact that they will give those guys extra shots at playing time. But just not nearly as important as their defense would be on a standard prospect list.
For me, Harvey would be a $20-25 pitcher with a low risk factor (though that's easy to say, since he's already flashed success at the major league level).
These rankings were done with a 16-team league in mind, which is more common in a dynasty format. That means that some of your high-risk players should be more valuable in a shallower league, and players with more certainty should tick up slightly in a deeper format.
I think that if he sticks at 2B, Tyorko's stats are likely to be relevant enough for shallower leagues -- just not as a top option. More like Neil Walker with a little more upside. I could see Gyorko hitting .280-.290 with 18-20 HR and solid counting stats at his peak.
As someone who uses a very similar strategy of valuation and bid limits for auctions, I thought this was a great write-up that provided detailed insight into a process that I've also had a lot of success with.
Chisenhall did get some consideration for HM, but did not end up there because there's a gap between him and WMB/Alvarez. Though, if the list went to 20, I think he would have made it. He could certainly be more valuable than Alvarez; however, that likely hinges more on Alvarez than on Chisenhall.
In a 12-team league, I probably would if there will be premium talent available in the auction to spend your money on. If you think most of the premium talent will be kept (or only available at crazy inflation), I think I'd rather have the stud and try to grab Machado back in the auction. Machado is also more attractive if that price stays low for the next couple of years.
Unless you've got someone way too good to be a reserve (i.e. another top-10 3B), I wouldn't bench him at all. His numbers in April/May have generally been good enough to leave him in there, it's just that when you get beyond May, they turn into pretty special numbers from the position. But with that said, the sample size is big enough now that it is something to be cognizant of.
The issue with that is that lefty mashers are generally better from a per game perspective than righty mashers (or at least the ones that are available late enough for the advantage to be optimized).
I think they're both pretty different cases, but think they are two guys worth monitoring as well. I think Gyorko has the better shot at winning a job out of Spring Training, but Carpenter has a better shot of being on the major league roster. I am very skeptical of Matt Carpenter's defensive ability to stick at 2B, and the Cards should have a strong enough lineup to be willing to stick it out with a better defensive option and have Carpenter be the first guy off the bench. I don't think he'd be a Mark Trumbo at 3B type disaster, but I just don't see the Cards going with him there. With Gyorko, I think he could stick defensively at the position, but he's got real competition with Logan Forsythe for that job.
I don't think something like this is workable in a weekly transaction league because it gets too subjective and you miss too much value. Even the home/road platoon would struggle to give you the same type of results, as you'd likely be missing about 30-40 games of the advantage on average by being locked in for the entire scoring period. The fact that you don't miss a choice matchup really drives up the value of the exercise.
You could certainly do that, but I wouldn't advise it. Playing time is playing time, even if it's not an ideal matchup -- and I'd almost never sit a hitter for an empty roster spot.
Any performance against same side pitching within those games is already factored in to the calculation. You'd expect to find slightly larger deviation between true L/R splits and ones between games started by LH/RH pitchers, but there's no way to use that specific data for fantasy. But in case you're curious to see what it looks like, here are the differences for each of the L/R split players between the two:
Cody Ross vs all LHP: .295/.373/.636
Cody Ross in games started by a LHP: .286/.357/.596
Garrett Jones vs all RHP: .289/.332/.556
Garrett Jones in games started by a RHP: .276/.316/.528
But for fantasy, this really only affects batting average -- the raw stats either remain just as strong, or get slightly stronger due to additional plate appearances.
The best names to keep an eye on for this are the ones mentioned in the Possibilities for 2013 section. For home ballparks, that could be Tyler Colvin, Lance Berkman, Ryan Ludwick or Nolan Reimold. For the L/R splits, it could be Jonny Gomes, Scott Hairston, Adam Lind or Matt Joyce.
Thanks for pointing that out. Originally, I had thought it was just poor performance for Fowler on the days he was in the lineup on the road, but it turns out that my spreadsheet wasn't pulling in his double-header from May 28th. That day, he had 7 hits, 1 homer, 3 RBI, 5 runs and a steal -- so I was actually understating my point.
With that day properly pulling in, the overall stat line for the platoon jumps to a .290 average, 31 homers, 98 RBI, 107 runs scored and 6 steals. I'm going to have this fixed in the post (as it also bumps the profit up).
Thanks! I believe that the Reds are doing the right thing by transitioning Chapman to the rotation and that it will work long term. And I'll take the under on Jansen getting 15 saves, though it's not because he won't be great, I just think Brandon League can be good enough to hold onto the job.
I'd also add that in a keeper league, Yasmani Grandal would be in the top-15 for me - though he obviously loses 2013 value with the suspension. I'd also bump Sal Perez up a spot or two.
How close was AJ Cole to making this list? He's been awfully impressive in Hagerstown so far this season.