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Intersellar spoiler alert.
I quite enjoy them. They are fun and still manage to provide more info than "Not fantasy relevant".
I had a feeling something was up with that blurb haha. I blamed it on not having had any coffee yet.
Number 4 is no joke. I've been starting games an hour(ish) late on MLB tv and just jumping to the next half inning after the third out. Seriously I catch up to the broadcast by the 6th inning depending on the pace of the game.
sheesh! Reyes' season line now sits at 15 <span class="statdef"><a href="http://www.baseballprospectus.com/glossary/index.php?search=IP" onmouseover="doTooltip(event, jpfl_getStat('IP'))" onmouseout="hideTip()">IP</span></a> 3ER and 26K. At AAA no less...
Belt is super sneaky.
<span class="playerdef"><a href="http://www.baseballprospectus.com/card/card.php?id=67031">Nick Kingham</a></span> has completely fallen off the map then? Stupid TJ.
Also you make me hope for his floor projection... This isn't a mistake, just an observation.
I was really hoping Damion Carrol made an appearance here because I really like his headshot. That's a sweet #Mustache.
Looks like the Tigers decided to invalidate this list right away. Goodbye Betancourt, it was fun.
But Lincecum has a very violent delivery doesn't he? I always thought that was the reason people didn't think he'd last.
Just curious. Couldn't the nationals just lie about papelbon pitching the 9th to get him to waive his no trade clause? I can't believe their would be any repercussions. I don't know how valuable trading for an 8th inning guy would be, but I was surprised to see that as a stipulation by papelbon, and didn't think it could be enforced.
I got the impression they were implying that Reyes isn't long for Col and Story is still presumably the SS of the future.
I've been doing exactly this sort of thing for the last hour now. So cool to see this stuff. The thing I found most interesting was looking at the difference between <span class="statdef"><a href="http://www.baseballprospectus.com/glossary/index.php?search=FIP" onmouseover="doTooltip(event, jpfl_getStat('FIP'))" onmouseout="hideTip()">FIP</span></a> and <span class="statdef"><a href="http://www.baseballprospectus.com/glossary/index.php?search=DRA" onmouseover="doTooltip(event, jpfl_getStat('DRA'))" onmouseout="hideTip()">DRA</span></a>. There are some large discrepancies. Also fun to look at was the players where FIP predicted an increase in <span class="statdef"><a href="http://www.baseballprospectus.com/glossary/index.php?search=ERA" onmouseover="doTooltip(event, jpfl_getStat('ERA'))" onmouseout="hideTip()">ERA</span></a> and DRA a decrease, and vice versa. I really want xFIP in my spreadsheet instead of FIP but am way too lazy and excited to put that dataset together.
But where is Vogelbach going to play? Oak's DH? That's always the hardest part for me when figuring out his value. For his team, that position has a log jam, and also that position doesn't even exist.
I honestly came here expecting an <span class="playerdef"><a href="http://www.baseballprospectus.com/card/card.php?id=70397">Austin Hedges</a></span> related article.
This article was much better than an Austin Hedges related article.
<span class="playerdef"><a href="http://www.baseballprospectus.com/card/card.php?id=68520">Kris Bryant</a></span>'s team must not have played. Almost seems wrong coming in here and not seeing a Bryant homer.
I don't get the Humbert Sanchez reference, and google wasn't helpful. Can someone enlighten me?
Either way I like what you did there with that write-up.
Belt hit 12 hr's in about 1/3 of a season's worth of plate appearances in 2014. That pace would have put him well over 25. Not to mention he was injured for a good deal of it.
I know that this sort of hyberbole isn't all that constructive, but if you could entertain me. Do you think Giolito could be a #4 on most teams if he were called up to the majors right now?
If you plug Castellanos' batted ball data into the xBABIP spreadsheet you can see that he is expected to have a .366 BABIP. The kid is a line drive machine which is why that number is so high. I agree with all of what you said there, but there's a chance his BABIP doesn't regress.
In all fairness this is heavily correlated and perhaps even caused by his team not playing a game yesterday.
The curveball video is private.
Does perceived proximity to the majors comes into play? For instance a pitcher with #4 upside that can be pitching in the show next year might be more valuable than a pitcher with a #2 ceiling that would be 4 years away.
you say that like it is bad thing! "Baby don't hurt me-No more"
"(which, for dubious reasons, also mandates a suspension for minor leaguers)"
I've heard a number of people take issue with the substance abuse suspensions such as this one, although I never have gotten a solid answer as to why. Do you consider the reasons dubious because Major Leaguers don't get a suspension for this? Is is that you don't think the list of banned substances makes sense, or is arbitrary? Is there more to it?
I loved every part of Singelton's writeup.
That is absurd in the most awesome way.
Does anyone know Hamilton's home to first time? I looked all day yesterday and couldn't seem to find it anywhere.
Great! That's what I figured. Thanks!
Within their respective sections are these players ordered deliberately? for example in order of sexiness? Or should I just ignore the order?
I still can't take this Carlos Santana at third stuff seriously. Is this for real?
The stats used are based on the PECOTA projections for each player. These are the stat lines that are in the annual.
This question is answered in the article.
Best burn on DD. Classic... LMAO. The timing on that is great considering that I just read the critique on him that is the Tigers team outlook in the Annual. BP has been taking everything to a new level.
This IS Carlos Santana the catcher were talking about right? I mean I know that Tigers pretended Cabrera could play third, but this guy is a catcher. Is this for real or are they just playing him there for fun because it's the summer league?
Apparently he had a tumor removed from the eye as a child, which is why it looks like it does. When he signed with the Dodgers were rumors about him not being able to see well out of it, but they turned out to be false.
I was just about to type a very similar comment when I saw yours. It looks swollen shut to me. But who knows maybe he was winking at the camera person.
I get the feeling that PECOTA does not like Matt Adams this year.
Adalberto is a sweet name.
Good Stuff! I really enjoyed how you didn't adhere to the format..
I believe Alex Meyer plays for the Twins now.
I tried to find a counterpoint to this. I cannot. Dirks is the superior batter against righties and has had more value and range in left field. I don't understand Leland's obsession with Kelly.
Reading this post and using my excellent hindsight has made a smile appear on my face.
I'm sad that I can't up-vote this one...
That is a tough call for me. I'd be very surprised to see Joyce continue providing the same level of power he has so far.
I usually don't try to argue about WAR. As Colin said it is an estimation. I can't defend it with numbers (I don't know the formula well enough) or therefor logic, and it is difficult to get non-saber involved people to understand that.
I usually just talk about stats that are quantifiable and "see-able", and give examples of how other stats are flawed. Usually I can work this into a "stat x should clearly then have a higher correlation with being a better player than stat y" sort of argument.
I can communicate these sorts of things much more easily than WAR. And also WAR is but 1 stat in a field where there have been dozens created. Any point one is attempting to make where WAR supports the argument will almost certainly be supported by many other stats.
Great stuff, as usual. When considering the cost per WARP though, aren't we ignoring the fact that player salaries are rising pretty steadily? These wins will become much more expensive in the later years of the deal no?
Alvarez clearly has value because of his power, but he butchers your batting average. Did Chisenhall get any consideration for HM? Do you think there is any chance he could be more valuable than Alvarez this year or next? Thanks for the article!
Considering that Sano is so young for his level, if his hit tool doesn't make the necessary improvements against more advanced pitching, he still has time to repeat and not actually be old for that level right?
#want indeed. Well done.
Obviously not the place but how does Giolito compare to not only the other draft picks but current prospects in upside? Unless you're Strasburg or Harper I can't see someone being put on this list, but does this sort of comparison exist?
Is there some sort of publicly available retrosheet parser? I find it very cool that you can specify data set modifiers like completely ignoring intentional walks. Is this an in-house creation or some modification of publicly available parsers? Either way, this was a great article.
I keep trying to poke holes in LaHair, but it isn't that easy. His xBabip comes out to .355 on the season. It is propped up by an insane HR/FB rate (37%). If I change that rate to something even low (15%) he still comes in at a .340 xBabip, which is close to his career rate. Even with an adjustment in his Babip his numbers will still look pretty good. I guess I'm saying that I believe?
I'm really hoping that Tigers get Fielder. They can play him at SS, and move Peralta over to 3rd.
If it were up to me, and obviously defense comes in to play here I think I would take (I am not an expert): Mesoraco, Conger, Montero, Lavarnway, Perez, Flowers. Montero and Lavarnway have defensive concerns that worry me, and therefore lower their value for me. I am not familiar enough with Rosario to rank him, sorry.
Well done. This was an enjoyable read.
After reading this I still don't quite understand which Milton Bradley is making this thing. But very good, I would probably buy it if it weren't for the 90% of the time that the game play is disappointing.
I'm curious about the aging curve of pitchers vs batters. I just generally assume that players performance begin to decline at age 30, but have seen a decent number of pitchers violate my belief recently (they are being good later in their lives). Is there an article somewhere that discusses this, or someone who has ran these numbers? I would like to see it in either case.
There is only one Twin on that list...