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Gift Ngope has a shot of a callup at some point. He has decent year in AAA, will beat Demi to majors.
good list of prospects. thanks.
may not be fantasy relavent for most leagues...
but what of Padres SS, and rotation?
the rotation should be of interest for back-end of NL only rosters/benches
Col 1b? Assume its Reynolds, but will Patterson get a piece?
And who could close if Kenley misses time for LA? No true top setup guy, though a few did well last year. I assume if Kenley out for a long time, they'd make a trade.
If rotation spots are assured, how much value do you see changing for LA, SD, Mil?
Guys like Kazmir, McCarthy, Ryu, Wood - could be double-digit value in NL if knew they would hit 150 <span class="statdef"><a href="http://www.baseballprospectus.com/glossary/index.php?search=IP" onmouseover="doTooltip(event, jpfl_getStat('IP'))" onmouseout="hideTip()">IP</span></a>.
Mil and SD rotation options don't seem to have the same upside, but in NL only, anyone with a spot has some value.
J Barnes for Mil?
K% seemed to go up a bit since turned into reliever in minors.
not many options in Mil, I know, but not a fan of Feliz or Knebel. At this time last year, Thornburg was undraftable in all leagues and sizes, and had seen big improvements in stats since turning into a reliever.
I don't believe in Knebel. Who in the Brewers pen could be next in line if Feliz falters or gets dealt?
Mike, my thoughts are that NL pitching seems low in general, and in particular some of the starters under $10. There is some safe guys, and guys who had poor 2016's. Even low end closers seemed cheap.
Thoughts on the low-mid and lower starters in NL only?
Appreciate the work Mike. Your definitely one of the more trusted voices/sources on this stuff.
This is the stuff that those of us in mono leagues live for.
I'm sure most readers of this do already, but give Mike a follow on twitter, he's an entertaining fellow.
would love to hear more of some of these pitchers discussed on a future TINO.
They aren't technically prospects, and won't have an mlb spot to begin the year...
But what of A Blair and J Thompson if they get an extended opportunity at some point this year?
maybe the 'less-than-mildly interesting' or chance for more?
neither will be a big time starter, but I'm hesitant to write them off after such a short leash.
Obviously, the floor for all these guys is not making the majors. And yes, I did laugh many times and enjoyed the humor. Actually reminded me of the old Rotisserie Baseball books [I think by Glen Waggoner?] in the 90's.
I'll give a few examples-
Almora floor is John Jay. Jay's had a long career now, and had 2 or 3 years as fantasy useful with the Cards. I'd think Almora realistic floor would be AAA guy who gets called up for injury replacement because he can't hit, or is an annual Sept callup.
I'm not going to give any other examples, because after thinking it over some more, it all depends on our perspective for the comps you give. I'm an avid NL only player, so Jay was a useful player for a while. I looked at Jay for a few years as a potential 10-15 HR/SB guy with good avg. For the offensively challenged Almora, that'd be a good career. Whereas a mixed player likely looks down on Jay. or maybe one may look at the last year or two and see Jay's opportunity as an everyday or strong-side platoon is gone and he is just a lefty bench bat for the next 4-6 years.
This list format was not meant for long drawn-out explanations of the ceilings, floors, and risks. If I want to find out why Almora or any other player comps that way, I should just look into it myself.
The floors just seemed optimistic when I read it, and maybe I should just enjoy the thoughtful rankings, the humor, and any I disagree with should cause me to look into why.
Thanks for the work. Enjoy the lists and the podcast and everything.
obviously the dollar values are more for if they approach their peak/ceiling in potential earnings.
While I found a lot of the comments amusing, a lot of the realistic floors seemed pretty well-off. But I suppose the risk factor has to be mixed into the ceilings/floors as well.
Mike, enjoy your posts and when you can delve deep in podcasts.
When do you see your bid-limits, only-league values for 2017 posts coming out this year?
was a lot of NL teams that 'tanked' in the past year or two.
Maybe some of the AL squads with older high-priced talent will do the same soon.
Was the decision to draft Hamilton planned ahead? and could you comment on decisions later in the draft that were impacted by roster composition due to having Hamilton?
I can't imagine the legwork that goes into this list, from in-season discussions and scouting, etc, lots of hours over a long period of time.
And I realize there will be an article or two on guys who just-missed.
But did anyone consider making a supplement to it, say 101-200, and just putting the names in chunks of like 25 per group. Seems like a lot of data and discussion gets left on the cutting room floor.
I can't imagine the comments...." why wasn't so-and-so included; or he should have been in the 150-175 tier"
Yes, I know most of the stuff gets throw into the team prospect top 10s. But you can't say their wouldn't be a demand for it - either a top 200, or team top 20's.
Just a thought.
Where does the team/consensus come in terms of starters with potential to be a #3, or back-end types versus those with the potential for more?
We've seen guys in top 100's from various sites like A Blair and J Thompson in the past, get a month or two of starts and fall off the map.
I realize proximity to majors decreases risk. But I guess in general, does the team here favor say a guy in AAA who may be a 3/4 SP, or a teenager with stuff who may be more than that?
A good number of the top earners at 2b in the NL are about 30 or older.
Phillips quite old.
Zobrist is old and team has lots of options to keep him rested.
I would even go so far as to say that Harrison, C Hernandez, Panik, and Wong all have potential at-bat issues. [Frazier Pit, JP Crawford/Galvis Phi, Nunez <span class="statdef"><a href="http://www.baseballprospectus.com/glossary/index.php?search=SF" onmouseover="doTooltip(event, jpfl_getStat('SF'))" onmouseout="hideTip()">SF</span></a>, Gyorko Stl]
I'm sure most people reading this article have read the other fine works on the site, but what say you my dear author?
can we put much stock into the young men being on the road all season into some dip in performance? I realize, it would be more of searching for an excuse of someone like McMahon. But they are human and young and likely immature.
but isn't that where you'd find value potentially? Most of those names are not the most consistent or healthy.
If an Adams, or Peralta, or Wong ends up getting more ABs due to an injury or trade, then the auction value of a cheap Adams can play into that.
I think that Cervelli can bounce back a bit. He battled injuries all year and was never healthy, including a wrist that sapped his power. With his backup Stewart out, it forced the Bucs to play Cervelli more than they wanted given that he, too, was hurt.
Expecting a return to 2015 #s is very possible.
I enjoyed the article. phooey to some of those comments above. Cardinals Devil Magic is the correct response to most doubts.
This team seems to have a lot of SP depth, not quite Braves depth, but one of better in the league.
Is Flaherty over-shadowed by Alcantara/Reyes upside, and Weaver's readiness? Beyond Reyes, I've seen these pitchers bandied about in a variety of manner and order.
I understand the circumstances. I'm in two 12tm NL only, and a 30 team mixed... so rostering and having in my lineup pitchers who don't start or close is a weekly reality.
Getting value from a reserve pick, or even just thinking of a decent early-season FAAB option is where this could be beneficial.
Heck, it even could be a deep-league oriented article researching the number of wins by middle relievers over the past few years, and taking in the context of the manager and how the rotations will look this year vs in past.
Scooter - love the work you do, including the NL deep stuff in-season.
Do you think guys like Blanton -- trusted middle relievers on winning teams with rotations that won't pitch deep - can be something we can find value in for drafts?
LA is unusual since they had several guys returning from injury, Urias pitch counts, etc. but created environment for 7th/8th guys to get wins.
Any other teams you could see with a similar formula or players like that for 2017?
maybe Desmond is meant to be their super-utility type who plays almost daily in a host of positons? None of their other projected regulars play any other spots. [not counting moving Parra to 1b]
depth is not a bad thing.
Love the article Mike. Your work here before, during, and after the season is a highlight for me and I'm sure countless other readers.
You have a good balance of numbers and analysis, and make a good use of outside factors beyond the BP scope.
Forgive me if I missed this, but I assume this uses <span class="statdef"><a href="http://www.baseballprospectus.com/glossary/index.php?search=AVG" onmouseover="doTooltip(event, jpfl_getStat('AVG'))" onmouseout="hideTip()">AVG</span></a> and not <span class="statdef"><a href="http://www.baseballprospectus.com/glossary/index.php?search=OBP" onmouseover="doTooltip(event, jpfl_getStat('OBP'))" onmouseout="hideTip()">OBP</span></a>.
the final table had a lot of guys due to injury/suspension. Would love to see a follow up to this or other tables diving into it more.
I'm not so sure that Segura was guaranteed anything in the spring. They had a ton of competition in Arizona for middle infield. That makes his season all the more surprising.
the feared 'tanking' of NL teams I thought made for more speculative plays, as those of us in 'only leagues' need to accumulate ABs in their lineup.
I may be wrong, but didn't Freeman have a wrist injury in 2015?
some evaluators seem convinced Calhoun is limited to LF or DH in future. This would seem to make him a trade candidate from the Dodgers.
Thoughts on <span class="playerdef"><a href="http://www.baseballprospectus.com/card/card.php?id=104759">Braxton Davidson</a></span> and <span class="playerdef"><a href="http://www.baseballprospectus.com/card/card.php?id=70343">Rio Ruiz</a></span>?
Any thoughts on expanding to more than 10 write-ups or 5 others? Some systems like this could have had 20 to 30 interesting names.
wasn't Anderson formerly a 2b, now moved to 3b? I know not a super highly regarded guy, but over the course of 2 years, that is quite the slide down the defensive spectrum.
shame about Conner Joe, former 1st rd comp pick I believe, who it seems may struggle to get to AA someday.
just taking a dig at our rivals.
now we just need <span class="playerdef"><a href="http://www.baseballprospectus.com/card/card.php?id=105454">Ronald Acuna</a></span> to return to action from his hand injury suffered on the bases. Though he may just get kazoos sounding off and not trumpets....
i can hear the chants now...
ti-to po-lo.... clap/clap..clap/clap/clap...
ti-to po-lo.... clap/clap..clap/clap/clap...
ti-to po-lo.... clap/clap..clap/clap/clap...
the young plucky hustling ball player gets adorned by fans as he slides face-first into bases with his <span class="playerdef"><a href="http://www.baseballprospectus.com/card/card.php?id=57951">Josh Harrison</a></span> type hustle...and they chant
ban the DH.
Many of us who read this site watch a lot of baseball. We see lots of video clips, read a lot of stats. Some of us played in little league, maybe high school, legion ball, etc... who knows maybe more.
Pitchers aren't paid to hit. Even the best like Bumgarner, don't have a penny of their salary due to that ability. It's just a nice antidote. Oh, look Grienke can field good. There's just something about it. Something when that pitcher who goes up there to take their hacks, to get their chance at the lottery. Hey, maybe if that lug-head with the horrible swing can get a major league hit... that maybe I could to.
Or maybe it's when you see a hitter like <span class="playerdef"><a href="http://www.baseballprospectus.com/player_search.php?search_name=Ryan+Howard">Ryan Howard</a></span> hitting .170, or others hovering just below the Mendoza line. I remember scouring the stats of my local newspaper and being amazed as a kid when guys like Rhoden, Rick Reuchel, <span class="playerdef"><a href="http://www.baseballprospectus.com/player_search.php?search_name=Don+Robinson">Don Robinson</a></span>, etc - all would be crushing the ball waaay better than Belliard the slick fielding shortstop.
It's the joy of <span class="playerdef"><a href="http://www.baseballprospectus.com/card/card.php?id=395">Bartolo Colon</a></span>. When it's his turn in the rotation, you pay attention when he gets to the plate. It's entertainment, it's joy, it's guys who either look wildly entertaining, or look so good you can appriciate the work and time they've put into it.
It's baseball. It's fun.
Ban the DH.
a year ago Liriano was the ace of the team with the second best record in baseball. He's been their pick for wildcard games.
yes, he has been inconsistent over the course of his career... but to give up two guys who are arguably top 100 prospects to get out of $13mil.... inexcusable.
pure salary dump.
This is worse than the Touki trade to Atl last year.
Liriano was our nominal #1 starter for 3 years, and the dread of having a bad contract causes us to deal 2 of our top prospects.
Pittsburgh is livid.
We rationalized and bit our tongues with the Melancon deal... at least Rivero can be good and pitch in mlb now...
Pirates ownership suck. Huntington should leave when his contract is up and get a shot to run a real team with a real budget.
We're looking at at least a half-dozen guys making mlb minimum next year on our roster, and multiple other players signed to below-market prices. [Marte, Polanco, Cervelli, Kang, etc]
Here we go Steelers... here we go!
My thought was that the impending Bruce trade would open up playing time for Winker or Schebler. I know Winker just returned to AAA action recently, but either OF is more likely to see significant time there in 2017. I'd have thought that Peraza would see his playing time at the expense of trade targets [now or in offseason] Cozart or Phillip... or some in place of Hamilton in CF.
I'd almost argue, especially the way he is hitting, that Schebler can be like Dickerson is for SD stealling ABs and producing as an unexpected NL only asset down the stretch.
Seems to me that <span class="playerdef"><a href="http://www.baseballprospectus.com/card/card.php?id=100630">Tyrone Taylor</a></span> has fallen into that <span class="playerdef"><a href="http://www.baseballprospectus.com/player_search.php?search_name=Brian+Goodwin">Brian Goodwin</a></span> mold. Was one of better org prospects at one time, sputtered at AA, never really excelled at AAA, found self back at AA and org with many better prospects by then.
I'm sure both have a chance to be Alex Pressley or like a <span class="playerdef"><a href="http://www.baseballprospectus.com/card/card.php?id=50073">Travis Snider</a></span> without power bench-dude.
It did, thank you for the response.
Absolutely football, where college and pro games are readily available to armchair scouts, is likely much easier than baseball with the variables you mentioned.
Again, love the site, lists, and all that you guys do.
Was just looking at some football sites same times as reading BP yesterday.
Love this update every Friday.
Can't wait for Acuna to get back soon.
Thanks for the mid-year updates, and your responses in comments, twitter, podcasts, etc.
Has BP considered doing rankings like some fantasy football sites? Where they have the team rank guys and simply come up with an avg overall while still showing what all the site team ranked players. For football positions [WR, OL, RB, LB, etc] and not having different levels of minor legues - it makes it much simpler compared to baseball.
I do enjoy the overall effort and collaboration. I'm sure extra consideration is given to those in the field who see/scout these guys directly.
Love this injury/promotion recap.
Great article. It combined the charm of the minors, prospect coverage, some humor, etc.
Hansen is on the 40man, so he may get the call a few times this month.
But Hansen has poor defense at SS, and played mostly 2b/3b/LF this year in AAA. It seems Frazier and maybe Moroff has passed him by as future utility type guy to succeed S-Rod next year [the former <span class="playerdef"><a href="http://www.baseballprospectus.com/card/card.php?id=57951">Josh Harrison</a></span> role]
Could see Hansen in a bench role if Freese and/or Joyce are dealt.
Glasnow was interviewed on Pirates pre-game radio and was asked about his walks. He replied that his control is improved, and the team has asked him to improve his change-up, and asked him to throw it more often and in various counts. That this is his last hurdle to make the show.
He said how the change up is responsible for a good amount of walks and hits off him since he is throwing the most walks and breaking balls of his career this season.
Been hearing some conflicting reports on Eddy Julio. The lead prospect guy at another site said that Eddy doesn't have a frame to grow into much bigger, has a poor uppercut swing, is not nearly as fast or powerful as advertised, and implied he was behind Eloy, McKinney, Almora, Happ as OF prospects for Cubs.
Said folks going by hype from before he signed and comps made to <span class="playerdef"><a href="http://www.baseballprospectus.com/player_search.php?search_name=Andrew+Jones">Andrew Jones</a></span>, and advised to sell in leagues while still holds name value as a 21 y/o in low A.
Really made it sound like Eloy looks better now, and projects better in future. His opinions were from viewing the South Bend team multiple times this year.
I believe the Pirates do this for mlb team a bit. ie - they've brought in lefties, or guys with curveballs who have just dropped out of pro/affiliated ball.
I really liked this kind of article/series. Would enjoy more of it.
yes. Bell may have worse defense if you can believe. Jaso just what they want at top of order
Pirates are loaded w depth for starting. [Glasnow, Tailon, several others at AA and AAA] My guess as a Pittsburgher, is that he is the next <span class="playerdef"><a href="http://www.baseballprospectus.com/card/card.php?id=51927">Jared Hughes</a></span>. Throws decently hard and can get ground balls.
+1 good article
No doubt. Great one.
My kid stopped at 13 recently playing. The star kids who played for their local league with their friends, on all-star teams from that league, travel teams, fall leagues, private training, etc. It's all waaay too much for kids. Kids are told when they are elementary school age that they must pick a sport and specialize to reach their full potential. Every parent thinks their kid will get a scholorship or get drafted.
Friends of my kid would complain about sore arms. Coaches from a travel team wouldn't care that a kid pitched in a local league game recently. Parents would go to kids teams and tell them when they can or can't pitch - which would make the kids be a in a tough spot like a selfish person.
They teach curveballs once gets get to the 11/12 year old leagues.
Essentially, the only break these kids get is from mid-Nov thru New Years or whenever their private personal lessons start up in winter. I'm sure its worse in warmer climates. [live in <span class="statdef"><a href="http://www.baseballprospectus.com/glossary/index.php?search=PA" onmouseover="doTooltip(event, jpfl_getStat('PA'))" onmouseout="hideTip()">PA</span></a>]
Here ya go Mike.
(Not sure if these emojis will work)
Locally, the big worry that all the radio talk shows are bringing up is .... does this signing mean that Cutch won't be signed long-term. We have Cutch thru 2108, and Meadows and Rameriez will be ready by then. Easy to sign upside guys like Marte, Polanco to long term deals, wrapping them in team control thru age 30+. [though some like Tabata don't work out] but paying the big bucks to stay compettive?
Pirates, 2nd best record in baseball last year and setting attendance records for the team, are among the 10 lowest payrolls in the majors, at just under $100mil.
Unfortunately, I think that Freese will also log some time at 1b, and if <span class="playerdef"><a href="http://www.baseballprospectus.com/player_search.php?search_name=Josh+Bell">Josh Bell</a></span> impresses he may see some time if there is an injury to Jaso/Morse/Freese.
Could get some good value there is an infielder gets hurt long-term, but otherwise it's muddled.
Not sure if he is still a prospect or not, but Alcantara for the Cubs just seemed to have a couple of bad months early, then a contentding team went and bought some other options.
He would seem to have as much talent as guys like Caesar Hernandez, Spagenburg, and a host of other marginal talents at 2b/OF for teams that are valuable in deep leagues.
Does anyone know how much time Moss has gotten in the OF this spring for Stl?
also, I'm not sold on Broxton in CF for Brewers. I know there has been some glowing reports, but gotta think that the combination of Broxton/Flores, and Kirk N [not trying to spell that name] is going to suck and we may see Phillips by summer. Broxton's a guy who was in the minor league rule V draft not too long ago, and the Bucs wouldn't even give an <span class="statdef"><a href="http://www.baseballprospectus.com/glossary/index.php?search=AB" onmouseover="doTooltip(event, jpfl_getStat('AB'))" onmouseout="hideTip()">AB</span></a> to down the stretch last year. Then again, the Brewers might just be letting Broxton get his shot now in this 2-3 month window before the hot prospect comes up.
<span class="teamdef"><a href="http://www.baseballprospectus.com/team_audit.php?team=SFN" target="blank">San Francisco Giants</a></span>
Popcorn guy, left field, mid-level
The Giants have two unremarkable under-the-radar candidates for the popcorn guy position. They've both not been highly regarded and not seen as candidates for the more illustrious beer guy spots. The Golden State Warriors wanted more flash [butter and salt] in their popcorn guys, and the cross-town A's are focusing on some younger popcorn guys that have good secondary stats like unpopped kernals. Have not doubt though, that the Giants always make the right move, and whomever the Giants select, will have some impactful sales from literally out of left field.
good interview. No doubt this young man will have a long career in baseball once he hangs up the cleats.
I think I tweeted you this question already Mike -
in a 12tm NL only; we play with 1 Catcher and 2 Utility. SP usually go for a lot.
thoughts on how value may shift around?
last year Top 10-12 catchers still went normal prices, and just a couple of teams grabbed a 2nd catcher for utility or place at other position.
In Pittsburgh, <span class="playerdef"><a href="http://www.baseballprospectus.com/card/card.php?id=35060">Brad Eldred</a></span> is lore. The era of Dave Littlefield as GM [I think] deep in the midst of the 21 years of losing.
<span class="playerdef"><a href="http://www.baseballprospectus.com/card/card.php?id=705">Kris Benson</a></span> was all kinds of Giolito/Glasnow/etc. [well at least to our un-educated pre-moneyball minds] Littlefield turned down a trade where the Phillies would have given us a young, mashing, powerful <span class="playerdef"><a href="http://www.baseballprospectus.com/card/card.php?id=37145">Ryan Howard</a></span> in exchange for Kris Benson and his playmate wife Anna.
Reason: some guy nicknamed 'Big Country', was tearing up AA at the time.
Sweet! How excited must you have been to get this connection.
Hope to see your continued excellent work on the site for a long time.
I love fantasy baseball, and is main reason I come here, but do greatly enjoy the real baseball and side-bar articles too. Keeps the place well-rounded.
(What ever happened to <a href="http://www.baseballprospectus.com/author/john_perrotto">John Perrotto</a>?)
With international guys, things like language and culture and maturity play a factor early in these guys career. Those of us reading these articles just get info from reading or stat lines.
Is there any light that can be shed on 'taking it slow' with guys, especially hitters?
Someone like Eloy has huge potential, yet is the same age as some guys like Gleybar or <span class="playerdef"><a href="http://www.baseballprospectus.com/card/card.php?id=103203">Amed Rosario</a></span> who played A+ball at points last year.
Conversely, someone like Cease - even if his ability all clicks - faces a huge battle to build up innings to be a true SP. forget 200 inning. Guys like Cease, Tailon, Urias, etc may have a tough time getting to 170-180 innings in next 2 years.
Is Clippard the setup?
Was watching a game on MLB network, and the Arz announcers said Hudson would pitch the 8th. Keep in mind, not much of what they said was noteworthy, and they might have been showing deference to the vet whom the home fans know and recognize.
I worry that Ramos may get traded and end up in a setup role. Same with Jeffress or <span class="playerdef"><a href="http://www.baseballprospectus.com/player_search.php?search_name=Will+Smith">Will Smith</a></span>.
In the unbalanced NL this year we have contenders, middling Padres and Marlins, and a bunch rebuilding.
For leagues with holds.... Would that push the amount of desirable holds targets to just the contenders?
Also, any idea for LA and NYM holds?
Mike - for NL only leagues that use 'saves + holds divided by 2' <span class="statdef"><a href="http://www.baseballprospectus.com/glossary/index.php?search=SV" onmouseover="doTooltip(event, jpfl_getStat('SV'))" onmouseout="hideTip()">SV</span></a> + (H/2) as a category, would you say in the NL that elite setup guys on winning teams become that much more valuable?
ie - Watson, Strop, Clippard, S Kelly, Romo, etc, etc
This <a href="http://www.baseballprospectus.com/author/scooter_hotz">Scooter Hotz</a> dude. (Seriously, what's your real name?!)
Your like the Wilson Contreras of BP writers. Never heard of ya a year ago, now getting all the pub.
Best article read in a long long time.
Verdugo seemed a bit underwhelming in the blurb compared to some other sites. Specifically in the power/speed. I know its hard to judge speed based on <span class="statdef"><a href="http://www.baseballprospectus.com/glossary/index.php?search=SB" onmouseover="doTooltip(event, jpfl_getStat('SB'))" onmouseout="hideTip()">SB</span></a> totals in low minors. Is it just lack of potential, or scouts preference in why his outlook isn't as rosy?
And am I the only one anxiously awaiting a new file photo for Urias after his mid-season surgery last year?
love the article with so much uncertainty in the NL bullpens.
Any other righties that may setup Ramos for the Marlins? Ramos kinda came from nowhere, and Marlins are always possible to deal their assets.
Read some reports that Hansel Robels may end up as the setup guy in NYM. That's a long way from saves, but is he a worthy stash on benches of deep NL only squads?
was this list a collective effort from the BP team, or just Mr Sayre? I know either this or the TDG list was just him.
And was this list [especially as get lower down the line] based more on high-end potential or how likely they were to reach potential?
While not perfect, many of above ideas are improvements.
You sir, made more sense today than Mr Selig did for a few decades.
A good number of the pitchers listed with "others", are guys knocking on the 101 door and prospects that fans clamor for.
Of all the "others", which couple are most likely to be a top-50 guy at this time in a year?
If he gets a fresh start, can Montero become a decent starter?
Seems he could be bait for a bullpen piece or good bench bat.
Heard about possible innings limit for Corbin.
Could be trouble for a team w playoff aspirations, as well as fantasy owners who want production week in and week out for our main starters.
If he 'breaks out', is it worth it if he departs after 5 or 6 innings? Gets skipped? Etc
love this series of back-end guys by position. For those of us in deep NL or AL only leagues, it's a must read.
Guys with the big ceiling, it's hard to quit, no matter how good/bad, fast/slow they progress. Sometimes you gotta just put your stake in the ground and say, dammit - I'm holding onto <span class="playerdef"><a href="http://www.baseballprospectus.com/card/card.php?id=104176">Eloy Jimenez</a></span> until he takes that <span class="playerdef"><a href="http://www.baseballprospectus.com/player_search.php?search_name=Brian+Goodwin">Brian Goodwin</a></span> career path.
Does frame to add strength factor in at all? We look at Polanco's size, and figure he will continue to add power to his game as his speed declines in his later 20's.
Pirates seem to think he will hit more towards the middle of the order later in his career.
Real or fantasy. Own him in leagues, or a Dodgers fan. He'll hold all our attentions soon enough.
Is he Fernando?
Will he be part teenage Doc Gooden and part lefty Maddox?
Of all the things I have read on the Internet.... I feel your response to the original comment should have been made in ALL CAPS!
While the entire internet loves <span class="playerdef"><a href="http://www.baseballprospectus.com/card/card.php?id=104023">Victor Robles</a></span>, in both real and fantasy prospect lists, I find a 'low risk' for an 18 y/o to be eye-opening.
Same with <span class="playerdef"><a href="http://www.baseballprospectus.com/card/card.php?id=104805">Grant Holmes</a></span> who is just 19, and not seen much fanfare this offseason.
<span class="playerdef"><a href="http://www.baseballprospectus.com/card/card.php?id=103203">Amed Rosario</a></span>'s prospect status has a lot to do with his defense. However, his decent offensive potential seems to be at least on par with most in that last tier.
Really this list could have gotten more than 50 legit names, that yes, I'd be excited about.
Quite surprised to see how Glasnow rated.
In Pittsburgh, we've been hearing Glasnow has trouble repeating delivery, and lacks command.
Compared to Cole, who breezed thru minors, Glasnow doesn't have the same off-speed, command, etc.
I'm happy he is thought of so highly, just differs from what we hear locally.
Maybe it was Pirate-spread propaganda intended to keep him in minors longer.
Just for kicks.... Say Villar gets a full season of ABs. Arcia struggles, Gennett gets hurt, playing time at 3b, whatever.
What can Villar earn if given the chance?
Yea, Mercer had some video-games like #'s against lefties that one year.
Made him awesome in, um, uh video games that year.
Really enjoyed hearing the how/why.
Would love to see more of this on prospect/fantasy/team lists.
Thoughts on <span class="playerdef"><a href="http://www.baseballprospectus.com/card/card.php?id=104759">Braxton Davidson</a></span>?
Braves think highly of him, invited to camp. Good hitter, good patience, developing power. I know ability to stick in OF is unlikely.
Is he kind of like a poor-man's version of a Winker or Conforto? (Obviously years behind in development)
A couple of those descriptions near the end harkened me back to those old Rotisserie League baseball books. The ones that would have a paragraph poking fun at a Raffy Belliard and just a line denoting their lot in life for the season. Pre internet fantasy baseball.
We would track our scores via newspaper box scores. I think a guy named Hunt wrote for USA Today and was the 'top authority' in our minds. Hardly knew what obp was back then.
Very cool. Will be checking it out.
We all know about Dahl and Tapia.....
Does any Rockies OF (not named Cargo, Blackmon, or Parra) take a step up in value now? As we know, just ABs in that park will produce value. Seems to be room for a righty to get some time in.
Hanson will be in AAA to start til likely June.
Harrison at 2b, and reports that Kang will be ready to start year.
Florimon will be backup infielder for few months.
Loved the line in the leftovers tier.
Wong, to me at least, has the potential for high avg, ~15 homers, ~20+sb, and possibly an asset in runs if he hits near top of lineup. A lot of IFs, I know. I think he could out perform the tier above him if things go right.
He came up very young, and like Pollock last year, may be ready to break out now.
With today's game, and the drop in speed and power, guys who could go 10/20, or maybe 15/25 should have more value, no?
Good article. Keep it up.
Do <span class="playerdef"><a href="http://www.baseballprospectus.com/card/card.php?id=68908">Andrew Knapp</a></span> or <span class="playerdef"><a href="http://www.baseballprospectus.com/card/card.php?id=70926">Aramis Garcia</a></span> have the potential to be offensive-minded starting catchers if given opportunity?
The writer grossly underestimated how many baseball geeks are out there, and how much our Friday nights consist of reading baseball sites while waiting to doze off at 10pm
Even though I bookmarked it, would love to see it reposted closer to draft season. Or at least linked in future articles.
Good article here. Would love to see this referenced in a few months.
Pirates are claiming no money. Niece and Vogelsong in rotation with <span class="playerdef"><a href="http://www.baseballprospectus.com/card/card.php?id=50102">Jeff Locke</a></span>. SRod and/or Hanson playing while Jung-ho heals.
They've spend almost all of their self imposed $100mil budget.
... Wasting the prime of Cutch, Marte, and Cole
Gyorko can give a day off to anyone in the infield. He can play average or sluggish defense at any spot.
It's a sign they don't want Garcia or Diaz on the roster.
Does this trade signal that Moss will play more OF?
Fans in the burgh hope its at least that high.
Love it guys.
Detailed analysis of minor league guys with a strong lean towards fantasy/dynasty leagues.... And a bit of humor and attitude too.
Yes, dammit, I do care about Arroyo's future. He's at $1 in my NL-only 12tm league. And, dammit, that's why I click here. A mediocre platoon 1b worth $10 but kept at $1 makes guys like Dom not just relavent, but valued.
Good points sir.
Seems like the D-backs want to retool, not rebuild. But also Drury should be up in 2016, and hard to say where guys like Tomas will end up.
Owing should get another year to let his potential have time to flourish, but may not have more time than that to turn into an impact regular.
<span class="playerdef"><a href="http://www.baseballprospectus.com/card/card.php?id=85688">Jim Benedict</a></span> deserves a ton of credit with guys the Bucs acquired in recent years as well.
Great insight! Glad to have you on the site.
Sweet Moses..... Thank goodness, thought it was another <span class="statdef"><a href="http://www.baseballprospectus.com/glossary/index.php?search=TJS" onmouseover="doTooltip(event, jpfl_getStat('TJS'))" onmouseout="hideTip()">TJS</span></a> victim.
Love these updates, it's a must read all the time.
Question- why show runs for pitchers as opposed to <span class="statdef"><a href="http://www.baseballprospectus.com/glossary/index.php?search=ER" onmouseover="doTooltip(event, jpfl_getStat('ER'))" onmouseout="hideTip()">ER</span></a>?
<span class="playerdef"><a href="http://www.baseballprospectus.com/card/card.php?id=101145">Tito Polo</a></span> may be an 80-grade name....
But I can hear Chris Berman and other announcers creating crappy nicknames in his future.
How much could injuries affect these guys and others?
Minor league info and reliability can be sketchy
Does Rogers stand to play much 3b?
I know poor defense, but Brewers limited options there, and he has some offensive ability for those in deep NL leagues.
Tapia stance = poor man's Bagwell stance
Tapia body = opposite of Bagwell's diet and, uh, 'supplements'.
Matrix or Back to the Future?
Or is it some Terminator thing where <span class="playerdef"><a href="http://www.baseballprospectus.com/card/card.php?id=90306">John Conner</a></span> comes back to make sure the Cubs win the World Series and Gleybar is the only man who can do it!
I know this isn't a reason, but it works well for other sports. It'd be one thing if it was just Cuban, Korean, or Japanese professionals well into their careers. But Latin players compose such a large percentage of the total players.
Look at what lucias fox did this year.
Lots to work out, may not happen in next years, but the sport needs to be working towards that.
Any chance we'll see individual top50 lists from all those who contributed? So we could compare and contrast.
<span class="playerdef"><a href="http://www.baseballprospectus.com/card/card.php?id=105421">Gilbert Lara</a></span> is hitting over .400, as a 17y/o. Yes, it's low level and small sample size.
Say he maintains over .300 with power at the age of some high school juniors.... Would he crack the 101 this offseason?
My apologies, Rey is in the main article.
(I'm just getting accustomed to an abrieviated name, you know, like lazy old white announcers will give Latin players with unique names)
Great series of articles today BP team. Would love to see more of differing opinions and players who certain staff members are upset didn't make the cut.
For fantasy purposes, I'm surprised neither <span class="playerdef"><a href="http://www.baseballprospectus.com/card/card.php?id=70776">Roman Quinn</a></span> or <span class="playerdef"><a href="http://www.baseballprospectus.com/card/card.php?id=70851">Mallex Smith</a></span> was named in any article today. Both have potential to steal 40+, and hit better than <span class="playerdef"><a href="http://www.baseballprospectus.com/player_search.php?search_name=Billy+Hamilton">Billy Hamilton</a></span> has done this year.
Renfroe and Winker really struggled with jump to AA, while Mallex excelled. But hey, you, guys are the experts.
And I didn't expect Rey Lopez to be high given his struggles statistically, but not even a mention in any article.
Would love to read an interview with the guy who wrote the funny book with his own predictions. Glen Wagoner? Does that name sound right?
His books were hysterical!
<span class="playerdef"><a href="http://www.baseballprospectus.com/player_search.php?search_name=Ike+Davis">Ike Davis</a></span>, hell anyone with a pulse in NY or LA gets over blown in any sport.
What was that 'big 3 arms' back in the day? <span class="playerdef"><a href="http://www.baseballprospectus.com/card/card.php?id=17531">Bill Pulsipher</a></span>, and two others?
Please in future update Underwood status. Minor league inj updates are tough to come by.
Heard Marcus Molina has elbow too. <span class="statdef"><a href="http://www.baseballprospectus.com/glossary/index.php?search=TJS" onmouseover="doTooltip(event, jpfl_getStat('TJS'))" onmouseout="hideTip()">TJS</span></a>?
It took me a minute.....lol but finally got it.
Disheartening to see all of these guys going to just a small # of teams potentially.
Need a worldwide draft. It's one of few things NBA does better.
Steroids that aren't detectable.
Would love to see this for every minor league all-star game.
Agreed. Keep up the good work
<span class="playerdef"><a href="http://www.baseballprospectus.com/card/card.php?id=104180">Gleyber Torres</a></span> - your 2020 NL starting all star game shortstop.
Same thing the Pirates did with Tabata.
Most overpaid guys are still worthy of the MLB.
Who could close in Mil, if they start dealing soon?
Broxton stinks, a few younger guys.... Jeffriss, Kneubel, etc....
I hope this series continues with other positions.
Maybe more plentiful positions could have more than a "top 5 ballot"?
Love this series.
Position player, healthy, and on 40-man roster. That about sums it up.
I'd be shocked if he was still up in June.
Love the article.
Glad it's not a hundred players long. Good in its current quick hitting form, showing variety.
I was surprised that Lorenzen didn't make the list at all, while Stephenson made the top20/21.
We all know there is limited new content posted on the weekend.
Perhaps Friday is best for the column.
Is there real prospects in the game?
Video games on console systems usually only had names for guys on 40 man rosters.
Love this article every week. Especially the deep league ones.
I'm almost surprised at how well Quinn is doing after such a major injury and position change.
I'd be inclined to say he should have room to improve his defense, batting eye, and hitting as he gains more experience.
What player of this type would he compare to for his game with other 80-grade speed types?? (Past or present)
Not Walker. <span class="playerdef"><a href="http://www.baseballprospectus.com/card/card.php?id=45471">Sean Rodriguez</a></span> had some time there in spring.
Hurdle stated in spring not Walker.
Would the offensive profile of Rondon be somewhat similar to Panik, but with better defense?
Urena is a name that doesn't get as much attention as other Met prospects.
Could he be looked at as a heir for Wright in 2-3 years, or is that too much at this stage? Would love to hear more about him.
Any comps on Quinn?
Not many 80 speed guys out there, so possibly compare to a past player?
I'd assume there is room to grow on defense considering his position switch and injury issues.
Great podcast this week. Can say I definately learned a lot.
EY jr must have photos of Bud Selig or something to keep getting chances.
Should I assume the prices are based on avg and not <span class="statdef"><a href="http://www.baseballprospectus.com/glossary/index.php?search=OBP" onmouseover="doTooltip(event, jpfl_getStat('OBP'))" onmouseout="hideTip()">OBP</span></a>?
btw, enjoy your articles. Sites and writers come and go for fantasy analysis. I like to try and find people who's opinion seems trustworthy. Good job.
It sounds fantastic.
I'm sure it's tougher than I realize to put together and produce, but I'd be much likely to buy if it were available prior to my dynasty draft [and early enough to consume and analyze]. If it's anything like the great content on the site, I'm sure it's amazing, but available in late Feb would beneficial to those drafts in early March.
Most of these names are owned in deep dynasty leagues.
Surprised wasn't more prospects over older vets near end.
ie - AJ burnett for 1 year versus say Urena who may or may not get more than 30 starts in career
Coulter pretty much an OF now?
T Taylor isn't too far away, has upside with power/speed, surprised he ismt higher.
Reds: is prospects in order of value - Winker, Ervin, then Y Rodriguez?
Buccos put the kibosh on it.
Was when Russell newly signed w/ Bucs
Thoughts on Yorman Rodriguez playing time? I can see senarios where Bruce or Byrd gets dealt.
I worry he will fall behind Winker by 2016.
Does Christian arroyo just not have enough upside ?
Thoughts on Christian Arroyo?
Figure he is 3yrs away. I am hesitant to give up on or deal former 1rd picks til I know more about them.
Sanchez is just AAA depth. He stinks on defense which the Pirates value.
Cervelli and Stewart will handle duties this year, and don't be surprised if Valle gets a shot.
McGuire is prolly 2 years away.
June or July
Thoughts on Coulter's future in Milwakee?
Hitting well. 1b if continues?
And wasn't Stryker moved to another position this past year?
Fyi... Valle signed w Pirates .
Love these articles. Starting to get 'back in the mood'.
Would love to see OBP included.
Can definitely see Cervelli sneaking in the bottom with the most consistent playing time he's had in majors.
Any thoughts on Ryder Jones?
Chances for being a big-league regular?
Liz will likely be a bullpen arm.
Buccos already have Cole, Liriano, AJ, Morton, Locke, Worley, Cumpton as a top 7 rotation. Cumpton will begin in AAA, and Morton will be ready by May.
If the Reds do acquire a potential starting OF, what are the odds of Yorman being on the roster in a Heisy-type role?
Or does his youth (and MLB options) suggest they will let him play everyday in AAA?
Soler who played, what, 5 weeks as ROY??
Arrieta as Cy and MVP????
Guess some of these voters are just as hacked as the real ones.
No matter what one thinks of his career or stats, he played the game tough.
There were rumors of Giles and Kendall being jerks in Bucco clubhouses.
I wonder what his thoughts were on the ankle, and how it affected him in the following years. I often wondered his thoughts on steroids too, as some of those Pirate teammates were on them. A friend once compared Biggio to Kendall.... And said minus the horrific ankle injury, add in roids, and they'd be viewed fairly similar.
Jones will be an OF or just utility player.
Best case can replace Neil Walker if Hansen doesn't work out.
Maybe LF if Cutch leaves in a few yrs, marte goes to CF, and neither of Meadows or Bell work out. Lots of "ifs" for him to be a bucco regular.
Once you get a "rep" hard to break.
Even Puig can be accused of 'not hustling' at times, but that hasn't stopped his promotion.
What of the 'catching' prospects we saw dealt to the Cubs and AZ?
I've only played in "only" leagues. More strategy, more depth needed, need to plan ahead.
Plus...... The DH sucks.
Chuck in Uniontown sends his regards Rocco.
Good stuff man.
Offered a $1 T Jordan, and $9 Soler for a $20 Headley.
NL only dynasty where you lose players that go to AL, and salaries increase $2/yr for major leaguers.
Is offer fair?
I thought of also including a $1 JR Graham.
What happened to John Perotto, who used to do a weekly piece?
they'll give Wandy another chance. Heard on radio today that Wandy will get at least 1-2 rehab starts before being activated.
Can always go back to Cumpton later [or Locke] if Wandy fails again in May. With Talion out, Cumpton and Locke are only alternatives this year unless Pimentel gets a shot.
What about Hembree or Law as potential replacements for Romo?
Deeper Ben, deeper.
Dietrich was a hot commodity in my re drafts (12tm NL only) and 12tm NL only dynasty.
Logan Shafer? Multiple $'s.
Seriously though, looking forward to this article this year.
I realize there is 'stuff' and the perception that a pitching coach likely believes he can be the one to fix a certain pitcher....[and the Buccos have done that recently] but it just seems odd to me that Maholm can't get even a 'battle' for a starting gig, while Volquez gets $5m guaranteed.
great article. definitely copy this format and style in future years.
increase in ERA and WHIP for AJ Burnett...
or errors by Clint Barmes.
[who is now a bench player but saved AJ a ton last year]
Thoughts on Mesoraco?
I know he'll never be a superstar, but as a catcher could hit 20 homers without Dusty holding back his AB's. [though his defense may still be a factor]
He's fairly similar to Gattis, but with better defense and less power... and without the downside of falling out of the majors.
Lambo will be the platoon 1b for the Pirates this year with Gaby. Worked on his defense there during winter leagues.
repeat this article yearly. thanks.
appriciate the updates. Good work.
Forgive me if this sounds off... but wouldn't Gio's have been from PEDs possibly?
And J-Zim recovering lost velocity from past major surgery?
Nolan Arenado was getting tons of hype last year at this time. I know his season didn't match the level of the prior year, but any other big reasons for his drop?
in NL only leagues this year - numbers will differ.
The standard NL league may now just have 12 teams. We lost the Astros.... who may have sucked, but at least provided AB's and IP's for teams to plug in to get stats.
I bet someone that Cruz doesn't get 350 AB's this year.
either Gordon is at SS, or they make a trade by end of May.
in other news.... the Pirates found a way to get out from under the Liriano contract that was never official, and shockingly save money.
if the cost is a low-risk minor league deal....
There are far far worse pitchers out there getting AAA contracts with or without an escape clause.
The Pittsburgh media are heralding Oliver as a 5th starter possibility.
so reporting to spring training in early February isn't enough time?
I went with Byrd over Allen Craig for the same auction price in an NL only league. I suck. Safe to say, not in the money spots this year.
good summary. using this as I type up my bids.
fans in the 'burgh are starting to clamor for Clement to come up and replace their 1b/RF combo of players.
"the grudges great and small that I bear when I kick back with a beer from the comfort of my couch or a ballpark seat"
followed with the first team begining with...
"A 1998 expansion team, they began life wearing the most garish color combination in the game, a purple-and-teal-with-gold-accent nightmare ensemble"
you sure that was a beer, and not an apple-tini you were drinkin there?
Neil Walker most likely will begin the year hitting 5th for the Buccos. Presley and Tabata will hit 1 and 2 in some order, followed by 'cutch. Walker should have strikeout artists Alvarez and Barajas behind him. Decent RBIs, but poor runs scored.
appriciate the upfront feedback with us, your customers.
Lots of other places would either leave it go with the mistakes, not inform us of particulars, or have the guts to answer the tough questions not only on this subject but all the articles.
if Gamel struggles, what is their gameplan? Move Hart to 1b regularly, or will Green get some time there in the spring?
I'd think that down the road in their careers, that both A-Ram and Hart could fall there if still hitting. But they certainly won't shift over A-Ram mid-season.
re: Miami's new park.
I'd imagine an elite power like Stanton will be much less effected by the bigger dimensions, than say someone like Buck or Sanchez? Considering their catcher's one offensive positive was his power, how badly does he drop down the rankings?
Given that he's almost 30, and had significant back issues - do you think Wright will even come close to the 19 steals projected?
seems like a lot of games for Rolen, even if he's healthy all year.
What are the chances of M Carpenter possibly transitioning to 2nd base?
With a better player seemingly ahead of him, and behind him at AA - seems like an idea to try a new position to become a utility guy in the majors.
sounds interesting, though I'm sure it will be at least a couple of seasons before the major sites that host leagues to incorporate it.
ah the days of the Leviathan. John Hunt reccomending Karim Garcia year after year....
the obvious question is where else does Collette write?
Cust might just be one player who will be worth reading those spring reports of what kind of shape he's in, or how many innings he plays the field.
I know you qualified it with full-time AB's [and health] but Snyder on a short-term contract will be lucky to start 2-3 times a week once Castro is back and healthy. Snyder's own health has to be a question mark. $1 flyer in a deep NL league due to his power potential.
In regards to Campana, anyone who saw him knows he's got tremendous speed and therefore a fantasy prospect.
What kind of ABs will he get this year? [this may be a 2-part answer as in early in year vs after the potentially trade Byrd and/or Soriano]
In deep NL only leagues, at the least Campana is a $1-3 pick or at worst a bench guy.
Getting a cheap steals guy who surprisingly tops 30 steals is just as good as speculating on setup men for about the same price.
first, don't completely disregard Frazier from getting some LF at-bats for the Reds.
What's the odds that Byrd will still be on the Cubs, say by August 1st? Epstein seems intent on rebuilding, and Byrd is a free agent at end of the year. Jackson seems ripe to step in soon. They won't want to reduce Byrd's ABs before dealing him and calling up the prospects.
With Dusty's preference for established veteran talent, I bet that Hannigan will get at least 40-50% of the starts.
I wonder how Frazier will get ABs even with his abiliby to fill-in a several spots defensively. [Ludwick and Heisey will man LF, Dusty loves Rolen and Fransico will play when Rolen gets hurt]
Could we also see Hamilton play at 2 levels this year in an effort to see if he can play everyday at 2b in 2013?
A bad pitcher can really hurt your team, as opposed to just not helpling. And some truely bad pitchers likely wouldn't have been on the team for very long as mentioned in the article by those who view dollar days as future waiver-wire fodder.
But I wonder of the $1 pitchers who turned a profit - just how many of those were set-up men who got 'lucky' and thrust into a closer's role to earn $$$ for their owners. [whether the pre-season closer was ineffective, hurt, or traded] I'd venture taking those mid-season closers out would alter the #'s.
Conversely, an owner is far less likely to drop his $1 catcher or middle infielder just because there is less replacement level players out there.
if the PED era assumption is how you construct your ballet, then how to include Palmero and not McGwire? Seems to me, a voter would either include both, or neither.
Real debate will start next year with Bonds, Sosa, etc coming on the ballet.
Larry Walker? Rockies hitters have to get at least the same stigma as potential steriod users.
I wonder if Zambrano wasn't hispanic or Ozzie wasn't manager.... would the Marlins have made this deal??
I'd like to hear John Perrato's view on the voters for these awards, their bias, and rationals.
Mike Morse, $13
Geraldo Parra $2
Was this perhaps Morse's career year with holes in his swing? or is improvement possible for a guy who took so long to get to this point and this opportunity?
12tm NL only league. Can keep 3 players total.
Other potential keepers include:
Danny Espinosa $13
Brandon Beachy $7
Mike Leake $1
Jon Niese $6
Daniel Hudson $13
RA Dickey $6
Clint Barmes $1
Jon LuCroy $4
David Freese $13
Kevin Correia, I believe, was signed to a 2 year deal and likely will fill in at the back end of the rotation.
Lincoln might step in if the Maholm option isn't exercised.
Doumit has a 2-year option for 15.5mil that the Buccos must choose between that and a 6.5mil option for Snyder. Jaramillo and newly aquired Pagnozzi will battle for backup.
One area they could look to upgrade/replace is Cedeno at SS. or possibly aquire a new 1B to make Jones a platoon/bench player.
So does the game not start out with the 'real' MLB players of current day? [I've never played or seen this game before]
Anyone else have any reviews, details, suggestions, etc about this game for a newbie prospective buyer?
wahoooooo!! two Buccos all-stars!!
is it too early to call Venable a 'steal specialist'?
mediocre power, weak avg, etc...
honestly, still not deep enough.
in a NL only 10tm - 30man roster [including bench], also a 12tm NL only 28man roster [including bench].
Carroll and Baker were both drafted in both leagues. heck, Hannigan was a $8 catcher [OBP league]
for middle infielders it needs to be MI #35-45 for NL
Cin/Hou ov 8.5 -120 looks tasty, Happ/Leake both won't have quality starts & 8.5 is key number to play over
Norris seems to have loads of potential. What I noticed with him last year was that while he'd struggle with giving up large amounts of baserunners at times, at times he could dominate. His performances against the Pujols-led Cardinals makes me onder if his concentration level and mental preparedness is there each and every start?
If things don't work out for him in the rotation, he could have the stuff and 'guts' to work as a closer perhaps. Unless I'm mistaken, it's not like he relies on a ton of different pitches.
Carlos Ruiz comes to mind with his .400 OBP last year.
Pretty bold talk of McNutt.
What is his prospects for major league performance over the next 2+ years?
ie- in a league where you can keep players up to 3 years, is this someone to draft this year?
good read. been enjoying the entire series of articles.
Gwynn + Davey Lopes - Thames/Gibbons being good players = good cheap value in a NL league. Not to mention, LA doesn't have a ton of options for hitting 1 or 2 this year besides the injury prone Furcal.
but my worry is more about Sands or another player getting called up if the Dodgers fall out of the race in summer.
How much do you worry about someone like F-Rod at closer?
His option vests with a certain number of games finished. The Mets ownership could shed payroll. The team itself isn't as good. [Santana out, Beltran old, holes at 2b, C, back of rotation]
Good player - yes.
But is the risk worth it?
regarding Mesoraco - most folks looking to draft him are in a keeper or dynasty league. The write-up talks about potential holes in his swing as he faces pitchers in AAA or the NL.
But what sort of player are we looking at for 2012, 2013?
With Dusty's love of rookies, he's at best looking at splitting time 50/50 with Hannigan next year. [Hernandez is signed to just a 1yr deal]
btw - love the article. well written.
I'm sure that when Gamel is 29 y/o, and a minor league free agent, the Buccos will scoop him up and proclaim him their 'power hitting 1B' of the future.
heck, I'd be happy if the Pirates dealt Doumit for Jeff Keppinger. Cedeno sucks, and has nobody to push him this year, nor any alternatives for if Walker struggles.
agreed w/ evo34.
will become more important as roles are defined and battles won.
ie - say EY jr wins the 2b job, he'd vault over and decrease the value of a number of 2b types
Seems like a bunch of the Rockies pitchers aren't highly rated here or elsehwere on this site. Is their park that much of a variable?
With rose-colored glasses on I can see.... Ubaldo tiring after throwing lots of pitches in the 1st half, DelaRosa taking a while to truely bounce back after his finger injury, Hammel is an annual 'sleeper', and Chacin had a good begining to his young career.
Or should I just wise-up and realize this is why I'm subscribed to this site and go with the numbers projected here?
been in a 23 man active roster league for a while.
What's the odds on Nyjer Morgan bouncing back? I know he may sit versus leftys this year, and his HRs/RBIs are non-existant.
But I see 70-80 runs, good avg in the past, good BABIP traditionally... and upside of anywhere from 30-45 steals.
I know how the Rockies home field has played in the past as well as recently. But it seems like their pitchers have a pretty grim forecast. Pretty much every pitcher's ERA rising, some by over a run.
with his K% rising 3 years in a row, and his SB dropping 3 years in a row, and he hits behind Braun/Fielder so less runs scored.... doesn't that make him valuable only in two categories for fantasy?
It's very reasonable to project about 25 HRs, and good RBIs... but I wouldn't bet more than 5-7 steals and definate drop in Avg from last year.
"Try not to let the excitement of the NL Central's basement keep you from finishing this article."
got a good chuckle there.
All the data, stats, and projections are great.
But what about that Hanrahan and Lyons have both failed in previous attempts at closing. Hanrahan wasn't even the main piece in the Milledge/Hanrahan for Morgan/Burnett deal, arguably the 4th best player in that deal at that time.
What about the mental part of it? Lots of guys stumble over mental hurdles whether pressure hitting cleanup, closing games, failure to perform in the clutch, etc.
Is it me, or does Niese seem to be a much better value this year over Happ? Niese has better infield defense, better home field, better K/9 and BB/9, probably a better offense to support him for wins, and a better bullpen behind him.
Neither will be a star, or someone you build around. But am I over-estimating Niese? Niese seems like a pretty good value at his $5 NL only price?
I believe that Kevin Hart was as well. Read in the newspaper that he was projected to start in AAA to begin the year.
Milledge seemingly hit nothing but grounders either up the middle, or between SS and 3B that went for singles. Power was non-existant.
His defense was so bad, people in Pittsburgh openly wondered how he was ever considered a centerfielder. Poor angles, lapses in judgement in the field. Lack of fundamentals.... though guess that happens when you're pegged for stardom so early on and just put it on cruise-control.
although he did seem to be a 'good guy' while on the Buccos.
J Buck [Fla catcher], Mets catchers, P Janish, E Young jr, S Drew
Carlos Pena, Jason Bay, Nyjer Morgan, Roger Bernadina
Every team that hopes of contending needs 6 MLB starting pitchers. especially with the questions marks surrounding their rotation. As mentioned earlier, getting Garza is as much about future years. Especially with Fukodome, Soriano, etc leaving. Also, don't discount the need to show to the fans your trying so you can keep selling tickets.
same goes for D Young in the infield. He's a good switch-hitting bench stick, but crap in the field.
Nice to hear the 'human' side of a ballplayer that played during the Pirates of my youth.
Bob 'round tripper' Kipper. At least to my dad's comments, seemed like everytime he entered a game, we'd worry about that lead.
What do you think the odds are that he'll play everyday? [and not sit vs lefties]
Who other than a recovering Blanks or Rizzo [who'll start in the minors] could take platoon ABs away?
heck, if he hits a dozen dingers, and 60 rbis he's worth more than that no matter how mediocre his avg/obp.